Golf picks: Tour Championship predictions & best bets from expert Joe Champion
The 2026 PGA Tour season concludes this weekend with its traditional finale as East Lake Golf Club hosts the Tour Championship. The top 30 on the FedEx Cup standings will compete for a bumper $40 million prize and, with the starting-strokes format scrapped as of last year, the assignment is simple: shoot the lowest 72-hole score in Atlanta and take home the $10m winner's check.
The PGA Tour has never quite nailed the Tour Championship format, and the current iteration of the East Lake curtain-closer is on borrowed time with the event set to be contested as matchplay from 2028.
Let's break down my expert golf predictions for the Tour Championship this week, starting by looking at the odds.
Tour Championship odds
Odds courtesy of bet365 and available at time of publishing.
- Scottie Scheffler +330
- Rory McIlroy +800
- Xander Schauffele +1300
- Ludvig Aberg +1700
- Patrick Cantlay +1700
- Wyndham Clark +1700
- Cameron Young +1900
- Collin Morikawa +1900
- Sam Burns +1900
- Tommy Fleetwood +1900
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2100
- Chris Gotterup +2200
- Si Woo Kim +2200
- Hideki Matsuyama +2400
- Russell Henley +2400
- Viktor Hovland +2700
- JJ Spain +3700
- Gary Woodland +4500
- Justin Rose +4500
- Robert MacIntyre +4500
- Ryan Gerard +4500
- Adam Scott +5000
- Tom Kim +5000
- Jacob Bridgeman +5500
- Min Woo Lee +6500
- Alex Smalley +6600
- Kristoffer Reitan +6600
- Akshay Bhatia +8500
- Alex Fitzpatrick +9000
- Ryan Fox +10000
Scottie Scheffler remains the man to beat despite his lackluster performance in the BMW Championship, while he is followed by Rory McIlroy. Last week's BMW winner Wyndham Clark is +1700 along with runner-up Patrick Cantlay and Ludvig Aberg.
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Can Scheffler or McIlroy win the Tour Championship?
FedEx Cup leader Scottie Scheffler dominates the standings heading into the final tournament of the season, but the 29 players who have had inferior years will all start on a level playing field, and he could again have his pocket picked, as was the case last year when Tommy Fleetwood won in Georgia to claim the big prize.
The starting-strokes format was far from perfect – particularly for bettors who had to weigh up whether to bet in the outright or 72-hole markets – but it did at least reward those who had produced consistent results all season.
Scheffler, a winner in 2024 when coming into the event with that handicap advantage, is favorite again but it is hard to know if he will be at his best, having battled through illness when 12th at last week's BMW Championship.
Rory McIlroy shook off a poor St. Jude Championship to finish third at Bellerive last week and is a three-time East Lake champion. However, he finished only 12th in 72-hole scoring in 2024 after the Donald Ross-designed course underwent a restoration, and he was 23rd in last year's Tour Championship.
Tour Championship best bet: Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The current course set-up clearly works for Patrick Cantlay, who was a runner-up behind Fleetwood at East Lake 12 months ago and second at Bellerive last week.
Cantlay won the 2021 Tour Championship, shooting the fourth-best 72-hole score, and he will be desperate to put an end to a victory drought that stretches back more than four years.
That is the only real negative for the Californian, who was brilliant with his irons in Missouri, gaining seven strokes on an elite field on approach, and he looks a solid bet to prevail this week.
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Tour Championship prediction: Adam Scott (+5500)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Evergreen Australian Adam Scott could also threaten to win at generous odds, having finished in the top 10 on four of his last five East Lake trips over a 12-year period.
A cold putter held Scott back when 16th at Bellerive last week, but his ball-striking was excellent, and he looks like a title threat if he returns to the putting form he showed at Southwind.
