College Football Picks

Christmas Eve will feature one college football bowl game, and it will be the California Bears taking on the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors in the Hawai’i Bowl. This will be the first time since 2019 that Hawai’i will compete in this bowl game, played on its home field. The Rainbow Warriors have a 5-4 record all time when playing in the Hawai’i Bowl. Their record this season was 8-4, and they won 2 of their last 4 games. Micah Alejado led Hawai’i’s offense this season with 2832 yards passing, 21 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Their defense was led by senior Jackie Johnson III, who finished the season with 7.5 sacks. Hawai’i’s best win this season was a 38-6 win against a San Diego State team that finished its season 9-3.

California finished 7-5, but lost 3 of their its 5 games. The Bears’ offense is led by freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who threw for 3117 yards, 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions this season. Cal’s defense was led by linebacker Cade Uluave, who finished the season with 88 tackles. The Bears’ best wins were at the end of the season when they beat 21st-ranked SMU 38-35 and 15th-ranked Louisville 29-26. 

At first glance, the story of this game seems to be Hawai’i playing in its home state, but another storyline to watch is California quarterback and potential 2026 Heisman-hopeful Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele returning to his home state. The freshman quarterback announced a couple of weeks ago that he plans to stay in Berkeley next season, so all eyes will be on the future when Sagapolutele tries to cap off his first year with a bowl win. Hawai’i’s quarterback, Micah Alejado, will not only be a tough test for Sagapolutele in this matchup, but also an emotional one. The two quarterbacks were childhood friends in Hawai’i. They grew up playing with and against one another. Alejado will be without his top receiver Jackson Harris in this game due to the transfer portal. Harris finished the season leading Hawai’i in receiving with 963 yards and 12 touchdowns. I believe California has the higher ceiling in this matchup, and I’ll back them in Sagapolutele’s homecoming. 

California vs Hawaii prediction: Cal Golden Bears +1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to PK.

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The Central Michigan Chippewas of the Mid-American Conference make the short jaunt down from Mount Pleasant to Detroit to battle the Northwestern Wildcats in the GameAbove Sports Bowl at Ford Field. The Chips were hot against the number, but they ran into a defensive buzzsaw in the regular-season finale — falling 21-3 at Kelly/Shorts Stadium on November 29. That halted a 5-0 ATS run dating back to October 18. In CMU’s only other meeting with a Big Ten team in 2025, the Chips were hammered 63-3 at the Big House against Michigan on September 13 as a 28-point underdog.

The Wildcats were tripped up 20-13 in the snow in Champaign on November 29, pushing as a 7-point underdog. Northwestern limps in with 4 losses in the final 5 games, but all of those games were against bowl-bound teams. The defense allowed 24 or more points in 4 of those outings. If we’re looking at common opponents, the Wildcats lost just 24-22 to Michigan at home on November 15. While leading RB Caleb Komolafe missed the regular-season finale in Illinois, he is expected to play. That’s a big boost, as is the fact backup RB Joseph Himon II is also ready to go. He was Komolafe’s replacement, and he was hurt against the Illini. Still, double digits is a lot for the Wildcats to lay. CMU should be able to hang around.

Central Michigan vs Northwestern prediction: Central Michigan Chippewas +10.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +10.

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The Minnesota Golden Gophers will try to make it 9 straight bowl-game victories this Friday night when they take on the New Mexico Lobos in the Rate Bowl. PJ Fleck has a perfect 6-0 record in bowl games as the head coach of the Gophers, and the Gophers haven’t lost a bowl game since 2015. This year’s team finished with a record of 7-5 and won 2 of their last 4 games to end the season. Their best win of the season was a 24-6 win against 25th-ranked Nebraska. Drake Lindsey led the team in passing with 2235 yards and 16 touchdowns. However, the normally-strong Gophers running game wasn’t as strong in 2025. Running back Darius Taylor led the team in rushing with 554 yards and 3 touchdowns.

New Mexico finished its season with a record of 9-3, including 6 straight wins. Its best win was a 23-17 2OT victory over 9-3 San Diego State to close out the season. Quarterback Jack Layne led the team in passing this season with 2398 yards and 13 touchdowns. The Lobos defense is led by junior linebacker Jaxton Eck, who finished the season with 126 tackles. That number has him ranked 9th in the FBS. 

I believe both teams will bring their best to Chase Field in Arizona for this game. Fleck has made it well known that he advocates for bowl games and preaches the importance of them to his players. New Mexico has not competed in a bowl game since 2016, and with a chance to finish its season with 10 wins after a decade of struggles, look for the Lobos to play their best. My main concern in this game is the Gophers playing away from home, as they are 0-5 this season when playing away from their home stadium. Lindsey has been solid for Minnesota, but his numbers drop significantly on the road. His completion percentage drops from 65% to 60%, his average yards per attempt drops from 6.7 to 5.5, and his passer rating drops from 135.1 to 114.1. Without their usual consistency in the running game, the Gophers have struggled at times on offense this season. New Mexico is a good tackling team and should be able to contain the Gophers’ running backs and make Minnesota one-dimensional. Minnesota finished below their expectations this season, and I believe their season ends with one more disappointment.

New Mexico vs Minnesota prediction: New Mexico Lobos +2.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable to pk.

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After finishing their season 4 four straight victories, the FIU Panthers will look to challenge the UTSA Roadrunners in the First Responders Bowl this Friday night. FIU finished their season with a record of 7-5, including a dominant 56-16 victory over Sam Houston in the final week. The Panthers’ leading passer this season was Keyone Jenkins, who finished with 1,693 yards and 9 touchdowns. Kejon Owens led the team in rushing with 1298 yards and 11 touchdowns.

UTSA finished its season with a 6-6 record, including wins in 3 of their last 5 games. Their best win this season was against eventual College Football playoff-bound Tulane 48-26. Quarterback Owen McCown led the team in passing with 2,700 yards and 27 touchdowns. Running back Robert Henry Jr. led the team in rushing with 1,045 yards and 9 touchdowns. 

The word inconsistent could be used to describe the season for UTSA. The Roadrunners have had some games in which they have looked great. Against Tulane, McCown threw for 370 yards and 4 touchdowns, and the team looked like they could play with anyone. In other games, the Roadrunners’ defense looked like it couldn’t stop anyone. In the 2 losses surrounding the Tulane victory, UTSA surrendered 55 points to both North Texas and South Florida. I expect the inconsistencies to continue into the bowl game against FIU. Head coach Jeff Traylor described his roster for the bowl game as a “shell of themselves,” as the team is expected to be without 10-20 players due to opt-outs and the transfer portal. FIU expects to have both quarterbacks in Joe Pesansky and Keyone Jenkins return from injury for this game, as the Panthers try to win their first bowl game since 2018. 

FIU vs UTSA prediction: FIU Owls +6 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After finishing their season 4 four straight victories, the FIU Panthers will look to challenge the UTSA Roadrunners in the First Responders Bowl this Friday night. FIU finished their season with a record of 7-5, including a dominant 56-16 victory over Sam Houston in the final week. The Panthers’ leading passer this season was Keyone Jenkins, who finished with 1,693 yards and 9 touchdowns. Kejon Owens led the team in rushing with 1298 yards and 11 touchdowns.

UTSA finished its season with a 6-6 record, including wins in 3 of their last 5 games. Their best win this season was against eventual College Football playoff-bound Tulane 48-26. Quarterback Owen McCown led the team in passing with 2,700 yards and 27 touchdowns. Running back Robert Henry Jr. led the team in rushing with 1,045 yards and 9 touchdowns. 

The word inconsistent could be used to describe the season for UTSA. The Roadrunners have had some games in which they have looked great. Against Tulane, McCown threw for 370 yards and 4 touchdowns, and the team looked like they could play with anyone. In other games, the Roadrunners’ defense looked like it couldn’t stop anyone. In the 2 losses surrounding the Tulane victory, UTSA surrendered 55 points to both North Texas and South Florida. I expect the inconsistencies to continue into the bowl game against FIU. Head coach Jeff Traylor described his roster for the bowl game as a “shell of themselves,” as the team is expected to be without 10-20 players due to opt-outs and the transfer portal. FIU expects to have both quarterbacks in Joe Pesansky and Keyone Jenkins return from injury for this game, as the Panthers try to win their first bowl game since 2018. 

FIU vs UTSA prediction: FIU Owls +6 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is all about identities. Penn State’s identity is defense first. That’s been its DNA throughout the season. The Nittany Lions offense can be methodical, but it is not explosive by nature, especially against a defensive front that can hold up physically. That naturally makes points come at a premium.

Clemson, in many ways, mirrors PSU’s profile. While the Tigers have more upside offensively, they are at their best when leaning on defense, field position, and forcing mistakes. Clemson’s defensive line and linebacker play are capable of disrupting Penn State’s run game and stalling drives. This is the type of contest that is going to be settled at the line of scrimmage and could end up being a rock fight in every sense of the word. Both teams will be playing chess here, not checkers. Points will be scarce, field position will mean everything, and this is a contest that can easily be settled on the final driven. Given the overall expected tight margins in play, nothing about this says over. This is a game that may not even break the 35-point threshold. Take the under.

Penn State vs Clemson prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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The Penn State Nittany Lions and the Clemson Tigers at Yankee Stadium? While it may seem like something out of a movie, it’s just the Pinstripe Bowl. In the beginning of the regular season, if you told us these two would be squaring off in the postseason, we would have thought it would have been in the College Football Playoff. Instead, two of the most storied programs in college football meet in the Bronx before New Year’s Day. The question going in is which team can handle that better? The signs point to the Tigers.

We can point out this number opened with Clemson spotting a field goal plus the hook to PSU. That type of price typically lends to a favorite number because it makes the field goal plus the half point attractive to take with the underdog. So far, the market has bitten down, and the line has moved to a field goal accordingly. However, that’s not the only reason why we like the Tigers here. Let’s talk about coaching: Terry Smith vs. Dabo Swinney. Who are you taking? Dabo, of course. Swinney will find a way to craft a narrative to get his team fired up for this opportunity even if its season went off the rails. Penn State may have a lot more local support in New York, but none of that actually matters against a team like Clemson, who is built for stages even like this one. Tigers roll.

Penn State vs Clemson prediction: Clemson Tigers -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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If Georgia Tech is going to have success in this bowl, it’s going to come through offense—and that reality makes the over the most logical companion play in this matchup. The Yellow Jackets are not built to grind out low-possession slugfests against capable opponents. Look at what happened when they were forced to do so against the Dawgs: they floundered. When Georgia Tech wins or stays competitive, it’s because they are able to score points. If Georgia Tech covers or wins, it almost certainly means they’re scoring into the 30’s. The Ramblin’ Wreck is undefeated when it crosses that threshold.

BYU will need to score to succeed here too. In its two losses this season against Texas Tech, the Cougars defense bled points while the Cougars had no fastball of their own to keep the Red Raiders honest. If they are going to compete, they too will have to score. That also correlates to the over. But here is the thing, the Jackets have given up over 600 yards of offense to the likes of NC State and surrendered 42 to Pittsburgh in their loss to the Panthers. Thus, BYU can expect to find the end zone a few times without fail too. In turn, both teams can easily find themselves in a track meet. For those that like the Cougars, if they are going to compete, they will have to sprint rather than slow things down. Everything about this game in the mechanics and tactics point towards it being a contest that can easily cross the 60-point mark which makes the over a solid option.

Georgia Tech vs BYU prediction: Over 56 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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Neither Georgia Tech nor BYU expected to be here in late October, and that disconnect between expectation and reality is central to evaluating this matchup. Bowl games are often decided less by raw talent and more by emotional readiness, and the two teams arrive here from very different psychological paths. Georgia Tech’s season-ending disappointment is no longer fresh. Its postseason hopes ended in late November with a decisive loss to Pittsburgh, followed by a scrappy defeat in Atlanta against arch nemesis Georgia. Those results were definitive, but they also gave the Yellow Jackets something valuable: time. Time to process, reset, and reframe this bowl game as an opportunity rather than a consolation prize. With weeks to prepare and no lingering “what ifs,” Georgia Tech can approach this matchup with a clear, focused mindset.

BYU’s letdown, on the other hand, is far more recent and far more severe. The Cougars entered championship weekend with a direct path to the College Football Playoff, only to suffer a stunning 34–7 blowout loss to Texas Tech. That wasn’t just a loss—it was a public unraveling in the most critical moment of the season. Recovering emotionally from that kind of collapse is difficult, especially when the reward is a mid-tier bowl instead of the playoff stage they had within reach. We don’t know how the Cougars will approach this game. They may have already moved onto 2026. With motivation tilting toward the Yellow Jackets, Georgia Tech is positioned not just to compete and cover the number, but to win outright. That’s how we’ll play it.

Georgia Tech vs BYU prediction: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML (+160) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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As part of a loaded Saturday college football slate, the 10-3 Virginia Cavaliers will meet the 8-4 Missouri Tigers in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. The Cavaliers come into this game on the heels of a disappointing 27-20 overtime loss to Duke in the ACC Championship, which cost them a seat at the metaphorical College Football Playoff table. Meanwhile, the Tigers ended the season with 4 losses in their last 7 outings, though 3 of those losses were to CFP teams and the 4th was to a near-playoff team in Vanderbilt. 

As with every non-playoff bowl game, player availability is the first thing to assess. At the time of writing on Christmas Eve morning, Virginia should be close to full strength. That is, assuming players like RB J’Mari Taylor, QB Chandler Morris, and S Devin Neal all play. As far as injuries go, the Cavaliers will be without LB Kam Robinson – one of their best tacklers – and potentially leading-WR Trell Harris (847 yards, 5 TD), who was hurt in the ACC Championship. On the other sideline, Missouri will be without starting QB Beau Pribula, WR Marquis Johnson and WR Josh Manning, all of whom hit the transfer portal. Injury wise, starting TE Brett Norfleet and stud LB Josiah Trotter are out. 

Missouri’s passing attack will be limited without Pribula, Johnson, and Manning, but backup QB Matt Zollers started 3 games during the regular season. The freshman signal caller is still green, but with playing experience against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Mississippi State, plus a few weeks to prepare for this opponent, he should be ready to go. Missouri’s offense is centered around the run anyway, and that is where the Tigers should have the advantage in this matchup.

Virginia rates very well defensively, but I question the strength of its opponents. Simply put, the Cavaliers have not faced a runner like Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy. The future-pro accumulated over 1,500 rushing yards this year with 16 touchdowns, and over 1,100 of those yards came after contact. Without Robinson on the field, Virginia may have a difficult time stopping Missouri’s run game, even if Hardy doesn’t receive a full workload – as the Tiger backfield is deep with capable rushers.

I have a similar opinion as it pertains to Virginia’s offense against Missouri’s defense. The Cavaliers did not face many stop-units near the strength of the Tigers at any point this season. In fact, the 3 best defenses Virginia faced from a PPA/play perspective were Louisville, Washington State, and Wake Forest, and the Cavaliers averaged 12 points less in those 3 games than they did over the course of the whole season – and that’s before acknowledging UVA had 2 defensive touchdowns and 6 overtime points against Louisville. With a top-20, front-7 havoc rate since Week 9, Missouri’s defensive front is going to get after Morris in the backfield. 

Considering the step up in class for Virginia, as well as the potential let down after losing the ACC Championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff, it’s Missouri or pass as far as the spread is concerned for me in the Gator Bowl.

Virginia vs Missouri prediction: Missouri Tigers -3.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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Missouri’s over/under record is an even 6-6, but the Tigers have trended to the under more recently, as 6 of their last 8 games went low on the total. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark to the under in games played away from home and a 2-0 under record in games with a total of 45 or less, which is exactly the number for the Gator Bowl. 

Virginia’s over/under record sits at 5-7-1, which includes a stretch of 7 unders and 1 push in its last 8 games. In other words, Virginia hasn’t played in a game that went over the total since the end of September, depending which closing lines you use. Only twice did a UVA game have a total under 50 points; the first went over against Stanford, while the second stayed way under against Wake.

Given UVA’s offensive struggles when stepping up against above-average defenses, it’s hard to rely on the Cavaliers for points in this matchup – especially against a stout defensive front like Missouri’s. Not to mention, these teams are mutually outside the top 110 in points per quality drive since Week 9. Look for this one to be low-scoring.

Virginia vs Missouri prediction: Under 45 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 44. 

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At first glance, this number feels justified. Louisiana Tech has the better record, has been far kinder to bettors, and enters this matchup riding a bit of momentum. Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, looks like a team in free fall—three straight losses, the last two coming by blowout margins where the Chanticleers surrendered more than 50 points in each. On paper, it’s easy to understand why the Bulldogs are laying this kind of tag. But dig a layer deeper, and the confidence behind Louisiana Tech quickly erodes. The Bulldogs are being asked to do something they have repeatedly failed to do this season: handle the role of favorite. This is a team that has lost three of its last four games outright when laying points, beginning with a flat performance against Kennesaw State that exposed their limitations. Louisiana Tech’s recent success has come almost exclusively as an underdog, where expectations are lower and pressure is minimal. Asking them to suddenly flip that script and win by margin is a dangerous proposition.

Yes, the Bulldogs have won two straight games, and yes, they did so as slight underdogs. But that’s exactly the issue—those results have inflated their market perception without changing the underlying profile of the team. Louisiana Tech remains volatile, inconsistent, and unreliable when forced to dictate play. That’s the definition of a false favorite. Coastal Carolina, on the other hand, enters this game with nothing to lose. Their recent results have completely removed them from the betting radar, which is precisely why the number has ballooned to this range. This game doesn’t require Coastal to be the better team—only competitive. With Louisiana Tech’s history of failing to capitalize as the chalk, nine points is simply too much to give in a matchup filled with volatility and uncertainty.

Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech prediction: Coastal Carolina +9 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

Bowl games often come down to one simple question: who actually wants to be there? And in this matchup, that question hangs squarely over Tennessee. The Volunteers entered the season with playoff aspirations after last year’s run, but those hopes were extinguished in November with a damaging home loss to Oklahoma. Since then, Tennessee’s resume has been padded with wins over New Mexico State and a Florida team that is in complete turmoil. The season ended on a sour note as well, with the Vols losing at home to Vanderbilt — a game where effort and urgency clearly favored the underdog. A spot that Vandy made the most of while Tennessee was left with even more question marks.

Illinois, meanwhile, views this game very differently. Despite sitting inside the Top Ten in the early going of the regular season, the Illini were never built for a Big Ten title run this season. That much was proven when one draws Indiana, Ohio State, and a road trip to Washington on the schedule and looked non-competitve in none of those contests. Still, Illinois has shown that they can compete physically and punch above their weight in the right spot. A bowl matchup against a brand-name SEC opponent that may already be thinking about 2026 is exactly the kind of opportunity for that to happen. Illinois plays a style of football that can neutralize Tennessee’s biggest strength – their offense. By controlling the line of scrimmage, shortening the game, and keeping possessions limited, the Illini can keep the Vols’ explosive offense on the sideline. That is also key against a Tennessee defense allowing nearly 29 points per game. The Illini may not only be able to mitigate the Volunteers’ offense but can also build a lead to cut their defensive line loose which loves to get into the backfield and disrupt things. With Illinois priced inside a field goal as an underdog, the number suggests this game is a tenable assignment for Illinois. If motivation matters — and in bowl season it always does — the Illini hold those cards too. Illinois outright.

Tennessee vs Illinois prediction: Illinois +115 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at number.

Tennessee’s offensive reputation naturally pushes the total upward, but this matchup does not favor a shootout if Illinois is competitive — and especially if Illinois wins outright. The Illini’s path to victory is clear: slow the game down, control possession, and keep Tennessee’s offense on the sideline. Illinois is comfortable grinding out long drives, shortening quarters, and turning games into physical contests. That approach directly suppresses total possessions, which is poison for an over at this number.

Tennessee’s defense also plays a role here. While they allow points, that doesn’t automatically translate to a high total. Illinois is more likely to finish drives methodically than strike quickly, which eats clock even when points are scored. Once again, this drains time. There is also strong correlation here. If Illinois is in position to win, they are controlling tempo. If they are controlling tempo, the game will lean towards the under. A high-scoring shootout favors Tennessee and works against the Illini’s strengths. This total assumes pace and fireworks but that only happens if the Volunteers win. We’re backing the Illini. Thus, the under fits the script.

Tennessee vs Illinois prediction: Under 61.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.