UFC Fight Night 268: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh Prediction for Today, 02/28/26

The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 268 will see Brandon Moreno take on Lone’er Kavanagh. This will be a fight in the UFC Flyweight division. Moreno enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-9-2 and 11-6-2 in the UFC. He averages 3.89 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. Moreno absorbs 3.62 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.47 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 44%, and he has a takedown defense of 64%.

Kavanagh enters this fight with an MMA record of 9-1 and 3-1 in the UFC. He averages 4.29 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Kavanagh absorbs 3.69 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling has been solid as well, averaging 1.79 takedowns every 15 minutes. Kavanagh has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 88%.

While Moreno is the favorite in this fight, Kavanagh could be the best betting option to pull the upset. Kavanagh has the slight edge in both striking volume and grappling compared to Moreno. Further, Moreno has been inconsistent recently, having posted a 5-5 record across his last 10 UFC fights. Of course, Kavanagh is coming off his first career loss; however, with his advantages over Moreno, our best bet will be for Kavanagh to win.