This is my favorite play of the week. Jacksonville is 6-2, has won 5 of its last 6 games and just routed Baltimore 33-10. The Jaguars then went all in at the deadline, adding DT Jordan Davis, S Jessie Bates III and DT Davon Godchaux. Tennessee went the other way, trading its best defender, DT Jeffery Simmons, to Chicago, and the 1-7 Titans gave up 43 points and 510 yards in Cincinnati in their first game without him.
The gap between these teams is massive. Jacksonville outscores opponents by 13.5 points per game (1st in the NFL), while Tennessee is outscored by 6.9 (27th in the NFL). The Jaguars rank 4th in scoring (28.6) and 2nd in scoring defense (15.1), while the Titans rank 28th in scoring (18.0) and 31st in total defense. Jacksonville's 3rd-ranked third-down offense (46.4%) faces a Tennessee defense that ranks 25th on third down, and Trevor Lawrence has 18 touchdowns against 4 interceptions with a 111.7 passer rating. The Jaguars have also won and covered 4 straight meetings, beating Tennessee 25-3 and 41-7 last season.
Tennessee is 4-4 ATS, Tony Pollard has topped 100 rushing yards in back-to-back games, and Jacksonville RB Bhayshul Tuten (ankle) is questionable. But Cam Ward has only 6 touchdown passes in 8 games, and LG Peter Skoronski (hamstring) and RT JC Latham (finger) are both questionable against a reinforced Jaguars front. Once Jacksonville gets ahead, Tennessee doesn't have the passing attack to catch up. I'll lay the 10.5 points with Jacksonville; I’d make this a 5-star play if the number dips below 10.
Jaguars vs Titans prediction: Jaguars -10.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing, playable up to -12.5.
Jacksonville's defense is the main reason I like the Under. The Jaguars allow just 15.1 points per game and rank 6th in third-down defense, and they added Davis, Bates and Godchaux at the deadline. Tennessee's offense ranks 30th in total yards at 284.9 per game, and Ward has only 6 touchdown passes in 8 games. The Titans could also be without WR Carnell Tate (shoulder), their leading receiver with 413 yards, and RB Tyjae Spears (knee).
Game script points the same way. If Jacksonville builds a lead, it has every reason to lean on the run game and shorten the second half. Tennessee's loss in Cincinnati turned into a shootout, but Joe Burrow and the Bengals are a far more explosive passing attack than Jacksonville's, and the Jaguars' offense has been efficient rather than reckless, with Lawrence throwing just 4 interceptions all season.
This total opened at 45.5 and has ticked up to 46.5, so I'm getting a slightly better number than the opener. The Over is 4-4 in both teams' games this season, and Jacksonville's 2 wins over Tennessee last season finished with 28 and 48 points. With Jacksonville's defense controlling the game, I expect it to finish in the low 40s.
Jaguars vs Titans prediction: Under 46.5 (-108) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 45.5.
