The total has dropped from 50.5 into the upper 40s, creating what I believe is a solid opportunity. The Rams rank among the NFL leaders in both total and passing offense, and Washington's secondary has struggled against quality passing attacks all season. If Los Angeles reaches the upper 20s or low 30s, which feels well within reach, the Commanders won't be able to play conservatively, and we’ll likely see their version of gunslinging.
The spread has also moved toward Washington, suggesting the betting world believes the Commanders can keep this game competitive. If there’s any truth to that, they'll need to contribute their share of points. The Rams could easily see 30 points against this Washington defense, and I don’t believe Jayden Daniels and crew won’t respond, at least for three and a half quarters. The Commanders have shown improvement since their young quarterback has returned healthy, and they arguably still believe they can make the playoffs.
While I still love Los Angeles on the side, the game script screams points. The Rams should do most of the heavy lifting, but Washington has enough offensive talent to help push this total over the number. I see something in the neighborhood of 30-23 or even 28-21. I have the Rams taking the game, but both teams should do enough damage to send this one over 48 points.
Rams vs Commanders prediction: Over 48 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.5 (-110).
The Washington Commanders have shown flashes of being competitive and truly look like they are improving, but this feels like a difficult matchup against one of the more complete squads they'll face. Los Angeles comes into this game with an offense that ranks among the NFL's best, sitting fourth in total yards and sixth in passing yards per game. Meanwhile, Washington's defense has struggled to slow opposing passing attacks, ranking near the bottom of the league against the pass. That could be a dangerous combination when facing Matthew Stafford, who has shown he can hit just about any target almost anywhere on the field. Not to mention the fact that, even though Davante Adams is still out, Stafford still has Puka Nacua.
The bigger concern for Washington may be on the offensive side of the ball. While the Commanders have looked like a true threat at times, their offense has been inconsistent, particularly through the air. Los Angeles fields one of the league's stronger defenses, ranking near the top five in both passing yards and total yards allowed. Washington also ranks near the bottom of the NFL in third-down conversions, a weakness that could lead to several stalled drives against a disciplined Rams defense.
I simply see too many advantages favoring Los Angeles. The Rams possess the superior offense, the more reliable defense, and the quarterback better equipped to exploit the opposing secondary, especially one that sits near the bottom with pass yards allowed. Washington may have enough in them to hang around early, but over four quarters the Rams likely create separation. The team with the reigning MVP minus less than two field goals, I’ll take the Rams to cover.
Rams vs Commanders prediction: Rams -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5 (-110).
