College Football Picks

This play is a straight fade of Utah State, a team whose profile screams regression. The Aggies are an eye-popping 10-2 against the spread this season, and that kind of sustained profitability almost always invites correction — especially in bowl season, where lines tighten. The question bettors should be asking is simple: why is Washington State an underdog here at all? This is a Cougars team that went into Oxford and pushed Ole Miss to the brink, had a real shot to upset Virginia in Charlottesville, and had James Madison on the ropes in Harrisonburg. Those are CFP-level programs or teams that played for Power 4 conference titles with a chance to get into the playoff. Utah State does not fill that bill.

Utah State’s favoritism here is driven almost entirely by market memory. They’ve been a cash cow all season, so the assumption is they’ll keep printing money. That’s dangerous thinking in a bowl game, where past ATS success is priced in and often overvalued. If Washington State shows up with the same edge and intensity they displayed against elite competition, this matchup is theirs to lose. Utah State isn’t equipped to withstand that version of the Cougars — plain and simple. I believe the wrong side is favored in this one, and I’m looking to take advantage.

Washington State vs Utah State prediction: Cougars ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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Tuesday’s bowl slate takes us to Boca Raton, Florida for the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl, featuring the Toledo Rockets and the Louisville Cardinals. Toledo finished 4^th in the MAC, but the Rockets closed the regular season on a 4-game winning streak to get themselves to Florida for bowl season. Louisville briefly flirted with the top of the ACC standings before losing its final 3 conference games. They managed to blank in-state rival Kentucky, 41-0, to close on a strong note. Louisville is the more talented team here, so as long as this line stays under a touchdown, I think that is the right play. Give me Louisville -6.5.

In terms of opt-outs and roster changes to be aware of, Louisville is likely to be missing a couple of defenders, and we aren’t sure who will dress for them at running back because of injuries. Quarterback Miller Moss flirted with opting out, but he appears ready to go after all. Louisville is decently stable as far as bowl rosters go. Toledo lost their coach, who took the job at UConn. That hasn’t brought as many transfers and opt-outs as you would expect, but the coaching change alone is significant. The bottom line here is that whenever Toledo has stepped outside the MAC this season (Wash St, Kentucky), they have struggled, and they have especially been unable to run the ball against bigger defenders. Louisville is better (and stronger) than both those opponents. I think the Rockets will struggle to generate offense here. I’ll take the Cardinals, as long as it is under a touchdown.

Toledo vs Louisville prediction: Louisville Cardinals -6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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At first glance, this total looks inviting for an over. UNLV plays fast, scores in bunches, and invites track meets. Ohio, meanwhile, has enough offensive competence to exploit the Rebels’ porous defense. On the surface, it makes sense why the market expects fireworks. But this matchup sets up far differently once you peel back the layers. Ohio’s path to success is not through scoring — it’s through pace and ball control. The Bobcats defend at a higher level, allowing just 22 points per game, and they are perfectly comfortable shortening the contest. To keep the Rebs in check, the Cats will milk the play clock, lean on long possessions, and prioritize field position. That approach directly limits UNLV’s biggest strength: explosive volume.

UNLV’s offense thrives when it gets repeated cracks. When possessions are reduced, their margin shrinks — and we’ve already seen their defense struggle to get off the field. If Ohio is competitive, it won’t be because they traded scores. It will be because they slowed the game, chewed clock, and forced UNLV to operate with fewer drives. There’s also clear correlation here. Ohio covering — or threatening to win outright — almost demands a lower-scoring environment. A shootout benefits the Rebels, not the Bobcats. Thus, if Ohio covers as we prognosticated, or if they even win here, the over becomes a long climb.

UNLV vs Ohio prediction: Under 65 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ohio has quietly become an afterthought. Once the Bobcats slipped out of the MAC title picture, the market stopped paying attention. UNLV, meanwhile, continues to receive respect by default after a 10-win season and a Mountain West title game appearance. But reputation and results are not the same thing — and this matchup exposes that gap. UNLV has been flawed all season. The Rebels are explosive offensively, averaging 35 points per game, but they remain one of the weakest defensive units among bowl-caliber teams, surrendering nearly 29 points per contest. Boise State — an offense that has struggled with consistency all year — put up 38 on UNLV just two weeks ago. That wasn’t an outlier. It was the norm. This is a team that has been clipped for 35 or more in five of their last ten games.

Ohio is built differently. The Bobcats play defense, allowing just 22 points per game, and their offense is capable of scoring efficiently without needing chaos or broken coverages. This isn’t an overmatched service academy or an FCS opponent that folded late like UNLV has faced previously. Ohio is structured, disciplined, and capable of playing four quarters. The market has pushed this number upward because of UNLV’s stature, not its reliability. That creates value on the Cats. UNLV is not a team you want to lay points with in a game like this — especially against a defense that won’t hand them easy possessions. Ohio can win this outright. Taking the points is the smart play.

UNLV vs Ohio prediction: Ohio ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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