College Football Picks

Following a couple of easy victories in Week 1, both James Madison and Louisville will get its first real test of the season on Friday in a game that could sneakily end up having major College Football Playoff implications. After all, James Madison should be looking to follow the Boise State model from a season ago and just keep this one respectable for the playoff committee to recognize that it was a “quality loss”. That’s the name of the game these days, and I’m of the belief that the Dukes will be able to keep this one within the number.

For my money, James Madison was the clear standout in the Sun Belt back when I wrote up the conference preview last month, and my opinion certainly hasn’t changed after watching the Dukes throttle Weber State in Week 1. What makes Bob Chesney’s team so difficult to prepare for is that they’ll be using multiple quarterbacks in this game, as second year starter Alonza Barnett III got the majority of the workload through the air last week, while I expect Matthew Sluka to get at least 10 carries and be more involved through the air as well. The Dukes likely kept things pretty vanilla on offense last week, but this is a deep and experienced unit that has no trouble playing against Power 4 competition, as we saw against North Carolina a season ago.

On the other side, Louisville is a team I’m fairly high on from a season-long perspective, but the Cardinals were far from perfect against Eastern Kentucky last weekend, turning the ball over 3 times and committing a whopping 12 penalties for 106 yards in the victory. It remains to be seen just how quickly Miller Moss can pick up Jeff Brohm’s offense and while Louisville should find some success in this game, I don’t think it’ll be as easy as the market is signifying given that James Madison has a very experienced defense that could start as many as 7 seniors in this contest. If the Louisville offenses continues to struggle on late downs (77th in 3rd/4th down success rate), the Dukes should be able to keep this one within two touchdowns.

James Madison vs Louisville prediction: James Madison +14.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +14. 

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Where do the Broncos go from here after being embarrassed on national television last week at the hands of USF. The writing was on the wall though, Ashton Jeanty not being in the backfield was integral in the demise of Boise State but last season’s run to the CFP was driving sentiment. The perception of the Broncos versus the reality was the real match-up and Boise got outright exposed by Byrum Brown and company in Tampa.

Eastern Washington should be a tune-up for Boise but spotting lumber with the Broncos at this point, seems to be a tall order. The Broncos defense got diced up by the Bulls’ run game and USF was also able to take the top off the defense too while they were at it. Will Boise recover and beat EWU? Sure. It’s hard to win at The Blue for anyone and a FCS foe is a step-down compared to South Florida who could be a G5 contender for the CFP this year.

However, we don’t know what we are getting with Boise State. Will they be flat after such a dismal showing? They might be, and it might take them a while to get going. And even if they cruise and get to the front, the glaring weaknesses on the defense may only be more evident when the second teamers come in. There are multiple ways for the Eagles to cover here and that makes them the right side to back in this tilt.

Eastern Washington vs. Boise State prediction: Eastern Washington + points, available at time of publishing. Playable at the number posted, line to be updated Friday morning. 

The Pittsburgh Panthers will stay on their home field for their second game of the season as heavy favorites. The Panthers first game was against the Duquesne Dukes, and Pittsburgh blew them out of the stadium 61-9, covering a sizable 39.5-point spread. Quarterback Eli Holstein entered his sophomore year by throwing for 215 yards and 4 touchdowns, and running back Desmond Reid ran the ball 8 times for 66 yards, including a 53 yard touchdown run. Their opponent this week will be the Central Michigan Chippewas out of the Mid-American Conference. Central Michigan won their first game of the season 16-14 on the road against San Jose State. The Chippewas were 14.5-point underdogs going into the game. San Jose State had two field goal attempts to regain the lead in the final four minutes, but missed both attempts. The victory gave head coach Matt Drinkall his first win as a college football head coach in his debut game.

Pittsburgh flexed their muscle in Week 1, and they will once again be a heavy favorite in Week 2, but Central Michigan should prove to be a tougher test for the Panthers. The strategy was clear for Drinkall in his first game as head coach, run the ball. The Chippewas ran the football 51 times against San Jose State for a total of 236 yards. Running back Nahree Biggins and Trey Cornist combined for 201 of those yards on 31 attempts. Bad news for Central Michigan though is Pittsburgh excels against the run. In 2024, the Panthers only allowed teams to rush for 112.8 yards per game, with an average of 3.1 yards per carry over the course of the year. This defense looked to pick up exactly where it left off against Duquesne, only allowing them to run for 37 yards on 31 attempts. Central Michigan may have had success in Week 1 running the football, but with a generally young offensive line, I don’t expect them to have the same success against a team from the ACC. I expect the Panthers to win big again in Week 2.

Panthers -22.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Texas A&M rolled in Week 1, earning a 42-24 victory over UTSA at Kyle Field. The Aggies really should have covered, but a late score from UTSA once the starters had been pulled got the Roadrunners in the back door. Meanwhile, Utah State started its Bronco Mendenhall era with a 28-16 win over UTEP in which the Aggies held the Miners to just 284 yards of total offense. It was a well-earned and balanced win for Utah State, but things are going to be much more difficult in the battle of the Aggies in College Station, Texas on Saturday.

Like last week, this should be another matchup in which Texas A&M names its score, especially if it can accumulate over 200 return yards again. The Aggies could easily surpass this total by themselves if their starters played a full allotment of minutes, but unlike last week, I’m not as confident in Utah State’s offense being able to put points on the board like UTSA. After all, the Roadrunners are one of the better Group of 5 offenses in the country with a top 70 team talent composite per 247Sports. Meanwhile, Utah State is outside the top 110 in that very metric with just 2 4-star recruits on its roster.

Texas A&M has a significant talent edge in this matchup on both sides of the ball, and despite a potential look ahead to its road trip to South Bend next week, Texas A&M should cruise to a win and cover in this matchup. Look for multiple home run plays from this Texas A&M offense and special teams unit against a Utah State defense that has more FCS/D2 transfers than power conference transfers, and expect Texas A&M’s defense to wreak havoc on an undersized Utah State offensive line and turnover-prone quarterback. 

Utah State vs Texas A&M prediction: Texas A&M Aggies -28.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -30.

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The “Border War” rivalry will be renewed in college football this year when the Kansas Jayhawks and the Missouri Tigers meet on the gridiron for the first time since the Tigers left the Big 12 for the SEC. This will be the first real test for either of these teams this season, as Kansas is 2-0 with wins over Fresno State and Wagner, while Missouri clobbered FCS Central Arkansas last week 61-6.

However, the Tigers did not make it out of that game unscathed. Quarterback Sam Horn was injured early in the game on a designed run, leaving Beau Pribula with the lionshare of the work under center after Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz intended for them to split time due to an ongoing quarterback battle. Additionally, the Tigers lost their starting kicker to an ACL injury and will seemingly proceed with a true freshman in the role for the rest of the year.

Kansas looked great against inferior opponents in both Week 0 and Week 1, but there are some underlying signs that the Jayhawks could struggle with a Missouri defense that returns over 70% of its production after finishing top 20 in scoring and total defense against a schedule much more difficult than Kansas’. Despite the blowout wins, Kansas only converted 6 of 20 third downs against Fresno State and Wagner, and penalties seemed to be an issue considering the Jayhawks were flagged 15 times in the 2 games combined. For reference, the national average was about 5.8 per game in FBS matchups last season. 

Playing on the road for the first time while simultaneously taking a massive step up in class in a renewed rivalry series is going to require a major adjustment period for the Jayhawks. While their offense has looked great thus far, they have not seen an opponent or environment quite like what they will face on Saturday in Columbia. Look for Missouri to have a distinct defensive advantage in this game, and for the Tigers to limit Kansas’s explosive plays enough to win and cover at home. 

Kansas vs Missouri prediction: Missouri Tigers -6.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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After an electric primetime win over Boise State in Week 1, the USF Bulls head on the road to play one of their in-state big brothers in the Florida Gators. The Bulls were outgained by the Broncos on Thursday, but they forced 3 turnovers and controlled the game from the 2nd quarter on. Byrum Brown was awesome in the pocket, probably more than his stats depict, as he churned out multiple touchdown runs and a few other crucial runs that extended drives. Meanwhile, the Gators had a tune-up game against FCS Long Island University and held the Sharks to only 86 yards of total offense. 

I’m expecting points in this game. While holding Boise to 7 points looks good on paper, the Bulls were probably a bit fortunate to recover 3 fumbles either in the red zone or close to it, and benefitted from the Broncos offense going through an adjustment period without Ashton Jeanty. USF is unlikely to have those same fortunes this week against a very strong Florida offense that can seemingly roll out of bed and score 40+ points on inferior opponents in a moment’s notice. 

When USF punched up in class last year, the Bulls surrendered 42 points to Alabama and 50 points to Miami. They even gave up 45 points to Tulane. In those games, USF was gashed on the ground, and that’s something Florida should be able to replicate with ease in this matchup via running backs Jaden Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson, in addition to having a significant physical advantage in the trenches against an undersized USF defensive line. Look for Baugh and Jackson to run wild in this game, and don’t be surprised to see DJ Lagway utilize that run-game success to hit a couple of explosive passes out of play-action. Assuming Florida scores at least 40-45 points, I’m taking the over in this one.

USF vs Florida prediction: Over 54 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 56.5.

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In a game that is forecasted to be settled by a field goal, this is one that can go either way. In a coin flip like this one, the move is to forget the points and get a $.50 better return by taking the dog on the money line. In this case, that would be the Eagles.

In terms of form, both teams come in on wins but the Spartans have dropped seven straight against the number dating back to last season. On the contrary, the Eagles have gone 6-1 ATS in their previous seven dating back to last season. However, with that being said, even if Sparty could be undervalued and BC overvalued due to trends, the fact remains that the oddsmakers perceive this game to be a dog fight. The Spartans in reality haven’t done anything to show that they are a team that can wrangle with Power Four opposition yet, other than beating Purdue last season which isn’t saying much. Yes, it’s a new season, but the onus on the Spartans to demonstrate they can live up to the billing and until they do, there is no reason to buy. This is a team that sleptwalk to a win over Western Michigan last week in a 23-6 victory. Boston College meanwhile crushed Fordham 66-10. Eagles outright.

Boston College vs. Michigan State prediction: Boston College +140 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the biggest games on the Week 2 college football card comes in an all-Texas showdown between the Baylor Bears and SMU Mustangs on Saturday. Baylor was a popular choice to win the Big 12 in the offseason, and while those dreams are very much still alive for Dave Aranda’s squad, the national perception of the Bears certainly took a hit following a 38-24 defeat at the hands of Auburn to open the season. Given that early loss out of conference, it does feel like the Bears desperately need a win this week against a quality out of conference opponent to maintain any room for error in terms of their College Football Playoff aspirations. On the other side, SMU dispatched of East Texas A&M in its first game, but the Mustangs were far from convincing in that performance. With that in mind, I’m certainly partial to the visitors in this in-state matchup.

The primary thing that gave the Baylor defense fits in its season opener was Auburn’s unique ground attack. The Tigers can beat you in a number of different ways on the ground, and there wasn’t much film to be had for Derrick Nix’s unit with Jackson Arnold now in the fold at quarterback. As a result, the Tigers held a 72% Success Rate on the ground, with the bulk of the damage coming from Arnold at the quarterback spot. While SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings does have some mobility, I don’t expect the Mustangs to be nearly as effective on the ground in this game. After all, the Mustangs struggled to get any explosiveness in that department against a poor FCS opponent in Week 1, registering just under 4.5 yards per carry. To make matters worse, it was not a clean operation for SMU at all, as the offense finished with 3 turnovers and was poor on 3rd downs.

What’s even more concerning for SMU was its performance on defense, with the Mustangs allowing over 350 yards of offense and nearly 5 yards per play, despite forcing a trio of turnovers. East Texas A&M also dominated the time of possession in the game, which is more of a product of SMU’s extremely fast tempo on offense. However, this week’s contest is not a game where playing fast will necessarily help you, as Sawyer Robinson and Baylor’s offense is just as capable of scoring quickly against a beleaguered defense. The Bears also already got to face an SEC unit and moved the ball pretty well in that game, so this should not be a step-up in class in the slightest. Ultimately, this projects to be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of points, so I’ll grab the points with the underdog in this Texas showdown.

Baylor vs SMU prediction: Baylor +3.5 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3 (-120). 

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There are a couple points to consider here. First, there is Syracuse who left its backers out to dry last week as a +14 underdog against Tennessee. Let’s take you back. In the closing minutes of the contest, Syracuse had a chance to punch the ball into the end zone and bring Orange backers under the number. Tennessee however would bow its neck and keep Cuse out, winning by 19. That’s a tough pill to swallow, and it makes Syracuse a tough team to ride in their follow up.

Then there is the Huskies, who covered easy last week as a 26.5-point favorite, covering their biggest number in recent memory with relative ease against Central Connecticut State. This is important to remember, because the Orange opened as a 7.5-point favorite. This number is a number designed for the Orange, not the Huskies because even if Cuse wins by a touchdown, UConn backers green up. Seldom does the half point actually factor into the math, but there is an illusion of safety in taking the up-start underdog who was been cashing tickets like a maniac since the tail end of 2024. The Huskies have since resurrected their program and won nine games last season, that storyline is carrying over despite Syracuse hitting the 10-game threshold in 2024. But the ugly loss to the Vols has erased that from perception.

Syracuse had a lot of self-inflicted wounds against Tennessee and with that being said, Coach Fran Brown had the Orange playing with the Tennessee for large segments of the contest. Remove the mental blemishes and Cuse covers easy last week, and perhaps even gives the Vols a scare. They’ll bounce back in a big way this week against the Huskies who are without question, getting too much love here. Lay the points.

Connecticut vs. Syracuse prediction: Syracuse -7 (-110), available at the time of writing. Playable to Syracuse -8.

On paper, this is a bounce-back game for the Buffaloes after underdoing a bitter 27-20 defeat to the Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech, last Friday. Delaware comes in off a 35-17 win over cross-state rival Delaware State in the Route 1 Classic, last Thursday. The Hens failed to cover as a 30.5-point favorite while doing so, despite much of the market siding with the team from Newark who never lost to the team from Dover in the history of the rivalry. So what we have is two ingredients – Colorado in a spot where they can get right after falling as a 4.5-point underdog in the final quarter of play against a team that didn’t look the part, last week, despite getting a win.

However, Delaware was prone to be overvalued against D-State because the fact of the matter is, they’ve been perfect against them. With such supermacy often comes a price, but now the opposite is the case here. This is Delaware’s first game as a FBS member against a Power Four opponent and with that comes an inflated number next to the Hen’s logo. Add in the fact that they didn’t cover last week, that number bloats. Whether Colorado clobbers the Blue Hens or not is irrelevant because the Buffaloes still have a lot of hype and rhetoric behind them. That makes Colorado the team to approach with caution and it is not conducive to lay this amount of points with the Buffaloes still perhaps reeling from last week’s bitter loss. Grab the points.

Delaware vs. Colorado prediction: Delaware +23.5  available at time of publishing. Playable to +23.

After starting the season as one of the top favorites to win the college football playoff, the Clemson Tigers lost their opening game of the year 17-10 against the LSU Tigers. LSU’s defense made Clemson’s offense look average all game long. Quarterback Cade Klubnik finished with only a 50% completion percentage and no touchdowns, and Clemson’s offense as a whole was held to only 261 yards. Week 2, Clemson will have the opportunity to make things right and prove their talent against the Troy Trojans from the Sun Belt Conference. Troy is 1-0 after defeating Nicholls 38-20. Troy trailed this game 17-7 halfway through the 3rd quarter before turning it on late. The Trojans were led by quarterback Goose Crowder. Crowder finished the game with 3 touchdowns thrown. Troy is a heavy underdog going into Saturday, but it’s not uncommon for a team from the Sun Belt to put up a good fight against a Power Four school.

The main storyline going into this game for Clemson is their offense. Yes, in Week 1 they were going against an LSU defense that will finish as a top unit in the nation this season, but Clemson’s offense still left more to be desired. Klubnik is entering his senior year and is expected to have his best season with an experienced unit under head coach Dabo Swinney. Klubnik struggled with consistency in the face of LSU’s exotic blitzes and pass rush, but the Heisman hopeful should be able to get into more of a rhythm against Troy. Clemson should also be able to improve their rushing game in Week 2. The run was nearly nonexistent against LSU, gaining 31 yards on 20 attempts. Adam Randall transitioned this offseason from receiver to running back, and this Saturday can be a good opportunity for him to show why Swinney was comfortable making that move instead of using the transfer portal. All things considered, this is a get right spot for Clemson’s offense. I think Troy will be able to manage some points on their end as well, putting this game over the total.

Over 51.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This number absolutely stinks. Let’s profile both combatants. Arizona State is flirting with a top-10 ranking, fresh off a CFP appearance and Big 12 title in 2024. Many analysts have touted the Sun Devils as the best team in the Big 12 with Kenny Dillingham at the helm, moving forward. There was no trouble in Week One for ASU in dispatching a FCS opponent. No scare, no upset alert, just pure dominance and control. Now, we have the Bulldogs who were the worst team in the SEC in 2024, upset by Toledo in Starkville and decisively so, on upset alert heading into their tilt with Southern Miss, last Saturday. The Dogs didn’t dismantle the Golden Eagles, they won by 17 as a 14-point favorite. So the line makes no sense here.

Chances are if this game plays out as the linesmakers prognosticate, the Bulldogs are going to be in position to pull the upset. If Mississippi State is going to be with a touchdown of a top-10 ranked team, there is a good chance that some mayhem is going to unfold and that’s why I am saying keep the points, we’ll go for the outright win with Mississippi State. If you want to play it conservative, sure, grab the converted touchdown and make it a half-unit play. But I don’t think you’ll need it. The line smells a rat, and more chaos continues Week Two with another ranked team going down. Arizona State is not the same ASU as last year and neither are the Dogs for that matter. Bulldogs win.

Arizona State vs. Mississippi State prediction: Mississippi State +210 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.