NBA Picks

This is a total that’s priced like a grinder but the problem is that it is easily beatable. The over is the cleaner way to bet it. We know that both Detroit and Houston have been two of the league’s most reliable win on defense and win on the glass type of teams. The Pistons and Detroit are long, physical, and comfortable living in half-court possessions. When those identities meet, the assumption is a rock fight will unfold but the number is deflated here for that very reason. Can both teams score 110 points in this match? Ask yourself that. The answer is, of course they can and that’s all they need to do to get this ticket home. This isn’t a total sitting absurdly in the 240’s. No, this is the other end of the spectrum.

The spread also matters. The Pistons are not a pick-em, they are priced as a mid-range 4.5-point favorite. That means that the market expects control from the Pistons. That also means this is simply not a matter of a knuckle-dragger grinding out to the last possesion, but Detroit actually setting the terms of engagement. The line indicates that Detroit’s offense will have some form of a breakthrough. We can dance around this subject as much as we’d like but at at a total this low, the prudent move is to defy convention and look at the over. Not much is required for it to cash.

Rockets vs Pistons prediction: Over 217 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

Phoenix’s offense is built to travel. The Hawks can score too, but their worst trait is the one that matters most in short spreads: defensive consistency. They tend to give away “free points”. The Hawks endure transition miscues and opponents can shoot the ball well overall against them. That is the recipe for how Phoenix covers this modest number. The Suns are the better team on both sides of the court.

Phoenix’s defense and physicality is built to dominate but if somehow this becomes a trading-buckets game, Phoenix is the team more likely to maintain shot quality across all four quarters rather than living and dying by streaks like the Hawks have done all season long. Atlanta’s offense can spike, but they’re more prone to the droughts either. Against a team with Phoenix’s profile, a lull in scoring should be expected. The question is does Atlanta have the wherewithal to keep the Suns in check when they start launching? No, they don’t. Phoenix is also entering with a lot of momentum, they have won six of their last eight matches overall. The Suns are in form and they play cleaner with fewer live-ball turnovers and better overall execution. Phoenix has a sturdy offense and fewer defensive breakdowns. All the things you want in a favorite. Lay the points.

Suns vs Hawks prediction: Suns -2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

Big spreads are less about who wins and more about whether the favorite can create margin for 48 minutes. Cleveland can absolutely win this game and it should — but this specific price point (double digits) has been the Cavs’ problem area. On an interesting note, Cleveland has been favored in this range eight times and covered only once, which is exactly the profile you want to target. Even if that means you have to back the Kings. There is a key context as to why the Cavs struggle to make the long swim back. The Cavaliers are a team that live and die by their offense, most notably, their ability to dial up from downtown. On a good night, Cleveland can bury you. On a bad one? They can get beat by anyone, including this lowly Sacramento team.

Sacramento’s cover route is simple and repeatable: Cleveland doesn’t shoot lights out from beyond the arc. Variance can do the heavy lifting. At a number this inflated, not much variance is required to get the Kings to the window. If the Kings can avoid turnovers and play smart, they don’t need to outplay Cleveland to be in position— they just need to avoid a fireworks show from the Cavs which can lead to the cover taking care of itself.  It is also worth pointing out that much of this is about fading optics. The Kings have won just three games on the road this year and they are 12-33 overall. That almost certainly means that Sacramento will be taking back an inflated number here since they are in a spot where bettors will be avidly against them. Against a team like the Cavaliers who are anchored by a style of offense that is a cold night away from mediocrity, we’ll take our chances on the heavy allotment of points. The Kings can come in under this number, contrary to popular opinion.

Kings vs Cavaliers prediction: Kings +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the +11.

Expectations are very low for the Indiana Pacers going into Friday’s game against the defending champs. This team has dropped 3 games in a row, two of which were double-digit blowouts. The injury situation has slightly improved compared to the first month and a half of the season, but at this point most people have given up on the Pacers doing anything significant this season. With just 2 wins in 21 road games it’s hard to take this team seriously, especially when they’re going up against the best team in the NBA. They did hang with the Thunder in the first meeting pretty well, losing only by 6 points in a game that saw a combined 276 points and double OT.

SGA and co. return home from a successful 4-game road trip where they went 3-1 SU, with the only hiccup being a loss in Miami against the Heat by just 2 points. They ran over their last 2 opponents the Cavs and Bucks by 32 and 20 points, I think we can all agree that the Pacers are nowhere close to the level of play of those two teams at the moment. Nevertheless, the Thunder will have to guard against complacency here, especially since most people have them penciled in to win this game by a lot of points even before tip-off.

The spread might look too big at first glance, but I don’t think the defending champs will mess around here. They are in solid form and their last 2 wins tell us they are still locked in and hungry to pile up the wins in the loaded Western Conference. I’m backing the home team here.

Indiana Pacers vs OKC Thunder Predictions: Thunder -16.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The absence of Nikola Jokic is starting to catch-up with the Nuggets who have now dropped two games in a row, with their offense really struggling to get into the flow of things. Another tough match-up awaits them on Friday as they take on the desperate Bucks on the road. Denver narrowly edged out Milwaukee in the first meeting by 4 points despite being without 3 key starters, including Jokic and Murray. They’ve generally been reliable in road games this season, covering 15 times in 24 outings. Oddly enough they’ve also recorded 5 more road wins than home wins this season overall.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. The Bucks find themselves in a rut with just 1 win in 5 outings and their superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo being disgruntled. Some analysts have gone far as saying it’s only a matter of time these two are separated with a trade, after seeing the home crowd boo Giannis last week that scenario would hardly surprise anyone. Losing by 20 in their last game to the Thunder only further solidified that this team isn’t exactly a playoff contender as currently constructed. After more than half of the games played in the regular season, the Bucks find themselves not even in the play-in tournament, currently occupying the 11th seed.

Oddsmakers have been generous towards the Nuggets over the past several weeks, in terms of setting the spread. Jokic’s absence is a big deal, on any given night they can fall apart offensively without their charismatic big man. Despite that though, I still feel like they’ll be within a chance to beat the dysfunctional Bucks. Go with the road squad and the extra points here.

Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks Predictions: Nuggets +6.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.