NBA Picks

Houston deserves more skepticism than it is getting as a modest favorite. On the surface, the Rockets being favored by a substantial margin makes sense — they defend, they run, they can flip games with quick scoring bursts and they play winning basketball. That profile attracts money because it’s visually convincing. But spreads aren’t about who looks better; they’re about what the market is really telling us. The price says that the Pacers are live. As such, Houston isn’t an absolutely  huge favorite in this spot.

Houston has the tools to control this game, but the Pacers have the scrappiness to make things difficult. To cover the necessary margin requires sustained control, but Indiana’s improved ball security, steadier shot selection and ability to avoid self-inflicted mistakes give it a path to stay within striking range. The line itself suggests this isn’t a mismatch, but rather a competitive bout; that’s why we urge those who are backing Houston here to proceed with caution. Grabbing the points with the Pacers is not betting on an upset narrative. It’s reading between the lines and taking advantage of a situational spot where Indiana can win outright.

Rockets vs Pacers prediction: Indiana +5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves will be trying to extend their winning streak to 5 games when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night. These 2 teams just faced each other on Saturday — also in Memphis — and the Timberwolves rolled 131-114. That was preceded by victories over Golden State, Dallas and Oklahoma City (all by at least 12 points). The T-Wolves aren’t just winning these days; they are crushing people. As for the Grizzlies, they are going in the complete opposite direction. They have lost 6 consecutive contests, with each of the last 4 setbacks coming by 8 points or more. I’m backing the trends to continue, so my Timberwolves vs Grizzlies pick is for the visitors to win and cover.

Minnesota controls 2 key possession levers that matter more than total talent across 48 minutes: paint scoring and defensive rebounding. Memphis has flashed some scoring and athletic ability, but its offensive rhythm is volatile — booming in bursts but vulnerable to long droughts. Memphis’ defensive rebounding rate allows the opposition multiple second chances, which inherently increases scoring opportunities for teams with strong interior presence like Minnesota. In summary, this is a nightmare setup for Memphis — and the Timberwolves are certainly capable of taking advantage. The best part about laying this amount of points is that we don’t need a blowout — even when Minnesota can easily achieve that kind of a beatdown. We simply need the T-Wolves to be the better side and play a full 4 quarters. If they do, this ticket should cash without too much trouble.

Timberwolves vs Grizzlies prediction: Minnesota -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This line belies a bigger question than who is better; it asks whether Charlotte should be laying this price to anyone. The Hornets have had stretches of good basketball, especially at home, but their wins tend to come through flow and rhythm rather than control. They can score in bursts, they can even clamp down, but they’re not built to methodically put teams away. That includes teams like the Pels, who the market on any given night avoids like the Black Plague. That means that New Orleans is certainly taking back an inflated number by default, which is optimal against a team with Charlotte’s profile.

Charlotte’s offense can run hot, but it can also flatten out and struggle to create separation. That’s where an underdog like New Orleans can hang around. The Pelicans don’t need to be polished — they need to be persistent. If they win the physical battles and generate extra possessions, the math works in their favor. The price on the Hornets asks them to be prolific and carry their own weight. This is a huge contrast to being a team that was a plucky underdog playing with nothing to lose just weeks ago. New Orleans plus the points is the safer play.

Pelicans vs Hornets prediction: New Orleans +6.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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