College Football Picks

The FIU Panthers take the trip to Missouri State to tangle with the Bears. FIU is looking to avoid its third conference loss, and fifth overall, which would all but end any hope of a conference championship, while taking a big hit to the bowl possibility. FIU had lost back-to-back games by 22 or more points to Delaware and UConn Sept. 20-Oct. 4, but it surprised Western Kentucky as a 10-point underdog Oct. 14. However, FIU was back to its losing ways in a 45-26 loss to Kennesaw State. The Panthers have allowed 38 or more points in each of the past 3 games, and 28 or more points in 5 of the past 6 outings.

For Missouri State, it was trampled 73-13 at USC in the opener. That was the last over result, as the under has connected in six in a row for the Bears. The Missouri State run game is terrible, going for just 106.3 rushing yards per game, and it scores just 22.0 PPG. On defense, the Bears are decent, but not great. Don’t expect this to be a defensive slog, but with the struggles of Missouri State on offense, it likely won’t be able to take advantage of the FIU defense like most others do. We’ll roll with the under on Wednesday.

FIU vs Missouri State prediction: Under 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.5.

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The Jacksonville State Gamecocks head to Murfreesboro looking to stay unbeaten in Conference USA play against the struggling Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. This is not the place Jacksonville State can afford to stub its toe, if it hopes to keep it conference championship game appearance hopes alive. The Gamecocks have struggled on the road, winning just once in four tries this season, but it did post a 29-27 win at Sam Houston on Oct. 9 in the most recent try on the road. And, an impressive 38-25 win over Delaware two weeks ago helped Jax State cover as 3-point underdogs, halting an 0-4 against the spread skid.

The Gamecocks have had two full weeks to rest bumps and bruises, including QB Caden Creel, who has been nursing an arm injury. Whether or not Creel is ready, or it is former Rutgers and Kentucky QB Gavin Wimsatt starting, doesn’t matter. Middle Tennessee has been bad, losing all three games at home, while going 1-2 ATS in those outings. One of the losses came by 20 points against FCS Austin Peay, too. However, while all of that sounds grim, the Blue Raiders have been better lately, and the past three losses have each been by one score, and an average of just 4.3 points per game. Be careful here, and proceed with caution. However, Jacksonville State is the better team, and it should get the job done.

Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee prediction: Jacksonville State -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

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We are hanging out in the Sun Belt for some midweek football as the Marshall Thundering Herd take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. Both teams have been playing well of late, and both come into this game off a bye. The Chants have won 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4, most recently beating Appy State in a shootout. The Herd have also won 2 in a row, defeating Texas State and Old Dominion. This game opened at Marshall -4, but it has quickly steamed up to -5.5, and pro betters seem to be all over this one. I think that is the best play in this game, and I am backing Marshall -5.5.

For the Herd, this was supposed to be a lost season and a total rebuild. Only a year ago, their head coach left and nearly the entire roster hit the transfer portal, forcing them to opt out of their bowl game despite winning the conference title game. Yet they have rebuilt quickly and competitively nonetheless. Their offense has been electric, scoring at least 38 points in 5 straight games. Their defense has been solid too, and that might be the reason they can cover in this spot. Coastal has survived on some very fortunate turnover luck lately, and they have been running through QBs this season. I don’t love their current option, and I think Marshall is better right now on both sides of the ball. Give me the Thundering Herd to cover on Thursday.

Marshall vs Coastal Carolina Prediction: Marshall -5.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Following a mutual bye week, the Tulane Green Wave will hit the road for an American Athletic Conference showdown with the UTSA Roadrunners. The Green Wave have lived up to the hype thus far, boasting a 6-1 overall record with its lone blemish being at Ole Miss. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners are 3-4 overall, and their wins came against FCS Incarnate Word, 2-win Colorado State, and Rice. 

Coming into the year, I had much higher hopes for the Roadrunners – specifically on offense with QB Owen McCown. However, they’ve disappointed for much of the year, sitting outside the top 100 in turnover margin, penalties per game and third-down conversion rate against FBS opponents on the season as a whole. UTSA has surpassed 21 points just once in its last 4 outings, which is a stark difference from last season’s offensive explosion. 

The Roadrunners’ recent struggles may be linked to their inability to protect the ball. UTSA has committed multiple turnovers in 3 of its 4 recent games and ranks 132 in havoc allowed outside of garbage time over the last 5 weeks. That’s going to make things a lot more difficult when hosting a rested Tulane squad led by Jon Sumrall. 

The Green Wave are top-25 in havoc generated since the end of September and currently sit top-35 in takeaways per game against FBS opponents. Needless to say, they’re going to be a stiff test for McCown and company, which wouldn’t be comforting if I was a UTSA fan given McCown’s 6 turnover-worthy plays in his last 4 games. That’s not to say Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff has been much better in that department, because he hasn’t (6 turnover-worthy plays in the last 3 games). However, Tulane’s 2 most recent opponents were East Carolina and Army, which are the other top-3 defenses in the AAC along with Tulane. I can at least somewhat justify turnover-worthy plays against good defenses, not against the likes of Colorado State, Temple and North Texas. 

Speaking of good defenses, Tulane has one. In fact, the Green Wave lead the AAC in scoring defense, having surrendered just 50 combined points across 3 conference games. They currently sit top-15 nationally in points allowed per quality drive since Week 5, and they are best against the pass – ranking top 20 in both passing downs PPA and PPA per pass in that same span of time. From a college quarterback perspective, this is a very interesting matchup, but it’s Tulane’s defense that separates the Green Wave from the Roadrunners in this one. Lay the points with Sumrall and the Wave on the road, a spot that Sumrall has excelled in as a college head coach.

Tulane vs UTSA prediction: Tulane Green Wave -3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable -4 (-110).

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Memphis cracked into the Top 25 rankings in both The Associated Press and Coaches Polls, stunning USF last week at the Liberty Bowl. Now, the hunter becomes the hunted, as the ranked Tigers look to avoid the upset against the ground-oriented Owls at Rice Stadium. Memphis is not only 7-1 SU, but it is 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in eight games, going 4-1 ATS in five games as a double-digit favorite. However, that lone non-cover came in a 31-24 loss at UAB as a 24-point favorite on Oct. 18, so the caution flag is definitely raised. Memphis has allowed 26 or more points in four of the past five outings, too, but the good job is that the Tigers allow just 130.3 yards per game on the ground, ranking 50th in the nation.

The run game is the strength of the Rice offense, and it racked up 300 yards on the ground in a 37-34 2OT win over UConn last time out as a 10-point underdog. However, the defense for Rice has struggled mightily, allowing 27 or more points in three in a row, coughing up 122 combined points, or 40.7 PPG. The Over is 5-2 in the past seven games for the Owls. The inability of Rice to stop anybody on defense, combined with the good work of Memphis against the run, will help keep the playoff hopes on track for Memphis. It won’t get tripped up again like it was at UAB. But, it’s even better if you can get this at 13.5 or fewer points.

Memphis -14 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -15.5.

The Sam Houston Bearkats hit the road for Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston, La. for a Conference USA battle with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. It’s been a forgettable season for Sam Houston, as it has lost all seven of its games to date, one of just two teams in FBS with a winless record. UMass is 0-8, just in case you were wondering. Sam Houston’s issues are on defense, mostly, as it cannot stop anybody. The Bearkats have allowed 29 or more points in all seven games, at least 35 points in six of those outings. As such, the Over is a strong play. The Over has cashed in four of the past five games, and that’s with Sam providing just 17 or fewer points in three of the past four games, including a shutout loss in the span.

Louisiana Tech started the season 4-1, but it suffered a 35-7 loss at Kennesaw State on Oct. 9, before it lost a heartbreaking 28-27 OT loss to Western Kentucky last time out. After going 5-0 ATS to start, the Bulldogs are 0-2 ATS in the past two games. That’s why we’re leaning to the Over. While the Under is 3-1 in the past four games for La. Tech, the Over did hit last time out against the Hilltoppers. The Bulldogs have scored 27 or more points in four of the past five games, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Louisiana Tech do most of the heavy lifting to get this Over across the finish line.

Over 49 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 50.5.

The Iowa State Cyclones started this season as a potential college football playoff team. The Cyclones are now just hoping to put an end to their three game losing streak when the Arizona State Sun Devils come to visit this weekend. Iowa State’s losing streak has included a 38-30 loss at Cincinnati, a 24-17 loss at Colorado, and a 41-27 loss at home against BYU last weekend. Quarterback Rocco Becht has struggled during the streak, throwing for 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Arizona State hasn’t done much winning in their last three games as well. The Sun Devils have lost two of their last three games, and now sit with a conference record of 3-2. Arizona State’s last game was a 24-16 loss to Houston. Houston scored the first 24 points of the game and Arizona State did not score until the 4th quarter. Last year’s Big 12 championship matchup is now just two teams trying to get back to their winning ways.

The main storyline for this game will be Arizona State will be without their starting quarterback Sam Leavitt. Leavitt went down with an injury against Houston and is not set to return this week. Leavitt has thrown for 1628 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. He was one of the main contributing factors towards Arizona State’s Big 12 championship last season. Replacing Leavitt will be senior quarterback Jeff Sims. The most prominent time in Sims’ career was in 2020 and 2021 when he started for Georgia Tech. Sims has thrown for over 5000 yards in his college career, so he certainly will be able to comfortably fill the role this Saturday. I have reasonable concerns with Iowa State and their consistency. There are times where they show their greatness, and there are other times where seemingly nothing goes right for this team. Both losses against Cincinnati and BYU, the Cyclones fell into a hole where they allowed their opponent to go on a scoring run of 20 or more unanswered points. Overall, they rank as a middle of the pack offense and defense, and I don’t believe they have done enough to show they are over a touchdown favorite. 

Arizona State +7 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The prevailing storyline here is two teams headed in opposite directions. Clemson has been this year’s disappointment — a preseason darling that some pegged as the best team in the country and a sure bet for the national title. Instead, the Tigers have stumbled to a 3–4 mark, and the calls for Dabo Swinney to ride off into the sunset have gotten louder by the week.

Duke, on the other hand, has earned plenty of respect despite sitting at 4–3. The Blue Devils’ losses came against an undefeated Georgia Tech and a one-loss Tulane team, games where Duke looked more than competent. Against a top-10 Illinois squad, it was the Blue Devils’ own turnovers that did them in. Still, Duke has crushed NC State, Cal, and Syracuse in succession — two of those on the road — and the momentum still seems to be on their side, even after they fell to GT by nine in their last showing two weeks ago.

It’s easy to grab the Dukies plus the field goal and the hook against a listless Clemson, but that’s the trap. The Tigers host this one in Death Valley, and the path to a nine-win season and a bowl berth remains very real with negotiable games ahead against FSU, Louisville, Furman, and South Carolina.

It starts Saturday in Memorial Stadium. Side with the hosts.

Duke vs. Clemson prediction: Clemson -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at number posted.

Both teams are known for their defensive acumen and the disruptive play of their defensive fronts. Each side prefers to establish the run and control tempo, which is always a recipe for an under before we even dig into the details. These are physical, methodical teams that thrive on wearing opponents down rather than lighting up the scoreboard.

Turnovers will play a factor, too. Both Clemson and Duke have been prone to mistakes, but they also feed off takeaways — which often lead to short fields and stalled drives rather than shootouts. It’s hard to envision how either offense finds a path to 55 total points when each has struggled to score consistently against quality defenses.

Clemson’s offense has looked ordinary when facing resistance, and Duke’s production dips noticeably against opponents that can match their line play. When either team has met a defense capable of pushing back, they’ve both struggled to break the 21-point threshold.

This one shapes up as a grind-it-out contest — long drives, field position battles, and plenty of punts. Defenses dictate the pace from start to finish. The under is the prudent play here, and 55 feels a touch too generous.

Duke vs. Clemson prediction: Under 55.5 (-110) available at  time of publishing. Playable to Under 55.

This matchup has all the makings of a scoreboard thriller. Both Miami and SMU boast potent offenses that average north of 30 points per game, and with that kind of firepower on both sidelines, this could easily resemble a basketball game on turf. The total sitting at 51 feels a bit light considering the pace and explosiveness each team brings.

Miami’s defense has earned the “elite” label in some circles, but that reputation deserves scrutiny. Their best numbers have come against a soft early schedule — opponents like Bethune-Cookman (FCS), USF, Florida, and Stanford were all held to single digits. The outlier? A 12-point effort by the Bulls that still didn’t tell us much. Against teams capable of consistently moving the football — Notre Dame and Florida State, for example — the Hurricanes surrendered 21 points or more, squeaking out wins by a combined nine points.

SMU’s ground game mirrors the power and balance of both the Irish and the Seminoles, meaning Miami’s defense is unlikely to pitch another near-shutout. On the other side, the Hurricanes should find plenty of success against a Mustangs defense ranked 112th in Total Defense.

Expect explosive plays, quick scoring drives, and limited resistance on both ends. The Over is the play here — and it might be cashed well before the fourth quarter.

Miami vs. SMU prediction: Over 51.0 (-110) available at  time of publishing. Playable at number posted.

The Miami Hurricanes have proven they’re far from bulletproof. After tossing four interceptions in a costly loss to Louisville — a defeat that came as 13-point home favorites — the Canes now face another tricky matchup against a sneaky SMU squad. On paper, this looks like another opportunity to clobber for Miami, they after all scored 42 unanswered against Stanford last week. But bettors should beware: the Mustangs are far more dangerous than their recent loss to Wake Forest suggests.

SMU may have fallen off the national radar, yet this is still a team with firepower and pride. They rolled through much of last season and are eager to prove that their success wasn’t a one-year wonder. With the game in Abilene, the atmosphere will be electric, and SMU will be amped to showcase its talent on a bigger stage.

Miami’s offense remains explosive, but turnovers and inconsistency have been recurring issues for Quarterback Carson Beck. Laying nearly two touchdowns against a motivated, well-coached team like SMU feels like too tall an order. The Hurricanes could very well win, but the spread gives plenty of room for the Mustangs to cover — and possibly more.

SMU on the money line might tempt the bold, but the smart play here is to grab the points and ride with the Ponies.

Miami vs. SMU prediction: SMU -20 (-110) available at  time of publishing. Playable to +12.

A matchup that was thought of as a potential game of the year is now merely an afterthought to some, as Penn State heads to Columbus to play the Ohio State Buckeyes in the midst of a 4-game losing streak this Saturday. Before the season, when James Franklin was still employed and QB Drew Allar was healthy, the Buckeyes were merely 3.5-point favorites over the Nittany Lions on the lookahead lines, but much has changed since then. Penn State dropped back-to-back games as 3-touchdown favorites and lost its head coach and quarterback in the process. Now, the Nittany Lions are fighting just to make a bowl game much less the College Football Playoff. In order to do that, they will have to win 3 of their remaining 5 games. Considering they play #1 Ohio State this week and #2 Indiana next week, notching 3 wins over the last month or so of the season isn’t exactly going to be easy.

Obviously, this is a massive jump in price considering the circumstances. My numbers show value on Penn State at this price, but I don’t trust that the numbers can adequately quantify the emotional letdown this team – once seen as one of the National Championship favorites – has endured. You could argue the talent is still there to give Ohio State a game, but I have a hard time seeing it. The Nittany Lions failed to surpass 300 total yards in consecutive games against Northwestern and Iowa, and now they have to play against arguably the best defense in the country – one that has surrendered more than 10 points just once and has allowed a total of just 12 first-half points through 7 games. 

The Nittany Lions still have defensive playmakers from a talent perspective, but I question how bought-in this team is. Maybe they will view this as their Super Bowl, but recent defensive trends suggest the Buckeyes should be able to move the ball at-will against this unit. Since Week 5, Penn State’s defense ranks 79th in both PPA per play and points allowed per quality drive. Going one step further, the Nittany Lions have been downright awful on standard downs and against the run recently, sitting 100th in standard downs PPA and 128th in PPA per rush. To make matters even worse, Penn State sits 135th (second-to-last) in havoc generated since the end of September, having forced just 2 turnovers dating back to the Oregon game – a fumble recovery against Northwestern and a fortunate interception on a pass from Iowa QB Mark Gronowski that bounced off his receiver’s hands and was not deemed a turnover-worthy play per PFF.

With OSU QB Julian Sayin budding into a star before our eyes, going up against a Penn State defense that has shown vulnerabilities and failed to force opponents into mistakes, I am inclined to ignore my projections and side with the Buckeyes – and that’s not even accounting for the other side of the ball. How is Penn State going to move the ball on this OSU defense if it can’t move the ball consistently against Northwestern or Iowa? While I admit this is a ton of points to lay, I see a comfortable Buckeye win here more than I do a competitive effort from Penn State. For what it’s worth, Ohio State is 9-1-1 ATS as a home favorite of at least 20 points against conference opponents since 2021, 4-1-1 ATS over the last 3 years.

Penn State vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -20 (-115) available at Fanatics at the time of publishing. Playable to -21 (-115).

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Accurately predicting these mid-40s totals in Ohio State games is tough. On one hand, the Buckeyes are so stout defensively; only one team has surpassed 10 points against them this season. On the other hand, this offense can light up the scoreboard and surpass 43 points alone on any given Saturday. However, for this particular matchup, I lean to the under, as I expect it to be a struggle for Penn State to score. 

Penn State’s offense has dropped off a cliff in recent weeks – understandably so – and hasn’t been able to put itself into enough scoring opportunities for me to trust it against this OSU defense. For reference, the Nittany Lions have driven past the opposing 40-yard line just 18 times outside of garbage time in 4 games since Week 5, which ranks 113th nationally around teams like Kentucky, Syracuse, and Middle Tennessee. If you think about it, that averages out to be just about 1 scoring opportunity per quarter since Week 5 against a group of teams that includes UCLA, Northwestern and Iowa. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State has allowed just 11 opposing, non-garbage-time drives to pass its own 40-yard line in 4 games since Week 5 – good for a tie at 2nd nationally just behind Toledo. When opponents are fortunate enough to make it into scoring range against this defense, they have trouble even coming away with a field goal – as the Buckeyes have surrendered just 2.36 points per quality drive since the end of September. Predictably, opponents also have trouble scoring from the red zone against this defense; the ‘Bucks have surrendered just 2 touchdowns on 12 opposing red-zone trips. Given all this information, it wouldn’t surprise me to see yet another team fail to surpass 10 points against the vaunted Ohio State defense. This has the feel of a 31-6 type of game, so I lean to the under here.

Penn State vs Ohio State prediction: Under 43.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 43. 

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We head to the B1G for an early kickoff Saturday between the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Illinois Fighting Illini. This is a matchup between one team that has fallen apart of late versus a team that probably never had it together in the first place, and that is a tough spot for bettors. Illinois, who thought they had a shot at a playoff spot coming into the season, has taken 3 conference losses already—Indiana, Ohio State, and Washington. While there is no shame in losing to those teams, they were whipped soundly in each case. Rutgers, on the other hand, sits at 1-4 in the conference, got its first conference win last week at Purdue. Rutgers is not a good football team, but it is perfectly possible that they can stay within 12 points in this spot. I will take Rutgers with the points at +12.5.

The weather is not looking great for this 11am kickoff in Champaign. Temperatures are expected to be cool, and the wind is likely to be up in the 20-30 mph territory, with some rain chances developing. That is bad news for teams that like to throw, and that won’t make for great conditions for Luke Altmyer and his Illini receivers. This game could turn out to be ugly. Of course, both defenses are awful, and that has given us an expected point total north of 60, but it should be both teams that are moving effectively. While this Rutgers team got blasted by Oregon and Washington, they hung around with Iowa and Minnesota, both of whom are pretty solid teams. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rutgers is in this game late, and maybe even gives the Illini a scare. Give me the points in what I think will be an ugly game.

Rutgers vs Illinois Prediction: Rutgers +12.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We head to Houston for an early kickoff in what is suddenly a meaningful Big 12 game between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Houston Cougars. While West Virginia finds themselves at the bottom of the conference standings at 0-5 and desperate for a win, the Cougars are right in the thick of the hunt for a conference crown. They are a surprising 4-1 after upending Arizona State on the road last week. With a schedule that avoids both Utah and BYU, among others, and Texas Tech already in the rearview, they have a favorable path going forward, and this team really is pretty good. That said, I think they are getting too much respect in the betting market this week, and this looks like a classic win-no-cover spot to me. I will take West Virginia +13.5.

Houston is a team with a solid defense and an adequate offense behind A&M transfer Cooner Weigman. Weigman is a true dual threat guy who is probably more dangerous with his legs than his arm. West Virginia has been respectable against dual threat QBs, but the real key factor in this game is the Mountaineer offense. We know that Rich Rodriguez will eventually figure out a substantial offensive attack, but to this point in the season, he has more or less been holding open tryouts at quarterback. There has been way too much “panic and run” in this offense so far. But we saw some signs of life last week, as Scotty Fox Jr got a shot, and he stayed in the pocket, threw 41 times, and eclipsed 300 yards against TCU. I am not saying they have found the answer just yet, but I am suggesting that a little bit of offensive competence could definitely keep this game closer than the Cougs want it to be. Houston is usually not a team that will blow anyone out, and this could be a tricky spot to navigate.

West Virginia vs Houston Prediction: West Virginia +13.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The 16th-ranked Louisville Cardinals will try to keep pace with the top teams in the ACC with a win this Saturday when they travel to take on the Virginia Tech Hokies. Louisville has only lost one game this season. It was on October 4th when they fell in overtime against Virginia. The loss has now put the Cardinals behind Virginia and Georgia Tech, two teams that have not yet lost a conference game. The Cardinals need to continue winning if they want to compete for an ACC championship. Their last win was a 38-24 win over Boston College. Running back Isaac Brown had a big game, rushing for 205 yards and 1 touchdown. Virginia Tech currently has a losing record, but they are still 2-2 in the ACC. Their conference wins have come against North Carolina State, and last week against California. The Hokies needed double overtime, but they eventually walked away with the win 42-34. Virginia Tech dominated the rushing game against California with a 357 to 39 yard advantage.

Louisville has never beaten Virginia Tech at Lane Stadium, but they are certainly equipped to break that streak this Saturday. But with any streak-breaking game, I don’t think that it will come easy. Virginia Tech fired their head coach Brent Pry earlier this season after an 0-3 start. With offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery stepping in as the interim head coach, the Hokies have shown progression and won three of their last five games. Their defense has been their weakness against high-powered offenses, but they have shown improvement, especially on their home field. While Louisville has been great this season, I wouldn’t consider their offense high-powered or explosive. Quarterback Miller Moss has been efficient this season, throwing for 1793 yards and 10 touchdowns. He will be matched up against Virginia Tech’s quarterback, Kyron Drones. Drones is a dual threat quarterback who can extend plays with his legs. He has thrown for 1516 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. After wins against Miami and Boston College, Louisville is due for a challenge. Louisville will still likely win this game, but I don’t think it comes easy in Lane Stadium.

Virginia Tech +10.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Michigan State Spartans are currently winless in the Big 10 with a conference record of 0-5. The Spartans will try to break that streak this weekend when they travel to Minnesota and battle against the Golden Gophers. Michigan State is currently on a five game losing streak. They have gone through a brutal conference gauntlet. In order, their losses have come at USC, at Nebraska, at home versus UCLA, at Indiana, and at home against Michigan. The only game the Spartans were favored in this run was against UCLA. Quarterback Aidan Chiles went down with an injury in that game, and Michigan State lost 38-13. Minnesota lost their last game in Iowa 41-3. The Golden Gophers have a conference record of 3-2, but their two losses have come by nearly 40 points. Minnesota requires their running game to be productive if they want to compete. In the two conference losses, the Golden Gophers only ran for an average of 19 yards.

This game feels like it is now or never for the Spartans to pick up their first conference win. Remaining conference games on the schedule include Penn State, Iowa, and Maryland for the Spartans. While Michigan State has lost all five games by double digits, they have remained competitive and they did make those games interesting at times. Chiles has thrown for 1392 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. He has all the tools to compete with the Gophers defense. The problem with Michigan State has been their consistency. Quarterback and offensive line play has shown glimpses of positivity, but they have not been able to compete for a full 60 minutes. Against a team that works as slow as Minnesota, if Michigan State can attack the Gophers corners early, it may open up holes for their running backs later on.  The game plan will be clear for Michigan State. If they can limit the Gophers mediocre running game, they should be able to control time of possession and get their first conference win against a Gophers team that might not be as good as their record entails.

Michigan State +3 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Piggy-backing off the point spread play, the question here is simple — is there a realistic pathway for this total to go over? For that to happen, Notre Dame would either need to completely blank Boston College and still push near 50 points themselves, or this game would have to turn into an unlikely shootout. Neither scenario seems particularly plausible.

As mentioned in the point spread play, Notre Dame’s ambitions are greater than this contest. This looks more like a tune-up than a statement game. The Irish aren’t likely to push tempo or risk injury just to pad the scoreboard. On the flip side, Boston College will bring their best but how much of that turns into scoring when the Irish depth chart gets emptied? Sure, the Eagles may get a couple of junk-time scores but if they stay within range of covering, we are likely going Under while doing so.

And even if Notre Dame dominates the stat sheet, it’s hard to see this turning into a high-scoring affair. The Irish defense is strong enough to limit Boston College’s output, while their own offense figures to downshift once the outcome is no longer in doubt.

The numbers don’t add up to a shootout here. The spot situationally speaking sets up to where the Under cashes comfortably.

Notre Dame vs. Boston College prediction: Under 56.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 56.

Two questions come to mind here: does Notre Dame care enough to run this up, or is this simply a dress rehearsal for bigger things ahead? And if the Irish do jump out to a big lead early, how long before the second and third stringers start seeing the field — giving Boston College a chance or two to sneak in some late scores? For Notre Dame to cover nearly four touchdowns, they’d need to approach 50 points or play close to a flawless defensive game. Are either on the checklist? Probably not.

With a potentially undefeated and ranked Navy on deck, this doesn’t feel like a “statement” spot for the Irish. Motivation will be limited, and it’s unlikely Marcus Freeman wants to risk injury or show too much before the stretch run.

Boston College, on the other hand, is sitting at 1–7 and will treat this as their bowl game. Expect maximum effort and a willingness to empty the playbook. Notre Dame may dominate early, but sustaining that intensity for 60 minutes against a desperate opponent is another matter entirely.

The number is simply too big given the circumstances. The Irish win comfortably, but not emphatically. Grab the points and ride with the Eagles.

Notre Dame vs. Boston College prediction: Boston College +29 (-110) available at  time of publishing. Playable at number posted.

The Pittsburgh Panthers currently sit near the top of the ACC standings with a record of 6-2 and a conference record of 4-1. They will try to continue their four-game winning streak with a road victory against the Stanford Cardinal. Pittsburgh is coming off an offensive explosion in a game they defeated North Carolina State 53-34. Freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel threw for an impressive 423 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win. Heintschel replaced Eli Holstein earlier in the season, and the freshman has filled in well, accumulating over 1200 yards passing in four starts. Stanford has a losing record, but they are currently 2-3 in conference. They lost their last game 42-7 against Miami, but prior to that they beat Florida State 20-13 at Stanford Stadium. The Cardinal are currently 3-0 on their home field. Quarterback Ben Gulbranson is the Cardinal quarterback. He has thrown for 1585 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions this season.

The Panthers have a gauntlet of ACC games in front of them after their game against Stanford. On the schedule following this game is Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami. On paper this is a dangerous look ahead spot for Pittsburgh against a Stanford team that already beat Florida State, but I think Pittsburgh will be ready for the challenge and well-prepared. The offense for Pittsburgh has been on fire in the past four weeks. They have scored 165 points during the winning streak, and Heintschel is coming off being named ACC Rookie of the Week after becoming the first freshman in any Power Four school to throw for 400 yards and three touchdowns in a single game this season. Heintschel should be able to continue his run against a Stanford team that ranks 132nd in the FBS against the pass by allowing on average 292 yards passing per game. I don’t see the Stanford defense being the unit to slow down Pittsburgh’s offense.

Pittsburgh -14.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We’ve got a fascinating ACC matchup on our hands between a couple of very different teams, as the Virginia Cavaliers will take on the California Golden Bears from Berkeley. On paper, this has all the makings of a tough spot for a Virginia team that has not exactly been convincing in its recent victories, while Cal has the chance to get back on track following a loss in double overtime at Virginia Tech.

Few teams across the country this college football season have run as well as Virginia. While this has undoubtedly been a very impressive campaign for Tony Elliot’s team, the Cavaliers should have some significant regression coming before this regular season is over. Yes, Virginia is 7-1 on the year and currently sits near the top of the ACC standings, but the last few weeks have yielded some pretty misleading results for the Cavaliers. For starters, Virginia knocked off Florida State in overtime in a game that could’ve gone either way back on September 26. The Cavaliers then took down Louisville the next week in overtime, a game in which Virginia was +3 in the turnover battle. Fast forward to October 18 and the Cavaliers defeated Washington State at home by 2 points on a safety late in the 4th quarter (while also finishing +2 in turnovers). Most recently, Virginia was once again +2 in turnovers in a 1-point victory in overtime against North Carolina a week ago, despite the fact that the Cavaliers were outgained by nearly 100 yards and averaged just 3.8 yards per play against a poor Tar Heels defense.

It’s safe to say that Virginia can’t keep this up for much longer, and a trip out west is a great time to fade this team that’s been dancing through the raindrops for weeks. The matchup against California is one that could presents some challenges for the Virginia offense, as the Bears are a top 40 defense in success rate allowed, points per quality drive, early downs EPA and 3rd and 4th down success rate. On the other side of the ball, true freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has been up-and-down of late, but he is more than capable of seeing plenty of success against a Virginia defense that 95th in early downs EPA allowed and 109th in points per quality drive allowed. This has all the makings of a contest that should come down to the wire on the West Coast, and it’s only natural that my inclination is to back the underdog in this spot.

Virginia vs Cal prediction: Cal +4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +4

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This one is about finding value where the market isn’t looking. Purdue has no public appeal — a 2–6 team that finished dead last in the Big Ten a season ago — so the betting market naturally pushes against them. Michigan, on the other hand, is still very much alive in the playoff hunt if they can win out and take down Ohio State. That’s the storyline everyone knows, and it’s baked heavily into this number.

The Wolverines are college football royalty, and with that brand name comes a premium. You’re paying for the helmet decal, not the matchup. Purdue doesn’t need to be special here; they just need to be competent. Michigan likely wins comfortably, but covering three full touchdowns requires four solid quarters of focus — and that’s a tall ask against a scrappy opponent looking to play spoiler with nowhere to go but upwards.

There is no need to overanalyze stats or personnel in this one. The value sits quietly under the rug with the Boilermakers. Take the points, close your eyes, and don’t ask questions.

Purdue vs. Michigan prediction: Purdue +21 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at number posted.

We can correlate the Gamecocks with our first take on this matchup. If we’re expecting a high-scoring game, the academic move is to take the points — and that’s exactly what we’re doing here. In a contest where both teams are capable of trading scores, that +12.5 cushion suddenly looks very attractive.

Ole Miss can put up points, no question about it. But as we mentioned in the Over analysis, their defense hasn’t exactly been airtight. The Rebels have feasted on inconsistent or one-dimensional offenses — Oklahoma, Kentucky, LSU, Washington State, Tulane — but against teams with legitimate firepower like Georgia or Arkansas, they’ve surrendered 35 or more points and split those results. That’s not a formula for comfortably covering double digits.

South Carolina fits the mold of the kind of team that can stress this defense. When LaNorris Sellers gets going, the Gamecocks can generate chunk plays and sustain drives. Combine that with an Ole Miss defense that struggles to get off the field, and you have a recipe for a back-and-forth affair where every possession matters.

If this turns into the shootout we expect, the amount of points here is simply too generous. The Gamecocks stay within striking distance — and could make things very interesting late. They may even pull the upset. Take the points.

South Carolina vs. Ole Miss prediction: South Carolina +12.5 (-110) available at  time of publishing. Playable to +12.

We’re leading this one with the total, because that’s where the value lies. Everyone knows what Ole Miss can do offensively — they move fast, score in bunches, and can light up a scoreboard in a hurry. The real question is whether their defense can stop anyone. Before you answer “yes,” take a look at who they’ve actually contained.

Oklahoma? A team plagued by inconsistency. Kentucky? Not exactly an offensive juggernaut. LSU? Struggling to find rhythm all season and now without its head coach. Washington State and Tulane? Solid mid-tier offenses, but not the kind a ranked Rebels team should be sweating.

When Ole Miss has faced legitimate offensive threats — teams like Georgia or even Arkansas — the results tell the story. They’ve allowed 35 or more points in both, splitting those games 1–1. South Carolina fits that same mold when LaNorris Sellers gets rolling. The Gamecocks can move the ball, stretch the field, and they’ll find cracks in this Ole Miss defense just as others have.

With both offenses capable and neither defense built to dominate, this has all the makings of a track meet. Expect plenty of fireworks and little resistance. The over 54.5 looks very live — and 60 points looks elementary in this contest.

South Carolina vs. Ole Miss prediction: Over 54.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Over 55.

Can someone explain this line, please? A 4–4 NC State team isn’t even getting a full touchdown at home against an undefeated Georgia Tech squad that could easily be sitting inside the top five of the national polls. Yes, it’s a rivalry game, but on the surface, this number makes no sense. The Jackets have been rolling everyone in their path, and just two weeks ago, they thrived as a ranked underdog versus Duke, winning by nine in a game that was never in doubt. Surely, lightning can’t strike twice — or can it?

NC State is coming off a 53-point drubbing by Pitt, and the week before that, they were handled easily by Notre Dame, 36–7. Notre Dame incidentally is also ranked, so how are the Pack a threat here to an even better opponent? On paper, their profile hardly screams “live underdog.” Yet this line is begging you to take Georgia Tech, which should always raise an eyebrow. Either this is a massive oversight and the Ramblin’ Wreck are the steal of the week, or the oddsmakers are telling us something. We know that Vegas isn’t a charity shop, so we are inclined to lean to the latter.

In rivalry games, logic often goes out the window — records and rankings are irrelevant, and this feels like one of those spots. The Wolfpack have nothing to lose, and in front of a home crowd in Raleigh, they’ll empty the tank. Upset alert on high — take NC State outright.

Georgia Tech vs. NC State prediction: North Carolina State +180 (Money Line) available at  time of publishing. Playable at number posted.

It has been a rough season for the Kentucky Wildcats. Big Blue Nation is currently winless in the SEC at 0-5, and its 2 wins on the year were against MAC schools. After narrowly losing to Texas at home in overtime, the Wildcats played host to Tennessee last week and had their doors blown off. The Vols scored 56 in their 21-point victory, gained over 500 yards and committed zero turnovers. Meanwhile, Kentucky was at least solid offensively with 476 yards, but the 2 turnovers helped Tennessee build what proved to be an insurmountable lead.

Auburn will return home to host this flailing Kentucky team after finally snapping a 4-game losing streak. With the whole world against them, Auburn went into Arkansas and beat the Razorbacks 33-24 thanks to 4 Arkansas turnovers and a 23-3 second half scoring edge for the Tigers. It was Auburn RB Jeremiah Cobb that stole the show, rushing for 153 yards on 28 carries in the win.

This game will likely be heavily influenced by the run game of both teams. Kentucky and Auburn both reside in the top 60 in rush rate outside of garbage time since Week 5, and neither offense has been explosive in that time. In fact, both the Wildcats and the Tigers are 125th or worse in explosiveness per play since the end of September. With below-average passing attacks, it’s going to be a struggle to get into scoring range for both teams. Even when they get into scoring range, they’ve proven they can’t be trusted to find the end zone – as Kentucky is 93rd in points scored per quality drive since Week 5 while Auburn ranks 126th. Despite both teams playing in high-scoring games last week, I’m expecting this one to be a slog.

Kentucky vs Auburn prediction: Under 45.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 45.

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