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Player First Quarter Points Pick

A. Thompson (DET) - Over 1.5 1Q pts(-121)

Reasoning

Ausar Thompson has hit this line in 8 of 11 games in the playoffs, and his defensive duties will be needed against Donovan Mitchell after his incredible second half in Game 4. Ausar knows that him staying on the court is a big factor in the Pistons’ success, so I expect him to make fewer gambles defensively that could lead to fouls. In turn, Ausar should see 8+ first-quarter minutes. If this man cannot score one bucket in all that time, then I can live with the result, but with that many possessions, I think Cade will take enough gravity to give Ausar at least one open lane to the basket. In Game 2, we saw Ausar explode for 8 early points, so we know he’s more than capable of putting the ball in the basket. Let’s roll!

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Josh Gayle (ThatGuyBets)

Point Spread Pick

DET Pistons -3.5(-110)

Reasoning

Just a few days ago, the Detroit Pistons looked to be in complete control of this Eastern Conference semifinal series. But after dropping both games on the road, the Cavaliers returned to Cleveland and immediately got back on track. Much like we saw in their first-round series against the Raptors, Kenny Atkinson’s team tends to play like a real Eastern Conference contender at home, but not so much away from the friendly confines of Rocket Arena. An old adage about playoff basketball is “the series doesn’t start until the home team loses a game”. Well, for Cleveland, the playoffs still haven’t started yet in that regard. The Cavaliers are 6-0 in front of their home fans in this postseason, with an average margin of victory of nearly 10 points. Contrast that with their dreadful 0-5 road record — including a pair of 10-point losses in Games 1 and 2 of this series — and you have a series that has been dominated by the home teams. With that in mind, it’s only fitting that I’ll be targeting the Pistons to get back on track and retake the lead in this series at home.

Game 4 was noticeable from a Cavaliers standpoint in the sense that both Donovan Mitchell and James Harden played well at the same time. Mitchell’s 39 points in the second half tied the record for the most in a half in any postseason game, but it’s reasonable to suggest that we won’t see that kind of heater from the superstar guard in Game 5, especially with this matchup taking place in Detroit. Much like the rest of the team, Harden has looked like a much more confident player at home and his last showing on the road in this series was his worst game of the playoffs to this point. Conversely, Cade Cunningham has absolutely excelled at home in these playoffs, and we can expect another strong game from the Pistons’ leading scorer in what is essentially a must-win game at home following a pair of disappointing losses. Furthermore, if the Pistons are able to get anything from Jalen Duren in this game, that’ll be a first in this series. Finally, the role players on Detroit should shoot much better from beyond the arc at home — a spot where the Pistons knocked down a combined 24 threes in Games 1 and 2. Ultimately, I’ll lay the points and trust the hosts to regain control of the series.

Cavaliers vs Pistons Game 5 prediction: Pistons -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Pistons -4.

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Same Game Parlay

Money Line

CLE Cavaliers Win

Player Points

D. Mitchell (CLE) - 30+ pts

Player Threes Made

D. Robinson (DET) - 2+ threes

Reasoning

Cavaliers vs Pistons parlay pick: Cavs ML (+146)

All 4 games in this series so far have been won by the home team, but I’d argue the momentum is on the Cavaliers side here even though they are yet to win a road game this postseason run. Donovan Mitchell took matters into his own hands, delivering a performance to remember in Game 4 with 43 points (39 of them coming in the 2nd half). As a team, the Cavs were just way more aggressive attacking the rim, resulting in 34 free-throw attempts compared to just 12 by the Pistons. Cleveland’s defense also forced 20 turnovers in the win, they might have just figured out this Pistons team.

Experience is another factor we should consider here – the Cavs have a lot more of it, especially James Harden who has elevated his level of play over the past two games. The Beard dished out 11 assists in Game 4, hitting some timely shots from downtown as well. Something tells me the Cavs might just steal one on the road here.

Cavaliers vs Pistons SGP pick: Donovan Mitchell to score 30+ points (+150)

Mitchell had a performance to remember on Monday night, destroying the Pistons with 43 points. After scoring just 4 points in the first half and his team being down, Mitchell took over and scored 39 points over the remaining 24 minutes of play, which tied an NBA record for most points scored in a half of a postseason game, held by Eric “Sleepy” Floyd dating back to 1987.

Going into Detroit tied at 2-2 instead of being down 3-1 is a massive difference, as the experienced shooting guard once again saved the day for Cleveland. Now it’s up to him to follow it up with another signature performance, only this time on the road in the Motor City. We are getting pretty solid odds on another 30+ point game, for a bet that’s cashed 3 times in 4 games this series. Mitchell is averaging 28.9 ppg in his last 10 visits to Little Caesars Arena, and he’s gotten to at least 30 points in 5 of his last 7 games there. Only once in his last 7 games overall against Detroit has he failed to score 30 points.

Cavaliers vs Pistons SGP pick: Duncan Robinson 2+ made threes (-410)

To cap off our Cavs vs Pistons SGP, I have Duncan Robinson knocking down a pair of threes. That shouldn’t be too big of an ask from a player who has shot the lights out this postseason run. The former Heat sharpshooter is averaging 43.6% of makes from distance in 11 games played so far, and only twice during those 11 games he has failed to connect on 2 threes.

Things have really opened up for him after a somewhat disappointing Round 1, as his efficiency has gone up from 36.5% to 57.7% against the Cavaliers. It’s quite obvious that the Cavs don’t have anyone to chase him around the perimeter, so I expect a bounce-back performance at home in Game 5. The over on this bet has cashed a staggering 96% in Pistons home games this season (43/45), while against the Cavaliers, that has happened 7 times in 8 meetings (88% hit rate). I’m backing Robinson with confidence here.

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