College Football Picks

The Navy Midshipmen travel to Memphis looking to crash the party in the American Conference. There are 3 teams tied at 6-1 in at the top of the conference standings, with North Texas and Tulane in the same boat at the Midshipmen. Navy topped USF last time out, 41-38, to keep hope alive. The cover as 9.5-point underdogs snapped a 6-game non-cover streak. The Navy defense has been vulnerable, allowing 31 more points in 6 straight games, and when it plays a team with a halfway decent defense, or a team with a better offense, it has had trouble.

The Tigers are out of the mix for a title shot, as Memphis already has 3 conference losses — though it can play a role in determining who plays for the league title. Memphis has suffered back-to-back losses to Tulane and at East Carolina, and it is just 2-3 ATS in the past 5 outings. However, the Tigers are trouble for the Middies, as Memphis allows just 127.4 rushing yards per game (30th), while allowing just 22.0 PPG. Meanwhile, Memphis has racked up 32 or more points in 3 of the past 4 games.  The Tigers are going to be a handful for Navy.

Navy vs Memphis prediction: Memphis Tigers -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

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The Navy Midshipmen head to the banks of the Mississippi River to battle the Memphis Tigers in an American Conference game at the Simmons Bank Liberty Bowl. Navy is still fighting for a shot to get into the American Conference Championship Game, but it will need a little help being that the Midshipmen are in a 3-team logjam with North Texas and Tulane atop the league standings. A main reason for Navy’s success this season, as per usual, is its rushing offense. Navy is once again No. 1 in the country with 308.2 yards per game on the ground, but it can mix in the pass a little more than in the past, going for 140.0 yards per game. That has led to 32.9 PPG on offense, helping the Middies hang with most teams. The over is 5-1 in the past six games, and 8-2 in 10 outings this season.

The Tigers of Memphis have cashed the over in the past 4 games, while going for 27 or more points in each of the games and allowing 31 or more points in 4 of the past 5 outings. We’ve seen Memphis be an over machine in the past, and 2025 is no different. The Tigers have racked up 36.2 PPG (29th), while it has allowed 22.0 PPG. The problem with the over, and why it isn’t more of a slam-dunk play, is because Memphis is strong against the run. Navy will get rushing yards, and points, as that’s inevitable, but its ceiling may be the mid-20s. We need Memphis to hit its averages, and that shouldn’t be a problem, but we could get a bit of a slow start, so be mindful of that for live-betting opportunities.

Navy vs Memphis pick: Over 58 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 59.5.

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Last week Nebraska was one of the public ‘dogs, taking back nearly double-digits against a 4-6 Penn State team — and bettors lined up on the Cornhuskers thinking the price was auspicious. Penn State ended up blasting the Cornhuskers 37-10, and just like that the market has completely swung the other direction — now piling onto Iowa simply because the ‘Huskers let them down. It also helps that the Hawkeyes have won 9 of the last 10 meetings.

But this line — sitting under a touchdown — is the giveaway. The oddsmakers aren’t willing to hang a big number despite Iowa’s dominance in the rivalry along with the fact they were a CFP hopeful just weeks ago. That tells you Nebraska isn’t coming in flat. The ‘Huskers were embarrassed last week, and teams often show their true form after a humiliation — especially when returning home against a rival that has had their number. Iowa’s offensive limitations always leave the door open, and the number suggests danger for the Hawkeyes. Forget the points; Nebraska pulls off the upset.

Iowa vs Nebraska prediction: Nebraska ML (+180) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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The annual Egg Bowl is one of the best rivalries in college football and Saturday’s installment has the potential to be one of the more consequential games in this rivalry on Friday, as Ole Miss needs a win to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff, while the Bulldogs are looking to pick up a victory to make a bowl game after starting the season with little to no expectations. This is also a game where there are a ton of off-field distractions at hand, as the Rebels are expected to lose head coach Lane Kiffin at the end of the regular season based on recent reporting. Given the fact that this could be Kiffin’s last game as the head coach in Oxford and he’s likely headed to another team within the SEC, it would be fair to question if both he and his team are in the right frame of mind to hit the road and play in an extremely important game to clinch a College Football Playoff berth against an opponent that is better than their record.

I successfully backed Mississippi State against multiple SEC foes this season, and I’m going back to the well with the Bulldogs at home against an Ole Miss team that has to be in a strange spot mentally at the moment. Ole Miss just struggled to put away Florida at home in its last contest and Mississippi State is certainly a better team than the reeling Gators. Furthermore, the Bulldogs will be at home, where they’ve excelled at this season, already beating Arizona State as an underdog of a touchdown and nearly upsetting both Texas and Tennessee as a home ‘dog of around a touchdown. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has undoubtedly been a pleasant surprise this season, but playing on the road in this type of rivalry game will still be a new experience for a player in Chambliss that is due for some turnover regression sooner rather than later. 

As for the other side of the ball, the Mississippi State offense should be able to keep the Bulldogs in this game, especially against an Ole Miss defense that has struggled in a number of conference games this season. The Mississippi State offense is a veteran group that sits in the top 20 nationally in rushing success rate and points per quality drive. We can expect Jeff Lebby’s group to be the one to bring the energy and punch Ole Miss in the mouth early on, which should lead to a fun back-and-forth game. We just saw Ole Miss lose a similar “win and in” type of game a season ago at Florida as a significant favorite, and it wouldn’t surprise me if history repeated itself on Friday.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State +7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +7

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The final week of the regular season gets going for the Big 12 on Friday afternoon as the Utah Utes take on the Kansas Jayhawks. Both teams have lots at stake. For Kansas, a win would mean bowl eligibility. For the Utes, there is still an outside chance at both the Big 12 Championship game (if BYU somehow loses to UCF) or the College Football Playoff (if lots of things go wrong for multiple other teams). The fact that Utah plays first but does not control its own destiny means that it needs to win — and win impressively. This is a lot of points on the road, but for this Utah vs Kansas prediction I am taking Utah -12.5 on Friday.

It is going to be a cold afternoon in Lawrence when this game kicks off, and that is likely to favor the running games and the defenses. Both run defenses are poor, ranking outside the top 100 in yards allowed per game, but the eye test says the Utah defense is much more likely to stiffen up in this spot. The Utah offense should have no trouble shredding the Kansas defense, as pretty much every opponent has all season. Aside from a win against Oklahoma State sandwiched in the middle, the Jayhawks have lost 4 of their last 5 games and they have been pushed around badly in most of those. Utah should be able to bully Kansas in the trenches, and I suspect if we get late in the game and the Jayhawks realize they can’t win but Utah is still trying to hang points to arbitrarily enhance their postseason chances, we might see Utah pull away late.

Utah vs Kansas prediction: Utah -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Colorado State Rams will host the Air Force Falcons this Friday in a Mountain West Conference game. Colorado State has a record of 2-9 and a conference record of 1-6. The Rams have lost their last 5 games, with their last loss coming against Boise State 49-21, but the Rams made a change at starting quarterback a couple of weeks ago. Freshman quarterback Darius Curry has stepped in and has produced a high number of passing yards, though he has struggled to limit turnovers. In his last 2 starts, Curry has thrown for a combined 541 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. The Rams defense is led by linebacker Owen Long, who leads all of college football with 134 tackles.

Air Force has a record of 3-8 with a conference record of 2-5. The Falcons have lost their last 2 games, including a 20-3 defeat against New Mexico last week. Air Force was missing their starting quarterback, Liam Szarka, who exited 2 weeks ago with an injury. The Air Force offense struggled last week as a result, only producing 161 yards of total offense. Szarka will be out again this week against Colorado State.

Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun will need to find adjustments offensively without Szarka in his lineup, as the Falcons relied heavily on his play this season. Szarka led Air Force in passing with 1,294 yards and rushing with 922 yards. Owen Allen is the Fly Boys’ next best rusher this season at 643 yards and 3 touchdowns on 107 attempts. Allen was held to 5 rushes for 8 yards in the game against New Mexico without Szarka present. Colorado State’s freshman quarterback, Curry, has shown he is competent offensively, and he should have a good chance to continue to produce against an Air Force defense that is ranked 124th in the FBS against the pass at 259 yards allowed per game. If Curry and the Rams can limit turnovers, Air Force may not have enough offense to keep pace. I like the Rams at home this week to pick up a win over Air Force.

Air Force vs Colorado State prediction: Colorado State Rams +120 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New Mexico Lobos are riding a 5-game win streak sitting in 2nd place in the Mountain West standings, one spot behind the San Diego State Aztecs. The motivation factor is certainly there for both squads entering this one, but the clash of styles calls for an interesting matchup. San Diego State likes slow-paced, low-scoring dog fights leaning on the defense while New Mexico has had success with an efficient passing game. The Lobos rank top-40 in passing efficiency, EPA/dropback and net points per drive on offense.

While the Aztecs’ defense has been superb this season, the offense doesn’t have the firepower to match the Lobos big-play potential. The San Diego State offense ranks 91st in quality drive rate and 109th in points per quality drive with a turnover-prone quarterback under center. With home field advantage, I expect the Lobos to be fired up for the matchup that could land them in the Mountain West Championship game; I’ll take New Mexico to win outright.

San Diego State vs New Mexico prediction: New Mexico Lobos ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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There will still be a lot to sort out in the AAC when the North Texas Mean Green host the Temple Owls on Friday. Three teams have only a single loss in this conference—Tulane, Navy, and North Texas—and Navy plays on Thanksgiving Day. The tiebreakers are messy here if all 3 remained tied, but winning is the key. Temple, of course, is still in the way, trying to get its 6^th win and find its way to a bowl. North Texas is not losing this game; the question is whether it can win by 20. I think they can, and I think you have to play it that way if you are betting this game at all. Give me the Mean Green -19.5.

Temple is not a good football team, first and foremost. The Owls have lost 3 in a row down the stretch, including getting smoked by Tulane and East Carolina, teams at the top of the conference. It is likely that North Texas will do the same, especially since North Texas is the best offensive team of the bunch. The Mean Green have hung 50+ in 4 of their last 5 games. Temple is surprisingly good against the pass, but I don’t think that matters much against a team as prolific as UNT. The Mean Green have a lot at stake, and I look for them to put this game away early. Give me North Texas to cover.

Temple vs North Texas Prediction: North Texas Mean Green -19.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Utah State Aggies will host the Boise State Broncos Friday night in a Mountain West Conference matchup. Utah State has an overall record of 6-5 this season with a conference record of 4-3. The Aggies have won 3 of their last 5 games with their last win coming at Fresno State 28-17. Quarterback Bryson Barnes led the Aggies with 150 yards passing and 113 yards rushing in the victory. The former Utah quarterback has led Utah State this season with 2,502 yards passing, 18 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

Boise State has an overall record of 7-4 this season with a conference record of 5-2. The Broncos have lost 2 of their last 3 games, but they come into this contest off a 49-21 win over Colorado State. After losing back-to-back games in which their offense only produced 7 points in each game, an offensive outburst of 533 total yards was just what the Broncos needed. Their defense helped set up their offense in this game, forcing 3 interceptions and 1 fumble. The Broncos were able to control the football for 36 minutes against the 2-win Colorado State Rams. 

The Broncos conference championship hopes are out of their control, but they still have hope if they can win this game. They will have a tough road test against a tough Utah State team that is led by a great passer in Bryson Barnes. A reason Utah State has not seen more success this season with Barnes under center is they have a tough time keeping Barnes upright. The Aggies have allowed 37 sacks this season, at an average of 3.4 allowed per game. The good news for Utah State is that the Broncos defense doesn’t get after the quarterback as well as other teams do. Boise State has only 19 sacks total this season, ranking in the bottom half of the FBS. If Barnes is given time, he could be a real challenge against Boise State’s 11th-ranked pass defense.

Boise State vs Utah State: Utah State Aggies +3 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Old Oaken Bucket rivalry creates unique dynamics every season, but this year the contrast between these programs makes the matchup especially intriguing from a betting standpoint. Indiana comes in at 11–0, staring at a potential 12–0 regular season and preparing for a monumental Big Ten Championship showdown — possibly against the defending national champions and current No. 1 team in the country. That is where every ounce of Indiana’s emotional and strategic attention is directed. Beating Purdue is expected; beating Ohio State is the real task. Because of that, this week becomes a textbook flat spot.

Indiana has absolutely no incentive to run up the score. The Hoosiers are already playoff-bound and with the biggest game in program history a week away, Coach Cig will be cautious. Protecting starters, limiting the injury risk, shortening the game, and avoiding unnecessary physicality are all priorities. If Indiana gets up early, the likelihood of Cignetti calling off the dogs is extremely high. Purdue, on the other hand, is 2–9 with no Big Ten wins — but that makes this their bowl game. Teams with nothing left to play for except pride often bring their sharpest effort in rivalry week. The Boilermakers don’t need to win outright to cash, they simply need to compete with intensity and take advantage of Indiana’s predictable conservatism. The spread assumes Indiana plays four full quarters at peak motivation, something that is nearly impossible to expect given the timing, the stakes, and the injury risks. Purdue, meanwhile, walks in loose, motivated, and with every reason to empty the playbook. In spots like this, the big dog is exactly the right side.

Indiana vs Purdue prediction: Purdue Boilermakers +28 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The Lonestar Showdown returned after a 12-year hiatus last year when the #3 Texas Longhorns went into College Station and beat the #20 Texas A&M Aggies 17-7. One year later, the roles are essentially reversed, as the Aggies are #3 in the CFP Rankings coming into this game while the ‘Horns are #17. As it stands, Texas A&M is 1 of 3 undefeated teams remaining in the FBS. 

Texas has been touted as one of the strongest defenses in the country, but that hasn’t been the case in recent weeks. The Longhorns have surrendered at least 31 points in 4 straight games against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Arkansas, and now they square off against one of the best and most electrifying offenses in the country in Texas A&M. The Aggies come into this game as a top-15 team in scoring, total offense, and yards per play, and they have top-35 red-zone offense to boot. 

On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M has one of the most aggressive defenses in the country. The Aggies are 2nd nationally in both sacks and tackles for loss, which is going to put a ton of pressure on Arch Manning and a mediocre offensive line by SEC standards – one that is 78th in sacks surrendered and 92nd in tackles for loss allowed. Furthermore, the Longhorns have struggled offensively on standard downs and with their run-game efficiency, and that’s not going to put them in very favorable positions against what has been the best third-down defense in the country this year. 

Texas’ offense has been below-average at best in scoring situations, sitting 84 in points scored per quality drive over the last 5 weeks and outside the top 70 in red zone scoring over the course of the whole season. When you combine their red-zone woes with what has become an unreliable defense, it’s hard to trust the Longhorns against what’s been a wagon of a Texas A&M team – maybe aside from a single, fluky half against South Carolina. Give me Texas A&M, but on the money line given its affordable price. 

Texas A&M vs Texas prediction: Texas A&M Aggies ML (-122) on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -135 or up to -2.5 on the spread.

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Texas A&M’s frequent scoring outbursts have led to a flurry of overs this season. In fact, 8 of Texas A&M’s 11 games have gone over the total, as the Aggies have failed to surpass 30 points all but once this season. They should be able to do it yet again this week against what was once a feared Texas defense, but has now seemingly regressed in recent weeks. Not only have the Longhorns dropped outside the top 20 in scoring and outside the top 35 in total defense, but they are also outside the top 100 in red-zone touchdown rate this season and second-to-last (135th) in opposing scoring on quality drives over the last 5 weeks. 

At first glance, I leaned to the over in this matchup, and while I don’t trust Texas’ defense to limit Texas A&M’s scoring in this game, I also struggle to find confidence in Texas’ offense. The Longhorns’ best scoring efforts have come against exploitable defenses like Arkansas, Mississippi State (which required a miracle comeback fueled by 31 points scored in the 4th quarter and overtime), and Sam Houston State. However, against some of their best defensive opponents in Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State, the Longhorns scored more than 10 points just once – a 23-point performance against Oklahoma in which 1 of their 2 touchdowns scored was on a punt return. That means the Longhorns scored just 1 offensive touchdown against each of those opponents, which also means it’s hard to trust them to do their part to push this game over the total. Because of that, I will lean to the under — though you might want to hold your nose given the explosiveness of Texas A&M’s offense. 

Texas A&M vs Texas prediction: Under 51.5 at the time of publishing. Playable to 51.

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It is rivalry week in college football, and that means it is state championship week in Arizona. The Arizona Wildcats make the trip upstate to face the Arizona State Sun Devils. Both teams sit at 8-3 overall, and the Sun Devils hope to inject some chaos into the conference’s final week. They can still make the conference championship game with a win and a lot of help, but the visiting Wildcats actually come in as slight favorites. ASU is 5-1 at home, including a win over Texas Tech, so it is hard to bet against Dillingham and company in Tempe. However, I do think the Wildcats have found something in the second half, so I am going to side with Arizona at only -2.

Much of the story of this game will be the defenses. The basic idea here is that you cannot run the ball against Arizona State, and you cannot throw the ball against Arizona. That makes both teams heavily one-dimensional. Arizona and its first-year OC finally has found a rhythm and discovered some things as the season has gone along, and Fifita has really lit up the scoreboard of late. The Wildcats want to be an up-tempo, pass-heavy system, and they are finally getting there. It is also worth remembering that ASU is without its starting QB, and its star WR has been fighting through a hamstring injury, and that makes it tough against an Arizona team that is so good against the pass. This is a rivalry game and everything can absolutely go haywire, but I see more paths to success for the Wildcats. I’ll cast my lot there.

Arizona vs Arizona State Prediction: Arizona Wildcats -2 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Neither Clemson nor South Carolina has much to play for entering the final week of regular season play. However – for what it’s worth at this point – Clemson has turned a nightmare season around in recent weeks with 3 straight wins including victories over Florida State and a top-20 Louisville team on the road. Despite putting up 51 points against a measly Coastal Carolina squad last time out, the underlying numbers for the Gamecocks’ offense are rough. South Carolina ranks 121st in offensive success rate and 106th in net points per drive offensively.

Quality drives are few and far between for South Carolina in 2025, largely due to an immense struggle to establish a consistent run game. This bodes poorly in this matchup as Clemson has an above-average defensive unit against the run, ranking top-50 in practically every major stat category relating to run defense. After the collapse against the Aggies two weeks back, it’s hard to have any faith in the 4-7 Gamecocks. I’ll take Clemson to close the season strong with a cover on the road.

Clemson vs South Carolina prediction: Clemson Tigers +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Head coach Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes will travel to the University of Kansas State this Saturday to take on the Wildcats. Colorado has a record of 3-8 this season, and they currently sit near the bottom of the Big 12 with a Conference record of 1-7. They have lost their last four games, with their last loss coming against Arizona State 42-17. Colorado actually had a 14-13 lead in this game, but some poor tackling on defense allowed Arizona State to break this game open in the 4th quarter with 21 unanswered points. Their opponent this week, Kansas State, has a record of 5-6 this season, and a conference record of 4-4. The Wildcats have won three of their last five games, with their last game resulting in a loss to Utah 51-47. It was a career game for running back Joe Jackson. He ran for 293 yards and 3 touchdowns against a solid Utah defense. Despite the effort, Kansas State could not hold on to a 47-35 lead with 7 minutes left in this game. Kansas State will now need a win over Colorado to be bowl game eligible.

Coach Sanders made the decision before Saturday’s game that his starting quarterback Julian Lewis will not start this Saturday’s game so that he can preserve his redshirt freshman season. That means the Buffaloes will go back to Kaidon Salter as their quarterback to end the season. Salter was the team’s starter at the beginning of the season. He threw for 1242 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 8 games played this season. Due to his play that regressed as the season continued, the team decided to bench Salter. But now the senior quarterback has the opportunity to end his career the right way against a Kansas State defense that allows 392 yards and allows 27.8 points per game this season. One of Salter’s best attributes this season is his rushing ability. Despite not playing the past two games, Salter still has the second most rushing yards this season for Colorado with 293 yards. Kansas State’s offense has been playing great football down the stretch, and I expect their offense to show up in a must-win game against a Colorado defense that has allowed big plays all season, and I do think we get enough out of Salter in his last collegiate game to cover this total.

Over 49.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

As the Big 12 season comes to a close, we get a battle of two Texas schools as the Houston Cougars travel to Waco to face the Baylor Bears. The Cougars are 8-3 and sit in the upper half of the Big 12 standings, while the Bears need this win to get bowl eligible. Baylor is favored to win this game at home, but I am not sure we can trust Baylor to win, especially not with the putrid defense they trot out every week. I think the much smarter play in this game is the game total over 59.5. There is a threat of weather in this one, but even still, if a game involves Baylor, we might as well bet on points.

Baylor has one of the most potent passing attacks in the country, but it is paired with one of the most generous defenses in the country. Baylor can and will score, but they will also watch the other team score too. Both things happen quickly and frequently. The Houston defense is good, and they are a top 50 unit against the pass, but that probably won’t slow down Baylor much. Houston won a 17-14 game last week over pass-heavy TCU, and that might lead us to think they can do something similar to Baylor, but they also picked off TCU 3 times and caused a fumble. It is hard to bank on that many turnovers to suppress scoring. Look for Baylor to play desperate, which means they probably won’t punt all game, and will go for it in the deep red zone too. Both teams should be in the 30s in this one.

Houston vs Baylor Prediction: Over 59.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Iowa State will look to finish off a solid season with a win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys as the season comes to an end. Iowa State has a record of 7-4 and a conference record of 4-4 this season. They have seemingly shaken off their midseason slump with two straight wins in their last two games. They defeated Kansas 38-14 in their last game out behind 241 yards passing and 3 touchdowns from quarterback Rocco Becht. The Cyclones jumped out to an early 17-0 start in this game and easily covered a spread of 3.5-points. Oklahoma State may just be looking for their season to come to an end this weekend. The Cowboys have a record of 1-10 and are winless in conference games. After winning their opening game of the season, Oklahoma State has lost 10 straight games and fired their longtime head coach. All eyes are on the future in Stillwater, Oklahoma, but a win on Saturday could set them off in the right direction.

The question for this game is can Iowa State finish their season off strong? Oklahoma State is winless in the conference, but they did give a scare last week against UCF. The Cowboys led that game 14-0 at halftime on the road before going scoreless in the 2nd half. There were some concerns revolving around Iowa State’s offense and turnovers from Rocco Becht earlier this month. Becht had gone three games in the Big 12 where he threw 6 interceptions. I felt Becht firmly reasserted himself last week against Kansas with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. He will get another chance to quiet the narrative against him going into bowl season against an Oklahoma State defense that only has 6 interceptions all season. Oklahoma State’s defense also ranks 118th in yards allowed per game, 126th in passing yards allowed per game, and 127th in points allowed per game. If Iowa State can execute on offense, all signs point towards an easy end of season win for the Cyclones.

Iowa State -14 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the more underrated rivalries in college football comes in Kentucky, where the Louisville Cardinals are set to host the Kentucky Wildcats in a game that features a ton of uncertainty due to injuries. On one side, the Kentucky injury report figures to be pretty lengthy this week, as the Wildcats have dealt with plenty of attrition on both sides of the ball, particularly in the defensive backfield. And while the injuries have certainly added up on defense — and it showed in last week’s blowout loss to Vanderbilt — the Wildcats are also dealing with injuries within their wide receiving corps and the tight end room heading into this game. That doesn’t bode well against a Louisville defense that is one of the best units in the ACC and has largely held up its end of the bargain in recent weeks, even as the Cardinals offense has struggled mightily during this demoralizing 3-game losing streak.

On the topic of the Louisville offense, Jeff Brohm’s unit has gone downhill fast in recent weeks. It all started with the injury to running back Issac Brown, who is the engine behind the success of the Louisville offense this season. Not only did the Cardinals lose at home to California as a massive favorite, they followed that up with a brutal 1-point home loss Clemson in a game that Louisville had every chance to win. Last week, the Cardinals hit rock bottom by starting a backup quarterback in place for the injured Miller Moss and finishing with just 6 points in a drubbing at the hands of a red-hot SMU team on the road. While this week would ordinarily be a good spot to back Louisville at home following that embarrassing loss, its hard to gauge just where Brohm and his team are at mentally, especially since the Cardinals will likely be without Moss, along with their top 3 running backs and star wideout Chris Bell. Even against a Kentucky defense that will be without a number of key contributors this week, it’s hard to see Louisville rack up many points in this one. With that in mind, the under is my preferred play on this contest.

Kentucky vs Louisville prediction: Under 47.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 47.

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The Texas Tech Red Raiders will travel to West Virginia this Saturday as heavy favorites to take on the Mountaineers. The Red Raiders are one of college football’s most complete teams with a  record of 10-1 and a conference record of 7-1. They have won their last four games with their last win coming against UCF 48-9. Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez was the star in this game, totaling 9 tackles and scoring his first offensive touchdown of his career on a hand off up the middle. It just goes to show how much talent is on both sides of the ball on this Red Raider team. In their last four conference games, Texas Tech has outscored their Big 12 opponents 162 to 36. West Virginia has a record of 4-7 and a conference record of 2-6. The Mountaineers have looked better near the end of the season, winning two of their last three games. The main change that has the Mountaineers winning games is the change to freshman quarterback Scotty Fox Jr. In his four starts, Fox has thrown for 1013 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The freshman helped win or stay competitive in each start against TCU, Houston, Colorado, and Arizona State. Fox has not yet lost by more than a touchdown as a starter.

Fox has been great, but Saturday’s game will easily be his toughest test yet. The Red Raiders’ defense ranks 7th in yards allowed per game, 1st in rushing yards allowed per game, and 4th in points allowed per game. The only category they don’t rank in the top ten in is passing yards allowed, in which they rank 35th. This will be a big game for both teams. Texas Tech needs this win to clinch their spot in the Big 12 Championship. If the Red Raiders come into this game not focused and slip up, things could go sideways in the standings. This is a big game for West Virginia in terms of recruitment. They could set themselves up for a great offseason with either a competitive game or win over one of the best teams in the nations. They can show recruits all the promise this team has with their young quarterback. Some cause for concern for Texas Tech is quarterback Behren Morton will be playing through a leg injury. We could see Texas Tech lean more on their run game, or even bring in Mitch Griffis if they want to preserve Morton. West Virginia’s head coach Rich Rodriguez knows that upsets can happen in Morgantown. As the opposing head coach in 2007, his Pittsburgh Panthers beat West Virginia as four touchdown underdogs to end the season. Now in his last game of his first season as the coach of West Virginia, he has the chance to bring his players in and match up against one of the nation’s best.

West Virginia +23.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

As we head into the final day of the season, the Central Florida Knights travel to Provo to face the BYU Cougars. This is an early start in the mountains, and there is much at stake. For UCF, they need this game to get bowl eligible. For BYU, a win means a trip to the Big 12 Championship game, and maybe a seat at the table in the playoffs. These cross-country games rarely go well for the visitors, and even less so when there is a gigantic talent gap. Weird things happen, but there is absolutely no reason that BYU shouldn’t roll here; I will take them -17.5.

BYU is a strong, physical team that bullies their opponents on both sides of the ball. The only team they haven’t been able to bully is Texas Tech, and UCF is not Texas Tech. BYU ranks in the top 40 defensively against both the pass and the run, and UCF is not a particularly potent offense. Only twice in conference play have they scored more than 20 points; one of those was against a bad West Virginia team, and the other was a strange Friday night game at home against Houston where they nabbed 3 interceptions to cue the scoring. I do not see the Knights scoring much against BYU, and the Cougars seem to be in a good rhythm offensively. There is too much at stake here for the Cougars to horse around; the books want us to take the under on this spread, but I think BYU wins going away. Take the Cougars.

UCF vs BYU Prediction: BYU -17.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

A massive Conference USA showdown will take place between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Jacksonville State Gamecocks on Saturday night, as both teams are tied atop the conference standings at 6-1 heading into the final week of the regular season. The winner of this game is guaranteed a spot in the CUSA title game, but the situation varies depending on who loses because Kennesaw State is also 6-1 in conference play. 

The Owls are in if they win, but if Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State both lose and end up tied at 6-2 in conference play, the Gamecocks own the tiebreaker and would see WKU in an immediate rematch against the Hilltoppers. If Western Kentucky loses, the Hilltoppers are out no matter what. In short, this is a must win for the ‘Toppers if they want any shot of playing for the CUSA title. 

Jacksonville State has been perfect at home against FBS competition, winning and covering every game as an underdog. Yet, oddsmakers list them as underdog again this week – though I guess I understand why. Western Kentucky has been an ATS ATM this year, covering 9 of 11 spreads – including last week’s no-doubt cover as a 24.5-point underdog at LSU. However, I feel they are being awarded just a little too much for what they did against an uninterested team while Jacksonville State was battling with a conference contender in Florida International. I also believe the Gamecocks’ home win over Kennesaw State is being slightly undervalued, as Jacksonville State forced the then-undefeated (in conference play) Owls into 4 turnovers. 

This matchup is about as even as it gets, but I’m not convinced WKU should be laying a field goal in this spot. As such, I’ll lean to taking the points with Jacksonville State.

Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State prediction: Jacksonville State Gamecocks +3 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2. 

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While there are plenty of games that should captivate college football fans across the nation on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games that still has some value comes in the AAC, where the Army Black Knights will visit the UTSA Roadrunners in a game that features a pair of teams trending in different directions at the moment. Last week, I was all over UTSA in what was one of the best spots of the Week 13 slate, and I’m going back to the well with the Roadrunners to win at home once again. 

On one side, Army is in the midst of a poor run of form against the spread, as the Black Knights have failed to cover in back-to-back games and are just 4-6 against the number for the season. Furthermore, Jeff Monken’s team is coming off a brutal loss to Tulsa at home, in which Army blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost on a field goal in the final seconds. Now, they’ll have to embark on a brutal road trip to take on a UTSA team that has yet to lose a game at home since joining the American Conference. Last year’s Army team was one of the best in recent program history, and even that Black Knights team had trouble putting UTSA away in West Point. This time around, I expect the Roadrunners to exact a bit of revenge in what should be another raucous atmosphere at the Alamodome.  

UTSA has been rounding into form in recent weeks, and that certainly carried over into a beatdown of what was a red-hot East Carolina team a week ago. Historically, Jeff Traylor has been an excellent head coach against the spread in November and his team has clearly turned a corner offensively, with Owen McCown and company putting up an average of nearly 45 points per game over their last 3 games at the Alamodome. Where UTSA has gotten into trouble has been against excellent offenses on the road, but that’s not the situation that they’ll see in this one. In fact, while the Roadrunners pass defense is still an issue, they won’t face much of a passing attack from an Army team that is very one dimensional with its heavy rush rate this season. With that in mind, the UTSA rush defense (21st in quality drive rate allowed) should keep the Black Knights behind the chains throughout this contest. Ultimately, given the fact that the Roadrunners are trending up while Army has struggled away from home this season, there’s some inherent value on the home favorite at the current number on Saturday.

Army vs UTSA prediction: UTSA -6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to UTSA -7 (-115).

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The Penn State Nittany Lions head to New Jersey to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Saturday afternoon. Both teams sit at 5-6, so the winner will be bowl eligible and the loser will be turning in uniforms. While this is still quite a shock to Penn St to be in this position, there seems to be some energy to finish strong, and I wouldn’t want to play them in some low-level bowl where they will be favored by 30. Penn State has been on quite a tear lately—they nearly beat Indiana at home (if not for the best toe tap you will ever see), then smoked Michigan State and Nebraska. I think it is likely they will beat Rutgers, and maybe badly, but the -13.5 spread on the road seems suspicious. I feel better about the game total under 55.5.

Rutgers has a good offense, and they are usually really strong in the air. I do not see that being successful against Penn State, who is still an elite defense. On the other side, the Rutgers defense is just gross, and they are especially bad against the run. The Nittany Lions should absolutely run Rutgers into the ground. But to keep this number under, we don’t need much; a few Rutgers punts, some long grinding drives on the ground, maybe a turnover or two, and we can stay under here. And if Penn State does get up by a couple touchdowns as the oddsmakers expect, there is no reason for them to do anything other than grind the clock. Give me the under.

Penn State vs Rutgers Prediction: Under 55.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The in-state rivalry between Vanderbilt and Tennessee doesn’t have an official name, but it’s been around since the late 1800s. The Volunteers have won the last 4 meetings, scoring at least 36 points in each game, and while Vanderbilt tried to be competitive in some of those recent meetings, the Commodores feel much more well-equipped to handle Tennessee this time around.

The ‘Dores are top-10 in scoring, total offense, yards per play, and red-zone touchdown rate on the season as a whole, and they haven’t let off the gas of late. Since Week 9, Vandy is 6th in PPA per play, including top-20 efficiency on both standard and passing downs, and top-20 points per quality drive. Moreover, the Commodores continue to be one of the best third-offenses in the country thanks to being in more manageable situations via their efficiency on first and second downs – which is a weakness of this Tennessee defense. The Vols are outside the top 80 in third-down conversion rate allowed, and they can be had in the red zone – as they rank third-to-last (134th) in opposing red-zone touchdown rate. 

I never want to try to pretend like a rivalry game doesn’t matter for one team, but I would argue this game means way more for Vanderbilt than it does Tennessee. The Vols in CFP purgatory. Meaning, they are bowl eligible, but not good enough to make the 12-team playoff with 3 losses. Meanwhile, the Commodores are 9-2, and a win over Tennessee mixed in with some help above them could lead to a Vanderbilt playoff berth – just like everyone envisioned at the beginning of the year. 

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores +3 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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Unlike a lot of rivalry matchups this week, there won’t be wintry conditions in Knoxville for the game between Vanderbilt and Tennessee on Saturday. While it’s going to be a little chilly, especially for those southerners, there is not projected to be any precipitation or much wind – which makes an over on this high of a point total more attainable.

While there is a style dichotomy between these teams – Vanderbilt is more methodical while Tennessee is more uptempo – both of these teams can get down the field in a hurry. When the Commodores and the Volunteers get into scoring range, usually the drives end in points – and most of the time they end in touchdowns. That’s an over bettor’s dream. Also favorable for an over is the fact that Vanderbilt has a top-20 pass rate, which means there should be plenty of incompletions that stop the clock throughout this contest. 

Tennessee has repeatedly surrendered explosive plays this year, and that’s not going to change here against Diego Pavia and the Commodores. Given that Vanderbilt’s pass rush doesn’t get home a ton, the Vols should plenty of explosive passes too – as Joey Aguilar tends to thrive when he’s not met with an abundance of pressure. This has all the makings of a high-scoring affair, so I’m going to lean to the over. 

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction: Over 65.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The Wisconsin Badgers and Minnesota Golden Gophers are set to battle for one of college football’s most iconic trophies: Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 4 straight games, while Minnesota has been one of the least profitable teams in 2025 with a 3-7-1 mark ATS. With a total set under 40, don’t expect fireworks in this matchup. Neither offense has posted quality numbers throughout the 2025 campaign, but the Badgers’ defense provides a tough challenge for the Gophers.

Wisconsin ranks top-40 in both EPA/rush and EPA/dropback defensively and just held a quality Illinois squad to 10 points of offense last time out. Minnesota has an incredibly slow-paced offense – ranking 115th in plays per second – and has shown no signs of explosiveness, ranking 129th in FBS with only 32 plays going 20+ yards this season. While neither team has much to play for aside from bragging rights, I’ve got the Wisconsin defense carrying the Badgers to a rivalry win.

Wisconsin vs Minnesota prediction: Wisconsin Badgers ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The striking part of this matchup is the line itself. Florida is 3–8, fresh off a primetime blowout loss to Tennessee, and by all logic should not be laying points to anyone — yet they are a two-point favorite over a Florida State team fighting for bowl eligibility at 5–6. That alone tells you where the oddsmakers are leaning.

This is Florida’s final game, the end of a forgettable season before a coaching reset. But rivalry games create their own reality, and this is the last chance for the Gators to take something meaningful into the offseason. More importantly, a win here would eliminate Florida State from bowl contention, a program that was ranked inside the top 10 earlier this year. That kind of spoiler motivation matters. Florida State has its own revenge narrative after last year’s loss, and on paper the Seminoles look like an attractive underdog. But if the team fighting for its postseason life were truly in the stronger position, they wouldn’t be catching points from a 3-8 opponent. The Gators have nothing left to lose, complete freedom to empty the playbook, and home-field intensity behind them. Florida State, despite the bowl motivation, has struggled to handle pressure in key moments all season. The market is signaling clearly: Florida is the right side.

Florida State vs Florida prediction: Florida Gators -2 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The Iron Bowl is one of the most chaotic, logic-defying rivalries in college football, and Auburn finds itself in the exact type of spoiler role where strange things tend to happen. Jordan-Hare Stadium has been a house of horrors for Alabama for decades, and the Tigers enter this matchup with absolutely nothing to lose. At 5–6, Auburn either wins and reaches a low-tier December bowl—which doesn’t mean much to this program—or misses the postseason entirely. But none of that matters compared to the chance to wreck Alabama’s entire season.

And the stakes for the Tide couldn’t be higher. A third loss would eliminate them from the playoff. It would also end their SEC Championship hopes, since it would give them a second conference loss and lock in both Georgia and Texas A&M. Alabama needs this game for survival; Auburn needs it for pride. That dynamic often flips the script in this rivalry. This is Auburn’s championship game, their last swing, and the final emotional surge after firing Hugh Freeze. When a rivalry consistently subverts logic and the underdog is live, you take the shot. The number says Auburn is dangerous. War Eagle

Alabama vs Auburn prediction: Auburn Tigers ML (+170) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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If Auburn is going to have any shot at winning the Iron Bowl, the path is narrow and very clear: they cannot get dragged into a track meet. The Tigers have struggled offensively all season, and every competitive performance they’ve put together has come in low-scoring, grind-it-out games. The blueprint is already on film. In their 16–10 loss to Texas A&M, they kept the pyrotechnics in check. Oklahoma beat them by only seven while scoring just 24. Georgia needed four quarters to reach 20 points. Even Missouri—a game that went to overtime—barely made it to 23.

This is who Auburn is. Their best chance is to slow Alabama down, limit possessions, and bring a physical, disruptive defensive presence that keeps the crowd alive. The alternative—allowing Alabama’s offense, with Ty Simpson and their receiving weapons, to find rhythm—is a death sentence. Auburn simply cannot keep pace if the game opens up. If Auburn is going to pull this off, the game has to be played on their terms: defense, field position, pressure, and chaos. We like them to do that and if that style is low scoring. Thus, the Under is the play.

Alabama vs Auburn prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 48.

Rivalry week comes to the Carolinas on Saturday night as the North Carolina State Wolfpack hosts the North Carolina Tar Heels. The inaugural season of Bill Belichick has not gone well, and taking a shot at their in-state rival will be the end of the road for the 4-7 Heels. The Wolpack have pulled off a couple of upsets, including a defeat of then-unbeaten Georgia Tech and then a win over Florida State last week. In this kind of rivalry, heaven only knows how the game will go, and it is hard to think that metrics and trends will hold. Instead, I am going to play the over, especially at a relatively low number. Give me the game total over 47.5.

I love to pick on the NC State defense; they are really bad. The Pack ranks 127 out of 134 in total defense, and prior to Florida State’s ineptitude last week, NC State had given up 41, 36, 53, and 36 in the previous 4 games. I just don’t see how they stop anyone, and I am happy to fade that defense any time. UNC has struggled on both sides of the ball though, and that has this number low. Still, this is a rivalry game, and everyone will pull out all the stops, with nothing to lose. I think this game is really likely to escalate quickly, and it is far more likely to turn into a shootout than a grind.

North Carolina vs North Carolina State Prediction: Over 47.5 (-110) available at the time of publication. Playable at that number.