UFC 317: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France Prediction for Tomorrow, 06/28/25

The Co-Main Event at UFC 317 will see Alexandre Pantoja take on Kai Kara-France. This will be a fight in the UFC Flyweight division and will be for the UFC Flyweight title. Pantoja enters this fight with an MMA record of 29-5 and 13-3 in the UFC. He averages 4.41 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Pantoja absorbs 3.92 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.74 takedowns every 15 minutes. Pantoja has a takedown accuracy of 47% and a takedown defense of 68%.

Kara-France comes into this fight with an MMA record of 25-11 and 8-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.56 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. Kara-France is absorbing 3.22 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%. In terms of grappling, he is averaging just 0.61 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 33% and his takedown defense is 88%.

Because Pantoja is the clear favorite in this fight, we will be targeting a total rounds prop. Pantoja has seen three of his last four UFC fights go over 2.5 rounds, while Kara-France has also seen three of his last four UFC fights do the same. Further, Pantoja has never lost by finish, and while Kara-France has several losses by finish, he tends to go deep into his fights. For that reason, backing over 2.5 rounds will be our lean.