UFC Fight Night 265: Serghei Spivac vs. Shamil Gaziev Prediction for Saturday, 11/22/25

The second fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 265 will see Serghei Spivac take on Shamil Gaziev. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. Spivac enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-6 and 8-6 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.45 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Spivac is absorbing 4.25 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling has been elite, averaging 4.21 takedowns every 15 minutes. Spivac has a takedown accuracy of 62% and his takedown defense of 63%.

Gaziev enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-1 and 4-1 in the UFC. He averages 2.57 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Gaziev absorbs 3.87 strikes and has a striking defense of 44%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 0.96 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 30% and a takedown defense of 83%.

Gaziev is the moderate favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the best betting option. Spivac has been in poor form recently, going 1-3 in his last 4 UFC fights. Gaziev’s striking volume does not compare to Spivac’s; however, he has an elite takedown defense to counter Spivac’s grappling advantage. Because of this, backing Gaziev to win will be our play.