College football week six picks against the spread and straight up for every game this week. Get our free college football week six expert picks below. Get free college football picks every week of the season.

Thu, Oct 3rd - 7:30pm ET:
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama

Georgia Southern
South Alabama
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Georgia Southern -10.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 46.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

This number has moved down from 13 at the opening down to 10 at time of publication, which makes me like Georgia Southern even more. This is a Georgia Southern team that almost knocked off Minnesota on the road a couple of weeks ago. This isn’t the same Eagles team as last year. The Eagles haven’t had trouble scoring this fall, and are facing a Jaguars team that has only scored 26 points total over their last three games. The series has also been dominated by the Eagles. Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Back the Eagles to get the job done in this game.

Over Under Pick

The total in this game has also moved down — to 45.5 — and the play is with the under. This is a good chance for the Eagles defense to flex their muscles, and that is what will happen. The Eagles offense will score, but I don’t think it will be enough to push it over. Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games overall. Under is 7-2 in Eagles last 9 Thursday games. Back the under to be the play.

Fri, Oct 4th - 8:00pm ET:
Central Florida Knights @ Cincinnati

Central Florida Knights
Cincinnati
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Central Florida Knights -4.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 60.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The UCF Knights head north and west to Cincinnati to take on the Bearcats this Friday. Central Florida have had a solid season thus far. They boast a 4-1 record, and some very talented players. The very strong offense bull-dozed UConn 56-21 last week, which proves just how relentless the Knights can be. Even the strongest defenses struggle against this team. Though the Bearcats are a strong team, with a top 25 defense, I’m still skeptical as to whether they will be able to stand up to the Knights. A lot of people are concerned that Dillon Gabriel may serve as Florida’s weak link, considering it is his first conference start on the road. I personally think this wariness is unwarranted. Gabriel has shown his ability to buckle down and perform under stress on a number of occasions. Take his bounce-back against Pittsburgh for example. There’s no doubt that the Bearcats are a strong team, one that has shown huge improvement this season, but UFC is a different caliber. I have a feeling the Knights will take this one and cover.

Over Under Pick 

Both of these teams know how to score points. The Bearcats may have a strong defense, but they won’t be able to restrain UCF’s explosive offense. On top of this Cincinnati has shown their point scoring ability as well, and if their offensive line can improve their ability to protect Ridder, he should be able to put up some numbers against the Knights. Take the over here.

Sat, Oct 5th - 12:00pm ET:
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech

Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
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Oklahoma State -10.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 62.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are without their starting quarterback and they look lost out on the field. In their last game, they played two quarterbacks and it didn’t end well scoring only 16 points against the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners are not known as a defensive team, and I don’t see how Tech have much success scoring in this one. For the Cowboys they only have one loss, which came against the Longhorns, and are coming off a dominating win against Kansas State. The Red Raiders just don’t have enough offense to keep up, so back the Cowboys to win this game.

Over Under Pick

The total is moved down in this game to 62.5 and I think even at that number it’s still too high. The Cowboys have a good offense but in their last two games they haven’t scored above 30 points. They might get above 30 in this game but I don’t see them hitting 40. With the way the Red Raiders score, they won’t do enough to push the number up very much. Under is 5-1 in Red Raiders last 6 games overall. Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Back the under in this game.

Sat, Oct 5th - 12:00pm ET:
TCU @ Iowa State

TCU
Iowa State
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TCU +3.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 44.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

This might be one of the worst games to bet on the boards just because it’s still hard to know exactly what either of these teams are. The Cyclones went on the road as a two point favorite in their last game against Baylor and instead of cruising they struggled to score in the first half and a late comeback wasn’t enough as they lost by two. As for the Horned Frogs, just a couple of weeks ago they lost to SMU at home, although that loss might not be as bad as it seemed at time. They did bounce back in their last game to beat the Jayhawks and they have more confidence in this game which make me lean their way.

Over Under Pick

At home this year Iowa State has been involved in low-scoring affairs, which makes me lean that this game will head in the same direction. On the season, TCU is giving up only 18 points per game and this feels like a game where the Cyclones will struggle to score. Under is 8-2 in TCU last 10 games in October. Under is 16-5 in TCU last 21 road games. I would bet this game very light and it’s a lean, at best, on the under.

Sat, Oct 5th - 12:00pm ET:
Purdue @ Penn State

Purdue
Penn State
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Penn State -28.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 55.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

The Purdue Boilermakers have had a rough start to their 2019 season and could be in for an even rougher time as they hit the road for a match-up with the 12th-ranked Nittany Lions. Penn State is coming off an impressive one-sided victory over Maryland in their last game. Purdue is 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Penn State has covered the spread in four of their last six games. The Nittany Lions have also beaten Purdue is eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Purdue hasn’t covered in each of the last three head-to-head meetings. The teams haven’t faced-off since the 2016 season. Injuries have been mounting for the Boilermakers and that will have a major impact in this match-up. Back Penn State to get a very convincing win, and to cover the 28-point spread.

Over Under Pick

In three of their four games so far Purdue has been held to 31 points or less. Penn State has put up some big numbers so far this season. In only one of their four games so far did the Nittany Lions fail to score over 40 points. Penn State is averaging 50 points per game this season, while Purdue is averaging less than 30 points per game. Penn State put up 62 points in the last head-to-head meeting, as Purdue also pitched in 24 as the teams combined for 86 points. Take the over.

Sat, Oct 5th - 12:00pm ET:
Tulane Waves @ Army

Tulane Waves
Army
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Army +3.0 Point Spread
-105
Under 44.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

One of the more interesting mid-major games is this one between the Tulane Green Wave and the Army Black Knights. Both of these teams are sitting with a 3-1 record and Tulane is coming off a big win against the Houston Cougars. The Green Waves’ only game where they didn’t cover was the game they lost against the Auburn Tigers. The Black Knights strength is keeping the game on the ground and they are facing a Tulane team that is giving up 147.2 yards per game. I think the Black Knights will be able to move the ball with ease in this game. The Green Wave will lose their second game this season, and also fail to cover the spread. Back the Black Knights to get the job done.

Over Under Pick

This is a total I am staying far away from because I don’t like playing totals when military schools are involved. These are two good defensive teams giving up less than 18 points per game, and I think this game will take on a slower pace. Under is 4-1 in Green Wave last 5 road games. Under is 6-2 in Black Knights last 8 vs. AAC. This is a lean at best, but take the under to get the job done in this one.

Sat, Oct 5th - 12:00pm ET:
Iowa @ Michigan

Iowa
Michigan
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Iowa +3.5 Point Spread
-116
Under 47.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

A big Top 25 match-up at the Big House in Ann Arbor, as the 14th-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes, make a visit to face the 19th-ranked Michigan Wolverines. The Hawkeyes continue to perform well as they are coming off a 48-3 victory over Middle Tennessee. Michigan bounced back from their loss at Wisconsin with a strong 52-0 shutout of Rutgers. Iowa has won seven-straight games, heading into their toughest game yet. Iowa is 4-2 ATS in their last six games at the Big House. Michigan has struggled to cover the spread in their last eight games covering the spread just once. Michigan hasn’t beaten the Hawkeyes since a head-to-head meeting back in the 2012 season. Iowa will be looking for a third-straight victory over the Wolverines. Michigan at home will be tough to overcome, but the Hawkeyes are a good pick to cover.

Over Under Pick

The Iowa Hawkeyes defense has looked outstanding only allowing 8.5 points per game. Michigan rebounded nicely from their Wisconsin loss by scoring 52 points against Rutgers. Yet the Wolverines have struggled against ranked opponents and not to mention when they aren’t favored.  Over has been a strong play in seven of Iowa’s last eight games on the road. The most recent meeting between Iowa and Michigan was a one-point victory for the Hawkeyes on a walk-off field goal. This match-up should very well be a defensive battle which is why an under play isn’t a bad call.

Sat, Oct 5th - 12:00pm ET:
Oklahoma @ Kansas

Oklahoma
Kansas
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Oklahoma -32.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 67.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

I still haven’t figured out when to fade or bet the Jayhawks, so remember that with this pick. I was on the Jayhawks last week against the TCU Horned Frogs and they had no chance of covering the spread from the opening kickoff. They were absolutely dominated and that led to a 51-14 loss and I don’t see anyway they improve this week. The Sooners are coming off a 55-16 victory against the Texas Tech Red Raiders and in this game they will run up the score again. Sooners are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Back the Sooners to get the job done. This would be a three star, but games involving the Jayhawks haven’t been kind to me.

Over Under Pick

This total all comes down to how many points you think the Jayhawks are going to score, because the Sooners are going to have no issue scoring in this game. I think the Sooners should be able to put up at least 52 points in this game so it comes down to if the Jayhawks can score 14 points. I don’t think they will be scoring many more than 14 points, but they will do enough to push the game over. Over is 5-1 in Sooners last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 5-2 in Jayhawks last 7 games following a straight up loss. Back the over to get the job done.

Sat, Oct 5th - 12:00pm ET:
Kent State @ Wisconsin

Kent State
Wisconsin
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Wisconsin -36.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 57.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

Kent State will look to pull a major upset as they make a visit to Madison, Wisconsin for a match-up at Camp Randall Stadium. The Wisconsin Badgers have been on fire and have moved all the way up to 8th place in the rankings. The Golden Flashes have struggled on the road with just one victory in their last 17 games away from home. The Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Kent State has covered the spread in two of their four games so far this season. The Flashes are coming off an impressive victory over Bowling Green in their last game, while Northwestern gave the Badgers their biggest test of the season. Wisconsin should make easy work of the Flashes as they prepare for their big match-up with Michigan State next week. Take the Badgers to cover.

Over Under Pick

The last two games for Kent State saw enough points put up that both games finished with over totals. That includes a 62-20 victory for the Golden Flashes in their last game. Wisconsin had their second under the total in their four games so far this season. The under has been a good call in seven of Wisconsin’s last 10 games. The Badgers are averaging 48 points per game so far this season and should have a good chance of scoring that in this match-up. Wisconsin is the key to this game reaching over 57.5 total points. Back the over.

Sat, Oct 5th - 12:00pm ET:
Utah State Aggies @ LSU

Utah State Aggies
LSU
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Utah State Aggies +28.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 72.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

The undefeated LSU Tigers know better than to take the Utah State Aggies lightly. That’s one of the reasons why LSU will win on Saturday, but covering a 28-point spread? That is a tougher proposition against a legit Utah State squad. The Aggies, who hail from the Mountain West Conference, went 11-2 last year while winning the New Mexico Bowl. They are 3-1 in 2019 after bouncing back from an opening loss to still-undefeated Wake Forest with victories over Stony Brook, San Diego State, and Colorado State. Their dynamic offense, led by quarterback Jordan Love and receiver Siaosi Mariner, is averaging one minute and 51 seconds per touchdown drive. Utah State is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall, 9-4 ATS in its last 13 on the road, 7-0 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests, and 5-1 ATS in its last six against opponents with winning records. Four touchdowns should be enough for the AGGIES to cover.

Over Under Pick

Utah State is averaging 38.5 points per game; LSU is even better. The Tigers lead the nation in scoring offense at 57.8 points per game and they are first in the SEC (second in the nation) with 431. passing yards per game. QB Joe Burrow has thrown 17 TDs compared to just two INTs. The over is 6-1 in the Aggies’ last seven non-conference games. It is also 6-0-1 in the Tigers’ last seven overall, 5-2-1 in their last eight at home, 5-0-1 in their last six non-conference games, and 5-0 in their last five after scoring more than 40 points in their previous outing. Look for this one to go OVER the total.

Sat, Oct 5th - 12:00pm ET:
Maryland @ Rutgers

Maryland
Rutgers
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Maryland -13.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 54.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

The Maryland Terrapins could use a bounce-back in a big way as they have now dropped two straight games. That’s one better than Rutgers, which has lost their last three. Not only that, now the Scarlet Knights will be looking for a new direction after the firing of head coach Chris Ash. Maryland started the season with a bang, but haven’t had that same fire in recent weeks and both Rutgers and Maryland are coming off ugly shutout losses. The Terps are 0-5 ATS in their last five games away from home. Rutgers may have come up short in all but one game in their last nine games, the Scarlet Knights have done a nice job covering the spread in six of those nine games. Maryland has won two of the last three head-to-head meetings along with being able to cover in two of those three games. Rutgers should be able to put up a decent fight at home, but the Terrapins are a good pick to cover.

Over Under Pick

In the last three head-to-head meetings between Maryland and Rutgers, the teams have combined for an over total only once. That was two seasons ago in a 31-24 victory for the Scarlet Knights. Last season the Terps were able to not only cover the spread in their game but scored 34 points while Rutgers only managed seven points. Both teams have been up and down in scoring this season and that is what makes the over worth avoiding, especially after both teams failed to score points last week. Back the under.

Sat, Oct 5th - 12:30pm ET:
Boston College @ Louisville

Boston College
Louisville
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Boston College +6.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 61.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

The Eagles suffered their second loss of the season when they fell to Wake Forest last week by a final score of 27-24. This was only their first ACC defeat, so they are technically not out of the race to play in the ACC championship. However, it means they have to win out in their ACC schedule, so they cannot afford another setback. The Eagles have a top 15 rushing attack with AJ Dillon and getting him going early will be crucial. Louisville also has two losses, and also just one loss in conference play. They lost last week to Florida State 35-24. Just like Boston College, the Cardinals also have had a very good rushing attack. They average 228.5 yards per game. This is 21st in the country and will be the key to controlling the clock. The Eagles are 8-0 against the spread in their last 8 games played in October. With this being a must win for both sides, I think Boston College will be able to keep this one close and I will take them plus the points to cover.

Over Under Pick

Because both teams love to run the ball, I would lean to the under in this game. The total is set around 61, which I believe is too high. The Eagles score 31.6 points per game (59th) an allow 26.4 points per game (68th), so there is some concern that they could be torched when they do not have the ball. However, Louisville scores an average of 30.2 points per game (69th) and they allow 22.8 points per game (48th), so the same could be said about the Cardinals. The under is 7-2 in Louisville’s last 9 games as a favorite. The under is also 22-8-1 in Boston College’s last 31 games played in October. Because they both have had a ton of success running the ball, I believe this will shorten the game and keep the total under.

Sat, Oct 5th - 3:30pm ET:
Illinois @ Minnesota

Illinois
Minnesota
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Minnesota -14.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 56.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

Illinois will be looking for a bounce-back performance after having a bye week. Minnesota has been one of the biggest surprises so far this season as they have fought their way to a 4-0 record.The Gophers are on a six-game winning streak and looking for more while the Fighting Illini are 3-8 in their last 11 games. Illinois has struggled to win in their last three games against Minnesota, but have managed to cover the spread in two of those three games. Prior to last season’s meeting, the Gophers had won three-straight over the Illini. The Gophers have only lost once in their last five games at home and Minnesota is a good play to not only win this game, but to cover the 14-point spread.

Over Under Pick

Both Illinois and Minnesota are averaging over 30 points per game this season. The final total was over in two of the last three head-to-head meetings between the Illini and Gophers. Last season’s meeting alone showed that these teams can put up numbers bigger than what they are averaging. Illinois scored a 55-31 victory in that game, as the teams combined for 86 points. The over is 3-0 in Minnesota’s last three games. Take the over.

Sat, Oct 5th - 3:30pm ET:
Auburn @ Florida

Auburn
Florida
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Auburn -3.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 47.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

It will be a top-10 showdown between two 5-0 SEC rivals when the Auburn Tigers host the Florida Gators on Saturday afternoon. Auburn has been especially impressive, with a defeat of Oregon in addition to its 2-0 SEC record (beat Texas A&M and Mississippi State). Florida backup quarterback Kyle Trask has been decent in replacing Feleipe Franks, but he has not faced a strong defense (Kentucky, Tennessee, and Towson) and he got picked off twice by the Volunteers. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven against opponents with winning records. Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last five against the SEC, 2-6 ATS in its last eight at home against opponents with winning road records, and 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings between the two teams. Big money is coming in on the TIGERS, but as of Tuesday you could still get them at -3 and that spread should be small enough to cover.

Over Under Pick

Auburn has allowed more than 20 points only twice; high-powered Oregon (21) scored just seven after the first quarter and MSU (23) scored a meaningless touchdown in the final minute. To say the jury is still out on Trask and Florida’s offense would be a gross understatement. The under is 21-10-1 in the Tigers’ last 32 against opponents with winning records. It is also 4-1 in the Gators’ last five overall and 4-0 in their last four at home. Additionally, the under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the two teams. The UNDER is the play.

Sat, Oct 5th - 3:30pm ET:
Texas @ West Virginia

Texas
West Virginia
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West Virginia +11.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 60.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The big question in this game is how will Texas Longhorns play on the road? There is no question they are the better team in this matchup, but laying double digits on them on the road against a team that does have three wins is tough to do. In the Mountaineers’ last home game against NC State they were seven point underdogs but didn’t care about that and came out ahead 44-27. The Longhorns have struggled to cover the spread in conference games and I don’t think they will get it done in this game. The Longhorns are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight conference games. Back the home team to cover the spread in this game.

Over Under Pick

This total has moved up to 60 and the play is with the over. The Longhorns are a good offensive team are averaging 41.8 points per game but they have proven they will let teams stay close in shootouts. In their last game they gave up 30 points against Oklahoma State and a few weeks ago they gave up 45 points to the LSU Tigers. Over is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 home games. Over is 5-2 in Longhorns last 7 games following an ATS loss. The Mountaineers will score enough to push this game over.

Sat, Oct 5th - 3:30pm ET:
Bowling Green @ Notre Dame

Bowling Green
Notre Dame
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Notre Dame -45.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 60.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

It’s going to be a historic day for college football this Saturday. The Bowling Green Falcons will head to Indiana to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish for the first time ever. The Falcons started off strong this season, securing a win against Morgan State. Unfortunately, they have lost each of the three games they have played since. The Falcons’ debut against a team that is ranked as high as the Irish will surely be nerve-racking. They will definitely need to step up their game if they intend to turn this losing streak around on Saturday. The Irish have had a strong season. They enter this matchup with a 3-1 record, due largely in part to a strong, persistent defense. The Irish have taken out some very solid teams this season, and their only loss was a very close game against one of the best teams in the nation. The Falcons are proving themselves to be one of the worst teams playing college football right now, and I definitely don’t see them turning their losing streak around against the Irish. Notre Dame is going to take this one and cover.

Over Under Pick

The Falcons have played under in eight of their last nine games. On top of this, the under for the Irish is 5-2 in their last seven games. To be honest, I have a feeling that the majority of the points scored on Saturday will be at the hands of Notre Dame. They have a great defense right now, which has held some great teams at bay this season. On top of this, the Falcons offense is quite weak. I think the Irish will pull ahead early on and be less motivated to stack points. Basically, if this game goes over, it will be almost solely a result of Notre Dame’s performance. I’m confident that they will cover the spread, but I’m reluctant to say that this one will go over. It’s going to be close, but I would take the under.

Sat, Oct 5th - 3:30pm ET:
Air Force @ Navy

Air Force
Navy
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Navy +3.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 45.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Air Force Falcons go on the road as favorites to take on the Navy Midshipmen and this is a game where the home team has the value. The Midshipmen are coming off a loss against a very good Memphis Tigers team, but in the previous two games they won and covered the spread. As for the Falcons, they have a win and a loss in their last two games, but they have failed to cover the spread in both of those games. This has been a series that has been dominated lately against the spread by the Midshipmen. The Falcons are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings when on the road against Navy. Back the Midshipmen to get the job done.

Over Under Pick

Both of these teams are run first, and although they have been good on offense, they have also been good on the other side of the ball. On the season, Navy is giving up only 17.3 points per game and that’s even after what happened against Memphis. This total is a low number, but with both of these offenses playing a grind-it-out game it’s too high. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Navy. Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Back the under to get the job done.

Sat, Oct 5th - 3:30pm ET:
Virginia Tech @ Miami Florida

Virginia Tech
Miami Florida
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Virginia Tech +14.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 47.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Virginia Tech Hokies head to Miami this Saturday to take on the Hurricanes. Both teams are 2-2 right now. Miami opened their season with a 4 point loss against Florida State, and then lost to North Carolina by a field goal in the first two games of the season. They were able to pull of a win against Bethune-Cookman, but it was a shaky game to say the least. The Chippewas gave them a run for their money and it took a miracle to pull ahead and get a win. Virginia Tech will be looking to rebound off a loss at the hands of Duke. both these teams have had sloppy seasons so far, and I don’t see either team scoring high. With that said, the Hurricanes’ offense has been strong this season, having held its own against some solid squads. Their defense is also stronger than the Hokies’ in my opinion. I have a feeling the Hurricanes will win, but this one is going to be a close game. I expect the Hokies to cover.

Over Under Pick

Like I said above, I doubt either of these teams will be scoring high here. Both teams boast a disappointing 2-2 record, and I’m not impressed by either team’s quarterback. The fact of the matter is this is going to be a close game. 47 may be a low total, but I don’t see either team making it very far past 20 points. If I were you I would take the under on this one and expect a slow game.

Sat, Oct 5th - 3:30pm ET:
Baylor @ Kansas State

Baylor
Kansas State
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Baylor +1.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 50.0 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Baylor Bears and the Kansas State Wildcats face off on Saturday with the Wildcats currently sitting as one point favorites. The Wildcats probably would be pretty big favorites if it wasn’t for their performance in their last game. They went on the road against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, a team not known for their defense, and they could only put up 13 points. That scares me about what their offense will be able to do in this game against a Bears defense that hasn’t given up more than 21 points in this game. Back the Bears to get the job done and get a big win on the road.

Over Under Pick

The total in this game is set at 51 and it’s a lean to the under. The Bears defense has been good and this feels like it could be a good old Kansas State Wildcats defensive battle. Under is 7-1 in KSU last 8 games on fieldturf. Under is 8-2 in KSU last 10 games as a favorite. Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 conference games. Under is 6-2 in Bears last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Back the under to get the job done.

Sat, Oct 5th - 4:00pm ET:
Tar Heels @ Georgia Tech

Tar Heels
Georgia Tech
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Georgia Tech +10.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 48.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

This is a tough spot for the Tar Heels as they just went toe to toe with the Clemson Tigers. They played their best game of the year and probably should have upset the Tigers. A questionable call on a failed two-point conversion was the difference in the game. To be honest, the Tar Heels should have probably tied the game up instead and sent it to overtime. Regardless, UNC is now 2-3 on the year and goes on the road to face a poor Georgia Tech team. Tech is just 1-3 and were just embarrassed by Temple 24-2. The fact that they only scored 2 points is very concerning and this is a game that they need to be competitive in. At this point, it is hard to see Tech getting to 6 wins and playing in a bowl, but I do believe they will come out more focused with the game being in Atlanta and given just how poor their season has been thus far. In recent history, the Tar Heels are 3-7 against the spread against the Yellow Jackets in their last 10 meetings. This is a very small lean, but I will take the Yellow Jackets plus the points to cover in this ACC matchup.

Over Under Pick

The under is the only way I can look at this game. The total opened around 50.5, but has come down to around 48.5. This move mainly has to do with Georgia Tech’s inability to score the football. They average 13.8 points per game this season, which is dead last in the FBS. Other than Clemson, Tech has allowed just 15.3 points per game, so there has been some improvement since the opening week on the defensive side of the ball. The Tar Heels are averaging just 24.2 points per game, so it is not like they have the most explosive offense either. We saw their defense hold Clemson to 21 points, so I think they should have no trouble slowing down the Yellow Jackets anemic offense. I really like the under despite the line move and that is my play for this game.

Sat, Oct 5th - 4:00pm ET:
Northwestern @ Nebraska

Northwestern
Nebraska
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Nebraska -7.0 Point Spread
-105
Under 49.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

Both teams in this Big Ten West showdown are in need of a victory. The Northwestern Wildcats have lost two straight games again Big Ten foes. Nebraska wasn’t able to slow down Ohio State in their last game, as the Buckeyes blew the Cornhuskers right out of their own stadium. Northwestern is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Nebraska hasn’t had any better luck with a 1-4 ATS in their last five. Nebraska has covered against Northwestern in two of the last three head-to-head meetings. However, the Wildcats have won two of those three meetings. The Cornhuskers should be able to get not only a win at home but also cover the 7.5-point spread.

Over Under Pick

Northwestern has scored at least 31 points in the last two head-to-head meetings with Nebraska. The Cornhuskers came up three points short in last season’s game but were still able to put up 31 points. The over-under is 1-1-1 in the last three head-to-head meetings between the Wildcats and Cornhuskers. Points have been hard to come by for both teams in their last few games. That is why an under is a good pick.

 

Sat, Oct 5th - 4:00pm ET:
Troy @ Missouri

Troy
Missouri
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Missouri -25.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 66.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

Should the Missouri Tigers be giving even more than 25 points to the visiting Troy Trojans on Saturday? Well, Missouri already beat West Virginia by 31 points and took care of South Carolina by 20 on Sept. 21. The Tigers also have the benefit of being well-rested (they were off last week), whereas Troy fell 50-43 at home to Arkansas State this past Saturday. Arkansas State faced an SEC opponent of its own last month and got clobbered by Georgia 55-0. Missouri isn’t Georgia, but it does have former Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant at its disposal. Bryant has thrown for eight touchdowns and he has also gained 103 yards on the ground. Troy is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight October outings. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall, 4-0 ATS in their last four home games, 5-1 ATS after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game, and 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Sun Belt Conference. Go with MISSOURI.

Over Under Pick

The combination of Bryant’s arm and feet to go along with two effective running backs is a dangerous one for Missouri. Larry Rountree III (375 yards) and Tyler Badie (215 yards) have combined for six rushing TDs. As for Troy, the winning team in all five of its games has scored at least 37 points. The over is 4-1 in the Trojans’ last five overall, 15-2 in their last 17 against the SEC, 41-19 in their last 60 non-conference contests, and 4-0 in their last four after allowing more than 450 yards of offense in their previous outing. It is also 5-0 in the Tigers’ last five following an off week. Expect this one to go OVER the total.

Sat, Oct 5th - 4:30pm ET:
Arizona Wildcats @ Colorado

Arizona Wildcats
Colorado
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Colorado -4.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 63.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

Arizona got the win last week against UCLA, but I thought they would be more impressive. Khalil Tate didn’t play and might miss this one too. In his absence freshman Graham Gunnell was sharp. He does not have the running ability of Tate, few quarterbacks do, but you wonder if they might be better off with Tate in a more diverse role. It was just one game but we will see what Gunnell is made of on the road in this one. Colorado was off last week after a nice win at Arizona State. The Buffaloes and the Wildcats are the only teams in the PAC 12 South without a loss so there is little more at stake than expected. Colorado is not strong on defense but they have a good passing game and that will put pressure on the freshman QB to keep up. They are short favorites at home and I like them in that spot. Take Colorado.

Over Under Pick

I can see this game going a lot of ways. It could be a back-and-forth affair but with Mel Tucker as the coach if the Buffs get the lead they could squeeze it a little too. Colorado has gone over in three of four but one was in overtime and they have been playing catchup a lot. In this one, they might be able to dictate more. Take the under.

Sat, Oct 5th - 7:00pm ET:
Georgia @ Tennessee

Georgia
Tennessee
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Tennessee +25.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 51.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

It is true that the Tennessee Volunteers are terrible, but they at least went to overtime with a BYU squad that defeated Southern Cal (ranked 24th in the nation at the time) one week later. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano will probably be back in there because freshman backup Brian Maurer was less than impressive in the second half of Tennessee’s recent loss to Florida. Guarantano is by no means spectacular, but he at least has plenty of experience and threw 12 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions last season (two TDs, zero INTs against the Georgia Bulldogs). The undefeated Bulldogs did enough to scrape past Notre Dame at home two weeks ago, but their offense struggled to get into a rhythm. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its last four against opponents with losing records. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head matchups. Take TENNESSEE, but in-conference spreads that are this high are always dangerous.

Over Under Pick

Georgia is a top-10 defense in the nation, as Notre Dame — and others — have found out the hard way. The Bulldogs have surrendered 40 total points in four contests. Part of that is due to a ground-heavy offense led by D’Andre Swift that shortens games and keeps opposing offense off the field. The under is 4-1-1 in the Bulldogs’ last six overall and 5-0 in their last five after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game. It is also 4-1 in the Volunteers’ last five against the SEC and 13-5 in their last 18 following an off week. Go with the UNDER.

Sat, Oct 5th - 7:30pm ET:
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss

Vanderbilt
Ole Miss
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Ole Miss -7.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 62.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

A non-Power 5 opponent proved to be just what the doctor ordered for the Vanderbilt Commodores, who scraped past Northern Illinois 24-18 last weekend. They had previously lost to tougher competition in Georgia, Purdue, and LSU, all by between 18 and 28 points. Unfortunately for the ‘Dores, they now return to the big time with a date at the Ole Miss Rebels. Ole Miss is coming off consecutive setbacks against then-No. 23 California and now-No. 1 Alabama, but the game against Cal went down to the final play and the Rebels also boast a win over SEC rival Arkansas (31-17). Freshman John Rhys Plumlee is expected to get more playing time after doing some of everything against the Crimson Tide. He threw two touchdown passes while rushing for 109 yards and an additional score. Starter Matt Corral was out due to bruised ribs. The Commodores are 0-5 ATS in their last five overall and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight October outings. Pick OLE MISS with a fair amount of confidence.

Over Under Pick

Corral should be back, so Ole Miss has a bit of a QB quandary on its hands. Keep in mind this is a team that lost a 15-10 affair with Memphis earlier in the season. Vanderbilt quarterback Riley Neal has thrown just four touchdown passes through four contests. The under is 4-1 in the Commodores’ last five against the SEC and 5-1 in their last six following a win. It is also 4-1 in the Rebels’ last five against the SEC. Additionally, the under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between the two teams. Lean toward the UNDER.

Sat, Oct 5th - 7:30pm ET:
Michigan State @ Ohio State

Michigan State
Ohio State
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Michigan State +20.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 49.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

This is a huge primetime match-up between the 25th-ranked Michigan State Spartans and the 4th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. The Spartans will be looking to stay ahead of the game in the Big Ten East, while the Buckeyes will be looking for their fourth consecutive victory over MSU. Michigan State got all they could handle against Indiana in their last game. In contrast, Ohio State pounded Nebraska on the road. The Spartans have covered the spread in two of their last seven games. The Buckeyes have covered in four of their last five games. In the last 10 head-to-head meetings between Michigan State and Ohio State, both teams have covered five times. The Spartans are a 20-point underdog, but that has some value. The last time the Spartans faced the Buckeyes as a big underdog, MSU ultimately came up short, but still covered in a one-point loss. The Buckeyes should ultimately get the win, but the Spartans are a good call to cover.

Over Under Pick

In the last three meetings between the Buckeyes and Spartans, the final total was under in each of those games. Last season’s meeting was a one-point game heading into the fourth until the Buckeyes pulled away for a 26-6 victory. The year before that, the Buckeyes rolled all over Michigan State in a 48-3 victory. Ohio State is averaging 53 points per game, while Michigan State is averaging nearly 30 points per game this season. It will be a strong defense versus strong offense in this match-up. However, you can’t count out the other side of the ball for both teams. Over 49.5 is a good play.

Sat, Oct 5th - 8:00pm ET:
Pittsburgh Panthers @ Duke

Pittsburgh Panthers
Duke
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Duke -5.0 Point Spread
-111
Under 49.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

Duke got a huge win on the road last week, blowing out Virginia Tech on Friday night. In contrast, the Panthers struggled against Delaware, beating them 17-14. The Delaware game was a sandwich game of sorts because Pitt was coming off a huge home win against UCF the week before and now they hit the road to play an ACC team. The Panthers are 0-1 in the ACC, so they cannot lose another conference game. Duke is 1-0 in conference and look to be the front runner for the ACC Coastal Division. Duke has a much better offense, averaging 33.5 points per game, while Pitt is averaging 19.2 points per game. Coming off the blowout win over the Hokies will give Duke confidence that they can compete for an ACC championship and I like the Blue Devils to win this game comfortably and cover the spread.

Over Under Pick

The under is where I lean seeing how these teams have been able to play defense. Throw out the game against Alabama and the Blue Devils have allowed 13.7 points per game. The Panthers have allowed an average of 21 points per game, which includes the game where they slowed down UCF enough to get that upset win. The under is 12-5 in Duke’s last 17 conference games and 23-9-2 in their last 34 games played in October. The under is also 12-1 in Pitt’s last 13 road games and 16-5 in their last 21 games as an underdog. Just like they did against UCF, I think the Panthers defense will be ready to play and will slow down the Blue Devils to keep this game under the total.

Sat, Oct 5th - 8:00pm ET:
Temple @ East Carolina

Temple
East Carolina
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Temple -11.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 47.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

Temple has gotten off to an interesting start. They have two Power 5 wins but lost at Buffalo as a two-touchdown favourite. This is their first conference game so they are looking to show teams like UCF and Cincinnati that they are going to be a factor in the AAC East. In the Buffalo loss QB Anthony Russo had three interceptions. As long as he keeps that under control the Owls should be able to get a win at ECU. Their defense is very good too. In those two Power 5 wins, they only gave up 13 points on defense. ECU has a winning record but two of their three wins are of the FCS variety. They got their first FBS win last week winning at Old Dominion.  A winning record looks good but this team has a lot of ways it can improve. They have been bad on offense (21ppg) but better than expected on D (22ppg). They are significant dogs at home and I don’t like them to upset here. Take Temple.

Over Under Pick

Temple is stingy on defense. They are 2-2 on totals this season but East Carolina has played 5 straight Unders to start the season. You have to think a trend like that will reverse itself at some point and the total here is kind of low but the Under still looks good to me. I am expecting Temple to dominate but they are not going to run up the score.

Sat, Oct 5th - 8:00pm ET:
California @ Oregon

California
Oregon
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California +17.5 Point Spread
-111
Under 46.0 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

This is a big game in the PAC 12 North. Oregon is the only team that is still undefeated in conference play but Cal already has a big win against Washington. Whoever wins this one will like their positioning going forward. Cal did not look great losing at home to Arizona State last week. The defense is the strength of the team but they still need some offense. I am also thinking that this team is more comfortable in underdog roles, like they will be here. Oregon’s only blemish on the season was their opener against Auburn. This will be their toughest test since then and this team is a little different than the Oregon teams that were strong just a few years back. The defense has been really stout this season and with a NFL top pick at QB they are more pass heavy. That kind of feeds into the strength of the Cal defense though. Oregon wins but I love Cal plus the points.

Over Under Pick

Oregon has not given up more than 7 points in any of its last three games, the last two of which finished well below the total. With Cal predicted to be sharp defensively that is where I am leaning for this one. Both defenses are good and Cal will try and slow down things as much as they can on the road. The total is already kind of low so get to it soon.

Sat, Oct 5th - 9:00pm ET:
Oregon State @ UCLA

Oregon State
UCLA
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Oregon State +5.5 Point Spread
-111
Over 65.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

Oregon State is the worst team in the PAC 12, but they almost got a really nice win against Stanford last week. Almosts are not that interesting, but in this case it would have netted you a cover. Beavers head coach Jonathan Smith is a strong offensive mind and he has the team scoring 34ppg. The defense still needs a lot of work, however, if they can get to that total they have a great chance of winning on the road against a UCLA team that is still a question mark. After their epic comeback against Washington State fading the Bruins seemed like a sound strategy. They did lose at Arizona last week but you might have gotten a push depending on when you got down. The offense came back to reality scoring just 17 points and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is questionable so another fade might be in order. Both choices will challenge your better senses but I will take the points. Take the Beavers.

Over Under Pick

Neither team plays strong defense so the over is the first inclination here. That would fly somewhat in the face of seasonal results though as UCLA has 4 under and the Beavers are 50/50 against the total. Last year’s total went over and that might be the best indicator we have. There were six straight unders before that in the series but those were under different regimes. Take the over.

Sat, Oct 5th - 10:30pm ET:
Boise State @ UNLV

Boise State
UNLV
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Boise State -21.5 Point Spread
-111
Over 55.5 Game Totals
-111

Against The Spread Pick

The Boise State Broncos will head to Vegas this weekend to take on UNLV. The Broncos have had a history of beating the Rebels, having bested them the last four times the team have met. The Broncos are currently undefeated, and will be thrusting forward with their unstoppable intensity. The Rebels, on the other hand, are showing signs of weakness this season. They are currently are 1-3, having won their first game before losing three in a row. Hank Bachmeier leads Boise State with 1,190 passing yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions. Robert Mahone is Broncos’ leading rusher with 288 yards and four touchdowns. CT Thomas is their leading receiver, with 283 yards and three touchdowns. UNLV’s Armani Rogers has thrown for 393 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Rebels’ leading rusher is Charles Williams with 472 yards and six touchdowns. Randal Grimes leads The Rebels in receiving with 175 yards and one touchdown. UNLV is having a terrible season, while the Broncos are crushing everyone in their path. They should have no problem winning this game and covering. 

Over Under Pick

The Broncos have been going over in most of their games against teams with winning records, and UNLV has been going over rather consistently as well, especially in games following a loss. The Broncos are just too good this season. I have no doubt that they will bulldoze through the Rebels, and amass a lot of points. UNLV has a weak offense, and I don’t see them scoring much. Having said that, the Broncos are hot this year, and I think they will push this one over. Take the Over.

Sat, Oct 5th - 10:30pm ET:
Washington @ Stanford

Washington
Stanford
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Washington -15.0 Point Spread
-111
Over 51.5 Game Totals
-111

Against the Spread Pick

Washington got a nice win last week doubling up USC 28-14 at home. That makes three straight wins and covers for a team whose only loss this season was by a single point. The key will be to keep winning until they get Oregon at home in a couple of weeks. They are on the road in back-to-back weeks starting with Stanford, but there is no reason they can’t keep the good times rolling. QB Jacob Eason seems to be getting more and more comfortable. At Stanford they are having to adjust to a new normal. They escaped Corvallis with a road win over Oregon State and it looks like once again they are going to be playing without QB KJ Costello. The offensive line and run game is well below previous standards – they are 112th running the ball. They just aren’t going to be able to keep up with Washington, even as a big underdog. Take the Huskies.

Over Under Pick

Stanford has three overs in five games this season, oddly all on the road. They are at home here but the thing is I don’t trust their offense. Washington is not super explosive this season though they have played three overs in five games too. I think you have to correlate this with the side above. With Washington predicted to cover they are going to have to score some points. Take the over but I am not heavy on it.

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