College Football Picks

The Buffalo Bulls hit the road for Mount Pleasant to battle the Central Michigan Chippewas at Kelly/Shorts Stadium, and the winner will secure bowl eligibility. The Bulls are 4-1 in the conference, just a half-game behind Western Michigan, who won Tuesday, for first place. The Bulls rolled Bowling Green 28-3 last time out on Nov. 1, cashing as a 3-point underdog, but they’re still 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven games. On the road, Buffalo is a dismal 1-2 ATS in three games in the conference, too. The Bulls have a rather mediocre offense, going for 24.8 PPG, while the defense has been the key to their success, allowing just 19.6 ppg.

The Chips lost at Western Michigan against their biggest rivalry, covering as a 6-point underdog in a 24-21 setback. Central Michigan has racked up three consecutive covers, while going 5-1 ATS in the past 6 contests. While Buffalo has won 3 of the past 4 meetings in this series, and 3-1 ATS in that span, Central won the most recent meeting at home, 31-27 on Nov. 9, 2022. Central Michigan is on fire lately, and cashing well against the number. If this game were in Buffalo, it might end differently, but venue matters. Back the home side on Wednesday.

Buffalo vs Central Michigan prediction: Central Michigan -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

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The Northern Illinois Huskies and Massachusetts Minutemen meet Wednesday night at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Amherst, Massachusetts, and neither of these teams are eligible for a bowl, so they’re just playing out the string. NIU was humbled 42-3 last time out at Toledo, coming nowhere near a cover as a 16.5-point underdog, and the Huskies are just 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in the past seven games. A reason they’ve struggled so much lately, allowing 42 or more points in the past two games, and 38 or more points on the road in three of the past four outings. The Over has cashed in two in a row on the road, while going 3-2 in the past five outings.

UMass has had another awful season, as the defense just hasn’t made any inroads. It has allowed 41.0 PPG in the past two games, and 27 or more points in four in a row, and eight of nine games this season. At home, the Over is 3-1 in four games. Defensively, the Minutemen have allowed 441.8 total yards, 253.2 passing yards and 188.6 rushing yards with 36.8 points per game this season. Each of those marks are among the worst in the nation. Even NIU, which has struggled offensively, should be able to toss up at least 30 points, and UMass should be able to get theirs, too, against a Huskies defense not playing well lately.

Northern Illinois vs UMass prediction: Over 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5.

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The Toledo Rockets hit the road to battle the Miami Redhawks at Yager Stadium in Oxford, Ohio. The winner of this game will clinch bowl eligibility, but Miami has bigger goals. It is 4-1 inside the Mid-American Conference, a half-game back of Western Michigan, who won Tuesday night, for first place in the league. It is trying to get back to the MAC Championship Game in Detroit, and it likely needs to win out. The Redhawks have former Toledo QB Dequan Finn under center. He started three seasons at Toledo from 2021-23, and the dual threat has passed for 1,451 yards, 9 touchdowns and 6 picks with 395 rushing yards and 4 scores.

The Rockets go on the road, and that’s where their trouble has been. Toledo crushed Northern Illinois 42-3 at home last week in the Glass Bowl, covering as a 16.5-point favorite, but it lost 28-7 at Washington State on Oct. 25 in the most recent road game. It has dropped all four previous road games, while going 0-3 against the spread in the past three away from home, including two conference road games. Toledo has won and covered the past 3 regular-season meetings, with Miami winning 23-14 in the MAC Championship Game against Toledo on Dec. 2, 2023. Let’s back Miami playing at home, as Finn looks to beat his former school.

Toledo vs Miami (Ohio) prediction: Miami (OH) ML (+160) available at time of publishing. Playable to +140.

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We have Friday night ACC action as the Clemson Tigers face the Louisville Cardinals. When this game was first scheduled, I am sure people thought it would be important for different reasons, as Clemson was expected to be a playoff contender, not Louisville. But the Tigers have been a massive disappointment, as is well documented, sitting at 5-4 and fighting for mere bowl eligibility. The Cardinals took a big setback last week when they dropped a home game to Cal. That dropped the Cardinals to 7-2 overall, including 2 conference losses, and trailing 5 teams with only a single loss. Louisville will have to work hard to avoid the letdown spot here, but I think they are the better team, so I am backing the Cardinals at home to cover -3.

Perhaps the biggest problem for Clemson this season has been their inability to stop the passing game. They actually rank outside the top 100 in terms of passing yards allowed per game. Louisville should be able to find some big plays in the passing game. I look for that to be the difference in the game. The Louisville defense is stout, and they have held up against good opponents like Miami, Virginia, and Pitt, and I think all of those offenses are more dangerous than this year’s Clemson offense. Playing at home on a Friday night with a short line looks like a good play to me. Give me Louisville -3.

Clemson vs Louisville Prediction: Louisville -3 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

At the time of this writing, over 85% of the early tickets on this game total have been on the under. I think this is a spot where we can fade the majority. Why are people backing the under? I think it has to do with the Clemson defense, and maybe a little to do with the poor Clemson offense. That is, Clemson has held 3 of their last 5 opponents to exactly 10 points—Florida State, BC, and UNC. So the question is this: can they do the same to Louisville? If you think so, then the under is for you. I do not think they can hold Louisville that low, so I am playing the over.

In the other two games, Clemson’s opponents scored much more—SMU posted 35 and Duke 46. I think the Cardinals will fall somewhere in between, but probably in the upper 20s. Louisville should be able to find some big plays in the passing game against a poor Clemson passing defense, and that should be enough to push the scoring. On the other side, the Tiger offense has shown some life after a disastrous start to the season. It is hard to imagine they would finish under 20—a number they have surpassed in every game except the opener against LSU. I am expecting a game more in the 28-24 range, and thus I think this point total is a touch too low. I’ll fade the early bettors and take the over.

Clemson vs Louisville Prediction: Over 50 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We have a Big Ten tilt between a couple of unfamiliar foes on Friday as the Oregon Ducks are set to host the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a game that doesn’t project to be all that close on paper. However, even though I’m not all that high on this Minnesota team, I’m much more inclined to back the Gophers on the road in what is one of the best situational spots on the board in this Week 12 slate. On one side, the Gophers are in the midst of a solid season, having just qualified for bowl eligibility after defeating Michigan State on November 1. Now, with Minnesota coming off a much-needed bye week prior to this extended road trip, PJ Fleck should have his team prepared to play in what is a natural get-up spot for a rested and ready Gophers side. 

Conversely, the Ducks are in a pretty brutal letdown spot after knocking off Iowa on the road in what was arguably the most important win of its season to this point. Now, Dan Lanning’s side will have to travel all the way to the northwest for a bizarre matchup against a new conference foe that they couldn’t possibly care all that much about, all while staring at a massive potential College Football Playoff elimination game against USC on deck. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Ducks come out pretty flat in a spot in which they could still be a bit hungover from last week’s victory in dramatic fashion at Kinnick Stadium. Oregon certainly looks to be one of the 10-12 best teams in the nation to this point, but it’s also worth considering that the Ducks were extremely banged up a week ago and could be without as many as 5 starters on offense this week if those injuries carry over. With that in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Oregon approached this game with a bit more trepidation and kept things pretty close to the vest. As a result, the Gophers could certainly keep things within the number in a game with a fairly low total, so I’ll certainly take the points with Minnesota on Friday. 

Minnesota vs Oregon prediction: Minnesota +26.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 25.5

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The Air Force Falcons and the UConn Huskies will meet in Connecticut on Saturday after a pair of impressive victories in Week 11. Air Force went to San Jose State and won outright as a 6.5-point underdog, holding what had been a high-powered Spartan offense to just 16 points at home despite the Falcons being outgained by 130+ yards. Meanwhile, UConn came through for us at home as 8.5-point underdogs against Duke. Not only did the Huskies cover, but they won outright in overtime, outgaining the Blue Devils 467-390. 

My numbers show a couple points of value on UConn at the current number of -7, but considering how the Huskies laid an egg at Rice after beating Boston College, I’m hesitant to lay the number here with the Huskies – especially considering Air Force hasn’t lost by more than 3 points in over a month. Instead, my focus is on the total, as I have a hard time seeing either defense limiting scoring in this matchup. 

The Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the entire country. They are 123rd in scoring, allowing 33 points per game against FBS opponents, while sitting 133th in total defense – surrendering more than 450 yards per contest. Air Force has been especially bad against the pass, yielding 288.1 passing yards per game (134th) and 9.9 yards per pass attempt (136th) on the season as a whole. Not much has changed in recent weeks, as the Falcons are 111th in PPA per pass and 136th in passing downs PPA since Week 7. This should be music to the ears of UConn QB Joey Fagnano and the Huskies, as UConn has one of the best passing offenses in the country (believe it or not). In fact, The Huskies are 2nd in passing touchdowns, 3rd in total passing yards, and 18th in passer rating this season. 

On the other side of the ball, UConn’s run defense leaves a bit to be desired, which is a disaster against Air Force’s offense. Being that Air Force is a service academy, the Falcons run the ball at one of the top 3 rates in the country, and they are extremely efficient in doing so. Against a UConn defense that sits 110th in PPA per rush and 115th in standard downs PPA, Air Force should be able to move the ball at will.

It’s also worth mentioning that both of these defenses have been absolutely awful in the red zone. Opponents come away with points on over 90% of red-zone trips against both Air Force and UConn, which should pave the way for plenty of points considering these offenses are top-20 in red-zone frequency and top-35 in red-zone scoring percentage. The total is high for a reason here; expect plenty of points.

Air Force vs UConn prediction: Over 63.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 64.5. 

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This number borders on absurd — not because Kansas State isn’t good, but because it’s a clear reflection of just how far the market has pushed Oklahoma State into irrelevance. Anytime you see a line this inflated between two conference opponents, it’s worth asking: Should this favorite really be laying this kind of lumber on the road? Probably not.

Kansas State is priced like a steamroller here because of the Pokes’ infamy. The Cats nevertheless have posted two blowout wins in their last three games and have covered consistently at home and away. The Wildcats did stumble two weeks ago at Texas Tech which is nothing to scoff at, but before that, they routed Kansas by double digits, beating TCU by 13, and handling UCF by 14. They even nearly took down Baylor in Waco. Those results keep their stock high.

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is the exact opposite story. They haven’t covered a game since August. They’ve looked lost, lifeless, and generally stuck in neutral — a team with no head coach or FBS wins to show for its effort and no momentum to lean on. But those are the kinds of teams that create hidden value late in the year. The Cowboys are the quintessential free-rolling underdog: beaten, forgotten, and catching a massively inflated tag because they “look terrible.” We don’t need Oklahoma State to turn into a world-beater overnight — we just need them to show some fight at home against a Kansas State team that’s being priced as though it can do no wrong. Oklahoma State is ugly — but that’s exactly why they’re worth playing. The points are inflated, the market is lopsided, and the setup is pure value.

Michigan’s offense with Bryce Underwood can look flat one week and explosive the next, but when it clicks, it scores in bunches. They’ve cleared 24 points in six of their wins this season, and Northwestern’s defense, while competent, isn’t built to withstand 60 minutes of Michigan’s physicality.

The Wildcats average 21 points per game and allow 19, while Michigan scores 29 and gives up 17. The math doesn’t scream fireworks, but if Michigan clears 24 and covers while doing so — then this game clears the number comfortably. We are not in the score prediction business but there is a pathway to perhaps the Maize and Blue doing most of the heavy lifting here by their optics and metrics alone. We are taking the Over on a deflated number.

This is less about backing Notre Dame and more about fading Pittsburgh. The Panthers have been one of the hottest teams in the country, winning five straight and covering all five in the process. That streak has vaulted them into the Top 25 and put them squarely in the College Football Playoff discussion. The talking heads are all saying the same thing — that the road to the ACC and possibly the playoff runs through Pittsburgh.

The logic is easy to buy into. Pitt faces Notre Dame this week, Georgia Tech next week, and then closes the season against Miami. If they run the table and win the ACC, they’re in the playoff. The market is leaning into that narrative, but the number tells a different story. Despite the hype, despite both teams being ranked, Notre Dame is still laying double digits. That’s not a mistake — it’s a message. The Fighting Irish just demolished Navy 49–10, but the market still refuses to believe they can dominate a ranked opponent like Pittsburgh. The oddsmakers disagree. When a ranked team catching points looks “too good to be true,” it usually is. The Panthers have become a public underdog, and that’s not a role we’re eager to buy into. The side says Notre Dame.

The undefeated Texas A&M Aggies will welcome in the South Carolina Gamecocks this Saturday as they look for their tenth win of the season. Texas A&M has a record of 9-0 and they are 6-0 in SEC Conference games. The Aggies are coming off a 38-17 road win against Missouri. Texas A&M’s offense proved to be too much for the Missouri defense, who needed to play a great game with their starting quarterback out. The Aggies were able to cover a spread of -6.5 behind a dominant day from their offensive line. They ran for a total of 243 yards and 3 touchdowns on 39 attempts. The big men wore out the Missouri defenders as Texas A&M’s running game grew more dominant as the game moved along. South Carolina has a record of 3-6 and a SEC conference record of 1-6. They have lost their last four games including a 30-14 road loss to Ole Miss back on November 1st. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers had a tough evening, throwing for 180 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Sellers is a talented quarterback, but it is difficult for him to find success if his team can’t keep the pressure off of him. Sellers was pressured all day, taking a total of six sacks.

Texas A&M may be one of the most complete teams in college football this season. Their offense is led by quarterback Marcel Reed and running back Rueben Owens II. Reed has thrown for 2193 yards and 21 touchdowns this season, and Owens has run for 542 yards and 5 touchdowns. Both have succeeded behind an excellent offensive line that ranks in the top-10 of most metrics. The Aggies also have a top defense that only allows an average of 189 passing yards per game in a competitive SEC Conference. My eyes are on the Texas A&M defense for this matchup. The Aggies are currently a top-five team in college football in the category of havoc. If we break down that ranking more, they are top-five in tackles for a loss, and top-ten in rushing the passer. Their defense has sacked the opposing quarterback a total of 34 times this season, led by defensive end Cashius Howell with 10.5 sacks. It could be another long game for Sellers. South Carolina has shown they are not equipped to protect their quarterback and the football, ranking 131st in havoc allowed. I have the Aggies as a heavy home favorite.

Texas A&M -19 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The West Virginia Mountaineers will travel this Saturday to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in a Big 12 matchup. West Virginia has a record of 4-6 and a conference record of 2-5. They have won two straight games, including a 29-22 win over Colorado last weekend. The Mountaineers won the game behind freshman quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. Fox threw for 202 and 1 touchdown. West Virginia has now won two out of the three starts by Fox. Fox also led a win against Houston, and his one loss was 23-17 against TCU. Arizona State has a record of 6-3 and a conference record of 4-2. The Sun Devils are coming off a 24-19 win against the Iowa State Cyclones. Quarterback Sam Leavitt missed the game with injury, but Jeff Sims stepped in and threw for 177 yards and 1 touchdown. Sims won the game mostly with his legs, running for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns. The mark set a quarterback rushing record for Arizona State’s school history. The Sun Devils will need another good performance from Sims with Leavitt out for the remainder of the season. 

This will be an intriguing matchup of quarterbacks that did not start the season under center for these schools, but have both taken control of the offense in exciting fashion. Fox is much younger and more inexperienced than Sims. Fox is a true freshman while Sims is in his sixth season of college football. There should be a good amount of ground game in this matchup. In their two wins over Houston and Colorado, West Virginia ran the football efficiently and consistently. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has always favored the running game. West Virginia currently runs the football 57% of the time and they rank 27th in the FBS with 4.5 yards per carry. Arizona State will need to rely on Sims legs again with receiver Jordyn Tyson out with an injury. This game will come down to whoever can tackle better on defense. Sims should be able to find success against a defense that has struggled in the past against dual-threat quarterbacks. Earlier this season, West Virginia gave up 38 points to BYU in a loss, and 48 in a loss to Utah. Both of those teams run a high number of designed quarterback runs and found a lot of success against West Virginia. I expect Arizona State to find similar success.

Arizona State -11.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Iowa’s reputation is built on defense and field position, while USC’s calling card is offense. We don’t know if the former translates but we are certain the latter will. If the Trojans do cover, it’s likely because they turn this into the kind of up-tempo game that forces Iowa to trade scores. Which is not a good look for the Hawkeyes, which is why we like the cover. USC’s defense has been porous enough to allow the Hawkeyes to contribute, and that keeps this number in reach if that happens. If Iowa’s defense stays on the bus because they are reeling from last week’s heartbreaker, we cover this easy. But the question remains which Iowa team shows up to Los Angeles? We know what we get with the Men of Troy and lean into offense, thus going over.

If USC controls the pace and Iowa scores just enough to keep it honest, the scoreboard will cooperate. Moreover, backing the Over correlates with siding with the chalk, so we have that going for us here too. Take the Over.

Iowa vs USC prediction: Over 49.5 (-110), available at time of publishing. Playable to Over 50.

In case you missed it, Penn State suffered one of the most gut-wrenching losses of the season last week. As a 13.5-point underdog, the Nittany Lions nearly shocked the college football world by taking undefeated No. 2 Indiana to the brink in Happy Valley—until a dramatic final drive ended in one of the best catches you’ll ever see. Omar Cooper’s highlight-reel grab sealed a 27–24 Hoosiers win, and with it, broke Penn State’s heart. Losses like that leave a mark. To rebound from such an emotional gut punch is hard enough; to then go on the road and lay points immediately afterward is even tougher. And that’s exactly what the Nittany Lions are being asked to do here.

Enter Michigan State. This is the Battle for the Land Grant Trophy—the historic arch rivalry of both PSU and Sparty. Both teams sit at 3–6, but the circumstances couldn’t be more different. Penn State just had its heart ripped out. Michigan State, meanwhile, is at home, motivated, and staring at the perfect opportunity to catch its rival in a vulnerable spot. Recent history paints an ugly picture. The Spartans have lost the last two meetings by a combined score of 87–16, and that’s exactly why this line looks the way it does. The market expects more of the same. But this time around, the setup is different. Penn State is wounded, both emotionally and physically, and the Spartans know it. For Michigan State, this is the season. It’s a shot at redemption, a chance to salvage pride, and an opportunity to turn the tide in this series. Motivation will be high, and with a touchdown cushion at home against a fragile opponent, that’s more than enough to make Sparty live here.

Penn State vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State +7 (-110), available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.