NBA Picks

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After falling short last night to the New York Knicks 110-107, the injured Golden State Warriors will travel to Washington to take on the Wizards with less than 24 hours between games. The Warriors are in a tough spot of their season, losing 5 straight games. Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Al Horford are all out with injuries. Good news for Golden State is that head coach Steve Kerr expects Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis to return from injury tonight. Brandin Podziemski will happily welcome back the tow returning players. Podzienski has been forced into the number one scoring option with all of his teammates out with injury. He had 25 points against New York and has averaged 18 points in his last ten games. When considering all of the Warriors’ injuries and their short turnaround time, I’m still not going to immediately jump on the Wizards to cover tonight at home. The Wizards are in the middle of their second longest losing streak of the season. They have lost 11 straight games, with 8 of those losses coming by more than 7.5 points. A lot of the games during the losing streak have come on the road, but still three out of the four losses at home came by more than 7.5 points. The Wizards are dealing with injuries of their own. They will be without Alex Sarr to counter Green and Porzingis. Kyshawn George will also miss this game after having his return to the court re-evaluated. Trae Young will suit up for Washington, but his minutes have been limited. He has only averaged 20 minutes per game in his last ten games. The Wizards are the NBA’s second worst team in defensive efficiency, but they have been making their case in recent weeks to be considered the worst. The over has hit six of the Wizards last eight games. With the Warriors needing to win games down the stretch, I expect their offense to come out scoring and take advantage of the Wizards playing without Sarr.

Over 231.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Magic City Night in Atlanta got cancelled by the NBA, but that obviously doesn’t impact the game — nor does it diminish what has suddenly become an absolutely massive matchup in the Eastern Conference. The Atlanta Hawks own the league’s longest current winning streak at 9 games, while the Orlando Magic are not far behind at 7 in a row. Atlanta is just 2 games outside of a top-6 spot in the East; Orlando is only 1 game inside that automatic playoff cut line. In other words, the stakes could not be much bigger. With both teams playing great and scoring a bunch of points on a consistent basis, my Magic vs Hawks pick is Over 231.5.

During its 9-game surge, Atlanta has scored at least 115 points on 8 occasions — including 122 or more in 6 of the last 7 outings. Six different guys have led the team in scoring during this streak, showcasing the Hawks’ depth — especially on the offensive end of the floor. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has matched or exceeded his 20.0 ppg season average in 4 of the last 5 games, including 29 points against Dallas last Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Magic have put up at least 121 points in 4 consecutive contests. Four different players have led the team in scoring over the past 6 games. Paolo Banchero (22.3 ppg) has scored 25 points or more in 4 of the last 5 games. Let’s roll with the over for what should be an extremely entertaining affair — with or without the official Magic City Night festivities.

Magic vs Hawks prediction: Over 229.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 232.5.

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After dropping a game yesterday on the road to the injury-filled Philadelphia 76ers, the Portland Trail Blazers will look to get back on track tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. The Trail Blazers have alternated wins and losses since March 1st, so if trends continue, tonight should end in Portland’s favor. The Trail Blazers are a young and exciting team, but recently the youth part has caused some mistakes and inconsistencies. In their loss against Philadelphia, Portland committed 17 turnovers. In the game before against Utah, the Trail Blazers had 24 turnovers. The Trail Blazers rank in the last place in the NBA in turnovers by committing on average 17.3 per game. 

The good news for the Trail Blazers is the Nets are only one spot above them. Brooklyn ranks 29th in the NBA with 15.9 turnovers per game. The Trail Blazers should be able to lean on their defense in this game with the Nets missing players like Michael Porter Jr. and Noah Clowney. The Nets have not put up a lot of points recently. In their last 3 games, the Nets have only scored an average of 98 points per game with a combined field goal percentage of 41%. The Nets rank 27th in the NBA in total pace, so if the shots continue to miss, this game should stay well below the total.

Under 221.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at 219.5

The Dallas Mavericks travel to face the New Orleans Pelicans in a Western Conference matchup between two teams trying to finish a difficult season on a positive note. Dallas enters around 21-44 and has struggled on both ends of the floor, averaging 113 points per game while allowing 117. Rookie standout Cooper Flagg has been one of the Mavericks’ few bright spots, recently recording 27 points and 10 assists in an upset victory over Cleveland. However, Dallas has lost 19 of its last 22 games, with players trying to provide secondary scoring as the team deals with injuries and roster limitations.

The New Orleans Pelicans have experienced their own inconsistency but remain slightly more competitive offensively, averaging about 115 points per game with balanced scoring across the roster. Trey Murphy leads the team with 22 points per game, while the rest of the team has been solid defensively on the perimeter. New Orleans also defeated Dallas 119-113 earlier this season and enters this matchup with a scheduling advantage, as the Mavericks are playing four games in five days, creating potential fatigue issues. With Dallas struggling defensively and facing a difficult stretch of games, the Pelicans appear positioned to control the pace at home and pull away late.

Mavericks vs Pelicans Prediction: Pelicans -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9

The Memphis Grizzlies travel to face the Chicago Bulls in a matchup between two teams looking to find consistency late in the season. Chicago enters the game around 27-40, while Memphis sits near 23-43, with both teams struggling to sustain momentum. Offensively, the clubs have produced nearly identical numbers this season, as Chicago averages about 115.9 points per game compared to Memphis at 115.8, while both shooting 46% from the field. Despite the similar scoring output, Chicago has struggled to deliver when expected to win comfortably, posting a concerning 6-18 record ATS as a favorite, a trend that has made them unreliable in this role.

Memphis has quietly been more competitive recently, covering in six of its last nine games while continuing to push tempo and share the ball offensively. The Grizzlies average close to 29 assists per game, relying on ball movement and balanced scoring to stay competitive even during a difficult season. Chicago’s young core has shown flashes offensively, but the Bulls have struggled to close out games during recent stretches. With Chicago’s difficulties covering spreads as favorites and Memphis showing signs of competitiveness in recent games, this matchup projects to be closer than the line suggests.

Grizzlies vs Bulls Prediction: Grizzlies +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5

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During this 5-game win streak the Lakers have impressed on both ends ranking 5th in offense and a really good 9th on defense in terms of efficiency. Luka Doncic has looked like a man possessed out there, averaging 38.2 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.4 assists. Even the return of LeBron James from injury didn’t disrupt the Lakers’ play as much as some people thought it would. LBJ has been able to adapt his game, he is now basically a 3rd option on offense behind Luka and Reaves, doing a lot more work on other areas such as rebounding and finding open teammates. Playing the Rockets couldn’t have come at a better time for LA, they’ve won 14 of 20 meetings with this team and a victory here gives them a significant boost in their effort of claiming the 3rd seed in the West.

Despite the Lakers’ win streak, the oddsmakers still favor the Rockets here, but only by a couple of points. KD and co. barely survived at home against the recently resurrected Pelicans, winning by just 2 points. Houston has been very inconsistent lately, failing to connect back-to-back wins so far in the month of March. On top of that Alperen Sengun is dealing with a back issue which could limit him if he’s able to go here. A lot is expected out of Amen Thompson in this game. He matched up really well against Doncic at the point guard position in the first meeting, carrying the Rockets with 26 points and 7 rebounds in a dominant 23-point win.

Apart from Maxi Kleber being absent, the Lakers are pretty much at full strength in this one. They are the more in form team, plus let’s also not underestimate the revenge factor as they look to even the regular season series here. These teams will play each other again on Wednesday in the same arena, I’m convinced the Lakers will win at least one of these two games. Back Los Angeles on Monday.

Lakers vs Rockets prediction: Lakers +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Victor Wembanyama’s return to the line-up sparked a double-digit win over Charlotte on Saturday and now San Antonio aims to win back-to-back games, taking on the Clippers. That last meeting between the two teams is still fresh in our minds, San Antonio managed to erase a 25-point deficit in the 4th quarter, when the win probability percentage was at 95% in favor of the Clippers. It would be wise if they didn’t put themselves in a similar situation on Monday, you’d think a team like the Spurs would learn a thing or two from that game. Dylan Harper and Luke Kornet are the two absentees from injury, San Antonio will be encouraged by their 7-1 SU run in 8 road games going into this one.

The Clippers fumbled the ball in their last game, losing to the tanking Sacramento Kings 118-109. Kawhi Leonard was on a roll with 31 points in that game, but had to leave early in the 4th quarter after twisting his ankle. That means he won’t be at 100% here, it’s hard to put in words how much he’s meant to this Clippers team since the departure of Harden and Zubac. The thing that should worry LA fans going into a match-up with a team like San Antono is the team’s lack of 3-point making. Their last two games have seen the Clippers score just 9 threes vs Sacramento and Chicago, far too low by today’s standards. For the season the Clippers are making just 12.2 threes per game which ranks them in the bottom 10 of the NBA.

San Antonio is making 16.7 threes per game in their last 3 games, take that disparity into account along with Kawhi’s ankle sprain and the mismatch Wembanyama has at the center position, I think this game is San Antonio’s to lose. With 17 wins in 19 games they are arguably the most in-form team in the league, they’ve also been a reliable bet during this stretch covering 14 times. I’ll be backing the road squad here.

Spurs vs Clippers prediction: Spurs -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.