NBA Picks

The Detroit Pistons are attempting to continue to hold on to the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference while their star, Cade Cunningham, is out with a collapsed lung. They survived their first test yesterday against the Washington Wizards, winning 117-95 behind 24 points from Jaren Duren. The Pistons will have a short amount of time to prepare for their second test tonight against the injury-riddled Golden State Warriors. Detroit got out to a fast start against Washington, winning the first quarter 35-14. It was clear the intention to win without Cunningham was to rely heavily on defense. The Pistons are a top defensive team in the league, ranking second in the league in defensive rating. They also rank in the bottom half of the league in pace and are in the top 3 in rebounding rate. Detroit will limit your possessions and won’t allow many second-chance opportunities, making it very difficult to beat if shots aren’t falling.

Golden State has struggled recently with key players — Stephen Curry included — out. The Warriors have lost 8 of their last 10 games. They have averaged 110.2 points per game, shot 43% from the field and 32% from 3 during that span. These numbers are a major drop off from their season average of 115 points per game, 46% shooting from the field and 36% from 3. Overall, the Warriors are 6-13 without Curry in their lineup and continue to fall further down the Western Conference standings. The Pistons’ defense should be able to continue to hold the Warriors’ offense at bay in this game.

Warriors vs Pistons prediction: Detroit -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

The New York Knicks destroyed the Brooklyn Nets in their last meeting, winning by 54 points. It marked their third win this season over their rivals and second by a margin of 18 or more points. Do not put it past them to repeat such a feat on the road tonight. The Nets come into this game without the services of Michael Porter Jr., who has been leading the team in scoring this season. Without him, the Nets have been struggled to get scoring from their forward and center positions. Danny Wolf has played a bigger role, but he has averaged just over 10 points per game on inefficient shooting from the field. Nic Claxton has been even worse, averaging 7.1 points in March on a modest 40.2% shooting.

The Knicks have been elite over the last 10 games, ranking third in the league in net offensive and defensive ratings. Against a team dead last in offensive rating by a wide margin over that stretch of games, that should prove telling. The Nets have a young core of guards, so it is no surprise that over the last 10 games they have had issues taking care of the ball. They lead the league in turnover percentage. During that stretch of games the Knicks have been 11th in the league in steals and will be well positioned to force mistakes by Brooklyn. Let’s back New York to dominate.

Knicks vs Nets prediction: New York -17.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -18.5.

The Atlanta Hawks travel to face the Houston Rockets in a matchup that contrasts pace and style. Atlanta enters on an 11 game winning streak, including a 135-120 win over Dallas, showing strong offensive momentum. However, their season profile remains more balanced, with an offensive rating of 112.7 (9th) and a fast pace of 86.7 possessions (4th). That tempo has been key to their success, allowing players like Jalen Johnson to create in transition and generate consistent scoring opportunities.

Houston presents a much different challenge, ranking near the bottom of the league in pace at 82.0 possessions (28th) while owning an elite 103.7 defensive rating (2nd). The Rockets have already shown their ability to control this matchup with a 104-86 win over Atlanta earlier this season, keeping the game well under typical totals. Offensively, Houston has been inconsistent, including a recent 100-92 loss where they struggled late, but their defensive identity and tempo control remain their foundation. With Houston likely to slow the game down and limit possessions, this matchup projects to lean toward a more controlled, lower scoring environment.

Hawks vs Rockets prediction: Under 226.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 224.5

With the news of Cade Cunningham expected to miss a couple of weeks at least, the Boston Celtics might still have a chance of getting that top seed in the East. The Pistons are 4 games ahead in the standings with 13 left, so anything can still happen. The Celtics are in Memphis on Friday, facing a Grizzlies team that they blew out 131-95 back in November. The spread is at 15 points this time around, a clear indicator of which direction this game will unfold. Apart from Nikola Vucevic being out, the Celtics are pretty much at full strength. They just recorded their third win in a row, beating the Warriors by 21 points at home.

Memphis is also coming off a win, a surprising upset triumph over the Denver Nuggets that ended an 8-game slide. It is worth pointing out that the Nuggets were playing on a second night of a back-to-back in that game, which might have contributed to their downfall a bit. The Grizzlies aren’t doing themselves any favors by winning games; they would be better off tanking the rest of the way and improving their draft positioning. Their injury situation has been terrible all year long. Ty Jerome is the biggest threat to the Celtics in this game after his 21 points and 9 rebounds against the Nuggets.

This should be all Boston. The C’s are by far the more in-form team and are also playing for something, unlike their counterpart. Over the past 20 meetings, we have seen 18 wins for the Celtics and just 2 for the Grizzlies — while at FedEx Forum, the last 5 have seen the Celtics win 4. With Boston covering in 14 of the last 20 games head-to-head, I feel confident it can do so again despite the big spread. Let’s back the road team.

Celtics vs Grizzlies prediction: Boston -15 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Portland Trail Blazers travel to face the Minnesota Timberwolves in a Western Conference matchup that projects to be tighter than expected. Minnesota has been strong statistically, averaging 119.5 points per game while shooting 48.3% from the field, and ranking 9th in defensive rating (112.6). Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert anchor a team that recently dominated Utah 147-111, showcasing its ability to control both ends of the floor. However, the Timberwolves have shown vulnerability in faster paced matchups, particularly when forced into transition heavy games.

Portland has been more competitive than its record indicates, averaging 114.6 points per game over its last five games and 127.2 points per game over its last five wins, while going 4-1 in its last five contests. The Trail Blazers also rank inside the top ten in pace at 102.06 possessions per game, a factor that can disrupt Minnesota’s defensive structure. Minnesota is 2-0 in head to head matchups this season, with wins of 118-114 and 133-109, though those results highlight how pace and efficiency can swing outcomes. With Portland pushing tempo and showing improved offensive form, this game profiles as a competitive, back and forth battle rather than a comfortable win for the home team.

Trail Blazers vs Timberwolves prediction: Trail Blazers +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

Going on a 3-game winning streak couldn’t come at a better time for the Raptors, who are still holding on to the fifth seed in the East. However, the surging Hawks — who have won 11 in a row — are right behind them, so they need to be careful. Falling to the sixth seed would match them up with the Knicks, who dominated all 4 regular-season meetings. Friday sees the Raptors face the tall task of going up against Nikola Jokic and his Nuggets, trying to end a 5-game losing streak in head-to-head meetings. The first matchup saw a nail-biting finish, as Denver escaped Canada with a 106-103 win while playing without Jokic.

The 3-time MVP had 29 points, 14 rebounds and 9 assists, but he also turned the ball over 10 times in the Nuggets’ latest loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. It would be easy to just point the finger at Jokic and his turnovers and blame him for the loss; the reality is that the entire team just wasn’t on the level we’re accustomed to seeing from them. This game will serve as a good test if the Nuggets can bounce back against a really solid road team. Despite going 19-13 SU at home this season, Denver hasn’t been the most reliable of bets at Ball Arena — covering just 16 times in 32 games so far.

I was actually impressed by the Raptors in their last 3 games, as they beat the Suns, Pistons and Bulls by an average of 16 points. They have been really solid in road games this season, winning 20 of 33 and also covering 19 times. Their ATS record reads 6-2 in 8 meetings with Denver, I’m just not sure I can trust the Nuggets to win by more than 7 points. Give me Toronto plus the spread.

Raptors vs Nuggets prediction: Toronto +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.