College Basketball Picks

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The Missouri Valley Conference is one of the best mid-major tournaments on the Championship Week calendar every year, and this season’s installment has been no exception. Top-seeded Belmont was upset in the quarterfinal round, which has led to a couple of the lower seeds playing for an NCAA Tournament berth on Sunday. On one side, UIC has dispatched of both opponents its played thus far, winning both of its games in this tournament by double digits. On the other end, Northern Iowa has rattled off 3 wins in as many days to advance to this game, including wins over Illinois State and Bradley. The Panthers have been no stranger to success in “Arch Madness”, and while I do lean toward backing Northern Iowa as the side in this one, I have more conviction with targeting the total on Sunday.

Historically, this tournament has been one that features plenty of low-scoring contests, particularly in the title game. In fact, we just saw Drake knock off Bradley in a championship game that featured just 111 total points a season ago. While I don’t expect this game to be as low-scoring as last year’s installment, we should still see a game dictated by both defenses on Sunday. Northern Iowa is a top 25 defense in the nation per KenPom and BartTorvik, and the Panthers are especially elite at cleaning the glass (ranked 20th in defensive rebounding percentage) and defending the arc (3rd in 3-point percentage allowed). On the other side, UIC boasts a strong defense of its own, as the Flames are excellent on the glass and adept at forcing turnovers. Lastly, both teams play at an extremely slow pace, with Northern Iowa sitting at 364th in adjusted tempo and UIC checking in at 235th in that same metric. We should see a slow, grind-it-out affair in St. Louis on Sunday.

UIC vs Northern Iowa prediction: Under 125.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 124.5

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The Illinois Fighting Illini will travel to College Park on Sunday afternoon for a Big Ten Conference matchup against the Maryland Terrapins. It is the last day of the college basketball regular season and seeding for the high-major conference tournaments next weekend will officially be set. Maryland is slated to be the #16 or #17 seed in the league tournament, while Illinois will likely be the #4 seed with a win unless Iowa beats Nebraska to bring it up to the #3 seed. Maryland has endured a rough season under first-year head coach Buzz Williams, and a win here would bring great momentum needed into the postseason. Illinois is a large favorite in this one, but my best bet of the game is the under.

Both teams love to play at an extremely slow pace and I do not expect there to be enough possessions to carry the total over 146.5 points. The Illini boast one of the best offenses in the country, but they play so slowly that it doesn’t matter. Since February 1, both Illinois and Maryland are ranked in the 300s in adjusted tempo at Bart Torvik. Let’s roll with the under in this one.

Illinois vs Maryland prediction: Under 146.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 145.

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The WCC Tournament keeps on rolling along on Sunday, and this matchup between Pacific and Santa Clara is arguably the most important contest of the quarterfinal round. After all, the Broncos are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble and after a Saturday in which not a single bubble team did anything to improve their stock, Santa Clara has a massive opportunity to make a statement on a national stage and take another step toward solidifying its tournament resume. The Broncos have not lost to any team in WCC play outside of Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, and this matchup shouldn’t be one that gives them much trouble. With that in mind, while Pacific is coming off a solid victory over Seattle and has generally played above expectations this season, I can only look toward backing Santa Clara in a situation where it should win by margin.

A common refrain you’ll hear during conference tournament time is “it’s hard to beat a team 3 times”. However, the historical data has shown that this line of thinking is incorrect more often than not. In this particular instance, we’ve seen Santa Clara dominate Pacific over the first 2 meetings — winning each game by at least 15 points — and that should continue on Sunday. The Broncos offense is among the best at the mid-major level, as Santa Clara ranks 23rd in adjusted efficiency (BartTorvik) while tallying 80 or more points in 8 of its last 10 games played. Herb Sendek’s group is extremely efficient around the rim and also does a great job of attacking the offensive glass (19th in offensive rebounding rate). On the other side of the ball, the Broncos defense is excellent at forcing turnovers, which happens to be a major issue for a Pacific offense that ranks 349th in turnover percentage. The Tigers also really struggle at getting to the free-throw line, so manufacturing points could be a little more difficult to come by for an offense that is 151st in adjusted efficiency on the season. I’ll lay the points with the considerably better side on Sunday.

Pacific vs Santa Clara prediction: Santa Clara -9 available at time of publishing. Playable to Santa Clara -10.

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