UFC on ESPN 70: Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos Prediction for Saturday, 07/12/25

The first fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 70 will see Junior Tafa take on Tuco Tokkos. This will be a fight in the UFC Light Heavyweight division. Tafa enters this fight with an MMA record of 6-3 and 2-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Tafa absorbs 2.84 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. He has shown no grappling ability, but has a takedown defense of 77%.

Tokkos enters this fight with an MMA record of 10-5 and 0-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 2.51 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 38%. Tokkos absorbs 4.99 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.65 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 40% and a takedown defense of 33%.

Tafa is the clear favorite; however, he and Tokkos have been much too inconsistent to consider backing. Instead, we will be targeting a total rounds prop. Tafa has seen his last 4 UFC fights go under 1.5 rounds, while Tokkos has seen 2 of his 3 UFC fights do the same. Given that both fighters have been known to be involved in quick fights, backing under 1.5 total rounds will be our lean.