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2026 US Open First Round Leader Picks: Best Bets & FRL Predictions
PGA

2026 US Open First Round Leader Picks: Best Bets & FRL Predictions

James Mason
James MasonAuthor
UpdatedJun 17, 2026
Reading time3 min

The 126th US Open begins on Thursday, and each member of the stacked 156-player field will be hoping to get off to a fast start at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, which stages this event for the 6th time and first since Brooks Koepka's triumph in 2018. One factor set to dominate this week is the wind, which is forecast to remain high throughout the 4 days of action in New York, with gusts potentially reaching 30-45mph in the afternoon on day one.

While the earlier starters are still expected to be affected by the wind, they should have a significant advantage over those going out later on Thursday. With that in mind, let's get into our US Open first round leader best bets and FRL predictions.

2026 US Open first-round leader best bet: Adam Scott (+6600)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.

Adam Scott is among the early starters on Thursday, going out at 8:03 am ET alongside Harris English and Nick Taylor, and the Australian can make the most of the slightly more benign conditions to set the pace on day one.

Precise approach play will be crucial to success this week, and the 2013 Masters champion leads in strokes gained approach on the PGA Tour, evidence of how sharp the irons have been.

Scott is also 23rd in bogey avoidance this season, and being able to limit the dropped shots around this difficult course will also play a pivotal part in determining the winner.

The 45-year-old signed off his last tournament at The Memorial with a superb round of 66, and having taken a couple of weeks to recharge the batteries, he should be ready to go from the off.

Check out our expert's US Open winner predictions and best bets for this week, featuring picks at +2000, +2150 and +7600!

2026 US Open first-round leader prediction: Keith Mitchell (+8000)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and bet365 at time of publishing.

Another player capable of making a quick start is Keith Mitchell, who finished 5th at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last month and warmed up for the Major with a tied-29th effort at the Canadian Open.

The American can blow hot and cold, but when he is on the money, he signs for some low scores, and he has managed 32 rounds in the 60s on the PGA Tour this season, leaving him joint-3rd in those standings.

Playing alongside Patrick Rodgers and Graeme McDowell at 7:19 am ET on Thursday, Mitchell is in the better half of the draw and can make the most of the friendlier scoring conditions.

Get the best odds on our Keith Mitchell and Jacob Bridgeman FRL best bets with bet365, where new users can receive $365 in bonus bets INSTANTLY by clicking here to sign up now and making their first $5 wager - win or lose!

2026 US Open first-round leader pick: Jacob Bridgeman (+8000)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.

One last player to consider in the first-round leader market is Jacob Bridgeman, who will be heading out on Thursday at 8:14 am ET alongside Max Greyserman and Brian Harman.

Bridgeman has signed for 33 rounds in the 60s this season, leaving him joint-top with Si Woo Kim, and the American has the ability to put a run of birdies together and make things happen.

It has been a year to remember for the 26-year-old, who broke his PGA Tour duck at the Genesis Invitational, and he heads into the US Open on the back of a tied-11th finish at the Canadian Open.

Sitting 28th in bogey avoidance, Bridgeman has the skills to negotiate his way around this course and make a solid start.

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