College Basketball Picks

The Duke Blue Devils and the Texas Tech Red Raiders will play inside Madison Square Garden on Saturday night for a non-conference showdown. There should be numerous Duke fans that travel to the Garden for this game, giving them a great advantage. The Blue Devils have yet to lose this season, and I do not see them losing for the first time here. The spread is set at Duke -8.5 and the Blue Devils are my best bet on this game.

Duke should be able to use its defense to make it hard on Texas Tech to score. The Blue Devils are led by freshman phenom Cameron Boozer, and I see him winning the matchup against Texas Tech star JT Toppin. Texas Tech runs their offense through Toppin, but it might be hard for him to get going with Duke’s amazing interior defense. According to KenPom, Duke’s defense is ranked #1 in effective field goal percentage, #2 in two-point percentage and #3 in adjusted efficiency. They have one of the best defenses in the country and I see that being the difference here. Take Duke to win and cover while this number is below double digits.

Texas Tech vs Duke prediction: Duke -8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -10.

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The Xavier Musketeers hit the road for the nation’s capital looking to stay hot in this series. Xavier has picked up victories in six of the past seven meetings in the series, although Georgetown has covered each of the past 5 meetings. The underdog is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 5 in the series, and 6-3 ATS across the past 9 encounters. For the Musketeers, they’re a solid 6-2 ATS in the past 8 games, and transfer portal addition Tre Carroll from FAU is playing good basketball lately. This Xavier team was crushed last time out against Creighton, but it has won five of the past six outings. Look for the embarrassed Musketeers to come out with a chip on their collective shoulders.

The Hoyas won and covered at Marquette last time out, 78-69, as a 7-point underdog, but they’re still just 1-6 ATS in the past seven games, and they’re split the previous six outings 3-3 SU. Defense has been a struggle at times, allowing 74 or more points in 6 of the past 8 outings. Xavier should be able to pick apart Georgetown’s shaky perimeter defense, as the Hoyas are jus 196th in the nation with 33.2 percent allowed on triples. That’s where Xavier will get the job done on the road.

Xaviers vs Georgetown prediction: Xavier +4.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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The San Diego State Aztecs are 6-3 SU and will take their 3-game winning streak to Phoenix to play the top-ranked Arizona Wildcats in what is technically a neutral-site game despite being in close proximity to Tucson. The Wildcats are a perfect 10-0 SU, and they pay bettors more often than not – covering the spread in 7 of those 10 contests. The Aztecs are not nearly as profitable against the number, covering in just 3 of their 9 contests. 

The Wildcats look like title contenders early on, as they are highly efficient both offensively and defensively – sitting top-10 on both ends of the floor per KenPom. Their elite size makes them lethal at and around the rim, on the glass, and in their defensive sets, which figures to overwhelm the Aztecs. Outside of Magoon Gwath – a great shot-blocker in his own right – San Diego State does not have much size to contest the likes of Koa Peat, Motiejus Krivas, and Tobe Awaka.

Expecting Arizona to dominate the glass on both ends, and with San Diego State regressing defensively from what it usually is under Brian Dutcher, the Aztecs are going to need to continue their red-hot shooting from the perimeter to keep this one close. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening against a long defense like Arizona that can contest almost any shot on the floor. At near 41.5%, the Aztecs are the 4th-best three-point shooting team in the country, but I don’t think it’s sustainable. Not to mention, SDSU is 285th in turnover rate. 

San Diego State vs Arizona prediction: Arizona Wildcats -14.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -15.

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The St. John’s Red Storm and the Kentucky Wildcats will face off in Atlanta on Saturday as part of the CBS Sports Classic. There are lots of storylines to unpack here. There is the coaching matchup—Rick Pitino coached Mark Pope at Kentucky in the 90s, and they won a national title together. Then there is the Atlanta angle—mark that down as a Kentucky home game, and they even like to call it “Catlanta”. Listen, I have been to Atlanta when Kentucky played an NCAA regional there, and the Wildcat fans took over downtown, and were even crushing beers while tailgating in my hotel lobby (but that is a story for another day). And then, of course, there is the fact that both teams have struggled painfully against good opponents this year, and both really do need a quality win. In this spot, I am taking the points with the Wildcats at +3.

Kentucky’s struggles early in the season largely had to do with injuries. This team has a lot of talent and a lot of depth, but they haven’t been healthy in several weeks. They are starting to get there, and you could see the difference in the Indiana game most recently. They will shoot better as they go, but in this matchup, it will be the defense and rebounding that need to make the difference. St. John’s has been playing fast, but the Wildcats are happy to do that too. St. John’s is attacking the rim, but Kentucky defends well in the paint. There seem to be several factors that favor Kentucky in this game, so I am taking the points with the Cats in the Big A as Kentucky starts to work bac to health.

St. John’s vs Kentucky prediction: Kentucky Wildcats +3 (-110) available at the time of publishing; Playable to the Money Line.

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The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Ohio State Buckeyes will meet in Atlanta for a non-conference matchup on Saturday afternoon. The game will be played inside State Farm Arena for the CBS Sports Classic that is held every year with these two programs. St. John’s has replaced UCLA in the event and will play Kentucky beforehand. The spread is in favor in North Carolina here and I believe that they will cover that spread.

The spread is currently North Carolina -3.5 and that is my best bet of the game. The Tar Heels are 10-1 on the season and have beaten top tier talent like Kansas and Kentucky. Senior guard Seth Trimble is expected to be back for the game on Saturday and could be a difference maker for North Carolina. North Carolina’s defense and size could cause Ohio State issues in this one. According to KenPom, North Carolina’s defense is ranked #5 nationally in two-point percentage, #5 in effective field goal percentage and #22 adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State lost to Pittsburgh, who is a below average ACC team, back in November and beat West Virginia by just one in double overtime in their last game. They have not shown that they are a good team yet, so North Carolina should be able to cover the spread here. Take North Carolina.

North Carolina vs Ohio State prediction: North Carolina Tar Heels -3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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After a tough overtime loss to Vanderbilt, the Tigers will look to get back on track against Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon. Memphis struggled shooting the ball against Vandy, hitting just 35.9% from the floor, and they’ll need to be more efficient offensively if they want to keep things close with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is coming off back-to-back wins and they hope they can get their season turned around as they find themselves at the bottom of the SEC standings. 

Memphis will look to Dug McDaniel to help lead his team in this matchup. On the season, the senior is averaging 14.5 points, 5.5 assists, and 3.2 rebounds per game. For Mississippi State, Josh Hubbard leads the team with 21.6 points, 3.9 assists, and 2.7 rebounds per game. The junior is coming off his best game of the season, dropping 34 points against LIU. According to KenPom, Memphis holds the advantage defensively as they rank 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to Mississippi State who ranks 95th. The Tigers don’t have a lot of depth on their team with just two players averaging double digits, but they have played significantly harder teams than the Bulldogs this year. Memphis has faced then-No. 1 Purdue (lost by 9), then-No. 11 Louisville (lost by 26), and then-No. 13 Vanderbilt (lost by 7). Mississippi State has played just one ranked opponent, then-No. 16 Iowa State, where they lost by 16. Memphis may not look as good on paper, but I think the Tigers can keep this game close and limit the damage done by Hubbard with their defensive pressure, making Memphis my best bet of the day. 

Memphis vs Mississippi State prediction: Memphis Tigers +3.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Arkansas Razorbacks and the Houston Cougars will meet in a somewhat-random neutral-site matchup at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ on Saturday evening, tipping off at 5:30 pm ET on CBS. The Razorbacks come into this non-conference showdown with a 9-2 SU record, and they treat bettors well – covering in 8 of 11 games thanks to their current 6-game ATS win streak. Meanwhile, Houston is 10-1 SU with its lone blemish coming against Tennessee in the Players Era, and though the Cougars are just 5-6 ATS, they have covered in 3 straight.

Under Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars are always extremely efficient defensively. They have been a top-10 team in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency every year since the 2020-2021 season, and much of the same is true this year. Houston is typically very good at limiting action around the rim and in the paint, so perimeter shooting is usually a must in order to have any chance against this bunch. In fact, Sampson’s Cougars have historically shown vulnerability against teams that can spread them out defensively. The Razorbacks can do just that, as they are 20th nationally in three-point percentage – knocking down more than 38% of perimeter attempts collectively as a team. Darius Acuff, Karter Knox, and Trevon Brazile all connect on more than 44% of perimeter attempts according to KenPom, and it’s Brazile that is the key to Arkansas’ success here. At 6’10”, his ability to stretch the floor should pull Joseph Tugler and Chris Cenac out of the paint more often than they would like. 

While Houston is very good defensively, the Cougars have been somewhat undisciplined this year. They currently rank 244th in free throw rate allowed this season, surrendering 26 free throws in games away from home. Arkansas can absolutely make Houston pay for its undisciplined defense, as the Hogs make more than 77% of their free throw attempts with multiple players above 80%. Houston will do everything in its power to keep Arkansas out of transition, but I still think John Calipari’s Razorbacks have enough here to at least keep this game close if they don’t win outright. 

Houston vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas Razorbacks +4.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +2. 

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It’s a big-time matchup as No. 21 Auburn gets ready to take on No. 6 Purdue at a neutral-site Indy Classic game. Both teams have a deep roster that’s loaded with talent, capable of putting up points, but this matchup will ultimately come down to defense. Auburn’s senior Keyshawn Hall, a transfer from UCF, is having himself a big year, averaging 20.9 points, and 8.8 rebounds per game and will keep this Boilermakers defense busy. The Tigers are averaging 86.5 points per game, slightly above Purdue who is averaging 84.6 points, but the defensive gap between these two teams is noticeable.

Auburn is just 1-3 against ranked opponents this season, and two of those losses came against then-No. 7 Michigan (30-point loss) and then-No. 2 Arizona (29-point loss). Purdue, on the other hand, is 2-1 against ranked opponents with their only loss coming against then-No. 10 Iowa State (23-point loss). Leading this Boilermakers team is Fletcher Loyer who is averaging 14.1 points and 2 rebounds per game. The big difference in this matchup is Purdue’s ability to constantly pressure their opponents in man-to-man coverage. We’ve seen Auburn struggle against top-tier teams this season, and they’re allowing 76.8 points per game compared to Purdue’s 67.1. The Tigers will look to get the Boilermakers into foul trouble, but they’re disciplined enough and are holding opponents to 40.4% shooting from the floor this season. Look for Purdue to shoot the ball at a high clip as they’re making 50.5% of their shots this season, and take care of business against Auburn on Saturday afternoon. 

Auburn vs Purdue prediction: Purdue -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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