College Basketball Picks

This is simply too many points to ignore with an Iona team that has shown it can score with anyone. The market price here has far less to do with matchup specifics and far more to do with branding. St. John’s is a regional power, a ranked program with March upside, and when you back teams like that, you pay a premium. That premium is fully baked into this number. Iona, meanwhile, gets taxed in the opposite direction. Before the Gaels even take the floor, they are handed an inflated spread simply because they don’t carry the same logo equity. But this isn’t a plucky, low-scoring underdog that needs everything to go right. Iona owns a top-50 offense nationally, averaging north of 80 points per game, and that matters immensely when you’re catching this kind of margin.

Even if St. John’s controls the game — which is entirely possible — Iona’s offense doesn’t shut down when trailing. The Gaels continue to push pace, take shots and score late — which is exactly how large numbers get threatened. That’s why the Gaels haven’t been blown out by anything close to this margin all season. To cover, the Johnnies would need to flirt with triple-digits while also clamping down for a full 40 minutes, and that’s asking a lot. This isn’t about predicting an upset or even a competitive game throughout. It’s about math. It’s about possessions. And it’s about an offense capable of keeping the backdoor wide open. Gaels plus the points.

Iona vs St. John’s prediction: Iona +27.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +27.

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After a late-game collapse against Duke, #9 Michigan State will look to bounce back against Penn State on Saturday afternoon. Over the final 9 minutes against Duke, the Spartans managed to score only 4 points during a 7-minute stretch —  which proved costly in a 66-60 loss. The Spartans boast one of the most pesky defenses in all of college basketball, and according to KenPom they’re ranked 6th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On Saturday, the Nittany Lions will have their hands full; points will be tough to come by against this Spartans team.

Penn State is coming off a lopsided 113-72 loss to Indiana, a game in which the Hoosiers shot an incredible 68.9% from the floor. If PSU doesn’t improve things on defense, MSU will have a great opportunity to run away with this one early on. The Spartans have the edge not only on defense, but also on the glass — averaging 45 rebounds per game compared to Penn State’s 34.7. Michigan State’s physicality and defensive pressure should wear down the Nittany Lions over the course of the game. Look for Jaxon Kohler and Jeremy Fears Jr. to set the tone by controlling the tempo and creating frustration for Penn State as the Spartans get back. 

Michigan State vs Penn State prediction: Michigan State -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This line tells a story, and it’s one worth listening to. On the surface, it looks like an easy case for Oklahoma State: undefeated, catching points, in a rivalry game, against an Oklahoma team that just got smacked by double digits at Arizona State. That’s exactly the profile the market loves to chase. And for a brief moment, they did — the number pushed as high as Sooners -3.5 before the market stepped in and dragged it back down.

That move matters. In a game expected to be tight, grabbing the better of the number is everything. Yes, Oklahoma State is undefeated, but that record is doing a lot of the heavy lifting in perception. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s recent loss is doing the opposite — suppressing their price. That’s the key point: despite the public-facing reasons to back Oklahoma State, the Sooners are still favored. That’s not an accident. If this were purely about records or momentum, Oklahoma would be the underdog. Instead, the market continues to lean their way, which is pivotal. This is one of those spots where the instinctive play feels obvious — and is usually wrong. We don’t need Oklahoma to dominate. We just need them to win close at home, where they are undefeated to get home. This is essentially a pick ’em, and given the fact that the Pokes have yet to play on the road this season, that’s fine by us.

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma prediction: Oklahoma -2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This number is built almost entirely on perception. Purdue checks every box the market loves: top-10 ranking, home court in West Lafayette, Big Ten pedigree, and the residual glow of a recent stretch where they were viewed as the best team in the country. Marquette has none of that shine right now, which is exactly why the spread has ballooned to a place where competency — not an upset — is all we need.

This isn’t about Marquette being better than Purdue. It’s about how games stay closer than expected when one side can manufacture extra possessions. The Golden Eagles do that as well as anyone. They are among the better teams nationally at forcing turnovers while taking care of the ball themselves. That combination matters a lot when you’re catching a big number, because every extra possession is another chance to shorten the margin. Purdue still has to play clean and motivated basketball for 40 minutes, and Marquette has shown enough defensive activity and ball pressure to prevent this from becoming a runaway. We’re not asking the Golden Eagles to threaten the Boilers — just to stay connected. That’s a reasonable ask at this price. Let’s take the points.

Marquette vs Purdue prediction: Marquette +18.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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It’s a Big East matchup as the Providence Friars get ready to take on the Butler Bulldogs. Following a few tough losses, Providence has shown it still possesses a high-powered offense capable of causing problems in the Big East this season. Jason Edwards leads the way with 18 points per game, and with 3 other players averaging double-figures, the Friars present a balanced attack that can be difficult to contain. 

Butler will look to bounce back from its loss to Boise State, but it won’t get any easier against Providence. The Bulldogs lack the same level of depth, with only 3 players averaging double-digits. Finley Bizjack leads the Bulldogs with 18 points per game, but the one player to keep an eye on in this matchup will be Michael Ajayi, who is averaging 16.2 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. Providence will need to find a way to slow Ajayi down in this matchup. The 6’ 7” senior does a great job at crashing the board, creating second-chance opportunities, and the Friars will look to the 6’ 10” sophomore Oswin Erhunmwunse, who averages 7 rebounds per game, to help box him out. The Friars play at a very fast pace, and that’s not Butler’s style. Butler will try to slow things down, but I expect the Friars to be too much on offense and should be able to keep this game closer than the Bulldogs would like. 

Providence vs Butler prediction: Providence +5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Kansas State Wildcats hit the road to face the Creighton Bluejays on Saturday afternoon. Both teams are off to a tepid start, as both have struggled against major conference opponents and have collected 4 losses already. Creighton has losses to Gonzaga, Iowa St, and Baylor, and they just got drubbed by Nebraska in their last outing. K-State just snapped a 4-game skid that included losses to Nebraska, Indiana, Seton Hall, and Bowling Green (yep, they lost that one). Given those results, the metrics like Creighton better, as their losses were all of the “good” variety, and the books have them as small favorites. I like Kansas State to cover the +4.5 though, and that is my preferred play.

These teams are very much opposites. Kansas State plays at a breakneck speed — one of the fastest in the country. The Wildcats shoot the 3-ball well and they rebound well, especially on the offensive glass. The Bluejays, by contrast, play at one of the slowest paces in the league. They also do not shoot well outside, and they rebound poorly. I think this is a spot where the playing styles matter. If Creighton wins, it isn’t likely to blow the Wildcats out of the gym, and its slow pace of play and reticence to shoot the 3 make them likely to be in close games. That is what I am looking for here. I think this one stays close, and it wouldn’t be shocking if the Wildcats win it in the end.

Kansas State vs Creighton prediction: Kansas State +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is the exact moment to step in front of Memphis. The Tigers have been a bettor’s dream so far, sitting at 7-1 against the spread despite an even 4-4 straight-up record. That alone tells you everything about how the market is treating them: Memphis has become the trendy side, the automatic “take the points” team, even when facing a ranked opponent. That’s usually when the value dries up. Louisville is not just another quality foe — this is a program with real substance behind the number. The Cardinals already own road wins at Indiana, handled Kentucky and went into Cincinnati in a rivarly spot and won by double-digits. That’s not hype, that’s résumé. Louisville has consistently shown the ability to control games against credible opposition, and it has done it in hostile environments — not just at home like where they are playing this one.

Memphis, by contrast, is living off one marquee result: the upset of Baylor at home in their most recent outing. That win absolutely mattered, but it’s also inflating perception further. Replicating that type of performance on the road, in one of the most intense home environments in college basketball, is a completely different assignment. That’s why the number has bloated despite Memphis pulling off the upset. The line isn’t disrespectful to Memphis; it’s a reflection of Louisville’s capability. The Cardinals are being priced like a team that can put its foot on the gas and keep it there. When a team with Memphis’ profile keeps cashing, the market responds by daring you to keep riding. This is the point where you don’t, even if it appears opposite. Louisville isn’t here to trade buckets or coast late. The Cards have the physicality, scoring balance and home-court edge to separate decisively. This is where Memphis’ ATS run meets a hard stop. Let’s lay the points.

Memphis vs Louisville prediction: Louisville -15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We have 2 ranked Big Ten Conference teams set to square off on Saturday afternoon as #23 Nebraska heads to State Farm Center to take on #13 Illinois. Nebraska is coming off a dominating 30-point victory over Wisconsin, shooting 54.1% from the floor. Rienk Mast led the team with 17 points, but this Cornhuskers team has a well-balanced attack that could keep Illinois on its heels early.

Illinois, however, brings a lot of offensive firepower that will keep Nebraska busy. The Illini have five players averaging double-digits and leading the Fighting Illini this season is Kylan Boswell with 15.7 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. According to KenPom, Illinois is ranked 5th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Nebraska is ranked 46th. This Illinois team has a ton of depth, plenty of players who can rebound, and they don’t typically turn the ball over a lot. Illinois is 2-2 against top-25 opponents this year, and this is Nebraska’s first actual big test on the road while taking on a top-25 team. Nebraska may be able to hang around early on, but I think Illinois pulls away late in the second half.

Nebraska vs Illinois prediction: Illinois -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Pitt Panthers make the trek across the Keystone State to battle the Villanova Wildcats, looking to turn things around. Pitt suffered an 80-73 loss at home against Hofstra as a 9-point favorite, going 1-4 straight up and against the spread in the past 5 games. As an underdog, Pitt is 1-2 ATS this season. However, in this series, the Panthers have not only won each of the past 6 meetings in this series since Feb. 21, 2010, but the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in that span, too.

For Villanova, it heads in looking to redeem itself following an ugly 89-61 beatdown from Michigan last time out on Tuesday. That halted a 7-game win streak for the Wildcats, although they are just 3-3 ATS in the span. Villanova is just 3-2 ATS in the past 5 games as a double-digit favorite, too. The Wildcats have managed 80.7 ppg and 46.8 percent shooting from the field while going 36.5 percent from behind the 3-point line. Defensively, Villanova has allowed 69.0 ppg, although teams are hitting 44.8 percent; the Wildcats have one of the worst defensive 3-point percentages at 39.8. Look for Pitt, which hits at a 34.3 percent mark from downtown, to stay in the game and cover thanks to its perimeter shooting.

Pittsburgh vs Villanova prediction: Pittsburgh +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +8.5.

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The Kansas Jayhawks head to the Triangle to battle NC State, and it is listed as a road underdog despite being ranked inside the Top 25. Kansas is coming off an impressive 80-60 rout of rival Missouri at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City last time out, and KU has managed victories over the likes of Tennessee, Syracuse and Notre Dame so far this season. While Kansas hasn’t had a lot of road against teams from Tobacco Road, losing 87-74 at North Carolina at the Dean Dome on Nov. 7 as a similar 2.5-point underdog, and 78-66 to Duke at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 18, back the Jayhawks to top NC State.

Head coach Will Wade’s NC State Wolfpack just crushed Liberty 85-45 last time out on Wednesday as a 12.5-point favorite, snapping an 0-3 ATS skid. Against power conference teams so far this season, NC State has proven it isn’t quite ready for primetime. It lost 83-73 at Auburn on Dec. 3 as a 6.5-point underdog, and it fell 102-97 against Texas at the Maui Invitational. The Wolfpack have won seven of 10 games so far, but the jury is still out if NC State is legitimate or if it has just beaten up on the weaklings while getting outclassed by actual competition. This is a measuring-stick game. With how things have unfolded to date, let’s bet against the Wolfpack.

Kansas vs NC State prediction: Kansas ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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The Santa Clara Broncos and Arizona State Sun Devils meet at Lee’s Family Forum in Henderson, Nevada on a neutral floor. The Broncos are looking to bounce back following a 98-71 loss at New Mexico as a 1-point underdog, and Santa Clara has dropped two of the past four games, while going 1-2-1 against the spread in the span. The Over has cashed in 3 in a row, too, if you’re interested in a Same Game Parlay. The Broncos’ defense has struggled, allowing 71 or more points in 4 consecutive outings — including 98 points last time out against UNM.

The Sun Devils dropped Northern Arizona last time out 73-48, covering as a 16-point favorite. The Sun Devils, runners-up at the Maui Invitational, have won 6 of the past 7 games, while covering 5 of the past 6 outings. Arizona State is 7-2 ATS in the past 9 games, too. On a neutral floor, Sparky has won and covered in 3 of 4 games Arizona State is a strong play in Henderson against a Santa Clara team playing poor basketball of late. I’m backing the battle-tested Sun Devils to get the job done outright.

Arizona State vs Santa Clara prediction: Arizona State ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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The Indiana Hoosiers will take a break from conference play when they head to Rupp Arena to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday night. The Hoosiers boast an 8-2 SU record, but have lost 2 of their last 3. They were able to snap a short, 2-game losing streak with a convincing 113-72 home win over Penn State on Tuesday in which they dropped an eye-opening 1.55 points per possession on 83% shooting from two-point range and nearly 55% from three-point range. Meanwhile, Kentucky was also able to snap a mini 2-game losing streak with its own convincing win on Tuesday, but that victory was over North Carolina Central, not a power conference opponent. 

Let’s call a spade a spade here, Kentucky hasn’t been very good against high-level opponents this year. In fact, the Wildcats are 0-4 SU against the 4 top-25 opponents they’ve played per KenPom’s rankings, which includes a 67-64 home loss to North Carolina just a few days before they were absolutely obliterated by Gonzaga 94-59 at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.

When I wrote and published my Saturday best bet article last night, this line was at 5.5. Now sitting around 2.5 points, there’s not much value left on the spread, so let’s pivot to the money line. This is not a Kentucky defense that I trust at all in step-up games, especially on the perimeter where the Wildcats sit 223rd in three-point rate allowed. That’s not exactly a recipe for success against an Indiana team that can flat-out shoot the ball. The Hoosiers are top-40 in both three-point rate and three-point percentage, and while we haven’t quite seen that efficiency from deep on the road yet this year, Kentucky is likely to give them plenty of chances to heat up from range.

Indiana vs Kentucky prediction: Indiana Hoosiers ML (+134) at the time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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The Michigan Wolverines will travel to College Park on Saturday for a Big Ten matchup against the Maryland Terrapins. Maryland is 6-4 on the season under new head coach Buzz Williams and has lost 3 out of the last 4 games. The Terps’ last 3 high-major games have resulted in blowout losses. Michigan has been one of the best teams in the entire country this season and is now #1. The Wolverines are -19 on the road and I like them to cover.

The Wolverines have blown out every opponent they have played over their last 6 games. They have moved from preseason #11 KenPom ranked to the #1 ranked team following their routs of Middle Tennessee, San Diego State, Auburn, Gonzaga, Rutgers and Villanova. Their defense should make it very hard for Maryland’s offense to score in this one, as Michigan’s defense is ranked #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and #1 in 2-point percentage. Maryland’s offense is ranked in #277 in 2-point percentage and #130 overall, so I do not see the Terps having much success in this one.

Michigan vs Maryland: Michigan -19 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at -20.

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The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will make the short trip to Newark on Saturday for a non-conference matchup against the Seton Hall Pirates. This game will be played at Seton Hall this season for the Garden State Hardwood Classic. The Pirates are 9-1 on the year and are a big favorite in this one. Seton Hall is an 11-point favorite, but my best bet of the game is the under.

The total is set at just 131.5 points, and I believe the total will remain under that number. I like the under here because both teams play slow and do not have good offenses. According to KenPom, Seton Hall is ranked #299 in adjusted tempo and Rutgers is ranked #294. It should be a slow-paced game and neither offense is efficient enough for me to back the over. Rutgers’ offense is ranked #160 in adjusted offensive efficiency, #275 in effective field-goal percentage and #321 in 2-point percentage. Seton Hall’s offense is ranked #122 in adjusted offensive efficiency, #181 in effective field-goal percentage and #210 in 2-point percentage. I do not see either offense being good enough to carry the total over, especially against a Seton Hall defense that is ranked #13 nationally in adjusted efficiency. I’m taking the under.

Rutgers vs Seton Hall prediction: Under 131.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 130.

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The Arizona Wildcats and the Alabama Crimson Tide will face off on Saturday night in Birmingham for a ranked matchup. It will be a top-15 tilt inside Legacy Arena with Arizona ranked #1 in the country and Alabama ranked #12. It’s a semi- home game for Alabama, but Arizona is still a slight favorite in this one. ‘Zona is currently -1.5 but my best bet of the game is the over.

Both teams boast efficient offenses and play a high-paced style. The Crimson Tide are one of the fastest teams in the country and like to shoot as many 3s as they can, so their up-and-down style should dictate a fast-paced game. According to KenPom, Alabama is ranked #9 nationally in adjusted tempo and #9 in average offensive possession length. Likewise, Arizona is ranked #34 in adjusted tempo and #41 in average offensive possession length.

Elite offense should be on display all night as both Alabama and Arizona are ranked inside the top 23 in points per game this season. Alabama is ranked #2 in adjusted offensive efficiency; Arizona is ranked #9 per KenPom. A battle between 2 top-10 offenses and fast-paced teams should help carry the total over.

Arizona vs Alabama prediction: Over 178 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We have a clash of top 25 teams as the UCLA Bruins head to Spokane to face the Gonzaga Bulldogs. These are 2 good teams, although they are wildly different styles of play. Gonzaga has suffered only one loss this season — a 40-point beating from Michigan in the Players Era championship game. But the Zags just obliterated Kentucky at Rupp Arena and they have handled anyone else who has been willing to play them this season. For UCLA, there was a close loss to Arizona and a surprise loss at Cal — otherwise this team has been cruising. I could see UCLA being more competitive than the 10.5-point spread, but I could also see things spiraling out of control in a tough road environment. Instead, I prefer to play the game total Under 148.5.

Gonzaga plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country, as usual. The Bulldogs fly all over the court, playing more offense than defense, although oddly enough, the metrics folks mostly rate them as a top-10 defensive team. UCLA is a slow, methodical, defensive team; as it is in most years under head coach Mick Cronin. Neither team shoots a lot of 3s and both rebound well. When teams like this get together, the slow team usually wins out in terms of pace of play. Note that UCLA played Arizona to a 69-65 game, and Arizona is as similar in playing style to Gonzaga as anyone in the country. When these teams faced off last year (with totally different players but the same overall team concepts and styles), the result was a 65-62 scoreline. I look for something more along those lines on Saturday night. Give me the under.

UCLA at Gonzaga prediction: Under 148.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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