NBA Picks

It will be a battle between 2 disappointing teams outside the playoff cut line in the Western Conference when the Sacramento Kings entertain the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday night. The value is on Sacramento as the underdog, so my Mavericks vs Kings prediction is for the home side to cover. When the Mavs improbably won the 2025 NBA Draft lottery, they had grandiose designs of a Big 3 featuring Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg. That is not how the story has played out, however — at least not yet. Irving (knee) has not yet played this season and Davis is questionable for Saturday with an adductor injury. Davis left his team’s Christmas Day loss to Golden State with an apparent groin injury, so the veteran big man is simply banged up in multiple ways these days. What’s new?!?!

Although there are not a whole lot of good things to say about the Kings, at least they are playing at home. Sactown is 4-10 at the Golden 1 Center compared to 3-13 on the road. That’s not saying much; but it’s something. More importantly, the Mavs are horrendous on the road (3-10) compared to a somewhat respectable 9-9 home record. Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray are sidelined, so this more of a fade of Dallas than it is in support of Sacramento. Give me the points, but proceed with caution until Davis’ status is confirmed.

Mavericks vs Kings prediction: Sacramento +3 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Despite the loss on Christmas Day there were some positives to take away for the Cavaliers who have looked a lot sharper offensively over their last 3 games. Darius Garland appears to be improving on a nightly basis, his 20 points and 10 assists indicate that he is close to being the same player he was before the injury happened. There’s still a lot of work in front of the Cavs though, especially for the bench unit which has largely underperformed this season. Evan Mobley could be inserted back in the starting line-up here as well, he too has had injury issues this season.

Unlike the Cavs, Houston won its Christmas Day game taking down the Lakers 119-96 on the road. Whether or not beating the struggling Lakers is a good measuring stick is a question in itself, but at this point the Rockets will take a win regardless who the opponent is. We’ve seen their form dip a little over the past couple of weeks with just 2 wins in 7 games prior to this latest win, this has seen them drop to 6th in the West standings. For Saturday’s game they might be without Alperen Sengun who is bothered by a calf issue which has plagued basically the entire NBA this season.

At 8-2 SU the Rockets are one of the more dominant home teams in the league, but if Sengun isn’t able to go that’ll leave a massive hole in the middle for the Cavs to exploit. In 2 games without him they are 1-1, which isn’t exactly a large enough sample size. However, the team they lost to is Dallas which is similarly constructed these Cavs with a few quality big men on the roster. Although it’s only late December there’s still 50 games left to be played, I think the sense of urgency to get a result here is much greater for the road team. I’ll take my chances with the Cavaliers.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Houston Rockets Predictions: Cavaliers +4.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable up to Cavaliers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers will travel Saturday night to take on the Miami Heat for the first time this season. The Pacers have a record this season of 6-25, and they are only 1-13 when playing on the road. The Pacers have lost their last seven games, including their last loss against the Boston Celtics 140-122. Andrew Nembhard led the team with 18 points and 8 assists. The Heat have a record 16-15, but are 10-5 on their home floor. The Heat have lost three of their last four games, but they are coming off a 126-111 win over the Atlanta Hawks. Normal Powell led the Heat in scoring with 25 points and Kel’el Ware controlled the glass with 13 rebounds in the absence of Bam Adebayo. Pelle Larsson returned from an ankle injury in this game, and he scored a career-high 21 points.

Both teams will be playing this game in the second half of a back-to-back. Neither team has played well leading into this game. Before yesterday’s win for the Heat, they had lost eight out of their last nine games. Both teams are also dealing with a plethora of injuries. Gametime decisions for Indiana include Isaiah Jackson, Ben Sheppard and Aaron Nesmith. The Heat are waiting on a decision if Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro will be ready to return from injury tonight. The Heat have been solid at home this season, but they have been shaky in that arena as of late. They have lost their last three games on their home floor. Two of those losses were against the Toronto Raptors and one was against the Sacramento Kings, but all three were by double digits. Pacers’ head coach, Rick Carlisle, is one win away from 1000 career wins. With neither team playing well, I’ll back the Pacers and the points tonight. 

Pacers +8.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Powered by a strong Jalen Brunson performance, Christmas Day saw the Knicks come back from 17 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers. It wasn’t just Brunson though, Jordan Clarkson also added 25 off the bench for a Knicks team that trailed for 74% of the game. The Knicks will be encouraged by the win as they head to Atlanta to face a Hawks team playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back. New York’s form on the road hasn’t been all that good this season at just 5-7 SU, but they have enjoyed success in recent meetings vs the Hawks winning 6 of 9 and also covering in 4 of 5 visits.

Atlanta’s biggest issue right now is their defense, or the lack of one. Trae Young’s return from injury has been a net negative so far, this team is only 2-7 SU in 9 games when he plays. Bettors have lost quite a bit of money on this team lately, the Hawks have failed to cover in 7 straight games and have dropped 5 in a row overall. They are one of the worst home teams in the NBA at just 5-10 SU, in those 15 games they covered the spread just 4 times. If something drastic doesn’t change in the next few games I’m afraid the Hawks will be forced to make some moves on the trade market.

Even though Josh Hart will be out here, you still have to go with the more consistent Knicks. Atlanta is just a mess right now, in their last game played on a 2nd night of a back-to-back scenario they got blown out by San Antonio 126-98. Back the Knicks.

New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks Predictions: Knicks -6 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.