NBA Picks

Consistency has eluded the Miami Heat so far in 2026, as they’ve connected back-to-back wins on only one occasion so far. They also failed to land Giannis Antetokounmpo before the trade deadline, but despite all of this, they remain ambitious for the remainder of this season. Friday sees them take on the Boston Celtics, a matchup in which Erik Spoelstra and his men have largely struggled over the years — winning just once in 9 meetings. After seeing them connect on just 8 threes in their last game, which they lost against Atlanta, I’m having my doubts that the Heat can get a result here. Their optimism will be based on the fact that they’ve won 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

Boston has a 4-game win streak running going into this game, following a masterful performance in Houston, where they beat the Rockets by 21 points. Jaylen Brown isn’t getting any love in the MVP race, which is surprising, as he’s played an exceptional season leading his Celtics to a 33-18 record — good for 3rd in the East. In the win over the Rockets, the Cs knocked down 19 threes, and Friday’s game against Miami will likely depend on how well they shoot and defend the deep ball. Over the past 3 games Celtics opponents have shot just 31.3% from downtown. If they can limit Miami in this area, there’s a good chance they go up 3-0 in the regular season series.

Miami won’t go away without a fight here. However, Boston’s defense has left a really good impression on me over the past 4 games, as 3 opponents were held under the 100-point mark. Miami will look to run here, but I still have full confidence in the Celtics’ ability to knock down a ton of threes. Go with the home team.

Heat vs Celtics Predictions: Boston Celtics -7 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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What a turnaround it has been for the New York Knicks, who are now the hottest team in the NBA with an 8-game winning streak. They are looking to inch closer to the top-seeded Pistons as the 2 teams collide for the second time this season. The first meeting between them happened exactly a month ago, when the Pistons thoroughly dominated 121-90 at home. Knowing the mentality of these Knicks, I am convinced that loss has stuck with them ever since and they’ll play with an extra incentive on Friday to even things out. OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns are all on the injury report with various knocks, but none is expected to miss this game.

Detroit entered Thursday’s game against the Wizards as a 16.5-point favorite, but a nightmare start to the game saw them go down as much as 22 points and they could just never recover. The 9-point loss ruined a lot of bets I would imagine, and now — to make matters worse — the Pistons play on the second night of a back-to-back against a much tougher opponent. Jalen Duren is questionable to play with a knee problem; his absence would be catastrophic in the rebounding department, as the Pistons rely on him heavily to grab loose basketballs. In the end, I feel like it’ll all depend on Cade Cunningham, who had 29 points and 13 assists in the first meeting a month ago.

New York is the more rested team, motivated to even the regular-season series after that tough loss to Detroit in January. The Pistons are difficult to beat at home with 20 wins in 26 games — but after the embarrassment vs Washington last night, I am staying away from them. Let’s roll with the red-hot Knicks.

Knicks vs Pistons prediction: New York -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Indiana Pacers enter this matchup at 13-38, struggling mightily on the road with a 3-20 away record while averaging just 110.9 points per game. Offensively, Indiana leans heavily on Pascal Siakam (23.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.0 APG) and Andrew Nembhard (17.3 PPG, 7.5 APG), but the continued absence of Tyrese Haliburton has limited their shot creation and spacing. Defensively, the Pacers allow 118.7 PPG, often forcing them into uphill battles when their offense stalls. Recent losses to Utah and Houston underscore those issues, as Indiana struggled to sustain scoring runs or close out competitive stretches.

Milwaukee comes in at 20-29, also dealing with offensive inefficiency — averaging 112.1 PPG. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains sidelined with a calf strain, leaving the Bucks to rely on role players like Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins in the interim. Defensively, Milwaukee allows 116.1 PPG, but their home court familiarity has helped slow games down. The most telling data point came in their December meeting, a 111-94 Milwaukee win that totaled just 205 points — well below typical scoring expectations. With both teams lacking consistent half court offense and neither pushing tempo aggressively, this matchup profiles as another grind it out game.

Pacers vs Bucks Prediction: Under 222.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 221.5.

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The New Orleans Pelicans will be hoping to halt a 3-game losing streak when they visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night. Although the odds indicate that New Orleans probably won’t be able to accomplish that goal, it should at least be able to keep this contest somewhat close. One, the Pelicans really aren’t that bad. Two, they have no reason to tank since their first-round draft pick is controlled by the Hawks. Don’t be surprised if this game is more competitive than many expect.

Yes, New Orleans’ 13-40 record is terrible — but consider this: this club has not lost by more than 10 points since January 7. That’s almost exactly a full month. It’s also a span of 14 games. They have been competitive against plenty of tough opponents, too, so facing Minnesota on the road should not be too daunting a task. The Timberwolves are playing well, but they haven’t been dominant this week. A 2-point victory over the Raptors on Wednesday was preceded by a setback at Memphis on Monday. Julius Randle is questionable with a thumb injury, and the home side may be in a bit of an adjustment period after trading Rob Dillingham to Chicago for Ayo Dosunmu.

Pelicans vs Timberwolves prediction: New Orleans +10.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Yesterday, the Pelicans were a heavy fade target despite being favored by the most points this season as a 5.5-point favorite at Milwaukee. The Pelicans would lose outright in overtime, so naturally the reaction here is to double down and fade New Orleans again. That’s the bait.

Minnesota meanwhile is what the market would view as a reliable option. The Wolves play winning basketball and they are a forerunner for the Western Conference credentials. The Pels? A bottom feeder that can’t win when they are supposed to. As a result, the market is pouring on Minnesota here but if you follow suit, you pay a tax to do so. Whether or not the Timberwolves cover the margin is irrelevant, action on them is at an inflated number. Back the Pelicans who are looking to get right after last night’s disappointment.

Pelicans vs Timberwolves prediction: Pelicans +9.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +9.

The Los Angeles Clippers enter this matchup at 23-27, playing improved basketball of late and showing better offensive balance. Over their last 10 games, the Clippers are averaging 112.4 points per game while shooting an efficient 49.8% from the field. Kawhi Leonard continues to anchor the offense at roughly 27.6 PPG, with strong complementary contributions from role players like John Collins and Kris Dunn helping maintain scoring consistency. Los Angeles has also controlled the season series, highlighted by a dominant 131-90 win on Dec. 31, and has been reliable against the spread in recent Western Conference matchups, especially when dictating tempo and forcing turnovers. With the trade of James Harden, Kawhi will take full control of the reigns and should be a fun watch moving forward.

Sacramento comes in struggling at 12-40, scoring 112.3 PPG on the season but allowing a concerning 120.5 PPG, one of the weaker defensive marks in the league. Offensively, the Kings are led by Zach LaVine (around 19.5 PPG) and DeMar DeRozan (around 19.3 PPG), yet consistency has been a major issue, contributing to a 10-game losing streak entering this contest. While Sacramento can generate offense in spurts at home, defensive breakdowns, turnover issues, and poor recent form have made it difficult for them to close games or cover spreads. Against a Clippers team shooting efficiently and already proving matchup superiority, Sacramento faces an uphill battle to keep this one close.

Clippers vs Kings Prediction: Clippers -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4

The Memphis Grizzlies enter this matchup at 19-29, coming off a momentum boosting 129-125 win over Sacramento that snapped a six game losing streak. In that victory, Ty Jerome poured in 28 points on 10/14 shooting, while Ja Morant controlled the offense and facilitated efficiently. Memphis averages solid ball movement with roughly 29 assists per game, shoots 34.9% from three, and makes about 13.4 threes per contest. They’ve also had success against Portland this season, earning a 119-96 win in December with multiple players scoring in double figures. While the Grizzlies remain inconsistent defensively, their ability to share the ball and generate clean half court looks keeps them competitive.

Portland checks in at 23-28, returning home after a rough stretch that has seen them lose six straight games, but they get a boost with Scoot Henderson returning from a hamstring injury. The Blazers have been rolling out inconsistent lineups the past week or so, however Deni Avdija should be returning. They continue to generate offense at home, averaging 14.1 made three pointers per game in Portland. Defensive lapses and turnovers have hurt them during the skid, but home court advantage provides a stabilizing presence. With Memphis prone to defensive breakdowns and Portland desperate to halt its slide, the Blazers are positioned to create separation, especially if their perimeter shooting shows up early.

Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers Prediction: Trail Blazers -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number