NBA Picks

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The Boston Celtics travel to meet the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday, and the C’s look to maintain their mastery of the Cavs. Boston has won each of the first 2 meetings this season, including a 117-115 victory as a +7.5 underdog in the most recent meeting on November 30 in Cleveland. The under cashed in each of those games too, while going 4-1 in the past 5 installments in the series. Boston has won 7 of the past 8 meetings, while covering 3 of the past 4 encounters.

Jayson Tatum made his way back for the Celtics on Friday, playing in his season debut after recovering from an Achilles injury. Boston blasted Dallas 120-100 as a 15.5-point favorite, while Tatum was good for 15 points, 12 rebounds and 7 assists with 3 three-pointers. Center Neemias Queta also went off for 16 points and 15 rebounds with a block. For the Cavs, they topped the Detroit Pistons 113-109 as a +2.5 underdog at home on Tuesday despite Donovan Mitchell continuing to miss time with a groin. Jaylon Tyson stepped up with 22 points, including 5 three-pointers, while swatting 2 shots. But, to beat Boston, especially back at full staff with Tatum, the Cavs need Spida — which sounds like a possibility for Sunday’s game. Even then, Boston seems to have Cleveland’s number.

Celtics vs Cavaliers prediction: Boston Celtics -1 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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The New York Knicks have won 4 of their last 5 games heading into a showdown against the Los Angeles Lakers inside Crypto.com Arena in L.A. on Sunday afternoon. New York is playing stellar basketball, with only a 3-point loss to defending NBA champion Oklahoma City during this 5-game stretch. I expect momentum to continue, so my Knicks vs Lakers pick is for the visitors to win and cover. New York’s current 5-game road trip could not have started any better, as it absolutely humiliated Denver 142-103 on Friday night. Karl-Anthony Towns extended his double-double streak to 5 games with 17 points and 13 rebounds, while OG Anunoby delivered 34 points. It’s also worth noting that the Knicks’ fine form has been showing for a long time now, as they are also 16-5 SU in their last 21 overall. This can be explained in part by the fact that they have never been healthier this season than they are right now. Miles McBride (out until the playoffs following core muscle surgery) is the only player on the roster with any kind of injury designation.

Los Angeles is mostly healthy, too, although Deandre Ayton is questionable for Sunday with a knee problem. LeBron James (elbow) is probable. LeBron, however, has not been playing particularly well. The 41-year-old has been held under his season-long points per game average (21.4 ppg) in 6 of 8 contests since the all-star break. Ayton has been pretty much useless in recent weeks, so the Lakers can’t feel good about their presence down low regardless of his status. The Lakers are just 6-6 in their last 12 games; their relative struggles are likely to continue against such a red-hot and confident opponent.

Knicks vs Lakers prediction: New York -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Both the Dallas Mavericks and the Toronto Raptors will be looking to break their recent struggles tonight when they go head-to-head in Toronto. The Mavericks have lost their last 6 games, while the Raptors have lost 4 of their last 5 games.

The Mavericks may be without their young star Cooper Flagg for this matchup. Flagg, who averages 20.3 points per game on 47% shooting, is listed as questionable heading into this game. If Flagg plays, he will have to overcome a poor start to the month of March. In 2 games played this month, Flagg is only averaging 17 points per game on 31% shooting. With Raptors forward Brandon Ingram likely to miss this game with an illness, Toronto may be a good spot for Flagg and the Mavericks to bounce back — assuming Flagg will suit up.

The Raptors have not shown the home court dominance we have seen out of this franchise in years past. Toronto is only 16-16 when playing at Scotiabank Arena this season, scoring 112.7 points per game on 46.5% shooting in those games. Oddly enough, both numbers are lower than the team’s offensive output on the road. During the Raptors recent struggles, they have lacked offensive consistency. In the team’s most recent loss to the Timberwolves, the Raptors only scored 22 points in the third quarter. Before that loss, the Raptors fell to the New York Knicks 111-95 after scoring only 13 points in the 4th quarter.

With the Raptors not playing their best basketball heading into this matchup, while showing all season that their home court has not brought better offensive play, I’m not interested in Toronto here — nor Dallas for that matter. Instead, with both teams struggling, and potentially missing their best players, I’ll back the under in this matchup.

Mavericks vs Raptors prediction: Under 230 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Pistons and Miami Heat will play one another for the third and final time this season on Sunday evening, with the series currently split at a game apiece.  Detroit is in the midst of their longest losing streak of the season at 3 games, including a shocking loss on Saturday as -14.5 favorites against the 16-47 Brooklyn Nets. Meanwhile, the Heat enter with a rest advantage – having not played since Friday – and have rattled off 4 straight wins, including a pair of victories over the Nets. At the time of writing, the Pistons are slim favorites at -120, with the Heat playing the role of home underdogs at +100. When slated as a home dog, Miami is 6-2 against the spread, winning outright all 6 times.

Injuries on both sides are important to note for this matchup as the Heat remain without leading scorer, Norman Powell (22.5 ppg), while the Ausar Thompson is considered day-to-day for the Pistons. Cade Cunningham is also listed a game time decision and was sidelined on Saturday due to a quadriceps injury, so expect some line movement when his status is known. Given the uncertainty of Cunningham, I like a play on the moneyline for Detroit right now given the value. If Cunningham is ruled active this line will only shift further in favor of the Pistons. Even if Cunningham is unable to suit up, this could land as a nice bounce back spot for a Detroit team looking to get back in the win column.

Pistons vs Heat prediction: Detroit Pistons ML (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to (-140).

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Trae Young will play his second game as a Washington Wizard tonight when his team travels to the Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Pelicans. In 19 minutes played, Young scored 12 points and dished out 6 assists in a losing effort against the Utah Jazz. Not only was it Young’s debut on a new team, but it was also his return from being sidelined with an injury for months. Young may continue to see limited minutes tonight as he shakes off the rust and gets acclimated with his new teammates.

Someone to watch play alongside Young is Julian Reese. Reese showed that he can rebound just as well as his sister Angel after he became just the 3rd player in NBA history to grab 20 rebounds in one of his first five career games.

The Pelicans are returning home for this game after a 6-game road trip. New Orleans has played well, going 3-3 on the trip and 5-4 since the All Star Break. They have also recently welcomed back their starting point guard Dejounte Murray. Murray has played 5 games since returning from injury, averaging 15.4 points per game on 44% shooting. He joins a lineup with Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III, both of whom average more than 21 points per game.

With the Wizards losing 7 straight games, the Pelicans have clearly been the better team heading into this game, and they are set up in a good spot to get a win after returning from a long road trip. 

Wizards vs Pelicans: New Orleans Pelicans -10.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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For the Rockets, Sunday’s game is massive. Their form has been up and down lately, exchanging wins and losses in their last 5 outings. Despite failing to master consistency in this period, they have been able to keep hold of the third seed — mainly because the Nuggets have also struggled a bit in this period. Playing the Spurs will be a proper test. The Rockets’ only win against them this season came at home, so they are looking to even things out as far as the regular-season series goes.

We witnessed the comeback for the ages by the San Antonio Spurs in their last game, as they overcame a 25-point deficit and beat their former star Kawhi Leonard and his Clippers. That performance has the league on notice; San Antonio means business. Victor Wembanyama has been playing extremely well since the break. He delivered 27 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks in just 22 minutes against the Clippers. His matchup with Alperen Sengun down low could decide the outcome of Sunday’s game against the Rockets.

I find it hard to bet against the Spurs these days, no matter who the opponent is and no matter how big the spread is. For Sunday against the Rockets, the number is at 5 points — which is very reasonable considering that the Spurs’ 2 head-to-head wins have come by 11 and 12 points. Playing at home will also be a boost; in 29 games there, Wemby and company are a dominant 23-6 SU. I’ll back San Antonio.

Rockets vs Spurs prediction: San Antonio -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Orlando Magic are coming off a big 119-92 win yesterday on the road against the red-hot Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves were arguably playing the best basketball in the NBA heading into that game, and the Magic held them to 36% shooting at the Target Center in Minnesota. Tonight, the Magic will travel one state to the east to take on the struggling Milwaukee Bucks in the 2nd game of the back-to-back. The Bucks also played Saturday night, defeating the Utah Jazz 113-99 and snapping their 4-game losing streak.

Giannis Antetokounmpo will play despite the Bucks’ slim chances of making the playoffs. Antetokounmpo has seen a decrease in usage in recent games, which makes sense considering his playing time has decreased to around 26 minutes per game. With the Bucks 4 games out of the play-in tournament, Milwaukee may already be looking ahead towards the NBA Draft, while keeping Antetokounmpo on a minute restriction and healthy going into the offseason.

As the importance of each game fades for Milwaukee, the Magic go into this game in the middle of the dog fight that is the Eastern Conference. Seeds #5 through #8 are only separated by 1.5 games in the standings, and the Magic currently sit in the #6. Each game ahead will be important for Orlando, as they look to avoid the play-in. I believe the defensive pressure shown by the Orlando guards in Minnesota will be displayed again tonight against the Bucks’ young backcourt of Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. 

Magic vs Bucks prediction: Orlando Magic -4 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.

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Stop busting brackets and sign up for the Pickswise March Madness Premium Picks now! Our expert is up +30.7 units over the last 3 NCAA Tournaments and picked Florida at +4000 last year. Get futures picks and daily best bets throughout the entire tournament, all for just $50. Click here to join and get 20% off before Selection Sunday!

The Chicago Bulls travel to face the Sacramento Kings in a matchup that is extremely difficult to trust from a betting standpoint, as both teams enter in poor form late in the season. Chicago sits at 26-37 and has struggled to find consistency on either end of the floor. The Bulls average 114.7 points per game while allowing 117.9, and their defensive rating ranks in the bottom third of the league. Chicago plays at a middle-of-the-pack pace but often falls into long scoring droughts when games become half-court battles. The Bulls shoot 46.8% from the field and 35.9% from 3, numbers that look respectable on paper but rarely translate into sustained offensive runs — particularly against teams that slow the tempo.

Sacramento has endured one of the worst seasons in the league, entering this matchup at 14-50. The Kings average 112.1 points per game while allowing 121.6, giving them one of the worst scoring differentials in the NBA. Sacramento ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and also sits in the bottom tier in 3-point shooting at 34.1%. Despite the defensive struggles, many of Sacramento’s games still turn messy offensively because of inefficient possessions, missed perimeter shots and inconsistent half-court execution. When 2 struggling teams meet late in the season — especially one sitting well below .500 and another with the worst record in its conference — the pace often slows as energy and offensive precision disappear. This has the feel of a sloppy matchup in which neither team truly wants to be there, making a shootout unlikely despite the defensive numbers.

Bulls vs Kings prediction: Under 236 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 235.

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Stop busting brackets and sign up for the Pickswise March Madness Premium Picks now! Our expert is up +30.7 units over the last 3 NCAA Tournaments and picked Florida at +4000 last year. Get futures picks and daily best bets throughout the entire tournament, all for just $50. Click here to join and get 20% off before Selection Sunday!

The Indiana Pacers travel to face the Portland Trail Blazers in a cross-conference matchup in which pace and offensive efficiency will play a major role. Indiana remains one of the league’s higher-scoring teams, averaging 118.0 points per game — but defense has been an issue, as it allows 120.1 points per game. The Pacers push tempo and rank among the league leaders in assists, relying on ball movement and transition scoring to generate offense. However, that fast style does not always translate into consistent scoring on the road — especially when opponents force them into set possessions. When Indiana is unable to run, the offensive efficiency tends to dip and games often become more methodical.

Portland enters the matchup around the Western Conference play-in tournament picture with a 30-34 record and a relatively balanced statistical profile. The Trail Blazers average 115.8 points per game while allowing 118.0 points per game, playing at a pace of 101.1 possessions per game. Despite the faster tempo, Portland’s efficiency has been inconsistent — posting an offensive rating of 114.7 and a defensive rating of 116.6 this season. While both teams have the ability to push the pace, matchups like this often slow down when transition opportunities disappear. The Pacers’ defensive struggles sometimes force them into more cautious offensive sets, while Portland has had difficulty maintaining scoring efficiency in half-court situations. If the game settles into a controlled rhythm rather than a transition battle, the scoring pace could fall short of expectations.

Pacers vs Trail Blazers prediction: Under 236.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 235.

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Stop busting brackets and sign up for the Pickswise March Madness Premium Picks now! Our expert is up +30.7 units over the last 3 NCAA Tournaments and picked Florida at +4000 last year. Get futures picks and daily best bets throughout the entire tournament, all for just $50. Click here to join and get 20% off before Selection Sunday!

The hottest team in the league got cooled off a bit in its last game with Charlotte’s 128-120 home loss to Miami. The loss ended a historic streak of 6 wins in a row by double-digits, but the Hornets won’t be discouraged after that result as they head into Phoenix for a date with the shorthanded Suns. Charlotte’s turnaround this season has been very impressive — so much that it now goes into games as a favorite on a regular basis — even against teams that have better records. Over the years, the Hornets have not had the best of times in head-to-head meetings with Phoenix — winning only once in 9 such games.

Phoenix snagged a narrow 2-point win over the Pelicans earlier this week despite that game being the second night of a back-to-back. That is very encouraging for a team that has battled a lot of injuries lately — and with Dillon Brooks still being out due to a hand isse. Devin Booker is back and leading the charge offensively, so a lot will depend on his performance in Sunday’s game. It’s not often you get the Suns as home underdogs. For a long time they were the league’s most reliable ATS team this season, but just recently the Hornets actually overtook them. Phoenix is a far better home team than the one that goes out on the road — it is 21-13 SU in 34 games at the Mortgage Matchup Center.

The way the Hornets have been playing lately, it’s going to be hard to overlook them here for a lot of people. However, taking into account that some of those big wins during the streak came against tanking teams and the fact that the Suns have the superior head-to-head record, I’m going to lean Phoenix — but just barely.

Hornets vs Suns prediction: Phoenix +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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