UFC Freedom 250 Best Bets: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
UFC Freedom 250 is scheduled for Sunday, June 14th at the White House, featuring a Lightweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje and a Heavyweight Interim title fight between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane. I have 3 best bets for the highly anticipated UFC event, so let’s get right into the breakdown, and be sure to check out all of our **UFC Freedom 250 predictions**.
UFC Freedom 250 Best Bet: Josh Hokit Win by KO/TKO Derrick Lewis (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook. Playable to -125.
The fourth fight on the main card at UFC Freedom 250 will see Josh Hokit take on Derrick Lewis in the Heavyweight division. Hokit enters this fight with a perfect 4-0 mark in the UFC, while he’s averaging 9.25 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 62%. On the other end, Hokit absorbs 6.81 strikes and has a striking defense of 44%. On the mat, his grappling has been elite in the UFC, averaging 3.89 takedowns every 15 minutes with an accuracy of 43% and a takedown defense of 75%.
Hokit is the significant favorite, and for good reason, so let’s pivot to the winning-method market. Hokit has won 3 of his 4 UFC fights by KO/TKO. Meanwhile, Lewis has been chinny throughout his UFC career, losing 8 times by KO/TKO – including his most recent fight. Hokit has a big striking advantage, and it should be on full display in the nation’s capital.
Check out our full prediction for Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis
UFC Freedom 250 Best Bet: Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler - Fight to Start Round 2 (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook. Playable to -130.
The third fight on the main card at UFC Freedom 250 pits Mauricio Ruffy and Michael Chandler in the UFC Lightweight division. Ruffy enters this fight with a 5-1 mark in the UFC after bouncing back from his loss to Benoit Saint Denis with a knockout of Rafael Fiziev. As for Chandler, he is 4-5 in the UFC, in the midst of a 3-fight losing streak. In fact, he’s lost 5 of his last 6.
Ruffy is the overwhelming favorite and overmatches Chandler. However, while Chandler has not been the most consistent in the UFC, he tends to at least put up a fight early in his bouts. For reference, 7 of his 9 UFC fights have managed to reach at least the second round, and I’m looking for that to continue against Ruffy. The Brazilian had plenty of first-round knockouts prior to his UFC career, but since being part of the UFC, only 2 of his 6 fights have finished in the first round.
Check out our full prediction for Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler
UFC Freedom 250 Best Bet: Steve Garcia ML over Diego Lopes (+130)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook. Playable to +130.
The first fight on the main card at UFC Freedom 250 will see Diego Lopes take on Steve Garcia in the Featherweight division. Lopes enters this fight with a record of 27-8, 6-4 in UFC, while averaging 3.83 significant strikes with a striking accuracy of 47%. Defensively, Lopes absorbs 4.56 significant strikes at 45%. On the mat, his grappling isn’t very strong, averaging just 0.88 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same period.
Garcia is 19-5 as a professional and 9-2 in the UFC. He averages 5.39 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%, while he absorbs 2.12 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is decent, averaging 0.86 takedowns every 15 minutes along with an 88% takedown defense.
Lopes is the favorite, but I’m not buying it. Garcia is on a roll right now, having won 7 consecutive UFC fights. Compare that to Lopes, who has lost 2 of his last 3. Garcia has the clear advantage in striking volume and has a much better defense, making him a great option at plus money.
Check out our full prediction for Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes
