College Basketball Picks

After a long and eventful regular season and the chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived, and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. The opening game on Friday’s slate features an intriguing matchup between the Santa Clara Broncos and Kentucky Wildcats in a battle between a couple of teams that are trending in opposite directions. While Kentucky is likely to be a popular choice in this game, there is certainly an opportunity for the WCC finalists to compete in this game, and potentially win outright against an overvalued SEC opponent.

Santa Clara is a team that I’ve been high on all season long, and the Broncos not only showed their prowess in WCC play, but they also played really well in the non-conference portion of the schedule. In fact, Herb Sendek’s team knocked off the likes of Minnesota, Xavier, Nevada and McNeese State, while losing to St. Louis by just 1 point in a neutral site game. The Broncos consistently played up to their competition level this season, and if they had managed to upset St. Louis or Arizona State (a game they lost by just 3 points), they likely would be sitting on the #9 seed line, instead of a bubble team on the #10 seed line. Santa Clara boasts one of the best offenses at the mid-major level, with the Broncos ranking inside the top 15 in adjusted efficiency and top 40 in 2-point percentage (BartTorvik). This is a team that also generates offensive rebounds at an elite level (ranked 19th nationally) and should be able to thrive against a Kentucky defense that is outside the top 150 in rebounding rate and is an abysmal 233rd in free-throw rate allowed on the season.

On the other side, it’s fair to expect the Wildcats to have the majority of the crown for this one, seeing as the game is being played in St. Louis. However, this still doesn’t profile as a good matchup for Mark Pope’s team. For starters, Santa Clara’s pressure defense should be able to force the Kentucky offense into some turnovers, which is an issue the Wildcats have struggled with all season. If the pace of this game starts to increase, that also favors a Santa Clara team that likes to get out and run in order to generate early offense. I do have some concerns with the Broncos’ high foul rate, and Kentucky should be able to generate success against the Santa Clara interior defense. However, the Broncos do a pretty decent job of defending the 3-point line, and Kentucky has not shot the ball well from beyond the arc this season (167th in 3-point percentage). In a game that should come down to the final minutes, I’ll side with the underdog Broncos catching over a possession.

Santa Clara vs Kentucky prediction: Santa Clara +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3. 

After a long and eventful regular season and the beautiful chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. One of the first games on Friday’s slate features a team that profiles as a March sleeper in the Akron Zips, and there is an opportunity for the champions of the MAC to make a splash against a Big 12 opponent.

Akron has been in this spot before, as this is the third straight year that John Groce’s side has made the Big Dance, and they should be able to learn from their previous experiences in this setting. Led by Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott in the backcourt, the Zips have veteran leaders all over the floor and an offense that has the capability to do major damage both from the perimeter and in the paint. Akron boasts one of the most efficient mid-major offenses inside of 15 feet, and the Zips can also knock down outside shots at nearly a 40% clip. Furthermore, Akron should be able to create second-chance opportunities with its prowess on the glass, while Texas Tech has taken a massive hit in the rebounding department over the last month (288th in defensive rebounding rate). On the other side, it’s also worth mentioning that while Texas Tech has played admirably without the services of JT Toppin (out for the season with a torn ACL), the Red Raiders have now become incredibly reliant on their backcourt play and outside shooters. To their credit, Grant McCasland’s team has shot the lights out from beyond the arc in recent weeks, but that just signals to me that regression is certainly coming due for a team that is top 10 in both 3-point rate and 3-point percentage over the last month. If Texas Tech has a less-than-stellar day from deep, that creates a real opportunity for Akron to keep things very close and potentially spring the upset. 

Akron vs Texas Tech prediction: Akron +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

The Wright State Raiders held off the Detroit Mercy Titans in the Horizon League final to advance to the NCAA Tournament. Wright State has won five in a row, while covering four of those outings, and the Raiders are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) across the previous eight contests. Wright State has posted a 7-2 ATS mark in nine games this season as an underdog, winning three of those games outright. Wright State suffered a 77-67 loss at Cal on Nov. 6 as a 14.5-point underdog in its only game of the season against an ACC opponent.

As for Virginia, it finished the season ranked inside the Top 10, and it likely fell off the 2-line to the 3-line with its loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament final. But, the Cavaliers are 3-0 ATS in the past three games. However, the Cavaliers finished the regular season just 2-7 ATS in the final nine games, and 3-10 ATS across the final 13 regular-season contests. This is a high-octane offense, unlike Virginia teams we’ve seen in the past. However, Wright State is a strong offense with decent perimeter shooting, and the Raiders have the ability to keep it within 20 points.

Wright State vs Virginia prediction: Wright State +18.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +17.5.

#15 seed Tennessee State Tigers will get ready to take on the #2 seed Iowa State Cyclones in the second day of the Round of 64 on Friday. Tennessee State comes out of the Ohio Valley Conference, where they dominated Morehead State in the championship game, shooting 49.3% from the floor. The Tigers have three players averaging double figures this season, led by Aaron Nkrumah with 17.6 points per game, and with Travis Harper II right behind him at 17.3. This backcourt is talented and capable of creating offense, but this matchup represents a major jump in competition. Earlier in the season, Tennessee State faced Tennessee and suffered a 29-point loss – something that could foreshadow what’s ahead here.  

On the other side, Iowa State has been one of the more dynamic offensive teams in the country. According to KenPom, they rank 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency, scoring 123.8 points per 100 possessions. Milan Momcilovic leads the Cyclones with 17.1 points per game and presents a matchup nightmare – he can score at the rim and stretch defenses, shooting an impressive 49.6% from beyond the arc. Defensively, Tennessee State has struggled, ranking near the bottom of their conference while allowing 73.3 points per game and opponents to shoot 44.4% from the field. Iowa State holds opponents to just 65.1 points per game on 42.6% shooting. The Cyclones also thrive on defensive pressure, forcing opponents into 15.3 turnovers per game. 

While Tennessee State does a solid job protecting the basketball, handling Iowa State’s aggressive defense will be a major challenge. In the end, the Cyclones simply have too much talent on both ends of the floor. While Tennessee State may have the slight rebounding advantage, I don’t expect that to make a big impact in this matchup. Look for Iowa State to control this game from start to finish and roll comfortably into the next round of the NCAA Tournament. 

Tennessee State vs Iowa State prediction: Iowa State -24.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Friday’s Midwest regional in Tampa gives us the #4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs the #13 Hofstra Pride. Alabama made headlines this week as the team’s second leading scorer was arrested on drug charges and is likely to miss the tournament as a result. That has people sniffing around at this game for an upset. Hofstra closed the season hot, winning their final 7 games on the way to the Colonial title. I don’t know that I want to risk that upset pick, or maybe even the spread, but I do like this game total to stay under 159.5.

Anytime Alabama is involved, there is a threat the score goes to the moon. They play faster than anyone, and they take the first good shot they see. Hofstra is the opposite. They sit outside the top 300 in terms of tempo. They are, however, excellent beyond the arc, and that is the characteristic that is almost always present with the upset-seekers. So why the under? Alabama is missing a key scorer, and Hofstra likes to play slow. Hofstra can’t win a track meet. If they can protect the ball and shorten the number of possessions enough to stay in it early, it will almost certainly be a low-scoring game. And if they can’t compete? They will probably get blown out altogether. This should be an under.

Hofstra vs Alabama prediction: Under 159.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 155.5.

Friday’s West regional action from San Diego includes the Utah State Aggies vs the Villanova Wildcats in an 8-vs-9 matchup. This matchup is intriguing because the teams are similar, and both have quietly put together outstanding seasons that most have not noticed. Villanova pretty well handled everyone not named UConn and St. John’s. Utah St smoothly ran through the Mountain West with just a couple of hiccups here or there. Honestly, I think Utah State is under-seeded, and I think they are just better, so I am taking the Aggies to cover -1.5.

Utah State is hyper efficient. They don’t turn the ball over, they don’t shoot a lot of threes, and they aren’t particularly flashy. What they do, however, is get into the paint and score. A lot. They have the 11th-best 2-pt% in the nation, which also leads the way to the 14th-best effective FG%. They are just smooth and efficient. Nova isn’t bad, but they don’t do a lot of outstanding things. They will likely need to get hot from outside to beat the Aggies, and I don’t like that they are playing on the other side of the country. A lot lines up will for the Aggies here.

Utah State vs Villanova prediction: Utah State -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Friday’s West regional action from San Diego includes the Utah State Aggies vs the Villanova Wildcats in an 8-vs-9 matchup. This matchup is intriguing because the teams are similar, and both have quietly put together outstanding seasons that most have not noticed. Villanova pretty well handled everyone not named UConn and St. John’s. Utah St smoothly ran through the Mountain West with just a couple of hiccups here or there. Honestly, I think Utah State is under-seeded, and I think they are just better, so I am taking the Aggies to cover -1.5.

Utah State is hyper efficient. They don’t turn the ball over, they don’t shoot a lot of threes, and they aren’t particularly flashy. What they do, however, is get into the paint and score. A lot. They have the 11th-best 2-pt% in the nation, which also leads the way to the 14th-best effective FG%. They are just smooth and efficient. Nova isn’t bad, but they don’t do a lot of outstanding things. They will likely need to get hot from outside to beat the Aggies, and I don’t like that they are playing on the other side of the country. A lot lines up will for the Aggies here.

Utah State vs Villanova prediction: Utah State -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks managed to go 31-0 during the regular season, but they lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament against UMass. That actually put their NCAA Tournament chances in danger, as Miami had no Quad 1 games on its resume, while going just 3-0 in Q2 games. However, the Redhawks snuck into the Field of 68 with a First Four game in Dayton against SMU. Just an hour from campus, the Redhawks did what they do best, shoot threes, while playing up-tempo basketball, and Miami secured its first Q1 win with an 89-79 victory over the Mustangs. It was the first NCAA Tournament win for Miami since 1999, when it made the Sweet 16.

The Volunteers are a strong rebounding team, and they have a very good defense, too. But, Miami figures to put them to the test from the perimeter. In addition, the Redhawks are a top-tier rebounding team, too, ranking eighth in the nation with a plus-15.4 rebounding differential. While this is another difficult test for Miami, it can also tap into the disrespect angle, as a team which has lost just a single game on the season is an 11-seed, and it is a double-digit underdog. Take Miami catching the double-digit points, and hope that it can maintain its decent perimeter shooting against a tough SEC opponent which went to the Elite Eight last season.

Miami (OH) vs Tennessee prediction: Miami (Ohio) +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.

The Iowa Hawkeyes and the Clemson Tigers will meet in Tampa Bay for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The game will tip off at 6:30pm EST on Friday and should be one of the best games of the day. The eight vs nine matchup is usually a toss-up and the spread indicates that it will be a close finish. The winner of this one will likely play Florida in the round of 32 and have the opportunity to shock the world. Iowa is a short favorite as the nine seed in this one, but my best bet of the game is the under. The total is currently set at 129 points and that is the play here.

I am taking the under in this game because both teams play at a very slow pace and will look to slow the game down as much as possible. According to KenPom, Iowa is ranked 357th in adjusted tempo while Clemson is ranked 333rd. Neither team is ranked highly in points per game, so I do not expect points to be that many points to be scored. The total has finished under the number in 60 percentage of Clemson’s games this season and I expect that trend to continue here. Take the under.

Iowa vs Clemson prediction: Under 129 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 128.

The UCF Knights and the UCLA Bruins will face off on Friday in Philadelphia in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. The game will tip off at 7:25pm EST in Xfinity Mobile Arena before UConn and Furman take the court afterwards. UCLA made it to the Big 10 semifinals last weekend and are playing like we expected in the preseason as of late. They struggled early in the season but have seemed to turn the corner recently, so I am backing them to cover this spread.

UCLA is a 5.5-point favorite, and the Bruins are my best bet of the game. I like UCLA to cover against UCF because I believe their offense will be too much for the UCF defense. Per KenPom, the Knights are ranked just 235th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 187th in three-point percentage. The Bruins offense is ranked 16th in 3-point percentage and should have success from beyond the arc here. Guard play is important in March and UCLA has three great guards in Donovan Dent, Trent Perry and Skyy Clark. I am backing them to cover here and would not be surprised if they challenge UConn in the round of 32. Take UCLA to over in this one.

UCF vs UCLA prediction: UCLA -5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at -6.

#2 Purdue draws #15 Queens to open the West regional on Friday. You probably know about Purdue, who is perennially among the best teams in the nation. What about Queens? The Royals are fairly new to Division I, and this is actually their first year of tournament eligibility. They won the ASUN, but they are going to have all sorts of trouble with Purdue. Queens was smoked by every power conference opponent they played this season, and Purdue should do the same.

The biggest concern here is the Royals’ tragic defense, which ranks outside the top 300 nationally. That’s a problem. The Boilermakers are going to be able to score in just about any way they want, and they will also likely control the rebounding at a 3-1 rate. Queens likes to play fast and shoot a lot, but this is a disaster matchup for them as Purdue just doesn’t allow teams to get into that kind of offensive rhythm. There is no way Purdue takes down Michigan on Sunday and then struggles in the first round, right? Give me the Boilermakers to cover.

Queens vs Purdue prediction: Purdue -25.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Prairie View A&M Panthers scored an impressive 67-55 victory in a First Four game against the Lehigh Mountain Hawks of the Patriot League. It was the first-ever NCAA Tournament win for the Panthers, who hit 47% from the field, with F Cory Wells went for 19 points, 11 rebounds, three steals and three blocks while G Dontae Horne ended up with 25 points, seven rebounds, four steals, a block and a three-pointer. The SWAC representative has been on fire in the postseason, winning and covering five in a row. It has won 1o the past 11 games, too, while going 11-0 against the spread (ATS) since Feb. 16, too. Against the SEC this season, PVAM has covers against Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M, each on the road.

The defending national champions are likely going to be super angry after suffering a 91-74 loss against Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals, and it has failed to cover the past two games. However, Florida did close the regular season on a 9-2 ATS run from Jan. 28 to March 7. The Gators likely won’t be out to embarrass the Panthers, calling off the dogs after building a big lead, letting the reserves play. As a favorite of 30 or more points, Florida is 0-4 ATS this season.

Prairie View A&M vs Florida prediction: Prairie View A&M +35.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +34.5.

After a long and eventful regular season and the beautiful chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. One of the final games on Friday’s slate features a team in Cal Baptist that is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance matching up with Kansas — one of the historic blue bloods in the sport. And while I do lean toward laying the points with Jayhawks, I’ll be focusing instead on the total in this one.

For starters, this is a game that profiles nicely as a lower-scoring battle given how both teams tend to operate. In fact, there are multiple game script avenues for this matchup to stay under the total, which gives me confidence in targeting the under at the current number. Kansas is a defense-first operation this season, as the Jayhawks boast a top 10 defense in the nation and are especially elite inside the paint thanks to the presence of big man Flory Bidunga, who is up there with the best individual defenders in college basketball. The Jayhawks lone weakness on defense is on the boards, but they’ve still been able to win plenty of games in a loaded Big 12 conference with their defensive intensity and discipline. Kansas is not only a very effective defense at the rim, but Bill Self’s team has been able to defend the basket at a high level without fouling, as the Jayhawks are 29th in free-throw rate allowed and 5th in 2-point defense on the year.

As for the underdog in this game, Cal Baptist is barely inside the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom), and while Dominique Daniels Jr. is electric off the bounce, the Lancers top scoring threat could be in some real trouble in this one against a Kansas defense that has plenty of length and athleticism to slow down the high-scoring combo guard. Elsewhere, the Lancers don’t shoot threes (328th in 3-point rate) or get to the free-throw line and they’re quite strong on the offensive glass, so we could see plenty of elongated possessions in this one, especially if this is a closer game than what oddsmakers expect. After all, Cal Baptist’s real strength is on defense (ranked 37th in adjusted efficiency) and Kansas has struggled mightily away from home when it comes to knocking down outside shots. Don’t expect the Jayhawks to put up a ton of points in this game, and even if Kansas is in a good position to cover this massive spread, it will be due to its excellent defense and ability to comfortably navigate a game that is being played in the mud. I’ll take a shot on the under at the current number.

Cal Baptist vs Kansas prediction: Under 138.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 138.

The Furman Paladins face the UConn Huskies in the Round of 64, with Furman bringing a disciplined, guard oriented attack into a matchup against one of the nation’s most physical programs. Furman enters averaging 77.6 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field and 36.1% from three point range, relying heavily on ball movement and perimeter efficiency. The Paladins average 15.6 assists per game and commit just 11.3 turnovers, showing their ability to execute in the half court and avoid mistakes. However, they allow 72.1 points per game and can struggle against teams that control the glass, as they average just 33.9 rebounds per game. Their path in this game will be tempo—slowing things down, limiting possessions, and knocking down perimeter shots to offset UConn’s size advantage.

UConn enters averaging 79.8 points per game while allowing just 64.8, continuing to profile as one of the more balanced teams in the field. The Huskies shoot 48.7% from the field and dominate the boards with 40.9 rebounds per game, consistently creating second chance opportunities. Their offense is built on efficiency and depth rather than one primary scorer, with multiple players averaging double figures and the ability to attack both inside and out. Defensively, UConn holds opponents to under 43% shooting and excels at protecting the paint, which could limit Furman’s ability to generate easy looks. Over the course of 40 minutes, UConn’s physicality and rebounding edge are likely to wear down Furman, especially if the Huskies can turn defensive stops into transition chances. While Furman’s shooting gives them a chance to stay competitive early, UConn’s balance, depth, and interior dominance should allow them to gradually create separation.

Furman vs UConn prediction: UConn -20.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -22.5.

The Missouri Tigers ended up securing just a 10-seed, but the basketball gods shined down on the team, as they landed in the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, which is essentially a home game. Missouri suffered a 78-72 loss against Kentucky in its first game at the SEC Tournament, and the Tigers do head in with 3 consecutive losses. Still, this is a team which has won 20 games, and it has a 6-4 against the spread mark in the past 10 games. This is a Missouri team which also has scored wins over NCAA Tournament teams Howard, Prairie View A&M, Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Tennessee, so it is potent.

The Miami Hurricanes have to be angry with their placement, having to essentially play a road game. The U won against Louisville in the ACC Tournament before bowing out against Virginia, which ended up going to the championship game. There’s no shame in that. Miami has also displayed the ability to beat anybody, picking up wins over North Carolina, NC State and SMU, but it doesn’t necessarily have the same resume as Mizzou. Let’s take the Tigers playing in their backyard in what is essentially a coin-flip game.

Missouri vs Miami prediction: Missouri ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.