UFC 317: Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima Prediction for Tomorrow, 06/28/25

The first fight on the Main Card at UFC 317 will see Payton Talbott take on Felipe Lima. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Talbott enters this fight with an MMA record of 9-1 and 4-1 in the UFC. He averages 6.73 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. Talbott absorbs 3.75 strikes and has a striking defense of 44%. His grappling has been relatively weak, averaging just 0.32 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 33% and a takedown defense of 75%.

Lima enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-1 and 2-0 in the UFC. He averages 3.50 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Lima absorbs 2.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 72%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 1.71 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. Lima has a takedown accuracy of 42% and a takedown defense of 83%.

Lima is the heavy favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the best betting option. He has only fought in two UFC fights, but both were wins in dominant fashion. Talbott does have the advantage in striking volume, but Lima has the clear edge in grappling. Talbott especially struggled with grappling in his most recent fight, as he was taken down eight times in what ended up being his first UFC loss. Because Talbott has shown signs of not being able to grapple effectively, and that is one of Lima’s strengths, backing Lima to win will be our lean.