College Basketball Picks

No. 7 Houston will close out the regular season against Oklahoma State as it looks to avoid an upset before heading into the Big 12 tournament. The Cougars were slow out of the gate against Baylor on Senior Night but dominated in the second half, outscoring the Bears 42-29. Houston hasn’t been particularly explosive offensively this season, averaging 77.5 points per game compared to Oklahoma State’s 84.2. However, defense is where the Cougars separate themselves from the rest of the Big 12. Houston is one of the defensive teams in the nation, allowing just 62.3 points per game, while the Cowboys are giving up 82.5.  

Oklahoma State will need to find a way to penetrate Houston’s defense, and that won’t be easy. The Cowboys struggled offensively against strong defensive teams like Cincinnati, Arizona, and Kansas in recent games. However, they did shoot 49.2% against West Virginia, a team that ranks second in the Big 12 in defense. Parsa Fallah has been playing well for the Cowboys, averaging 20 points per game in his last four, someone the Cougars will need to keep a close eye on. Houston may not have a great offense, and they struggled to contain Baylor’s offense early on in their last game, but this Cougars team won’t let that happen again. Look for them to slow down the pace and wrap up the regular season game with a big road win and secure a second-place finish in the Big 12. 

Houston vs Oklahoma State prediction: Houston -12.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This matchup sets up as a strong situational spot to back Villanova, particularly when you consider the contrasting trajectories of the two teams. Villanova enters at 23–7 overall and 13–3 SU at home, while Xavier sits at 14–16 and has struggled mightily away from home with a 1–9 SU road record. Those numbers alone paint a clear picture of where each team stands at this point in the season. Beyond the records, Villanova holds the advantage on both sides of the ball. The Wildcats rate better offensively and defensively by the underlying metrics, which reflects a more balanced and consistent team throughout the year. When Villanova is able to dictate tempo on its home floor, opponents often struggle to generate efficient offense for long stretches.

It may be tempting to look at the teams’ February meeting, where Villanova escaped with only a three-point win, and assume this matchup will be similarly tight. But that game was played in Cincinnati, and this setting is entirely different. The Wildcats are back in Philadelphia, where they’ve been one of the more reliable home teams in the conference. The point spread accentuates this very point. Motivation also favors Villanova. The Wildcats have their eyes on March Madness. Xavier, meanwhile, appears to be limping toward the finish line of a disappointing season. This is a spot where Villanova’s advantages should show over forty minutes.

Xavier vs Villanova prediction: Villanova -11.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -12.

The UConn Huskies are ranked inside the Top 5, and looking for another deep run in March. It’s became a regular happening in recent seasons under head coach Dan Hurley, who led the team to back-to-back national championships in 2023 and 2024. This team, with Tarris Reed, Solo Ball, Alex Karaban, etc. has the tools to win another natty. UConn has won three in a row since falling at home to Creighton on Feb. 18, averaging 72.0 PPG, while allowing 67 or fewer points in each. The Huskies roughed up the Golden Eagles 73-57 in the first meeting in Storrs on Jan. 4, too, although UConn missed covering as a 17.5-point favorite.

Marquette has had a down season for Shaka Smart, and it will take a miracle for the Golden Eagles to find its way into the NCAA Tournament. It needs to win the Big East Tournament. Marquette can grab some momentum with a Q1 win over UConn, but don’t bank on it. Marquette has lost four of the past six games outright, although it has cashed in three in a row as an underdog, while going 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past seven outings. Still, despite Marquette’s solid run against the number, it shouldn’t be much more than a speed bump for UConn.

UConn -9 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -10.5.

The Arizona State Sun Devils were on fire earlier in the season, making a magical run in November to the Maui Invitational Championship before falling to USC. It’s been all downhill since then, with Sparky barely above .500. However, Arizona State showed in the past couple of weeks, at least at home, that it can be dangerous. It topped Kansas 70-60 as a 5.5-point underdog in Tempe, and it was ‘Forks Up’ in a 72-67 upset of Texas Tech on Feb. 17 as a 7.5-point underdog. However, on the road, Arizona State is just 1-8 in the past nine games. AZ State has covered five of the past six games, though, while going 9-2 ATS in the previous 11 outings. It is a respectable 4-3 ATS in the past seven road games, too, and it has cashed in two of the past three as a double-digit ‘dog.

For Iowa State, it is trying to build momentum heading into the Big 12, and the NCAA Tournament. It has lost the past two games to Texas Tech and Arizona, while dropping three of the past four games, likely fumbling away a shot at a 1- or 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament. It is just 1-3 ATS in the past four games, too, while going 2-3 ATS in the past five as a favorite of 7.5 or more points. Let’s take Arizona State catching the big points.

Arizona State +15 (-115) at time of publishing. Playable to +14.

Saturday afternoon gives us a meaningful matching between two teams who have closed the season strongly, as the TCU Horned Frogs host the Cincinnati Bearcats. Both teams are fringe tournament teams, and they could use some wins to finish making their case. The Frogs have won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 8, including wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech. The Bearcats have won 6 of their last 7, and the feather in their cap is a win at Kansas. These teams profile similarly, so I don’t expect a lot of separation either way, but I am going to take the Bearcats +2.

When I say they profile similarly, KenPom separates these teams by 3 slots. Both offenses hover around the 100 mark in the rankings, inside the top 20 defensively, and back-to-back in terms of tempo or pacing. For me, I think the difference in this game is the elite defense of the Bearcats. They defend everything well—they defend the arc, they defend the rim, they rebound, the cause turnovers, and they keep the opponent off the foul line. And they seem to do that to everyone. I think the TCU offense will struggle, even at home. It is just a lean for me, but I like the Bearcats in this spot.

Cincinnati vs TCU Prediction: Cincinnati +2 (-185) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

No. 14 Kansas will look to regain its rhythm as it welcomes Kansas State to the Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks’ offense has struggled recently, averaging just 65.5 points per game in their last six games. To their credit, many of those games came against elite defenses, including then-No. 5 Iowa State, Cincinnati, then-No. 5 Houston, and then-No. 2 Arizona. However, Kansas had trouble generating offense in its most recent outing against Arizona State, shooting just 29.2% from the floor.  

The Jayhawks are massive favorites in this matchup, which isn’t surprising given their resume this season. Kansas State hasn’t been much better lately, losing eight of its last ten games, though the Wildcats are coming off an impressive win over a West Virginia defense that ranks second in the Big 12. Kansas State managed that victory without PJ Haggerty, who is listed as questionable heading into this matchup. The last time these two teams met, Kansas won by 24 points on the road, holding the Wildcats to just 34.4% shooting and dominating in the paint 46-18. Even though Kansas has struggled offensively as of late, this is a game they need to dominate to regain their confidence before heading into the conference tournament. Look for the Jayhawks to buckle down and win big at home to wrap up the season. 

Kansas State vs Kansas prediction: Kansas -17.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Louisville Cardinals face off against the Miami Hurricanes on Saturday for an ACC matchup. It is the last game of the season for both teams before they will head to Charlotte for the ACC Tournament. Neither team will need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, but wins would go a long way for seeding purposes. Miami has been playing great over the last month and have shot up the seed list. I expect them to stay hot and cover the spread against Louisville here.

Miami is currently -1.5-point favorites, and I am backing them to cover that spread on Saturday. The Hurricanes are 7-1 since February started and their lone loss came to Virginia on the road by three points. Louisville has potential to be a great team, but they have not showed it in their toughest games this year. They are 0-8 in Quad 1A games this season and their best player Mikel Brown Jr. will not suit up. He will be out again with a back injury, and I do not see them having enough to get the job done. Take Miami -1.5.

*Miami -1.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -3*

On the heels of a dramatic 89-86 overtime win at Ole Miss on Tuesday, the Vanderbilt Commodores will make the short trip to Knoxville to play their rivals in the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday afternoon. It will be Vandy’s 3rd straight road game, as well as a revenge game after they dropped the first meeting at home in Nashville 69-65 and were held to just 1.03 points per possession in the process. Per Haslametrics, it was Vandy’s 2nd-worst offensive showing in conference play, while it was Tennessee’s best defensive performance against SEC opponents.

Vandy has lost some of their steam. They started the season 16-0 overall and 3-0 in the SEC, but since suffering their first loss of the year at Texas, they have been a .500 club – going 7-7 over their last 14 games. Further, they are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Honestly, they could easily be 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in that stretch given how they played at Ole Miss and the narrow 8-point victory over Georgia when laying -7.5. Coming into this contest, the Commodores are 348th nationally in Haslametrics’ Momentum, mostly bogged down by a defense that is 359th in that regard. It makes sense considering Vanderbilt is 115th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 229th in effective field goal percentage allowed since February 1 per BartTorvik.

Tennessee is one of the nation’s best rebounding teams, which has been a weakness of Vanderbilt all year long and showed in the first meeting when the Vols pulled down 14 offensive rebounds. Furthermore, Tennessee boasts a top-15 home defense per BartTorvik’s adjusted efficiency, holding opponents to a 45.1% effective field goal percentage in their home gym. That bodes well for the Vols in this contest considering there has been a decent drop-off in Vandy’s offensive efficiency when playing on the road in conference. Given Vandy’s road inconsistencies and questionable current form, I don’t see a win or a cover for the ‘Dores in this revenge game. Lay it with the Vols. 

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee prediction: Tennessee Volunteers -3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -5. 

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A clash between a couple of the biggest brands in the SEC is one of the headline matchups on Saturday’s college basketball slate, and for good reason. Florida enters this game as one of the hottest teams in the country, as the Gators have rolled through the SEC over the last couple of months. On the other side, Kentucky has been pretty inconsistent all season long, and Mark Pope’s team can’t be counted on to show up and deliver for a full 40 minutes every time out. However, the Wildcats have been excellent at home, to the tune of a 14-3 record on the season. Florida was able to knock off the Wildcats in the first meeting between these teams back on February 14, but the Gators didn’t cover the spread as double-digit favorites at home. I backed Kentucky in that game, and I’m going to go back to the well with the Wildcats to keep this one within a couple of possessions on Saturday. 

On paper, Florida doesn’t have much to play for in this game. After all, the Gators have already clinched the regular season SEC title and will be the top seed in the conference tournament next week. Furthermore, while Florida certainly has an outside shot at a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Gators will need some help from UConn in order to reach the top seed line. As long as the Huskies at least make the Big East tournament final, there probably isn’t much that Florida can do to pass UConn given that they have a head-to-head loss back in the nonconference portion of the schedule. With that in mind, it wouldn’t shock me if the Gators didn’t play their sharpest game

The Wildcats can take things from that first meeting and carry over that success into Saturday’s matchup, including an inspired performance on the glass against Florida’s excellent frontcourt. Furthermore, while Florida’s guards have been excellent in recent weeks, this is still a Gators offense that is well outside the top 300 in 3-point percentage and 3-point rate. Kentucky’s defense has been a bit better than perception suggests, and as long as the Wildcats are somewhat competitive on the glass and can keep the shot volume battle close, there is a path for success for the hosts in this one. Throw in the fact that this is one of the toughest environments that Florida will face in SEC play, and this sets up to be a good spot to back Kentucky at Rupp Arena. I’ll take the Wildcats to keep this game within the number.

Florida vs Kentucky prediction: Kentucky +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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This matchup has the feel of a March Madness game even though the calendar hasn’t yet reached the Big Ten tournament. On paper, Purdue and Wisconsin share several similarities. Both teams average over 80 points per game, both take care of the basketball extremely well, and neither side is prone to careless turnovers. In many respects, the statistical profiles of these two programs look very similar at first glance. However, the key difference lies in how each team prefers to control the game. Wisconsin operates at a more moderate tempo and leans heavily on its perimeter offense. The Badgers are at their best when the ball moves quickly and the three-point shot is falling. Their spacing and outside shooting are essential components of their offensive identity.

Purdue, meanwhile, brings a very different style. The Boilermakers are comfortable slowing the game down and forcing opponents to play in a more controlled half-court environment. Their pace numbers rank outside the top 315 nationally, illustrating how methodical they can be offensively. Purdue values possession, limits mistakes, and pairs that approach with a defense capable of disrupting rhythm offenses. That contrast becomes especially important inside Mackey Arena, where Purdue historically thrives. Wisconsin’s reliance on perimeter shooting introduces volatility in a hostile environment. If those outside shots aren’t falling, the Badgers can struggle to keep up. Purdue’s balance of disciplined offense, strong defense, and home-court control makes the Boilermakers the side to back in a game they can easily win big.

Wisconsin vs Purdue prediction: Purdue -8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.

The Ohio State Buckeyes host the Indiana Hoosiers in an important B1G clash. The Buckeyes seem to have played themselves onto the safe side of the bubble over the past few games, while Indiana may be sitting on the wrong side of the cut line if they drop this one on the road. Ohio State beat Purdue last week, then kept the momentum going with a win at Penn State. Indiana, on the other hand, broke a 4-game losing streak with a win this week over Minnesota. The Buckeyes have been playing better basketball lately, and I trust them at home. Give me Ohio State -4.5.

Ohio State ranks inside the top 30 in both KenPom and Torvik rankings, and that is probably a surprise to most folks. They had some injury problems a few weeks ago, but once they got healthy, they started playing well again. This team is pretty good on both sides of the ball. Indiana is a metrics darling that does not seem to translate into wins on the court. Right now, I just can’t trust them to be a good team, especially on the road, where the Hoosiers are 3-7. Road trips in the major conferences are tough in general, and I think Indiana is in trouble here. Give me the Buckeyes.

Indiana vs Ohio State Prediction: Ohio State -4.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The North Carolina Tar Heels received some devastating news when it was announced that freshman star Caleb Wilson broke his right thumb dunking in practice on Thursday, which will require surgery and end his season. It’s extremely disappointing because Wilson was working his way back from a broken bone in his other hand and had been cleared to ramp up for a return to action. Ahead of a rematch with rival Duke, this could be a significant emotional blow to the Heels.

Duke has only lost once in conference, and that loss came in Chapel Hill a month ago when Seth Trimble hit a game-winning three at the buzzer. The Blue Devils controlled a large portion of that game, jumping out to an 18-5 lead at the beginning and even leading by 6 with just under 4 minutes to play, but they scored just 9 points in the final 10 minutes and were without Patrick Ngongba for a large portion of the contest due to foul trouble. Meanwhile, Wilson went off for 23 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and a block. Trimble may be credited with the heroic moment, but Wilson guided the Heels throughout the game. 

This is a massive number for any rivalry game – much less the best rivalry in college basketball and arguably all of sports – which makes the underdog appealing on the surface. That said, thanks to their win over Clemson earlier this week, the Heels have already locked up a top-4 seed in the ACC Tournament, and hence will benefit from a double-bye next week no matter what happens in this game. In other words, aside from pride within the rivalry, there’s not much for them to play for on Saturday – especially considering they are already considered to be in the NCAA Tournament field. 

As for Duke, they definitely don’t need this game, as they are firmly on the #1 line in both the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament. Despite that, I expect some added motivation from the Blue Devils after their colossal collapse at the Dean Dome last month. Since that loss, Duke has 7 straight wins, and all of them were fairly convincing – even the 5-point win over Michigan. In their 2 most recent outings, the Blue Devils handled Virginia 77-51 at home and then turned around 2 days later and smashed NC State on the road 93-64. This team is absolutely cruising right now. Without Wilson, I don’t see how the Heels will successfully defend Cameron Boozer for 40 minutes or keep pace with his scoring against Duke’s tenacious defense that ranks 7th nationally in adjusted efficiency at home per BartTorvik. It’s Duke or nothing for me in this one, even on the inflated line.

North Carolina vs Duke prediction: Duke Blue Devils -16.5 (-106) at the time of publishing. Playable to -18. 

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The Auburn Tigers will travel to Tuscaloosa on Saturday for an SEC rivalry game against the Alabama Crimson Tide. This will the second edition of the basketball version of the Iron Bowl this season as these two teams met in Auburn back on February 7^th. The Crimson Tide came away with a big road victory in that one and I expect them to get another win here. The Tigers are just 16-14 on the season and need another win to keep their tournament hopes alive, but I do not see them doing that. I am backing Alabama -8.5 here.

I like Alabama in this game because I believe their offense will have great success against a mediocre Auburn defense. The Crimson Tide scored 96 points in the last meeting and shot an impressive 52% from three-point land. According to KenPom, Auburn’s defense is ranked just #115 in adjusted defensive efficiency and #345 in three-point percentage. Alabama leads the country in three-pointers per game at 13 and points per game at 92, so I do not see this Auburn defense giving them must resistance. Take Alabama to cover here.

*Alabama -8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -10*

The No. 1 seed Tennessee State Tigers meet the No. 2 seed Morehead State Eagles in the Ohio Valley Conference Final at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana. For the most part, the OVC Tournament ended up going according to plan, with higher seed winning five of the six games so far. Tennessee State and Morehead State each earned byes until the semifinals, and each obviously won those games. Tennessee State ousted rival Tennessee-Martin 68-55 on Friday, while Morehead State topped Southeast Missouri State 66-61.

The Tigers covered as a 2.5-point underdog against the Skyhawks despite being the top overall seed. TSU has won and covered four in a row since Feb. 14, when it lost at Morehead State, 94-86. While the Under cashed last time out, and in the final three regular-season games, the Over cashed in the first meeting with Morehead State on Jan. 15, a 105-100 OT win in Nashville, and the Over is 5-3 in the past eight meetings in this series. Morehead State covered both meetings, while going 7-1 ATS in the past eight in the series, if you’re looking for a same-game parlay (SGP) opportunity. But, the best bet here is to go Over on the total, even with the pressure and nerves with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line.

Over 149.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 150.5.

The Washington Huskies will travel to Eugune on Saturday for a Big 10 Conference game against the Oregon Ducks. It will be senior night for the Ducks, and it will the final game of the season for both teams. Neither team will be in the NCAA Tournament, but going into the Big 10 Tournament with a win would give the winner confidence to build upon. The Huskies are coming off a blowout win against USC in their last game and I expect them to get their second straight win here. I am backing Washington to win this one.

Washington money line is my best bet of the game because I believe they are the more talented team and have a big man in Hannes Steinbach that can slow down Oregon center Nate Bittle. It will be a fascinating big man matchup between Steinbach and Bittle, but I do not see Oregon’s offense being good enough to win. According to KenPom, Oregon’s offense is ranked just #131 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and are ranked just #271 in points per game. Take Washington money line.

*Washington Money Line. Playable et -2*