College Football Picks

After a long and grueling season filled with ebbs and flows, the National Championship Game is finally here. We have a fascinating matchup on our hands on Monday, as the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers are set to take on the Miami Hurricanes, who are a bit of a Cinderella story based on their seeding in the playoff bracket. Miami has knocked off the likes of Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss in consecutive games, while the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers rolled through Alabama and Oregon in extremely impressive fashion to advance to this point. Which of these teams will come out on top at Hard Rock Stadium and take home a national title? It’s almost time to find out.

I went against Indiana a week ago, and while that wager didn’t have much of a chance, I’m going back to the well with a cautious fade of Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers in the biggest game of the season. While it’s hard to ignore what we’ve seen from the Hoosiers over their last few contests, the basic market fundamentals clearly point to Miami as the side in this game at the current number. For starters, it’s clear that a wager on Indiana in this game is buying the Hoosiers at the peak of their market value, and Indiana has already taken a ton of steam that has moved the line from 7 points at the open all the way up to nearly double digits. This is a pretty significant move considering that Miami is 3-0 against the number in the postseason, and the Hurricanes are going to be playing on their home field in this one, which has to count for something in a game of this magnitude. Even after factoring in Indiana’s massive improvements throughout the season, I still can’t get to this number given how well Miami is playing at the moment. 

While the Hurricanes might be a Cinderella story based on their seed, this team has been great in all areas during this improbable run to the title game. Mario Cristobal’s group appears to be playing its best football of the season on defense, and the offense has certainly come along and gotten more comfortable with each playoff game. The Hurricanes certainly have a massive test ahead against Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers’ extremely balanced offense (2nd in success rate, 2nd in EPA per play, 1st in points per drive)  However, given the fact that Miami’s defense just had to face Trinidad Chambliss and the electric Ole Miss offense — in addition to the excellent Texas A&M offense and Ohio State’s dynamic wide receiving corps — we can expect the Hurricanes to be prepared and up to the task in this one, particularly at the line of scrimmage. On the other side of the ball, the Indiana defense has also been a top-5 unit in the sport over the course of the season, but given the fact that Miami was able to move the ball successfully on the ground with Mark Fletcher Jr. against both Texas A&M and Ohio State, the Hoosiers’ formidable defensive front shouldn’t spook this Hurricanes ground game.

There’s no doubt that Indiana has looked like a wrecking ball all postseason long, and the Hoosiers should certainly be in position to walk away with a championship on Monday. However, this number is just a bit too rich for my blood now that we’ve cleared a full possession, and it would not shock me if the ‘Canes got a nice boost from their home fans in a game that is being played in their backyard. I’ll take the points with Cristobal and bank on another spirited effort from his team.

Miami vs Indiana prediction: Miami +9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +8.5.

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While both offenses have shown an ability to generate consistent success at various points in the postseason, this is still a game that is being played between 2 of the best defenses in the country. After all, Miami has faced a litany of good offenses this season and the Hurricanes (9th in success rate, 6th in points per drive allowed) have risen to the occasion each time. On the other side of the ball, the Hurricanes’ ground game has been efficient against multiple strong defenses during the playoff, it’s far from a guarantee that Miami will suddenly see success on the ground against an Indiana defense that is 3rd in rushing success rate allowed and 2nd in opponent EPA per rush (CFB-Graphs).

Carson Beck has struggled when pressured this season and the Hoosiers’ secondary has performed well against a variety of passing attacks all season long, so I wouldn’t expect them to be intimidated by the Miami wide receiving corps. Ultimately, I can only look toward the under in a game that could be more of a grinder than what the market is projecting. 

Miami vs Indiana pick: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.

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