College Basketball Picks

The Washington Huskies will travel to Champaign on Thursday night for a Big 10 Conference game against the Illinois Fighting Illini. The Fighting Illini have looked like one of the best teams in the country, riding a nine-game winning streak. They are coming off a monster win at Purdue and will look to make it ten straight with a win against Washington. The Huskies have lost three out of their last four games but are coming off a double digit win against Oregon on Sunday. It should be a great battle between two of the best freshmen in the country in Keaton Wagler and Hannes Steinbach, but my best of the game is the under.

I like the under in this game because both teams play at a relatively slow pace and their totals have been under in most of their games this season. Since Illinois last lost on December 13^th, they play at one of the slowest paces in the country. According to Bart Torvik, they are ranked #308 nationally in adjusted tempo since their last lost. Similarly, Washington is ranked #192 in adjusted tempo this season and do not shoot the ball well. They are ranked #288 in three-point percentage this season at Bart Torvik and do not get to the line at a high rate. The total has gone under in 60 percent of Illinois games this season and 63.2 percentage of Washington’s. Take the under here.

*Under 153 available at time of publishing. Playable at 152*

We have a battle at the bottom of the Big 12 standings on Wednesday between the Baylor Bears and Cincinnati Bearcats. The Bearcats just endured a rough week in Arizona, dropping lopsided games to both the Wildcats and Sun Devils. They are now 2-5 in conference play and they will have to win on Wednesday without one of their key players, McDonald’s All-American freshman Shon Abaev. Baylor, on the other hand, has been ravaged by a nasty schedule while falling to 1-6 in conference play. The Bears will need to start stealing some road games to have any shot at postseason play. This is a tough game to take on the spread, but I do like this game to be a classic Big 12 rock fight and stay under the 147.5 game total.

Baylor is a good offense with a terrible defense, while Cincinnati is a bad offense with an elite defense. This game is probably going to grind down to a low-scoring affair, and it would be a shock if it gets past 70 points per team. Baylor has faced 3 elite defenses (top 15) in conference play: Houston, Kansas and Iowa State. The Bears scored 55, 62 and 60, respectively, against those teams. Cincinnati is also a top-15 defense, and Baylor is likely to have a similar outcome. The inefficient offense of the Bearcats (203, per KenPom) should suppress points on the other end. This is likely to be a 70-66 type of game, one way or another. Give me the under.

Baylor vs Cincinnati prediction: Under 147.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 145.5.

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There are several layers working in favor of St. John’s here, and the surface numbers only tell part of the story. At first glance, the ATS records might steer bettors toward Butler — the Bulldogs sit at 12-8 against the number while St. John’s is 9-11. Pair that with a double-digit spread and it’s easy to see why taking the points looks attractive. But once you shift from season-long trends to game environment, the picture changes quickly.

Butler has struggled away from home, going just 1-4 straight up on the road. St. John’s has been a different team in Queens at 9-2 SU. That home-court edge isn’t cosmetic; the Red Storm feed off tempo, defensive pressure and crowd energy that tends to overwhelm visiting teams lacking depth. History reinforces the matchup edge: St. John’s has won 9 of the last 10 meetings and covered 8 of them, and they notably weren’t laying this kind of number in those games — a sign the market’s rating of SJU has risen. Strength of schedule is another separator. KenPom ranks St. John’s schedule 19th nationally compared to Butler’s 206th. The Red Storm are battle-tested and still own the better record. When you combine home dominance, series control and schedule strength, the larger spread looks justified. St. John’s has the profile to control this game from start to finish.

Butler vs St. John’s prediction: St. John’s -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.

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The Texas Longhorns and the Auburn Tigers will face off on Wednesday night in an SEC game. The Longhorns are fighting for their first NCAA Tournament appearance under new head coach Sean Miller, and big wins like this one will be needed to get them to that destination. They are right on the bubble for now, while Auburn has moved up significantly on the heels of 3 straight wins. Auburn is coming off an amazing road victory against Florida and could be in for another big win on Wednesday. The game should be a close one, but my best bet is the over.

Both teams’ offense has been very efficient this season, especially during conference play. Since January 1, Texas’s offense is ranked #8 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency; Auburn’s is ranked #15. Neither team has been very good at keeping its opponent off the foul line during league play, so I expect both teams to get to the line at a high rate. The Longhorns’ defense is ranked just #137 in adjusted efficiency since January 1, as well, so Auburn should have no issues scoring. Let’s roll with the over.

Texas vs Auburn prediction: Over 156.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 157.

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At first glance, DePaul checks every “public favorite” box. The Blue Demons have won 4 straight in the series, carry the better overall record and have been a far more reliable cover team at 13-7 ATS compared to Georgetown’s ugly 6-14 mark. Add in the fact that the Blue Demons are catching points and it feels like a simple click. That’s exactly the kind of setup that deserves a second look, because surface trends often mask context.

The biggest split in this matchup is venue. DePaul is just 1-4 straight up on the road, while Georgetown has been solid at home at 7-4 SU. That difference matters more than season ATS records because college teams tend to be highly environment-dependent. Travel, unfamiliar rims and hostile crowds hit teams that rely on rhythm and comfort — which fits DePaul’s profile. Schedule context also shifts perception. According to KenPom, DePaul’s non-conference strength of schedule ranks 362nd — meaning many of its wins have come against soft opposition. Georgetown, despite inconsistency, has faced stronger competition and is battle-tested in tougher spots. Put it together and the line actually makes sense even if it appears otherwise. DePaul’s numbers are inflated by favorable conditions, while Georgetown’s struggles are already priced in. In a home setting against a road-vulnerable opponent, the Hoyas are the side with the more trustworthy foundation.

DePaul vs Georgetown prediction: Georgetown -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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This play is driven by game texture, not reputation. Houston is elite defensively and thrives in slow, physical games in which possessions are precious and scoring is difficult. That identity travels, but it also compresses margins. When tempo drops and half-court execution dominates, double-digit separation becomes harder to manufacture — especially against a team comfortable playing the same style. TCU fits that description. The Horned Frogs are not built to win shootouts; they are built to defend, rebound and avoid self-inflicted damage. They allow around 70 points per game (68th nationally), which isn’t Houston-level stingy but still reflects a defense-first approach that keeps games within reach. The key is that Houston’s offense — while efficient — isn’t explosive. The Cougars rarely overwhelm opponents with scoring runs; instead, they win through control and discipline. That’s great for winning games, but less reliable for covering large spreads.

Covering this number doesn’t require TCU to outplay Houston — it requires them to stay connected, limit turnovers and make Houston earn every basket. Add a charged home environment and the motivation of a marquee matchup, and the Frogs have the ingredients to turn this into a possession-by-possession fight. In a grind, points become more valuable. TCU’s defensive profile gives it a clear path to stay inside this number.

Houston vs TCU prediction: TCU +8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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San Diego State arrives in Fort Collins as one of the Mountain West’s most consistent teams, boasting a 14-5 overall record and 8-1 in conference play behind a balanced mix of defense and efficient scoring. The Aztecs average around 81 points per game while holding opponents to about 71 ppg, ranking near the top of the league in defensive efficiency and limiting easy looks in the half court. SDSU also rebounds well and forces turnovers at key times, allowing it to convert defense into offense and build leads quickly. The Aztecs’ recent 82-71 win at UNLV showcased both halves of their game: disciplined execution in the half court and the ability to protect a lead late. San Diego State has the personnel and coaching continuity to control pace and minimize extended droughts, particularly at home, making it a tough cover for many Mountain West opponents.

Colorado State enters this game 12-8 overall and 3-6 in conference play, and while the Rams have struggled to string together wins, there are reasons to respect their profile in this matchup — especially in a spread context. Colorado State plays a deliberate offensive style that tends to keep possessions long and scoring runs constrained early, which can keep them in games even when the opponent is favored. The Rams have shown spurts of solid half-court defense and ball movement that frustrate teams not prepared to defend structure early, and their scoring balance has improved in recent weeks. Against a San Diego State squad that often controls the second half more than the first, Colorado State has value as an underdog capable of staying within range through the opening 20 minutes and into the latter stages of games.

Colorado State vs San Diego State prediction: Colorado State +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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