College Football Picks

The Rice Owls hit the road for Jerry Richardson Stadium in the Queen City to take on the Charlotte 49ers in an American Conference matchup. The Owls opened the season with a 14-12 win on the road against Louisiana as a 10-point underdog. While they’re 0-2 against the spread in the past 2 games, Rice lost a tough 35-9 battle against crosstown rival Houston before bouncing back with a 38-17 win over Prairie View A&M at home. Regardless of their ATS record, the Owls are playing with a lot of confidence, and they have a respectable defense, unlike the 49ers right now.

The 49ers scored a 42-35 win over Monmonth of the FCS. While a victory is nice, Charlotte allowed an FCS quarterback to throw for 410 yards. Monmouth totaled 458 yards and 28 first downs against Charlotte, too, having their way in the stadium of the 49ers. Charlotte was also sloppy, turning it over three times, while forcing zero turnovers. If the 49ers play like that against the Owls, they’re going to get their doors blown off. Charlotte is 0-2 straight up and ATS in 2 games against FBS opponents, averaging just 7 points per game, while allowing 27 points on the other side. Expect more of the same on Thursday.

Rice vs Charlotte prediction: Rice -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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This is a tough spot for the ‘Hogs, not only because it’s their second straight road game, but because this is the epitome of a sandwich spot. Arkansas took Ole Miss to the brink in Oxford last week and probably should have won, but a costly fumble near the red zone shattered the opportunity. Now, they have this odd non-conference road game against a Group of 5 team right before welcoming Notre Dame to Fayetteville next week. Meanwhile, Memphis coasted through a relatively easy opening 3 weeks despite playing on the road twice already, beating each of its opponents by at least 20 points.

Arkansas will obviously be a drastic step up in class compared to the quality of competition Memphis has seen to this point, but I still believe the Tigers are the side to bet at home on Saturday. Contrary to previous years, the Tigers have relied heavily on the run this season, and they’ve been good at it – ranking top 25 in PPA per rush outside of garbage time against their FBS opponents, as well as top 45 in rush success and explosiveness. This should be an area of opportunity for the Tigers in this matchup considering Arkansas is 93rd in opposing rush PPA and 135th in rushing success rate allowed outside of garbage time.

On the other side, the Razorbacks are extremely dynamic thanks to quarterback Taylen Green. However, he has 4 turnover-worthy plays in his last 2 games, and he hasn’t exactly been the most reliable when playing away from home since he arrived at Arkansas. Against a Memphis defense that generates havoc at a top 12 rate while holding opponents to fewer than 2 points per scoring opportunity, the Razorbacks could be met with some resistance when trying to finish drives on Saturday. 

I power rate this game close to 4 points, so I’m seeing a few points of value on the Tigers here. While I realize Arkansas is a step up in class compared to who Memphis has played to his point, playing power conference opponents have not intimidated the Tigers under Ryan Silverfield. In fact, they are 2-2 SU against Power Four teams over the last 4 years, and only 1 of those losses was by more than 7 points. Give me Memphis.

Arkansas vs Memphis prediction: Memphis Tigers +7.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7 (-120)

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While there are plenty of games that should captivate college football fans across the nation on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games that should have your attention is a Big 12 vs AAC contest, where the East Carolina Pirates will host the BYU Cougars in a compelling clash that should produce plenty of fireworks. BYU has seemed to adapt to life without former quarterback Jake Retzlaff pretty well, as true freshman Bear Bachmeier has stepped in as the leader of this offense and has played mistake-free football over the first 2 weeks of the season. The Cougars have largely relied on their solid ground game (24th in EPA per rush) to lead the way against lesser competition, and Bachmeier hasn’t had to do all that much as a result. However, that will change this week in his first road start against an upstart opponent that is playing very well and boasts one of the more underrated environments in the sport. This is a massive step-up in class for the young quarterback, and I’m not sure how well he fares in this spot.

As for the hosts, the Pirates were a team that I was looking to back heading into the season, and I’ve largely been impressed with what they’ve accomplished thus far. NC State’s offense has proven to be quite good to this point, and East Carolina was able to limit CJ Bailey and the Wolfpack to just 24 points, with only 7 of those points coming in the second half. The defensive metrics for the Pirates aren’t staggering by any means, but it helps matters that BYU’s passing offense has been mediocre to this point (54th in passing success rate). The Cougars are also 98th in points per quality drive, which would give me real cause considering their first 2 games were against Portland State and Stanford. On the other side of the ball, the Pirates will likely have the better quarterback in this game, as Katin Houser has impressed this season, throwing for nearly 1,000 yards through 3 games while tossing 5 touchdowns to just 1 interception. I expect this one to be a close contest from start to finish, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Pirates won outright. BYU has the slightly stronger statistical profile, but the Cougars have yet to be tested. With that in mind, this game should be decided by one possession either way.

BYU vs East Carolina prediction: East Carolina +7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 7.

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The Tulsa Golden Hurricane hit the road to battle the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater. Oklahoma State leads the all-time series 44-28-5, including 10 straight victories in the series since Sept. 11, 1999, including a 45-10 win last season on Sept. 14 in Tulsa. Oklahoma State is 6-1 against the spread in the past 7 meetings, with the under going 4-0.

Tulsa dropped a 42-23 game at home against Navy, failing to cover as a 14-point underdog as the over cashed. The under is 2-1 in 3 games to date, however. For Oklahoma State, the last time we saw it on the football field, it was blasted 69-3 at Oregon as a 28.5-point underdog. Oklahoma State will be champing at the bit to get back on the field after a bye win Week 3. However, Oklahoma State is 0-2 against the spread so far this season, and it’s hard to understand why the Cowboys are favored by 2 touchdowns in this one. The Golden Hurricane might not win, but a team which was dusted by 66 last time out has no business laying double digits to anybody. Take the Golden Hurricane plus the points in this one.

Tulsa vs Oklahoma State prediction: Tulsa +13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +12.5.

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The final chapter of the Battle for the Iron Skillet takes place on Saturday afternoon from Amon G. Carter Stadium on the campus of TCU. The rivalry between the Mustangs and the Horned Frogs is a storied one, dating back to 1915, but this will be the last time they meet on the gridiron for the foreseeable future due to conference realignment and changes in scheduling. SMU has taken three of the last five meetings, but TCU has controlled this series since the mid-1990s. The Horned Frogs are also in a revenge spot here, as the Mustangs took advantage of 5 TCU turnovers and 14 TCU penalties in a 66-42 win at SMU last year. 

The Mustangs benefitted from 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns in the win against the Horned Frogs last year, not to mention SMU running back Brashard Smith’s 127 yards and 3 touchdowns on 18 carries. Unfortunately for the Mustangs, Smith is now with the Kansas City Chiefs, and the defense lost most of its starters from a season ago. Given the roster change, I have a tough time seeing the Mustangs replicating that defensive performance on the road against a TCU team that is 7th nationally in turnover margin through 3 weeks. In fact, the penalty misfortunes in this matchup may now rest with the Mustangs, who are currently 125th in penalties per FBS game.

While the travel is minimal from SMU to TCU, this will be the second straight true road game for the Mustangs, and the atmosphere in a sold-out Amon G. Carter Stadium will be the most hostile SMU has seen this season. That’s not exactly reassuring for the Mustang offense, led by a quarterback in Keving Jennings who already has 8 turnover-worthy plays in 3 games – 2 of which came against an FCS opponent. Even with a great offensive line in front of him, I struggle to trust him in a road setting, especially against a TCU defense that has succeeded in generating havoc thus far.

TCU’s offense is going to be difficult to keep up with if SMU can’t protect the ball. For reference, the Horned Frogs are 6th nationally in PPA per play and 5th in yards per play, in addition to being much better than the Musangs at finishing drives with points. Give me the Horned Frogs to win and cover at home.

SMU vs TCU prediction: TCU Horned Frogs -6.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-120).

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One of the biggest games on the Week 4 college football slate comes in Bloomington, Indiana on Saturday, when the Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Indiana Hoosiers. This is a massive game in the Big Ten for a couple of teams that have an outside shot of disrupting the College Football Playoff picture, and it features a team that I am looking to back against a team I feel very comfortable fading.

Earlier this season, I faded Illinois against Duke and I would still make that bet again given the circumstances around that game. After all, Illinois won the turnover battle 5-0, was gifted points by the Blue Devils on numerous occasions and was able to take advantage of special teams miscues and untimely penalties from Duke in the victory. The Illini were still outgained in that game and Duke registered a 49% success rate (85th percentile) on an Illinois defense that is outside the top 100 in passing success rate and rate of quality drives allowed (CFB-Graphs). In steps an Indiana offense that has been rolling of late, as the Hoosiers sit inside the top 5 in passing success rate and lead the nation in points per quality possession (all drives across the opponents 40-yard-line). Fernando Mendoza certainly looks like one of the better quarterbacks in the nation to this point and the Hoosiers have plenty of skill position talent at their disposal against an Illini secondary that has certainly struggled in the lone game where they had to play a competent offense. The Indiana offensive line is also quite strong, and it should hold an edge in this game against an Illinois defensive front that has yet to face a unit of this caliber.

On the other side of the ball, I’m still not sold on Luke Altmyer and the Illinois passing attack. Despite the fact that the Illini receivers did step up against Duke, that performance has not aged particularly well, seeing as we just saw Tulane make quick work of the Blue Devils’ defense, to the tune of nearly 7 yards per play. The Illini have also struggled with generating explosiveness on offense, particularly in the passing game (69th in passing explosiveness), and that factors in games against Western Michigan and a very poor Western Illinois team. Indiana’s defense is an experienced veteran group and the Hoosiers will certainly be looking to generate turnovers against an Illinois side that has not thrown an interception or lost a fumble to this point in the season. Ultimately, I’m getting to back a great coach in Curt Cignetti, plus the better quarterback in this game at home. I’ll trust my instincts and lay the number with the Hoosiers.

Illinois vs Indiana prediction: Indiana -4 available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5

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These teams both have the capability to be very explosive, and we’ve seen as such in each of their first 3 games. However, this is a step-up in class for both sides on Saturday, and this game should be played at a lot slower of a pace on a down-to-down basis. After all, both of these teams are outside the top 100 in plays run per game, along with similar marks in plays per minute. Couple that with the fact that Indiana has been a particularly strong side in terms of controlling the clock, and all signs are pointing to a more deliberately played game in Bloomington. With that in mind, it’s not a shock that the market has come down a bit off the opener of 54 for this game. It’s not my strongest play on the board by any means, but I’ll take the under at the current number.

Under 53 available at time of publishing. Playable to 52.5