College Football Picks

The Arizona State Sun Devils face the Duke Blue Devils in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, which is played in El Paso. Duke is the champion of the ACC, which is still really odd to say — especially for a team that is 8-5. The Blue Devils have done it most of the season with offense, and it has been enough to make the Blue Devils relevant. ASU, on the other hand, had a disappointing season after making the playoffs the year before. Most of the Sun Devils’ season was wrecked by injuries — especially to starting QB Sam Leavitt and NFL-caliber WR Jordyn Tyson. Tyson opted out, while Leavitt is injured but also in the portal. The Sun Devils have been fighting on without their stars, so they should be competitive here — but their depleted roster will likely catch up with them. I prefer Duke -3 in this spot.

ASU has played excellent defense all season, and it has been enough to keep it in most games. Duke boasts an aggressive offense; and as long as the Blue Devils can hold up against the ASU pass rush, they should be able to score. My concerns here come on the offensive side for ASU. Kenny Dillingham has a lot of players missing this bowl game, and they were already struggling to score throughout most of the second half of the season. While Duke is a softer defense than most of the Big 12 opponents ASU faced, it is hard to believe in this offensive unit — even with the extra couple of weeks to prepare. Duke, whose roster is mostly intact, should be the better team — and I will take the Blue Devils as long as it is 3 points or fewer.

Arizona State vs Duke prediction: Duke -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Bet like a Caesar with this AMAZING new customer offer from Caesars Sportsbook. If you bet just $1, you’ll receive DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS on your next 20 bets! Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PWCONTENT20X, where you can bet on our Arizona State vs Duke picks.

Texas is being priced here as though it is should have been in the College Football Playoff — but that makes sense, the Wolverines are in a transition period from a coaching perspective. But a closer look suggests the Longhorns may be riding perception more than reality. Michigan enters this matchup as mentioned surrounded by noise: the coaching turmoil, the fallout from Sherron Moore’s firing, and the Ohio State loss. Texas meanwhile has gripes about not making the CFP.

But semantics inside, what has Texas truly done to justify laying this kind of number? Yes, the ‘Horns own top-10 wins over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M — but each comes with context. Oklahoma’s offense was compromised and its flaws obvious all season. John Mateer was also banged up in the Red River matchup. Texas A&M largely beat itself in Austin. And Vanderbilt? The ‘Dores nearly erased a 24-point deficit in the DKR. Meanwhile, Texas also needed overtime to escape both Mississippi State and Kentucky — 2 losing teams — and lost to a 4-win Florida side in Gainesville in addition to getting dismantled by Georgia. That résumé hardly screams “trustworthy favorite laying more than a touchdown.” Michigan still plays elite defense, controls the trenches and is a physical bunch. That profile travels — especially as an underdog. The Wolverines don’t need to win outright to be in position here; they simply need to play their brand of football. With Texas likely overpriced and Michigan undervalued, the points are a steal.

Michigan vs Texas prediction: Michigan +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Michigan vs Texas predictions.

With head coach Kyle Whittingham being hired and moving on to coach Michigan, Utah will try to win its first game with defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley as the interim head coach. The Utes’ opponent in the Las Vegas Bowl is Nebraska. Expectations were high this season for Nebraska, but following an injury to quarterback Dylan Raiola, the Cornhuskers finished the season 7-5 and in the middle of the Big Ten standings. The ‘Huskers finished their regular season losing 3 of their last 4 games, while Utah finished winning their last 5 games and 10 of 12 overall. 

Whittingham left the Utah after creating an impressive, long-term program that doesn’t get enough credit. He coached 21 seasons at Utah and posted a record of 177-88 as head coach. Scalley has also been with Utah for quite some time. He has been within the program since 2007, but has no previous head coaching experience. Scalley will have his quarterback, Devon Dampier, who finished the season with 2180 yards and 22 touchdowns. However, Dampier will be without a pair of offensive linemen to protect him. Both Caleb Lomu and Spencer Fano declared that they will sit out this game in preparation for the NFL Draft. Despite falling below expectations this season, Nebraska should still consider this season a step forward. It will be the first time since 2016 that Nebraska will compete in a bowl game in back-to-back years. Head coach Matt Rhule will get another good opportunity to look at freshman quarterback TJ Lateef against a solid opponent. Lateef threw for 722 yards and 4 touchdowns in 6 games during the regular season. Overall, I believe there has been too much turnover in the roster and coaching staff to back Utah at this number. I’m looking for Nebraska to put forth a good effort as it takes a step forward next season.

Nebraska vs Utah prediction: Nebraska +14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook for the football season, we recommend checking out Fanatics Sportsbook. New users can get $250 in FanCash INSTANTLY when they make their first $50 wager! Join Fanatics Sportsbook, where you can bet on our Nebraska vs Utah predictions.

The College Football Playoff resumes on Wednesday after a much-too-long break between the first round and the second round. There will only be one CFP matchup on New Year’s Eve before the final 3 quarterfinal games are played on New Year’s Day, and that lone matchup pits the 11-2 Miami Hurricanes and the 12-1 Ohio State Buckeyes. The Hurricanes come into this playoff matchup on the heels of a 10-3 first-round win over Texas A&M in College Station, but they were outgained, had 9 fewer first downs, and converted just 25% of their third downs. The keys to victory were the 3 turnovers they forced and the 6.3 yards per rush they averaged against the Aggies defense. 

At 87th nationally in giveaways per game, the Aggies were very much turnover-prone this year. Ohio State is a completely different animal, as the Buckeyes average just 0.7 giveaways per game – good for 4th nationally. Much of that is due to OSU QB Julian Sayin’s ball security, as the first-year starter has just 6 interceptions on 6 turnover-worthy plays. Compare that to TAMU QB Marcel Reed, who finished the year with 12 interceptions and 22 turnover-worthy plays – tied for 3rd-most nationally. Considering Sayin finished the season with no more than 1 turnover-worth play in any game, it’s hard to imagine Miami capitalizing on turnovers like it did against Texas A&M. 

It’s also difficult to envision Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. having as much success on the ground against the Buckeyes as he did against the Aggies. For reference, Fletcher averaged just over 10 yards per carry and accounted for 172 of Miami’s 278 total yards. He attacked the weakness of Texas A&M’s defense (104th in PPA per rush this season) I mentioned in my Miami-Texas A&M preview, which ultimately was the reason – along with Reed’s turnover propensity – we played Miami plus the points. This time around, Fletcher and Miami will face an Ohio State run defense that is 5th in rush yards allowed per game and 6th in yards per attempt this season, not to mention being 1st nationally in scoring and total defense. Moreover, the Buckeyes are 10th in PPA per rush and 18th in standard downs PPA allowed since Week 9, so they are in great form coming into this game. Without a reliable run game, more pressure will be thrust onto Carson Beck’s shoulders, which isn’t very settling for Miami given Beck’s hit-or-miss play against above-average defenses.

On the other side of the ball, Miami grades very well. The Hurricanes are top-12 in yards per play, scoring, and total defense, but they showed some deficiencies against capable offenses like Louisville and SMU. Ohio State has the best offense of any that Miami has seen to this point, even if the Buckeyes are outside the top 15 in scoring and total offense due to their slow pace of play. Since Week 9, the Bucks are top-10 in PPA per play, success rate, and points scored per quality drive, and they are notably good on passing downs, which has been an area of weakness for Miami’s defense. 

Miami has star power similar to that of Ohio State, but for my money, the Buckeyes are the more complete team with a more reliable head coach, and they are better than the Hurricanes in almost every aspect on both sides of the ball. Look for OSU to suffocate Miami in a win and cover to advance to the semifinals. 

Miami vs Ohio State prediction: Buckeyes -9 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Miami vs Ohio State CFP predictions.

Both Miami and Ohio State deploy very methodical offenses, as the Hurricanes are 129th in seconds per play while the Buckeyes are dead last at 136th. Right off the bat, I lean to the under because of that, along with the extra preparation both teams had coming into this matchup. Furthermore, Miami and OSU’s defensive success will play a factor in whether or not this game stays under the total, as they mutually rank top-12 in yards per play and third-down conversion rate allowed this year. That defensive prowess hasn’t tailed off much at all down the stretch considering the Hurricanes and the Buckeyes are top-25 in PPA per play allowed since Week 9. Both defenses have been especially good on standard downs in that span, which means Miami and Ohio State could face more third-and-long situations than they would like. 

Given how good both defenses are on early downs and third downs, it’s no surprise to see Miami and Ohio State sitting in the top-5 in red-zone attempts allowed this season. Simply put, it’s been difficult to move the ball on either team, which leads me to believe this will be a low-scoring game. However, I also acknowledge the offensive ceiling Ohio State showcased in the College Football Playoff last year. If the Buckeyes decide to play faster now that they reached the postseason, this total may end up being too low by a few points, but until that happens, I lean to the under. 

Miami vs Ohio State prediction: Under 41.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 41.

Bet like a Caesar with this AMAZING new customer offer from Caesars Sportsbook. If you bet just $1, you’ll receive DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS on your next 20 bets! Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PWCONTENT20X, where you can bet on our Miami vs OSU picks.

The opening round of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and there are now just 8 teams remaining in the pursuit of a National Championship. Earlier this month, the 5th-seeded Oregon Ducks made quick work of James Madison to advance to this round, while the 4th-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders had a bye in the opening round following a 12-1 season and a routine victory in the Big 12 title game. Which of these teams will come out on top in the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day and advance to the semifinals? It’s almost time to find out. 

Given that this is the shortest spread on the board for the CFP quarterfinal round, this has the feeling of a game that should come down to the wire. Therefore, it’s hard to find a ton of clear advantages for either side in Thursday’s game. However, Oregon has a few edges that it should be able to exploit in this matchup. For starters, the Ducks have the better quarterback in the game, and Dante Moore should also be getting back 2 of his top 3 wide receivers in Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. for this matchup. The jury is still out on if Evan Stewart is going to suit up on Thursday, but considering that Stewart hasn’t played for the entire season to this point, his absence isn’t anything new for Will Stein’s offense. With Moore and Bryant Jr. joining the dynamic and explosive Malik Benson in the lineup, this gives the Ducks a formidable trio of targets on the outside, to go along with All-American tight end Kenyon Sadiq at the tight end spot. Oregon is expected to have its top 3 running backs available for this matchup as well, so it’s hard not to be confident in the Ducks’ ability to manufacture offense in this one, even against an excellent Red Raiders defense. 

While Joey McGuire’s defense has been one of the top 5 units in the sport this season, Texas Tech’s issue in this game could be its offense. The Red Raiders certainly have a good offense — albeit one that has been the beneficiary of a somewhat weak schedule of opposing defenses — but there have been clear limitations for this group both on the ground and inside the red zone this season. After all, Texas Tech is just 50th in rushing success rate and 28th in points per drive on offense. In a game that is projected to be close throughout, just one or two failed red zone trips could decide the outcome. With that in mind, I can only side with Oregon to knock off the Red Raiders and advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction: Oregon ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

You can bet on our Oregon vs Texas Tech pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you make a first bet of just $5! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

While both offenses certainly have the capability to put up points in a game that should be played in relatively favorable weather conditions on Thursday, I’m projecting that scoring should be tougher than most would expect in this matchup. For starters, both teams are anchored by their stout defenses, as each unit ranks inside the top 15 nationally in success rate and points per drive allowed on the season. It’s also worth mentioning that each defense has been able to step up in their biggest games of the season to this point, and there’s no real reason to shy away from that trend in this one.

As previously mentioned, it’s hard for any offense to move the ball on this elite Texas Tech defense, as the Red Raiders are 1st in the nation in opponent EPA per play and tops in the country in both Early Downs EPA and quality drive rate allowed. On the other side, I can imagine that some will point to Oregon’s lackluster performance in the 4th quarter against James Madison as a sign of what a better offense could do to the Ducks defense, but it’s important to remember that most of the players on the field in that fourth quarter were backups in a game that was already well out of hand early in the second half. Both defenses should be locked in for a game where red zone success rate could prove to be the difference. I’ll grab the under while it’s still above a key number.

Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction: Under 52.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.

You can bet on our Oregon vs Texas Tech pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

The opening round of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and there are now just 8 teams remaining in the pursuit of a National Championship. Earlier this month, the 9th-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide rallied from a 17-0 deficit against Oklahoma to knock off the Sooners and advance to the quarterfinal round, while the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers had a bye in the opening round following an undefeated regular season and a victory in the Big Ten title game. Which of these teams will come out on top in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day and advance to the semifinals? It’s almost time to find out. 

Heading into the season, I was very high on Alabama’s chances of capturing a national championship given all of the talent on the roster and the upside of what this team could be. However, the Crimson Tide have not exactly been the team I thought they would be prior to the campaign. With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the value that we’re getting on Indiana to win Thursday’s contest by only a touchdown in a game where the Hoosiers should hold plenty of advantages. Not only do the Hoosiers have Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza on their side, but Indiana’s extremely balanced offense (2nd in success rate, 2nd in EPA per play, 3rd in points per drive) should see consistent success against an Alabama defense that has struggled at points against teams with strong passing attacks. The Crimson Tide are also operating at a significant disadvantage on special teams in this game, and that is certainly a factor that could rear its ugly head on Thursday. 

While the Alabama defense can be inconsistent, it’s still a solid unit across the board all things considered. However, the Crimson Tide have more questions on offense, if you can believe that. After all, Kalen DeBoer’s team has not been able to effectively run the ball all season long, and those struggles continued into their matchup with Oklahoma a few weeks ago. Jam Miller has been banged up, and even if he does end up playing in this one, it’s far from a guarantee that Alabama will suddenly see success on the ground against an Indiana defense that is 3rd in rushing success rate allowed and 2nd in opponent EPA per rush. Ty Simpson has struggled when pressured this season and the Hoosiers secondary just performed well against Ohio State’s outstanding trio of wide receivers, so I wouldn’t expect them to be intimidated by the Crimson Tide wideouts. Ultimately, I can only look toward laying the points with the top-ranked team in the nation.

Alabama vs Indiana prediction: Indiana -6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to Indiana -7

You can bet on our Alabama vs Indiana pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $200 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you make a first bet of just $5! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

Despite the fact that both offenses have the capability of putting up points, I actually believe that we’re getting a point or two of value on the under in a game where both defenses should have their say by the time the game ends. On one side, the Indiana defense is one of the best units in the nation, as we saw against the likes of Oregon and Ohio State this season. Time and again, the Hoosiers have proven that their success up front is no flue, and they should be able to dominate the matchup against a middling Alabama offensive line and put pressure on Ty Simpson as a result.

As for the Crimson Tide, this is not a vintage Nick Saban era defense, but Kane Womack is still one of the better defensive minds in the country, and I expect his unit to respond to the challenge against an Indiana offense that has largely done what its wanted to against any opponent all season long. Let’s roll with the under on Thursday.

Alabama vs Indiana prediction: Under 48.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 48.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Alabama vs Indiana predictions.

The Ole Miss Rebels meet the Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl in a rematch from a regular season matchup that saw the Bulldogs come away with an 8-point win in Athens. While the Ole Miss offense found a ton of success in the first meeting, being one of only three team to score more than 20 points against the Bulldogs in 2025, I expect a different outcome this time around. The Georgia defense has been on an absolute tear; the Bulldogs allowed just 7.25 points per game in their last four games and rank top-25 in EPA/rush, EPA/dropback and quality drive rate allowed. 

On the other side of the ball, the Rebels’ defense has had its moments, but also its fair share of struggles. Georgia remains one of the most well-rounded teams in the country, also holding top-25 marks in all three aforementioned categories on offense. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss and company looked the part in round one against an inferior Tulane squad, but this is a different level. I’ll lean on the coaching of Kirby Smart and the playoff experience on this UGA roster in a rematch while the Rebels are without Lane Kiffin. I’ve got Georgia covering on Thursday.

Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction: Georgia -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $150 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Ole Miss vs Georgia predictions.

The College Football Playoffs have several enticing matchups including the rematch of the Ole Miss Rebels and Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl. While these squads combined for 78 points in the first matchup, I don’t expect the same offensive fireworks in a do-or-die spot like the playoffs. While Ole Miss looked like a well-oiled machine against Group of 5 side Tulane in round one, it’s tough to say coaching won’t be a factor as the Rebels go deeper into the playoffs without Lane Kiffin on the sideline. The stakes are as high as they come, and Georgia has likely the most experienced head coach in the country when it comes to the CFB Playoff format with Kirby Smart lining up on the opposite sideline.

Both Ole Miss and Georgia are 4-1 to the under in their last 5 games this season, mostly due to improved defensive play. Georgia has allowed a whopping 8 points per game throughout that stretch while Ole Miss holds a solid top-20 mark in EPA/dropback defensively and a top-35 defensive success rate figure. As the favorite and more experience team, I expect Georgia’s offense to control the pace of this game, a unit that ranks 115th in FBS in plays per second. The Bulldogs will want to slow the tempo compared to the first meeting, and I’ll take the under in the Sugar Bowl matchup.

Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction: Under 56.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

Catching more than two touchdowns in a bowl game in itself could offer tremendous equity. This is especially true considering the profile of the favorite. The Bobcats have a penchant for shootouts and their defense is not a feature of their approach. Texas State’s identity is clear – tempo, explosiveness, and aggression on offense, paired with a defense that can absolutely leak yards and points. That’s not the kind of profile conducive to laying two full scores. Games that often turn into track meets make it naturally harder to separate and sit on a big margin for four quarters. That is what the Cats bring to the table here.

Rice, meanwhile, will be overlooked because they only got a bowl invite since so many others declined. But that makes them dangerous here because they are playing with house money. Add in an enhanced point allotment and a porous defense, this dog has the DNA to get us home. Texas State may be a “sexy” favorite but they are also not built to be laying this kind of margin. However, high-scoring outfits are teams that casual bettors have a tendency to like to ride even if there is voltaility that accompanies them. We won’t follow suit though. We know Rice doesn’t need to be perfect; they just need to hang around, trade scores, and avoid the avalanche. Texas State’s defense makes that feasible.

Rice vs Texas State prediction: Rice +14 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

Iowa’s recent bowl history includes more SEC opponents than not, and much of the same is true this year when the Hawkeyes meet the Vanderbilt Commodores in the ReliaQuest Bowl on New Year’s Eve at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Iowa finished the season 8-4 with losses to Iowa State, Indiana, Oregon, and USC. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt finished just outside of the College Football Playoff at 10-2, losing at Alabama and Texas. This game represents a strength-on-strength battle when Vanderbilt’s offense goes up against Iowa’s defense, but also a weakness-on-weakness battle when the Hawkeyes go up against the ‘Dores defense. 

Vanderbilt stud TE Eli Stowers will not play in this game, which will be a big loss for the ‘Dores. However, assuming everyone else plays, which is expected as of Monday morning, Vanderbilt still should have plenty in the tank offensively. Heisman-hopeful QB Diego Pavia is expected to be under center in what figures to be his final collegiate game, and he will be surrounded by capable playmakers at Vanderbilt’s skill positions in RB Sedrick Alexander, WR Tre Richadson, and WR Junior Sherrill. It is Alexander that I believe will be the catalyst for Vanderbilt’s success in this game, as Iowa’s weakest defensive attributes are on the ground. For reference, Iowa is outside the top 50 in PPA per rush and rushing success rate allowed this season, and it was even worse down the stretch – as Hawkeyes are 83rd in PPA per rush and 75th in rushing success rate allowed since Week 9. Furthermore, they haven’t generated a ton of havoc in that stretch, which should give Pavia more time to operate as the maestro of this offense – a unit that finished the season 1st in PPA per play, 2nd in success rate, and 5th in points per quality drive outside of garbage time. 

On the other side of the ball, Vanderbilt is nowhere near the same level of efficiency defensively as it is offensively. However, Iowa hardly poses a threat when it has the ball. The Hawkeyes are 95th in yards per play and 121st in total offense this season, as well as outside the top 50 PPA per play and success rate since Week 9. The strongest part of this offense is its run game, which just so happens to be the best attribute of Vanderbilt’s defense. The Commodores are top-15 in rushing yards allowed per game, and they are top-35 in PPA per rush outside of garbage time since Week 9. 

So long as Pavia and Alexander play, I trust Vanderbilt’s offense way more than Iowa’s, even if the Commodores struggle defensively. Look for Pavia and the ‘Dores to play with a chip on their shoulders in a win and cover over Iowa. 

Iowa vs Vanderbilt prediction: Commodores -4 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better. 

You can bet on our Iowa vs Vanderbilt pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!