UFC Fight Night 274: Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez Prediction for Saturday, 04/25/26

The fourth fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 274 will see Rafa Garcia take on Alexander Hernandez. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Garcia enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-4 and 6-4 in the UFC. He averages 4.31 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Garcia absorbs 4.54 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling is also elite, averaging 3.13 takedowns every 15 minutes. Garcia has a takedown accuracy of 44% and a takedown defense of 76%.

Hernandez enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-8 and 10-7 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.31 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. Hernandez is absorbing 4.50 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.14 takedowns every 15 minutes. Hernandez has a takedown accuracy of 36% and a takedown defense of 73%.

Hernandez is the small favorite; however, Garcia looks to be the best betting option. Garcia is 6-2 over his last 8 UFC fights and 4-1 over his last 5 UFC fights. Hernandez, on the other hand, is 5-4 over his last 9 UFC fights. Both of these fighters have the same striking volume, but Garcia has the superior grappling advantage. For that reason, backing Garcia to win will be our best bet.