College Basketball Picks

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The Missouri Valley Conference is one of the best mid-major tournaments on the Championship Week calendar every year, and this season’s installment has been no exception. Top-seeded Belmont was upset in the quarterfinal round, which has led to a couple of the lower seeds playing for an NCAA Tournament berth on Sunday. On one side, UIC has dispatched of both opponents its played thus far, winning both of its games in this tournament by double digits. On the other end, Northern Iowa has rattled off 3 wins in as many days to advance to this game, including wins over Illinois State and Bradley. The Panthers have been no stranger to success in “Arch Madness”, and while I do lean toward backing Northern Iowa as the side in this one, I have more conviction with targeting the total on Sunday.

Historically, this tournament has been one that features plenty of low-scoring contests, particularly in the title game. In fact, we just saw Drake knock off Bradley in a championship game that featured just 111 total points a season ago. While I don’t expect this game to be as low-scoring as last year’s installment, we should still see a game dictated by both defenses on Sunday. Northern Iowa is a top 25 defense in the nation per KenPom and BartTorvik, and the Panthers are especially elite at cleaning the glass (ranked 20th in defensive rebounding percentage) and defending the arc (3rd in 3-point percentage allowed). On the other side, UIC boasts a strong defense of its own, as the Flames are excellent on the glass and adept at forcing turnovers. Lastly, both teams play at an extremely slow pace, with Northern Iowa sitting at 364th in adjusted tempo and UIC checking in at 235th in that same metric. We should see a slow, grind-it-out affair in St. Louis on Sunday.

UIC vs Northern Iowa prediction: Under 125.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 124.5

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The Queens Royals and the Central Arkansas Bears will meet on Sunday in the Atlantic Sun Championship game. A spot in the NCAA Tournament will be on the line in Jacksonville, and Central Arkansas is the favorite to cut down the nets. They won the regular season crown and are slight favorites to beat Queens here. The Bears are expected to win, but my best bet of the game is the over.

The total is currently set for 155.5 points, and I like the over because both teams have efficient offenses and play at a fast pace. Queens ranks #65 nationally in adjusted tempo and #31 in average offensive possession length, according to KenPom. Furthermore, the Royals have one of the worst defenses in the country, providing an opportunity for a lot of points to be scored. Central Arkansas ranks #140 in adjusted tempo, so it should be a fast-paced game with no shortage of points. Take the over here.

Queens vs Central Arkansas prediction: Over 155.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 156.

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The Illinois Fighting Illini will travel to College Park on Sunday afternoon for a Big Ten Conference matchup against the Maryland Terrapins. It is the last day of the college basketball regular season and seeding for the high-major conference tournaments next weekend will officially be set. Maryland is slated to be the #16 or #17 seed in the league tournament, while Illinois will likely be the #4 seed with a win unless Iowa beats Nebraska to bring it up to the #3 seed. Maryland has endured a rough season under first-year head coach Buzz Williams, and a win here would bring great momentum needed into the postseason. Illinois is a large favorite in this one, but my best bet of the game is the under.

Both teams love to play at an extremely slow pace and I do not expect there to be enough possessions to carry the total over 146.5 points. The Illini boast one of the best offenses in the country, but they play so slowly that it doesn’t matter. Since February 1, both Illinois and Maryland are ranked in the 300s in adjusted tempo at Bart Torvik. Let’s roll with the under in this one.

Illinois vs Maryland prediction: Under 146.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 145.

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Western Carolina enters the semifinals after securing a win over Mercer yesterday. The Catamounts dominated the glass in that matchup, outrebounding Mercer 53-29 — including 25 offensive rebounds — which led to plenty of second-chance opportunities for the Catamounts. East Tennessee State also advanced with a win over The Citadel, shooting an impressive 56.4% from the floor. However, their defense struggled, allowing the Bulldogs to shoot 50%, and they’ll need to tighten that up if they want to beat a tough Western Carolina team today. 

These teams have already met twice this season, with Western Carolina winning both matchups — the first by 4 points and the second by 2. In both games, the Catamounts controlled the boards and outshot East Tennessee State. Western Carolina may have had an up-and-down regular season, but they are entering the Southern Conference Tournament playing some of their best basketball, riding a 7-game winning streak. During that stretch, they are averaging 83 points per game while allowing just 68.3. East Tennessee State, on the other hand, has dropped 3 of its last 6 games and has yet to solve Western Carolina this season. These teams have played tight games throughout the year, but if the Catamounts continue to dominate the glass and capitalize on second-chance opportunities, they should be able to keep this game close. 

Western Carolina vs East Tennessee State prediction: Western Carolina Catamounts +3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It’s the final day of the college basketball season, and we will be treated to quite an impactful in-state rivalry matchup between the Michigan State Spartans and the Michigan Wolverines at 4:30 PM ET on CBS. When these teams met on January 30, Michigan controlled the game from the tip, jumping out to an 18-7 lead in the first 10 minutes and holding a 42-26 advantage at halftime. Sparty made some noise in the first 15 minutes of the second half, but Michigan controlled the last 5 minutes and ultimately won the game 83-71. Yaxel Lendeborg was the star of the show for the maize and blue, dropping 26 points with 12 rebounds, while Jeremy Fears was the reason the Spartans even had a chance – scoring 31 points with 5 rebounds, 7 assists and 4 steals. 

In that game, the total closed right about where it currently is now around 150, and while it went over, it wasn’t exactly a high-scoring affair. In fact, I’d argue the final score is a bit misleading from a scoring perspective. There were just 68 points on the board at halftime, and with 5 minutes to play, Michigan led 62-59 – which means there were 33 combined points scored over that last 5 minutes. Going one step further, the Wolverines were up 75-65 with just a minute to play, as the teams combined for 14 points over that final 60 seconds. Michigan State would not go away quietly, fouling until the end while even being called for a technical foul with about 30 seconds left. 

The spread in that contest closed Michigan -2.5, so oddsmakers expected a close game. Sparty was also at home, so it makes sense they fouled right until the end. This time around, Michigan is laying almost double digits at home. If oddsmakers are right about Michigan winning this game by margin, we shouldn’t have late-game fouling shenanigans, which should help keep this game under the total. After all, these are 2 of the 10 most efficient defenses in the country per KenPom, while three-point shooting consistency comes and goes for both squads. In a heated rivalry rematch on Sunday, I’m expecting this one to be another slog, and for the late-game theatrics to be kinder to under bettors.

Michigan State vs Michigan prediction: Under 150.5 (-10) at the time of publishing. Playable to 149. 

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The Iowa Hawkeyes travel to Lincoln to face the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a Big Ten matchup that could be tighter than the spread suggests. Nebraska enters the game averaging 77.6 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field and 35.1% from three-point range. The Cornhuskers rely heavily on perimeter scoring and ball movement, knocking down 9.4 threes per game and generating consistent offense in half-court sets. At Pinnacle Bank Arena, Nebraska has been particularly effective thanks to its spacing and pace, which allow the Huskers to create scoring runs that can shift momentum quickly. Defensively, however, Nebraska has shown some vulnerability, allowing 73.8 points per game and occasionally struggling to contain efficient shooting teams that can control tempo and limit transition opportunities.

Iowa enters with one of the more efficient offensive profiles in the conference, averaging 80.2 points per game while shooting 48.3% from the field and 37.4% from deep. The Hawkeyes also move the ball effectively, averaging 17.1 assists per game, which helps generate high-percentage looks in the half court. Defensively, Iowa has improved down the stretch and currently allows 72.1 points per game, showing better discipline in slowing opponents and forcing contested shots late in the shot clock. When the Hawkeyes dictate tempo and limit turnovers, their offensive efficiency allows them to keep pace with nearly any Big Ten opponent.

Against a Nebraska team that prefers to create offense through perimeter rhythm and transition opportunities, Iowa’s ability to control possessions and execute in half court situations could keep the game close throughout. If the Hawkeyes maintain their shooting efficiency and limit second chance opportunities for Nebraska, this matchup projects as a competitive battle deep into the second half.

Iowa vs Nebraska Prediction: Iowa Hawkeyes +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.

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The Southern Conference Tournament has reached the semifinals, as the UNC Greensboro Spartans battle the Furman Paladins for a chance to play for a conference title and automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. To get here, UNCG first defeated VMI 84-70 on Friday, and then turned around and beat Wofford on Saturday 75-72 despite forcing just 2 Wofford turnovers and trailing by 9 with just under 13 minutes to play. As for Furman, the Paladins have played only one tournament game thus far, which was an 86-81 win over Samford on Saturday. They knocked down 52% of their threes and 81% of their free throws, while turning Samford over 11 times and winning the rebounding battle.

These teams met twice during the regular season and they split the results, each winning on the road. In the first meeting, Furman smacked UNCG 89-66 despite not having 3 key contributors in Asa Thomas, Cooper Bowser and Eddrin Bronson. Like they did yesterday, the Paladins made 50% of their threes in that game – thanks to Tom House and Alex Wilkins combining to go 11-of-17– while the Spartans were just 7-of-26 from deep. In the return game in Greensboro, the Spartans returned the favor 67-64, leading by as many as 10 in the second half and knocking down almost 53% of their shots beyond the arc while holding the Paladins to 26%.

As you would probably guess, three-point variance is going to play a pivotal role in this SoCon semifinal. Furman loves to jack shots from distance, but despite their outburst yesterday and in the first meeting with UNCG, the Paladins aren’t exactly an efficient three-point shooting team. Fewer than 33% of their deep balls go through the net, which can make for a lot of bricks on a bad shooting night given their top-40 three-point rate. The Spartans aren’t exactly going to stop Furman from shooting them either, as they are 349th in three-point rate allowed and 353rd in opposing three-point percentage. On the other end, UNCG shoots threes about 7% less than Furman in conference play, but the Spartans are more consistent in the shot-making department – knocking down 38% of those perimeter attempts. 

With a line north of 2 possessions, oddsmakers seem to expect Furman to have another solid shooting performance on Sunday, but I’m not quite there considering the Paladins haven’t shown much shooting consistency of late. Case in point, Furman knocked down 11 threes yesterday after knocking down 11 in their 2 previous games combined. It makes sense, as they have just 1 reliable volume shooter in Thomas, who knocks down around 40% of his threes. No one else on the team with more than 70 perimeter attempts is over 35%. Compare that to UNCG, who has connected on at least 9 threes in 4 of their last 5 games and 8 of their last 10. The Spartans have 2 shooters above 38% with another around 35%. You can see why I’m pessimistic about Furman’s shooting here. 

Also of concern is Furman’s turnover rate, as the Paladins are 252nd nationally and worst in the conference in that regard. They don’t get to the free-throw line much either, which could further hinder their scoring if they aren’t making their shots. If Furman puts up stellar shooting performances in back-to-back games, so be it, but I can’t justify this price tag given their inconsistencies to this point. I may even sprinkle on the money line given UNCG coach Mike Jones’ historical success against Furman’s Bob Richey.

UNC Greensboro vs Furman prediction: UNC Greensboro Spartans +7.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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The West Coast Conference Tournament continues on Sunday with a quarterfinals matchup between the San Francisco Dons and Oregon State Beavers. The Beavers have not played yet this week due to the modern format of this bracket that protects the conference’s higher seeds, but the Dons were in action on Saturday when they cruised to an 82-65 win over Portland while benefitting from a +0.25 point-per-possession advantage.

These teams played twice during the regular season, and Oregon State took the win both times. In the first meeting on December 30, San Francisco’s offense failed to show up in Corvallis, as the Dons scored fewer than 1 point per possession and shot just 19% from the perimeter in a 70-62 defeat. In the return game at home, the Dons were basically just as bad offensively in that game, but they were exceptionally poor defensively without their most efficient defender in Tyrone Riley. In his absence, the Dons surrendered 90 points, as the Beavers scored almost 1.5 points per possession and connected on 12-of-20 threes. 

I don’t always subscribe to it, but the old adage is “it’s tough to beat a team 3 times in one season.” Oddsmakers seem to buy into that notion for this matchup considering the Dons are currently -3.5 favorites despite an 0-2 mark and a -35 point differential against the Beavers this year. This is typically a strong indicator that the favorite is the play, but I’m having a tough time getting there. The Dons have just 3 wins February 1, and 2 of those victories came against Portland and San Diego – who went 11-24 combined in conference. The 3rd came against Pacific in the regular season finale, who was off 3 straight games against Saint Mary’s, at Washington State and at Gonzaga. 

The Dons should look better this time around with Riley back in action, but it’s not enough to prevent me from taking a position on Oregon State – especially considering how well Dez White and Josiah Lake led the offense in both prior meetings. For what it’s worth, the Beavers are top-100 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency since February 1, while San Francisco is outside the top 265 in defensive efficiency and 301st in effective field goal percentage allowed in that span. The Dons may find their way to a victory, but by more than a possession? I don’t see it.

San Francisco vs Oregon State prediction: Oregon State Beavers +3.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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The #1 seed North Dakota State Bison take on their in-state rivals, the #3 seed North Dakota Fighting Hawks at the Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota on Sunday, with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line. NoDak State has rolled through the tourney, winning 76-65 against Oral Roberts in the quarterfinals before topping Omaha 74-50 in the semis. For #3 UND, it bested Denver 83-67 in the QFs while sneaking by St. Thomas 67-66 as an 11.5-point underdog in the SFs.

The Under has cashed in each of the 2 tournament games for North Dakota, while North Dakota State has also cashed low in both games in Sioux Falls so far. The Under is also 6-3 in the past 9 meetings in this series, although NoDak State pounded UND 96-63 in the most recent meeting on Feb. 28 at home as an 11.5-point favorite. Since 2011, the top seed has ended up running the table 9 times in 15 Summit League Tournaments. Let’s back North Dakota State to get the job done again, as the #1 seed advances in the Summit.

North Dakota vs North Dakota State prediction: North Dakota State -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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The WCC Tournament keeps on rolling along on Sunday, and this matchup between Pacific and Santa Clara is arguably the most important contest of the quarterfinal round. After all, the Broncos are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble and after a Saturday in which not a single bubble team did anything to improve their stock, Santa Clara has a massive opportunity to make a statement on a national stage and take another step toward solidifying its tournament resume. The Broncos have not lost to any team in WCC play outside of Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, and this matchup shouldn’t be one that gives them much trouble. With that in mind, while Pacific is coming off a solid victory over Seattle and has generally played above expectations this season, I can only look toward backing Santa Clara in a situation where it should win by margin.

A common refrain you’ll hear during conference tournament time is “it’s hard to beat a team 3 times”. However, the historical data has shown that this line of thinking is incorrect more often than not. In this particular instance, we’ve seen Santa Clara dominate Pacific over the first 2 meetings — winning each game by at least 15 points — and that should continue on Sunday. The Broncos offense is among the best at the mid-major level, as Santa Clara ranks 23rd in adjusted efficiency (BartTorvik) while tallying 80 or more points in 8 of its last 10 games played. Herb Sendek’s group is extremely efficient around the rim and also does a great job of attacking the offensive glass (19th in offensive rebounding rate). On the other side of the ball, the Broncos defense is excellent at forcing turnovers, which happens to be a major issue for a Pacific offense that ranks 349th in turnover percentage. The Tigers also really struggle at getting to the free-throw line, so manufacturing points could be a little more difficult to come by for an offense that is 151st in adjusted efficiency on the season. I’ll lay the points with the considerably better side on Sunday.

Pacific vs Santa Clara prediction: Santa Clara -9 available at time of publishing. Playable to Santa Clara -10.

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