NBA Picks

The Toronto Raptors hit the road for Rocket Arena for their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Raptors won and covered all 3 regular-season meetings against the Cavaliers, and each of the victories came by at least 11 points, with an average margin of victory by 11.7 points per game. While that’s impressive, it is also notable that these teams haven’t met since late November, and a lot has changed since then. In fact, Toronto is just 1-4 against the spread in the past 5 road games, although it was 3-1 ATS in the final four games, and 11-6 ATS in the final 17 outings of the regular season.

The Cavaliers have won all three previous playoff series against the Raptors, with each of the meetings coming in successive seasons from 2016 through 2018. Cleveland is 12-2 SU in those meetings, and each game was during the second era of LeBron James’ time with the Cavaliers. The Cavs finished out the regular season with 5 victories in the final 6 games, while going 3-1 ATS in the past 4 outings. However, they’re just 6-12-1 ATS in the past 19 outings. Cleveland could very well win this one, but Toronto catching more than 4 buckets is a little too much.

Raptors vs Cavaliers prediction: Raptors +8 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +6.5.

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For the 2nd season in a row, the Timberwolves finish the year 49-33 and enter the postseason as the 6th seed in the loaded West. They’re looking to go back to the West Finals for a 3rd straight season, however, as far as optimism goes heading into the postseason, I’d argue it’s at its lowest since this impressive run they’ve been on. The main issues revolve around Anthony Edwards and his right knee injury, because of which he’s played in just 3 times since mid-March. On top of that, one of their key role players Jaden McDaniels is also struggling with a left knee issue; these are major red flags if you’re a Timberwolves supporter.

The Nuggets have had their fair share of injury issues this year, but they look a lot better going into Game 1 with most of their big name players being healthy. Getting a 5-day break before the postseason begins will be massive for them, especially Jamal Murray — who has had to carry an additional load with Jokic and Gordon missing a decent chunk of the season. Expectations are high in the Nuggets camp going into this postseason. Some people were questioning whether they want to face Minnesota in Round 1, but I think a team led by a 3-time MVP doesn’t really care who comes their way. Aside from the Thunder, I’d argue the Nuggets are the team to beat in the Western Conference playoffs, and yes I did not forget about the Spurs.

Setting the tone in Game 1 could be the key for the rest of the series. As we all know, these two have a history of playing each other on the biggest stage. We all still remember that upset win in Game 7 for Minnesota the last time they matched up in the postseason. Something tells me the Nuggets didn’t forget about that painful experience, so I think they’ll take the T’Wolves far more seriously this time around. They won 3 of 4 meetings during the regular season, and 2 of those were decided by double-digits. I’ll take my chances with Jokic and co. in the series opener on Saturday.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction: Denver Nuggets -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The NBA playoffs are finally here, and one of the most intriguing series comes in the Eastern Conference between the Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks. This matchup profiles as one that could be pretty similar to what we saw a season ago in the first round, as the Knicks knocked off the then-upstart Pistons in a competitive 6-game series that featured a couple of wild finishes. Atlanta enters this postseason fresh off an outstanding second half of the campaign, and no team saw their point differential increase more than the Hawks over the course of the last 30 games. However, a lot of that did come against a pretty weak schedule, and this is a much tougher test for a team that doesn’t have much of a veteran presence at key positions. Ultimately, this is a series that should be competitive and feature plenty of interesting basketball, but it’s still a matchup that pretty clearly favors New York. The cream should rise to the top over the course of a 7-game series, and that should start in Game 1 with a win and cover for the Knicks at Madison Square Garden.

Atlanta’s offense should have some avenues for success, particularly when it comes to generating open threes for the likes of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who excelled against New York in the regular season. However, outside of NAW and some occasional bursts for Jalen Johnson, the Hawks ran into some real problems against Mike Brown’s defense down the stretch. Furthermore, the Knicks are a team that is very comfortable in the 4th quarters of these playoff settings, and it’s hard to overstate just how important that is against a fairly inexperienced team on the other side. From a schematic perspective, Atlanta will certainly look to disrupt Jalen Brunson by blitzing him with its rangy wing defenders in order to get the ball out of his hands in big spots. With that said, when it comes to swinging the ball and generating good looks for his teammates, I’ll certainly trust Brunson to consistently make the right read when it matters. Furthermore, the ancillary pieces on New York (Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, etc.) are simply more trustworthy compared to Atlanta’s personnel, which gives the Knicks a significant edge in this one.

If New York is going to start fast at home on Saturday, it will probably do so by at least a couple of possessions. In fact, the vast majority of teams that tend to win games in the NBA playoffs also cover spreads. We are now on a 6-year run of straight up winners covering the spread at nearly an 89% clip, and I see no reason for that to tail off this postseason. With that in mind, I’ll continue to follow this trend and lay a relatively short number with the Knicks in a game where New York should do enough to put away the Hawks in front of its home fans.

Hawks vs Knicks prediction: Knicks -5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Knicks -5.5

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Friday’s play-in tournament game vs Charlotte perfectly encapsulates this entire Orlando Magic season. Just two days after getting smacked by the 76ers and their star player Paolo Banchero going 7-for-22 and committing 6 turnovers, the Magic completely flip the script and win by 31 points to make it into the postseason. Now the real deal begins, as they head to the Motor City for Game 1. The Magic actually tied the Pistons 2-2 in the regular season, but it’s worth pointing out they had a 19-20 SU record in away games. Only 3 wins in 11 games vs East opponents makes the Magic one of the more inconsistent teams right now.

The Pistons have been anything but inconsistent. Expectations are high going into the Playoffs after a 60-win regular season. Cade Cunningham successfully returned following a punctured lung, playing in the final 3 regular season games and regaining some of the momentum lost due to his absence. A good sign for the Pistons is certainly the fact that they didn’t fall off when he wasn’t there, in fact they were the 3rd best defense in the league over the final 15 games played. And that’ll be the key to this series, if the Pistons can maintain their high level of play on that end they’ll be in a good spot.

Detroit had an entire week off to rest before this game, while the Magic played two grueling play-in games. These Pistons are hungry for success, especially Cade who has had his way with the Magic defense averaging 32.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 10.7 assists in 3 meetings. I don’t think they’ll be able to contain him in the opener, so let’s back Detroit to cover here.

Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons Game 1 Predictions: Pistons -8.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.