College Football Picks

The Rice Owls hit the road for Jerry Richardson Stadium in the Queen City to take on the Charlotte 49ers in an American Conference matchup. The Owls opened the season with a 14-12 win on the road against Louisiana as a 10-point underdog. While they’re 0-2 against the spread in the past 2 games, Rice lost a tough 35-9 battle against crosstown rival Houston before bouncing back with a 38-17 win over Prairie View A&M at home. Regardless of their ATS record, the Owls are playing with a lot of confidence, and they have a respectable defense, unlike the 49ers right now.

The 49ers scored a 42-35 win over Monmonth of the FCS. While a victory is nice, Charlotte allowed an FCS quarterback to throw for 410 yards. Monmouth totaled 458 yards and 28 first downs against Charlotte, too, having their way in the stadium of the 49ers. Charlotte was also sloppy, turning it over three times, while forcing zero turnovers. If the 49ers play like that against the Owls, they’re going to get their doors blown off. Charlotte is 0-2 straight up and ATS in 2 games against FBS opponents, averaging just 7 points per game, while allowing 27 points on the other side. Expect more of the same on Thursday.

Rice vs Charlotte prediction: Rice -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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We have Big Ten Friday football as the Iowa Hawkeyes head to the state of New Jersey to play the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The conference isn’t going to throw its top tier teams out there on Fridays, but Iowa and Rutgers are both two middle-of-the-pack teams that should be on track for bowl games, and a game like this sometimes makes a huge difference in the final standings. I think this game is a suspicious spot where Vegas is trying to trap us, knowing that -2.5 dares us to take the favorite by a field goal, and I think they expect the majority of the public bettors to back Iowa on name recognition alone. (And probably the under also, because, well, it’s Iowa.) But I think the Scarlet Knights are a stronger team right now, and I am going to take the points with Rutgers.

Rutgers has a more talented roster than you would expect, and maybe the best that Greg Shiano has had there. The offensive line is veteran and good, and they have an experienced QB in Athan Kaliakmanis who can lead this team. The defense was a liability last year, as Rutgers lost multiple games in which they scored 30+ points, but they loaded up in the offseason to try to shore up that defense. Friday will be the first test to see where they really are. As for Iowa, they were supposed to have solved their perpetual and eternal offensive woes when they acquired South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski. He has been fine against the cupcakes, but he was dreadful against Iowa State, and that will probably push Iowa right back to being a run-and-punt offense. I think Iowa is still classic Iowa, but Rutgers might just have the firepower to pull off the upset, especially at home. I’ll take Rutgers +2.5.

Iowa vs Rutgers prediction: Rutgers +2.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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One of the early kickoffs in the B1G features the Maryland Terrapins vs the Wisconsin Badgers. In years past, this would be an obvious blow-out spot for the Badgers, but I don’t think that is true anymore. The Badgers have fallen way down in the conference pecking order, and they didn’t look like they belonged on the same field as Alabama last week. Sure, that was at Alabama, but Wisconsin was never at any moment in that game or even remotely competitive. They had to start a backup QB, so they were probably doomed from the start, but they may well go into the Maryland game in the same situation. That is one of several reasons that has me looking at the Terrapins here. I’ll take Maryland plus the points.

Billy Edwards Jr would love to start against his former team (he just transferred from Maryland to Wisconsin), but he is splitting reps with backup Danny O’Neil early in the week. Whichever guy starts, this is once again a run-first Wisconsin attack. Maryland, of course, wants to be a fast-paced, high-volume offense, even if they have struggled to find the personnel to run it effectively. They are working with a freshman QB in Malik Washington, but he has a high ceiling. He has plenty of receivers to work with, so if Wisconsin struggles to score or has to kick FGs instead of finding the end zone, Maryland could very well hang around here. The Terps’ primary liability is, of course, their defense, so that will probably be the story of the game. Still, I won’t be surprised if the Terps hang around in this one, even in a tough road environment.

Maryland vs Wisconsin Prediction: Maryland +10 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This is simply a play of numbers, we are not entirely sure that the Rebels should be laying points on the road to anyone. UNLV after all required theatrics to escape Idaho State in Week Zero to get away with a win, despite being a 30.5-point favorite. However, because the Rebels beat up on Sam Houston State and a UCLA team that is a shell of its former self, all is forgotten. This is an entirely different kettle of fish.

The Redhawks haven’t been in the market’s crosshairs since it was vying for the MAC title in December until Ohio ran buckshot on them and smashed them 34-3. The Hawks would win the Arizona Bowl with a 43-17 thumping of Colorado State but no one remembers that. Since then, Miami started off 0-2 but let us preface that they traveled to Wisconsin and Rutgers, two Big Ten sides to start off their campaign. UNLV is undefeated but again they were feasting on cupcakes and catching the Bruins at the perfect time. This could be the best team that the Rebels actually will face thus far this season and they are doing it on in hostile confines. Meanwhile the Redhawks are taking a step down against a Group of Five colleague. The fact that the Rebels aren’t even trusted to spot a field goal to the Redhawks in Oxford tell us that Miami is a serious threat here. Forget any points, take the Hawks outright.

UNLV vs. Miami Ohio prediction: Miami Ohio +115 (Money Line) available at time of publishing.

We’re still going to continue our attack on Notre Dame as all the pieces of the puzzle warrant such a move. Notre Dame has lost two back-to-back bitter defeats but Saturday’s last-minute loss to the Aggies was far more egregious than their opening week stumble at Miami. A missed extra point by way of a botched snap ultimately did the Irish in, that’s what you will hear. But what about the fact that Notre Dame’s defense gave up 40 points in South Bend? One can blame a loss on a moment, but the entire body of week throughout that contest illuminates why A&M went into Notre Dame Stadium and stole a win.

Nevertheless, the Irish are still ranked and still carrying that betting momentum from last season where they ran off 11 straight wins straight up and against the spread. They are still overvalued even if their last two showings were gut-wrenching to backers and Irish fans alike. Notre Dame has to get over last week’s debacle, Purdue meanwhile will be coming in with nothing to lose and everything to gain against a defense that is uncertain. No reason to be laying this kind of price with the Irish here, at all. Boiler up.

Purdue vs. Notre Dame prediction:  Purdue +24.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +24.

This one is all about situational betting. Let’s start with the Owls. Last week, Temple entered into what was described by some as “the mother of all look-ahead spots” when Oklahoma traveled to Philadelphia off a big win against Michigan before welcoming undefeated Auburn to Norman, this Saturday. Temple was priced pretty much as they are here and got rolled by the Sooners 42-3. Now, Temple is in yet another let-down spot priced at the same number as they were last week. Hint hint.

Georgia Tech comes in ranked for the first time this season, undefeated, and unbeaten against the spread. The profile of a team living up to the acclaim and hype that surrounded them in the pre-season. The Yellow Jackets took a huge step forward after knocking off Clemson last week in Atlanta, by way of a walk-off field goal that sent the crowd onto the field and the goalposts down to the ground. A win of that nature, against an opponent of Clemson’s calibre sets up the Jackets to come in flat this week against a side that just got smoked in a similar spot, a week ago. We keep going back to the number, it’s as if the market is daring you to fade Temple again, but we are not having it. The Owls keep this within range.

Temple vs. Georgia Tech prediction: Temple +23.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 23.

While there are plenty of games that should captivate college football fans across the nation on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games that should have your attention is a Big 12 vs AAC contest, where the East Carolina Pirates will host the BYU Cougars in a compelling clash that should produce plenty of fireworks. BYU has seemed to adapt to life without former quarterback Jake Retzlaff pretty well, as true freshman Bear Bachmeier has stepped in as the leader of this offense and has played mistake-free football over the first 2 weeks of the season. The Cougars have largely relied on their solid ground game (24th in EPA per rush) to lead the way against lesser competition, and Bachmeier hasn’t had to do all that much as a result. However, that will change this week in his first road start against an upstart opponent that is playing very well and boasts one of the more underrated environments in the sport. This is a massive step-up in class for the young quarterback, and I’m not sure how well he fares in this spot.

As for the hosts, the Pirates were a team that I was looking to back heading into the season, and I’ve largely been impressed with what they’ve accomplished thus far. NC State’s offense has proven to be quite good to this point, and East Carolina was able to limit CJ Bailey and the Wolfpack to just 24 points, with only 7 of those points coming in the second half. The defensive metrics for the Pirates aren’t staggering by any means, but it helps matters that BYU’s passing offense has been mediocre to this point (54th in passing success rate). The Cougars are also 98th in points per quality drive, which would give me real cause considering their first 2 games were against Portland State and Stanford. On the other side of the ball, the Pirates will likely have the better quarterback in this game, as Katin Houser has impressed this season, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards through 3 games while tossing 5 touchdowns to just 1 interception. I expect this one to be a close contest from start to finish, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Pirates won outright. BYU has the slightly stronger statistical profile, but the Cougars have yet to be tested. With that in mind, this game should be decided by one possession either way.

BYU vs East Carolina prediction: East Carolina +7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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One of the biggest games on the Week 4 college football slate comes in Bloomington, Indiana on Saturday, when the Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Indiana Hoosiers. This is a massive game in the Big Ten for a couple of teams that have an outside shot of disrupting the College Football Playoff picture, and it features a team that I am looking to back against a team I feel very comfortable fading.

Earlier this season, I faded Illinois against Duke and I would still make that bet again given the circumstances around that game. After all, Illinois won the turnover battle 5-0, was gifted points by the Blue Devils on numerous occasions and was able to take advantage of special teams miscues and untimely penalties from Duke in the victory. The Illini were still outgained in that game and Duke registered a 49% success rate (85th percentile) on an Illinois defense that is outside the top 100 in passing success rate and rate of quality drives allowed (CFB-Graphs). In steps an Indiana offense that has been rolling of late, as the Hoosiers sit inside the top 5 in passing success rate and lead the nation in points per quality possession (all drives across the opponents 40-yard-line). Fernando Mendoza certainly looks like one of the better quarterbacks in the nation to this point and the Hoosiers have plenty of skill position talent at their disposal against an Illini secondary that has certainly struggled in the lone game where they had to play a competent offense. The Indiana offensive line is also quite strong, and it should hold an edge in this game against an Illinois defensive front that has yet to face a unit of this caliber.

On the other side of the ball, I’m still not sold on Luke Altmyer and the Illinois passing attack. Despite the fact that the Illini receivers did step up against Duke, that performance has not aged particularly well, seeing as we just saw Tulane make quick work of the Blue Devils’ defense, to the tune of nearly 7 yards per play. The Illini have also struggled with generating explosiveness on offense, particularly in the passing game (69th in passing explosiveness), and that factors in games against Western Michigan and a very poor Western Illinois team. Indiana’s defense is an experienced veteran group and the Hoosiers will certainly be looking to generate turnovers against an Illinois side that has not thrown an interception or lost a fumble to this point in the season. Ultimately, I’m getting to back a great coach in Curt Cignetti, plus the better quarterback in this game at home. I’ll trust my instincts and lay the number with the Hoosiers.

Illinois vs Indiana prediction: Indiana -4 available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5

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These teams both have the capability to be very explosive, and we’ve seen as such in each of their first 3 games. However, this is a step-up in class for both sides on Saturday, and this game should be played at a lot slower of a pace on a down-to-down basis. After all, both of these teams are outside the top 100 in plays run per game, along with similar marks in plays per minute. Couple that with the fact that Indiana has been a particularly strong side in terms of controlling the clock, and all signs are pointing to a more deliberately played game in Bloomington. With that in mind, it’s not a shock that the market has come down a bit off the opener of 54 for this game. It’s not my strongest play on the board by any means, but I’ll take the under at the current number.

Under 53 available at time of publishing. Playable to 52.5

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane hit the road to battle the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater. Oklahoma State leads the all-time series 44-28-5, including 10 straight victories in the series since Sept. 11, 1999, including a 45-10 win last season on Sept. 14 in Tulsa. Oklahoma State is 6-1 against the spread in the past 7 meetings, with the under going 4-0.

Tulsa dropped a 42-23 game at home against Navy, failing to cover as a 14-point underdog as the over cashed. The under is 2-1 in 3 games to date, however. For Oklahoma State, the last time we saw it on the football field, it was blasted 69-3 at Oregon as a 28.5-point underdog. Oklahoma State will be champing at the bit to get back on the field after a bye win Week 3. However, Oklahoma State is 0-2 against the spread so far this season, and it’s hard to understand why the Cowboys are favored by 2 touchdowns in this one. The Golden Hurricane might not win, but a team which was dusted by 66 last time out has no business laying double digits to anybody. Take the Golden Hurricane plus the points in this one.

Tulsa vs Oklahoma State prediction: Tulsa +13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +12.5.

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This is a tough spot for the ‘Hogs, not only because it’s their second straight road game, but because this is the epitome of a sandwich spot. Arkansas took Ole Miss to the brink in Oxford last week and probably should have won, but a costly fumble near the red zone shattered the opportunity. Now, they have this odd non-conference road game against a Group of 5 team right before welcoming Notre Dame to Fayetteville next week. Meanwhile, Memphis coasted through a relatively easy opening 3 weeks despite playing on the road twice already, beating each of its opponents by at least 20 points.

Arkansas will obviously be a drastic step up in class compared to the quality of competition Memphis has seen to this point, but I still believe the Tigers are the side to bet at home on Saturday. Contrary to previous years, the Tigers have relied heavily on the run this season, and they’ve been good at it – ranking top 25 in PPA per rush outside of garbage time against their FBS opponents, as well as top 45 in rush success and explosiveness. This should be an area of opportunity for the Tigers in this matchup considering Arkansas is 93rd in opposing rush PPA and 135th in rushing success rate allowed outside of garbage time.

On the other side, the Razorbacks are extremely dynamic thanks to quarterback Taylen Green. However, he has 4 turnover-worthy plays in his last 2 games, and he hasn’t exactly been the most reliable when playing away from home since he arrived at Arkansas. Against a Memphis defense that generates havoc at a top 12 rate while holding opponents to fewer than 2 points per scoring opportunity, the Razorbacks could be met with some resistance when trying to finish drives on Saturday. 

I power rate this game close to 4 points, so I’m seeing a few points of value on the Tigers here. While I realize Arkansas is a step up in class compared to who Memphis has played to his point, playing power conference opponents have not intimidated the Tigers under Ryan Silverfield. In fact, they are 2-2 SU against Power Four teams over the last 4 years, and only 1 of those losses was by more than 7 points. Give me Memphis.

Arkansas vs Memphis prediction: Memphis Tigers +7.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7 (-120)

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The final chapter of the Battle for the Iron Skillet takes place on Saturday afternoon from Amon G. Carter Stadium on the campus of TCU. The rivalry between the Mustangs and the Horned Frogs is a storied one, dating back to 1915, but this will be the last time they meet on the gridiron for the foreseeable future due to conference realignment and changes in scheduling. SMU has taken three of the last five meetings, but TCU has controlled this series since the mid-1990s. The Horned Frogs are also in a revenge spot here, as the Mustangs took advantage of 5 TCU turnovers and 14 TCU penalties in a 66-42 win at SMU last year. 

The Mustangs benefitted from 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns in the win against the Horned Frogs last year, not to mention SMU running back Brashard Smith’s 127 yards and 3 touchdowns on 18 carries. Unfortunately for the Mustangs, Smith is now with the Kansas City Chiefs, and the defense lost most of its starters from a season ago. Given the roster change, I have a tough time seeing the Mustangs replicating that defensive performance on the road against a TCU team that is 7th nationally in turnover margin through 3 weeks. In fact, the penalty misfortunes in this matchup may now rest with the Mustangs, who are currently 125th in penalties per FBS game.

While the travel is minimal from SMU to TCU, this will be the second straight true road game for the Mustangs, and the atmosphere in a sold-out Amon G. Carter Stadium will be the most hostile SMU has seen this season. That’s not exactly reassuring for the Mustang offense, led by a quarterback in Keving Jennings who already has 8 turnover-worthy plays in 3 games – 2 of which came against an FCS opponent. Even with a great offensive line in front of him, I struggle to trust him in a road setting, especially against a TCU defense that has succeeded in generating havoc thus far.

TCU’s offense is going to be difficult to keep up with if SMU can’t protect the ball. For reference, the Horned Frogs are 6th nationally in PPA per play and 5th in yards per play, in addition to being much better than the Musangs at finishing drives with points. Give me the Horned Frogs to win and cover at home.

SMU vs TCU prediction: TCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-120).

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Tennessee was involved in perhaps the game of the year thus far, this season when they hosted arch rival Georgia in Knoxville and fell 44-41 in overtime. However, the loss was a gut punch for the Big Orange as they led the Dawgs 21-7 at one point, holding an eight-point lead late in the fourth quarter until on 4th and 6, Gunner Stockton found London Humprhies in the end zone and Georgia equalized. The Vols would get a chance to win the game in regulation but kicker Max Baxter would miss the forty-two yard field goal. Subsequently, Georgia would win it in extra time leaving 100,000 stunned.

Without question, the Vols have made their case as a playoff contender and a SEC hopeful. The loss made Tennessee look good and Smokey has improved to 3-0 on the year against the number, despite seeing a lot of action as the dog against Georgia. As a result, one can expect to lay a serious tag against a team like the Blazers here but this is the wrong time to do that. You see, Tennessee is still licking its wounds from last week and while it should win here without fail, it may get off to a slow start after enduring such a heartbreaker. This lends to the Blazers being able to hang around. Also, we can’t expect a four-quarter effort from the Volunteers either, as a road trip to Starkville is on the horizon against a likely undefeated and potentially ranked Mississippi State team. There are multiple ways for the Vols to not cover this lofty number and spotting nearly 40 points is too much at this point in the season. Whether it be a flat first half, the back-door, or Tennessee not caring about running up the score, the Blazers have several avenues to come in under the number. That’s the play here.

UAB vs. Tennessee prediction:  UAB +39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +39.

The Tulane Green Wave come crashing into Oxford to play the Ole Miss Rebels in a battle of two undefeated teams on Saturday. The Green Wave have already beaten two power conference opponents in this young season, dismantling Northwestern in Week 1, 23-3, before outlasting Duke last week despite being outgained, surrendering 5.8 yards per rush attempt, and racking up 100 penalty yards. While Jake Retzlaff was great for the Green Wave in the win over the Blue Devils, if those trends continue, the trip to the Grove may not be very friendly to Tulane.

As for Ole Miss, quarterback Austin Simmons is expected to return on Saturday, but the Rebels are in quite an interesting spot here. They’ve already played two conference opponents in Kentucky and Arkansas, beating both by just one score, and now they have this odd non-conference game against a regional “little brother” ahead of a massive showdown with LSU next weekend. It’s definitely a tricky situation, but I have a feeling Lane Kiffin will have his team ready to fight – not looking ahead to LSU. Kiffin knows just how tough Jon Sumrall and the Green Wave are considering his Rebels played against Sumrall’s Troy squad in 2022 and at Tulane in 2023.

This line opened around 13 points and was bet down. I get it; Tulane has beaten two Power Four teams, and quarterback Retzlaff has looked invincible at times – especially as a runner. However, I can’t get over how poorly the Green Wave played defensively since their impressive win over Northwestern. At South Alabama, they allowed over 250 yards of total offense on four second-half drives – three of which resulted in points. The Green Wave followed that up with a poor defensive showing last week against Duke, allowing more than 450 yards. This Ole Miss offense will be, by far, the most talented offense Tulane has seen to this point, and I expect the Rebels to name their score no matter who is playing under center on Saturday.

Don’t get me wrong, Ole Miss’ defense hasn’t been good, but there is a fairly wide talent disparity between these two rosters, and Tulane hasn’t shown much consistency offensively outside of what Retzlaff has been able to do as a runner. Against AAC competition, I expect Ole Miss’ front seven to look better than it did last week, and for the Rebels skill players to be too much to handle for the Tulane defense. Retzlaff won’t be able to do it alone in this one. ‘Rebs roll at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, improving to 14-5-1 ATS as a non-conference favorite under Kiffin.

Tulane vs Ole Miss prediction: Ole Miss Rebels -10.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -13.

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It’s not the most consequential games of the weekend in the Big 12, but we still have a marquee matchup on our hands in this extremely competitive conference when the Arizona State Sun Devils take on the Baylor Bears on Saturday. The Sun Devils have been a bit disappointing compared to preseason expectations to this point, as Kenny Dillingham’s team look lethargic in Week 1, before dropping a nonconference tilt against Mississippi State after initially rallying to take the lead in the final few minutes. Sam Leavitt was projected to be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation coming into the campaign, but this passing offense has yet to really get going (77th in passing success rate, 75th in EPA per dropback). This is somewhat of a surprise considering the returning production on this offense, including top wideout Jordan Tyson, who has already hauled in 24 receptions and 4 touchdowns to this point. In fact, it is the ground attack that has done the job for the Sun Devils, with Arizona State sitting inside the top 30 in rushing success rate and EPA per rush. However, this is still a team that has plenty of talent and has the ability to produce consistent offense, as shown in their Early Downs EPA (ranked 32nd per CFB-Graphs). That gives me confidence in their ability to put up points in this one.

As for the hosts, Baylor was a popular choice to win the Big 12 in the offseason, and while those dreams are very much still alive for Dave Aranda’s squad, the Bears desperately need to figure things out on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears defense is a whopping 124th in success rate allowed, 121st in net points per drive and 119th in Early Downs EPA on the season. Furthermore, the primary thing that gave the Baylor defense fits in its first 2 games was the ground attack of Auburn and SMU, which gives me confidence that the Sun Devils should continue to run the ball well in this one. On the other side of the ball, Sawyer Robertson has looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the nation thus far and the Baylor offense has been very potent, ranking inside the top 30 in passing success rate, points per drive, along with top 10 marks in Early Downs EPA and quality drives created. With that in mind, both teams should score plenty of points in a game that I expect to come down to the final few possessions. Rather than back a side in this game, I can only look toward the over on Saturday. 

Arizona State vs Baylor prediction: Over 59.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 60.5

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Let’s start with the Commodores, who have quickly become one of the hottest teams in college football. Vandy has been on a spree, covering their first three of the year. Vanderbilt has also earned a Top 25 ranking and sit undefeated in their exploits. Last week, Vanderbilt hammered South Carolina in Columbia, 31-7 making a Heisman hopeful in Lanorris Sellers look like an afterthought. Before we go any further, the Dores went from a five-point dog at open to a 27-point favorite in one week. That’s a sign of a massive overreaction and when we add in their stock is elevated, the propensity for an overlay is extreme.

For Georgia State, they drag their feet in at 1-2 with only a FCS victory to their name. In FBS play, the Panthers have been blownout by Ole Miss and Memphis by a combined margin of 101-23. On paper, they should be a snack for the Commodores, especially considering that Vandy is looking to avenge a loss last year against this very squad. GSU is also 0-3 against the number on the year, so that narrative incentivizes the market to back Vanderbilt here at an inflated number. Will Diego Pavia and company get their vindication? Sure but will they also cover a substantial number? That we’re not sold on, betting Vanderbilt here is simply laying too many points because of the contrasting trends both teams are projecting. Grab the points.

Georgia State vs.  Vanderbilt prediction:  Georgia State +27 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to number posted.