NBA Picks

Indiana made the splashy move of acquiring Ivica Zubac before the trade deadline, but the Croatian big man isn’t likely to feature in the Pacers’ lineup until after the all-star break as he heals from an ankle injury. The team has lost 4 games in a row and is coming off a tough loss in Toronto. A lot has been said about teams tanking over these last couple of months of the NBA season, and Indiana falls into the category of teams who would be better off if they just gave up on the remainder of this season. Knowing the mentality of head coach Rick Carlisle, I do not believe he will allow his players to throw games on purpose.

The Knicks got a big win in Boston on Super Bowl Sunday, washing the bitter taste in their fans’ mouths following a 38-point demolition at the hands of the Pistons the day before that. KAT stepped up in the rebounding department with 10 boards, and he will have to play closer to the basket on Tuesday as Mitchell Robinson has been ruled out with an injury. The Pacers don’t necessarily rely all that much on attacking the rim, but if the painted area is wide open then they will look to change their approach. The Knicks will have things to respond with, though. Apart from that Detroit game, they have been putting up points in bunches over the past 9 games or so.

Only 1 point separated the 2 teams in the first meeting of the season, so can we really trust the Knicks to blow out Indiana? The Pacers are 5-2 ATS in 7 meetings, as well, and are playing without any pressure whatsoever today. Although they are hampered by injuries, I still feel like they’ll give it their best in this rivalry game against the Knicks. I’ll back Indiana plus the massive spread.

Pacers vs Knicks prediction: Indiana +12 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is primarily a number play because the total suggests an extreme offensive drought is expected. That assumption doesn’t align with the current direction of either team. The Clippers didn’t add perimeter scoring pieces like Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin to play exclusively in the mud. The goal was to add creation, spacing and secondary scoring to complement a defense-first foundation. Translation: more functional possessions, cleaner looks and a higher offensive ceiling than this total implies.

Los Angeles may still lean on its defense, but improved guard play naturally increases pace through quicker initiation and more efficient shot generation. Even a modest uptick in possession quality can make a low total vulnerable. Houston brings a similar dynamic from a different angle. The Rockets play physically, attack the glass, and defend with intensity, but their offensive upside is already established. They create pressure at the rim, generate second-chance opportunities and aren’t shy about pushing tempo when advantages appear. The key point is this: the market is pricing in a near-offensive grind, but neither team needs an outlier performance to clear this number. With both sides capable of reaching the mid-100s through normal game flow, the bar is simply too low. This is an over built on the offensive floor, not the offensive ceiling.

Clippers vs Rockets prediction: Over 210 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Dallas Mavericks enter this matchup below .500 and riding a 7-game losing streak following a major trade-deadline shakeup that sent Anthony Davis out and brought in Marvin Bagley III and Khris Middleton. Despite the struggles, Cooper Flagg has emerged as a bright spot, averaging 22.0 points and 6.6 rebounds over his last 10 games, while P.J. Washington adds 14.1 ppg and 7.1 rpg. Over that same 10-game stretch, Dallas is averaging 116.6 points, 46.9 rebounds and 25.4 assists per game, but defensive issues remain glaring; they hae allowed 118.3 ppg. The Mavericks have leaned more heavily on interior scoring and free-throw generation, yet inconsistent perimeter shooting and late-game defensive lapses have made it difficult to halt their slide.

Phoenix comes in at 31-22, favored at home despite a recent 3-game home losing streak and perimeter shooting woes — including a 23.9% performance from 3-point range in a loss to Philadelphia. On the season, the Suns are averaging 113.8 points per game, with 39.6% of their scoring coming from beyond the arc, supported by efficient 2-point scoring and strong free-throw shooting. Defensively, Phoenix produces 9.9 steals and 3.2 blocks per game, although rebounding has been inconsistent. In the most recent meeting between these teams, the Suns earned a 123-114 home win, led by 26 points from Devin Booker. With Phoenix generally more balanced offensively and stronger at home, especially when perimeter shots fall, the Suns are positioned to control tempo and scoring in this matchup.

Mavericks vs Suns prediction: Phoenix -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.

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The Los Angeles Lakers will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation when they host the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night. With Luka Doncic sidelined and fatigue possibly a factor, L.A. is a risky play. At the same time, giving 8.5 points with San Antonio is not particularly enticing. Instead, I will pivot to the game total. My Spurs vs Lakers pick is Over 228.5. Five of the Lakers’ 8 back-to-back second legs so far this season have resulted in 230 points or more. Additionally, the over is 3-0 in San Antonio’s last 3 overall and 7-2-1 in the last 10 head-to-head encounters.

LeBron James has played in both legs of each of Los Angeles’ last 2 back-to-back scenarios. With Doncic out and having lost on Monday, head coach JJ Redick really needs his veteran superstar back on the floor to take on one of the league’s best teams. James has scored 20 points or more in 5 of his last 6 appearances. Meanwhile, the Spurs have heated back up following a 2-3 stretch. They are riding a 4-game winning streak that has seen them score 135 and 138 points in the last 2 contests — both against the Mavericks. It was a good thing that San Antonio’s offense was rocking, because it gave up 123 and 125 points to Dallas in those 2 outings. Let’s roll with the over in this Tuesday night Western Conference blockbuster.

Spurs vs Lakers prediction: Over 228.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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