The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 290 will see Brendan Allen take on Christian Leroy Duncan. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight Division. Allen enters this fight with an MMA record of 27-7 and 16-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. Allen is absorbing 3.78 strikes and has a striking defense of 47%. His grappling is also strong, averaging 1.52 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. Allen has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 57%.
Duncan enters this fight with an MMA record of 15-2 and 8-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.45 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. Duncan absorbs 2.36 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling has not been strong, averaging just 0.43 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 20%, and his takedown defense is 57%.
For this fight, we will be looking for Duncan to pull off the small upset. Duncan appears to be in better form, as he is 5-0 in his last 5 UFC fights, while Allen is 3-2 in the UFC over the same stretch. Further, Duncan has the advantage in striking volume, while also having a strong takedown defense to mitigate the advantage Allen has in grappling. Additionally, Duncan absorbs far fewer strikes compared to Allen. For that reason, backing Duncan to win will be our best bet.
