College Basketball Picks

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There is probably no hotter ticket in the country than the Duke Blue Devils, right now. The Blue Devils by default are a team that has a Yankees-like mystique about them and that almost certainly translates to paying a premium to back them on most nights. After knocking off top-ranked Michigan, their stock has reached new heights. This makes the Blue Devils a great fade because they are prone to be overvalued on most occasions. But when we factor in the spot, we have to really like that proposition.

NC State is a known threat in the Lenovo Center to all that dare enter, you can ask North Carolina about that one for example, who was summarily dismantled by State in February. The Pack nearly upset Kansas in Raleigh earlier this season, where overtime was required and the differential ended being a mere point. NC State has also beaten Clemson outright in January. The Tigers just upset a ranked Louisville team. So the point is, the Red and White can knock off premium opposition. So what does NC State have to do to get some respect here? Beat Duke maybe? Regardless, we are getting a competent underdog taking back enhanced points in their own den. That is value in itself. Whether the bet cashes or not, the Wolfpack are the right play here.

Duke vs NC State prediction: NC State +9.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.

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The final week of the college basketball regular season tips off on Monday with a massive marquee game on the schedule between the Iowa State Cyclones and Arizona Wildcats. These teams are entering this game following completely different results, as the Cyclones were routed at home by Texas Tech, despite being significant favorites heading into that game. As for the hosts, Arizona exacted a bit of revenge against Kansas, using a dominant second-half to cruise to a 23-point victory. Now, having just won a couple of emotional games against Houston and Kansas, and with the Big 12 regular season title essentially locked up with 2 games to play, the Wildcats could come out a bit flat in this one. With that in mind, despite a couple of shaky performances in recent weeks, I’ll be backing TJ Otzelberger’s team to keep this game within the number. 

Arizona is an elite team on both sides of the ball, and the Wildcats are certainly capable of winning any game at home by double digits. However, they haven’t been quite invincible at the McKale Center this season, as we saw in a loss to Texas Tech a few weeks ago. The recipe to knock off Arizona is one that centers around holding your own on the glass, forcing turnovers and making outside shots. It just so happens that Iowa State is one of the best teams in the nation at forcing turnovers on defense, and the Cyclones are also ranked 8th nationally in 3-point percentage (Bart Torvik), thanks to the sharpshooting prowess of Milan Momcilovic and freshman Jamarion Batemon off the bench. The Cyclones are also coming off an extremely rare low-energy performance at home, in which they clearly didn’t defend to their standard and also shot poorly from both inside and beyond the arc. I would expect a strong gameplan from this coaching staff and a much more spirited effort from this proud program in a spot where few are expecting them to hang with one of the elite teams in the nation. 

Considering that Iowa State is coming off one of its worst performances of the season and should be due for a considerable bit of shooting regression in this spot, it’s reasonable to expect that the Cyclones should play to their high standard against an Arizona team that is primed for a bit of a letdown following a couple of emotional victories over the last 10 days. All things considered, I’ll take the points in a game that should be a hard-fought battle until the buzzer sounds. 

Iowa State vs Arizona prediction: Iowa State +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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