College Football Picks

The first-place Western Michigan Broncos head east on Interstate 94 from Kalamazoo to Ypsilanti to battle the Eastern Michigan Eagles on the gray turf of Rynearson Stadium. Western Michigan clinched its spot in the MAC Championship in Detroit following a 35-19 win at Northern Illinois as a -7-. The Over has cashed in 3 of the past 4 WMU games, too, while it has won 7 of the past 8 overall.

Eastern Michigan is eliminated from postseason contention, so this is essentially its bowl game. It is senior night in Ipsy, and EMU hopes to continue to be a thorn in the side of its directional rivals from The ‘Zoo. EMU is 4-2 SU/ATS in the past 6 H2H while winning and covering in 2 of the past 3 at home. The underdog is 6-3 ATS in the past 9 meetings in this series, too. Let’s back the Eagles catching the points, as the Broncos should get it done straight up. However, who knows what kind of motivation they will have with a title game spot already wrapped up. Could we even see key personnel rest?

Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan prediction: EMU +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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Last week Nebraska was one of the public dogs, taking back nearly double-digits against a 4-6 Penn State team — and bettors lined up on the Cornhuskers thinking the price was auspicious. Penn State ended up blasting the Cornhuskers 37-10, and just like that the market has completely swung the other direction — now piling onto Iowa simply because the ‘Huskers let them down. It also helps that the Hawkeyes have won 9 of the last 10 meetings.

But this line — sitting under a touchdown — is the giveaway. The oddsmakers aren’t willing to hang a big number despite Iowa’s dominance in the rivalry along with the fact they were a CFP hopeful just weeks ago. That tells you Nebraska isn’t coming in flat. The ‘Huskers were embarrassed last week, and teams often show their true form after a humiliation — especially when returning home against a rival that has had their number. Iowa’s offensive limitations always leave the door open, and the number suggests danger for the Hawkeyes. Forget the points; Nebraska pulls the upset.

Iowa vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska ML (+180) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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The annual Egg Bowl is one of the best rivalries in college football and Saturday’s installment has the potential to be one of the more consequential games in this rivalry on Friday, as Ole Miss needs a win to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff, while the Bulldogs are looking to pick up a victory to make a bowl game after starting the season with little to no expectations. This is also a game where there are a ton of off-field distractions at hand, as the Rebels are expected to lose head coach Lane Kiffin at the end of the regular season based on recent reporting. Given the fact that this could be Kiffin’s last game as the head coach in Oxford and he’s likely headed to another team within the SEC, it would be fair to question if both he and his team are in the right frame of mind to hit the road and play in an extremely important game to clinch a College Football Playoff berth against an opponent that is better than their record.

I successfully backed Mississippi State against multiple SEC foes this season, and I’m going back to the well with the Bulldogs at home against an Ole Miss team that has to be in a strange spot mentally at the moment. Ole Miss just struggled to put away Florida at home in its last contest and Mississippi State is certainly a better team than the reeling Gators. Furthermore, the Bulldogs will be at home, where they’ve excelled at this season, already beating Arizona State as an underdog of a touchdown and nearly upsetting both Texas and Tennessee as a home ‘dog of around a touchdown. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has undoubtedly been a pleasant surprise this season, but playing on the road in this type of rivalry game will still be a new experience for a player in Chambliss that is due for some turnover regression sooner rather than later. 

As for the other side of the ball, the Mississippi State offense should be able to keep the Bulldogs in this game, especially against an Ole Miss defense that has struggled in a number of conference games this season. The Mississippi State offense is a veteran group that sits in the top 20 nationally in rushing success rate and points per quality drive. We can expect Jeff Lebby’s group to be the one to bring the energy and punch Ole Miss in the mouth early on, which should lead to a fun back-and-forth game. We just saw Ole Miss lose a similar “win and in” type of game a season ago at Florida as a significant favorite, and it wouldn’t surprise me if history repeated itself on Friday.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State +7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +7

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The final week of the regular season gets going for the Big 12 on Friday afternoon as the Utah Utes take on the Kansas Jayhawks. Both teams have lots at stake here. For Kansas, a win would mean bowl eligibility. For the Utes, there is still an outside chance at both the Big 12 Championship game (if BYU somehow loses to UCF), or the playoffs (if lots of things go wrong for multiple other teams). The fact that Utah plays first but does not control its own destiny means that they need to win, and win impressively. This is a lot of points on the road, but I am taking Utah -12.5 on Friday.

It is going to be a cold afternoon in Lawrence when this game kicks off, and that is likely to favor the running games and the defenses. Both run defenses are poor, ranking outside the top 100 in yards allowed per game, but the eye test says the Utah defense is much more likely to stiffen up in this spot. The Utah offense should have no trouble shredding the Kansas defense, as pretty much every opponent has all season. Aside from a win against Oklahoma State sandwiched in the middle, Kansas has lost 4 of its last 5 games, and they have been pushed around badly in most of those. Utah should be able to bully Kansas in the trenches, and I suspect if we get late in the game and Kansas realizes they can’t win, but Utah is still trying to hang points to arbitrarily enhance their postseason chances, we might see Utah pull away late.

Utah vs Kansas Prediction: Utah -12.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Old Oaken Bucket rivalry creates unique dynamics every season, but this year the contrast between these two programs makes the matchup especially intriguing from a betting standpoint. Indiana comes in at 11–0, staring at a potential 12–0 regular season and preparing for a monumental Big Ten Championship showdown — possibly against the defending national champions and current No. 1 team in the country. That is where every ounce of Indiana’s emotional and strategic attention is directed. Beating Purdue is expected; beating Ohio State is the real task. And because of that, this week becomes a textbook flat spot.

Indiana has absolutely no incentive to run up the score. The Hoosiers are already playoff-bound and with the biggest game in program history a week away, Coach Cig will be cautious. Protecting starters, limiting the injury risk, shortening the game, and avoiding unnecessary physicality are all priorities. If Indiana gets up early, the likelihood of them calling off the dogs is extremely high. Purdue, on the other hand, is 2–9 with no Big Ten wins — but that makes this their bowl game. Teams with nothing left to play for except pride often bring their sharpest effort in rivalry week. Purdue doesn’t need to win outright to cash; they simply need to compete with intensity and take advantage of Indiana’s predictable conservatism. The spread assumes Indiana plays four full quarters at peak motivation — something that is nearly impossible to expect given the timing, the stakes, and the injury risks. Purdue, meanwhile, walks in loose, motivated, and with every reason to empty the playbook. In spots like this, the big dog is exactly the right side.

Indiana vs Purdue prediction: Purdue +28 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

A massive Conference USA showdown will take place between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Jacksonville State Gamecocks on Saturday night, as both teams are tied atop the conference standings at 6-1 heading into the final week of the regular season. The winner of this game is guaranteed a spot in the CUSA title game, but the situation varies depending on who loses because Kennesaw State is also 6-1 in conference play. 

The Owls are in if they win, but if Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State both lose and end up tied at 6-2 in conference play, the Gamecocks own the tiebreaker and would see WKU in an immediate rematch against the Hilltoppers. If Western Kentucky loses, the Hilltoppers are out no matter what. In short, this is a must win for the ‘Toppers if they want any shot of playing for the CUSA title. 

Jacksonville State has been perfect at home against FBS competition, winning and covering every game as an underdog. Yet, oddsmakers list them as underdog again this week – though I guess I understand why. Western Kentucky has been an ATS ATM this year, covering 9 of 11 spreads – including last week’s no-doubt cover as a 24.5-point underdog at LSU. However, I feel they are being awarded just a little too much for what they did against an uninterested team while Jacksonville State was battling with a conference contender in Florida International. I also believe the Gamecocks’ home win over Kennesaw State is being slightly undervalued, as Jacksonville State forced the then-undefeated (in conference play) Owls into 4 turnovers. 

This matchup is about as even as it gets, but I’m not convinced WKU should be laying a field goal in this spot. As such, I’ll lean to taking the points with Jacksonville State.

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State prediction: Jacksonville State Gamecocks +3 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2. 

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While there are plenty of games that should captivate college football fans across the nation on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games that still has some value comes in the AAC, where the Army Black Knights will visit the UTSA Roadrunners in a game that features a pair of teams trending in different directions at the moment. Last week, I was all over UTSA in what was one of the best spots of the Week 13 slate, and I’m going back to the well with the Roadrunners to win at home once again. 

On one side, Army is in the midst of a poor run of form against the spread, as the Black Knights have failed to cover in back-to-back games and are just 4-6 against the number for the season. Furthermore, Jeff Monken’s team is coming off a brutal loss to Tulsa at home, in which Army blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost on a field goal in the final seconds. Now, they’ll have to embark on a brutal road trip to take on a UTSA team that has yet to lose a game at home since joining the American Conference. Last year’s Army team was one of the best in recent program history, and even that Black Knights team had trouble putting UTSA away in West Point. This time around, I expect the Roadrunners to exact a bit of revenge in what should be another raucous atmosphere at the Alamodome.  

UTSA has been rounding into form in recent weeks, and that certainly carried over into a beatdown of what was a red-hot East Carolina team a week ago. Historically, Jeff Traylor has been an excellent head coach against the spread in November and his team has clearly turned a corner offensively, with Owen McCown and company putting up an average of nearly 45 points per game over their last 3 games at the Alamodome. Where UTSA has gotten into trouble has been against excellent offenses on the road, but that’s not the situation that they’ll see in this one. In fact, while the Roadrunners pass defense is still an issue, they won’t face much of a passing attack from an Army team that is very one dimensional with its heavy rush rate this season. With that in mind, the UTSA rush defense (21st in quality drive rate allowed) should keep the Black Knights behind the chains throughout this contest. Ultimately, given the fact that the Roadrunners are trending up while Army has struggled away from home this season, there’s some inherent value on the home favorite at the current number on Saturday.

Army vs UTSA prediction: UTSA -6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to UTSA -7 (-115).

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The striking part of this matchup is the line itself. Florida is 3–8, fresh off a primetime blowout loss to Tennessee, and by all logic should not be laying points to anyone — yet they are a two-point favorite over a Florida State team fighting for bowl eligibility at 5–6. That alone tells you where the oddsmakers are leaning.

This is Florida’s final game, the end of a forgettable season before a coaching reset. But rivalry games create their own reality, and this is the last chance for the Gators to take something meaningful into the offseason. More importantly, a win here would eliminate Florida State from bowl contention, a program that was ranked inside the top 10 earlier this year. That kind of spoiler motivation matters. Florida State has its own revenge narrative after last year’s loss, and on paper the Seminoles look like an attractive underdog. But if the team fighting for its postseason life were truly in the stronger position, they wouldn’t be catching points from a 3-8 opponent. The Gators have nothing left to lose, complete freedom to empty the playbook, and home-field intensity behind them. Florida State, despite the bowl motivation, has struggled to handle pressure in key moments all season. The market is signaling clearly: Florida is the right side.

Florida State vs Florida prediction: Florida -2 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

If Auburn is going to have any shot at winning the Iron Bowl, the path is narrow and very clear: they cannot get dragged into a track meet. The Tigers have struggled offensively all season, and every competitive performance they’ve put together has come in low-scoring, grind-it-out games. The blueprint is already on film. In their 16–10 loss to Texas A&M, they kept the pyrotechnics in check. Oklahoma beat them by only seven while scoring just 24. Georgia needed four quarters to reach 20 points. Even Missouri—a game that went to overtime—barely made it to 23.

This is who Auburn is. Their best chance is to slow Alabama down, limit possessions, and bring a physical, disruptive defensive presence that keeps the crowd alive. The alternative—allowing Alabama’s offense, with Ty Simpson and their receiving weapons, to find rhythm—is a death sentence. Auburn simply cannot keep pace if the game opens up. If Auburn is going to pull this off, the game has to be played on their terms: defense, field position, pressure, and chaos. We like them to do that and if that style is low scoring. Thus, the Under is the play.

Alabama vs Auburn prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 48.

The Iron Bowl is one of the most chaotic, logic-defying rivalries in college football, and Auburn finds itself in the exact type of spoiler role where strange things tend to happen. Jordan-Hare Stadium has been a house of horrors for Alabama for decades, and the Tigers enter this matchup with absolutely nothing to lose. At 5–6, Auburn either wins and reaches a low-tier December bowl—which doesn’t mean much to this program—or misses the postseason entirely. But none of that matters compared to the chance to wreck Alabama’s entire season.

And the stakes for the Tide couldn’t be higher. A third loss would eliminate them from the playoff. It would also end their SEC Championship hopes, since it would give them a second conference loss and lock in both Georgia and Texas A&M. Alabama needs this game for survival; Auburn needs it for pride. That dynamic often flips the script in this rivalry. This is Auburn’s championship game, their last swing, and the final emotional surge after firing Hugh Freeze. When a rivalry consistently subverts logic and the underdog is live, you take the shot. The number says Auburn is dangerous. War Eagle

Alabama vs Auburn prediction: Auburn +170 ML available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

The Bowling Green Falcons hit the road for Amherst, Massachusetts to battle the UMass Minutemen at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium. The Minutemen have played 11 games, and they have lost all 11 outings. They have dropped all 5 games at home while going 1-4 against the spread. However, Bowling Green is 0-5 on the road this season and just 2-3 ATS on the road. While UMass isn’t very good, Bowling Green has no business laying 2 touchdowns to anybody, either — especially on the road. As such, let’s look to the total instead.

Bowling Green has cashed the Under in 5 straight games, all losses, as head coach Eddie George’s team hit a wall in mid-October on the heels of a stunning 28-23 win over bitter rival Toledo at Doyt L. Perry Stadium as a +11.5 underdog. The Falcons have scored just 67 points in 5 games, or 13.4 PPG. The defense has actually gotten a little better, though, including a solid 19-16 showing at home against Akron last Tuesday. UMass has cashed the Over in each of the past 5 outings, with the offense good for just 10.0 ppg in the past 4 outings but the defense allowing 38 or more points in 4 straight and 42 or more in each of the past 3. We’re probably not going to get a shootout, but we should at least get to 47 or so.

Bowling Green vs UMass prediction: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.5.

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