NBA Picks

The Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat will take the court for the final time prior to the postseason when they square off on Sunday evening in Miami. Atlanta clinched an outright spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs by beating Cleveland on Friday and it will be either the #5 or #6 seed. Miami is locked into a play-in spot in the East as either the #9 or #10 seed. Although it is by no means do-or-die for either team, there is certainly more at stake for the Heat. Atlanta will go up against either Cleveland or New York in round 1; there’s not much difference in those matchups. Miami will either play at home or on the road against Charlotte to begin the play-in tournament. Obviously head coach Erik Spoelstra’s crew would much rather play at home in that must-win situation; it is 25-15 in the 305 this season compared to 17-24 as visitors.

Tyler Herro, Norman Powell and Davion Mitchell are all listed as day-to-day for the Heat. However, there is no reason to think that any of them won’t play. All 3 sat out on Friday, but that was due it being the second leg of a back-to-back situation against a pathetic Washington squad. They had all played the night before against Toronto, so none has any kind of real injury. The Hawks may play all of their guys, but they have been going all out in recent weeks in an effort to complete their amazing run to an automatic playoff spot. It would be no surprise if some or all of Atlanta’s top players log an lower-than-normal number of minutes as the playoffs approach next week. Unless Herro and/or Powell doesn’t play, Miami certainly should not be such a sizable underdog.

Hawks vs Heat prediction: Miami +6.5 (-114) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

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It’s not often you see the Charlotte Hornets head into Madison Square Garden as 7.5 point favorites, but that’s exactly the case on the final day of the regular season as they try to wrap up the 9th seed. The Miami Heat can still leap over the Hornets in the standings, they are one game back but hold the tie breaker having won the regular season series. That should hopefully motivate the Hornets to do well here, their only visit to this building earlier this season was a 15-point loss back in December. Since then they’ve put together one of the more remarkable runs we’ve seen in recent years, they head into this game having won 14 of 17 road games.

For the Knicks everything has been settled in terms of Playoff positioning. They’re now locked into the 3rd seed behind the Pistons and Celtics, following Friday’s big win over Toronto. They are hoping the Raptors are the team they face in the opening round as they’ve won all 5 meetings against Canada’s only team. It’s quite possible that head coach Mike Brown will field a weakened line-up here, just to give the likes of Brunson, KAT and others some rest before the postseason begins. The only starter I expect to play here is Mikal Bridges as he doesn’t miss games, but even he should check out early and take the rest of the night off, as it’s been the case in recent years.

You have to like Charlotte’s chances against the Knicks reserves here. A win guarantees the Hornets home court advantage in the play-in game against the 10th seeded Miami Heat. For the way they’ve played the last couple of months, I think their fans deserve at least one playoff like atmosphere before the season is over and they’ll get exactly that after they beat the Knicks and secure the 9th seed here. Take Charlotte.

Charlotte Hornets vs New York Knicks Predictions: Hornets -7.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

So much for Victor Wembanyama’s rib injury. The alien had yet another superb performance on Saturday, dominating the lowly Dallas Mavericks with a 40 point and 13 rebound performance in just 26 minutes of play. His Spurs got the job done by 19 points, putting up 139 to win their 62nd game of the season. Having already wrapped up the 2nd seed, without a chance of moving up to 1st, there is a solid chance we see a slightly altered line-up in the final game of the season when the Spurs face off with the Nuggets. Even a team like San Antonio which has shown to care about the integrity of the game more than some other teams won’t risk injuries in a meaningless game to end the regular season.

For Denver this game is anything but meaningless as they are still not safe in the 3rd seed. The Lakers are exactly one game behind them, but they hold the tie-breaker having won the regular season series 2-1. LA plays the Jazz on the final day of the season, I think it’s safe to say they are coming out of that game with a win regardless who they put out there to play. That means the Nuggets will be motivated to get a result on Sunday, it makes sense for them to stay 3rd and play a banged-up Timberwolves team in the 1st round, a team against whom they have some unfinished business with.

The Nuggets have won 11 games in a row, it makes way more sense to back them to get the win here as this game actually means something to them. These two teams have played each other 3 times this season and all 3 games were high scoring ones. That could be the case on Sunday as well, but I’m more in favor of backing Denver to secure the 3rd seed and to also go up over their pre-season win total.

San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets Predictions: Nuggets +1.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.