College Basketball Picks

The Oregon Ducks head to the State University of New Jersey to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in B1G action on Monday night. Neither team is off to a great start in conference play, as the Knights have opened with 3 straight losses (albeit to Michigan, Purdue, and Ohio State), while Oregon is 1-2. The Ducks have been on the east coast all weekend, which helps mitigate the travel lag, and they won at Maryland on Friday. I think Oregon is the superior team here, and although I despise backing road teams in this conference, I think Oregon -6 is the right play here.

The 8-6 Ducks have played a grueling schedule, and even their mid-major opponents have been good ones. Their record is deceptive, and they have a lot of weapons. They still grade out in the top 75 of both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they should pull away from lesser teams. Rutgers is one of those lesser teams. The Scarlet Knights are a young team, maybe the youngest in the conference, and that is going to get tough as the season grinds on. Aside from offensive rebounding, they don’t really do anything else well—they play slow, they shoot poorly, and they have very little firepower. I think they will struggle most nights in conference play, and Oregon should pull away. Give me the Ducks.

Oregon vs Rutgers Prediction: Oregon -6 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.

Following a 30-point, blowout loss at Michigan, the USC Trojans will make the short trip to East Lansing to play the Michigan State Spartans on Monday. Meanwhile, Sparty is off a loss of its own after falling on the road at Nebraska 58-56 on Friday. Both teams were similarly bad in their last outing, as the Trojans held no lead, scored just 0.79 points per possession and made just 20 of their combined 58 shot attempts from inside and outside the arc. As for MSU, the Spartans scored just 0.87 points per possession and made only 17 of their 50 combined shots against the Cornhuskers. Now, Tom Izzo’s Spartans return home to the Breslin Center, where they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games off a road loss. 

This is a big number, but I can only side with Michigan State here. The Spartans are dominant on the boards, sitting 9th in offensive rebounding rate and 2nd in offensive rebounding rate allowed, and the Trojans have really struggled to keep their opponents off the glass. For reference, they are 315th nationally in opposing offensive rebounds per game, allowing almost 11. That’s a dangerous game to play against this Michigan State squad considering the Spartans are 2nd in potential points off second-chance opportunities and 11th in second-chance conversion percentage per Haslametrics. 

Michigan State should also abuse USC’s defense in the mid range. The Trojans funnel their opponents into mid-range jump shots, and that’s exactly where the Spartans are comfortable offensively. In fact, they are top-65 in mid-range rate, while USC sits 212th in mid-range rate allowed. Look for the Spartans to find success offensively throughout this game while dominating the boards en route to a win and cover at home.

USC vs Michigan State prediction: Michigan State Spartans -10 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -11.

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Sunday afternoon takes us to the AAC as the Florida Atlantic Owls travel to face the Tulane Green Wave. Both are off to a respectable start to the season, with Tulane at 10-4 and FAU at 9-5, and both winning their conference opener. Expectations at the start of the season were for both teams to end up in the middle of the pack in this conference though, and that is probably still my expectation. Thus far though, FAU has looked like the better team, and they rank some 100 spots higher in ratings systems like KenPom and Torvik, and I am going to go with that as we take the Owls -4.5.

The problem for Tulane is that, despite their good record, they have yet to step outside of the mid-major level of competition. Moreover, they are dropping games to the better mid-major teams. Tulane’s primary warts are that they are one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, both offensively and defensively, and that they both shoot and defend the 3 poorly. That’s not going to produce sustained success. FAU is not what they were a few years ago, obviously, but they are at least middle of the pack in those places where Tulane struggles. I look for FAU to be the better team here, and I will take them to cover.

Florida Atlantic vs Tulane Prediction: FAU -4.5 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The UAB Blazers will travel to Tampa Bay on Sunday for an American Conference game against the South Florida Bulls. Both teams will look for their first conference win of the season with a victory here. UAB lost by five to Wichita State in their American opener while South Florida has yet to play a league game. The Bulls are coming into the game on a two-game winning streak, and I expect them to keep the momentum going here.

South Florida is currently -6.5 and that is my best bet of the game. I like the Bulls to cover in this one because they have been the better team over the past month. South Florida lost just one game in the month of December while UAB lost to Middle Tennessee, Troy and Wichita State last month. The Bulls are ranked 34th team in the country on BartTorvik since December 1. Since December started, they are ranked 7th in offensive rebounding percentage, 39th in offensive efficiency and 52nd in defensive efficiency. UAB is ranked outside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency since December 1, so I do not see them keeping this game within the number. Take South Florida here.

UAB vs South Florida prediction: South Florida -6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.5

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UConn will look to continue its dominance against Big East opponents as they get ready to take on Marquette on Sunday. The Huskies are 3-0 in conference play and are coming off a dominant 90-67 win over Xaiver on New Year’s Eve, shooting 53.2% from the floor. Marquette is 0-3 in conference play this season and they continue to struggle, dropping five straight games while averaging just 68 points per game in that span. The Huskies are hefty favorites in this matchup, but I don’t think they’ll have any issues covering this spread and here’s why. 

The Huskies are loaded with talent on both ends of the floor, and this could be a long afternoon for the Golden Eagles. UConn is averaging 79.3 points per game while allowing 61.5 points per game compared to Marquette who is averaging 76.6 points per game and allowing 77.4 points per game. While UConn may not be known for an explosive offense, its aggressive, physical defense has frustrated opponents, something that will likely frustrate Marquette in this matchup. Marquette has already not fared well against elite competition, suffering lopsided losses to Indiana by 23 points, Wisconsin by 20, Purdue by 20, and Creighton by 21. Outside of Purdue, this will be one of the toughest tests the Golden Eagles have faced, and it’s hard to see them finding much success offensively. Marquette shot just 36.5% from the field against Seton Hall in its last game, and that trend is unlikely to reverse against UConn’s defensive pressure. Look for the Huskies to control this game from start to finish and roll to another convincing Big East win, making UConn my best bet of the day. 

Marquette vs UConn prediction: UConn -20.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -21.5. 

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