College Football Best Bets

The Michigan State Spartans have lost 7 straight entering Saturday’s matchup on the road against a quality Iowa Hawkeyes squad. While Iowa has made a name for itself in recent years with some low-scoring, darwin out results, that’s the Hawkeyes of old. In 2025, this offense is more than capable of putting up points behind an elite rushing attack. Iowa ranks 18th in both EPA/rush and rushing success rate, which bodes well against this Spartans squad that 97th in EPA/rush and 112th in net points per drive allowed.

Michigan State has been poor in practically every area defensively, but particularly when it comes to stalling drives; the Spartans rank 93rd in red zone defense in 110th in points per quality drive allowed. I expect the Iowa offense to have an exceptional day, already scoring 34+ points in half of its games this season. The Michigan State offense has looked slightly improved ever since Alessio Milivojevic took over at QB, and has posted a respectable 24 points per game in 2025. With all things considered, I’ve got the over in this one.

Michigan State vs Iowa prediction: Over 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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The Houston Cougars host the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday afternoon in a Big 12 battle. The Cougars are still at least theoretically alive for the Big 12 championship game at 5-2 in the conference, and they have had a fantastic season that has exceeded all expectations. In all honestly, this is a really good team that isn’t flashy, but they just keep doing the little things to win games. Meanwhile, TCU comes in at 6-4 following a pair of losses against BYU and Iowa State. This game has a lot more at stake for Houston than for the Frogs, and I love that the game is basically a pick ‘em. I will take the Cougars at home at -1.

TCU is a 1-dimensional offense. The Frogs cannot run the ball, and that predictability has made their offense less and less effective as the season has worn on. Houston has a good defense, and the Frogs have struggled against good defenses all season. Houston should be able to control the game on the defensive side, especially if they can limit explosive plays. On the other side of the ball, Houston’s offense has been getting better as the season has gone along, while Conner Weigman continues to improve. That wasn’t particularly true last week, though, when he tossed 3 picks at UCF. I expect him to bounce back at home with a lot on the line. I don’t think this is a gimme for the Cougs by any means, but I like their chances to deliver at home. Trust the better team with more at stake.

TCU vs Houston Prediction: Houston Cougars -1 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -2.5.

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We head to the B1G on Saturday night for what was no doubt designed to be a late-season blockbuster game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Penn State Nittany Lions. It turns out, the Lord had other plans, as they like to say, and both teams have lost their star QBs for the season. Now, what was once intended to be a battle for a potential playoff spot has turned into a ho-hum Saturday night. Still, there is opportunity to make money here, and I think the way we do that is to back Penn State to cover -8.

My expectation is that the public will be down on Penn State after the Nittany Lions fell on hard times, forgetting just how much elite talent is scattered all over this roster. Indiana almost found out the hard way, and this team is far from a dumpster fire. Savvy bettors should notice that Penn State has started to figure things out again, boasting an elite defense with a capable-enough offense. PSU can run the ball dominantly, and Nebraska ranks 91^st in rushing yards allowed.

It will be cold in Happy Valley for a 7:00 pm kickoff, perfect conditions for defense and running the ball. The argument against this spread is that we would want it under 7 points, but I struggle to see how Nebraska will move the ball much at all in this game. I think this one could spiral out of control for Matt Rhule’s bunch in a hostile, inhospitable road environment against a team still hungry to prove something (and that can still get bowl eligible after all they’ve been through), and if Nebraska is forced to put too much on the shoulders of a new QB in only his second start, that could spell disaster. Give me the Nittany Lions here.

Nebraska vs Penn State Prediction: Penn State Nittany Lions -8 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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The California Golden Bears will travel to take on the Stanford Cardinal in an ACC matchup this Saturday night. California has a record of 6-4 and it is 3-3 in conference games. The Golden Bears are coming off a big 29-26 overtime win against Louisville in their last game. Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele had arguably his best game in his young collegiate career, throwing for 323 yards and 2 touchdowns against an excellent defense. Sagapolutele is a true freshman but showed his potential, especially on his game-winning throw in overtime on 4th-and-goal. Stanford has a record of 3-7 and a conference mark of 2-5. The Cardinal are currently on a 3-game losing streak, including a 20-15 loss in their last game against North Carolina. Freshman quarterback Elijah Brown threw for 284 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception in the loss. Both teams are coming off a bye this last weekend, so they should be ready to go.

This is the “Band is on the Field” rivalry, so each team certainly has this game circled. California has won the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams, including 2 double-digit wins at Stanford. In a battle of what will be freshman quarterbacks, I’m leaning towards Sagapolutele and California in this game. As a freshman, Sagapolutele is currently eighth in college football in passing attempts with 364 attempts. He has completed more than 60% of those throws and has accumulated 2518 yards passing. That all goes to show that California loves to throw the football, and head coach Justin Wilcox trusts his freshman to air it out. I think the Golden Bears have a good opportunity to test a struggling Cardinal secondary Saturday night. Stanford currently ranks 134th in passing yards allowed per game at a total of 284.5 yards. Elijah Brown will likely be making his second start of his career with more left to prove, while Sagapolutele has shown his development toward consistency as the season has progressed. Give me California to build off a big win against Louisville.

Cal vs Stanford prediction: Cal -3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The San Jose State Spartans hit the road for Snapdragon Stadium to battle the first-place San Diego State Aztecs, who can clinch a spot in the Mountain West Conference championship game with a win. Don’t expect San Diego State to take its foot off the gas and suffered a letdown. San Diego State bounced back nicely in the rain last week against Boise State, winning 17-7 – a good win after a debacle in the islands when it lost 38-6 at Hawaii. The Aztecs are still 7-1 SU in the past 8 games, and they’re also 7-1 ATS in the span. The under is 4-0 in the past 4 games, too, as the defense has been on point for San Diego State. It has allowed 10 or fewer points in 4 of the past 5 games, and it has 3 shutout wins while surrendering 10 or fewer points on 7 occasions.

The Spartans are no longer eligible for a bowl after losing their 7th game of the season at Nevada last week, 55-10. It has allowed 26 or more points in 9 consecutive games, as San Jose State has dropped 4 of the past 5 contests while going 1-4 ATS. However, San Jose State has scored just 13.0 PPG in the past 2 games, and against San Diego State, it won’t get much better. Look for a rout for the Aztecs, and go with the under, too.

San Jose State vs San Diego State prediction: San Diego State Aztecs -11.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5.

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Following a 49-13 win over Purdue, the 7-3 Washington Huskies will head to southern California to play the 3-7 UCLA Bruins. Meanwhile, the Bruins come into this game after being beat down by the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus. It was the 3rd straight loss for the Bruins, who were without starting QB Nico Iamaleava in the contest. Iamaleava participated in drills on Tuesday, so he could return from concussion on Saturday. However, regardless of his status, I like the Huskies in this battle of former Pac-12 foes. 

Washington certainly hasn’t fared well on the road this year, but not all road games are created equal in the Big Ten nowadays. The Huskies’ worst road performances were all in the central and eastern time zones, but they won’t leave the west coast for this one – which has to be a relief. While the Huskies haven’t been the most reliable ATS as a favorite either, I power rate them as 14-point favorites in this matchup. 

When you look at the numbers, it makes sense. The Bruins haven’t been good on either side of the ball of late. In fact, they are outside the top 100 in PPA per play and points per quality drive on both offense and defense. Compare that to Washington, who is top-35 offensively and top-20 defensively in the aforementioned metrics. Moreover, Washington has reached the red zone 14 more times than UCLA this year and boasts the 3rd-best red-zone touchdown rate nationally – punching it into the end zone on 33 of 42 trips across the opposing 20-yard line. That smells like trouble for Bruins, who rank 133rd in red-zone touchdowns allowed (33) and 135th in opposing red-zone touchdown rate (78.57%). Look for the Huskies to name their score and cruise to a win and cover.

Washington vs UCLA prediction: Washington Huskies -10 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -12.5.  

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