Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Odds and Stanley Cup Playoffs Game 5 Picks for Today, 04/29/26

The Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning will contest a crucial Game 5 in their Eastern Conference first-round series on Wednesday night in Tampa. With all to play for at 2-2, my Canadiens vs Lighting pick is Under 5.5. To say that this has been a defensive-minded series would be an understatement. There have not been any shutouts — not even close — but there also haven’t been any scoring binges. Three consecutive matchups have ended with 3-2 scorelines, including 2 that went into overtime at 2-2. Only Game 1 produced more than 5 goals, and the 7 scored in Montreal’s 4-3 series-opening win were largely due to powerplays. A whopping 5 came with the man advantage. In fact, just 13 goals have been scored at 5-on-5 through 4 games; that’s 3.25 per game. If the 2 sides can stay out of the sin bin, another low-scoring affair should be in the cards.

Montreal’s defense has been outstanding in front of goalie Jakub Dobes. Only once has the 24-year-old Czech seen more than 23 shots, and Tampa Bay has put a total of just 37 shots on net over the past 2 contests. Similarly, the Canadiens’ attack has been reduced to fewer than 20 shots on 2 of the 4 occasions. Bolts veteran goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been stellar, which is nothing new for him in the playoffs. The 2-time Stanley Cup winner has allowed just 6 regulation goals over the last 3 games. This comes on the heels of a regular season in which Vasilevskiy went 39-15-4 with a 2.31 goals-against average and .912 save percentage. He is a big reason why Habs star Cole Caufield, who was responsible for 51 goals and 37 points this season, has been held to only 1 goal in this series and just 2 total points in the past 3 outings.

Canadiens vs Lightning Game 5 prediction: Under 5.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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