College Basketball Picks

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The BYU Cougars face the Houston Cougars in a Big 12 matchup that pits one of the nation’s most explosive offenses against one of the toughest defenses in college basketball. BYU enters averaging 86.7 points per game, ranking among the top scoring teams in the country while allowing 73.0 points per contest. The Cougars rely heavily on freshman standout A. J. Dybantsa, who leads the team with 24.9 points per game, while center Keba Keita contributes 7.0 rebounds per game to anchor the frontcourt. BYU’s uptempo style and perimeter shooting allow them to generate points quickly, and when their guards find rhythm the Cougars can put pressure on opposing defenses. However, the defensive side has been less consistent, with BYU surrendering 73.0 points per game, leaving openings for disciplined offenses to keep pace.

Houston enters with a completely different identity under head coach Kelvin Sampson, built around elite defense and physical half court execution. The Cougars average 77.5 points per game while allowing just 62.3 points, one of the best defensive scoring marks in the nation. Guards Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp lead the offense with 16.5 and 15.8 points per game, providing balanced scoring while Houston controls tempo. Earlier this season, Houston defeated BYU 77–66, successfully slowing the pace and forcing BYU into more difficult half court possessions. If Houston can once again dictate tempo, dominate the glass, and limit transition opportunities, its defensive pressure should gradually wear down BYU’s high powered offense. With Houston’s physical defense and disciplined play style creating advantages on both ends, the Cougars appear well positioned to pull away in the second half.

BYU vs Houston Prediction: Houston Cougars -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.

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With the ACC’s top seeds in action on Thursday, we have reached the meat and potatoes of the conference tournament as top-seeded Duke in action against #8 Florida State at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN. Despite a late push from the Cal Golden Bears on Wednesday, the Seminoles controlled most of their second round matchup in a 95-89 win, scoring 1.36 points per possession while shooting 67% from two-point range and 46% beyond the arc. Equally as impressive, the ‘Noles turned it over just 6 times. 

Florida State’s work will be cut out for them when they play Duke on short rest in the ACC quarterfinals, but encouraging is the fact that the Seminoles played well against the Blue Devils earlier this season in a 91-87 win at home. The ‘Noles had similar scoring and shooting metrics in that game as they did against Cal on Wednesday – just a tiny bit lower – and that came against a fully-healthy Duke squad. The difference between that game and this game is that Duke isn’t healthy, Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba. The duo added 23 points, 12 rebounds and 4 assists combined in the first meeting, with Ngongba also putting up 4 stocks (blocks + steals). 

Without their veteran floor-general point guard and defensive interior anchor, this matchup can be tricky for Duke. Florida State has the size required to match Cameron Boozer in the post, and they force turnovers by disrupting passing lanes – which is a much bigger concern for Cayden Boozer in Foster’s absence. All things considered, there’s enough here for me to take the hefty number with the Seminoles. I can see a path to an upset here, but it will likely require both favorable three-point variance and at least 15 points off forced turnovers. 

Florida State vs Duke prediction: Florida State Seminoles +17.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +15.5.

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Using the word “shocking” when describing Ole Miss’ upset win over Texas in the first round of the SEC Tournament might not be the best word considering Texas hasn’t exactly been invincible this season, but it definitely was at least a mild shock to see the Rebels win that game. They ended the regular season with a 1-12 SU record over their last 13 games, losing to teams like Mississippi State, LSU and South Carolina along the way – who have 12 collective conference wins. 

The Rebels advanced to the second round to face the Georgia Bulldogs, who they actually beat in Athens in overtime as part of their 3-game win streak in mid-January. The Rebels shot very well in that game and turned the ball over just 9 times, while Georgia hit 15 threes, pulled in 21 offensive rebounds and had 34 free throw attempts, yet somehow lost. The Bulldogs probably would have won easily if they shot better from inside the arc, where they connected on just 32% of attempts – nearly 25% below their seasonlong baseline against a defense that yields 55% in conference play. 

I don’t have much conviction on the side at the current number, but I do like points here. Georgia plays at a top-10 pace nationally, and while their tempo has slowed just a bit recently, they still want to attack in transition and still are playing to around 75 possessions per game. Ole Miss doesn’t play with that same pace, but the Rebels haven’t balked at running with uptempo teams in the past. Plus, they are playing with more pace of late, sitting in the top 125 in that regard since February 11th per BartTorvik. 

Georgia will do what Georgia does and chuck up threes while Somtochukwu Cyril attacks the offensive glass, which is obviously good for points. Even if those threes don’t go in, long shots tend to lead to long rebounds that initiate transition opportunities the other way. Ole Miss will counter with a defense that is dead last in the SEC in three-point rate allowed, while also sitting at the bottom of the conference in free throw rate allowed. The Dawgs should get their looks from deep, while also earning frequent trips to the charity stripe – just like they did in the first meeting. 

On the other end, Georgia can also be exposed at the three-point line, but the Bulldogs aren’t very good at the rim – where they will be met by slashing guards like AJ Storr, Ilias Kamardine and Patton Pinkins in addition to Malik Dia. This should provide the Rebels with a solid floor offensively. Further providing scoring support should be the abundance of offensive rebounds on both ends, as neither team is any good at preventing second-chance opportunities. 

Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction: Over 156.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 158.5. 

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The Big East tournament keeps on rolling along on Thursday with a matchup that appears to be pretty lopsided on paper. On one side, the Xavier Musketeers are nearing the end of a disappointing season, but they still were able to knock off Marquette as a short underdog on Wednesday. Conversely, the UConn Huskies squandered their chance to capture the Big East regular season title last Saturday when they lost to Marquette in a game that saw head coach Dan Hurley get ejected and UConn fall short in a furious comeback attempt late in the second half. While it’s not my favorite play on the board on Thursday, we do have a clear bounce-back spot on our hands in favor of UConn, and I intend to take advantage.

Historically, Hurley’s team has responded well when coming off a loss, and that trend has continued into this season. Most recently, the Huskies followed up a disastrous loss at home to Creighton by picking up a much-needed win at Villanova, before demolishing St. John’s at home a few days later. We can expect a similar result in this matchup, especially given the series history between these programs this season. UConn has won both meetings by massive margins, with the Huskies defeating Xavier by 23 and 32 points respectively. The Musketeers are also a very poor defensive team, which sets up a spot for UConn’s offense to get hot from beyond the arc and attack the paint against a unit that is outside the top 300 in 2-point percentage allowed (BartTorvik). Look for UConn to establish an early lead and run away with this one in the second half.

Xavier vs UConn prediction: UConn -14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to UConn -15

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The Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the UCLA Bruins will meet on Thursday night in Chicago for the third round of the Big Ten Tournament. It will be UCLA’s first game here, while Rutgers earned a great upset win against Minnesota last night and will look to keep their momentum going. Rutgers will need to win the tournament to make the Big Dance, while UCLA is a projected #8 or #9 seed. UCLA is a double-digit favorite in this one, but my best bet of the game is the under.

The total is currently 141 points, and I’m leaning under in this one because both teams play at a slow pace and neither offense is explosive. UCLA ranks #100 nationally in points per game; Rutgers is #267. The Bruins have an efficient offense, but sit #329 in adjusted tempo, so they do not put up a ton of points on a nightly basis. Rutgers ranks #224 in adjusted tempo and does not have an efficient offense. Moreover, according to KenPom, Rutgers is just #323 in effective field goal percentage and #333 in two-point percentage. Take the under.

Rutgers vs UCLA prediction: Under 141 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at 140.

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The ACC tournament rolls into the quarterfinal round on Thursday and one of the better games of the day features a battle between the Clemson Tigers and North Carolina Tar Heels. To their credit, the Tar Heels have been able to bounce back from losing freshman phenom Caleb Wilson to a season-ending hand injury, as Hubert Davis’ squad has won 5 of the 7 games played in Wilson’s absence, while covering the spread in 6 of those 7 contests. However, this matchup against Clemson is one that could present some real issues for a North Carolina team that barely squeaked past the Tigers in a recent matchup in Chapel Hill. In fact, if it wasn’t for some 3-point shooting heroics from Luka Bogavac — who was 6-of-10 from beyond the arc in that game — North Carolina likely loses at home to a Clemson team that had really bottled up the rest of Tar Heels’ offense otherwise (16-of-48 aside from Bogavac). The Tigers boast one of the best defenses in the ACC, and their prowess on the glass (ranked 14th in defensive rebounding rate) is something that should travel into a conference tournament setting.

On the other side of the ball, Brad Brownell’s team hit a rough patch in February, but this is still an experienced unit that knows how to win big games in March. Clemson is certainly due for some regression in close games, along with some 3-point shooting regression after struggling in that department for the last month, despite typically generating good looks. The Tigers are a team that plays at an extremely slow pace, which typically favors the underdog in a tournament setting, especially since North Carolina is a team that is trying to get out in transition more and generate easier buckets without Wilson in the lineup to simplify things for the offense. If Clemson is able to dictate the pace of this game and shoot a similar percentage from beyond the arc to its win on Wednesday over Wake Forest, the Tigers should be able to exact a bit of revenge and advance to the semifinal round.

Clemson vs North Carolina prediction: Clemson ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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The #11 seed Georgetown Hoyas took care of business against #6 seed DePaul, winning 63-56 while shooting 39.3% from the floor. Georgetown doesn’t have the most powerful offense in the Big East this season, but neither did DePaul. The Hoyas rank 9th in the conference, averaging 74.2 points per game, while giving up 73.4. What stood out most in Georgetown’s win over DePaul was their dominance on the glass and inside the paint. The Hoyas outscored the Blue Demons 36-20 in the paint, and Vince Iwuchukwu stepped up with a huge performance, finishing with 17 points and 14 rebounds. The 7’ 1” center will need another big night, but he’ll have his work cut out for him against Duke Brennan, who is averaging 12.3 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. 

These teams met twice during the regular season, with Villanova winning both matchups — one by 14 points and the other by 7. The Wildcats have been one of the more efficient offensive teams in the Big East this season, and with an extra day of rest, they’ll be fully prepared for this matchup. While Georgetown played strong defense in their last matchup, they were facing a Blue Demons team that ranked 10th in the Big East in scoring. Villanova presents a much tougher challenge offensively, averaging 77.6 points per game this season. The Wildcats move the ball extremely well and rank 4th in the conference in three-point shooting (35.7%). Villanova also has a strong presence inside with Duke Brennan, which is going to create a lot of problems for Georgetown’s defense. Look for Villanova to roll in this matchup as they’re the better team on both ends of the floor, moving on to the next round in the Big East tournament. 

Georgetown vs Villanova prediction: Villanova Wildcats -7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Oklahoma Sooners meet the Texas A&M Aggies in the second round of the SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament on Thursday, setting up a matchup between an Oklahoma team coming off a tournament win and a Texas A&M squad entering fresh after earning a bye. Oklahoma advanced after defeating the South Carolina Gamecocks, showcasing the offensive balance that has helped the Sooners stay competitive throughout the season. Oklahoma averages 74.8 points per game while shooting 45.3% from the field and 35.9% from three-point range, numbers that reflect a capable perimeter attack. Xzayvier Brown contributes to the Sooner attack with 15.6 points per game, while Nijel Pack remains a major scoring threat when his outside shot is falling. Oklahoma has also shown resilience in close games late in the year, including an 88-85 overtime win over the Texas Longhorns, proving the Sooners can execute offensively in high pressure situations.

Texas A&M enters the matchup with a more defensive-minded profile and the advantage of extra rest after its first round bye. The Aggies average 75.6 points per game while allowing 68.4, and they rely heavily on rebounding and physical defense to control tempo. Texas A&M ranks among the better rebounding teams in the conference, averaging 39.1 rebounds per game, which often leads to second-chance scoring opportunities. Forward Rashaun Agee has been a key contributor in the frontcourt with 14.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, providing interior scoring and defensive presence. Earlier this season, Texas A&M defeated Oklahoma 83-76, forcing 17 turnovers and using its defensive pressure to swing momentum late. However, tournament games often slow down and become guard driven, and Oklahoma’s backcourt has the shot making ability to keep pace if the Sooners take care of the basketball. If Oklahoma limits turnovers and finds success from beyond the arc, the Sooners have a strong chance to keep the game close deep into the second half.

Oklahoma vs Texas A&M prediction: Oklahoma Sooners +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

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The #6 seed TCU Horned Frogs are coming off a strong offensive performance against Oklahoma State, shooting 50.7% from the floor — something they’ll look to carry into this matchup against the #3 seed Kansas Jayhawks. TCU is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now, winning 9 of their last 10 games. Kansas, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, winning just 3 of their last 7 matchups. The last time these teams met, Kansas walked away with a 104-100 victory in overtime. Both offenses were very efficient, with Kansas shooting 52% and TCU at 47%. The big difference was Flory Bidunga’s presence inside, as he scored 16 points and 9 rebounds.

On the season, these teams were fairly even on paper. TCU ranks 10th in offense, averaging 78.6 points per game compared to Kansas 76.5. Defensively, Kansas holds the edge, allowing 69.3 points per game compared to TCU’s 71.7. Kansas enters this matchup well rested and is coming off an impressive 104-85 win over Kansas State to close out the regular season, which should give them some confidence heading into this tournament. TCU, however, has already played a game in this tournament and has a lot of momentum on their side. While Kansas holds the advantage in interior defense and rebounding, one explosive offensive performance doesn’t erase the inconsistency the Jayhawks have shown down the stretch. TCU has proven capable of competing with Kansas, and with the way the Horned Frogs have been playing lately, they’re more than capable of keeping this game close. 

TCU vs Kansas prediction: TCU Horned Frogs +5.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Iowa Hawkeyes and Ohio State Buckeyes meet in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals at United Center in Chicago, and both teams are desperate for a resume-building victory as they try and make a case for an at-large bid. The further these teams go in the tournament, the better the case. Iowa was in action on Wednesday, taking down Maryland by a 75-64 score, just missing the money as a -11.5 favorite. Now, the Hawkeyes find Ohio State waiting in the quarters, with a battle against No. 1 Michigan going to the winner.

Iowa crushed Ohio State at Carver Hawkeye Arena on February 25, winning 74-57 as a -6.5 favorite, while the under (141.5) cashed. Bennett Stirtz went for 22 points on 8-of-11 shooting with 3 three-pointers to lead the home side. The Hawkeyes snapped a 3-game skid with the win over Maryland, with their previous victory coming against the Buckeyes. The Buckeyes received a bit of a wake-up call in that loss in I-City, rattling off 3 consecutive victories against Purdue, Penn State and Indiana, while going 3-0 ATS, and 6-1 ATS in the past 7 games. That lone non-cover in the past 7 outings was that poor loss at Iowa. Let’s back the Hawkeyes based on how easily it handled the Buckeyes the first time.

Iowa vs Ohio State prediction: Iowa Hawkeyes ML (-104) at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

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The early game on the Big 12 slate features #5 Iowa State vs #4 Texas Tech. Tech will be playing its first game of the tournament, while the Cyclones got a feel-good win over Arizona State on Wednesday, winning by nearly 50. Hopefully you are aware that Texas Tech lost Big 12 player of the year JT Toppin for the season, but the Red Raiders are by no means impotent without him. In fact, even without Toppin, Tech recently beat Iowa State in Ames, which is one of the toughest home venues in college basketball. Still, I think Iowa State is about to go on a run in this conference tournament, and I like them to win the game. While I am less comfortable with the cover, I’ll still take them at -5.5.

In the prior matchup, the Cyclones had a dreadful night shooting. Part of that was the Tech defense, but part of it was just an anomalous night. They shot a mere 39% from the floor, and they allowed Tech to dominate the boards also. To make matters worse, the Red Raiders shot nearly 60% from the floor that night themselves. Both teams should regress back to the mean on Thursday. Let’s also remember that Iowa State already has a game under their belt, which often is an advantage over the teams with the double byes, and this crowd will also feel like a Cyclone home game. This is a good spot to back the ‘Clones.

Iowa State vs Texas Tech prediction: Iowa State Cyclones -5.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We’re on to the second round in the SEC Tournament, and a meeting between the Kentucky Wildcats and Missouri Tigers leads off the action in Nashville at 12:30 PM ET on SEC Network. The Tigers benefitted from a bye on Tuesday, while the Wildcats took care of business against LSU 87-82. Kentucky scored 1.24 points per possession and held an 11-point lead with just under 7 minutes to play, but they converted on only 27% of threes and failed to get to the window for those that laid the -7.5. 

These teams met just once this season – way back in early January in the second game on the conference calendar – and Missouri stole a win at Rupp Arena 73-68. The Wildcats held an 8-point lead with less than 5 minutes to play, but they couldn’t close it out. Their offensive showing was poor, as they converted on just 45.5% of twos and averaged just 1 point per possession. That said, Missouri wasn’t much better, and the Wildcats held the Tigers to just 4 offensive rebounds – which is typically one of their strengths.  

This is a tough game to project because both teams are relatively inconsistent. That said, Missouri has shown a much lower floor this season in losses to Notre Dame, Ole Miss and LSU, all of whom are outside the top 60 in KenPom’s rankings. As for the Wildcats, they haven’t lost to anyone outside the top 50. In fact, the only team they lost to outside the top 40 is Missouri. 

A couple things concern me about Missouri’s body of work in a tournament setting. Offensively, the Tigers are terrible from the free throw line, and they are even worse in the turnover department – sitting 14th and 16th in the SEC in those metrics, respectively. On the other end, Missouri has one of the worst three-point defenses in the country, ranking 302nd in three-point rate and 338th in three-point percentage allowed. Mind you, these numbers come against the 11th-rated strength of schedule in the SEC (46th-rated nationally). Compare those marks to Kentucky, who is more efficient both offensively and defensively despite a strength of schedule that rates 1st in the conference and 6th nationally. I like Kentucky here.

Kentucky vs Missouri prediction: Kentucky Wildcats -2.5 (-118) at the time of publishing. Playable to -4. 

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At first glance, this Big East Tournament matchup appears tilted toward Seton Hall. The Pirates enter with a 20-11 record, while Creighton sits at 15-16, which explains why the authors of the line installing Seton Hall as a short favorite makes the Pirates look appealing. However, the spread itself is where the deception begins. The difference between the teams’ records masks the fact that this matchup is far closer stylistically than it appears. Creighton has spent the season battling stronger competition and has developed a profile that tends to perform better in tournament environments. The Jays are built on disciplined defensive structure, kind of like Hall is.

Seton Hall’s season success has largely come from grinding out wins in the regular season, but that style can become vulnerable in neutral-court tournament settings, where every possession is magnified. Creighton’s offense is comfortable operating in slower, possession-by-possession games, which reduces the impact of Seton Hall’s physical style. Another important factor is expectation. Seton Hall’s 20-win season creates the perception of stability, while Creighton’s sub-.500 record discourages support. That imbalance often creates hidden value when the teams meet on neutral floors. Tournament basketball frequently rewards teams capable of executing clean half-court offense late in games. The problem with Seton Hall in particular is, they can’t do that. If they could, they would have upset St. John’s in their season finale. Instead, they dropped another rock fight which they can easily do here. Bluejays outright.

Creighton vs Seton Hall prediction: Creighton +125 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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Wisconsin is an attractive side because they are ranked and their offensive identity is built around perimeter shooting and three-point volume. The Badgers are extremely effective when their outside shots are falling, but that reliance also introduces volatility. Teams that depend heavily on three-point production tend to perform inconsistently in tournament environments. Neutral-site games often slow down considerably as possessions become more deliberate and defenses tighten. When that happens, offenses reliant on high-volume perimeter shooting can struggle to maintain efficiency.

Washington benefits from that dynamic. The Huskies are comfortable playing a more methodical style that prioritizes half-court possessions and defensive pressure. In slower games, the value of each possession increases, which naturally benefits underdogs catching multiple points. Another important factor is variance. Wisconsin’s offensive profile allows them to create scoring runs quickly, but it also means they are susceptible to extended scoring droughts if the perimeter shots stop falling. In tournament settings where every possession carries greater weight, teams that rely heavily on outside shooting are inherently vulnerable to cold stretches. If Wisconsin experiences even a modest shooting slump, the margin can disappear quickly. Upset potential is high here.

Washington vs Wisconsin prediction: Washington Huskies +7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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We move to Day 2 of the SEC tournament, and while the top 4 teams relax one more day, the Tennessee Vols will take center stage in their home state of Nashville against the Auburn Tigers. This is a mid-afternoon tip, and Auburn got a crucial win on Wednesday against Mississippi State. That was a can’t-afford-to-lose game, but the Tigers still have work to do. The key story for the Vols is the health of Nate Ament, the star freshman. Ament missed some time at the end of the season with an ankle injury, but he returned to practice this week and is questionable. We likely won’t know his status until tip time, and that has me staying away from the spread. Whether Ament plays or not though, I love this game as an under. Give me the game total under 148.

The only meeting between these teams this season was in late January in Knoxville, and the Vols won 77-69. I have a hard time seeing the scoring push higher in a tournament game. The pressure of tournaments usually has teams playing slower and more carefully. The Vols are already notoriously one of the slowest major conference teams in the nation, and they have a top 20 defense that stifles the opponent every possession. Auburn is a great offense, but they don’t necessarily play all that fast. Unless we have a ton of live ball turnovers that lead to easy transition buckets, this game will have a hard time getting to this point total. Take the under, whether Ament plays or not.

Auburn vs Tennessee prediction: Under 148 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Big 12 tournament gets set for the quarterfinal round on Thursday with a showdown between UCF and top-seeded Arizona. Few teams are playing better than Arizona heading into the postseason, and the Wildcats have bounced back nicely from an early February hiccup to the tune of 6 consecutive victories, with most of them coming by double digits. Tommy Lloyd’s team is excellent in all areas of the game, and the resume over the course of the season certainly speaks volumes as to how well the Wildcats have played. And while this has been a program defined by its offense over the last 5 years, Arizona is actually a defense-first operation this season (ranked 2nd in adjusted efficiency at KenPom). The Wildcats shoot fewer threes than any other power conference team and have won most of their games this season via an efficient offensive attack inside the arc, in addition to their dominance on the glass and on defense. While Arizona is deservedly a massive favorite in this game, I’m more inclined to look toward the total and target the under in this Big 12 clash.

Despite escaping with a victory over Cincinnati in overtime on Wednesday, UCF is still in the midst of a pretty poor run of form over the last 6 weeks. In fact, UCF is just 4-6 since February 1 and it’s hard to see their offense having much success against a top 5 defense in the nation, especially after the Knights just struggled to clear 65 points against Cincinnati in a game that went to overtime. The Bearcats did an excellent job of limiting the Knights’ scoring from beyond the 3-point arc, and as long as Arizona is disciplined in its perimeter defense on Thursday, I don’t expect UCF to suddenly turn things around from deep. With the total being this high, there isn’t a ton of room for error for either offense in a game that could see a few lulls in the scoring given the early start time and neutral site venue. The popular projection models indicate that this total is a touch inflated, and with that in mind, I’ll take the under while it’s still above 160.

UCF vs Arizona prediction: Under 161.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 160

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The Northwestern Wildcats and the Purdue Boilermakers will meet in Chicago for day three of the Big 10 Tournament. This will be game three for the Wildcats already as they played Penn State on Tuesday night to start their postseason run. Purdue is just the #7 seed in the tournament despite being the preseason #1 team in the country. They have not looked like a national championship contender most people expected, but they are still a great team that could make a run in this league tournament. The Boilermakers are -10.5 and that is my best bet of the game.

I like Purdue to bounce back from their loss to Wisconsin on Saturday and make a statement here. The Boilermakers are 6-4 over their last 10 games but are still ranked #8 nationally at Bart Torvik throughout that span. They have one of the best offenses in college basketball that I believe will allow them to cover this spread. Since February 1^st, Purdue is ranked #1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, #37 in effective field goal percentage, #34 in offensive rebounding percentage and #30 in three-point percentage at Bart Torvik. Northwestern’s not a good rebounding team and their three-point defense has not been good recently, so I expect Purdue to expose them there. The Wildcat’s defense is ranked just #287 in effective field goal percentage, #359 in offensive rebouncing percentage and #298 in three-point defense since February 1^st. I do not see their defense being good enough in their third game in three days, so take TCU here.

Northwestern vs Purdue: Purdue Boilermakers -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.