NBA Picks

The Indiana Pacers have had the Chicago Bulls’ number this season, winning both matchups. Considering they will be playing at home, their chances of picking up a third win of the season should be great. The Bulls have had issues on the road, winning just 8 of 21 games. And while they will be taking on the team at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, the Pacers have been playing better than their record suggests, with a 5-5 record over their last 10 games. That includes recent wins over the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics.

The Pacers have been going small of late, with Pascal Siakam as their starting center. That would be a nightmare matchup for Nikola Vucevic defensively. That unit can get up and down the court, too, so it is no surprise that over the last 10 games they are eighth in opponents’ fast-break points per game. The Bulls over that stretch have scored 20.4 points per game on fast breaks, with only the Dallas Mavericks managing more in the NBA. If that side of their offense gets clipped back, the team could struggle to score overall. During that same stretch of games, the visitors are in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive rating; they could find themselves chasing throughout the game. The Pacers should have a great chance of picking up another win.

Bulls vs Pacers prediction: Indiana ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Sentiment and narrative. The market gobbles that stuff up. And tonight, this contest is all about those concepts. The prodigal son returns home, as LeBron James makes another trip back to where it all started. The place where he led the Cavs to their only NBA Championship. The market is backing LeBron and the Lakers because they are investing in the sentiment and narrative. He comes home, gets a win and moves on. As outright underdogs, it’s hard not to bite on King James and company. But that’s the point. The oddsmakers want action on Los Angeles because the storyline and namesake attract attention.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, do not have the same clout. Cleveland is one of the worst teams against the spread this season at 18-30. The Cavs have floundered on the big stage against the Knicks on Christmas Day in nationally-syndicated showcase games like this one, and their profile overall is exactly the type of side that the market would fade. The set-up is by design. Peel back the marketability of the Lakers — most notably LeBron — and combine that with Cleveland actually showing some profit, and suddenly the Cavaliers are bigger favorites. The Cavs have played a much tougher schedule than the Lakers in terms of strength, with opponents averaging a win percentage above .500, while LA’s sits 19th slightly lower than .500. Here is the other kicker: the Cavs expeted win percentage sits close to .600 at .587, while the Lakers have been punching above their weight with an EWL of .502 despite sitting 28-17. Where are we trying to go with this? Cleveland has played a tougher schedule and is legit. The Lakers have been catching bounces against cupcakes. The Cavs make the most of those ingredients tonight. Let’s lay the 3-pointer.

Lakers vs Cavaliers prediction: Cleveland -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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To say that it has been a rollercoaster of a season for the Hawks would be an understatement. Things have somewhat stabilized over the past week or so with 3 consecutive wins over the Grizzlies, Suns and Pacers. Granted, only one of those three teams is headed toward the postseason, but Atlanta will take any kind of winning streak at this point. Zaccharie Risacher and Kristaps Porzingis remain out ahead of Wednesday’s trip to Boston, with Atlanta hoping to even the regular-season series. The first meeting saw them give up 22 threes to these Celtics; that’s definitely the main thing they need to correct ahead of this game.

Boston continues to occupy the second spot in the East, but there is very little room for error with the likes of the Knicks, Raptors and even the Cavaliers lurking behind them. You can’t really criticize the Celtics too much even when they lose to teams like Chicago, as they did a couple of games back. This is one of the biggest overachievers this season in the NBA, playing extremely well without its best player, Jayson Tatum. The C’s have found the perfect blend of 3-point shooters and defenders, pairing them up with a closer in Jaylen Brown — who is having a career year as the #1 option on offense.

It will probably all come down to how well the Celtics execute their 3-point shots. Atlanta has done a solid job defending the perimeter during this 3-game winning streak, with opponents shooting only 31.7% from deep. Whether or not the strength of schedule had something to do with that remains to be seen, but this game in Boston will tell us a lot about Atlanta. I’m ready to give the Hawks the benefit of the doubt and back them as road underdogs to cover.

Hawks vs Celtics prediction: Atlanta +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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A players-only meeting appears to have fixed all the issues with which the New York Knicks were dealing. Since then they have won 3 straight games by an average of 25.5 points while holding opponents to just 91.6 points per 100 possessions, which is the best mark in the NBA. All of those numbers will be put to the test on Wednesday when the Knicks make the trip across the border and face the Toronto Raptors for the third time this season. They have owned the Raptors in both meetings this season, winning by 22 and 16 points back in early December. It’s a matchup that obviously suits Jalen Brunson and company, but the oddsmakers aren’t too sure about the Knicks winning. They are +1.5 underdogs going into the game.

Toronto’s 4-game winning streak also impacts that spread number. The Raptors return home following a heroic win at Oklahoma City, which ended a 4-game West Coast road trip on which they went 4-1. This will be their first home game in 10 days. After so much travel and 5 straight games on the road, it could take them a bit to get used to playing in front of the home fans again. Former Knick RJ Barrett has excelled with his play; he has been a key difference maker in more than a few games this season for Toronto, so it will be a priority for the Knicks to keep him in check on Wednesday.

The Knicks have been criticized a lot during their poor spell of play after winning the NBA Emirates Cup, but I feel like that’s all behind them and they are once again a team to be reckoned with in the Eastern Conference. Toronto may put up decent resistance at home, but this should be all Knicks as they go up 3-0 in the regular-season series.

Knicks vs Raptors prediction: New York ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Miami’s pace and ball movement is key here because that will throw the Magic out of rhythm. Orlando likes to lean back and keep it slow. It relies on defense and home-court advantage to get the job done, but neither will be at its disposal tonight. Miami likes to play free and loose in its own barn, and it has been quite successful in doing (15-7 in South Beach). Overall, the contrasting styles tend to produce more broken defensive coverages, creating scoring avenues that inflate totals even when pace isn’t elite. But Miami’s pace is elite. That’s the thing.

This isn’t a spot that needs to be eloquently broken down with a deep dive also required. We know that the Magic and Heat don’t like each other and this is a big rivalry, but that is another key factor. Both teams will approach this as a game to win and motivation will be at a premium. If anything, that can inadvertently or innately optimize offense, as well. That’s where the over finds another path. Even if one half flows slower due to Orlando imposing its will or Miami trying to grind it out, the other can explode due to the mechanics already mentioned in play. These dynamics makes clearing this low number quite attainable.

Magic vs Heat prediction: Over 228.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Call this how to spot an overreaction. Charlotte has quietly built momentum — multiple recent wins and offensive efficiency spikes — and the Hornets’ recent ball movement has improved their efficiency, too. Ask Philadelphia about that one on Monday — a game in which the Hornets were favored by and no one gave them a chance . Charlotte certainly has handled its business and now — despite a losing record on the road — it is laying a price. The question is should it be doing that, or is that hyperbole due to recent results? We are of the latter position.

It’s easy to pick on Memphis, as it has shown defensive inconsistencies — particularly because Memphis thrives in fast possessions. Indeed, if the Grizzlies struggle to gain any form of countenance in voluminous possessions, they can get buried quick. But do the Hornets have the wherewithal to withstand the surge in less-than-friendly confines? The Hornets are no lock here, and to see them favored is strictly on the bounds of what they have done recently but not what is on the court this evening. We dare not say this is a matter of the wrong side being favored because both teams overall play losing basketball. It is, however, safe to say that Charlotte should not be road chalk. Not yet. Grizzlies outright.

Hornets vs Grizzlies prediction: Memphis ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This Western Conference clash between the Minnesota Timberwolves (28-19) and Dallas Mavericks (19-27) looks poised for a slower, methodical pace that favors an under total. Minnesota enters averaging around 119.0 points per game, one of the better offensive marks in the league, but their recent games have seen fewer explosive scoring bursts than earlier in the season — the Wolves have also faced defensive wrinkles that slow possessions and reduce transition opportunities. Minnesota’s defense ranks around the middle of the league in points allowed (about 114.3 ppg) and its focus on half-court execution often results in longer possessions and lower possessions overall.

Dallas also profiles as a team that can contribute to a lower-scoring script. The Mavericks average roughly 114.3 points per game, and while they can score efficiently in bursts, their offense tends to stall against disciplined defenses that force contested looks and limit second-chance opportunities. Dallas’ field goal efficiency and shot creation have been inconsistent, and their recent outputs suggest they won’t blow the game open on their own. Meanwhile, head-to-head history between these 2 has included several games without runaway scoring — the last meeting saw Minnesota win 120-96. Combined with the fact that both teams rank middle of the pack defensively and prefer half-court sets, this matchup sets up for fewer total possessions.

Timberwolves vs Mavericks prediction: Under 228.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 226.5.

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The Golden State Warriors enter Salt Lake City as clear favorites, averaging roughly 116.0 points per game this season behind Stephen Curry’s shot making and a perimeter heavy offense designed to stretch defenses. Over their last 10 games, Golden State has pushed that number closer to 120.0 PPG, using pace and spacing to create scoring runs. However, injuries and rotation changes have led to some inconsistency, particularly when shots aren’t falling early. Even in wins, the Warriors haven’t always separated comfortably — often allowing opponents to hang around into the second half rather than pulling away completely.

Utah, meanwhile, continues to endure a difficult season at 15-32, but their offensive output has remained respectable at 118.7 points per game, even while their defense ranks last in the league by allowing over 127 PPG. The Jazz still push tempo and aren’t shy about trading buckets, which helps them stay competitive offensively. Playing at home also matters for a young Utah roster that tends to score more efficiently in familiar surroundings. While defensive lapses remain an issue, Utah’s willingness to play fast and generate offense can shorten margins against superior teams. Given Golden State’s occasional offensive variance and Utah’s ability to score enough to avoid blowouts, the points provide value in this spot.

Warriors vs Jazz prediction: Utah +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +8.5.

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This is a rivalry that demands attention and warrants buckets of popcorn. This matchup has all the ingredients of a game in which reputation takes a back seat to execution. Rivalry spots tend to compress outcomes — pace stabilizes, rotations tighten and teams lean into their most reliable actions rather than experimenting. That environment favors the side that plays the cleaner, more disciplined brand of basketball — and that’s where San Antonio has quietly built an edge.

The Spurs don’t rely on chaos to win possessions. Their offense flows through structure and spacing. On the other end, they defend with connectivity — switching responsibly, contesting without overhelping and finishing possessions with rebounds. That 2-way steadiness is exactly what travels in emotionally charged games like this one, in which wild momentum swings often hurt the more volatile team. The Spurs can also match the Rockets’ brand of physicality. Getting San Antonio at a plus number adds another layer of value, because this is a game that can go either way.

Spurs vs Rockets prediction: San Antonio ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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