UFC Fight Night 273: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert Predictions for Saturday, 04/18/26

The fourth fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 273 will see Mandel Nallo take on Jai Herbert. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Nallo enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-3 and 1-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 8.61 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 62%. Nallo absorbs 2.58 strikes and has a striking defense of 72%. He has yet to show any grappling ability, but has a takedown defense of 100%.

Herbert enters this fight with an MMA record of 13-6-1 and 3-5-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.07 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. Herbert absorbs 3.26 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling ability has been weak, averaging just 0.43 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 21% and a takedown defense of 66%.

Nallo is the clear favorite in this fight; however, he still looks to be the best betting option. Nallo has won 5 fights in a row, including his most recent fight in the UFC Contender Series. Further, Herbert has not been consistent, having won just once in his last 4 UFC fights. Nallo also has the superior striking volume and has been perfect at defending takedowns. For that reason, backing Nallo to win is our lean.