The eyes of the sporting public will be primarily fixed elsewhere on Sunday with the World Cup Final taking place at New York/New Jersey Stadium but, before that unfolds, the Champion Golfer of the Year will be crowned at the conclusion of the 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. Golf's 4 Majors all have their idiosyncrasies, but there is nothing like the challenge presented by the British Open, where conditions can dictate scoring to huge extents, and where course management and links experience tend to make the difference after 72 holes.
Birkdale, considered one of the fairest tests on the British Open rota - at least as fair as links golf can get - last hosted the Open Championship in 2017, when Jordan Spieth sprayed his ball all over Merseyside but still prevailed in a memorable Sunday duel with Matt Kuchar. Spieth's victory at -12 came 9 years after Padraig Harrington claimed the 2nd of his 2 Claret Jugs, winning at +3 in a tournament battered by high winds and persistent rain.
With significantly better weather forecast this year, scoring should be closer to that of the 2017 edition, although firm and fast conditions look guaranteed given the recent UK heatwave, and that will put a premium on short game and a need to minimize mistakes on approach.
Let's break down my expert golf predictions and the latest odds for the 2026 British Open this week. I cashed a +8800 winner on the Scottish Open last week with Tom Kim, so ride that momentum into the Open Championship!
Odds courtesy of bet365 and available at time of publishing.
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Harrington was the last man to successfully defend the Claret Jug, and Scottie Scheffler will be hoping that lightning strikes twice at Birkdale as he bids to double up after last year's triumph at Royal Portrush. However, Scheffler makes the journey to Southport after missing the cut at the Scottish Open, marking a first missed weekend in almost 4 years for the world number one.
As a result, Scheffler is now +700 to win this week, having been +400 in the wake of last year's win, and there are more attractive options towards the front of the betting market, none more so than Masters champion Rory McIlroy, who will feel he has unfinished business with the Open.
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
After some mediocre efforts by his enormously high standards following his 2nd Augusta win, it was easy to swerve McIlroy at the Scottish Open last week, but the Northern Irishman sprang out of the gates and was the most likely winner at halfway, before firing a 3rd-round 73 to drop out of contention.
Given that the 3rd round at Renaissance Club was marked by delays that saw play suspended until Sunday morning, McIlroy's mid-event struggles can be excused, and there was a lot to like about how he recovered in the final round, firing 8 birdies in a closing 64 and finishing in a share of 7th behind Tom Kim.
Back-to-back Masters wins have lifted a weight off McIlroy's shoulders, and while that did not translate to a win at Portrush 12 months ago, he competed under the pressure of an expectant home crowd and did well to finish 7th.
That was McIlroy's 7th top-10 finish in his last nine Open appearances, including at Birkdale in 2017, and it's perhaps significant that his 1 triumph in this tournament came at nearby Hoylake in 2014. 12 years on, he looks well placed for a repeat of that performance.
McIlroy drove the ball well in Scotland and his often underrated short game looked in sparkling form. If he can tidy up his iron play, he fully deserves to be challenging Scheffler for favouritism this week and it would be a surprise if he can't at least finish in the top 10 once again.
He is almost always the center of attention, but the spotlight will fall on local hero Tommy Fleetwood, who learned the game in this part of the world, and while the Englishman has clear claims, he hasn't won this year and that familiarity with Birkdale is factored too heavily into his odds.
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Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Instead of Fleetwood, his Ryder Cup teammate Viktor Hovland could emerge as McIlroy's biggest challenger. A top-class ball-striker at his best, Hovland is known for constantly tinkering with his swing but, for once, seems happy with the state of his game as he seeks that elusive Major breakthrough.
The 28-year-old took down Scottie Scheffler in a playoff at the Travelers Championship last month, then had an ideal prep in the Scottish Open, finishing 13th after carding 69-64 over the weekend. 5 previous performances in the British Open have resulted in form figures of 12-4-13-MC-63, and while those 2 most recent appearances are a concern, there is no doubt he's capable of contending again for the Claret Jug if he is at his best.
Find out our expert's British Open first round leader best bets and FRL predictions for this week, featuring picks at +4400, +5600 and +6700 odds!
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The same can be said for Robert MacIntyre, who fell away in the final round in his homeland on Sunday before playing the final 8 holes of the Scottish Open in 4-under-par to bag a share of 3rd place.
While the Scot would've been disappointed not to mount a serious Sunday challenge, having hit the lead in the early stages of the final round, there were still positives to draw from a performance in which he led an elite field in strokes-gained approach. MacIntyre has never missed a cut in the Open and 3 top-10 finishes from 6 starts underline his suitability for this test.
Lock in our British Open prop bets for this week, targeting Top Finishes and Top Nationality plays and including picks at +1300 and +4000
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Lastly, it's worth taking a shot on Cameron Smith as a longshot pick. He is the man who held off both McIlroy and Hovland 4 years ago, and is showing signs that he's still capable of the magic that helped him claim the Claret Jug.
There is no doubt that Smith has regressed since his switch to LIV Golf, but the Aussie was 7th at the PGA Championship in May and 5th at LIV Andalucia the following month.
His short-game skills remain elite and, with Birkdale far from penal off the tee, this could be a week when he competes again at the top of a Major leaderboard.
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