NBA Picks

Many people have doubted this remarkable run of the Atlanta Hawks and after their latest win over the Boston Celtics, I think it’s safe to say that they are indeed for real. Only the Spurs and Thunder have a better record over the past 15 games than the Hawks’ 13-2 SU run, Atlanta has ranked 7th in offense and 5th in defense during this stretch as well. Wednesday sees them try to deliver a knockout punch to the Orlando Magic as the two teams meet for the 4th time this season, with the Hawks leading the regular season series 3-0. East teams have taken only one game from Atlanta in their last 11, apart from Jock Landale who is questionable they are pretty much at full strength here.

With just 3 wins in 10 games the Magic’s form has dipped significantly, they’ll be playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back here following last night’s close win over Phoenix. It was their 2nd win in 3 games, however in between those wins they suffered that embarrassing 52 point loss to Toronto. It was nice to get a win over Phoenix for sure, but I’m not ready to say all of the issues have been fixed just like that. After all they did commit 25 turnovers in the win, which makes it even that more impressive that they were able to pull out the win. Orlando is winless in 5 games vs East opponents, they’ve also covered just 3 times in 9 games vs teams from the Southeast Division.

The three-ball has gone ice-cold in the last 2 games for the Magic, with them connecting on just 9 and 10 threes. This team won’t wow you away with their play on the offensive end and that’ll prove to be the key against Atlanta here. The Hawks are flying high, scoring points for fun. They went over 120 in the last two meetings vs Orlando; they’ll also be encouraged by having the rest advantage here. I’ll side with the more proven team.

Hawks vs Magic prediction: Hawks -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This number immediately stands out simply because of how high it is. Totals approaching 240 automatically put the Under in my crosshairs, because they require near-perfect offensive conditions for four quarters. For this to go Over, multiple assumptions have to hold and each comes with risk. First, Philadelphia has to be consistently efficient offensively. While capable, they are not immune to stretches where the offense slows. Second, Washington has to contribute meaningfully to the scoring. That’s far less reliable. The Wizards have struggled to sustain offense and often fall into extended droughts, which is dangerous when trying to reach a number this high.

Even if Philadelphia scores at a strong clip, the total still depends on Washington keeping pace. If one side lags, even briefly, the margin for error disappears quickly. That’s the problem with inflated totals: they don’t account well for variance. There isn’t a team that can be undermined by the “V-word” more than the Wizards. Games rarely play out perfectly from start to finish. Missed shots, slower stretches, and game flow disruptions all work against a number this high. With both teams needing to deliver offensively to an unrealistic degree, the Over becomes a reach. That places the value squarely on the Under.

76ers vs Wizards prediction: Under 239.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 239.

This matchup is likely to be defined by defense and possession control, which immediately increases the value of an underdog, especially at home. This is a game where things will likely slow down, making possessions count, and forcing opponents into half-court execution. That naturally compresses margins and creates more volatility in the outcome. When possessions are limited and scoring is harder to come by, games often come down to execution in tight moments rather than overall firepower. That’s where Miami offers value. This is a game played in the inches and holding a ticket at +170 offers equity because of that.

What makes Miami equally appealing is that the Heat aren’t one-dimensional. If the game unexpectedly opens up, they have the ability to adjust and play at a higher tempo as well. That flexibility allows them to match whatever style Boston brings or if the C’s want to start firing off from three-point land. When two teams can mirror each other stylistically, value shifts toward the side catching plus money in the case at a near +200 price. Miami doesn’t just have a path to cover, they have a legitimate path to win outright. Heat outright. Lock it in.

Celtics vs Heat prediction: Heat ML (+170) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The San Antonio Spurs and Victor Wembanyama are not messing around. They’ve not taken their foot off the gas pedal one bit, even though the number two seed in the West is pretty much wrapped up at this point. Wemby just had a 41 point, 16 rebound and 3 blocks game in just 31 mins as the Spurs won their 9th game in a row. Their Net Rating during this win streak is an impressive +18 points, so it’s no wonder they’re once again double-digit favorites at Chase Center on Wednesday. The interesting part is, they have 2 defeats in 3 meetings with the Warriors this year, however in both those wins Stephen Curry went off for 46 and 49 points. In the lone meeting without him, San Antonio dominated by 13 points.

Everything hinges on Curry’s return for the Warriors, although he is close to coming back, there’s still no definitive date set for that to happen. To say that it’s been a struggle without him would be an understatement – the offensive rating falls off by almost 9 points per 100 possessions when Steph is out. The Warriors do have 3 wins in their last 4 games, but those came against Dallas, Brooklyn and Washington, not exactly competitive teams at this point of the season. They just got blown out by the Denver Nuggets 116-93, failing to cover for the 6th time in 7 games. Judging by their run of 6 games in a row without covering at home, it could be a struggle against San Antonio as well.

This is all about Wemby and him making his MVP case. The Spurs are showing no mercy, they are just the better team overall here and should dominate right from the get go. Golden State is 2 games away from the 9th seed with 7 left to play, they’ll be demoralized after last night’s Trail Blazers win against the Clippers. I’ll go with the safer option here and back San Antonio.

Spurs vs Warriors prediction: Spurs -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.