College Football Picks

The Georgia Southern Eagles and Appalachian State Mountaineers renew acquaintances at the JLab Birmingham Bowl on Monday afternoon at Protective Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 pm ET. The Mountaineers were 5-7, and accepted a bowl bid with extra space available with teams electing not to play in the postseason. The loss of those others is the gain of App State. The Mountaineers have dropped 5 of the past 6 games, going 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS), and that includes a 25-23 loss to Georgia Southern as a 5-point favorite on November 6 in Boone, as the Under (61.5) cashed.

Georgia Southern has won 3 of its final 4 games, while also going 3-1 ATS in the span. After a slow start defensively, the Eagles turned a corner and showed slight improvement as the season went along. The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 games, with the offense producing rather sporadic results. The defense has allowed 24 or fewer points in 3 of the past 6 outings, including the 25-23 win at App State. RB OJ Arnold was injured late in the season, and he is unlikely to play for the Eagles, while QBs AJ Swann and JJ Kohl each hit the transfer portal. With some big-time offensive weapons missing, both offenses could be a little disjointed. Go low.

Georgia Southern vs Appalachian State Birmingham Bowl prediction: Under 59.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 57.5.

You can bet on our Birmingham Bowl pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

At first glance, this number feels justified. Louisiana Tech has the better record, has been far kinder to bettors, and enters this matchup riding a bit of momentum. Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, looks like a team in free fall—three straight losses, the last two coming by blowout margins where the Chanticleers surrendered more than 50 points in each. On paper, it’s easy to understand why the Bulldogs are laying this kind of tag. But dig a layer deeper, and the confidence behind Louisiana Tech quickly erodes. The Bulldogs are being asked to do something they have repeatedly failed to do this season: handle the role of favorite. This is a team that has lost three of its last four games outright when laying points, beginning with a flat performance against Kennesaw State that exposed their limitations. Louisiana Tech’s recent success has come almost exclusively as an underdog, where expectations are lower and pressure is minimal. Asking them to suddenly flip that script and win by margin is a dangerous proposition.

Yes, the Bulldogs have won two straight games, and yes, they did so as slight underdogs. But that’s exactly the issue—those results have inflated their market perception without changing the underlying profile of the team. Louisiana Tech remains volatile, inconsistent, and unreliable when forced to dictate play. That’s the definition of a false favorite. Coastal Carolina, on the other hand, enters this game with nothing to lose. Their recent results have completely removed them from the betting radar, which is precisely why the number has ballooned to this range. This game doesn’t require Coastal to be the better team—only competitive. With Louisiana Tech’s history of failing to capitalize as the chalk, nine points is simply too much to give in a matchup filled with volatility and uncertainty.

Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech prediction: Coastal Carolina +9 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech predictions.

Bowl games often come down to one simple question: who actually wants to be there? And in this matchup, that question hangs squarely over Tennessee. The Volunteers entered the season with playoff aspirations after last year’s run, but those hopes were extinguished in November with a damaging home loss to Oklahoma. Since then, Tennessee’s resume has been padded with wins over New Mexico State and a Florida team that is in complete turmoil. The season ended on a sour note as well, with the Vols losing at home to Vanderbilt — a game where effort and urgency clearly favored the underdog. A spot that Vandy made the most of while Tennessee was left with even more question marks.

Illinois, meanwhile, views this game very differently. Despite sitting inside the Top Ten in the early going of the regular season, the Illini were never built for a Big Ten title run this season. That much was proven when one draws Indiana, Ohio State, and a road trip to Washington on the schedule and looked non-competitve in none of those contests. Still, Illinois has shown that they can compete physically and punch above their weight in the right spot. A bowl matchup against a brand-name SEC opponent that may already be thinking about 2026 is exactly the kind of opportunity for that to happen. Illinois plays a style of football that can neutralize Tennessee’s biggest strength – their offense. By controlling the line of scrimmage, shortening the game, and keeping possessions limited, the Illini can keep the Vols’ explosive offense on the sideline. That is also key against a Tennessee defense allowing nearly 29 points per game. The Illini may not only be able to mitigate the Volunteers’ offense but can also build a lead to cut their defensive line loose which loves to get into the backfield and disrupt things. With Illinois priced inside a field goal as an underdog, the number suggests this game is a tenable assignment for Illinois. If motivation matters — and in bowl season it always does — the Illini hold those cards too. Illinois outright.

Tennessee vs Illinois prediction: Illinois ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook for the football season, we recommend checking out Fanatics Sportsbook. New users can get $250 in FanCash INSTANTLY when they make their first $50 wager! Join Fanatics Sportsbook, where you can bet on our Tennessee vs Illinois predictions.

Tennessee’s offensive reputation naturally pushes the total upward, but this matchup does not favor a shootout if Illinois is competitive — and especially if Illinois wins outright. The Illini’s path to victory is clear: slow the game down, control possession, and keep Tennessee’s offense on the sideline. Illinois is comfortable grinding out long drives, shortening quarters, and turning games into physical contests. That approach directly suppresses total possessions, which is poison for an over at this number.

Tennessee’s defense also plays a role here. While they allow points, that doesn’t automatically translate to a high total. Illinois is more likely to finish drives methodically than strike quickly, which eats clock even when points are scored. Once again, this drains time. There is also strong correlation here. If Illinois is in position to win, they are controlling tempo. If they are controlling tempo, the game will lean towards the under. A high-scoring shootout favors Tennessee and works against the Illini’s strengths. This total assumes pace and fireworks but that only happens if the Volunteers win. We’re backing the Illini. Thus, the under fits the script.

Tennessee vs Illinois prediction: Under 61.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

You can bet on our Tennessee vs Illinois pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

Bowl season keeps rolling along on Tuesday, and arguably the most fascinating game on the card comes in the form of the Alamo Bowl between the USC Trojans and TCU Horned Frogs. Both of these teams are going to be missing a ton of players heading into this game, which makes this a pretty difficult handicap on paper. On the TCU side of things, quarterback Josh Hoover is out, along with wide receiver Jordan Dwyer and running back Kevorian Barnes. That eliminates a lot of the potential for offense for the Horned Frogs, even against a USC defense that is going to be down a considerable number of pieces of its own. Furthermore, offensive coordinator Kendal Briles is not going to be on the sidelines for this game, so it’s hard to see TCU mustering up a ton of offense in this one.

On the other side of the ball, USC is going to have quarterback Jayden Maiava in this game, as the veteran has re-signed with the Trojans for another season. However, Lincoln Riley’s team is dealing with a ton of roster turnover and will be without some of their best players on Tuesday, including the wide receiver duo of Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. With that in mind, we can expect Riley to lean on his ground game against a TCU defense that hasn’t exactly put up stellar metrics in that department this season. Given the fact that USC’s offense should be a bit more limited than usual and the TCU offense is down multiple key pieces in this game, the under is the only way I can look on Tuesday.

USC vs TCU prediction: Under 55.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Bet like a Caesar with this AMAZING new customer offer from Caesars Sportsbook. If you bet just $1, you’ll receive DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS on your next 20 bets! 👥 using the Caesars promo code PWCONTENT20X, where you can bet on our USC vs TCU picks.

Iowa’s recent bowl history includes more SEC opponents than not, and much of the same is true this year when the Hawkeyes meet the Vanderbilt Commodores in the ReliaQuest Bowl on New Year’s Eve at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Iowa finished the season 8-4 with losses to Iowa State, Indiana, Oregon, and USC. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt finished just outside of the College Football Playoff at 10-2, losing at Alabama and Texas. This game represents a strength-on-strength battle when Vanderbilt’s offense goes up against Iowa’s defense, but also a weakness-on-weakness battle when the Hawkeyes go up against the ‘Dores defense. 

Vanderbilt stud TE Eli Stowers will not play in this game, which will be a big loss for the ‘Dores. However, assuming everyone else plays, which is expected as of Monday morning, Vanderbilt still should have plenty in the tank offensively. Heisman-hopeful QB Diego Pavia is expected to be under center in what figures to be his final collegiate game, and he will be surrounded by capable playmakers at Vanderbilt’s skill positions in RB Sedrick Alexander, WR Tre Richadson, and WR Junior Sherrill. It is Alexander that I believe will be the catalyst for Vanderbilt’s success in this game, as Iowa’s weakest defensive attributes are on the ground. For reference, Iowa is outside the top 50 in PPA per rush and rushing success rate allowed this season, and it was even worse down the stretch – as Hawkeyes are 83rd in PPA per rush and 75th in rushing success rate allowed since Week 9. Furthermore, they haven’t generated a ton of havoc in that stretch, which should give Pavia more time to operate as the maestro of this offense – a unit that finished the season 1st in PPA per play, 2nd in success rate, and 5th in points per quality drive outside of garbage time. 

On the other side of the ball, Vanderbilt is nowhere near the same level of efficiency defensively as it is offensively. However, Iowa hardly poses a threat when it has the ball. The Hawkeyes are 95th in yards per play and 121st in total offense this season, as well as outside the top 50 PPA per play and success rate since Week 9. The strongest part of this offense is its run game, which just so happens to be the best attribute of Vanderbilt’s defense. The Commodores are top-15 in rushing yards allowed per game, and they are top-35 in PPA per rush outside of garbage time since Week 9. 

So long as Pavia and Alexander play, I trust Vanderbilt’s offense way more than Iowa’s, even if the Commodores struggle defensively. Look for Pavia and the ‘Dores to play with a chip on their shoulders in a win and cover over Iowa. 

Iowa vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores -4 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better. 

You can bet on our Iowa vs Vanderbilt pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

The Arizona State Sun Devils face the Duke Blue Devils in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, which is played in El Paso. Duke is the champion of the ACC, which is still really odd to say, especially for a team that is 8-5. They have done it most of the season with offense, and it has been enough to make the Blue Devils relevant. ASU, on the other hand, had a disappointing season after making the playoffs the year before. Most of their season was wrecked by injuries, especially to their start QB Sam Leavitt and NFL-caliber WR Jordyn Tyson. Tyson will opt out, while Leavitt is injured but also in the portal. The Sun Devils have been fighting on without their stars, and they will be competitive here, but their depleted roster will likely catch up with them. I prefer Duke -3 in this spot.

ASU has played excellent defense all season, and it has been enough to keep them in most games. Duke has an aggressive offense, and as long as they can hold up against the pass rush of the Sun Devils, Duke should be able to score. My concerns here come on the offensive side for ASU. Kenny Dillingham has a lot of players missing this bowl game, and they were already struggling to score throughout most of the second half of the season. While Duke is a softer defense than most of the Big 12 opponents ASU faced, it is hard to believe in this offensive unit, even with the extra couple of weeks to prepare. Duke, whose roster is mostly intact, should be the better team here, and I will take them as long as it is 3 points or less.

Arizona State vs Duke Prediction: Duke -3 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Texas is being priced here as though it is should have been in the College Football Playoff — but that makes sense, the Wolverines are in a transition period from a coaching perspective. But a closer look suggests the Longhorns may be riding perception more than reality. Michigan enters this matchup as mentioned surrounded by noise: the coaching turmoil, the fallout from Sherron Moore’s firing, and the Ohio State loss. Texas meanwhile has gripes about not making the CFP.

But semantics inside, what has Texas truly done to justify laying this kind of number? Yes, they own top-10 wins over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M — but each comes with context. Oklahoma’s offense was compromised and their flaws obvious all season. John Mateer was also banged up in Red River. Texas A&M largely beat itself in Austin. And Vanderbilt? They nearly erased a 24-point deficit in the DKR. Meanwhile, Texas also needed overtime to escape both Mississippi State and Kentucky — two losing teams — lost to a four-win Florida side in Gainesville, and was dismantled by Georgia. That résumé hardly screams “trustworthy favorite laying more than a touchdown.” Michigan still plays elite defense, controls the trenches, and are a physical bunch. That profile travels — especially as an underdog. The Wolverines don’t need to win outright to  be in position here, they simply need to play their brand of football. With Texas likely overpriced and Michigan undervalued, the points here are a steal.

Michigan vs Texas prediction: Michigan +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

With head coach Kyle Whittingham being hired and moving on to coach Michigan, Utah will try to win their first game with defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley as the interim head coach. Their opponent in the Las Vegas Bowl will be the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Expectations were high this season for Nebraska, but after an injury to quarterback Dylan Raiola, the Cornhuskers finished the season 7-5 and in the middle of the Big Ten Standings. Nebraska finished their year losing three of their last four games, while Utah finished winning their last five games, and 10 of 12 overall. 

Whittingham left the University of Utah after creating an impressive, long term program that doesn’t get enough credit. He coached 21 seasons at Utah and posted a record of 177-88 as head coach. Scalley has also been with Utah for quite some time. He has been within the program since 2007, but has no previous head coaching experience. Scalley will have his quarterback, Devon Dampier, who finished the season with 2180 yards and 22 touchdowns, but will be without a pair of offensive lineman to protect him. Both Caleb Lomu and Spencer Fano declared they will sit out this game in preparations for the NFL Draft. Despite falling below expectations this season, Nebraska should still consider this season a step forward. It will be the first time since 2016 that Nebraska will compete in a bowl game in back-to-back years. Head coach Matt Rhule will get another good opportunity to look at freshman quarterback TJ Lateef against a solid opponent. Lateef threw for 722 yards and 4 touchdowns in 6 games played this season. Overall, I believe there has been too much turnover in the roster and coaching staff to back Utah at this number. I’m looking for Nebraska to put forth a good effort as they look forward to another step forward next season.

Nebraska +14 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The College Football Playoff resumes on Wednesday after a much-too-long break between the first round and the second round. There will only be one CFP matchup on New Year’s Eve before the final 3 quarterfinal games are played on New Year’s Day, and that lone matchup pits the 11-2 Miami Hurricanes and the 12-1 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Hurricanes come into this playoff matchup on the heels of a 10-3 first-round win over Texas A&M in College Station, but they were outgained, had 9 fewer first downs, and converted just 25% of their third downs. The keys to victory were the 3 turnovers they forced and the 6.3 yards per rush they averaged against the Aggies defense. 

At 87th nationally in giveaways per game, the Aggies were very much turnover-prone this year. Ohio State is a completely different animal, as the Buckeyes average just 0.7 giveaways per game – good for 4th nationally. Much of that is due to OSU QB Julian Sayin’s ball security, as the first-year starter has just 6 interceptions on 6 turnover-worthy plays. Compare that to TAMU QB Marcel Reed, who finished the year with 12 interceptions and 22 turnover-worthy plays – tied for 3rd-most nationally. Considering Sayin finished the season with no more than 1 turnover-worth play in any game, it’s hard to imagine Miami capitalizing on turnovers like it did against Texas A&M. 

It’s also difficult to envision Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. having as much success on the ground against the Buckeyes as he did against the Aggies. For reference, Fletcher averaged just over 10 yards per carry and accounted for 172 of Miami’s 278 total yards. He attacked the weakness of Texas A&M’s defense (104th in PPA per rush this season) I mentioned in my Miami-Texas A&M preview, which ultimately was the reason – along with Reed’s turnover propensity – we played Miami plus the points. This time around, Fletcher and Miami will face an Ohio State run defense that is 5th in rush yards allowed per game and 6th in yards per attempt this season, not to mention being 1st nationally in scoring and total defense. Moreover, the Buckeyes are 10th in PPA per rush and 18th in standard downs PPA allowed since Week 9, so they are in great form coming into this game. Without a reliable run game, more pressure will be thrust onto Carson Beck’s shoulders, which isn’t very settling for Miami given Beck’s hit-or-miss play against above-average defenses.

On the other side of the ball, Miami grades very well. The Hurricanes are top-12 in yards per play, scoring, and total defense, but they showed some deficiencies against capable offenses like Louisville and Texas A&M. Ohio State has the best offense of any that Miami has seen to this point, even if the Buckeyes are outside the top 15 in scoring and total offense due to their slow pace of play. Since Week 9, the Bucks are top-10 in PPA per play, success rate, and points scored per quality drive, and they are notably good on passing downs, which has been an area of weakness for Miami’s defense. 

Miami has star power similar to that of Ohio State, but for my money, the Buckeyes are the more complete team with a more reliable head coach, and they are better than the Hurricanes in almost every aspect on both sides of the ball. Look for OSU to suffocate Miami in a win and cover to advance to the semifinals. 

Miami vs Ohio State prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes -9 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Miami vs Ohio State CFP predictions.

Both Miami and Ohio State deploy very methodical offenses, as the Hurricanes are 129th in seconds per play while the Buckeyes are dead last at 136th. Right off the bat, I lean to the under because of that, along with the extra preparation both teams had coming into this matchup. Furthermore, Miami and OSU’s defensive success will play a factor in whether or not this game stays under the total, as they mutually rank top-12 in yards per play and third-down conversion rate allowed this year. That defensive prowess hasn’t tailed off much at all down the stretch considering the Hurricanes and the Buckeyes are top-25 in PPA per play allowed since Week 9. Both defenses have been especially good on standard downs in that span, which means Miami and Ohio State could face more third-and-long situations than they would like. 

Given how good both defenses are on early downs and third downs, it’s no surprise to see Miami and Ohio State sitting in the top-5 in red-zone attempts allowed this season. Simply put, it’s been difficult to move the ball on either team, which leads me to believe this will be a low-scoring game. However, I also acknowledge the offensive ceiling Ohio State showcased in the College Football Playoff last year. If the Buckeyes decide to play faster now that they reached the postseason, this total may end up being too low by a few points, but until that happens, I lean to the under. 

Miami vs Ohio State prediction: Under 41.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 41.

Bet like a Caesar with this AMAZING new customer offer from Caesars Sportsbook. If you bet just $1, you’ll receive DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS on your next 20 bets! Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PWCONTENT20X, where you can bet on our Miami vs OSU picks.