NBA Picks

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The Orlando Magic have won 4 games in a row as they prepare to host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night. Cleveland is hot, as well, with 3 victories in its last 4 contests. With both teams playing great basketball and fighting for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference, I’m expecting a playoff-like atmosphere that is high on intensity. That would also mean a commitment on the defensive end of the floor. As such, my Cavaliers vs Magic prediction is Under 226.5. A low-scoring affair would be nothing new for these 2 conference rivals. They have faced each other on 2 previous occasions this season and Cleveland has won by scores of 119-105 and 114-98. That’s 224 points and 212 points for those counting.

Orlando has continued to put the clamps down on defense. In fact, it has held its last 2 opponents to 92 and 91 points. The Magic have played 10 straight games without allowing more than 114 points. Both teams are missing some offense, too. The Cavaliers are without Jarrett Allen (15.3 ppg) due to a knee injury, while Anthony Black (also 15.3 ppg) is on the shelf for the Magic because of an abdominal strain. All things considered, let’s roll with the under.

Cavaliers vs Magic prediction: Under 226.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 225.

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Back-to-back losses to the two LA teams and 3 in their last 4 games have seen the Knicks lead in the 3rd place of the Eastern Conference get trimmed to just half a game. That fact alone should serve as a wake-up call as they try to sort themselves out on this long West coast road trip which hasn’t gone to plan so far. If there was a silver lining we could take from those two defeats to the Lakers and Clippers it would be the play of Karl-Anthony Towns who excelled on the offensive front. Wednesday is another opportunity for him to continue playing well, as the Knicks take on the worst defense in the NBA. The oddsmakers have them as 12.5 point favorites, which makes me wonder is that a tad too big for a team that’s gone just 1-6 ATS in their last 6 visits to Delta Center.

Meanwhile, the Jazz have shown signs of life winning 2 of their last 3 games, which sounds solid on paper. But, when you see their two opponents in those wins were the Warriors and Wizards, it’s hard to take those wins seriously. The game against New York will be a much tougher test – Utah is only 2-9 SU in 11 home games and is currently on a 5-game losing streak vs Atlantic Division opponents. The list of players missing through injury is too long for us to get into, it’s hard to really pinpoint just one player that the Knicks have to keep an eye on here defensively. Utah saw a total of 8 players score in double-figures in their 3-point win over Golden State the other day.

The Knicks have been very disappointing in the last week or so, I’m hoping they get their act together here. They dominated the Jazz by 34 points in the first meeting, starting it with a 23-0 run, with the lead going up to as many as 41 points. It’s hard to expect something similar happening on Wednesday with the Jazz playing at home, but the Knicks should handle their business here.

 Knicks vs Jazz prediction: Knicks -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This price is driven by the contrast in perception as much as the actual matchup. Charlotte has climbed back to .500, is 10th in the East, and just improved to 11-1 in its last 12 road games with Tuesday’s comeback win in Portland. Sacramento, meanwhile, is 16-50, dead last in the West, and priced like a team the market no longer wants any part of. That combination is exactly how you get a road favorite laying this kind of lumber.

The problem is that a spread this big starts to become less about who’s better and more about whether the favorite can sustain margin. Charlotte absolutely deserves respect for its recent form, but this is still a team laying a premium because the market has fully bought the resurgence story. Sacramento’s stock is the opposite: it is so damaged that the Kings only become interesting once the number gets friendly enough to even consider backing them. But what is not being factored in is Sacramento also just rallied from 20 down to beat Indiana, to achieve its first winning streak since January. So while the season-long stock is awful, this is not a team arriving completely lifeless. Charlotte can be the right side in a vacuum and still be the wrong side at this price. The Hornets’ rise and the Kings’ collapse have combined to stretch the line to the point where taking Sacramento and the points is the sharper position, especially considering that the Kings still have a pulse.

Hornets vs Kings prediction: Kings +12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +12.

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The number 3 seed is seemingly on the line this Wednesday as the Rockets head to Denver for a date with Nikola Jokic and his Nuggets. It’s a damn shame Houston is playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back here, that could hinder them a bit against a tough opponent like Denver. But, after winning the most recent meeting between the two sides by 14 points and keeping the other two games really close, I don’t think the Rockets will be discouraged entering this game. They are a solid 6-3 SU in 9 games overall, while on the road they’ve won 7 of their last 10.

Jokic and co. have had their fair share of issues lately, they’ve won just 4 of their last 10 games which has raised a lot of questions over their contender status. And it’s not like this team is bad or anything, it’s their inability to stay healthy that’s hindered them for the most part this season. Aaron Gordon’s comeback is a much needed injection of quality on both ends, he just had a solid game vs the Thunder scoring 23 points and collecting 10 rebounds. He has appeared in only 25 games this season, it might take the Nuggets a while to re-integrate him into their schemes.

And that’s where the Rockets could have the edge in Wednesday’s game. Denver’s defense has been suspect all season long – in just their last 3 games we’ve seen opponents shoot almost 43% from downtown. Not a good sign against a team like the Rockets who rank 7th in three-point percentage hit season. Despite them playing their 2nd game in two nights, I’ll side with the Rockets and the extra points here.

Rockets vs Nuggets prediction: Rockets +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.