NBA Picks

Detroit’s case is built on repeatable edges: they win the possession game at home, they don’t need pace to score, and they’ve been comfortable playing with the pressure of being the hunted (they have the best record in the East) rather than being the hunter. Denver can absolutely win, its ceiling is always high, but this is a spot for Detroit to capitalize.

The Pistons play balanced basketball. They lean into a physical and disruptive defense to mitigate opponent scoring while they optimize their possessions with clean looks and smart ball movement. While Denver is known for a physical pedigree, Detroit can match it, and maybe even exceed it. Also, Detroit’s motivation isn’t narrative fluff either. This is an opportunity. The Pistons are playing a contender from the West with a chance to validate the record. Those are the games where rotations tighten earlier and empty minutes disappear. In other words, Detroit is bringing their A-game. We have to like that proposition because they can beat anyone, when they do. Asking the Pistons to win at a beatable number in a contest that they can control the tempo, the glass, and shot quality lines up for them to succeed in doing just that. Lay the points.

Nuggets vs Pistons prediction: Pistons -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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It’s easy to pull the trigger on the Knicks here. They have won the last 10 meetings and the Wizards comparatively speaking are garnered as a lightweight while the Knicks are considered a contender to win the NBA Finals. But that’s the problem. Backing the Knicks here is doing so at an inflated number before we go any further. The Knicks’ stock is high and in this series, it is through the roof. That is not a good look for a team that plays losing basketball overall on the highway.

Then there is the number itself. Big road spreads are where basketball turns into math. New York can be clearly superior and still fail to cover if Washington can either stay afloat in the early stages of each half and/or get some equity out of their bench. That’s the underdog blueprint in the modern NBA, especially when the favorite’s incentive is simply to bank a win, not run up margin. However, it likely won’t even need to come to that with this new-look Wizards team spearheaded by “Ice” Trae Young. This team has shown it can hang with the best, but even if New York dominates the backdoor does exist too. To come through that way, Washington doesn’t need sustained offense, just enough scoring to capitalize when New York slows down and tries to wrap things up. That’s how backdoor covers happen without any dramatic comeback. There are multiple avenues for Washington to come in under this large number. Take the points.

Knicks vs Wizards prediction: Wizards +13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +13.

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Indiana just played a high-profile, emotionally charged game where they exceeded expectations as a modest underdog and nearly won outright as a five-point pup against Houston, last night. The market was fading the Pacers at all costs, but Indiana delivered. However, performances like that often carry a hidden tax the next night. Teams that pour energy into proving the market wrong frequently show a dip in sharpness in a back-to-back. This is not because of effort, but because emotional peaks are hard to replicate. The Pacers just went toe-to-toe with a Western Conference heavyweight. Now they have to get up for a lowly Utah side with a short turnaround. The let-down potential is enormous and that’s the danger.

We get to benefit though since the perception has flipped. Indiana suddenly looks appealing, and that shift in sentiment matters. The Pacers are now expected to win by more than a possession when a day ago, they were a multiple-possession underdog. When the market moves from doubting a team to backing them quickly, value can migrate to the other side. Utah is positioned to benefit if the Pacers are even slightly off rhythm. The Jazz don’t need to grind; they can score in bunches when defensive rotations are a half-step late. That’s exactly what shows up in flat spots like this one. Utah’s offense thrives on early confidence and if they get comfortable, look out. The Notes can force opponents into chase mode, which stretches games out, and favors the more aggressive scoring side which is them in this scenario. The overall situational energy swing gives the Jazz a live path to the outright result. We’re backing Utah to pull it off.

Jazz vs Pacers prediction: Jazz +135 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The inconsistent Miami Heat have alternated wins and losses over their last 5 games as they prepare to host the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night. If the trend continues, Miami will be in line for a loss — as it most recently picked up a win over Chicago on Sunday. Of course, we don’t even need the Hawks to win outright; we simply need them to keep it relatively close. And that’s exactly what the visitors should be able to do in this Southeast Division matchup. As such, my Hawks vs Heat pick is on Atlanta to cover. In addition to playing mediocre basketball at best, Miami may also be fatigued. Tuesday night’s contest marks the end of a ridiculous stretch in which the Heat are playing 5 games in 7 days.

Atlanta, on the other hand, is playing on 2 full days of rest and this is just its second game in the span of 5 days. The Hawks are finally healthy, too; only Kristaps Porizingis is sidelined right now. Jalen Johnson delivered another triple-double (33 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists) on Saturday and should be playing with vigor on this one after being named an all-star for the first time on Sunday. It is validation for what has been an absolutely outstanding season being turned in by the Duke product. It should also be noted that Atlanta is a solid 15-13 on the road compared to a woeful 9-14 at home. There is no reason why Johnson and company can’t be competitive in South Beach.

Hawks vs Heat prediction: Atlanta +5.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Brooklyn Nets took yet another heavy defeat in their last outing, suffering a 53-point loss on the road against the Detroit Pistons. And while they will be returning home tonight, their chances of bouncing back against the Los Angeles Lakers look slim. The visitors could see Austin Reaves return to the lineup, with the star listed as questionable to play. Over the last 10 games the Nets already rank dead last in offensive rating. This has been evident in their last 5 games as they have failed to surpass the 105-point mark in any of those games. The return of Reaves could help the visitors compile a major advantage in the scoring category.

The Nets will have a major issue matching up with Luka Doncic and LeBron James. Doncic in particular causes size mismatches at point guard for them, with no natural matchup for him on the Nets roster. Over the last 10 games the hosts are also 29th in defensive rating, making it tough for them to put up much resistance here. The Lakers should even have the advantage inside. Deandre Ayton has shown promising sings of form, having made 22 of his last 24 field goal attempts overall. Against a center like Nic Claxton who gives up a massive bulk advantage to him, Ayton should continue getting in great positions to convert efficiently. It’s hard to see this Nets offense being able to keep pace with the Lakers. Take the visitors to cover the spread.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Brooklyn Nets prediction: Lakers -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Lakers -10.

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The Boston Celtics enter this matchup at 31-18, firmly near the top of the Eastern Conference behind a balanced, efficient attack that averages 116.1 points per game while allowing just 109.1. Jaylen Brown has been the focal point, pouring in roughly 29.4 PPG, with strong secondary contributions from Derrick White and Payton Pritchard helping Boston stretch the floor and control tempo. The Celtics have been reliable away from home and remain one of the league’s more disciplined defensive teams, though recent games have shown occasional lapses late when opponents can match their physicality and shot making. An interesting stat that has haunted the Celtics for multiple years now is their 3rd quarter play. In quarters 1, 2 and 4 the Celtics have the top-rated offense. However, in the 3rd quarter, they rank just 17th. If the Celtics go up big at halftime, you could also look for a Dallas spread live bet.

Dallas comes in at 19-30, a disappointing record that masks some competitive underlying play. The Mavericks score about 114.1 PPG but surrender 116.6, resulting in a negative point differential that reflects inconsistency rather than complete dysfunction. Rookie Cooper Flagg has been a bright spot, averaging approximately 19.8 PPG and providing Dallas with a legitimate scoring anchor. Injuries remain a concern, with Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, and Anthony Davis all sidelined, forcing Dallas to rely heavily on young players and role shooters. Despite those absences, the Mavericks have shown an ability to defend their home floor and keep games close, particularly when pace slows and Boston is forced into half court possessions. Given Dallas’ competitiveness at home and Boston’s tendency to win without separation, there’s value for the Mavericks.

Celtics vs Mavericks Prediction: Mavericks +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5

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The Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks meet on February 3rd in a matchup featuring two teams heading in very different emotional directions but landing in a similar statistical place. Chicago enters at 24-26, coming off a blowout loss to Miami where offensive rhythm never materialized. On the season, the Bulls are still a capable scoring group, ranking top 10 in the NBA at roughly 117 points per game, led by Josh Giddey and Nikola Vucevic. However, defensive inconsistency remains a major issue, as Chicago is allowing nearly 120 points per game, often struggling to control pace and perimeter shooting. Injuries and rotation instability have further disrupted their ability to string together efficient offensive performances, especially on the road.

Milwaukee’s situation is more dire. Sitting at 18-29, the Bucks are operating without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who remains sidelined and is widely expected to be dealt at the trade deadline, effectively leaving Milwaukee without its franchise centerpiece. The offensive impact has been severe: the Bucks are averaging just 111.1 points per game (27th in the league) and recently managed only 79 points against Boston, their lowest output of the season. Additional absences, including Kevin Porter Jr, have forced Milwaukee to rely heavily on inconsistent role players, leading to prolonged scoring droughts and slower offensive possessions. While Milwaukee has historically dominated this matchup, most of that success came with Giannis anchoring the offense. With both teams struggling to find consistent scoring efficiency and Milwaukee clearly lacking shot creation, this sets up as a slower game.

Bulls vs Bucks Prediction: Under 224 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 223.

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This is a total that lines up with how both Orlando and OKC prefer to win: defense first, limit transition, and force opponents into tough attempts. Orlando is one of the better “under teams” stylistically because they can play long stretches where scoring is earned rather than gifted. That doesn’t require elite shooting from either side, it requires physicality and defensive buy-in. Oklahoma City and Orlando typically bring both. If the game can played on such terms, then this becomes a rock fight. That makes the under look very attractive here.

Both sides are going to work and look to play smart basketball when they have the ball on their opponents side of the court. As a result, the game is shortened and that further helps the under to cash. This isn’t a prediction of both teams throwing up a bunch of bricks. It’s a bet that both teams will spend meaningful minutes in half-court, defense-shaped basketball. In that environment, this is a number that can be beaten just by normal stretches of empty possessions and defensive posturing. Not only can the final score come under, it can come in well under the posted number.

Magic vs Thunder prediction: Under 219.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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Monday’s win over the Clippers was the perfect way to start the 5-game west coast road trip that the Sixers have embarked on. An unexpected hero emerged in Dominick Barlow who scored 26 points and grabbed 16 rebounds, 10 of which were on the offensive end. Tyrese Maxey led all scorers with 29, including 7 threes made. This is the 2nd time this season the 76ers have won 4 games in a row, they’re looking to set a new season high win streak with a win at Golden State on Tuesday. Playing at Chase Center has been a challenge over the years with just 2 wins in 13 visits for Philly, however with the injury situation the Warriors are going through now this might be the Sixers’ best chance of winning a game there in years.

Steph and co. have been a reliable bet at home for the most part this season, winning 17 of 25 games so far. However, the loss of Jimmy Butler has put a massive dent into their playoff hopes this year, we just saw them get beat by the Detroit Pistons 131-124 at home in their last game. Steve Kerr and his men had a lot of time to think about that defeat having had 2 days of rest in between games, this could give them a vital edge playing the 76ers who are on a 2nd night of a back-to-back here. The question the Warriors have to ask themselves here is can they contain Joel Embiid down low? Their last 3 games have seen opponents average 52.7 points per game inside the paint, that would rank 6th worst for the season according to ESPN’s stats and info.

Playing with no rest hasn’t been that big of an issue as you’d think for the Sixers who are 6-3 SU in this scenario this year. They are also a reliable bet on the road at 15-6 ATS in 21 games played and looking healthy at the moment. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt against the injury depleted Warriors here, but I’m keeping the stakes at a reasonable amount.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Golden State Warriors Predictions: 76ers +2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The injury to Devin Booker finally caught up to the Phoenix Suns who got blown out in their last game by the Clippers, scoring just 93 points in a 24 point loss. The Suns were able to survive for the most part without their superstar, beating some formidable teams over the past couple of weeks. Tuesday is a bounce back opportunity as they take on another team that’s been hit by the injury bug the Portland Trail Blazers. These two teams met in mid-November with the Suns coming out on top 127-110, it was their 5th win in 7 meetings against this team.

Deni Avdija just got name to the All-Star team as a reserve in the Western Conference, that’s a solid reward for all the good things he’s done for his team this year. However, it’s been almost 2 weeks since we’ve seen a signature game from him, mainly due to the back issues which have caused him to play only 3 games since January 18th. He’s slowly easing into things, the fact that he scored only 11 points at MSG the other day tells us that he is still far from being fully healthy. On top of this issue, the Blazers could also be without Jrue Holiday who is out due to personal reasons, plus Scoot Henderson and Matisse Thybulle who are out injured.

Both teams are missing their best player at the moment, but I’m of the opinion that the Suns are way more comfortable playing without Booker. Before the loss to the Clippers they were able to beat the Pistons and Cavaliers pretty convincingly, with 6 wins in 9 games they should be the ones taking care of business here. I’ll back Dillon Brooks and company to cover.

Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers Predictions: Suns -3.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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