College Basketball Picks

This matchup between blue bloods in the East Region is the highlight of Sunday’s Elite 8 action, as the UConn Huskies will take on the Duke Blue Devils. The Huskies struggled down the stretch to close the regular season, but UConn has raised their level in March, as they typically have under Danny Hurley in recent seasons. To his credit, Hurley might be the best postseason coach in the sport at the moment, and he is now 16-1 against the spread over his last 17 NCAA Tournament games. Furthermore, the Huskies are in much better shape than Duke heading into this game, as it took an all-out effort from the Blue Devils to rally from a double-digit deficit in the second half to knock off St. John’s on Friday. Duke is undoubtedly an extremely talented team, but it remains to be seen if we’ll see another heroic effort from Caleb Foster just 48 hours after logging significant minutes while playing with an injured foot. Foster is the engine of this team on both sides of the floor, so anything less than a solid effort from him would spell trouble for Duke.

UConn has a blend of experienced veterans (Alex Karaban, Taris Reed Jr.) and younger players, and this mixture has proven to be very effective through its first 3 games played in this tournament. In fact, while the Huskies have played well of late, you could certainly argue that they’re still due for some positive shooting regression from beyond the arc — especially against a Duke team that just allowed plenty of 3-point looks against St. John’s. UConn has also been excellent on the glass in this tournament, which could go a long way to staying close against a Duke team that boasts an elite first-shot defense. If the Huskies are able to generate second-chance looks and impose their will in the paint, they are certainly capable of keeping this one close down the stretch.

There’s also the matter of UConn’s offense being incredibly difficult to prepare for on a short turnaround, which is certainly a major factor as to why Hurley is such an effective NCAA Tournament coach. It’s a massive credit to this coaching staff that teams consistently fall behind against UConn, and we saw that on Friday as Michigan State trailed by as many as 19 in the first half and looked totally out of sorts for the first 20 minutes. Jon Scheyer’s team has trailed in the second half in every game of this tournament, but the Duke staff has been excellent with their halftime adjustments. With that in mind, it wouldn’t shock me at all if UConn jumps out to an early lead and holds an edge at the break, before the talent of Cam Boozer and the Blue Devils’ ultimately wins out in a tight, physical battle down the stretch. I’ll be taking a plus-money shot on the 1st half money line with the Huskies in this game, but my favorite bet focuses on UConn to cover the full-game spread.

UConn vs Duke prediction: UConn +5.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to UConn +5

It’s an Elite Eight showdown between the #6 seed Tennessee Volunteers and the #1 seed Michigan Wolverines. Looking back at Tennessee’s last 3 games, their defense has been impressive. They held a high-powered Miami (OH) offense to just 35.2% shooting from the floor, Virginia to 39.1% and Iowa State to 38.9%. While some may argue the Cyclones didn’t have Joshua Jefferson, I don’t think his presence would’ve changed that margin significantly. Michigan, however, has the size to match Tennessee in the paint and features major frontcourt contributors in Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson Jr. That trio will present challenges, but Tennessee has its own interior presence with Nate Ament, Felix Okpara, and J.P. Estrella, who can generate offense and compete physically inside. 

According to KenPom, Tennessee ranks 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency (94.1) and 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency (121.9). For the Wolverines, they rank 1st in defense (89.8) and 5th in offense (127.9). Tennessee’s defensive identity is built around pressure and disruption, and that presents a key challenge for a Michigan team that has struggled with ball security, ranking 205th nationally in turnovers per game at 11.7. The Volunteers will look to speed up possessions against the Wolverines, force rushed decisions, and turn those mistakes into transition opportunities. On the glass, Tennessee also holds a slight edge, averaging 45.6 rebounds per game compared to Michigan’s 43.3. Controlling the offensive boards will be critical for Michigan if they want to limit second-change opportunities for the Volunteers.

While Michigan holds the statistical edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency, Tennessee’s physicality and ability to disrupt rhythm makes this a difficult matchup. The Volunteers may not play at the same tempo as Alabama or feature the same explosive scoring depth, but their defensive pressure and rebounding are more than capable of keeping this game tight into the final minutes. 

Tennessee vs Michigan prediction: Tennessee Volunteers +7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.