NBA Picks

With 13 wins in 14 games, the Hawks boast the best record in the NBA along with the OKC Thunder during this stretch. They lead the league with 120.9 points scored per 100 possessions and are also the best defense, allowing 105.3 points. Only OKC has a better net rating, and the Hawks are beating opponents by 15.6 points during this surge. Now, some people might say most of the wins came against losing or tanking teams — even if that is the case, I think we still need to give credit to Atlanta for the turnaround. Building good habits is never easy, especially when we get past the 60-game mark of the season. Wednesday’s game against the Pistons will tell us whether or not this team is for real.

We are still waiting on the fall off of the Pistons to begin without superstar Cade Cunningham. The team has responded in a big way since he went down with a collapsed lung. The Pistons have won 4 straight games, including an impressive clutch win over the Lakers in their last game. Daniss Jenkins emerged as the hero with 30 points, and the Pistons did a fantastic job holding the Lakers to just 28% shooting from 3. And that’s been their calling card basically this entire season. Teams are connecting on just 34.8% of 3-point shots against them, and only 3 teams in the league are better in this area.

Even though the Pistons lead the regular-season series 3-0, I still have faith in these Hawks. I’ve been impressed with how Jalen Johnson has played; the partnership formed between him and Nickeil Alexander-Walker is on a different level. If Atlanta gets a productive game from Jonathan Kuminga, I think it can even pull off the upset. Let’s back the road underdog.

Hawks vs Pistons prediction: Atlanta +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This total is high for a reason, but that doesn’t mean it’s justified. The market is expecting sustained offensive efficiency from both sides, and that’s where the skepticism begins. Philadelphia has been one of the more inconsistent offensive teams in the league. The Sixers can produce strong scoring stretches, but they are equally capable of extended droughts — particularly in half-court sets. That volatility alone makes it difficult to trust them in a game priced this high.

Chicago presents a different issue. The Bulls rely heavily on perimeter shooting and shot volume, which creates a high-variance offensive profile. When the 3s are falling, they can push totals upward quickly. But when they aren’t, scoring can stall just as fast. High totals require everything to go right — pace, efficiency and shot-making. But all it takes is one cold stretch, a slower quarter, or a shift into more deliberate possessions for the number to come under pressure. With both teams carrying offensive volatility and neither consistently dictating pace, the Under becomes the more reliable position at this elevated number.

Bulls vs 76ers prediction: Under 239 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It’s not often we see the Lakers lose in clutch situations, but their 9-game winning streak came to an end in Detroit on Monday after Luka Doncic failed to hit a shot late. LA is now 22-7 SU in clutch games this season, still the highest win percentage in the league at just under 76%. Their final game of this road trip sees them take on the Indiana Pacers. By all accounts this shouldn’t be a close game at all. A veteran team like LA should know how to keep its composure following such a disappointing loss, and this road trip will be a major success if the Lakers can end it with a dub in Indiana.

The Pacers don’t instill fear into anyone these days. They just posted their first win in 17 games, beating the struggling Magic 128-126. If was their first win since mid-February, in these last 10 or so games of the regular season they are not expected to up their level of play despite the win at Orlando. For the game against the Lakers, they have Obi Toppin, Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith all on the injury report as questionable — so we don’t even know who might suit up.

Since it’s the Lakers and games against them usually draw a lot more attention than against other teams, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pacers went after it. On paper, the Lakers should win in convincing fashion — but Indiana has actually fared really well in head-to-head meetings at home by covering the spread in 8 of the last 9 games. LA’s 3-point shot has fallen off a bit in the last couple of games, connecting on just 8 triples against Orlando and Detroit — which makes me doubt they will cover. Let’s go for the points instead. The over has cashed in 4 of 5 meetings and in the last 5 Indiana games overall.

Lakers vs Pacers prediction: Over 239 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This is strictly a numbers play, and that’s exactly why it works. San Antonio has earned its reputation as one of the best teams in the league, and that success is now fully baked into the price. Laying 16.5 points isn’t about being better, it’s about being dominant for 48 minutes. That’s a completely different requirement.

Memphis is not a good team. That’s obvious, and it’s the reason this number exists. But that’s also why the value flips. When a team becomes this unattractive, the market forces you to pay a premium to back the favorite. You’re no longer betting the Spurs, you’re betting their ability to maintain separation the entire game. That is a not long-term profitably situation. One flat stretch, one slower quarter, or one loose rotation late, and the number becomes vulnerable. Memphis doesn’t need to be competitive for the full game. It just needs enough life to stay within range at a bloated line which makes it a low bar. Backing the Grizzlies is uncomfortable, but that’s the point. The number is inflated, and taking the points is the sharper position.

Spurs vs Grizzlies prediction: Grizzlies +16.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to +16.

Neither Washington nor Utah has shown consistent defensive resistance. With the total sitting around 240, this projects as a high-possession, offense-driven game. That matters because in high-scoring environments, games tend to become more volatile and less predictable. When both teams can score and neither can consistently defend, the gap between favorite and underdog shrinks quickly.

Utah being favored is more about location than reliability. Washington winning only 5 games on the road this year probably has something to do with Utah spotting multiple possessions, but the Jazz have struggled defensively all season and they haven’t demonstrated the ability to control games in a way that justifies laying points with confidence. Washington, while inconsistent, is capable of matching scoring runs in a game like this. In a matchup where both teams are likely to trade offense and neither side has a clear structural edge, the spread becomes less meaningful. That’s where the value shifts to the money line. If this game plays out as expected — fast, loose and high scoring — it essentially becomes a coin flip. In toss-up environments, taking the plus money is always the sharper side. That’s the fundamental approach.

Wizards vs Jazz prediction: Washington ML (+155) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Houston Rockets (43-28) and Minnesota Timberwolves (44-28) will engage in an absolutely crucial contest for Western Conference playoff positioning when they collide on Wednesday night in Minnesota. Both teams are in a 3-way battle with Denver for the fourth, fifth and sixth spots, and even the #3 seed is in play. As the standings and the records suggest, this is pretty much an even matchup — and the odds are reflective of that. Home-court advantage could make the difference, so my Rockets vs Timberwolves pick is for Minnesota to win outright.

Anthony Edwards (knee) will miss his fifth consecutive contest for the T-Wolves. The good news is that they are staying afloat without him, boasting a 3-1 record in their last 4 games. This stretch includes a 10-point win over Boston this past Sunday. Ayo Dosunmu (14.5 ppg) has been picking up the slack in a big way. He has scored at least 18 points in 5 straight outings and is averaging 9.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists over the past 3 contests. Meanwhile, Houston is just 18-18 on the road in 2025-26 compared to 25-10 at home. Let’s roll with the ‘Wolves and not bother with the +1.5 spread.

Rockets vs Timberwolves prediction: Minnesota ML (+102) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

The Brooklyn Nets have been inconsistent of late. In between blowouts by the Portland Trail Blazers and the Oklahoma City Thunder, they played games in which they stayed competitive against the Sacramento Kings and New York Knicks. Tonight will likely follow the latter scenario, as they visit the Golden State Warriors. The Dubs continue to be hit by the injury bug. Among long-term absentees like Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III, you have new additions like Moses Moody, Al Horford and Quinten Post. Against a shorthanded side, the visitors are well positioned to stay competitive. Nic Claxton should be back in the fold for the Nets, which will give them someone who can match up with Kristaps Porzingis.

The Nets have shown potential in limiting opponent scoring. Over the last 10 games — despite losing 8 of them — they have been 17th in the league in defensive rating. That is better than the Warriors, who are down in 20th. Over that same stretch of games, the teams are 28th and 30th in true shooting percentage, respectively.  With the inefficiency both sides attack with, defenses should prevail — which does not bode well for either team to blow out the other. In a likely low-scoring game, the value play is taking the points on the visiting Nets.

Nets vs Warriors prediction: Brooklyn +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.

The Portland Trail Blazers started their 4-game home-stand with a big 134-99 win over the Brooklyn Nets on Monday. Forward Toumani Camara had a career night, scoring a career high 35 points on 9-of-11 shooting from 3-point range. Portland is currently 1 game under .500 and a half game back of the Los Angeles Clippers and the eighth seed in the Western Conference. The Trail Blazers will have a good opportunity to pick up another win tonight against the tanking Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks have lost 11 of their last 14 games and have lost any hope of making the postseason. Giannis Antetokounmpo will miss his fifth straight game tonight with a knee injury.

The Bucks had just gotten in trouble with the NBPA this week when it was determined they were not playing Antetokounmpo despite being healthy. Nonetheless, Antetokounmpo will sit again — so the Bucks will be led by Ryan Rollins and Myles Turner. The Trail Blazers have been a very good team on their home floor this season. They have an ATS record of 21-14 at the Moda Center and they have covered in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Milwaukee will likely struggle to keep up with the fast-paced Blazers. It has shot under 42% in its past 3 games and has failed to exceed 100 points in 2 of the last 3. With Antetokounmpo out of the lineup, the Trail Blazers will have the 3 best players on the floor in Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan and Jrue Holiday. These are 2 teams trending in opposite directions.

Bucks vs Trail Blazers prediction: Portland -12.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.