UFC on ESPN 69: Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley Prediction for Sunday, 06/15/25

The Main Event at UFC on ESPN 69 will see Kamaru Usman take on Joaquin Buckley. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Usman enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-4 and 15-3 in the UFC. He averages 4.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. Usman absorbs 2.74 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.82 takedowns every 15 minutes. Usman has a takedown accuracy of 45% and a takedown defense of 89%.

Buckley enters this fight with an MMA record of 21-6 and 11-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.22 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 37%. Buckley is absorbing 3.13 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.78 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 45% and a takedown defense of 73%.

Buckley is the heavy favorite here, but still looks to be a worthwhile betting option. He has been in much better form, going 5-0 in his last 5 UFC fights, while Usman is in the midst of a 3-fight losing streak. Usman has also not fought since October 2023, which would suggest there could be some rust as he looks to get back into the win column. For that reason, backing Buckley to win and continue to improve his resume will be our lean.