College Football Picks

The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns travel to meet the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Jonesboro in the standalone game Thursday night. Both of these teams need victories, as they each try to keep their hopes alive for a bowl game. Those extra weeks of practice and bowl-game paydays are important to these smaller programs.

Louisiana has rebounded from a 2-6 record to win at South Alabama and home to Texas State, getting back into the mix for a bowl. It has scored 36.5 PPG in the past 2 games, and the offense has been good for 31 or more points in 4 of the past 7 outings. The Cajuns are 4-2 ATS in the past 6 games, too.

Ark State has 2 chances to get a 6th win, punching its ticket to the postseason. It lost to Southern Miss last week, which halted a 4-game win streak. Furthermore, Ark State has covered 5 in a row. The Red Wolves are looking to exorcise some demons against the Ragin’ Cajuns, as Louisiana has won 6 of the past 7 games, while holding a 4-3 ATS edge in that span. Louisiana has scored 27 or more points in each of those 6 wins, too, so it won’t be easy for the Red Wolves. But, Arkansas State is playing much better football lately, and it should finally be able to get over the hump.

Louisiana vs Arkansas State prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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The Florida State Seminoles hit the road for Raleigh on Friday night, and this battle against NC State will come with bowl eligibility for the winner. Both teams enter with 5 victories, 1 short of bowl eligibility. FSU has had its issues on the road this season. It all started with a stunning 46-38 loss in overtime at Virginia, and the season has spiraled from that point. It is 0-3 SU and ATS in 3 game away from home, including a 20-13 loss at Stanford on October 18 as a 17.5-point favorite and a 24-10 loss at Clemson in the most recent trip on November 8. That’s just 11.5 PPG scored on offense, with 22.0 PPG allowed on defense.

For NC State, it was humbled 41-7 at Miami last Saturday, a disappointing result after 2 weeks off following a massive 48-36 win in Raleigh against previously unbeaten Georgia Tech on November 1 as a 5.5-point underdog. Still, NC State is just 1-3 SU and ATS in the past 4 games, but at home it is 4-1 SU, and 3-1 ATS in the past 4. Florida State hasn’t shown an ability to win on the road, so let’s keep rolling with the opponent in those spots, especially since the Wolfpack are catching points at home. NC State is 5-2 ATS in the past 7 in the series, too, winning each of the past 3 meetings in Raleigh since November 3, 2018.

Florida State vs NC State prediction: NC State Wolfpack +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

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San Diego State is currently in the driver seat in the Mountain West, but the second spot in the conference title game is still up for grabs. Two of the teams competing for that spot are the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors and the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, both of whom sit at 4-2 in conference play ahead of their matchup on Friday night. Due to the lack of tiebreakers, both of these teams have to win out to have a chance to play for a conference title – assuming the Aztecs also win out.

The Rainbow Warriors have greatly exceeded expectations this season, especially in conference play. Each of their 4 conference wins came when they were in the underdog role, with a 5th cover in the 2-point loss to Fresno back in September. UNLV, on the other hand, has been all over the place. The Rebels are in the midst of a 2-game winning streak after their 2-game losing streak, but they’ve failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 overall. Three of those 4 non-covers were in the favorite role. When you peel back the curtain even further, you will notice that UNLV hasn’t beaten anyone of note. The Rebels lost to the 2 best conference opponents they played and haven’t beaten a single Mountain West team with a winning record. In fact, they haven’t beaten any team with a winning record this year (at the time of writing, ahead of midweek MACtion). 

UNLV’s struggles against good competition stem from its very poor defense. It ranks 114th in scoring, 130th in total defense, and 132nd in yards per play, and opponents typically find the end zone against this unit once crossing into the red zone more often than not. That will likely spell trouble against the 3rd-most efficient red zone offense in the country in Hawaii. 

A win over the top team in the conference on November 8 restored Hawaii’s chances in the Mountain West, so the Rainbow Warriors should be fired up for this trip to the mainland following a bye that UNLV did not share last week. With a rest and preparation advantage, as well as a defensive advantage, give me Hawaii with that ever-appealing + next to its price. 

Hawaii vs UNLV prediction: Hawaii +3 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to +2. 

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The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have had a solid year in the ACC up to this date. They will get a break from conference action this week when they go head-to-head against the Delaware Blue Hens out of Conference USA. Wake Forest has won five of their last six games. They won their last game 28-12 against North Carolina. The offense looked good against a North Carolina team that is starting to find their footing defensively. Wake Forest ran the ball 39 times for 223 and 3 touchdowns, and quarterback Robby Ashford threw for another 191 yards and 1 touchdown. Delaware has a record of 5-5 this season, and they will be looking to bounce back from a 26-23 loss against Sam Houston last week. Quarterback Nick Minicucci threw for 338 yards and 1 touchdown in this game, but the Blue Hens could not slow down Sam Houston’s running game, allowing 139 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns.

Delaware has had competition this season against a Power Four school. Earlier this season they fell short against Colorado 31-7. Following the loss to Colorado back in the beginning of September, Delaware’s offense has scored 23 or more points in each game. Delaware’s offense is powered by one of the top passers in college football, Nick Minicucci. Minicucci is second in all of college football with 3063 yards passing this season. His favorite targets this season have been Sean Wilson and Kyre Duplessis, who have combined for 1353 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns. Wake Forest’s running game should be able to pick up where it left off, and if the Blue Hens’ defense plays like they did against Sam Houston, should be able to break loose for a couple long runs. Wake Forest should be able to take this game, but I think the Delaware offense does enough to push this game over.

Over 51.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

A midwestern, Big 12 matchup is set for this Saturday when the Kansas Jayhawks take on the Iowa State Cyclones. Kansas has a record of 5-5 this season and a conference record of 3-4. The Jayhawks have lost three of their last four games, including their last loss against Arizona 24-20. Quarterback Jalon Daniels led Kansas in passing and rushing yards. He threw for 199 yards and 1 touchdown, and he also ran for 74 yards and 1 touchdown. Iowa State has a record this season of 6-4 and a conference record of 3-4. The Cyclones were able to break a four game losing streak last game with a 20-17 win against TCU. Quarterback Rocco Becht was not his best, throwing for only 111 yards and 2 interceptions, but Iowa State was able to pull ahead late thanks to a punt return for a touchdown late in the 4th quarter. 

Both of these teams have fallen below expectations for this season. Iowa State was eyeing a Big 12 championship at the beginning of the season, and Kansas was looking to make more improvements from their disappointing 2024 season. As these teams are both looking to even up their conference records, I’m looking at the level of quarterback play from each team. Kansas is led by senior quarterback Jalon Daniels. Daniels has again put up a stellar season, throwing for 2190 yards, 21 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. Daniels has been dynamic on offense, limited turnovers, and has looked great in recent games. Iowa State’s quarterback, Rocco Becht, has been the opposite. He has thrown for 2230 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Becht has been playing his worst football in recent games. Becht has thrown 7 interceptions in his last four games. Neither defense has played well, with both units allowing more than 28 points per game in their last five games, but right now I am trusting Daniels more with the football than I am Becht.

Kansas +4 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We have a fascinating contest on our hands on Saturday as the Louisville Cardinals will face off against the SMU Mustangs in a clash between a couple of ACC sides heading in opposite directions. This is a terrific situational spot for SMU as Rhett Lashlee’s team is coming off a bye following an impressive showing against Boston College the week before. The Mustangs are live to make the ACC Championship and they’ll need to win their final couple of games against Louisville and California in order to stay alive in the race for a potential playoff berth. Despite getting off to a pretty slow start, the Mustangs have quietly won 5 of their last 6 games and has been especially solid at home, where they’ll catch a Louisville team that is entering this game following back-to-back crushing losses against California and Clemson by a combined 4 points. The Cardinals are now firmly out of the ACC title game picture after looking like the team to beat in the conference just a few weeks ago. With that in mind, a trip to Texas to face a well-rested SMU team is not exactly an easy task for Jeff Brohm and company.

Even setting aside the spot, it’s not as if the Louisville offense has been lighting the world on fire in recent weeks. Miller Moss has struggled under center and the Cardinals typically reliable ground attack has stalled out with running back Isaac Brown out of the lineup. That doesn’t bode well against an SMU defensive front that has tons of talent and has been excellent against the run to this point in the season (21st in rushing success rate allowed, 10th in EPA per rush allowed, 17th in Early Downs EPA). Louisville is not a team that is built to rally from behind, so if Kevin Jennings and the strong SMU rushing attack can get on the board early against a shaky Cardinals rush defense, this is a spot where things could unravel for a Louisville team that is in free-fall at the moment. Ultimately, the Mustangs are the only way I can look in this matchup.

Louisville vs SMU prediction: SMU -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Let’s just start with this: picking Virginia Tech to cover against a far more talented Miami team is a bold play, and it is the sort of thing that if we are wrong, we will feel stupid and wonder what we were ever thinking in the first place. There, I said it. Still, when the Miami Hurricanes roll into Blacksburg on Saturday afternoon to face the Virginia Tech Hokies, something about this game feels like a trap. Miami is feeling some momentum because the playoff committee seems to like them, even though their chances of making the ACC title game are quite slim. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is a bad football team that made a coaching change midseason, and things have gone downhill from there. So of course the Hurricanes should blow out the Hokies, right? I am suspicious. Give me the Hokies +17.5.

This line opened at 15.5, and it pushed through the key number of 17 almost immediately. I think there is a solid chance this is a 17-pt game exactly, and Vegas was right in the first place. We are in a trap spot for Miami; the Hurricanes are on the road, have some momentum, and have Pitt looming on the horizon. The Hokies are playing their last home game, and for much of this roster, that will be it. They just hired a new coach in James Franklin, and if anyone has eligibility and wants to stay, they need to put down some tape against the Canes. Miami is also in a place where they have to feel like they need to score style points, and very often when teams are trying to win by 40, they end up fighting to win at all. There is no real statistical reason to think the Hokies can hang around here, but a low-scoring contest that goes something like 30-13 is very possible.

Miami vs Virginia Tech Prediction: Virginia Tech Hokies +17.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Minnesota Golden Gophers will travel this Saturday to take on the Northwestern Wildcats in a Big 10 matchup. The Gophers have a record of 6-4, but all four losses have come on the road. They will try to get their first road win of the season against Northwestern. Minnesota’s last loss came at the hands of Oregon 42-13. Quarterback Drake Lindsey threw for 138 yards and 1 touchdown, but the Gophers defense allowed a recently struggling Oregon offense to explode for 42 points. Like Oregon, Northwestern will be looking to turn around their recent struggles. The Wildcats have lost their last three games, including their last loss 24-22 against Michigan. Northwestern led this game late, but they could not hold on as Michigan took the lead on a late field goal. Northwestern’s defense did force two interceptions, and will be looking to create more turnovers this week against Minnesota.

This should be a good opportunity where Northwestern’s defense can carry them to victory. Northwestern’s defense has been their strength all season, ranking in the top half of the FBS in yards and points allowed per game. They flexed their muscles against Michigan, but came up just short. Now they get a second chance on their home field against a Minnesota team that has really struggled away from home. The Gophers have only averaged 8.3 points per game when playing on the road this season. Against Oregon, they were able to break an 11-quarter drought where their offense was left without a touchdown. The defense has also been Minnesota’s strength, but they have also shown inconsistencies on the road, allowing over 40 points scored in all of their last three road games. Quarterback Preston Stone has seemingly done just enough all season, and he should have the opportunity to get enough things done against a Gophers defense that ranks 64th against the pass. I like for Northwestern to break their losing streak against a Minnesota team that has not shown any life away from their home field.

Northwestern -3.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights hit the road for Columbus to battle the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes at The Horseshoe. It’s the penultimate game of the season for both teams. Rutgers has 5 victories this season, and it needs a win against the Buckeyes or at home against Penn State next Saturday to qualify for a bowl game. Rutgers has won 2 of the past 3 games to keep its postseason hopes alive, while also going 2-1 ATS. The under has cashed in each of the past 3 games, too, while going 4-1 in the past 5 outings. The Scarlet Knights have scored 19 or fewer points in 3 of the past 5 games.

For the Buckeyes, they’ve allowed 10 or more points in 3 straight games, but they’re still allowed 75 points all season, or 7.5 points per game. The under is 3-2 in the past 5 games, and 5-3 across the past 8 outings. However, at home, the over is 3-0 in the past 3 conference games at the Horseshoe, and 4-1 in the past 5 home games dating back to September 6. Ohio State has dominated this series since Rutgers joined the Big Ten, winning all 10 meetings since October 18, 2014, while the over has connected in 5 straight outings. Ohio State has scored 49 or more points in 9 of the past 10 meetings, with the lone exception a 35-16 victory in the most recent battle on November 4, 2023 in Piscataway. Go high, and feel confident in doing so.

Rutgers vs Ohio State prediction: Over 55.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 56.5.

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Anytime a team is laying north of 50 points in mid-November, bettors should immediately ask a simple question: What is the motivation for the favorite to run up the score? In this case, Texas A&M has every reason not to. The Aggies are days away from the biggest game of their season — a Thanksgiving weekend showdown in Austin against Texas. That matchup is not just about rivalry pride; it’s effectively A&M’s ticket to Atlanta. If the Aggies go into Austin and beat the Longhorns, they’ll position themselves to play for the SEC Championship and perhaps even grab a seat inside the top 4 of the College Football Playoff. Everything they’ve worked for funnels directly into next weekend.

Which leads us to this: What benefit is there for A&M to empty the tank against Samford? The honest answer is none. The Bulldogs are essentially a live-action scrimmage for the Aggies — a tune-up at best. There is no incentive to put anything meaningful on tape, risk injuries to starters, or burn high-value plays that Texas could scout. This is a pure manage-and-move-on spot for the home side, and that opens multiple pathways for Samford to cover. First, A&M has to actually score 56 just to push this number to the threshold. That’s no small ask, even against an FCS opponent, especially when the second team — and likely the third team — will play the majority of the second half. A&M may get into the 40’s, maybe the low 50’s at most, but surpassing 55.5 requires both aggression and intention, neither of which align with where the Aggies are mentally right now. Second, if Samford even scratches the scoreboard — a field goal, a broken play, a late touchdown against A&M’s deep reserves — the Aggies would need close to 60 to beat this number. That’s probably not going to happen here. There is no reason for the Aggies to get cute.

Samford vs. Texas A&M prediction: Samford Bulldogs +55.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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Georgia enters this matchup looking every bit like the best team in the nation, and this spot against Charlotte sets up as another opportunity for the Bulldogs to show how far ahead they are of most opponents. Last week’s 35–10 dismantling of Texas in Athens was another indication that this team is hitting its stride, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, where the Bulldogs continue to generate short fields and even direct scoring opportunities. The week prior, they handled Mississippi State by 21 on the road, controlling every phase from start to finish.

Laying this many points is never comfortable, and Georgia has no incentive to run up the score unnecessarily. However, the danger with fading the Bulldogs comes from the fact that they score in all three phases. Their defense pressures every snap, creates turnovers, and often converts those into points. Their special teams consistently flip the field and have the talent to break a return at any moment. When you combine that with an offense that’s improving weekly and a coaching staff emphasizing continued growth, the margin can escalate naturally. Charlotte simply doesn’t have the personnel to hold up for 4 quarters, and Georgia’s depth ensures the level rarely drops when backups rotate in. Even without forcing the issue, Georgia can get into the high 40s, and if the defense sets up or produces a score or two, covering becomes very realistic.

Charlotte vs Georgia prediction: Georgia Bulldogs -43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -44.

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James Madison enters this matchup riding a wave of momentum and national recognition. At 9–1 overall and perfect at home, the Dukes have put themselves squarely in position to become the potential Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoff if the AAC continues cannibalizing itself. They’re 7–3 against the spread, consistent, efficient, and well-coached—everything you want from a team pushing for a major postseason berth. But that success brings pressure, and this is the part of the season where teams in JMU’s position can tighten up. With their division already clinched and a season-ending showdown with Coastal Carolina on deck, the mental landscape becomes complicated.

Washington State, meanwhile, is the classic volatility team. Its ceiling is high, and its floor is bottomless. The Cougars lost to an Oregon State team that hadn’t beaten an FBS opponent all year. They gave up 59 to North Texas, and they narrowly avoided disaster against Idaho. On the other hand, they also pushed Ole Miss to the brink in Oxford, nearly won at Virginia, and blasted San Diego State 36–13. You never know which version is showing up, but when the Cougars are engaged, they’re a genuine threat. The number offered here suggests the dangerous iteration of the Cougs show up. Upset potential is high here, grab the points.

Washington State vs James Madison prediction: Washington State Cougars +13.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to +13.

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The total ties directly into the side. If Washington State covers, it likely happens because they dictate pace and keep James Madison from pulling the game into the high-scoring range. WSU’s competitive outings typically land in the low-40s. We’ve already seen James Madison get pulled into grind-it-out games, such as the rock fight with Georgia State that finished 14-7. If this becomes a possession-by-possession battle—which is the exact script WSU needs to be a problem for the Dukes —then the under 42 makes sense.

Matching the side and total gives a clear correlated angle: a tight, controlled, lower-tempo game that keeps the Cougars within reach and keeps the scoreboard constrained. These 2 plays can be combined at certain outfits as a correlated parlay and that would be recommended. Under is the move here.

Washington State vs James Madison prediction: Under 42 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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Alabama finds itself in an unusual spot this week. Just seven days ago, the Tide were the most heavily-backed side on the college football board as a six-point home favorite against Oklahoma. Not only did they fail to cover—they lost outright, 23–21. That result dramatically changes the market’s perception heading into this matchup with Eastern Illinois. Suddenly, bettors will be hesitant to lay a big number with Alabama, and as a result, we’re getting the Tide cheaper than we would’ve had they handled their business last week.

This becomes an ideal bounce-back situation. With Auburn looming and playoff hopes now extremely fragile, Kalen DeBoer has every incentive to sharpen his team and eliminate the sloppiness that cost them against the Sooners. Alabama rarely stacks poor performances back-to-back, and this is exactly the type of opponent they can use to reset their rhythm, establish physical dominance, and get their confidence in order before the Iron Bowl. Eastern Illinois simply doesn’t have the personnel to keep Alabama uncomfortable for four quarters, and emotionally, the Tide should be fully locked in. Last week’s loss creates urgency, and a focused Alabama team laying a discounted number is a spot worth playing. This is a classic “take it out on the opponent” setting.

Eastern Illinois vs Alabama prediction: Alabama minus the points. Point spread to be determined.

The Arkansas Razorbacks enter a tough road matchup against the Texas Longhorns on an eight-game losing streak, though four of the last five losses have been decided by three points or less. While Texas certainly has more to play for, the Longhorns are coming off arguably their worst performance of the season in a 35-10 loss against Georgia. Stylistically, this matchup bodes well proven by last week’s one-point loss on the road against LSU. Just like the Tigers, Texas boasts a slow-paced, inconsistent offense with an elite defensive unit. While the Arkansas defense has been horrendous, the offense is capable of keeping them in games even against top defenses.

Arkansas ranks top-10 in points per quality drive and offensive success rate while coming in at 11th in net points per drive on offense. On the contrary, Texas ranks 91st in offensive success rate and 61st in net points per drive. You could make an argument the Razorbacks have the better quarterback in this equation with Taylen Green, and Texas struggled last time out against a dual-threat QB as Gunnar Stockten tallied 5 total TDs and 29 yards on the ground in last week’s matchup. It’s an awkward point spread, but I’ll back Arkansas to continue making these conference matchups close and cover the spread on the road.

Arkansas vs Texas prediction: Arkansas +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

There’s an emotional contrast between these two teams that shapes this matchup far more than the box scores do. Duke has been quietly crafting a narrative—maybe they could slip into Charlotte and perhaps inadverently derail the ACC’s playoff hopes while doing so. Then came last week. Virginia didn’t just beat them; the Cavaliers effectively extinguished the Blue Devils’ entire dream scenario. This is a quintessential letdown spot.

North Carolina arrives from the opposite direction—backed into a corner, but still dangerous. The Bill Belichick hire was supposed to stabilize the program and elevate the Tar Heels, yet the season has unraveled into a frustrating 4–6. They lack a signature win, momentum has been elusive, and bowl eligibility now hangs by a thread. That’s precisely why this game looms so large. In many ways, this is their bowl game. A rivalry setting, a chance to salvage pride, and a must-win scenario to keep bowl hopes alive all collide here. Duke is laying a modest number despite facing a losing team on the road, suggesting oddsmakers aren’t convinced the Blue Devils will deliver their best version after last week’s emotional drain. And Duke is exactly the type of team that can play down to an opponent’s level when the stakes suddenly disappear. That makes the upside of the money line worth pursuing.

Duke vs North Carolina prediction: North Carolina Tar Heels ML  (+210) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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While there are plenty of games that should captivate college football fans across the nation on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games that should have your attention is a big time contest in the AAC, where the East Carolina Pirates will visit the UTSA Roadrunners in a compelling clash that should produce plenty of fireworks. This is one of the better spots of the Week 13 slate, and I intend to take advantage of it by backing the Roadrunners to win as short underdogs at home.

On one side, East Carolina is in the midst of a very good run of form and the Pirates are coming off one of their biggest wins in years against Memphis in a game that thrust them back into the AAC title race and potentially even an outside shot at the College Football Playoff if a couple of dominoes fall in the Sun Belt and Mountain West. East Carolina’s offense has steadily improved as the season has gone on, as quarterback Katin Houser has now thrown for nearly 3,000 yards while tossing 15 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. However, this is a brutal road trip for a Pirates team that has struggled away from home against quality competition this season, and has had trouble with UTSA in the Alamodome in years past. Given the enormity of last week’s win, don’t be surprised if East Carolina comes out a bit slow in what could be a flat spot for Blake Harrell’s team. 

As for the hosts, UTSA has been an up-and-down bunch all season long, but the Roadrunners are likely a bit better than their record given how a few of their results look in hindsight. Historically, Jeff Traylor has been an excellent head coach against the spread in November and his team certainly looks like they’ve turned a corner offensively in recent weeks, with Owen McCown and company rolling through the likes of Tulane and Charlotte at home. Where UTSA has gotten into trouble has been against psychical and fast teams on the road (USF and North Texas come to mind), but that’s not the situation that they’ll see in this one. The Roadrunners pass defense is still an issue but they should be able to slow down the East Carolina ground attack and keep the Pirates behind the chains at points in this contest. And because they play at an extremely fast pace, East Carolina has not shown that it can consistently grind out close wins, particularly away from home. Given the fact that I expect this one to be a close contest from start to finish, there’s some inherent value on the home underdog on Saturday. 

East Carolina vs UTSA prediction: UTSA ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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The Vanderbilt Commodores needed a week off after playing LSU, Missouri, Texas, and Auburn all in a row – each of those contests being decided by 1 score. At 8-2, the Commodores still have an outside chance at a College Football Playoff berth, but they must win both of their remaining games to have a shot – starting with a home date against Kentucky on Saturday. The Wildcats have surprisingly won 3 games in a row, including a win at Auburn that sent Hugh Freeze packing and a 38-7 domination of Florida at home in Lexington. 

Despite its win at Auburn, Kentucky hasn’t been very good on the road. In fact, the Wildcats have scored just 37 points in 3 true road games this year, which makes it hard to trust them in this matchup. Vanderbilt’s offense remains one of the most potent in the sport, sitting 4th in yards per play and third-down conversion rate on the season, as well as top-20 in PPA per play and points per quality drive since Week 8 despite playing a strong assortment of defenses in that span. 

Moreover, the Commodores have one of the strongest red-zone offenses in the country, especially when playing at home. Not only do they score on over 96% of red zone trips at home, but they have the 2nd-highest red-zone touchdown rate in the country – converting 37 of their 47 total red-zone trips into touchdowns. Kentucky is nowhere close to this level of red-zone production, converting fewer than 67% of road red-zone trips into any sort of points.

Kentucky has covered in 4 of its last 5 games, but the Wildcats have seen just 1 above-average offense in that span – the Tennesse Volunteers. Coincidentally, Kentucky did not cover in that game. In fact, the Wildcats surrendered 56 points in that one. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has been an ATS ATM this year at 7-2-1, including 3 straight covers as a home favorite. With everything to play for, look for Vanderbilt to benefit from extra rest and preparation and win this one by double digits – setting a perfect scene for an in-state showdown against Tennessee in the final week of the regular season to decide its postseason fate.

Kentucky vs Vanderbilt prediction: Vanderbilt Commodores -9.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -10. 

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The Utah Utes are rolling right now with their sights set on a potential trip to the Big 12 title game, while Kansas State is fighting for their bowl game eligibility sitting at 5-5 overall. Regardless of each squad’s motivation factor entering this matchup, this is quite a hefty point spread sitting at -17.5 in Utah’s favor at the time of writing. While the Utes have won their last three by an average margin of 34.6 points per game, they’ve also faced off against what are likely the three worst defenses in the Big 12.

The Wildcats’ defensive unit isn’t world beaters, but they’ve made some big plays throughout the 2025 campaign and rank a respectable 54th in net points per drive and 47th in defensive success rate. Offensively, the Wildcats have posted at least 34 points in half of their games this season and are slightly above average ranking 60th in net points per drive. With all things considered, I’ll take Kansas State to cover on the road.

Kansas State vs Utah prediction: Kansas State +17.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The Maryland Terrapins have lost six straight entering Saturday’s home contest against a top-20 Michigan Wolverines squad. While all hope might seem lost, the Terrapins have their backs against the wall if they hope to make a bowl game this season. Half of Maryland’s losses have come in one-possession games as the defense isn’t all too bad — ranking 43rd in net points per drive allowed — but their recent schedule has seen some high-powered offensive units like Indiana and Illinois. Michigan ranks 91st in plays per second this season and has a top-20 rushing play percentage in FBS, meaning the Wolverines lean on methodical drives while feeding the run game. In other words, the offense isn’t built to pull away via explosive plays.

Michigan has failed to cover as double-digit favorites in three straight games, escaping with narrow wins over the last two weeks over Purdue and Northwestern. The recent struggles are largely due to some turnover issues from QB Bryce Underwood which could continue in this matchup as the Terrapins have the 12th-best turnover margin in FBS. With all things considered, I’ll take Maryland to cover at home.

Michigan vs Maryland prediction: Maryland +13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

It’s been a rough year for the South Carolina Gamecocks, who have lost 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 after Saturday’s cataclysmic meltdown in College Station. South Carolina held a 30-3 lead at halftime over No. 3 Texas A&M, but forgot to come out of the locker room after the intermission. The Gamecocks never scored another point and eventually lost the game 31-30. 

Objectively, the Gamecocks have had a brutal schedule, as 6 of their last 7 opponents were all ranked at the time of kick-off. Going one step further, each of their last 4 opponents are squarely in the College Football Playoff picture among the top-12 teams in the country. However, that won’t be the case this week, as the Gamecocks will benefit from the classic late-season SEC buy-game when they host the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers on Saturday (even as an SEC fan, I hope these go away with the new 9-game conference schedule) .

Some will argue that this will be a flat spot for South Carolina off the heartbreak at Texas A&M, especially considering the Gamecocks won’t make a bowl and have their rival Clemson on deck. However, I disagree with that sentiment and would argue the Gamecocks will use this as an opportunity to unleash frustration on an inferior opponent. It’s certainly a massive number to lay with a team that has not instilled much trust in bettors alike, but the talent gap in this matchup is massive – and there is certainly nothing to write home about this Coastal Carolina defense. The ‘Chants are outside the top 100 in yards per play allowed this year, and more recently, they are 75th in points allowed per quality drive and 98th in PPA per play since Week 8. Look for the Gamecocks to finally have a complete performance in this one. 

Coastal Carolina vs South Carolina prediction: South Carolina Gamecocks -23.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -24.

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The Air Force Falcons will host the New Mexico Lobos this Saturday evening. Air Force has a record of 3-7 this season, with a Mountain West conference record of 2-4. The Falcons have won two of their last four games, but they are coming off a 26-16 loss to Connecticut in their last game. Air Force ran their usual script of a run-heavy attack. They totalled 290 yards rushing on 58 attempts in their previous game. New Mexico has a record of 7-3 this season, with a Mountain West conference record of 4-2. The Lobos have won their last four games, including a 20-17 win last week against Colorado State. Quarterback Jack Layne led New Mexico with 226 yards passing and running back D.J. McKinney ran for another 52 yards and 1 touchdown. The close victory was a bit surprising, as the Lobos were double-digit favorites at home against Colorado State. 

New Mexico has played above expectations this season. They are on a sizable winning streak and are sitting near the top of the Mountain West. There are two areas I’m looking at for New Mexico to continue their winning season. First is the New Mexico defense being able to stop the Air Force running game. Air Force’s gameplan is simple, and that is to run the ball over and over until the other defense can’t stop it. Quarterback Liam Szarka will be someone to key in on. Szarka is tied for 6th in the FBS with 13 rushing touchdowns. Out of all quarterbacks, he is 2nd on that list. New Mexico’s defensive strength this year has come against the run, only allowing 105.8 yards per game. That number ranks 18th in the nation. But it won’t just be about stopping the run early. When the other team is running it over 50 times, it is important that your offense can sustain drives to give your defense a chance to rest. Air Force currently ranks 135th in defensive third down percentage, allowing opponents to convert over 50% of the time. If the Lobos can win these two areas of the game, I expect for them to find a way to win on the road.

New Mexico -3.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Georgia Tech’s ACC Championship hopes are in the balance this weekend when the 9-1 Yellow Jackets host the 7-3 Pitt Panthers in Atlanta. The Jackets barely – and I mean barely – survived on the road at Boston College last week. They needed 628 total yards and a 19-point 4th quarter to win the game 36-34, as a first-half fumble and missed field goal suppressed Georgia Tech’s scoring before the intermission. 

As for Pitt, the Panthers managed to keep it close against Notre Dame for all of about 6 minutes before the wheels fell off when Mason Heintschel threw a pick 6 to put the Irish up 14 – a lead from which they never looked back. Coach Pat Narduzzi won’t be mad though, right? Like he said, the Notre Dame game didn’t matter, even if the Panthers lost by 100. 

Georgia Tech’s defense is extremely worrisome. The Yellow Jackets are outside the top 70 in scoring and outside the top 100 in total defense, which leaves them exposed every single week. Look no further than last week, when the Jackets surrendered more than 30 points and 500 yards to a Boston College offense that had not surpassed 24 points since Week 2. However, I’m still siding with Tech in this one, mostly because of QB Haynes King.

King has been one of the most reliable QBs in the country this year. He has just 2 interceptions, and you could argue they weren’t his fault considering he has 0 turnover-worthy plays according to PFF. King also sits top-10 in completion percentage and has been sacked just 8 times this year – mostly due to his dynamism as a runner. The GT signal-caller leads the team with over 800 rushing yards, has ripped off 25 10+ yard runs, and leads the country in non-RB rushing touchdowns this season.

As a team, Tech averages less than 1 giveaway per game against FBS opponents, which is tied for 12th nationally. Meanwhile, Pitt ranks 114th, averaging nearly 2 giveaways per game. Narduzzi made the switch from Eli Holstein to Heintschel in an attempt to find stability at the QB position, but Heintschel has been just as careless with the ball as his predecessor – posting 6 interceptions and 13 turnover-worthy plays in 6 starts. Five of those interceptions and 7 of those turnover-worthy plays came on the road. 

Being the veteran home team with the more trustworthy QB, I like the Yellow Jackets to get the win in their final ACC game and punch their ticket to the conference championship in Charlotte – but I’m wary of laying points with them after their defensive showing last week. Hopefully they were just looking ahead to this game? 

Pitt vs Georgia Tech prediction: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML (-128) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -150.

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It’s hard to like anything other than points in a Georgia Tech game at this point. While the Yellow Jackets are very run heavy, they create big plays at a top-20 rate and have been fairly effective at getting to and putting up points in the red zone – though their red-zone touchdown rate could be a bit better. The same could be said for the Pitt Panthers, who are 5th in red-zone trips but 106th in touchdown rate once crossing the opposing 20-yard line. Like Tech, the Panthers are top-40 in plays of at least 20 yards, which of course lends right into their propensity to find the red zone. 

For as efficient as Pitt has been defensively at times this season, the Panthers really struggle with their backs against the wall. Of the 26 red zone trips allowed, opponents have punched it into the end zone 18 times against the Panthers, which makes me think the Yellow Jackets will have success finishing drives with touchdowns so long as they can consistently get deep into Pitt territory. For what it’s worth, every capable offense the Panthers have played dropped at least 30 on them. On the other side, Georgia Tech’s defensive issues are household knowledge at this point. The Yellow Jackets, more likely than not, are going to give up a few scores here. I’m expecting a shootout. 

Pitt vs Georgia Tech prediction: Over 61.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 62.5.

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We head to Camp Randall on Saturday night for a classic B1G showdown between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers are having a disastrous season at 3-7 and with only a single conference win. They are still playing with pride though, and they are making teams work to beat them. Illinois is quietly having a strong season, yet no one seems to respect what the Illini are doing. They have 3 losses, and they are losses that nearly anyone would take—Ohio State, Indiana, and at Washington. In short, they are 7-1 this season against anyone who is not in the top 2 in the nation. Illinois is good, and the Illini should cover this one, even in a tough road spot. Give me Illinois -7.5.

The problem for the Badgers is the offense. They just cannot score. They have only eclipsed 10 points one time in their past 7 games, and that was a 13-10 win against Washington. Illinois is a solid team, and way better than the level of respect they are given nationally. The Badger defense may slow them down, but how many times do you really need to score to win and cover in this spot? A simple 20-10 win is very achievable, and this Illini offense is more than capable of that. For me, this just comes down to a total lack of faith in the Wisconsin offense. Give me the Fighting Bielemas.

Illinois vs Wisconsin prediction: Illinois Fighting Illini -7.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The North Texas Mean Green head from Denton to Houston to battle the Rice Owls in Houston in an intra-Texas American Conference battle. UNT is looking to keep it possible, but faint, hopes alive for spot in the College Football Playoff, too. The Mean Green have been one of the most potent offenses in the nation, too, going for 489.6 total yards and 307.3 passing yards per game, both ranking sixth in the country. It also has 182.3 rushing yards per game, 40th in the country, while ranking No. 1 overall with 45.3 PPG. Defensively, North Texas does struggle to stop the run, allowing 202.7 yards per game, and that’s been an Achilles heel.

For Rice, it cashed the Under in a 24-17 win over UAB last time out, but the Over has cashed in three of the past four games, with the defense allowing 27 or more points in four of the past five outings. That’s ominous with North Texas looming on the horizon. The Owls really struggle offensively, although it has posted 211.1 yards per game, ranking 18th in the country, and that’s bad news for UNT’s struggling rushing defense. But, Rice allows 27.9 PPG, ranking 89th in the country, and that means North Texas should come close to its season average in points. If so, the Over should be a slam-dunk play in the Space City.

Over 55.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 57.5.

The under is directly tied to the Gators’ winning formula. Florida cannot afford a shootout. Their path is built on defense, controlled possessions, and forcing Tennessee into long drives. If they get the early lead and lean into their pass rush and run defense, this game becomes a grind. Florida winning correlates strongly with a game in the 40’s or low 50’s — not one pushing toward 60.

If Florida wins, it won’t be a track meet. The Gators will rely on their defensive front to disrupt Tennessee, shorten possessions, and keep this game on their terms. They will also be relying on the Florida faithful to be disruptive in The Swamp. If Tennessee is able to turn this into a shootout, Florida is in trouble as they likely can’t hold serve. When the Gators came close to beating Georgia, it was a lower-scoring affair. When they beat Texas, the game was defined by field position and optimizing points. We are rolling with the Gators to win and thus the under is conducive to back here, as well.

Tennessee vs Florida prediction: Under 57 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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Everything about this matchup points to Florida being live. When a ranked Tennessee team travels into a hostile environment and is still only laying a short line to a 3–7 opponent, that tells you the market isn’t buying the Vols – and they shouldn’t. Tennessee has been wildly inconsistent and has repeatedly shown defensive vulnerability, giving up 33 to Oklahoma, 34 to Kentucky, 37 to Alabama, 31 to Arkansas, and 34 to Mississippi State. That kind of performance profile is the exact opposite of what you want when you’re laying road chalk.

Florida, meanwhile, has had a disappointing season in the standings, but the Gators have been a different animal at home. The Gators already beat Texas in Gainesville, sit at 3–1 in the Swamp, and easily could be 4–0 if not for letting the USF game slip away late. At home, this is a tough, physical defense with a pass rush that can create chaos. They’ve also won 7 of the last 10 vs. Tennessee, and rivalry familiarity matters in a matchup where motivation tilts heavily toward the underdog: this is Florida’s de facto bowl game. A loss eliminates them from bowl contention entirely; a win keeps hope alive. Tennessee has nothing truly tangible on the line — no playoff path, no major stakes — and when a ranked team goes on the road in that kind of scenario, lack of urgency becomes a real factor. If the Vols start slow or let Florida dictate the tempo early, they are absolutely vulnerable to an upset. We’re backing UF to pull it off.

Tennessee vs Florida prediction: Florida Gators ML (+165) available at time of publishing. Playable at number.

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This is all about LSU’s mentality and motivation, or lack thereof. The Tigers have completely unraveled this season, and the program feels like it’s stuck in neutral. They still don’t know who their next head coach will be, players are already thinking about the offseason, and the team is essentially going through the motions at this point. That is not the kind of mindset you want laying more than three touchdowns.

Western Kentucky, meanwhile, comes in at 8–2 with real momentum and something to play for. The Hilltoppers see this game as an opportunity—these chances don’t come around often for a Group of Five team. They get to walk into Tiger Stadium against a brand-name SEC opponent that clearly isn’t invested in finishing the season strong. Western Kentucky has every reason to treat this as its statement game before its finale against Jacksonville State. When you put a focused, hungry 8–2 team against a checked-out roster with no direction, this many points becomes hard to ignore. LSU may still win on raw talent, but covering this kind of number requires intensity, attention to detail, and motivation—none of which LSU has shown. Western Kentucky should compete from start to finish.

Western Kentucky vs LSU prediction: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +22.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +22.

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The key battle on the Big 12 schedule Saturday features the BYU Cougars at the Cincinnati Bearcats. Both teams have eyes on the Big 12 championship game, but that road goes through this specific matchup for both of them. BYU has only a single loss, and that was to Texas Tech. Cincinnati has 2 conference losses, first to Utah and then last week to Arizona. The Bearcats have to win, and they would still need help; BYU controls their own destiny at this point. Both the stats and metrics as well as the eye test say that BYU is the better football team, and that is how I am going to play this one. Give me BYU -2.5.

The Bearcat schedule was soft for the first half of the year, but they have been exposed the last two weeks. First, Utah absolutely bullied them and pushed them around on both sides of the ball, controlling the line of scrimmage. Last week, Arizona surprised them with the better offensive attack. I think the hot start for Cincinnati has caused us to think too highly of them at this point. BYU is a bully team. They are big, strong, and prefer to push people around. They are most similar to Utah, who clobbered the Bearcats, and the only team they haven’t been able to bully this season is the Red Raiders. I expect BYU to impose their will and play their style, and they should hand Cincinnati its third straight loss.

BYU vs Cincinnati Prediction: BYU -2.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This point total seems a touch high to me. The Bearcats have garnered a reputation for being a high-octane offense behind quarterback Brandon “Scorsby” Sorsby. That reputation, however, was largely built against softer opponents. Against more formidable defenses, the Bearcats have been more pedestrian. They lit up the scoreboard against Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Baylor, all teams with awful defenses. They scored only 17 in the opener against Nebraska, 20 against UCF, 14 at Utah, and struggled to 24 points against Arizona last week (who is just an average defense). I think BYU is likely to choke down the scoring for the Bearcats.

BYU, for their part, prefers to run the ball, eat the clock, and grind their way down the field as they slowly demoralize the opponent. I think this game stays close, and if it does, coach Sitaki will make careful, conservative decisions and avoid any big mistakes or momentum swings. I think he knows that if things just run their course, his squad should be able to wear down the Bearcats and win this game in the end. We might be surprised to find this game played in the 20s, not the 30s. I’ll take the under.

BYU vs Cincinnati Prediction: Under 54.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Utah State Aggies head to The Valley to battle the Fresno State Bulldogs for a key Mountain West Conference game on Saturday night. Utah State is reeling after coming up short in an upset bid at UNLV. It had several chances to win, and attain bowl eligibility, but Utah State had tremendous difficulties in the kicking game, helping it come up short. Utah State also blew a chance at a shot in the Mountain West Conference championship game, too. It needs a win at Fresno, or home to Boise State next Saturday, if it hopes to qualify for a bowl game. Utah State is winless in five games on the road this season, but it has covered three times.

Fresno State is very much in the mix for a conference title spot, especially thanks to a huge win at Boise State a couple of weeks ago. It is a game back of San Diego State for the top spot, while tied with four other teams in a logjam for second place at 4-2 in the league. Fresno State has won and covered the past two games, while the Under has cashed in three in a row, and five of the past six games. The Bulldogs have leaned on defense, allowing 23 or fewer points in six of the past seven games. The Aggies have cashed Under in three of the past four games, too. We’ll go low on the total in this important game.

Under 51.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 51.