Golf picks: BMW Championship predictions & best bets from expert Joe Champion
Scottie Scheffler's winless run ended with an emphatic eight-shot triumph at the FedEx St. Jude Championship on Sunday, and the world number one is a strong favorite to win again in the BMW Championship. The top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings move on to Bellerive Country Club, which hosts the penultimate event of the season for the first time since 2008, before the top 30 at the conclusion of the BMW will head to East Lake for the Tour Championship.
Camilo Villegas won the sole BMW Championship to take place at Bellerive, but the Missouri course is best known for staging the 2018 PGA Championship, when Brooks Koepka claimed the first of his three Wanamaker trophies. Measuring 7,448 yards, Bellerive is long for a par-70, and despite a dry build-up to this year's championship, it will favor those who are able to drive the ball long and straight off the tee. Heavily contoured greens put pressure on approach play and short game, too, so an all-round test is expected. Let's break down my expert golf predictions for the BMW Championship this week.
BMW Championship odds
Odds courtesy of bet365 and available at time of publishing.
- Scottie Scheffler +290
- Rory McIlroy +1500
- Tommy Fleetwood +1700
- Ludvig Aberg +1900
- Sam Burns +1900
- Xander Schauffele +1900
- Cameron Young +2100
- Matt Fitzpatrick +2100
- Hideki Matsuyama +2400
- Si Woo Kim +2700
- Viktor Hovland +2700
- Chris Gotterup +3000
- Patrick Cantlay +3000
- Collin Morikawa +3200
- Justin Thomas +3200
Scottie Scheffler sets the benchmark when it comes to all-round brilliance, but his Southwind heroics mean that he is shorter than +300 at a venue where he has no previous competitive experience to call upon. He would love to double up as a defending BMW champion, having won at Caves Valley last year, but he'll also be thinking ahead to East Lake and the Tour Championship.
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BMW Championship best bet: Ludvig Aberg (+2000)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Everyone not named Scottie Scheffler is at least +1600 to win the BMW Championship, and it's worth taking on the favorite with 2 elite ball-strikers in Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele, both of whom finished well for a share of seventh place at Southwind last week, performances that suggest a win is not far away.
Aberg was under par for three of his four rounds at Southwind - a poor Saturday 74 proving his undoing - but he drove the ball superbly all week, leading an elite field in strokes-gained off-the-tee at a course where he had not contended previously.
The Swede has had a frustrating year, but there are few better from tee to green and Bellerive sets up well for him.
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BMW Championship prediction: Xander Schauffele (+2000)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It's also worth keeping the faith with Schauffele, who was both long and accurate off the tee at Southwind, continuing the form he showed when runner-up at the Rocket Classic at the start of the month.
Schauffele has positive memories of Bellerive, finishing 35th in the 2018 PGA when still finding his feet at the top level, and he returns as one of the most complete players on the PGA Tour.
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BMW Championship longshot pick: Justin Rose (+7800)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The same is true for Justin Rose, who fired four rounds in the 60s to finish 19th at Bellerive eight years ago.
The Englishman was treading water at Southwind before finding top form on Sunday, shooting an early-morning 64 which will have him arriving in Missouri with renewed confidence.
