College Football Parlays

Following a mutual bye week, the Louisville Cardinals will hit the road for Coral Gables for a primetime, Friday night meeting with the Miami Hurricanes. The ‘Cards fell to the Virginia Cavaliers in overtime 30-27 last time out, despite holding the ‘Hoos to just 237 total yards, 2.8 yards per carry and 6/15 on third downs. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes had their way with their in-state rival Florida State. The scoreboard and box score may depict a close game, but Miami was up 28-3 heading into the fourth quarter before letting off the gas a bit. 

Louisville and Miami have been 2 of the best defenses in the nation over the last 5 weeks from an efficiency standpoint. Both top-16 in PPA per play outside of garbage time since Week 3, the ‘Cards and the ‘Canes are also top-10 in success rate allowed and have surrendered fewer than 3.5 points per quality drive in that span. Miami’s defense figures to be a massive step up in class for Louisville’s offense, as the Hurricanes stop-unit is in a completely different class than the likes of James Madison, Bowling Green, Pitt and Virginia. 

These are 2 top-10 teams from a turnover margin perspective, while Louisville plays at a very deliberate pace – ranking 129th in seconds per play against FBS opponents. Moreover, both teams are flagged for penalties at an above-average rate, which may cut drives short at various points of the game. This has been a high-scoring matchup in recent years, but I’m expecting a slower, more defensive-minded game than those – so I lean to the under in this Friday ACC matchup. 

Louisville vs Miami prediction: Under 53 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better. 

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Our Friday night B1G matchup features the Nebraska Cornhuskers vs the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Gophers are looking to build on their narrow win over Purdue last week, and they play a brand of football that leads to a lot of one-possession games. Their offense is not great, and they rely on their defense to keep games close. This week will be a tough test with the Huskers in town. The Huskers have a real shot at the postseason if they can win a tough road game here. I do not love that this spread is up above a touchdown, but I do feel like most of the money will end up on the Minnesota side as people bet on a close game. I am looking for Nebraska to win this game by something closer to 10, so I am taking the Huskers to cover.

We are far enough into the season that some of the cumulative stats are starting to be meaningful. The Cornhuskers have the #1 passing defense in the nation, allowing only 118 yards per game. They are middle of the road against the run, but Minnesota has been entirely impotent on the ground so far this season, and they want to pass first. That’s a problem in this matchup. Nebraska also boasts a top-10 passing offense led by Dylan Raiola, who threw 4 TDs last week. He also threw 3 picks, which is something he cannot keep doing. If the Huskers can continue to attack through the air, it should be a tough day for the Gophers to score, and I think Nebraska pulls away. Give me the Cornhuskers.

Nebraska vs Minnesota prediction: Nebraska -8 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The North Carolina Tar Heels will travel to the west coast on Friday night to take on the California Bears in an ACC matchup. North Carolina is on a 2-game losing streak and 0-1 in conference games. Their most recent loss came against Clemson 38-10. Struggling Clemson was able to roll against the Tar Heel defense that allows on average 373.2 yards per game this season. Max Johnson was back under center as a starting quarterback for the first time since the Tar Heels opening game last season. Johnson sustained a season-ending injury last season and has been spent his last couple of games splitting time with Gio Lopez. Johnson played the whole game against Clemson, throwing for 208 yards and completing 62% of his passes. He will try to continue to improve against a California defense that ranks 57th in the FBS against the pass, allowing 207.3 passing yards per game.

California is led by freshman quarterback standout Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. Sagapolutele’s performance has been up and down this season. He is coming off a poor outing against Duke where he threw 3 interceptions in a 45-21 loss. Overall, the California quarterback has thrown 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in California’s last 3 games.

North Carolina head coach Bill Belichick shut down rumors this week of him potentially leaving the program. Belichick said the rumors were false and he is here to stay in Chapel Hill to try and continue to build the program. In his first season, things have not gone well through 5 games. The Tar Heels have struggled on both sides of the ball, and they have been searching for players who can help improve this team’s performance. The key focus I have for the Tar Heels against California will be time of possession. North Carolina has struggled to sustain drives, and their defense has spent a lot of time on the field. They currently average 26:39 in time of possession in their first 5 games.

California’s inconsistencies should provide the Tar Heel’s defense with opportunities to get off the field and get the ball back in the hands of their offense. Sagapolutele’s turnovers have caused concerns on their own, but the Bears’ offense also has really struggled running the football. They rank 126th in the FBS with only 98 rushing yards per game. With a struggling quarterback and run game that can’t gain good yardage on first and second down, the Tar Heels should have multiple opportunities to stop California’s offense in 3rd and longs. If Johnson can continue to improve under center and limit turnovers, the Tar Heels should be able to keep this game close.

North Carolina vs Cal prediction: UNC +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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From a numbers perspective, it’s hard to get there with Louisville as a 2-touchdown underdog in this spot. Head coach Jeff Brohm has historically been very profitable in the underdog role, and he’ll be opposing a head coach in Mario Cristobal that has certainly had his struggles as a double-digit favorite in conference play.

While Miami appears to be one of the best teams in the nation this season, the Hurricanes defense has been a middling unit when it comes to allowing points once the opponent crosses their 40-yard line. Louisville’s defense is quite strong (11th in success rate allowed) and the Cardinals also much healthier on offense following a bye week. I trust the veteran presence of Miller Moss to have the Cardinals ready to execute in this one on the road.

For the 2nd leg of our Friday evening CFB parlay, let’s take the home underdog to keep this Big Ten clash within a possession. For starters, this is a good spot for Minnesota, as the Gophers will be playing their third home game over the last four weeks, and they’ll host a Nebraska team that is playing its second straight road game in conference play.

Furthermore, the Cornhuskers could’ve easily lost a week ago to Maryland, as Matt Rhule’s team needed 10 points in the 4th quarter to stave off the upset in College Park. That followed a game in which Nebraska had significant special teams and turnover luck in a flukey 11-point win over Michigan State, which has already not aged all that well following last week’s results. This one should be a close, low-scoring affair in Minneapolis.

The final leg of our CFB parlay takes us out west, where we’ll lay the points with California at home against a North Carolina team that has been an absolute mess all season long. The Tar Heels have been flat out non-competitive in each of their 3 losses to this point, with the most embarrassing result coming to Clemson in their ACC home opener on October 4.

Now, Bill Belichick’s group — a team that might’ve already quit on the season — has to head to the west coast for a date against a California side that is coming off a bye week following a deflating loss at the hands of Duke. Luckily for Justin Wilcox’s group, this North Carolina offense (115th in success rate, 119th in points per drive) is nothing like what the Bears saw against Duke, or even San Diego State a few weeks ago. We can only look at Cal on Friday.