NBA Picks

Although the Bulls managed to survive against the Pelicans and Magic without Josh Giddey, their last 2 losses against Charlotte and Boston showed us just how valuable he is to this team. In both of those games the offense looked stagnant at times; they managed just 99 and 101 points in those double-digit losses. Now they face an even tougher challenge against the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday, the oddsmakers aren’t feeling too optimistic about the Bulls’ chances with the spread set at +10.5 points. Only 1 of the last 5 meetings went Chicago’s way, plus it is just 1-4 ATS during that stretch.

Order has been restored atop of the Eastern Conference with the Pistons winning their last two games. For a minute there people thought Detroit finally caved, but with wins against the Cavs and Knicks they just reaffirmed themselves as the best team in the Conference. Cade Cunningham has been playing extremely well, he does have a wrist issue right now — which has him on the injury report as a game-time decision. That’s basically the only worry I have ahead of this game from a Pistons perspective. Detroit has won all 3 games in which Cunnigham has sat out this year, but it goes without saying that they’re simply not the same team without their best player.

After seeing the Bulls score 99 and 101 points in their last 2 games, I can’t see them turning things around so swiftly as they take on the 2nd best defense in the league this season. Detroit is a convincing 13-2 SU in 15 home games; it has also won 6 of 7 against Central Division opponents. I’ll go with the top team in the East.

Bulls vs Pistons prediction: Detroit -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Boston is 23–12, on a four-game win streak, and just beat Chicago 115–101 on Monday while Denver comes in extremely banged up: Nikola Jokic is out while Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are all listed as game-time decisions. However, Denver just went into Philadelphia on Monday as +14.5 underdogs and beat the 76ers 125–124 in overtime, with Jalen Pickett (29), Peyton Watson (24) and Bruce Brown (19) carrying the load. That’s the sign of a team who believes in a next-man up mentality.

Boston’s a superb basketball team and they are presently riding a 7-2 heater against the spread. That almost certainly is influencing market perception and pricing here. However, that creates an opportunity once again on the visitors. Given Denver’s depth showing it can compete without Jokic, how we can not come back on Denver here in this spot too? Boston likely wins, but that is not a guarantee. With that being said taking back +9.5 with the Nuggets is too rich. Denver or nothing.

Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics prediction: Denver Nuggets +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.

On the surface, this matchup looks like a spot where you simply side with the steadier team. Toronto has been playing well, going 4–1 straight up and ATS over its last 5, and the market clearly respects that form. Charlotte, by contrast, owns a 13-23 record and a profile that makes them an easy team to dismiss in most matchups. In a near-pick’em environment, the default instinct is to back the team with the winning record — but that’s exactly where the number becomes interesting.

Despite Toronto’s optics, the price implies the underdog is live here, and that makes perfect sense to us. Charlotte has already beaten the Raptors twice this season, including a 25-point win where the Hornets controlled late-game tempo and execution. They’ve also demonstrated an ability to step up against better competition, posting recent road wins in Chicago and Oklahoma City, proof that their ceiling is higher than their record implies. Before these 2 wins, the Hornets nearly upset Milwaukee in the Fiserv Forum and hung with Golden State. This is a team that has clearly turned a corner and has a New Year’s resolution of elevating its game. We’re not worried about records; we are concerned with finding value in the numbers. This is a game Charlotte can win and to get at a plus-money price makes it a delicious option on tonight’s menu.

Raptors vs Hornets prediction: Charlotte ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ask yourself – Should the present iteration of the Denver Nuggets be priced in the same range with the Washington Wizards? That’s essentially what we have here after Philadelphia was a 14.5-favorite on Monday, after opening as a 10.5-point choice. However, the market would likely disagree with that premise. Thus, Philadelphia looks discounted here. But if you delve a bit deeper into the line, it says a lot. This is a proclamation of reassurance with the Wizards. Washington has quietly become more competitive: they’re 5–2  in their last seven. But the market will dismiss that and quickly point out that the Wizards have been owned in this series as the Wizards have won only once in the last 10 vs Philly. But this is a spread play, not a moneyline bet. So the question remains: should Philadelphia be laying this many points to anyone? The fact that they lost in overtime outright to said Denver side would be a big, fat, NO.

Double-digit favorites need sustained dominance to cover; Philly, however, is not dominant and there is no motviation for it to chase the margin here — just a win. The Wizards simply need to be competent—and the recent data says they’re able to do that. And for those quick to jump ship on the Wizards here, let us remind you that back in October when these two sides met, overtime was also required. Philly that time around, simply got away. We wouldn’t be surprised if lightning struck again in the City of Brotherly Love this evening but as we wrote before, we are not interested in an outright upset, just Washington to come in under a number that is too large.

Wizards vs 76ers prediction: Washington +12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Trey Murphy III had himself a game last night torching the Lakers for 42 points, but his Pelicans couldn’t take advantage of his stellar performance and lost for the 8th game in a row. They now take their less than impressive 2-13 SU road record to Atlanta for a date with the Hawks who are trying to turn things around. During the losing streak only Dallas and Sacramento have a worse offensive rating than the Pels, while on defense they’re allowing 122.5 points per 100 possessions which ranks them 28th in the NBA. Only the Kings have a worse Net Rating over the last 8 games, teams are beating the Pelicans by an average of 12.2 points per game.

Atlanta is in a bit of a rut right now, but there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel as the stalemate between them and Trae Young finally looks to be over. The superstar point guard has formally requested a trade, we may have seen the last of him in a Hawks uniform as the team looks to move him in the coming days or weeks. When Young sits this team is 15-13 SU, while with him present in the line-up they’ve won just twice in 10 games. Jalen Johnson takes over the reigns on the offensive end as he is now the number one option. I’m also looking at Kristaps Porzingis to have an impact on this game, the combination of his size and shooting ability is something the Pelicans will have major issues with.

Assuming Young sits, this should be all Hawks. They have the rest advantage here, playing against a struggling Pelicans team at home. The first meeting saw Atlanta win 115-98 in New Orleans on November 23rd, it was their 4th win in 5 meetings. New Orleans is just 2-18 SU in 20 road games, I’ll take the Hawks here.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Atlanta Hawks Predictions: Hawks -10.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Phoenix Suns wrap up a quick two-game trip to Houston and Memphis. The Suns are looking to bounce back after a 100-97 loss in Houston, although the Suns were able to grab the cover as an 8.5-point underdog. The Suns have covered three in a row, while going 9-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 10 outings. The good news is that the Suns are relatively healthy, too, with only Jalen Green (hamstring) still out, and Jamaree Bouyea, a reserve, in the concussion protocol. Still, Phoenix is playing well lately, and it has been a cover king for bettors.

The Memphis Grizzlies just played Tuesday, and now face the difficult turnaround. The good news is that the Grizzlies were able to sleep in their home beds, as last night’s game against the San Antonio Spurs, a 106-105 win, was also in the Forum. Memphis cashed as a 6-point underdog ast he Under (238.5) cashed, but the Grizz are just 2-3 ATS in the past 5 games, and 4-5 ATS in the previous nine outings. While Memphis has won six in a row in this series, as inexplicable as that is, Phoenix has ended up covering three in a row, including a 114-113 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog back on Oct. 29.

Suns vs Grizzlies prediction: Suns -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

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The Utah Jazz wrap up a four-game road trip against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night. While Utah has lost all three games on the trip, it has covered two of the games, including its only game as a double-digit underdog. In fact, as an underdog of 7.5 or more points, the Jazz have covered four consecutive meetings, and they’re 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past six games, too. Utah has dropped seven in a row in this series, though, while Oklahoma City has covered four straight meetings, so be careful.

Oklahoma City is coming off an embarrassing and stunning 124-97 loss against the Charlotte Hornets on Monday night as a 15.5-point favorite, and not only has OKC failed to cover as a double-digit favorite in the past 2 games, it has lost both games outright. The Thunder has struggled since losing the NBA Cup Semifinals in Las Vegas on Dec. 13, going 6-6 straight up (SU) and 5-7 ATS in the 12-game span. Let’s back the Jazz catching almost 20 points, and keep fading the Thunder until they’re able to start to resemble the form we saw in their championship run, and earlier this season, too.

Jazz vs Thunder prediction: Jazz +18.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +16.5.

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Whenever Giannis Antetokounmpo takes on Jimmy Butler I’m here for it. We’ve seen some exciting match-ups between those two over the years, Wednesday brings us yet another installment of the heated rivalry. Both teams are in desperate need of wins, I’d argue the Bucks situation is slightly harder given that they’re out of the playoff race right now in 11th place. However, their recent win over the Kings has them filled with confidence, as it was their 4th in 5 outings. Milwaukee has now covered in 5 of 6 road games, they’ll need all the luck they can get against a team that’s beaten them 4 times in the last 6 meetings.

The atmosphere around the Warriors isn’t the best right now. From Draymond Green’s tantrums and ejections to Steve Kerr admitting to the media that they simply aren’t a contender right now. Add to that the fact that they’re actively trying to trade Jonathan Kuminga, but failing to find adequate suitors, it’s no wonder this team is only 19-18 SU and only 8th in the loaded West. Draymond is a game time decision here with an ankle issue, they sure could use his defensive ability against Antetokounmpo. Giannis is averaging a strong double-double of 25.8 points and 10.7 rebounds per game in the last 10 meetings.

The Bucks have had their shortcomings this season and they’re far from being elite at the moment, but they are the more in-form team here. They are one of the rare teams in the league that can match the Warriors’ three-point shooting ability, it makes way more sense to back Milwaukee as the road underdog here.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Golden State Warriors: Bucks +6.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.