College Football Week 3 Picks & Predictions For 2019

Against the Spread Pick

Both teams played to a win in week two and enter this ACC matchup 2-0 on the year. The Tar Heels defeated Miami 28-25 and Wake Forest took care of Rice 41-21. North Carolina have already surprised a ton of people by winning their first two games and it has started with their freshman quarterback, Sam Howell. Howell threw for 274 yards against the Hurricanes, and had two touchdowns with zero interceptions. The Wake Forest quarterback, Jamie Newman, threw for 312 yards against Rice, had three touchdowns and also no interceptions. The only problem with Newman is that he has not been tested so far this season and I think he could take a huge step back against an opponent that is proving to be a tough out. UNC is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus an opponent with a winning record, while the Demon Deacons are 3-7 ATS in the same category. What Mack Brown is doing so far calls for some attention, and therefore I like the Tar Heels to win this game as a small underdog or at the very least, cover the spread.

Over Under Pick

The total is very high in this game, sitting at 66.5 at most shops. Both defenses are allowing an average of 28 points or less, and with this being a conference game, I like the under as the play. That said, this is a game I would bet very small or not at all because both teams have shown the ability to score in bunches. Wake Forest did not exactly open their season with two great opponents, so I believe their offense will be slowed down.

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Against the Spread Pick

Kansas is coming off an embarrassing loss to Coastal Carolina in which they scored just 7 points. Boston College is now 2-0 on the season after crushing Richmond in week two, 45-13. The Eagles are huge favorites in this game, but with their ability to run the ball, they could easily turn this game into a blowout early. The Jayhawks are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games against an opponent with a winning record. They are also 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 road games. Considering they were out-gained by Coastal Carolina, I will lean to Boston College to crush Kansas from the opening kickoff. It is a small play on the Eagles because 21.5 is a ton of points to lay.

Over Under Pick

I have to lean to the under in this contest because Kansas is involved. They had a total of 280 yards, which again led to just 7 points. Boston College lit up the scoreboard with their ability to run the ball, but running the ball can lead to burning the clock. The under is 23-11 in Kansas’ last 34 road games. I do not see how or where the Jayhawks will find points to keep up with the Eagles, so the under is my play here.

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Against the Spread Pick

The Pittsburgh Panthers (1-1) pay a visit to Happy Valley for a face-off with rival Penn State (2-0). The Nittany Lions are 4-2 ATS in their last six games, along with a 5-1 record in their last six games. Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games, with a 1-4 record in their last five games. The Panthers are 2-5 against Penn State in their last seven head-to-head meetings. The Nittany Lions pounded the Panthers in last season’s meeting. Pittsburgh is 1-1 this season after dropping their season opener against Virginia but rebounded for a win over Ohio. Penn State is 2-0 after a pair of impressive wins over Idaho and Buffalo. Pittsburgh’s last victory over Penn State came in the 2016 season. The Nittany Lions have really been scoring points and will be hard to beat. As 17 point favorites, this game just doesn’t seem like a game where Penn State will be able to cover, as Pitt is built on defense under head coach Pat Narduzzi. Penn State will get the win, but I like Pittsburgh to cover.

Over Under Pick

The over has been a very good call in Penn State games, as 12 of the Nittany Lions last 18 games had over totals. However, for Pittsburgh, each of their last six games all had under totals. Penn State won last season’s meeting 51-6 The rate Penn State has been scoring points, and with an over-under of 54 in this match-up, the over is a good call.

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Against the Spread Pick

Head coach Jeremy Pruitt and the Tennessee Volunteers will be trying to avoid the program’s third 0-3 start in 31 years when they host the Chattanooga Mocs of the FCS on Saturday afternoon. The Volunteers have stumbled out of the gate with a stunning loss to heavy underdog Georgia State before falling in double-overtime to visiting BYU a week ago. The latter was at least a more respectable performance. They appeared on the verge of breaking into the win column last week before allowing a 60-yard pass to set up a tying field goal at the end of regulation. Tennessee is 38-2-2 all-time against Chattanooga, which is coming off a 41-20 loss at Jacksonville State after knocking off Eastern Illinois 24-10 in its season opener. The Mocs were overwhelmed in last week’s setback, giving up 509 total yards and allowing nationally-ranked Jacksonville State to hold the ball for over 12 minutes in the final quarter. Expect TENNESSEE to bounce back in convincing fashion.

Over Under Pick

Chattanooga returns all five starters on the offensive line along with quarterback Nick Tiano, who will be looking for wide receiver Bryce Nunnelly–an FCS preseason All-American who has 14 catches for 187 yards and a touchdown after racking up 79 receptions for 1,237 yards and seven scores last season. True freshman Ailym Ford leads the Mocs in rushing after piling up 127 yards and a score last week. Vols junior running back Ty Chandler bounced back from a slow opener by rushing for 154 yards on a career-high 26 carries. Go with the OVER.

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Against The Spread Pick

One of the best matchups of the weekend that no one is talking about is on Saturday between Kansas State and Mississippi State. The Wildcats have looked good to start the season, but they haven’t been really tested in any way. The same can be said about Mississippi State, but they have played a little harder competition. The Wildcats’ offense has a lot of confidence right now and the Bulldogs’ defense hasn’t proven to be very good so far. I think the Wildcats offense can do enough to keep them in this game. Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Back the Wildcats to cover the spread in this game.

Over Under Pick

These are both offenses who have run up the score so far this year. The Wildcats are averaging 50.5 points per game while the Bulldogs are averaging 38 points. The Bulldogs defense is also giving up 21 points per game. Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games overall. Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 non-conference games. Back the over and this is a strong play too.

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Against the Spread Pick

Both teams come into this game with a record of 1-1. Last week, Furman had Georgia State on the ropes before losing that game 48-42. Virginia Tech beat Old Dominion 31-17. The Hokies have not looked good this season and the close game against the Monarchs was more of the same. They do rank as the 25th best team in the country when passing the ball, averaging 308 yards through the air per game. The Paladins were torn apart by the Panthers and gave up a 20-3 lead. The spread is set at 21 and as much as I want to take the Hokies, I just cannot trust them. This is a game I would probably stay away from, but it would be a lean to Furman to cover and take advantage of a poor Virginia Tech team.

Over Under Pick

The total is set at 64.5 and I have to lean to the under here. The Hokies have shown they like to keep games close, but also their offense is not very good at all. They scored only 31 points against Old Dominion. Furman has shown they can put up points, but they should be facing a better defensive team in this game. This game could easily be a letdown because Virginia Tech is involved, so I will lean to the under as the play.

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Against the Spread Pick

Arkansas State got their first win of the season when they dismantled UNLV last week. Georgia cruised to a 2-0 record by crushing Murray State 63-17. Even though Georgia dominated the Racers, they gave up a few huge plays and their back-up quarterback threw a pick six. This allowed the Racers to cover. Georgia will likely win this game by several scores, but laying 33.5 points is way too much in a game that could see a back door cover. Also, keep in mind that Georgia may be thinking ahead to their showdown with Notre Dame in week 4, so that could also lead to some mistakes that would allow the Red Wolves to score. I expect Jake Fromm and some of the other starters to get pulled sometime in the second half, so I would lean Arkansas State plus the points.

Over Under Pick

The total is set at 57 and I feel that is way too low. Last week there was a combined 80 points scored in Georgia’s game and 60 in the game that the Red Wolves played. While I do not think the total will combine for 80, I do believe that 57 is not too much to ask for. I could see Georgia easily putting up 45+ and the Red Wolves scoring once or twice late in this ball game. I like the over to be the play with medium confidence.

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Against The Spread Pick

The Mountaineers and their fans are not accustomed to losing but it’s something they better get used to because a lot of losing is coming their way. They started their season beating James Madison, but in their last game they took on Missouri and the offense really struggled to score only seven points and it led to a loss. The NC State Wolfpack are the more complete team, and they should win this game in blowout fashion. Mountaineers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Mountaineers are 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Mountaineers are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Mountaineers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC. This is one of the best games on the board. Back the Wolfpack to win this game and cover the spread.

Over Under Pick

The Mountaineers struggled to score against the Tigers in their last game, and in this game that will be the case again. The Wolfpack have given up only six points so far this season and I don’t see the Mountaineers scoring more than 10 points in this game. Under is 4-0-1 in Mountaineers last 5 vs. ACC. Under is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 non-conference games. Under is 4-1-1 in Mountaineers last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 games in September. Under is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 games on fieldturf. Back the under to cash in this game.

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Against the Spread Pick

The Eastern Michigan Eagles (1-1) from the Mid-American Conference make a visit to Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois for a match-up with the Fighting Illini (2-0) of the Big Ten. EMU is coming off a tough road loss at Kentucky in their last game, while Illinois has picked up a pair of wins over Akron and UConn. The Illini are without key running back Mike Epstein, but they have still found a way to win their first two games. The Eagles are 6-3 in their last nine games, while the Illini are 6-14 in their last 20 games. Week three has been a tough week for Illinois in the last few seasons, where they haven’t won a game in this week in their last six tries. EMU is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games on the road. I like Illinois to get the win, but the Eagles should cover.

Over Under Pick

In five of Eastern Michigan’s last six games the under was a good play. The total has gone under in five of Illinois last six games played in September. Both of Illinois’ games so far this season saw under totals. Eastern has had one over and one under total in their two games thus far. A slight lean to the under in this match-up is a good call.

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Against the Spread Pick

The Maryland Terrapins have been one of the most explosive teams to start the 2019 season, as they have scored some huge wins under first-year head coach Mike Locksley. A road trip for the 21st-ranked Terps to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia to face the Temple Owls should be a true test for this team. The Owls are 1-0 to start the season and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. While Temple is 2-7 in the last nine head-to-head meetings with Maryland, the Owls got the better of the Terrapins last season. However this is a different Terps team, and they are a dark horse to watch in the Big Ten this season. Back Maryland to get the win and to cover.

Over Under Pick

The under was a good call in last season’s meeting between the Terrapins and Owls, which saw Temple get the win 35-14. The total has gone over in four of Maryland’s last five games. and in four of Temple’s last six games. Both teams are averaging over 50 points this season and Maryland put 63 up on Syracuse which was ranked heading into that game. This should be a battle, but Maryland has a lot of things good right for them offensively. Take the over.

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Against the Spread Pick

After back-to-back home games to start the season, the Ohio State Buckeyes head on the road for their first Big Ten game of the season as they visit Memorial Stadium in Bloomington. Like the Buckeyes, Indiana won their first two games. Keeping the symmetry going, both teams are 1-1 ATS this season. The Buckeyes are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games. The Hoosiers are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games. Both teams have had good production on the offensive side of the ball and that will make for an intriguing game. Justin Fields has had a big start to his Buckeye career and should be in for an equally big day on Saturday. The Buckeyes are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against the Hoosiers. However, Ohio State has too many weapons, though Indiana should be able to score, the Buckeyes are a good pick to cover in this one.

Over Under Pick

The Buckeyes and Hoosiers have both scored at a pretty high rate in their respective games so far this season. The total has gone over in seven of Ohio State’s last nine games on the road. Over was also a good play in two of the last three head-to-head meetings between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers. Last season’s meeting saw the teams combine for 75 points in a 49-26 Buckeyes victory. Ohio State has scored 49 points in each of the last two meetings. The over is a good play in this one as both teams are averaging over 30 points per game this season.

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Against the Spread Pick

The Yellow Jackets enter this game 1-1 after beating South Florida last week 14-10. The Citadel lost to Elon last week 35-28 to fall to 0-2. Tech played better in week two, but honestly it would have been hard not to improve on how they they did at Clemson in week one. The offense still has not looked great, only producing 257 yards and the passing was particularly poor with only 76 yards through the air. Defensively they allowed 261 yards, so a massive improvement from the Clemson game. The Citadel is a FCS team, so if we do not see improvement from Georgia Tech here, it should raise even more questions. I like Georgia Tech to win this game with no issue, but there is no way I am laying basically four touchdowns with an unproven team. I will take The Citadel to cover as a very small lean.

Over Under Pick

Seeing how Tech has played the first couple of weeks, my lean is to the under. They have had trouble scoring and while scoring against The Citadel should be no problem, I cannot trust the Yellow Jackets to put up enough points to push this one over. The Citadel may score a touchdown or two, but they will be outmatched in this game from the opening kick. It is a very small lean, but the under would be my play.

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Against the Spread Pick

With service academies like Air Force you know what you are going to get, toughness and lots of running. The Falcons did not play last week so their only result to date was an easy win over Colgate. They covered and the game went over but it is hard to have learned too much from a game like that. I am surprised that these teams have actually never met given that they are in the same state. This will be a test but they had extra time to prepare. Colorado has to be feeling good after upsetting rival Nebraska last week. Not only was it an emotional game but they showed that there is more to the team than Montez to Chenault – just 31 yards from that duo. Nebraska ran on them and they know the Falcons will do the same thing. They have not had extra time to prepare but they are fairly stout in the trenches and coach Mel Tucker is familiar with the option facing off with GT regularly while he was at Georgia. Take the Buffs.

Over Under Pick

There is a chance that Colorado is super ready for the option and really limits the Falcons, however, I doubt that. More like Air Force is able to bust some plays and have success even in a loss that might not be close. That is the scenario I am banking on. Air Force gets to 21 points while the home team is almost double that. Take the Over.

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Against The Spread Pick

The New Mexico Lobos and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish face off on Saturday in week three, but both of these teams are only playing in their second game. The Lobos played Sam Houston State in their opener and the big positive was they put up 39 points, but their defense really struggled giving up 31 points and that is concerning. The Fighting Irish looked good to start the season, but I think this many points is just too many.  Notre Dame are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Lobos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September. Take the points with the underdogs.

Over Under Pick

The total in this game is set at 63 and the play is with the over. The Fighting Irish are going to have a great chance to score points with the way the Lobos defense played in game one. I also am not sold on the Fighting Irish’s defense yet. Over is 6-0 in the Lobos’s last 6 non-conference games and 5-0 in their last 5 games in September. Also, the Over is 4-0 in New Mexico’s last 4 vs. INDEP. On the other side, the Over is 4-1 in the Fighting Irish’s last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Back the over to get the job done.

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Against The Spread Pick

The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense has been going wild and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane aren’t going to be able to keep in this game. The Cowboys are currently averaging 54 points per game while Tulsa is only averaging 20.5 points. The Cowboys like to be involved in shootouts, and the Golden Hurricane just doesn’t have enough to keep this game close. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Oklahoma State are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Back the Cowboys to get the job done in this game.

Over Under Pick

This game is all going to come down to how many points Tulsa can score because the Cowboys are going to get theirs. This feels like a game where the Cowboys should score at least 50, so Tulsa won’t have to score a ton to get the total over. The Over is 5-1 in Golden Hurricane last 6 vs. Big 12. Also, the Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games overall 4-1 in the last 5 games following an ATS win and 4-1 in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Back the over to get the job done.

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Against the Spread Pick

Both teams cruised to easy wins in their week two games. Alabama beat New Mexico State 62-10 and South Carolina beat Charleston Southern 72-10. This will be the first SEC game for both sides and should at least be more competitive for more than a half. The Gamecocks quarterback, Ryan Hilinski, has stepped in nicely so far since the injury to Jake Bentley. Hilinski has probably never faced a defense as good as Alabama’s, so avoiding mistakes will be crucial. Alabama have not really been tested this year, and playing in a road environment should show us the true potential of this team. I like the Tide to roll, but with it being a conference game, I believe the Gamecocks will keep it close enough to cover.

Over Under Pick

The over was easy cash last week for both teams, but this week I would lean to the under. The Tide is not going to allow much scoring because their defense is so good, but South Carolina has a better defense than both the teams Alabama has played, so I do not see the Tide running up the score. The under is 18-8 in South Carolina’s last 26 conference games and that is where I will lean for this game. This should be a small bet because the Crimson Tide can score about as quick as anyone in the country.

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Against the Spread Pick

The UNLV Rebels (1-1) are coming off a loss against Arkansas State, and now they pay a visit to Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois for a match-up with the Northwestern Wildcats (0-1). The Wildcats had a bye in week two, after coming up short on the road at Stanford to open the season. Northwestern looked pretty disappointing offensively and with the quarterback position still in question, the defense will be leaned on heavily once again. UNLV has lost each of their last two head-to-head meetings against the Wildcats, the last of which was back in 2001. I like Northwestern at home to get the win, but UNLV is a good pick to cover the 18.5 spread.

Over Under Pick

The total has gone under in four of UNLV’ last six games. Likewise, the under has been a good play in six of Northwestern’s last nine games. As mentioned, it has been a long time since these teams faced and off and the over in that meeting 17 years ago is irrelevant. The under is a good call in this match-up.

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Against the Spread Pick

Georgia Southern (1-1) and Minnesota (2-0) square-off in week three of the 2019 College football season at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The Eagles had no answers for LSU in their season opener but rebounded with a nice win over Maine in week two. The Gophers have had to come from behind in both of their games thus far against South Dakota State, and then on the road at Fresno State. Georgia Southern is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, while Minnesota is 3-3-1 ATS in their last seven. The Gophers have yet to cover this season, and after seeing the stress they have had to start the season, having to come from behind to win, they could have a little trouble with that in this game as well. The Eagles only managed three points in their other game against a Power Five team this season, so they might have trouble scoring in this one. The Gophers will find a way to get the win, but I like the Eagles to cover the 16 points.

Over Under Pick

This is the first meeting between the Gophers and Eagles, so there isn’t any history to look back on, but Georgia Southern did play a power-five team in week one — a blowout by LSU. The Eagles only managed three points, as LSU was able to score 55 points. The over-under of 47.5 in this match-up seems pretty reachable with the Gophers averaging 28 points per game. The over is a slight lean in this one.

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Against the Spread Pick

Instead of last season being the beginning of the end it might have just been the beginning for USC. They beat Stanford and freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis looked pretty good leading the new pass-happy attack. He has one of the best sets of receivers in the country and maybe an “it” factor too… we will see. BYU is no pushover opponent but they are probably going to play a lot like Stanford did. This is on the road though. The Cougars are 1-1 after beating Tennessee in overtime, as an underdog. The team is solid but I am not sure there is something they do really well, which is kind of what you need when you are taking on good teams. They have still not generated a ton of offense this season. Ty’Son Williams has played in the ACC and the SEC so there is talent within the RB. They are going to need some game-breaking plays to win this weekend. I like the Trojans a lot on the road even though the number is a little dead right now. Take USC.

Over Under Pick

BYU has the bodies to make this a physical affair and try and muddy things up. That is the strategy employed by USC but it hardly held the Trojans back and that was with a CB that is headed to the NFL. BYU might not have one of those so all the physicality in the world might not be enough. Both USC totals went over. I am going that way here too. Over.

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Against the Spread Pick

Stanford is coming off a loss to USC and the key for this game is the health of QB KJ Costello. He left the opener with an injury and the offense has struggled under touted sophomore Davis Mills. Mills started on the road at USC so I am not overly worried about the environment, just that the Cardinal offense is not very good right now and UCF will be pumped to make a statement. The Cardinal defense was not very well last week and this team is a pretty significant underdog here. UCF is hoping to have another juggernaut season in the AAC. They have barely been challenged through a couple of games, but have this one circled for sure. UCF is noted for their explosive offense and they will challenge the Cardinal defense with more speed than maybe even USC had. If they are effective in the trenches then this one could easily be a blowout. Take the Knights at home.

Over Under Pick

Both of UCF’s first two games have gone under the total, primarily because the opponents did not score. I think that could be the case again in this one especially if Costello does not play. The Knights will be slowed more than they have in any game this season but could still win easily, something like 31-17. That would come in well under the number. Take the Under.

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Against The Spread Pick

The Battle for the Iowa Corn Cy Hawk Trophy is one of the better rivalries in college football. This season the Iowa Hawkeyes are ranked 19th in college football after starting the season 2-0. Iowa is 2-0 after defeating Miami (Ohio) in week one by a score of 38-14 and Rutgers 30-0 in week two. Meanwhile, the Cyclones are undefeated but not ranked in the top 25. Iowa State has only played one game this season which was a 29-26 win over Northern Iowa in triple overtime in week one of the season. Iowa is 6-3-1 ATS in the last ten games of the series. The Hawkeyes also look like the better team this season, and I look for them to get the win and cover against the Cyclones in week three of the season.

Over Under Pick

The Hawkeyes have scored 30 or more points in their first two games of the season. Meanwhile, they have one of the best defenses this season in college football allowing 14 points per game which ranks 38th. The Cyclones weren’t able to stop a Division 1-AA in week one, and this will only be their second game of the season. The under has hit in seven of the last ten games of the series. I look for that trend to continue in this game. The Hawkeye’s defense should be able to shutdown the Cyclone’s offense making the under 44.5 a lock in this game.

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Against The Spread Pick

The Louisville Cardinals bounced back from their week one loss to Notre Dame nicely by defeating Eastern Kentucky 42-0. This week Louisville will take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers who are also 1-1 on the season after a 20-14 week two win over Florida International. Western Kentucky bounced back from an ugly week one loss to Central Arkansas. The Cardinals are 2-0 ATS this season while the Hilltoppers are 1-1. Louisville won last year’s matchup 20-17 at home but failed to cover the spread. This year’s game is at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. I lean Louisville -10 in this game despite last year’s matchup as they are a more experienced and improved team compared to the previous season.

Over Under Pick

The Hilltoppers have scored 20 or more points in their first two games of the season, but are going against the best defense they have faced this season. The Cardinals possess one of the better run offenses this season in college football. Louisville ranks 25th in rushing yards per game with 249 yards. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers have one of the better run defenses this season ranking 25th in allowing 85 yards rushing per game. I look for this to be a slow-paced game with the under 51.5 being the top play in this game.

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Against the Spread Pick

The combination of Matt Corral and Elijah Moore fired on all cylinders for the Ole Miss Rebels last weekend. That duo hopes to work similar magic against the visiting Southeastern Louisiana Lions–although it is safe to say magic will not exactly be required against an opponent from the Southland Conference. After losing to Memphis in its season opener, Ole Miss rolled over SEC foe Arkansas 31-17 this past Saturday. Corral completed more than 66 percent of his passes for 246 yards without an interception and Moore went for 130 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Lions beat Jacksonville State 35-14 in their season opener before a scheduled matchup with Bethune-Cookman got cancelled due to Hurricane Dorian, so it has been a somewhat bizarre start to the 2019 campaign. Jaylon Jones and Luke Knox each had two tackles for loss against Arkansas, while Josiah Coatney recorded a sack among his team-leading seven tackles. They should have no trouble getting into the backfield at the expense of the Lions’ offensive line. OLE MISS should cover.

Over Under Pick

For Southeastern Louisiana, Chason Virgil and Cole Kelley combined to throw for three TDs against Jacksonville State and Devonte Williams scored touchdowns on both the ground and through the air via reception. Both offenses are looking solid, and you have to expect Corral and Moore will have their way with a Southland defense. Roll with the OVER.

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Against The Spread Pick

The Miami Hurricanes haven’t gotten off to the start they had hoped for this season. After losing to Florida in their first game, they followed that up with another loss to the North Carolina Tarheels by a score of 25-28. That has left many Miami fans wondering if Manny Diaz is the right man for the job. This week they get their weakest opponent on the season, Bethune-Cookman. Bethune-Cookman had their second game of the season canceled against SE Louisiana but defeated Jackson St. in week one by a score of 36-15. The Wildcats are one of the better Division 1-AA teams, but they don’t have the talent to match up with the Hurricanes. Still, I look for Bethune-Cookman to cover the massive 41-point spread against Miami.

Over Under Pick

The Hurricanes have struggled to put up points this season ranking 102nd in college football with 20 points per game. Their defense has been slightly below average in points allowed per game with 24 which ranks 73rd in college football. The Wildcats offense put up 36 points in their season opener and are healthy after last week’s game was canceled. Still, I don’t see them putting up a lot of points against the Hurricanes. I look for Miami to control this one with their running game which should keep this game low scoring and making the under 56 the right play.

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Against the Spread Pick

The Arkansas Razorbacks are still looking for an offensive spark after totaling just 37 points during their 1-1 start to the season. There is already a quarterback change taking place, as head coach Chad Morris is going with junior transfer Nick Starkel for this weekend’s home non-conference game against the Colorado State Rams. Starkel, a former starter at Texas A&M, took over for senior Ben Hicks in the second half of last Saturday’s 31-17 loss at Ole Miss. The Rams are also off to a 1-1 start and they are looking to sweep the home-and-home series after rallying from a 27-9 second-half deficit last season for a 34-27 upset victory over the visiting Hogs. Colorado State is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 following a win by at least 20 points. The Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last four overall, 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference contests, and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Lean toward the RAMS.

Over Under Pick

Starkel underwhelmed last weekend and he obviously does not have much experience running the offense for Arkansas. CSU is allowing just 191.5 passing yards per game. The under is 4-1 in the Rams’ last five overall, 5-1 in their last six non-conference contests, and 4-0 in their last four in September. It is also 4-1 in the Razorbacks’ last five overall, 4-0 in their last four against non-conference competition, and 5-0 in their last five in September. Count on this one staying UNDER the total, and it’s a good opportunity to jump on it because it has ballooned from 59 to 64.5.

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Against the Spread Pick

Cal is favored at home after their upset of Washington. North Texas heads north with questions about its offense led by Mason Fine. Fine has been one of the more productive quarterbacks in the country over the last couple of years but did not look great against SMU last week in a loss. The Mustangs are hardly a defensive power which is why there has to be a concern now that they are taking on one of the best defensive teams in the country. For Cal it is all about avoiding a letdown. Beating the Huskies was great (second year in a row) but now they come back home in a classic letdown spot before hitting the road again at Ole Miss. Justin Wilcox has their defense whipped in a frenzy right now and that should be enough for them to cover this spread. With that defense, you have to love the Bears in underdog roles but take them here too.

Over Under Pick

Both North Texas games have gone over and both Cal games have gone under this season. I generally think the home team or the better team sets the tone and in both cases that is Cal. Look for the Bears to be happy to dominate without scoring a ton in this one. The total is not crazy so there might be some backdoor fear but take the under. That Bears defense is tough.

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Against the Spread Pick

Idaho State does play in the “prestigious” Big Sky Conference, but this should be a total mismatch. They did get a win over Western State as the Bengals had success moving the ball on the ground and through the air in the win. Both are going to be tough against a stout Utah team. They are massive underdogs and for good reason. If they can keep it close for a half it will be a moral victory. Utah might be the best team in the PAC 12 and this one is just a dress rehearsal for what should be a really important game at USC next week. Utah has a monster defensive line that should dominate and even though they do not have the reputation of being that dynamic on offense they have great balance this season. They can really move the ball as Zack Moss and Ty Huntley have been great.  Take Utah.

Over Under Pick

I am expecting Utah to totally dominate in this one. They have the defense to do so and the offense as well. The total is not too high but to get it I think we would need some help from the Bengals that we are not going to get. Take the under as this FCS team is shown what it is like to take on an elite team.

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Against the Spread Pick

Cal Poly has split their first two games, beating San Diego and losing to Weber State. Neither of those results was much of a surprise and now they are stepping up in competition, maybe. The Mustangs want to run the ball, but it is hard having success like that in these FCS vs. FBS clashes where the difference is often the greatest in the trenches. If they are able to move the ball in this one maybe they put some heat on the home team. Oregon State has lost their first two games, both as dogs, to Oklahoma State and Hawaii. The latter they covered though. They have been balanced on offense thanks to running back Jermar Jefferson. He was good against the Cowboys and then exploded against Hawaii with almost 200 yards. They kept feeding him and that is probably going to be the strategy here too. I am not sure Cal Poly has the manpower to stop him. Back Oregon State to get their first win and cover at home.

Over Under Pick

The Beavers have had one over and one under through a couple of games. The total for this one is pretty high and given we are counting on Oregon State to do much of the scoring that gives me some pause. They should be able to get what they want but I am not sure that translates into anything more than the high 40s or low 50s in terms of points. Go with the under here.

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Against the Spread Pick

After losing at top-ranked Clemson last week, the 15th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies return home to host an FCS opponent, the Lamar Cardinals of the Southland Conference. Texas A&M’s 24-10 setback against the top-ranked Tigers was not particularly discouraging and it will have the team battle-tested for the remainder of the schedule–and certainly will have the team ready to pound Lamar by more than 44 points. The Cardinals are receiving votes in this week’s FCS Coaches’ Poll, but that is not saying a lot. They got blasted by Texas Tech 77-0 last season, for example. Lamar was picked to finish fifth in the Southland’s preseason poll after making its first postseason appearance since 1964 last year and losing at Northern Iowa 16-13. Count on the AGGIES winning and winning big.

Over Under Pick

A&M junior quarterback Kellen Mond, who passed for 236 yards and a touchdown at Clemson but also lost a fumble and was intercepted once, needs 88 passing yards to become the ninth Aggie QB to reach the 5,000-yard mark in career passing yards. Lamar senior QB Jordan Hoy, a transfer from Old Dominion, was the Southland’s Newcomer of the Year last season and has rushed for 118 yards and five touchdowns while also passing for 459 yards and three more TDs through two games of the 2019 campaign. Take the OVER.

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Against the Spread Pick

The Florida Gators began the year with a wild 24-20 victory over in-state rival Miami, after which they crushed Tennessee-Martin 45-0. Quarterback Feleipe Franks struggled in last year’s infamous loss to the Kentucky Wildcats, but he has been in fine form so far this season. Franks went 25-of-27 for 270 yards and two touchdowns last weekend as he broke Tim Tebow’s single-game school record for completion percentage. The offense racked up 543 yards, giving the Gators at least 500 yards of total offense in four of the last six games. Florida’s defense has been getting to quarterbacks with 15 sacks in the first two games, including 10 in the opener versus Miami. That is bad news for Kentucky, which is already down to its second-string QB (Sawyer Smith) following the season-ending knee injury sustained by Terry Smith. The ‘Cats did plenty of damage on the ground against UF in 2018 but no longer have star running back Benny Snell at their disposal. Go with the GATORS.

Over Under Pick

Although Kentucky’s defense looks decent at this point, it will have to continue overcoming the departure to the NFL of All-American lineman Josh Allen. Franks may have plenty of time to do damage with both his arm and his legs. The over is 3-0-1 the Gators’ last four on the road, 3-1-1 in their last five against the SEC, and 5-1-1 in their last seven following a win. It is also 5-0 in the Wildcats’ last five overall, 4-0 in their last four at home, 4-0 in their last four against opponents with winning records, and 4-0 in their last four following a win. Take the OVER.

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Against The Spread Pick

The Duke Blue Devils are 1-1 on the season after bouncing back from an ugly 3-42 loss in week one against Alabama. Last week the Blue Devils defeated North Carolina A&T by a score of 45-13 and this week they have what should be another easy opponent in the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee. Like Duke, Middle Tennessee is 1-1 on the season after losing to Michigan in week one. They defeated Tennessee State 45-26 in week 2. Both teams are 1-1 ATS on the season which should make this game a tossup. I have a slight lean on the Blue Raiders at +6.5 for this game at home.

Over Under Pick

Neither defense for these teams has been great this season. Duke ranks 118th while Middle Tennessee ranks 115th in points allowed per game this season. While both offenses may be average, they should look above average in this game going against porous defenses. The total has gone over in four of the last six for Duke and six of the previous seven games for Middle Tennessee. I look for the over to hit once again with the total going over the 50.5.

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Against the Spread Pick

The Auburn Tigers are off to a solid 2-0 start as they prepare to host the Kent State Golden Flashes on Saturday. Auburn opened with a huge 27-21 victory over Oregon in Dallas before coasting to a relatively lackluster 24-6 defeat of Tulane this past weekend. The Tigers’ defense has been especially stout, limiting the high-powered Ducks to 332 total yards and then shutting down Tulane to the tune of 223 yards (103 passing, 120 rushing). That sounds like bad news for a Kent State squad that managed only seven total points during a season-opening loss to Arizona State. The Golden Flashes were less than spectacular in a 26-23 win over Kennesaw State last week. Kent State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven against the SEC, 7-15 ATS in its last 22 against opponents with winning records, and 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road against opponents with winning home records. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall, 5-0 ATS in their last five at home, and 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference contests. AUBURN should be able to cover.

Over Under Pick

Kent State quarterbacks have been sacked six times through two outings (Dustin Crum five, Woody Barrett one) while combining for just two touchdown passes. As a team, the Golden Flashes are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. The under is 7-2 in the Golden Flashes’ last nine overall and 6-2 in their last eight against non-conference competition. It is also 14-5 in the Tigers’ last 19 overall, 11-4 in in their last 15 at home, and 18-6-2 in their last 26 non-conference games. Look for this one to stay UNDER the total.

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Against the Spread Pick

Not many college football teams have made bigger and better headlines than the LSU Tigers through two weeks. They opened with a 55-3 pasting of Georgia Southern before beating Texas 45-38 — on the road, no less — this past Saturday night. LSU is up to No. 4 in the rankings and quarterback Joe Burrow has soared to fourth (tied) in the Heisman Trophy odds behind fellow star quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, and Trevor Lawrence. Burrow went 31-of-39 for 471 yards with four touchdowns and one interception against the Longhorns. He completed 23 of 27 attempts for 278 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions against Georgia Southern. The Northwestern State Demons, meanwhile, were just on the wrong end of two straight laughers and things will only get worse this weekend. Northwestern State followed up a 42-20 setback against Tennessee-Martin with a 33-7 home loss to Midwestern State. The Demons faced one SEC opponent in 2018 and lost at Texas A&M 59-7. Expect LSU to cover.

Over Under Pick

For once LSU’s offense actually looks better than its defense. Burrow is on fire, and he had to be against Texas because the Tigers’ secondary stunk. The Longhorns racked up 31 points in the second half as quarterback Sam Ehlinger threw for 401 yards and four TDs without getting picked off. As for the Demons, they have not impressed on either side of the ball but they at least look competent on offense thanks to quarterback Shelton Eppler and receiver Quan Shorts. Take the OVER.

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Against The Spread Pick

The Seminoles are not playing up to their potential this season. After their week one 2nd half collapse against Boise State, they had to win in OT against Louisiana-Monroe. This week the Seminoles will take on their toughest opponent to this point of the season in the Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavaliers enter this game 2-0 and ranked 25th. The Cavaliers will be one of the best teams in the ACC this season and have looked good in their first two games outscoring Pittsburgh and William and Mary by a combined 52-31. Virginia is 2-0 ATS this season, and I look for that to continue in this game with a win and to cover the 7-point spread.

Over Under Pick

Both offenses are above average this season in college football. The Seminoles rank 62nd with 31 points per game while the Cavaliers rank 34th with 41 per game. Florida State unlike Virginia though has a below-average defense that is giving up 36 points per game. I look for the Cavaliers to move the ball with ease against the Seminoles, but I can’t say the same thing about Florida State against Virginia. Therefore, I only have a small lean on the over 57 total for Saturday.

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Against The Spread Pick

Purdue bounced back last week against the Vanderbilt Commodores winning the game 42-24 after an ugly31-34 defeat on the road in week one against Nevada. The Boilermakers are 1-1 on the season and will have arguably their toughest opponent to date on Saturday against the TCU Horned Frogs. TCU is 1-0 after beating Arkansas Pine Bluff in week one and having a bye last week. This game will be a more stringent test for TCU. Purdue is 1-1 ATS this season while TCU is 0-1 ATS. With a game that will come down to the 4th quarter, I am only recommending a small play on the Boilermakers at +2.5 for this game.

Over Under Pick

Purdue has one of the best passing offenses in college football this season with quarterback Elijah Sindelar behind center and Rondale Moore at receiver. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs also appear to have a decent offense that could put up points against a passing defense that ranks 104th in college football. This game has the makings of a high scoring affair, and I look for that to be the case. I love the over 51 in this game.

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Against the Spread Pick

Will the real Missouri Tigers please stand up? They walloped West Virginia 38-7 this past weekend, but that was preceded by a 37-31 loss to Wyoming. Quarterback Kelly Bryant has played well for the most part, but his team needs to limit mistakes in terms of both turnovers and penalties. Missouri committed 10 for 100 yards in its second game of the season and often handed the Mountaineers good field position on which they could not capitalize. The Southeast Missouri State Redhawks have also been up and down, thumping Southern Illinois 44-26 before succumbing to Montana State 38-17. This is a run-first team, which means the clock will move, the game will be shortened, and the score will look closer than it really is. SEMO has rushed the ball 86 times through two games (4.8 yards per attempt) and has taken to the air just 54 times. The REDHAWKS should be able to cover the spread in defeat.

Over Under Pick

Missouri’s defense got complacent against Wyoming squad that it admittedly took for granted, but to say the pace was picked up against West Virginia would be a gross understatement. The Tigers managed only two tackles for loss and didn’t record a single sack in their upset loss, but against a Big 12 offense the next week they self-corrected with 11 tackles for loss — three of which were sacks — en route to a near shutout. Look for this one to stay UNDER the total.

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Against the Spread Pick

Syracuse are in for a world of trouble after getting destroyed by Maryland last week. They were ranked in that game too, so it was very shocking to see them lose 63-20. Clemson on the other hand, probably faced their toughest opponent all year and dominated them. The final score was 24-10, but that does not really show how Clemson controlled the game. This will be the first road test for the Tigers and while they should win in a blowout, they have had trouble with the Orange over the past few years. The Orange are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall and I expect a much better showing against the top ranked team in the country. Because this is a conference road game for Clemson, I like Syracuse to keep it within four scores. They cannot play worse than they did at Maryland, so I lean to the Orange plus the points.

Over Under Pick

With the total set at 61, I lean to the under. With this being a crucial ACC game, I believe both defenses will show up to this game. The under is 13-4 in the last 17 September games for Clemson. The under is also 12-5-1 in the last 18 home games for Syracuse. I will take the under, but only as a small play.

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Against the Spread Pick

Hawaii is 2-0 with two wins over PAC 12 opponents and will try for a third and the toughest yet as they hit the road to take on #14 Washington. Hawaii has won as a favorite and as an underdog, but did not cover last week against a bad Oregon State team. The key for them will be getting the passing game going. Cole McDonald has 8 TD passes already, but also 5 picks. Washington always has a strong defense and will see him coming. Washington might still be smarting off their loss to Cal, at home. Hawaii is a totally different kind of opponent, less physical and offense first. Transfer QB Jacob Eason was supposed to elevate the offense, but we have yet to see it. This is a matchup where he should be able to have some success. The real lesson from last week is that he is no savior. I like Hawaii with McDonald to be able to score enough to get their number. Take Hawaii.

Over Under Pick

With Hawaii expected to be able to move the ball and get some points, I think the over is a solid play. Washington was under last week against the Bears, but will be happy to have some breathing room this week. Eason just might be a guy that does not perform well against good teams. He gets to take advantage of the skill advantage here. Take the over.

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Against the Spread Pick

Oklahoma has looked as good as expected through a couple of games. They had back-to-back QBs who won the Heisman  and were the top pick in the draft, but there has been no letdown at that position with Jalen Hurts transferring in. This was maybe going to be a test but they are huge favorites on the road. They covered a 46.5 point spread in their last one against an FCS opponent so they could be champing at the bit to be pushed a little. At UCLA things are looking pretty bleak right now. Losing on the road to Cincinnati was one thing but following that up with a home loss to San Diego State has the faithful very uneasy right now. They have only scored 14 points in each game which is surprising given the coach. This is a game they should lose and an 0-5 start is possible. I do not like their chances at all. Take the Sooners even though it is a big number.

Over Under Pick

Both UCLA games have gone under while OU games are one push and one over. Oklahoma is going to definitely get theirs and there is a definite tendency to take your foot off the gas when you are up. Even with an improved OU defense garbage time is going to be dangerous. Take the over here and assume the Bruins help us out late in a meaningless way except for the total.

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Against The Spread Pick

The Rice Owls and the Texas Longhorns face off Saturday in a neutral site game, but there will be nothing neutral about it, this is a home game for Texas. The Longhorns are coming off a loss against LSU, but this is going to be one of the easier games they are going to get all season.The Owls in their last game gave up 41 points against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Longhorns are likely to rack up the same or more, but the big difference is the Longhorns have a better defense than the Demon Deacons, which will make it a long afternoon for Rice. Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. CUSA. Longhorns are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up loss. Owls are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Back the Longhorns to cover the big number in this one.

Over Under Pick

This is a total I would stay far away from, because it’s going to come down to how many points the Owls can score, and I don’t trust their offense at all in this game. Under is 6-2-2 in the Owls’ last 10 games overall. Under is 25-11 in Longhorns last 36 games overall. Under is 9-4 in Longhorns last 13 neutral site games. This is a total I would stay far away from, but if you need to bet it, back the under.

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Against The Spread Pick

The Nebraska Cornhuskers were up 24-14 in the 4th quarter last week against Colorado but allowed the Buffaloes to tie the game up with 53 seconds left in the game and ultimately lost the game 31-34 in overtime. Meanwhile, the Northern Illinois Huskies are 1-1 on the season and 2-0 ATS. The Huskies defeated Illinois State 24-10 in week one and followed that up with a 17-35 road loss against the Utah Utes last week. Northern Illinois is 5-1 ATS in their previous six road games. Even though I don’t see them winning the game, I think they will keep the score close and within the 14-point spread.

Over Under Pick

Scott Frost’s offensive systems are known to average a lot of points per game. Nebraska is well on its way to making that happen with Frost at head coach. The Cornhuskers are averaging 33 points per game while the Huskies just gave up 35 to Utah. Nebraska still has some work to do on defense as they gave up 21 to South Alabama and another 34 to Colorado in last week’s game. I look for this game to be a high scoring affair with the over 54.5 being a solid pick in the game.

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Against the Spread Pick

Texas Tech is favored on the road here against Arizona. It’s a small number, but I am not sure we know a ton about the Matt Wells era from wins over Montana State and UTEP, both covers. In those games, they were still throwing a lot and having success but the defenses were hardly going to frustrate them. Arizona has more athletes and would probably be the favorite if this game were in Week 1. Matt Wells knows how to coach defense and the numbers look good but again the competition has been light. Arizona has not looked good this season. They lost at Hawaii as a favorite, but I am more concerned about the 41 points they gave up last week to Northern Arizona. Yes, a lot of those came in the second half when the game was out of reach but it led to an ATS loss. In this case, they only have to win the game so they are less scary. I am siding with Arizona and looking for some magic from Khalil Tate. He is back up and running this season.

Over Under Pick

Two overs for Arizona to start the season, mostly because the Wildcats just can’t stop anybody. They are going to have a similar problem with Texas Tech. For the Red Raiders they have played two unders but I worry that they might be a step slow against an offense that actually has some playmakers. Despite the high number, take the over here in a game that goes back and forth.

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Against the Spread Pick

Montana is 2-0 but they will be stepping up in class here. The Grizzlies have looked more than capable against FCS foes but now they are hitting the road to take on Oregon. That robust spread tells you all you need to know. Against a more average FBS team they might be able to have some success but I am not expecting much from them here. Oregon must have still been pissed after losing to Auburn and they took it out on Nevada last week, winning 77-6. The game got out of hand pretty quickly as QB Justin Herbert put up efficient numbers. They were pretty much able to get whatever they wanted against Nevada, who had upset Purdue the week before. Look for more of the same this week. They could be looking ahead to taking on Stanford but it won’t really matter. Huge number but Oregon is the play.

Over Under Pick

Against Nevada the Ducks covered the total all on their own, with ease. There is a very good chance they could do so again vs. Montana. The Grizzlies are probably not as good as Nevada but thinking they can contribute more than the Wolf Pack did last week is not to hard to see. Take the over. Even Oregon’s reserves will be a mismatch.

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Against The Spread Pick

The UFC Knights will head to Pittsburgh to take on the Panthers this Saturday. The Knights are looking good this year, boasting a 3-0 record with victories against Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic and Stanford. During their victory over Stanford, UCF’s quarterback, Dillon Gabriel produced 347 yards with four touchdowns. Tre Nixon was the top receiver on 88 yards with a touchdown from five catches, and Greg McCrae was the Knights’ leading rush with 109 yards and a score. Pittsburgh is 1-2 this season, having fallen to Virginia and Penn State. UCF’s success this season has been quite impressive. They’ve managed to score at least 45 points every game, and though they haven’t played any powerhouse teams yet, the results are still just about all you can ask for. UCF has this once in the bag, and I think they’ll cover.

Over Under Pick

The over is 7-1 in Knights last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record. Both these teams have talent, and neither necessarily shine defensively. Take the over on this one.