College Football Picks

The Georgia Southern Eagles and Appalachian State Mountaineers renew acquaintances at the JLab Birmingham Bowl on Monday afternoon at Protective Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 pm ET. The Mountaineers were 5-7, and accepted a bowl bid with extra space available with teams electing not to play in the postseason. The loss of those others is the gain of App State. The Mountaineers have dropped 5 of the past 6 games, going 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS), and that includes a 25-23 loss to Georgia Southern as a 5-point favorite on November 6 in Boone, as the Under (61.5) cashed.

Georgia Southern has won 3 of its final 4 games, while also going 3-1 ATS in the span. After a slow start defensively, the Eagles turned a corner and showed slight improvement as the season went along. The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 games, with the offense producing rather sporadic results. The defense has allowed 24 or fewer points in 3 of the past 6 outings, including the 25-23 win at App State. RB OJ Arnold was injured late in the season, and he is unlikely to play for the Eagles, while QBs AJ Swann and JJ Kohl each hit the transfer portal. With some big-time offensive weapons missing, both offenses could be a little disjointed. Go low.

Georgia Southern vs Appalachian State Birmingham Bowl prediction: Under 59.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 57.5.

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At first glance, this number feels justified. Louisiana Tech has the better record, has been far kinder to bettors, and enters this matchup riding a bit of momentum. Coastal Carolina, meanwhile, looks like a team in free fall—three straight losses, the last two coming by blowout margins where the Chanticleers surrendered more than 50 points in each. On paper, it’s easy to understand why the Bulldogs are laying this kind of tag. But dig a layer deeper, and the confidence behind Louisiana Tech quickly erodes. The Bulldogs are being asked to do something they have repeatedly failed to do this season: handle the role of favorite. This is a team that has lost three of its last four games outright when laying points, beginning with a flat performance against Kennesaw State that exposed their limitations. Louisiana Tech’s recent success has come almost exclusively as an underdog, where expectations are lower and pressure is minimal. Asking them to suddenly flip that script and win by margin is a dangerous proposition.

Yes, the Bulldogs have won two straight games, and yes, they did so as slight underdogs. But that’s exactly the issue—those results have inflated their market perception without changing the underlying profile of the team. Louisiana Tech remains volatile, inconsistent, and unreliable when forced to dictate play. That’s the definition of a false favorite. Coastal Carolina, on the other hand, enters this game with nothing to lose. Their recent results have completely removed them from the betting radar, which is precisely why the number has ballooned to this range. This game doesn’t require Coastal to be the better team—only competitive. With Louisiana Tech’s history of failing to capitalize as the chalk, nine points is simply too much to give in a matchup filled with volatility and uncertainty.

Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech prediction: Coastal Carolina +9 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

Bowl games often come down to one simple question: who actually wants to be there? And in this matchup, that question hangs squarely over Tennessee. The Volunteers entered the season with playoff aspirations after last year’s run, but those hopes were extinguished in November with a damaging home loss to Oklahoma. Since then, Tennessee’s resume has been padded with wins over New Mexico State and a Florida team that is in complete turmoil. The season ended on a sour note as well, with the Vols losing at home to Vanderbilt — a game where effort and urgency clearly favored the underdog. A spot that Vandy made the most of while Tennessee was left with even more question marks.

Illinois, meanwhile, views this game very differently. Despite sitting inside the Top Ten in the early going of the regular season, the Illini were never built for a Big Ten title run this season. That much was proven when one draws Indiana, Ohio State, and a road trip to Washington on the schedule and looked non-competitve in none of those contests. Still, Illinois has shown that they can compete physically and punch above their weight in the right spot. A bowl matchup against a brand-name SEC opponent that may already be thinking about 2026 is exactly the kind of opportunity for that to happen. Illinois plays a style of football that can neutralize Tennessee’s biggest strength – their offense. By controlling the line of scrimmage, shortening the game, and keeping possessions limited, the Illini can keep the Vols’ explosive offense on the sideline. That is also key against a Tennessee defense allowing nearly 29 points per game. The Illini may not only be able to mitigate the Volunteers’ offense but can also build a lead to cut their defensive line loose which loves to get into the backfield and disrupt things. With Illinois priced inside a field goal as an underdog, the number suggests this game is a tenable assignment for Illinois. If motivation matters — and in bowl season it always does — the Illini hold those cards too. Illinois outright.

Tennessee vs Illinois prediction: Illinois +115 (Money Line) available at time of publishing. Playable at number.

Tennessee’s offensive reputation naturally pushes the total upward, but this matchup does not favor a shootout if Illinois is competitive — and especially if Illinois wins outright. The Illini’s path to victory is clear: slow the game down, control possession, and keep Tennessee’s offense on the sideline. Illinois is comfortable grinding out long drives, shortening quarters, and turning games into physical contests. That approach directly suppresses total possessions, which is poison for an over at this number.

Tennessee’s defense also plays a role here. While they allow points, that doesn’t automatically translate to a high total. Illinois is more likely to finish drives methodically than strike quickly, which eats clock even when points are scored. Once again, this drains time. There is also strong correlation here. If Illinois is in position to win, they are controlling tempo. If they are controlling tempo, the game will lean towards the under. A high-scoring shootout favors Tennessee and works against the Illini’s strengths. This total assumes pace and fireworks but that only happens if the Volunteers win. We’re backing the Illini. Thus, the under fits the script.

Tennessee vs Illinois prediction: Under 61.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

Bowl season keeps rolling along on Tuesday, and arguably the most fascinating game on the card comes in the form of the Alamo Bowl between the USC Trojans and TCU Horned Frogs. Both of these teams are going to be missing a ton of players heading into this game, which makes this a pretty difficult handicap on paper. On the TCU side of things, quarterback Josh Hoover is out, along with wide receiver Jordan Dwyer and running back Kevorian Barnes. That eliminates a lot of the potential for offense for the Horned Frogs, even against a USC defense that is going to be down a considerable number of pieces of its own. Furthermore, offensive coordinator Kendal Briles is not going to be on the sidelines for this game, so it’s hard to see TCU mustering up a ton of offense in this one.

On the other side of the ball, USC is going to have quarterback Jayden Maiava in this game, as the veteran has re-signed with the Trojans for another season. However, Lincoln Riley’s team is dealing with a ton of roster turnover and will be without some of their best players on Tuesday, including the wide receiver duo of Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. With that in mind, we can expect Riley to lean on his ground game against a TCU defense that hasn’t exactly put up stellar metrics in that department this season. Given the fact that USC’s offense should be a bit more limited than usual and the TCU offense is down multiple key pieces in this game, the under is the only way I can look on Tuesday.

USC vs TCU prediction: Under 55.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

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The Arizona State Sun Devils face the Duke Blue Devils in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, which is played in El Paso. Duke is the champion of the ACC, which is still really odd to say, especially for a team that is 8-5. They have done it most of the season with offense, and it has been enough to make the Blue Devils relevant. ASU, on the other hand, had a disappointing season after making the playoffs the year before. Most of their season was wrecked by injuries, especially to their start QB Sam Leavitt and NFL-caliber WR Jordyn Tyson. Tyson will opt out, while Leavitt is injured but also in the portal. The Sun Devils have been fighting on without their stars, and they will be competitive here, but their depleted roster will likely catch up with them. I prefer Duke -3 in this spot.

ASU has played excellent defense all season, and it has been enough to keep them in most games. Duke has an aggressive offense, and as long as they can hold up against the pass rush of the Sun Devils, Duke should be able to score. My concerns here come on the offensive side for ASU. Kenny Dillingham has a lot of players missing this bowl game, and they were already struggling to score throughout most of the second half of the season. While Duke is a softer defense than most of the Big 12 opponents ASU faced, it is hard to believe in this offensive unit, even with the extra couple of weeks to prepare. Duke, whose roster is mostly intact, should be the better team here, and I will take them as long as it is 3 points or less.

Arizona State vs Duke Prediction: Duke -3 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.