NBA Picks

After getting an unexpected extra 2 days of rest following the postponement of their game against Chicago, the Miami Heat are back on the road in Indiana on Saturday night. The Heat are banged up just like any other NBA team at this point, so having those extra 48 hours to recoup some of their energy levels could prove to be valuable ahead of this game. The last time we saw them they didn’t do well in the loss to Minnesota, scoring just 94 points in a blowout loss. Scoring should be a lot easier vs the Pacers who are the league’s 6th worst defense in terms of efficiency. Indy also ranks just 29th in offensive rating.

Rick Carlisle has finally entered club 1000 after his Pacers ended a 13-game losing streak with a win over the Charlotte Hornets. The former Mavs boss waited since December 8th to get his 1000th win as a coach, to say that is has been a struggle this season would be an understatement. Beating the Heat will be a challenge in itself. The Pacers have dropped 7 games in a row at home, plus they are only 3-7 ATS in 10 home games against this team. The first meeting played just under 2 weeks ago saw them concede 142 points in a 26 point blowout loss.

On occasions this Pacers team can pull off upsets, but I do not believe that will be the case on Saturday vs Miami. The Heat are hungry to get back on track after a pair of losses to Minnesota. Winning games like this one is a priority if they want to remain in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference. I’ll go with the more rested Miami team here.

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Predictions: Heat -7.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This matchup lines up cleanly when you focus on where and how these teams win games. The Clippers have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA, sitting at 4–14 away from Los Angeles. That weakness showed again recently when they were soundly beaten at Madison Square Garden, struggling to score efficiently or sustain defensive pressure in a double-digit loss to the Knicks. That’s notable because Detroit has played at a level this season where it’s fair to argue they’re at least comparable to, if not better than, New York. The worst part is they are playing at home.

Detroit in the Motor City has been outstanding. The Pistons are 14–3 at home, consistently defending with physicality, and winning the possession battle. Their success isn’t driven by hot shooting variance; it’s built on rebounding, rim pressure, and disciplined half-court defense — traits that translate night to night. That makes them a tough out for any visiting team, especially one that already struggles away from its own building. This isn’t a speculative play. The numbers, venue, and recent results all align. Detroit at home against a road-struggling Clippers team is exactly the type of spot to back the Pistons in a game they can in blowout fashion. Lay the price and don’t look back.

Clippers vs Pistons prediction: Pistons -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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The Dallas Mavericks have been rocked by the news that Antony Davis will be unavailable for an extended period of time, meaning that the team will be without their defensive anchor. He was also the teams main post scoring threat so without him, expect the team to play at a faster tempo, instead of looking to work the ball inside. Over the last 10 games they are already 4th in the league in pace but we could see a further increase in tempo from them here. Their opponents tonight are a Chicago Bulls team that that have ranked in the top half of the league in that category themselves. While they will be without the services of Josh Giddey, Tre Jones and Coby White should be able to keep the offense ticking.

The Bulls have had defensive issues of late, ranking 24th in defensive rating over the last 10 games. The visitors have been a more respectable 15th in that category, but as mentioned, expect a drop off without Davis. During that stretch of games the Bulls are also just 23rd in opponent 3-point percentage, so expect the Mavericks to have success from the perimeter tonight. At the same time, the Mavericks have been leading all teams in paint points during that time. Against a team with Nikola Vucevic protecting the rim, the hosts should be able to continue playing to their strengths. However, they have been 26th in opponent points in the paint too over those last 10 games so the Bulls should be able to score efficiently inside. With the pace of this game, it should lead to a high scoring contest.

Chicago Bulls vs Dallas Mavericks prediction: Over 233 available at time of publishing. Playable to 234.

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The San Antonio Spurs will travel this Saturday to take on the Boston Celtics in a non-conference matchup. The Spurs have a record this season of 26-11, and they are 12-6 when playing on the road. San Antonio has won three of their last five games, and they are coming off a 107-91 win over the Los Angeles Lakers in their last matchup. Keldon Johnson led the team in scoring with 27 points, and Victor Wembanyama added 16 points and 14 rebounds while coming off the bench. The Celtics have a record of 24-13 this season, and they are 12-6 on their home court. Boston has won 4 of their last 5 games, and they won their last matchup against the Toronto Raptors at a score of 125-117. Peyton Pritchard led the team in scoring with 27 points, and Jaylen Brown added 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists. 

Despite not having Jayson Tatum for the entirety of the 2025-26 season, the Boston Celtics have still been able to find success through their perimeter shooting. The Celtics are a prolific three-point shooting team. They attempt the second most threes per game in the NBA at 42.8 per contest, and they make them at the sixth highest percentage at 37.1% per game. This allows the Celtics to be able to compete with any team that they compete against. It will be a challenge for the Spurs to keep up with the Celtics shooting, especially considering how poorly the Spurs have been shooting in recent games. In their last seven games, the Spurs have only made 27% of their three-point attempts. This is well below their season average of 35%, which already has them ranked 20th in NBA. Playing on your home court will usually correlate with a good shooting night, and if the Celtics are making their perimeter shots, I’m not sure the Spurs will be able to keep up.

Spurs vs Celtics prediction: Celtics +1.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at the ML to (-110).

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The Charlotte Hornets will travel Saturday night to take on the Utah Jazz in a non-conference matchup. The Hornets have a record this season of 13-25, and they are 6-13 when playing on the road. Charlotte has lost their last two games, and they are coming off a 114-112 loss against the Indiana Pacers. LaMelo Ball led the Hornets in scoring with 33 points, but it was not enough to overcome the Pacers who had lost 13 games previous to this victory. The Jazz have a record of 13-24, and they are 9-11 on their home court. Utah had lost five straight games before they won their last contest. Their last win was against the Dallas Mavericks at a score of 116-114. Lauri Markkanen led the team in scoring with 33 points, and Keyonte George added 19 points and 7 assists.

After allowing 114 points in three quarters to the Portland Trail Blazers, head coach Will Hardy challenged the Jazz to pick up intensity on the defensive side of the court. In their last two games, Utah has answered the call with a better effort to slow down their opponent. On Wednesday, the Jazz held Oklahoma City to 18% from 3-point range in an overtime loss, and on Thursday, they held the Dallas Mavericks to only one made field goal in the final 5 minutes. The Jazz will be without Markkanen in this game, but offensively they can lean on Keyonte George. George has shown he is a budding superstar for Utah, averaging 24.1 points per game this season. His scoring, paired with an increased level of defensive intensity, is enough for me to back the Jazz on their home court tonight against the struggling Hornets.

Hornets vs Jazz prediction: Jazz +5 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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You’ve probably heard the cliché “it’s hard to beat the same team twice.” Now apply it to a back-to-back rematch, and that challenge gets even tougher. Minnesota just beat Cleveland by nine two days ago in Minneapolis, and that’s what the market will remember. But this is not the same setup. That’s why Cleveland is favored here with all things considered.

For one, the venue flips to Cleveland, and that matters since the T-Wolves have a strong home court presence. Second, the first game wasn’t as it appears – it swung on one defining stretch. These teams were essentially deadlocked at halftime before Minnesota detonated in the third quarter with 43 points, while Cleveland managed only 22. That quarter created the separation. Outside of that frame, the Cavaliers more than held their own. In fact, they nearly came back, cutting a 19-point deficit late in the third down to four points with a minute left. That rally is significant because it shows Cleveland can solve Minnesota’s looks and win stretches of basketball against them.

The key here is immediacy: Cleveland doesn’t have to “learn lessons over a week.” They get the rematch immediately, at home, with clear adjustments. Take away one disastrous quarter and the Cavs win — possibly comfortably. Because of recency bias, Cleveland is easy to fade. That’s why the value sits on them even here as the chalk.

Timberwolves vs Cavaliers prediction: Cavaliers -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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