College Football Picks

The 2nd round of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and there are now just 4 teams remaining in the pursuit of a National Championship. Back on New Year’s Day, the 5th-seeded Oregon Ducks defeated Texas Tech to advance to this semifinal round, while the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers rolled through Alabama in impressive fashion just a few hours later. Which of these teams will come out on top in the Peach Bowl on Friday and advance to the National Championship game? It’s almost time to find out. 

You could convincingly make the case that these are the 2 best teams in the country at the moment, and while it’s hard to ignore what we’ve seen from the Hoosiers over their last few contests, the basic market fundamentals clearly point to Oregon as the side in this game at the current number. For starters, it’s clear that a wager on Indiana in this game is buying the Hoosiers at the peak of their market value, while the Ducks are still being priced like a lesser team than they were a few months ago, which I just don’t believe is the case. After all, Oregon was a 7-point favorite against Indiana at Autzen Stadium back on October 11, which would roughly make this a line move of over 8 points since the first meeting between these teams. While Indiana deserves to be priced as the best team in the field, I’ve certainly upgraded Oregon following its dominant showing against Texas Tech, a team that is significantly better than an Alabama team that essentially quit after Indiana took an early double-digit lead in the Rose Bowl.

There’s no doubt that the Ducks played their worst game of the season by some distance in that first meeting, and they still were tied midway through the 4th quarter. Now, Dan Lanning’s group appears to be playing its best football of the season on defense, and the offense can hone in on making the necessary schematic adjustments to fix what went wrong in the previous meeting. It certainly won’t be easy against Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers’ extremely balanced offense (2nd in success rate, 2nd in EPA per play, 3rd in points per drive) and the Indiana defense has also been a top-5 unit in the sport over the course of the season. However, given the fact that Oregon’s offense just had to face the best defensive front in the nation, I’m expecting a much better effort from the Ducks on the ground in this one, which was something they were able to do successfully for a decent chunk of the first meeting against Curt Cignetti’s defense.

Will Stein’s offense should also finally be getting Evan Stewart back for this game, which makes this the healthiest that Oregon’s deep group of pass-catchers (Dakorien Moore, Kenyon Sadiq, Malik Benson, Gary Bryant Jr., etc.) has been all season. With that in mind, as long as Dante Moore is able to play to his strengths and avoid making some of the mistakes he made in the first meeting, the Ducks should be able to grind out scoring drives and potentially even strike for some explosive plays downfield. Look for Oregon to empty the tank and pull out all the stops schematically on both sides of the ball in a game that could come down to the final possession.  

Oregon vs Indiana prediction: Oregon +4.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.5.

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At first glance, I thought I was going to be targeting the under in this game, much like I did for both teams in their quarterfinal matchups. However, I’m actually more inclined to look at the over in this game now that the total has come down a bit from the opening number. While both defenses are among the best in the nation, these offenses should be able to implement some schematic adjustments from the first game and improve on their respective performances. While neither offense played all that well back in that October meeting, the game still finished with 50 total points, and that was with each side squandering a few scoring chances. Now, the Ducks will get to showcase their speed on a fast track against an Indiana defense that loves to play its safeties deep, giving the opponent plenty of room to move the ball with the short and intermediate passing game — a mainstay in Will Stein’s offense.

On the other side, the Hoosiers offense was able to generate consistent success on the ground in the previous matchup, and that should continue into this game given how well Indiana’s offense line has played all year. The Oregon secondary is excellent, but this is the best wide receiver duo the Ducks have played, so it’s reasonable to assume that they’ll give up a few big plays here and there as well. Let’s roll with the over now that we’re under a key number.

Oregon vs Indiana pick: Over 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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