UFC on ESPN 70: Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere Prediction for Today, 07/12/25

The third fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 70 will see Nate Landwehr take on Morgan Charriere. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Landwehr enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-6 and 5-4 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.59 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. Landwehr absorbs 5.77 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. He also has decent grappling ability, averaging 0.85 takedowns every 15 minutes and 0.8 submission attempts during the same period. Landwehr has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 74%.

Charriere enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-11-1 and 2-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.46 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Charriere is absorbing 4.15 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 1.91 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 83%.

Charriere is the significant favorite in this fight, but Landwehr looks to be a decent betting option to pull the upset. Landwehr has the clear edge in striking volume, and his takedown defense has been strong enough to negate the advantage Charriere has in grappling. For that reason, backing Landwehr to pull the upset will be our lean.