UFC Fight Night 266 takes place on Saturday at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada and features a UFC Bantamweight fight between Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira as the main event. I have 3 best bets for UFC Fight Night 266, all of which are on the main card, and I’m ready to break each of them down for you. Let’s get into it, and be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC Fight Night 266 main-card fights.
UFC best bet: Vinicius Oliveira ML over Mario Bautista (+142)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +125.
The main event at UFC Fight Night 266 will see Mario Bautista take on Vinicius Oliveira. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division, as Oliveira enters with an MMA record of 23-3 and 5-0 in the UFC. He averages 5.28 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%, while absorbing 2.89 strikes with a striking defense of 57%. He also has solid grappling, averaging 1.67 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50%, and his takedown defense is 80%.
While Bautista is the decent-sized favorite in this fight, Oliveira looks to be the best betting option. For one, Oliveira is perfect in the UFC, while Bautista is coming off a loss in his most recent fight. Oliveira also has the advantage in grappling and has a comparable striking volume to Bautista. Further, Oliveira absorbs much less damage compared to Bautista. The plus-money price on Oliveira is very appealing.
Read our full Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira prediction
UFC prediction: Kyoji Horiguchi Win by Decision over Amir Albazi (-140)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -150.
The co-main event at UFC Fight Night 266 features a bout between Amir Albazi and Kyoji Horiguchi in the UFC Flyweight division. Horiguchi is 34-5 overall and 7-1 in UFC, averaging 3.60 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 45%. Meanwhile, he absorbs 2.45 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. Horiguchi can also grapple, as he averages 2.00 takedowns every 15 minutes to go along with a takedown accuracy of 44% and a takedown defense of 55%.
Horiguchi is the heavy favorite in this fight and doesn’t provide much value from a money-line perspective. Therefore, I’m targeting the method of his victory. Both fighters are suited to take this fight the distance, and I expect Horiguchi to ultimately prevail thanks to his good form and advantages in striking volume and grappling. He’s also much better defensively compared to Albazi.
Read our full Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Amir Albazi prediction
UFC pick: Jailton Almeida ML over Rizvan Kuniev (-142)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.
The 4th fight on the main card at UFC Fight Night 266 will be a Heavyweight bout between Jailton Almeida and Rizvan Kuniev. Almeida boasts a 22-4 overall record, which includes 9-2 in the UFC, and he’s landing 66% strikes with 2.25 significant strikes per minute. Defensively, Almeida absorbs 1.02 strikes per minute and opponents land just 35% of their strikes against him. His grappling has been elite in the UFC, averaging 6.66 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.0 submission attempts during the same period. Almeida has a takedown accuracy of 62% and a takedown defense of 60%.
Almeida is the moderate-sized favorite in this fight, and for good reason. Not only does Almeida have the advantage in striking volume, but he has a big advantage in grappling, too. I’m looking to back the more experienced UFC fighter here, and that’s Almeida.
Read our full Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev prediction
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