Missouri Tigers vs Ole Miss Rebels predictions

Tue 2/23 9:00 ET
Ole Miss
Ole Miss Rebels
12-9
14-6
Missouri
Missouri Tigers
Mizzou Arena

Pickswise's Expert Predictions & Analysis

Point Spread Prediction
Mississippi
Game Totals Prediction
Over

Point Spread Prediction

Is Ole Miss primed to be a giant killer? They certainly could be, and they will grab some extra March Madness momentum if they pull off yet another upset on Tuesday. The Rebels have won both of their games against ranked opponents this season, and they have a great chance to beat another when they visit No. 24 Missouri. Ole Miss’s strategy is consistent: they pass the rock, they rely on their upperclassmen, and they force a wild amount of turnovers (they force turnovers on 24.6 percent of defensive possessions, ninth-best in Division I). Ole Miss has also been on a roll recently, going 4-1 against the spread in their last five games.

Things haven’t been going nearly as well for the Tigers. After dropping their previous three games, they could have found themselves falling out of the rankings if not for a much-needed win against South Carolina on Saturday. Of course, this inconsistency isn’t news to bettors. Missouri hasn’t necessarily been friendly to bettors in 2021, as they’re only 11-9 against the spread (including an underwhelming 5-5 at home). The low four-point spread shouldn’t ease any of those concerns; three of Missouri’s last four wins have been decided by five points or fewer. Oh, and when these teams met earlier this mount Mississippi won by a convincing 21 points. Missouri is heading in the wrong direction right now, which is why we’re rolling with the Mississippi points.

Game Totals Prediction

Missouri has seen the total go over in eight of their last 10 games. That’s partly thanks to an offense that has the ability to explode at any time, with the trio of Xavier Pinson, Dru Smith, and Jeremiah Tilmon combining for 41.8 of Missouri’s 75.0 points per game. However, the real reason the total constantly goes over is because of the Tigers’ turnstile defense. The team is allowing an ugly 72.1 points per game and their 71.7 points per game allowed at home is a marginal improvement (in fact, Missouri is allowing a worse field-goal percentage at home). The team’s recent rough stretch has seen the defense get even worse, as they’re allowing an average of 81 points per game over their past four.

You might think this isn’t all that relevant against an Ole Miss squad that occasionally struggles to score, but it’s worth noting that the Rebels are scoring an impressive 75.8 points per game over their last four (and that includes a 56-point stinker in their last game). Ignoring that loss to Mississippi State, Devonte Shuler was averaging 24 points per game over that stretch (15.7 ppg for the season). Ole Miss also got a 30-point outing from Romello White against Auburn, proving that someone else is capable of getting a bucket when needed. Plus, to top it all off, the total has gone over in each of the Rebels’ last five visits to Missouri. We’re taking the over.

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