College Basketball Picks

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The Seton Hall Pirates and the St. John’s Red Storm will meet on Friday inside Madison Square Garden in the Big East semifinals. Seton Hall beat Creighton in its opening game and will need to win on Friday to keep its NCAA Tournament dreams alive. The Pirates likely cannot make the Big Dance without winning the conference tournament, but it will be a tough task. St. John’s is a 7.5-point favorite, but my best bet of the game is the under.

I like the under in this one despite the low total because neither team’s offense is very efficient. Seton Hall has one of the least efficient offenses in Power 5 college basketball and is averaging just 70.4 points per game. According to KenPom, the Pirates are ranked #151 in adjusted offensive efficiency and in the 300s in effective field-goal percentage, 2-point percentage and 3-point percentage. I do not expect either team to make many threes in this one, so the total will have a hard time going over the number. Since February 1, both teams are ranked in the 300s nationally in 3-point percentage. Seton Hall will need to slow this game down if it wants a chance at winning. Let’s roll with the under.

Seton Hall vs St. John’s prediction: Under 132.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 132.

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Sorry Oklahoma, but Ole Miss has emerged as the SEC’s Cinderella in Nashville following consecutive upset wins over Texas and Georgia as the #15 seed in the conference tournament. Chris Beard is a great coach, so it’s not exactly surprising to see one of his teams surging in postseason play. However, if I’m being honest, it’s mildly surprising to see this team in the quarterfinals. It’s not that Texas and Georgia are some sort of college basketball titans, because they aren’t, but the Rebels were horrible for the final month and a half of the season — winning just 1 game from January 20th through March 7. They even lost to LSU, Mississippi State and South Carolina along the way, all 3 of whom lost their opening games this week and are now done for the season unless one of the ancillary postseason tournaments comes calling. 

Nate Oats is 2-1 SU against Chris Beard’s Rebels over the last 3 years, including a 93-74 win in Oxford earlier this year. In that game, the Tide only connected on 9 2-point attempts, as they hoisted up 45 perimeter shots and knocked down 17 of them en route to 1.26 points per possession. They also won the rebounding battle, turned the ball over just 6 times and converted 24 of their 26 free-throw attempts. 

Ole Miss’ path to success involves slowing this game down and benefiting from some positive three-point variance, but that’s easier said than done. Alabama loves to push the pace while shooting threes at the highest rate in the country. Because of that, if they’re hitting shots, they’re tough to beat. If not, they can lose to anyone. That said, are we sure Ole Miss will have the legs for this type of game? I’m not. 

If Bama is on, it’s going to be tough for Ole Miss to match their output, as the Rebels are 14th in the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and 15th in effective field-goal percentage. Moreover, they don’t create easy chances for themselves given they are also the SEC’s 2nd-worst in offensive rebounding rate and free throw rate. Defensively, the Rebels are the league’s worst in free-throw rate allowed and 3-point rate allowed, which is music to Alabama’s ears. We all like Cinderella stories in March, but on paper, it’s going to be a tough test for Ole Miss on Friday night. 

Ole Miss vs Alabama prediction: Alabama -11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -12. 

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The Big East’s #11 team Georgetown was impressive last night against Villanova, holding the Wildcats to 37.7% shooting from the floor and out-rebounded them 46-25. This Hoyas team is playing some great basketball over their last 3 games, and they’ll look to keep things rolling as they get ready to take on #2 seed UConn. The two teams met twice during the regular season. In their most recent matchup, UConn walked away with a 79-75 victory, and in the game prior, UConn won 64-62. This Georgetown team loves to play physical and force you to beat them inside, as they have 7-foot-1 Vince Iwuchukwu to defend the rim.

On the season, the Huskies look better on paper, averaging 78.6 points per game compared to the Hoyas’ 74.3. Defensively, UConn is holding opponents to 65.3 points per game compared to Georgetown’s 73.1. Both teams are evenly matched on the glass, so rebounding shouldn’t heavily favor either side. What stands out in this matchup, however, is UConn’s recent inability to consistently pull away from opponents. The Huskies narrowly defeated Georgetown in both regular-season games, and they just lost to Marquette, Creighton, and barely got by Seton Hall. Sure, UConn just dominated the #10 seed Xavier 93-68, but Georgetown is a better rebounding team and has a better defense than Xavier. While the Huskies should win this game, I expect the Hoyas to give it their all and keep this game close. 

Georgetown vs UConn prediction: Georgetown Hoyas +13.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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What does Clemson have to do to get some respect here? Duke enters this ACC Tournament matchup as the top seed, #1 ranked team in America, and favorite to win the national championship, which naturally pushes the market toward the Blue Devils. When a team with Duke’s pedigree carries that level of national attention, the point spread often reflects perception as much as matchup dynamics. That appears to be the case here.

At first glance, Clemson may not inspire confidence. The Tigers narrowly survived their quarterfinal win against North Carolina, while Duke closed the regular season by handling that same Tar Heels team convincingly. That contrast creates the impression that Clemson is walking into a mismatch. However, the Tigers possess the type of defensive profile that can compress tournament games. Clemson ranks among the better defensive teams in the country, particularly in points allowed (66.5 ppg). In postseason environments where possessions become more meaningful, strong defensive teams are the squads to hang your hat on. The key issue for Duke bettors is margin. Winning the game is one challenge; winning by double digits against a disciplined defensive opponent is another. If the Tigers successfully turn the game into a defensive battle, the margin becomes much harder to stretch. In tournament settings where defense travels well, Clemson catching double digits provides meaningful value.

Clemson vs Duke prediction: Clemson Tigers +11 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The Kansas Jayhawks and Houston Cougars meet in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament, featuring 2 of the conference’s most physical and defensively disciplined programs. Kansas advanced after a 78-73 quarterfinal victory over the TCU Horned Frogs, powered by a standout performance from freshman Darryn Peterson, who scored 24 points, grabbed 8 rebounds, and converted 13 of 16 free throws. The Jayhawks enter the semifinal with a 23-9 record, averaging 76.5 points per game while allowing 69.3. Kansas leans on its interior presence, led by Flory Bidunga, who averages 14.9 points and 9.0 rebounds per game while anchoring the paint on both ends of the floor. Earlier this season, Kansas proved it could slow Houston’s offense in a 69-56 victory, showing the type of half court defensive effort required to compete against the Cougars.

Houston enters the matchup at 27-5 with one of the most dominant defensive profiles in the nation, allowing just 62.7 points per game while averaging 77.6 offensively under head coach Kelvin Sampson. The Cougars reached the semifinal with a 73-66 win over the BYU Cougars, leaning on rebounding and second half defense to secure the result. Houston’s backcourt is led by Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp, who average 16.6 and 16.4 points per game, giving the Cougars reliable perimeter scoring to complement their defensive identity. With both teams ranking among the stronger defensive groups in the Big 12 and tournament games often slowing in pace, this semifinal projects as a physical half court battle. If Houston continues forcing difficult possessions and Kansas emphasizes interior scoring rather than pushing tempo, sustained offensive runs could be difficult to find.

Kansas vs Houston prediction: Under 136.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 135.5.

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The Oklahoma Sooners face the Arkansas Razorbacks in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament, setting up a matchup between a surging Oklahoma team and a well rested Arkansas squad. Oklahoma enters with a 19-14 record after an impressive 83-63 upset victory over the Texas A&M Aggies in the second round. The Sooners controlled that game early, building a 22-point halftime lead while dominating the glass with a 48-33 rebounding advantage. Nijel Pack led the scoring with 20 points and four three pointers, while Xzayvier Brown added 16 points and Derrion Reid delivered a 15-point, 10-rebound double-double. The victory extended Oklahoma’s momentum to six straight wins and eight victories in its last ten games, highlighting a team playing some of its best basketball late in the season. If the Sooners can continue controlling the boards and generating balanced scoring from their backcourt, they could again make things difficult for a higher seeded opponent.

Arkansas enters the quarterfinal with a 23-8 record (13-5 SEC) and the benefit of extra rest after earning a first round bye in the tournament. The Razorbacks have been one of the more explosive offenses in the conference, at times averaging over 90 points per game during stretches of the season thanks to their fast tempo and transition scoring. Arkansas also won the regular season meeting against Oklahoma, using efficient shooting and interior scoring to create separation. Freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr. provides another dynamic scoring and playmaking option, helping fuel the Razorbacks’ attack. While Oklahoma’s recent run makes the Sooners a dangerous opponent, Arkansas’ depth and pace create problems for teams forced to play on short rest in the tournament. If the Razorbacks push the tempo and take advantage of transition opportunities, their offensive firepower should gradually create separation as the game progresses.

Oklahoma vs Arkansas prediction: Arkansas -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.

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The Ohio State Buckeyes’ winning ways continued on Thursday with a 72-69 victory over Iowa. They led by as many as 16 in the second half before the Hawkeyes made it a game late with a chance to tie it at the buzzer. Ohio State has now won 4 games in a row, but the odds are against them to win a fifth on Friday — as they will meet their bitter rivals and the Big Ten’s top-seeded Michigan Wolverines. 

These teams met twice during the regular season, both double-digit wins by the Wolverines. The first meeting was in Ann Arbor in late January, and while Ohio State held a 6-point lead early in the second half, Michigan ended the game on a 40-22 run over the last 17:40. The Wolverines shot 76% from inside the arc in that one, but couldn’t get anything going from the perimeter (5-for-23) and turned the ball over 14 times. Just over 2 weeks later, they met again in Columbus, and while Michigan’s two-point efficiency dropped off, they made double the amount of threes and nearly cut their turnovers in half. Moreover, the Buckeyes never held a lead at home and they made just 20 total shots in the game. 

Ohio State’s offense is great, but the matchup with Michigan isn’t the best. It would likely take a herculean effort from three-point range to keep this game close, as the Buckeyes haven’t been able to find anything at the rim against this defense. In the first meeting, Ohio State got to the rim only 7 times, making 4 of those attempts. In the return game, the Buckeyes had more success getting to the rim — but they scored only 12 points on 18 attempts. Given those numbers, it’s no surprise Bruce Thornton’s 2 worst games in terms of offensive rating were the 2 meetings with Michigan. 

Thornton loves to attack the rim aggressively, and he is usually highly efficient on those attempts — scoring 1.31 adjusted points per possession per Hoop-Explorer. That simply hasn’t been the case against Michigan, and I don’t see what would change in the 3rd meeting on Friday. If Ohio State wakes up for 14 triples and makes this a game, I’ll tip my cap. But given Michigan’s elite defense and superior size, it could be a long day for the Buckeyes once again — although Thursday’s win over Iowa may have sealed their spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Ohio State vs Michigan prediction: Michigan -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5.

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Florida enters as the SEC’s top seed and defending national champion, carrying momentum from a strong finish to the regular season. That résumé naturally draws betting support and pushes the Gators into heavy favorite territory, but this spread is influenced as much by narrative as it is by matchup reality. Kentucky has been widely labeled one of the biggest disappointments of the season, failing to meet the expectations typically associated with the program as one of the perennial blue bloods. Because of that narrative, the Wildcats’ stock has fallen significantly in the betting market to levels that we haven’t seen in recent memory.

Ironically, that creates a rare situation where Kentucky’s brand name is no longer inflating the line. For much of the past decade, backing the Wildcats meant paying a premium attached to their reputation. In this spot, the opposite may be true. Tournament environments often reward teams capable of resetting emotionally and playing freer when expectations are reduced. Kentucky still possesses the talent and offensive capability to compete with elite teams. The Gators undoubtedly deserve favorite status, but double-digit spreads in tournament play can become fragile if the underdog matches early scoring runs. The Cats can do that. This is the buy-low opportunity on Big Blue that may not actually come again for a long time.

Kentucky vs Florida prediction: Kentucky Wildcats +11 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The Big Ten Tournament is moving into the quarterfinal round on Friday, and one of the most intriguing games on the slate comes in the form of a matchup between the Wisconsin Badgers and Illinois Fighting Illini from Chicago. Wisconsin is as hot as any team in the conference at the moment, ending the season with a flourish by dropping 97 points in a win over Purdue at Mackey Arena. The Badgers have 14 wins in their last 17 games dating back to January 6, and that stretch included victories over Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, UCLA and this same Illinois team in Champaign on February 10. With that in mind, even though it would be understandable to target Illinois to exact a bit of revenge in this spot, I can’t get there with laying nearly 3 full possessions with the Illini against an offense of Wisconsin’s calendar.

This is not a matchup that should feature much defense, and that sort of game script should play into how Wisconsin wants to attack this contest. The Badgers are a threat to knock down 15 or more threes in any game they play, and we saw them hit 16 threes and shoot over 40% from downtown in the first meeting one month ago. Illinois does a fairly good job in terms of limiting opponents inside the arc, but the Illini are ranked 255th in 3-point rate allowed on defense, so it wouldn’t shock me if the Badgers are able to attempt 40 threes in this one. That level of variance is something I generally like betting with an underdog, especially in a game where both teams are going to attempt a ton of threes and we should see plenty of possessions. Furthermore, it’s also important to mention that Illinois is dealing with a couple of key injury and/or illness questions heading into this one, including freshman phenom Keaton Wagler (back spasms) and guard Andrej Stojakovic (flu). This should be an entertaining game from start to finish, and I’ll gladly take the points with the underdog.

Wisconsin vs Illinois prediction: Wisconsin +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.