UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley Prediction for Sunday, 06/08/25

The Main Event at UFC 316 will see Sean O’Malley take on Merab Dvalishvili. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division and will be for the UFC Bantamweight title. O’Malley enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-2 and 11-2 in the UFC. O’Malley is averaging 6.70 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 61%. He is absorbing 3.48 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is not nearly as strong, averaging 0.29 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 42% and a takedown defense of 61%.

Dvalishvili enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-4 and 11-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Dvalishvili is absorbing 2.51 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling is elite, however, averaging 5.89 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 35% and a takedown defense of 82%.

Dvalishvili is the significant favorite given that he is the one holding the Bantamweight title. He also beat O’Malley in September 2024 by unanimous decision. O’Malley had no counter for Dvalishvili’s grappling in that first fight, and the same looks to be true here. Dvalishvili has won 11 times by decision in the UFC; therefore, backing Dvalishvili to win by decision and retain his UFC Bantamweight title will be our play.