UFC 317: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Prediction for Sunday, 06/29/25

The Main Event at UFC 317 will see Ilia Topuria take on Charles Oliveira. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division and for the vacant UFC Lightweight title after former holder Islam Makhachev moved up to the Welterweight division. Topuria enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-0 and 8-0 in the UFC. He averages 4.69 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 47%. Topuria absorbs 3.84 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. He also has solid grappling ability, averaging 2.02 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. Topuria has a takedown accuracy of 61% and a takedown defense of 92%.

Oliveira enters this fight with an MMA record of 35-10 and 23-10 in the UFC. He averages 3.40 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. Oliveira absorbs 3.21 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. He also has elite grappling ability, averaging 2.25 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.7 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 40% and his takedown defense is 56%.

Because Topuria is the overwhelming favorite in this fight, we will be targeting a total rounds bet. Topuria has seen five of his eight UFC fights go over 1.5 rounds, which includes each of his last four UFC fights. As for Oliveira, he has seen four of his last six UFC fights go over 1.5 rounds. Therefore, because Topuria and Oliveira have been able to last deep into most of their fights recently, backing over 1.5 rounds will be our play.