College Basketball Picks

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It’s the American East final as the #2 seed Vermont Catamounts get ready to take on #1 UMBC Retrievers. These 2 teams met twice during the regular season, with the Catamounts winning one and the Retrievers winning the other. Heading into this matchup, we can expect a defensive battle. During the regular season, the Catamounts ranked second in the conference by giving up 68.4 points per game; the Retrievers ranked first, allowing 67.3 ppg. Offensively, UMBC has the slight edge at 76.3 points per game compared to Vermont’s 73.8. 

UMBC hasn’t lost a game since January 29, and that lone defeat came against Vermont. In that matchup the Catamounts shot 41% from the floor, and a big reason for their win was holding UMBC to just 33% shooting. These 2 teams are fairly even on paper, but even though Vermont has a slight edge in depth, this Retrievers team is very talented. Gus Yalden is the Catamounts’ best player, but he has struggled in tournament play. If Vermont wants to keep this game close, Yalden has to find his groove — but that won’t be easy when you have Jose Roberto Tanchyn protecting the paint and controlling the glass. UMBC has a marginal rebounding advantage in this matchup, but it also has the edge on both ends of the floor. The Retrievers just dominated UMass Lowell 91-69, shooting 54.1%. Vermont only put up 63 points against NJ Tech, shooting 41.8. This Retrievers team is playing significantly better than the Catamounts, so look for them to find their groove early offensively while shutting down the Vermont and punching a ticket to the Big Dance.

Vermont vs UMBC prediction: UMBC -3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Vanderbilt Commodores and the Florida Gators will meet in Nashville on Saturday for the semifinals of SEC Tournament. Vanderbilt is coming off a nice win against in-state rival Tennessee and should have a nice home crowd in this one, too. The Commodores are enjoying a historic season, but they have a tough task against the Gators. Florida has won 12 straight games and is playing better than any team in the country. I am going to ride the hot hand and back Florida to cover the spread.

The Gators should dominate the paint. I expect them to win the rebound battle and impose their will on the Commodores. According to KenPom, Florida is ranked #2 nationally in offensive rebound percentage; Vanderbilt’s defense is ranked #210. Florida is the much bigger team and is ranked #12 in average height; Vanderbilt is ranked #208. Florida’s big men should be too much for Vanderbilt here, so let’s roll with the favorites to cover. The Gators are quite simply one of the best teams in the nation.

Vanderbilt vs Florida prediction: Florida -8 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The No. 5 seed Charlotte 49ers dispatched the No. 4 seed UAB Blazers in their home city, ruining the possibility of all four of the top seeds facing off over the weekend. Now, Charlotte gets to shoot its shot against the top seed South Florida. Charlotte won 83-78 as a 5.5-point underdog against UAB, and it is 2-0 straight up and against the spread (ATS) in this tournament, while going 6-2 ATS in the previous eight outings. Of course, one of those two non-covers came in the regular-season finale at Yuengling Center in Tampa, an 83-60 loss to South Florida on last Sunday. Charlotte had lost the final three regular-season games, while going 2-7 SU from Feb. 4-March 8, so not many saw a Cinderella run in the conference tournament coming.

USF earned the top seed in the American, and it has won nine in a row since Feb. 4, while covering four of the past five outings, and six of the previous eight. The Under is 7-1 in the past eight outings, in case you’re looking for a same-game parlay (SGP) opportunity. Based on USF’s 23-point romp in the regular-season finale it would be easy to lay the big points with the Bulls. But, that’s a lot of points in a conference semifinal, and the 49ers are playing with renewed confidence.

Charlotte +14.5 (-115) at time of publishing. Playable to +13.5.

The Purdue Boilermakers look to make the Big Ten Final, but the UCLA Bruins stand in the way. The Bruins upended the Michigan State Spartans on Friday night, seemingly paving the way for Purdue to get to Sunday’s final. UCLA stunned Sparty 88-84 as a 5.5-point underdog as the Over (141.5) cashed, as Donovan Dent went for 23 points, 12 assists and four steals with three triples, and Trent Perry chipped in with 22 points. UCLA has covered four in a row, and six of the past seven, and Mick Cronin’s team is arguably playing its best basketball of the season.

The Boilermakers suffered a 69-67 loss to the Bruins at Pauley Pavilion on Jan. 20, as UCLA won outright as a 5.5-point underdog as the Under (147.5) cashed. Purdue showed Nebraska the door on Friday, 74-58, and it has won both of its Big Ten Tournament games by an average margin of victory of 14.5 points per game. That’s a stark contrast from how the Boilermakers finished the regular season, losing three of the final four games, while going 0-4 against the spread (ATS). Purdue is resurgent now that the postseason is underway, but it lost to UCLA in the regular season, and the Bruins have a ton of confidence after ousting Sparty.

UCLA +7.5 (-115) at time of publishing. Playable to +6.5.

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It’s far from the biggest game on Saturday’s loaded college hoops slate, but arguably the best situational spot on the board comes in the AAC tournament, where we’ll see the Tulsa Golden Hurricane take on the Wichita State Shockers in the second game of the semifinal round. South Florida is the clear top team in this league, but Wichita State has been a pleasant surprise, finishing with a 13-5 record in the American and closing the season on a 6-game winning streak to secure the #2 seed in this tournament. The Shockers have beaten this Tulsa team recently, and they even have a win over South Florida on the road back in January, one of only 2 games that the Bulls have lost at home all season. On the other side, while Tulsa is in the midst of an excellent 25-6 season, the Golden Hurricane are operating at a significant disadvantage in this game, and it stems from a game they just played.

While Wichita State had a bye to the semifinals in this tournament, Tulsa played its first game against North Texas on Friday, and it resulted in a triple overtime thriller with plenty of back-and-forth action. These 3 extra periods resulted in the key players on the Golden Hurricane logging major minutes, with multiple starters even clearing 50 minutes played in what was a slugfest from start to finish. Now, Tulsa will have to play a fresh and rested Shockers team less than 24 hours after winning such an emotionally and physically taxing game. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be shocking if this Tulsa team ran out of gas at some point in the second half, especially since the Golden Hurricane have a real challenge on their hands against one of the better defenses in this conference. These teams have been basically identical over the last month, so I’ll back the Shockers in as good of a situational spot as we’ll see this weekend.

Tulsa vs Wichita State prediction: Wichita State ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

The Toledo Rockets took care of business on Friday against No. 8 seed UMass, who dumped previous unbeaten No. 1 seed Miami-Ohio in the first round. The Rockets are looking for their 20th victory of the season, although it needs to win the MAC for any chance at an NCAA Tournament shot. It cooled off UMass 77-67 on Friday as a 2.5-point favorite, and it is now 4-1 ATS in the past five games. Toledo’s offense has rolled up at least 77 points in both MAC Tournament games, and six of the past seven outings since Feb. 24. Toledo played Akron just once during the regular season, falling 91-81 on the home floor of the Zips, although the Rockets covered as a 12.5-point underdog. In fact, Akron has won four in a row in the series, while covering two of the past three meetings.

Akron was considered the MAC Tournament favorites, even before Miami was dispatched. It hasn’t been sharp, topping Buffalo just 73-70 in the first round as a 12.5-point favorite, while beating rival Kent State 75-68 as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. Still, Akron has won nine in a row, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five games. Based on Akron’s 10-point win in the only meeting this season, and the fact it has been on a win streak, let’s lay the points.

Akron -7 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -8.

We get a pair of 20-13 teams meeting each other at Propst Arena in Huntsville, Alabama for the Conference USA Tournament final with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line. It’s the No. 6 seed Owls facing the No. 4 seed Bulldogs, as the C-USA bracket has been a series of minefields. These teams met twice in the regular season, with the home team winning each battle, so there isn’t much to glean from that. Louisiana Tech did cover each of the meetings, including a 58-55 win in Kennesaw as a 6.5-point underdog on Feb. 21 in the most recent meeting. Kennesaw State has won three of the past four meetings outright.

Kennesaw State surprised the No. 2 seed Sam Houston on Friday, 79-73, as a 1.5-point underdog, and it won against Western Kentucky in the first tournament game on Thursday, 96-87, also as a 1.5-point underdog. That’s a stark contrast from how the Owls finished the season, as they were 3-10 ATS in the final 13 games of the regular season. Louisiana Tech has also won a pair of tournament games outright as a 1.5-point underdog, topping Middle Tennessee 80-69, and Missouri State 69-66. Unlikely Kennesaw, though, the Bulldogs have covered four in a row, and seven of the past eight games, and 13 of the past 17 games, including the two covers against the Owls.

Louisiana Tech ML (+101) at time of publishing. Playable to -110.