College Football Picks

One of the biggest games on the Week 3 college football slate comes in Knoxville, Tennessee, where the Georgia Bulldogs will take on the Tennessee Volunteers in a pivotal SEC clash on Saturday. This series has been dominated by Georgia in the Kirby Smart era, and while these teams are trending in different directions heading into this matchup on paper, I’m very confident in backing the Bulldogs to maintain control of this rivalry and pick up a win and cover in Rocky Top.

There are some justifiable concerns to be had for Georgia on the surface. After all, the Bulldogs offense has looked fairly mediocre over the first two games of the campaign. New quarterback Gunner Stockton is not pushing the ball downfield all that much and the offensive line is still a question mark given all of the pieces they are rotating at different positions. However, Georgia playing it very safe and keeping things vanilla against inferior opponents in nonconference play is nothing new for Smart, and I have a feeling that this Bulldogs staff will have a much stronger offensive gameplan in store against an untested Tennessee defense.

As for the Georgia defense, it’s abundantly clear that the Bulldogs aren’t anywhere near as dominant as what we’ve seen from them in seasons past. However, this is a unit that still ranks inside the top 20 in most of the meaningful advanced metrics, including success rate allowed, net points per drive, EPA margin and third and 4th down success rate allowed. Conversely, the Tennessee offense has historically struggled when facing this Georgia defense in the Smart era, and while new quarterback Joe Aguilar has looked very solid thus far, this is an entirely new test for the former Appalachian State gunslinger that has shown a propensity to turn the ball over in his 3 seasons as a starter.

Ultimately, I fully expect the Bulldogs to bounce back after a pretty mediocre showing against Austin Peay in a game that shouldn’t matter all that much considering the obvious look-ahead spot at hand. Georgia is still the top dog in this conference and the dominant team in this series, and I’ll make Tennessee prove it to me before I change my tune.

Georgia vs Tennessee prediction: Georgia -3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This has been a series defined by early offense, before both defenses settle in and keep points to a minimum after halftime. I see no reason to fade that trend in this spot, especially since these are 2 of the 15-20 best units in the sport by nearly every metric. I have questions with both of these offenses, as there is major quarterback uncertainty in this game on both sides. I’m also not sold on the ground attack for either group, with Tennessee’s offense struggling on early downs to this point while Georgia is still working out some key offensive line issues. Lastly, both Smart and Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel should be expected to keep things close to their chest early on and avoid taking any big risks on offense, especially given the magnitude of this game. Let’s back the Under while it’s still over a couple of key numbers in this price range.

Under 50.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.

The Pittsburgh Panthers head to a dangerous Morgantown atmosphere to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in the rivalry dubbed ‘The Backyard Brawl.” Both squads are coming off polar opposite results in Week 2 with the Panthers smashing Central Michigan and the Mountaineers dropping one at home against Ohio. Despite the difference in recent success, this matchup has been decided within one touchdown in 6 of the last 8 meetings, and I expect it to be close once again this year. This is a get-right game for West Virginia in what is likely the most important home game on the schedule in 2025, I expect the Mountaineers to be up for this one.

The offense is coming off a shaky performance, but the Ohio defense is incredibly underrated, and the Bobcats have a front seven that could compete in a power 5 conference. The bright spot for the Mountaineers has been their defense; West Virginia forced 3 turnovers in the pass game and held the Bobcats to under 4.0 yards per carry. The WVU defense is a big step up compared to Pittsburgh’s early-season competition and I expect the unit to give the offense plenty of opportunities to keep this within reach. After falling in a 4-point loss in last season’s meeting, I’ll take West Virginia to keep things close once again.

Pittsburgh vs West Virginia prediction: West Virginia +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to +6.5 (-110).

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Both 2-0 coming into this Week 3 clash, USC and Purdue meet on Saturday in West Lafayette to open their Big Ten schedules. The Boilermakers are in uncharted territory coming into this contest, as head coach Barry Odom is first coach to lead the Boilermakers to a 2-0 start in his first season with the program in over 100 years. I’m not sure what to make of that stat, but I know Big Ten teams should beat Ball State and FCS Southern Illinois, so at least Purdue is living up to conference expectations after a 1-win season last year. 

Speaking of last year, the Boilermakers did not beat a single FBS opponent. When ranked teams visited Purdue, they met little-to-no resistance. In fact, the Boilers were 0-3 ATS when hosting ranked teams in 2024, and they failed to surpass 10 points in any of those games. Moreover, they didn’t finish within 30 points of any of those opponents (Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State). Fast forward to this season, where Purdue has almost a completely new roster being led by a new coach that has yet to play a team anywhere near the skill level of USC. 

The Trojans have been absolutely electric this season, logging a total of 132 points and 1,352 yards combined against Missouri State and Georgia Southern ahead of this week. Like Purdue’s opponents, you can’t really take much from games against a brand new FBS team and a Sun Belt team, but it’s hard to envision Purdue’s defense standing up against such a high-powered USC offense for 4 quarters. While cross-country travel is a concern for the Trojans, and probably will be the reason why this is not a 4 or 5-star bet, I’m going to back the team scoring nearly 6.5 points per trip inside the opposing 40-yard line and ranking 1st nationally in yards per play against a team that is not nearly as good as its record indicates. 

USC vs Purdue prediction: USC -21 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -22.5.

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The Iowa State Cyclones will travel south this Saturday to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves, as both teams are coming off an in-state rivalry game last weekend. Iowa State defeated the Iowa Hawkeyes 16-13 to move to 3-0 on the season. This was a tightly played, defensive game as most Iowa State-Iowa games are. Rocco Becht threw for a total of 134 yards, and he led his team 55 yards in the final minutes to allow for a game-winning 54-yard field goal.

Arkansas State lost their previous game 56-14 against Arkansas. Arkansas jumped out to a 2-touchdown lead in the first 5 minutes of this game and never looked back. Arkansas State was dominated on the ground, allowing 191 yards rushing on 10 attempts in the first quarter alone. Arkansas State’s quarterback, Jaylen Raynor, finished the game with 125 yards passing, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions.

Iowa State has been one of the most impressive teams in college football to start the season. With big wins against Kansas State in Dublin and a win against their rival Iowa, the Cyclones find themselves ranked 14th. With all things going right for Iowa State, this week could prove to be its first let down spot. After a tight victory against an in-state rivalry, Iowa State will need to prove its attention to detail this week against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves have struggled defensively early this year, especially against the run, but this team can put up points offensively thanks to junior, dual-threat quarterback Raynor, who threw for over 2500 yards in both of his previous seasons under center for the Red Wolves.

Despite falling behind early last week, Arkansas State showed they can hang with top teams when they controlled possession for most of the 2nd quarter against Arkansas. Raynor even has an explosive receiver on the outside, Chauncy Cobb, who returned a 98-yard touchdown last week against Arkansas. Iowa State should still win this week, but I don’t think Arkansas State will go down easily on their home field. 

Iowa State vs Arkansas State prediction: Arkansas State +20.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The South Florida Bulls are on the road for a second consecutive game inside the Sunshine State. USF pulled off the big road upset at Florida, winning on a last-second field goal in The Swamp, 18-16, and cashing as an 18-point underdog. The Bulls are a similar underdog in this game against another ranked foe. Lost in the good start, with 2 wins over ranked teams, is the defensive effort of USF. It topped Boise State 34-7 in the opener as a 4.5-point underdog, and the under has cashed in both outings, in case you’re considering a Same-Game Parlay (SGP).

The Hurricanes went to Tampa last season and belted the Bulls 50-15 as a 16.5-point favorite, as the total (65) pushed at most shops. The Bulls would love to exact a little revenge, and they enter the game playing with a ton of confidence. However, Miami knows a little bit about confidence, too. It topped Notre Dame in the opener, while routing FCS Bethune Cookman last week, although it didn’t come close to cashing as a 53.5-point favorite. QB Carson Beck has completed 76.4 percent of his passes for 472 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions through 2 starts. RB Mark Fletcher Jr. is off to a good start with 5.8 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns. He will be a difference maker, helping The U avoid the upset. However, this is a lot of points to lay. Take the Bulls, who are running with a lot of confidence.

USF vs Miami prediction: USF +17.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +17.

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The No. 18 South Florida Bulls have been playing with tremendous confidence in their first 2 games, topping the ranked Boise State Broncos and the ranked Florida Gators. USF belted the Broncos 34-7 at Raymond James Stadium in the opener, allowing 378 total yards and 5.3 yards per pass attempt. They also limited the Broncos to just 3.2 yards per rushing attempt, while forcing 3 turnovers. USF had a little bit of a bend-don’t-break defense in that one, and it took advantage of all miscues. USF allowed 25 first downs, while managing just 15 on offense, and it was 5-of-14 in third-down efficiency. It gave up 355 total yards to Florida, and it also forced 1 turnover while taking good care of the ball.

Miami will have a tough time corralling QB Byrum Brown, who is a fabulous dual-threat option. The Bulls are pretty good running the ball, and, in fact, it is their specialty. Running teams run the clock, which under bettors love. Miami threw a blanket on Bethune Cookman last week, giving up just 3 points. It will get a much bigger test here. While Miami allowed 314 total yards to Notre Dame, it was hard on the run, while managing just a 5-of-14 mark in third-down efficiency. Against another ranked team, the Hurricanes could struggle to roll up big yards on offense. This game has the feel of a 31-17 kind of a game, meaning it has the look and feel of an Under play.

USF vs Miami prediction: Under 57.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 57.

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Western Michigan hits the road for Champaign looking for its first victory. The Broncos were on the short end of a 23-6 loss to Michigan State in the opener in East Lansing back on Aug. 29, and they suffered a 33-30 loss in overtime against North Texas in Kalamazoo last weekend. As a double-digit underdog, though, the Broncos are 2-0 against the spread (ATS) through the first 2 games.

Illinois is ranked No. 9 after picking up a 45-19 victory on the road against the Duke Blue Devils last weekend, and it is also 2-0 ATS so far. The Fighting Illini should be able to amass a decent amount of offense against the struggling Broncos, who have allowed 28.0 points per game (PPG) so far. However, the Broncos should also be able to move the ball against Illinois. The Broncos have a solid backfield option in RB Jalen Buckley, who is not only effective running the football, but he is very efficient catching the ball out of the backfield, too, providing a safety valve for QB Broc Lowry. Western Michigan won’t win this game outright, like it did in the last meeting in 2016 en route to a perfect regular season, but it isn’t going to get blown out by more than 4 touchdowns, either.

Western Michigan vs Illinois prediction: Western Michigan +27.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +27.

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One of the headliner games of Saturday’s slate is the SEC clash in Death Valley between the Florida Gators and the LSU Tigers. LSU is off to a strong start, finally getting over the hump and winning a season opener with what is probably the most talented roster that Brian Kelly has had anywhere. The Gators come to town fresh off a loss to South Florida, and while the whole world overreacts to that, we also need to step back and realize that the Bulls are actually really good. I’m not ready to bury Florida, fire Napier, or any of that, but they are heading to what might be the most hostile nighttime college football environment on the planet, and this is just not a game you are supposed to win.

DJ Lagway has a talented Gator roster around him, and I think they will be fine as the season goes along. They still have maybe the nastiest schedule in the SEC though, and that starts with a trip to Death Valley. There is no way to prepare for the noise and power of that stadium, and it will inevitably lead to mistakes. Lagway is a great talent, but he is also young, and this is a big moment. The LSU defense is elite, and I expect this defense to control the game. The talent on the offensive side for the Tigers is top notch, and they should score. This could be a 10 point game, or it could be a landslide, but I would be shocked if it is just a field goal. Give me the Tigers to cover.

Florida vs LSU Prediction: LSU -7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The books have handed us a tough number here, but I like the under. I think this game will be heavy on the defense, and if points come at a premium, I expect offenses to take field goals when they get the chance. I also expect both teams to be willing to punt the ball away and rely on their defensive units. If you are Florida, I don’t think you come into this game expecting that you can win a shoot-out. You would have to plan on conservative, safe offense and reliance on your defense. There shouldn’t be much checking off at the line either. This just seems like a game that ought to finish in the low 20s.

It is worth knowing that LSU brought in the top-rated transfer class in the country, and much of that was on the defensive side. I think the Tigers have a defense that can line up with anybody, and they certainly expect to be able to compete in, and maybe even win, the SEC on the strength of that defense. LSU beat Clemson 17-10 and LA Tech 23-7; Florida lost to South Florida 18-16. Both teams are very much on the trajectory of unders at this point, and I look for that to continue. I’ll take my chances with the game total under 47.5.

Florida vs LSU Prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing; playable at that number.

A massive non-conference showdown kicks off from South Bend, Indiana on Saturday when the Texas A&M Aggies travel to Notre Dame to play the Fighting Irish. The Aggies come into this contest on the heels of 2 blowout victories in which they held a massive talent advantage over their opponents, while the Irish were idle last week after losing to Miami in Week 1. Notre Dame was outgained in that contest, suffered from 2 turnovers, and couldn’t get its highly-regarded run game going. In fact, Jeremiyah Love and the Irish gained fewer than 100 yards on the ground and averaged less than 3.5 yards per attempt against Miami’s defensive front.

These teams met to open the season last year and Notre Dame prevailed in College Station 23-13 as a 3-point underdog, while the game stayed well below the total of 47.5. This time around, the market has flipped. Notre Dame is laying a touchdown at home, and the total is higher than last year. 

I realize Notre Dame was the national runner-up last year, but a 10-point difference between last season’s game and this game seems to be a bit much given how these teams differ now compared to then. Since that game, Marcel Reed took over at quarterback for Texas A&M, and he has a full stable of playmakers at his disposal this year – which couldn’t be said last year. Wide receiver transfers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver have already made an impact, and the running back room is loaded with Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens.

Don’t get me wrong, Notre Dame has its own dynamic duo at running back, but I give the edge to Texas A&M as it pertains to wide receiver and offensive line in this particular matchup. After finishing in the top half of the country in pass and run blocking per PFF, the Aggies returned everyone on their offensive line, and the unit has looked good through 2 games albeit against inferior competition. Notre Dame’s defensive front will be a much tougher test, but Texas A&M should still find success offensively given its experience across the line and its playmaking surrounding Reed. 

Playing at home, Notre Dame’s offense is likely to look better this week than it did against Miami with extra preparation. That being said, I’m not confident in the Irish’s ability to limit Texas A&M’s offense this time around. Give me the points with the Aggies in a revenge spot.

Texas A&M vs Notre Dame prediction: Texas A&M Aggies +7 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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Last season’s matchup between Notre Dame and Texas A&M was a low-scoring, defensive affair in which the Aggies failed to surpass 250 yards and turned the ball over twice at home. It was a sloppy game, too, given the 17 combined penalties that were accepted. As a result, there were only 36 combined points scored, which stayed well below the closing total of 47.5.

This time around, the total is higher. Not only did it open higher than 47.5, but it was bet up immediately. I agree with the move, as I expect to see a much better offensive performance from the Aggies in this matchup, even if they are the ones playing on the road. Texas A&M’s offense dramatically improved in the offseason with the additions of wide receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, and Marcel Reed has already shown he offers a much higher ceiling as a quarterback than Connor Weigman – who was 12/30 for 100 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions when he started against Notre Dame last year. Another full offseason to learn offensive coordinator Collin Klein’s offense doesn’t hurt either, as the game against Notre Dame last year was his first game calling plays in College Station. Furthermore, you could make the argument that Notre Dame’s defense has regressed after it lost cornerstone pieces like Jack Kiser, Xavier Watts, Jordan Clark, and Howard Cross III in the offseason. All things considered, I expect Texas A&M to be much better offensively than it was last year in this matchup.

On the other side of the field, it’s tough to gauge how good the Aggies are defensively due to the blowout nature of their first 2 games. However, they looked susceptible against the run in Week 1 against UTSA, which is worrisome against Notre Dame – even if the Irish didn’t look great on the ground against Miami. If Texas A&M cannot contain the run, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price will take advantage. Moreover, new Irish quarterback CJ Carr looked more comfortable in the second half against Miami than he did in the first half. That experience, plus playing at home in front of his own fans, should pave the way for improvement on his Week 1 performance. 

Don’t be surprised to see at least one of these teams surpass 30 points. Give me the over. 

Texas A&M vs Notre Dame prediction: Over 49.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 51.

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The Utah State Aggies welcome the Air Force Falcons to Maverik Stadium in Logan for this Mountain West Conference battle. The winning side in 9 of the past 10 games has amassed at least 31 points, with the over cashing in each of the past 3 meetings and 5 of the past 7 in the series. In the past 3 meetings since Sept. 18, 2021, we have seen an average of 71.7 points per game (PPG). Utah State’s offense has been playing well, averaging 25.0 PPG through 2 games against UTEP and Texas A&M, and it allowed 44 points last week in a 44-22 loss to the Aggies.

We’ve only seen Air Force once so far, as the Falcons pounded Bucknell of the FCS 49-13 at Colorado Springs, nearly taking care of the over (54.5) on their own. The first touchdown of the season was a 40-yard touchdown pass from QB Josh Johnson, who also had a 62-yard scoring pass. Is that what we can expect from the Falcons, or was it simply because they were facing an overwhelmed opponent? We could get a little more variety from Troy Calhoun’s team in 2025. Whenever these teams get together, especially lately, a lot of points are sure to follow.

Air Force vs Utah State prediction: Over 51 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 52.5.

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One of the more under the radar matchups on the Week 2 college football slate comes in Berkeley, where the California Golden Bears will host the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a showdown between a couple of undefeated teams looking to make a move in their respective conferences this season. Minnesota was a team that I was looking to fade heading into the season, and while the Gophers did look a bit better than I expected in their season opener, we still got to the window with the Bulls in that spot and I expect PJ Fleck’s group to struggle with this west coast road trip to close out the nonconference portion of their schedule.

Given the fact that Minnesota is still breaking in 5 new players on the offensive line and starting a redshirt freshman quarterback, I have a hard time believing that the Gophers will do anything but keep things simple in his first road start at the collegiate level. With that in mind, the Bears defense (39th in success rate allowed, 28th in EPA per play) should be able to key in on star running back Darius Taylor and at least somewhat limit the explosiveness of the Gophers ground game. On the other side of the ball, the Gophers defense has looked great to this point, but it’s important to remember that this team still hasn’t played a quarterback with a pulse yet. In steps true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has looked outstanding in his first couple of games at the collegiate level. Let’s back the Bears on the money line to pull off the outright upset as short home underdogs. 

Minnesota vs California prediction: California ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.

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This is a classic sandwich spot for Michigan. Last week, the Wolverines ventured to Norman, Oklahoma for a marquee showdown with the top-15 ranked Sooners. Many in the market backed Michigan as a dog to win outright, but the Sooners controlled the game and won by 11. Conventional wisdom would suggest it’s time to back off the Wolverines, but instead, the market is doubling down in a supposed “bounce-back” spot.

The problem? Nebraska looms next. Michigan heads to Lincoln next week to face a likely undefeated and potentially ranked Cornhuskers team in a game with conference implications. It’s what has been called a “hinge game” by others. If the Wolverines want to get back into the playoff conversation, that matchup is far more important than dispatching Central Michigan.

That makes this game the definition of a let-down spot. There’s no real impetus for Michigan to run up the score here. They’ll want to get out clean, stay healthy, and focus on Nebraska. Laying nearly 4 touchdowns in this setting feels rich, especially given the total. With an Over/Under of just 42.5, the market is projecting a low-scoring contest. That’s not the environment where favorites comfortably cover massive numbers and Michigan so far this year has done nothing to convince anyone that they are capable of covering such a number.

Michigan doesn’t need to win; they just need to keep it respectable. With Michigan’s focus elsewhere and the number inflated by name brand bias, the value lies squarely with the Chips.

Central Michigan vs. Michigan prediction: Central Michigan +27.5 (+110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 24.

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This is the other side of Nebraska’s looming showdown with Michigan. The Cornhuskers enter at 2-0, carrying the look of a potential Big Ten contender. But all eyes in Lincoln are already fixed on next week’s matchup with the Wolverines, a game that will serve as the real measuring stick for whether Nebraska has finally leveled up into a national player. That creates the perfect trap dynamic. With all the build-up surrounding Nebraska vs Michigan, it’s hard to imagine the Huskers treating this game as anything more than a glorified dress rehearsal. Their job is to get in, establish control and get out healthy. The last thing head coach Matt Rhule will want is to expose starters to unnecessary risk before the collision between 2 of college football’s blue blood heavyweights.

That opens the door for Houston Christian. The Huskies will approach this game as an opportunity, not a formality. Playing an elite opponent in a hostile environment gives them meaningful reps and a chance to measure themselves before diving back into Southland Conference play. Even if the gap in talent is enormous, motivation and focus can help bridge some of that divide. The most likely scenario is simple: once Nebraska builds a comfortable lead, the starters head to the sidelines and the depth chart takes over. Houston Christian, meanwhile, will continue to compete for the full 60 minutes. That’s where the backdoor potential lies. A couple of late drives against second or third-string defenders could turn what looks like a blowout into a sneaky cover. Nebraska has the bigger goals ahead. Houston Christian just has this moment. In that imbalance, the value lies with the Huskies.

Houston Christian vs Nebraska: Houston Christian +TBD (final number to be released on gameday due to FCS vs FBS matchup).

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A week ago, I laid four touchdowns with Oregon in what was an ideal spot against Oklahoma State, and that will likely be one of the easiest winners I’ll have all season long as the Ducks put up 69 points on the Cowboys in a dominant victory from start to finish. It’s been nearly a picture-perfect start to the campaign for Dante Moore and company to this point. In fact, there have been more than half a dozen Ducks players that have registered touchdowns over the first 2 weeks in a pair of total beatdowns against historically proud programs. Now, Dan Lanning’s team heads to Chicago for a date with Northwestern on Lake Michigan in what could be a very sleepy spot for the Ducks with a rivalry game against Oregon State on deck, followed by a massive matchup against Penn State in Happy Valley.

Given the fact that this is a clear sandwich spot for Oregon and kickoff is set for 9 a.m. on the west coast, its hard to see the Ducks offense setting the world on fire in this one. Yes, it’s going to be difficult for Northwestern’s defense to make plays in the open field against the likes of Dakorien Moore or Kenyon Sadiq, but the Wildcats defense has been really solid against the run to this point and has been good at getting off the field on 3rd downs. On the other side of the ball, Oregon’s defense has been virtually flawless to this point, but this is an instance where the Northwestern offensive game plan is one that should focus on establishing the ground game and shortening the game. Look for Preston Stone and the Wildcats to chew up plenty of clock and try and slow this game down to a crawl in order to avoid a bludgeoning at the hands of a much more talented Oregon team. It’s not for the faint of heart, but let’s back the ‘Cats to keep this game within 4 touchdowns at home.

Oregon vs Northwestern prediction: Northwestern +28.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 28.

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The Wisconsin Badgers and Alabama Crimson Tide face off for the second meeting of the home-and-home series after a dominant Alabama win in 2024. Last time out, the matchup went just about as expected. However, both Wisconsin and Alabama have looked like two completely different teams in their respective season-opening games, and we don’t really know which version of either squad will show up for this one. The only unit that has been consistent on their side is the Badgers’ defense. Wisconsin ranks 3rd in total defense and 7th in sacks per game (4.0). Furthermore, the Badgers rank 2nd in fewest penalties and 10th in overall time of possession meaning the Crimson Tide are unlikely to catch many breaks and will have to rely on big plays if Wisconsin’s offense finds success.

Stylistically, the way the Badgers play football, in theory, should make it difficult for Alabama to pull away. As we saw in Week 1 against Florida State, a few poor decisions can snowball into disaster for this Crimson Tide squad. I expect Wisconsin to lean on the run game, as QB Billy Edwards Jr.’s status is still up in the air at the time of writing, and the run game is what crushed Bama against the Seminoles. I expect this to be a slow-paced dog fight, and I’ve got the Badgers looking to make a statement keeping this thing within 3 touchdowns.

Wisconsin vs Alabama prediction: Wisconsin +20.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The Alabama Crimson Tide offense looked like a well-oiled machine in a 73-0 win in Week 2, though it was against a far inferior ULM opponent. This time around, Bama faces the best defensive unit it’s seen to date as the Wisconsin Badgers rank top-3 in total defense, 7th in sacks per game (4.0) and 4th in rushing defense. Alabama really struggled moving the ball in the run game against Florida State, and I expect that to be the case against the Badgers’ elite front seven. This is a Wisconsin team that has done a fantastic job of limiting mistakes, ranking 2nd in fewest penalties while also ranking 10th in overall time of possession. Combine that with the Crimson Tide’s relatively troublesome run game, and Bama will likely have to rely on big plays through the air against one of the best secondary units in the Big Ten.

While I expect the Wisconsin defense to present some issues for the Bama offense, the Badgers offense isn’t exactly reliable in this matchup. QB Billy Edwards Jr’s status is still up in the air at the time of writing, and although the run game has been efficient, going up against the Alabama front seven is a much taller task than facing Miami (OH) or MTSU. Despite dominating time of possession through two games, Wisconsin ranks 127th in FBS in plays per second. The tale of the tape calls for this game to be an incredibly slow-paced dog fight, and I’ll take the under.

Wisconsin vs Alabama prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The Missouri State Bears are playing in their first home game as an FBS program, and they’ve got a tough challenge with ACC squad SMU coming into town. The Bears had a rude awakening to the big leagues in a 60-point loss against USC, but pulled off the outright upset over Marshall last week and moved the ball extremely well via their passing game. I expect the Bears to pull out all the stops for this one, and the SMU secondary is extremely susceptible to big passing plays. The Mustangs gave up 440 yards through the air last week and ranks 81st in defensive passing efficiency despite having a cupcake game against East Texas A&M in Week 1.

Now, it would take a heck of a performance from the Missouri State defense to keep up with the Mustangs, and after giving up 73 against the only Power 5 opponent of the season thus far, it’s hard to have faith in the Bears’ defense. It’s no secret that SMU can light up the scoreboard, as the Mustangs have already posted 87 points in 2 games. Kevin Jennings is a big-time playmaker at quarterback, and the high-flying style of offense the Mustangs run should give Missouri State fits. SMU has made a habit of getting into shootouts in recent history, and I’ll follow the trend by taking the over in this spot.

SMU vs Missouri State prediction: Over 61 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The 2nd ranked team in the nation, the Penn State Nittany Lions, will welcome the Villanova Wildcats this week as they try to move to 3-0. This will be Penn State’s final tune-up game before heading into conference play against Oregon after a bye week. The Nittany Lions have defeated Nevada and Florida International University in their first 2 contests. Senior quarterback Drew Allar has looked the part early this season, throwing for 417 yards and 3 touchdowns in his first 2 games. Senior running back Kaytron Allen looks ready to go as well, rushing for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 24 attempts. Villanova won their only game of the season 24-17 against Colgate. Wildcats’ quarterback, Pat McQuaide threw for 299 yards and 1 touchdown in the victory. 

This will be one of college football’s most lopsided spreads this weekend. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to tell how much pressure Penn State will put on their opponent and for how long in this game. So far this season, Penn State is 2-0, but they are 0-2 against the spread in games that have a similar outlook as this game. Penn State has been solid, but there have been inconsistencies in the first 2 games when considering their standards. Against Nevada, the passing game was great, but running the ball had its challenges. While against FIU, the rushing game went well, while passing the ball was inconsistent. With a huge, marquee matchup coming up next for Penn State against Oregon, I don’t believe that the Nittany Lions will open up the full playbook this week against Villanova. Villanova has the capability to be at least as good as Penn State’s first 2 opponents. 

Villanova vs Penn State prediction: Villanova +48.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Old Dominion Monarchs head to Blacksburg looking to add to the headaches of the Virginia Tech Hokies and their faithful. Old Dominion has been a thorn in the side of Virginia Tech since these two started playing each other back in 2017. Old Dominion has won outright twice, although each of those upsets took place in Norfolk. Virginia Tech posted a 37-17 victory last season in the Tidewater, but the way things are looking in Blacksburg, ODU is quite attractive.

Old Dominion has covered both of its games so far, including a 27-14 loss at Indiana to open the season. The Hoosiers needed a punt return for touchdown in that one, as the 2024 playoff participants had their hands full with the Monarchs. Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry is on the hot seat, and it will be turned up to Venus-like temperatures if he can’t dispatch the Monarchs. Virginia Tech lost 24-11 to South Carolina in a neutral-site game to open, and it was blown out 44-20 against perennial SEC doormat Vanderbilt last week in Blacksburg. The Hokies are 0-2 ATS so far, and winless outright. It’s hard to believe, but Old Dominion looks like the more cohesive unit, and it is the play on the road, unless Va. Tech shows some consistency.

Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech prediction: Old Dominion +6 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

This game comes down to perception. On the surface, Eastern Michigan looks like a team you’d never want to back. The Eagles enter 0-2 this season, riding a 7-game losing streak overall with just 1 cover in that stretch. They are 0-5 against the number in their last 5 and have been a liability for bettors dating back to last year. Given that narrative, EMU looks like an automatic fade — a cupcake waiting to get flattened by a bigger program. But perception cuts both ways. Because nobody wants Eastern Michigan, the line is inflated by default. Numbers are shaded higher to entice action, and that creates inherent value on the Eagles. What feels like a hopeless ticket often ends up being the right side in these situations.

Kentucky, meanwhile, is coming off a gritty performance against Ole Miss. The Wildcats pushed the Rebels for 4 quarters, covering easily as 8.5-point underdogs in a 23-17 loss. At one point, UK even held a double-digit lead. That showing made Kentucky a “sharp” play last week, and it rewarded backers. But here’s the problem: the window has closed. This week, jumping on Kentucky is simply playing into the market’s hands. The Wildcats’ strong effort against Ole Miss combined with EMU’s unattractive profile makes the Wildcats look like a sure bet. Oddsmakers know that, and they’ve padded the line accordingly. The result is an inflated spread that doesn’t match the true gap between these teams. Eastern Michigan doesn’t need to win, and it doesn’t need to look good doing it. The Eagles just need to avoid getting buried. If that happens, Eastern Michigan gets us to the window — the fact they are taking back an inflated number makes that possibility ever more probable.

Eastern Michigan vs Kentucky prediction: Eastern Michigan +23.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +23.

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The 1-1 Iowa Hawkeyes are set to welcome in the 0-2 Massachusetts Minutemen this week into Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes suffered a 16-13 rivalry loss to the Iowa State Cyclones last weekend. Quarterback Mark Gronowski threw for 83 yards and had a rushing touchdown, while Jaziun Patterson was their leading rusher with 60 yards on 11 carries. Massachusetts is coming off a tough 27-26 loss against the Bryant Bulldogs in their previous game. The Minutemen were 16.5-point home favorites but ended up falling short after a late field goal put Bryant ahead. UMass is a heavy underdog heading into Iowa City.

Iowa was similarly a large favorite in week one against Albany. The Hawkeyes prevailed 34-7 but failed to cover a spread of -39.5. Gronowski failed to exceed 100 yards passing, only throwing for 44 yards on 15 attempts. He did manage to run for another 39 yards on 11 attempts. With this style of offense, I don’t believe the Hawkeyes are built to be blowing opponents out by 5 touchdowns. Their style is to control the time of possession with the run and play good defense. This line did happen to go up with the news of Massachusetts quarterback Brandon Rose set to miss his second straight game, but overall I don’t believe that will play a large role. Senior quarterback Grant Jordan filled in nicely against Bryant, throwing for 211 yards on 60% completion. The story is Iowa’s offense. I believe some fans will want to see the Hawkeyes open up the offense and try to work in big plays for Gronowski, but I believe we see another game in which the Hawkeyes’ staff keeps this game somewhat tight but overpowering the opposition with the run game.

UMass vs Iowa prediction: UMass +35 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Boasting 2-0 records with mutual wins over Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt and South Carolina open conference play against one another this week. Vanderbilt has certainly passed the eye test offensively more than South Carolina to this point, yet the Gamecocks are giving 5 points in what figures to be an electric atmosphere under the lights at Williams Brice Stadium on Saturday. South Carolina has controlled this series of late, churning out 16 straight victories over Vanderbilt dating back to 2009. Going one step further, the Gamecocks have covered this number in 12 of the 16 wins, including last year’s 28-7 victory – in which they held the Commodores to 7 points and 274 yards. 

Vandy has revenge on its mind, as admitted by Diego Pavia in a Barstool interview when he was asked which game he has circled on this year’s schedule. However, I still give the edge to the Gamecocks in this matchup for a few reasons, starting with the quarterback position. While I acknowledge Pavia is a gamer, he’s not in the same tier as LaNorris Sellers. Everything Pavia can do on the field, Sellers can do better. Second, South Carolina is not only better defensively than Vandy, but better than any opponent Vandy has seen to this point. Dylan Stewart will likely draw plenty of attention from Vanderbilt’s offensive line, which should allow Bryan Thomas Jr. to continue thriving opposite of him. Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy and Fred Johnson have stepped up against the run, and the experience-laden secondary has been very strong in coverage – albeit against bad offenses. 

Finally, this is a tough spot for Vanderbilt situationally. I realize the revenge angle, but this will be the second consecutive true road game under the lights for the Commodores. Not many visiting teams fare well at night in Williams Brice Stadium. In fact, the Gamecocks are 12-4 ATS at home in games that kick off at 6:00pm ET or later under Shane Beamer. Three of those losses against the spread were as underdogs, and the other was last week as a 42.5-point favorite against SC State – a game in which the Gamecocks were admittedly flat and likely looking ahead. Don’t expect another uninspiring performance from South Carolina here. Gamecocks win and cover. 

Vanderbilt vs South Carolina prediction: South Carolina Gamecocks -5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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The Utah Utes travel to Laramie to face the Wyoming Cowboys on Saturday night. Utah was picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Big 12 in the preseason, mostly because of a lot of unknowns. But the Utes are off to a hot start, including smashing UCLA by more than 30 points in the opener. Wyoming is coming off a 3-9 season, and I would not be entirely certain the Cowboys will do much better this year if they didn’t already have 2 wins under their belt and get to avoid Boise State on the conference schedule. Still, I think Utah is much, much better — so I am backing the Utes to cover on Saturday, although I think we might want to be cautious since this is a classic road-game trap spot.

Wyoming has a very straightforward approach to the game: keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, and when you do have to throw it, throw it to the tight end. Indeed, the best player on the team is TE John Michael Gyllenborg. The problem with that approach is that Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham always has an elite defense, and this one might be one of his best. I don’t see the Cowboys finding much of any success against this Utes defense. On the other side of the ball, the Wyoming defense was one of the worst in the country last year — and that is bad news when facing a better-than-expected Utah offense. Cam Rising is (finally) gone, and they have moved on to Devon Dampier at QB. Dampier came over to Utah with his coach and new OC from New Mexico, where Dampier was the nation’s leading rushing QB that wasn’t at a service academy. That is a great fit for Utah’s run option offense, especially behind an offensive line in which all 5 guys returned from last year’s squad. I think Utah can be really good this year, and although Laramie is an oddly difficult place to play, the separation between these 2 teams is vast.

Utah vs Wyoming prediction: Utah -23.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Boston College Eagles head to the west coast to battle the Stanford Cardinal, looking to add to their woes. The Eagles picked up a 66-10 victory at home on Aug. 30 against FCS Fordham, covering as a 35-point favorite, before falling in an epic 42-40 double-overtime game at Michigan State last Saturday. The over has cashed in both games for the Eagles, while going 2-0 against the spread (ATS).

Meanwhile, Stanford played on the road in the first 2 weekends, falling at Hawaii 23-20 in Week 0, while losing at BYU 27-3 last Saturday. The Cardinal are 0-2 ATS in those 2 losses, while cashing the under in both games. The Cardinal have the defense to stay close in games, but the offense is still a work in progress. Stanford has managed just 11.5 PPG so far, and only a field goal in last week’s setback. Stanford was good for just 161 total yards, and 19 rushing yards. That’s not going to cut the mustard. The good news is that the Cardinal D held the Cougars to just 332 total yards, and 175 passing yards, while limiting BYU to 3.8 rush yards per attempt. Stanford was minus-3 in turnover ratio. If it can clean up those miscues, it should be able to stay within two touchdowns against a visitor making the cross-country trek.

Boston College vs Stanford prediction: Stanford +13.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable at +12.5.

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The Texas State Bobcats have fired out of the chute, winning 52-27 against a bad Eastern Michigan team on Aug. 30, while pulling off an impressive 43-36 road victory over UTSA in the Alamodome as a 4.5-point underdog. The offense has been phenomenal, averaging 47.5 points per game (PPG), while the defense has conceded 31.5 PPG. That’s been a recipe for the over, and it hasn’t really even been close. QB Brad Jackson has racked up 500 passing yards with 5 touchdowns, while RB Lincoln Pare has posted 239 yards and a pair of scores. WR Beau Sparks leads Texas State with 237 receiving yards and 5 scores through the air.

For the Sun Devils, they’re smarting after a 24-20 loss at Mississippi State as a 5.5-point road favorite last weekend in Stark Vegas. The Sun Devils, a playoff team from a season ago, has failed to cover the spread in either of its 2 games to date. The Sun Devils have allowed 21.5 PPG, too, and we could see plenty of points in the desert in this underrated game on the late-night schedule. If you’re into Same-Game Parlays (SGPs), take the over and Texas State with the points. We’ll take the Bobcats with the points in a high-scoring affair.

Texas State vs Arizona State prediction: Texas State +17.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +16.5.

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The Clemson Tigers dropped their opening game at home in primetime against LSU, accumulating just 261 yards and averaging a paltry 1.6 yards per rush attempt. Things didn’t get much better in Week 2 against Troy, as Clemson faced a 16-3 deficit at halftime. The Tigers ended up winning 27-16, but they totaled only 316 yards and still averaged fewer than 4 yards per rush attempt. Even without wide receiver Antonio Williams, who was out for both games due to a hamstring issue, you expect those offensive numbers to be better against Troy.

The Yellow Jackets clawed their way to victory at Colorado in Week 1 after they turned the ball over on their opening 3 possessions. When they weren’t turning the ball over, the Jackets looked good, racking up 6.8 yards per rush attempt and more than 460 total yards of offense. They carried that momentum forward to Week 2 and took care of business against FCS Gardner-Webb despite quarterback Haynes King missing the contest. King looked beat up at the end of the Colorado game, so I’m not surprised the coaching staff held him out of the FCS game. However, I expect him to play in this game, especially considering the line movement we’ve seen early in the week. Money has poured in on GT, dropping the line from 6 – where it briefly sat after opening – all the way to where it is now around 3.5 points. I don’t believe the line would have moved that much if there was any doubt about King’s availability. 

Williams returning to the field would be a big boost for Clemson’s offense, though I am alarmed by what we’ve seen from the Tigers to this point. Through 2 games, the Tigers are 79th in yards per play and 119th in PPA per play, which is a far cry from what we expected from them this season. Moreover, they’ve had very little success running the ball – even against an inferior opponent in Troy – which does not bode well for the Tigers in a true road game to open conference play. For reference, the Tigers are outside the top 100 in PPA per rush and rushing explosiveness through 2 games. 

Expecting Georgia Tech to have a more successful ground game, the Jackets should be able to string together multiple methodical drives and limit Clemson’s time of possession. I power rate this game around 2 points, so I still perceive there to be value on Georgia Tech at this current price and will take the points with the Jackets. Don’t be afraid to sprinkle on the ML, as it wouldn’t surprise me to see an outright Georgia Tech win.

Clemson vs Georgia Tech prediction: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +3.5 (-110) available at publishing. Playable to 2

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The market disagrees on this total. You can find 53.5 at some books, while others are hanging 54.5s juiced to the under. That’s the way I lean in this contest, as I expect the Yellow Jackets and the Tigers to have a methodical offensive approach.

Georgia Tech has consistently deployed a run-heavy gameplan in recent years, and I don’t expect that to change this week. In fact, I expect the Jackets to lean into that approach in an attempt to shorten the game and limit Clemson’s possessions. A lot was made of the returning talent in Clemson’s defensive front, but the Tigers have not lived up to the hype just yet – as they are outside the top 50 in PPA per rush, rush success rate, and rush explosiveness through 2 games. These struggles should put Georgia Tech in manageable third down situations, where the Yellow Jackets can open the playbook and extend drives while simultaneously eating clock. 

Meanwhile, Clemson’s offense is in shambles and rates near the bottom of the country in PPA and success rate through 2 games. The Tigers will eventually wake up, but I can’t bring myself to bet an over in any Clemson game until we see the Tigers perform better offensively, so I lean to the under in this ACC showdown.

Clemson vs Georgia Tech prediction: Under 54.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 54.

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The Temple Owls rank top-20 in both total defense and total offense through two weeks of football and host the Oklahoma Sooners for what will serve essentially as the Owls’ Super Bowl this season. I expect Temple to be up for this matchup, but the Owls’ recent success has come against UMass and Howard, quite the stark contrast in competition level when matching up with Oklahoma, who has already battled a tough Michigan squad. While I don’t expect Temple to necessarily light things up, scoring multiple touchdowns is certainly a feasible task as the Sooners’ front seven has been a slight weak spot. The rushing defense surrendered 146 yards on the ground against Michigan, and allowed FCS Illinois State to rush for 4.5 yards per carry. Furthermore, the Sooners D has generated only 3 sacks through 2 games.

The Temple offense has moved the ball well, ranking 15th in 20+ yard plays across FBS in 2025. I expect the Owls to put up some points, but the Sooners offense should run rampant on this Temple defense yet to face a Power 5 opponent. QB John Mateer appears to be a legitimate Heisman contender and the pure talent in skill positions surrounding him will be a tall task for Temple. With all things considered, I’m backing both offenses in this spot and will take the over.

Oklahoma vs Temple prediction: Over 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Naturally, there’s built-in FBS bias at play here. Maryland, as a Power Four program, gets the benefit of perception; Towson automatically takes back an inflated number. That’s the starting point for this handicap — the Tigers are priced up simply because of who they are, not what they’re capable of. Now, if this was lacrosse, the conversation would be very different. Towson and Maryland have one of the fiercest rivalries in that sport, and the animosity carries across other athletic programs, football included. On the gridiron, however, Maryland has had the upper hand. The Terrapins have won the last 3 meetings in the series, and Towson hasn’t posed much of a threat. That history makes the Tigers an easy target for the market to fade.

Maryland’s start to the season only reinforces that narrative. The Terps cruised through Florida Atlantic and Northern Illinois, flexing their depth and speed in the process. From the outside looking in, this appears to be just another routine tune-up in which Maryland rolls over an FCS opponent. But that line of thinking is exactly what fuels the bias that creates value on the other side. Towson enters with nothing to lose. They’ll treat this as more than a pay-check game—it’s an intrastate rivalry with added emotion. For Maryland, this is business as usual; for Towson, it’s a chance to make noise against their big brother. That imbalance in motivation matters. At the end of the day, Maryland is the bigger, deeper program — but football rarely hinges on talent alone. The game hinges on effort, focus and situational value. Towson brings the latter in spades, while the Terps are already looking ahead to Big Ten play. Let’s take the points with the Tigers.

Towson vs. Maryland prediction: Towson +29.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Look-ahead spots seem to be a theme in Week 3, and Auburn fits the mold perfectly. On deck for the Tigers is a massive showdown with Oklahoma, a game that will carry both conference and Top 25 implications. That matchup is the priority. The onus this week isn’t on Auburn to win emphatically, but simply to handle business and avoid injuries before heading to Norman.

Head coach Hugh Freeze understands the stakes. He isn’t likely to show much on tape with the Sooners looming, which makes Auburn coasting through this contest the most probable scenario. That leaves a wide opening for South Alabama to sneak in under the number.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, aren’t a pushover. This is a program that has consistently played winning football in recent seasons and will be fully up for this challenge. Just last week, South Alabama went toe-to-toe with Tulane in a 33–31 shootout, a game they will feel they should have won. The Jaguars can score at a good clip, and while Auburn’s defense looks formidable on paper, it only takes a few successful drives to flip the math. If USA can post 2 or 3 touchdowns, Auburn would need to score into the 40s to cover this spread. We are not sure Auburn cares about doing that, as the biggest game in recent memory sits on the horizon. With Oklahoma looming, Auburn has little incentive to push the pace or pour on points late. Style points won’t matter nearly as much as getting to next week ready to roll against a vastly improved Oklahoma team.

South Alabama brings enough offense to stay competitive for stretches and enough fight to push Auburn in sequences. Add in the situational dynamics, and this is the perfect environment for the underdog to come in under the number.

South Alabama vs. Auburn prediction: South Alabama +25.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 25.

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