NBA Picks

Atlanta’s loss to New York ended a 4-game win streak by the Hawks, but they’re hoping to get back on track as they visit the Cavaliers on Wednesday. This team has won 17 of 20 games, with a bit of luck they could have pushed the Knicks game into OT, but McCollum’s half court heave came too late. The Hawks have a one game edge on the Raptors for the 5th seed, that would actually match them up with the Cavs in a potential 1st Round series. In theory the Hawks could risk it and try falling down to 6th to face the Knicks, but that would be a risky proposition with the 76ers and Magic lurking right behind them.

For Cleveland things are pretty straight forward – the worst they can do is finish 4th, but with a bit of luck they could still overtake the Knicks in 3rd if they wanted to. With 8 wins in 10 games they are one of the more in-form teams in the Conference, their last win saw them put up an impressive 142 points on the Memphis Grizzlies for their 3rd straight triumph overall. Donovan Mitchell opted to sit that game due to an ankle issue, he is once again listed as questionable for tonight, but given the magnitude of the game I think he guts it out and plays. He’s put on a show in both meetings vs the Hawks this season, averaging 39.5 points on over 55% from the field and 50% from three. Together with Harden he has formed one of the more prolific offensive duos in the NBA this season.

These two teams will meet up one more time in Atlanta on Friday. The Cavs have been a well-oiled machine at home lately, winning 11 of 14 games. Playing there should give them the edge in my opinion. These next 2 meetings will tell us just how important is to have home court advantage in the postseason. I’ll side with the Cavs in this one.

Hawks vs Cavaliers prediction: Cavaliers -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Bucks season hit a new low point on Tuesday with a 96-90 loss to the Brooklyn Nets, as if it could get any worse than it already is. This team has been in shambles for quite some time now, with Giannis and the front office going back and forth regarding his situation. The on court product hasn’t been pretty either, although they’ve shown glimpses of decent play in wins over Dallas and Memphis lately, those are tanking teams and it’s really hard to take those games into account. They are massive underdogs against the Pistons on Wednesday, playing in a 2nd night of a back-to-back scenario. For what it’s worth, all 3 meetings between the two teams have been decided by less than the 19.5 point spread set for Wednesday’s game.

There is good news on the horizon for the Pistons ahead of this game with their star and leader Cade Cunningham getting upgraded from doubtful to questionable. It’s been almost 3 weeks since his collapsed lung injury, the Pistons would be thrilled to get him for these remaining 3 games of the regular season. If that happens it’ll be a priority for them to get their superstar back into the flow after a long layoff. Even without him Detroit has played extremely well, not showing any signs of slowing down. The good part about Wednesday’s game is that they’ve not yet secured the number one seed, so there is incentive on their end to win this game as well.

Blowing out a team is never easy, even if that team are the Milwaukee Bucks on a 2nd night of a back-to-back. However, if we take a large enough sample size of the last 15 games, we can notice Milwaukee’s Net Rating of -11.2 Points during that period which ranks 26th in the NBA. They’ve had a consistent three-point shot over the past 6 games, hitting 20 or more on 3 occasions, that’s the one thing they can base their optimism on going into this game. However, after watching them lose to the Nets I cannot justify backing them to cover against the best team in the East. Take Detroit.

Bucks vs Pistons prediction: Pistons -19.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This is a straightforward Under, it’s one where both teams naturally push the game in that direction. Minnesota and Orlando share a similar identity—physical, defensive-minded, and comfortable condensing games into half-court battles. When those styles collide, pace drops and possessions become more deliberate, which is exactly what you want when targeting an Under in this range. Orlando’s home environment amplifies this even further. The Magic lean heavily into their defensive identity on their own floor, turning games into grind-it-out affairs where clean looks are limited and scoring runs are difficult to sustain. That’s critical against a Minnesota team that already prefers this type of game script, especially on the road where they’re more inclined to control tempo and stay within structure.

Minnesota’s 124-point output against Indiana in route to a 20-point win (The total hit 228 which is key here) is misleading in this context. That game came against a far less disciplined defense. Orlando presents a completely different challenge with length, physicality, and resistance at every level. For this total to go Over, Minnesota would need to replicate that offensive efficiency, which is unlikely here. With both teams comfortable slowing things down and forcing tough possessions, this sets up as a controlled, physical game that struggles to reach this number

Timberwolves vs Magic prediction: Under 228 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Portland Trail Blazers face the San Antonio Spurs on in a Western Conference matchup between two teams firmly in the playoff picture. Portland enters at 40-39 and has been one of the more balanced teams in the conference, averaging 115.6 points per game while allowing 112.8. The Trail Blazers have leaned on efficient half court offense and strong guard play, but recent trends have pointed toward lower scoring games, with four of their last six finishing under the total. Portland has also slowed pace in these matchups, emphasizing shot selection and limiting transition opportunities.

San Antonio enters at 60-19 and has been one of the league’s most dominant teams all season, built on both offensive efficiency and defensive structure. The Spurs average 118.9 points per game while allowing 110.7, ranking among the top teams on both ends of the floor. However, they will be without Victor Wembanyama, removing a key interior presence who anchors both their scoring and rim protection. Without him, San Antonio’s defensive ceiling drops, particularly in limiting second chance opportunities, while offensively they rely more on perimeter creation and ball movement. Despite their strong season long numbers, recent games without Wembanyama have trended toward more controlled, methodical play. With Portland also favoring a slower pace and both teams adjusting to half court execution, this matchup projects as a more deliberate game. The combination of reduced interior dominance for San Antonio and Portland’s recent under trends sets up a game where scoring efficiency is limited relative to the number.

Trail Blazers vs Spurs prediction: Under 229.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 228.

Dallas is in a dead heat with the Memphis Grizzlies for that elusive 13th spot in the West standings. Both teams are doing their best to not move up the standings, in order to get a higher chance at cracking the top 4 in this year’s Draft order. The Mavs just lost to the Clippers by double-digits, putting up decent resistance through the first 3 quarters but then they simply let their foot off the gas pedal in the 4th and lost. Cooper Flagg had yet another solid outing with 25 points and 9 rebounds, I think we should keep an eye on him in Wednesday’s game as well as he tries to put up numbers to improve his case for winning the ROY honors.

Following last night’s loss to Houston, the Suns can no longer mathematically catch the 6th seeded Timberwolves. With 3 games remaining they still need a couple of wins to wrap up the 7th seed ahead of the Clippers, which gives them home court advantage in the play-in games. They’ve beaten the Mavs fairly convincingly both times they’ve played this season, putting up 123 and 120 points. With the likes of Booker, Brooks and Jalen Green all healthy, this is a really solid opportunity for them to work on their chemistry together. Especially for Brooks who is still finding his footing after coming back from a long layoff due to injury.

Playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back could be a bit of an issue for Phoenix as they have a losing record in this scenario. For the Mavs it makes very little sense to be competitive here, so expect Cooper to get numbers but ultimately the Suns come out on top. Back Phoenix.

Mavericks vs Suns prediction: Suns -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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At first glance, this number looks a bit soft even if Oklahoma City should control this game comfortably, the matchup says otherwise. The Clippers are one of the few teams capable of disrupting the Thunder’s rhythm, particularly at home where they play with more control and defensive intensity. The key here is pace. The Clippers slow games down, limit possessions, and force opponents into half-court execution. That’s where margins shrink and spreads become harder to cover. This turns the game into a possession-by-possession battle rather than an attempt at a track meet where the Thunder can capitalize on miscues and turnovers. In this kind of environment, efficiency matters more than volume, and the Clippers are disciplined enough to stay within range.

Home court is another layer. Los Angeles tends to elevate its play in this setting, particularly in games that require physicality and structure. They’ve already shown resilience this season by climbing back into relevance despite an atrocious start, and this is the type of spot where that identity shows. The Thunder can still win, but covering requires separation. The Clippers’ style is specifically built to prevent that, making the points valuable here in a spot with significant upset potential.

Thunder vs Clippers prediction: Clippers +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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