NBA Picks

The Houston Rockets host the New Orleans Pelicans in a Western Conference matchup that contrasts Houston’s defensive consistency with New Orleans’ volatility. The Rockets have been strong this season, anchored by a top 10 defensive rating and a +4.9 net rating, allowing them to control games through rebounding and physicality. Kevin Durant leads the offense with 24.8+ points per game, while Alperen Sengun adds 9.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists, giving Houston a versatile offensive structure. They also lead the league in offensive rebounding percentage, consistently generating second chance opportunities that swing possessions in their favor.

The New Orleans Pelicans bring a more inconsistent profile, averaging 115.5 points per game but allowing 120.0, one of the weaker defensive marks in the league. Zion Williamson leads the way with 21.7 points per game, supported by Trey Murphy III, but defensive struggles continue to limit their ceiling. Recent meetings have been competitive, including a 119-110 Houston win, a 133-128 Pelicans win, and a 107-105 Rockets victory, all showing relatively tight margins. While Houston has advantages in defense and rebounding, New Orleans has enough offensive firepower to stay within range, and the trend of close games between these teams suggests another competitive contest.

Rockets vs Pelicans Prediction: Pelicans +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5

On the surface, Oklahoma City looks like the superior team, but this is a far more difficult matchup for them than the market suggests. The Thunder thrive on chaos: forcing turnovers, getting out in transition, and generating easy offense off defensive pressure. That’s where New York quietly neutralizes them. The Knicks are one of the better ball-control teams in the league. They don’t beat themselves, ranking near the top in limiting turnovers relative to OKC’s pressure-heavy defense. That matters because Oklahoma City’s biggest edge is forcing mistakes and that gets blunted here. If they’re forced into half-court offense consistently, the dynamic shifts.

New York also has a clear advantage on the glass. They rank significantly higher in offensive rebounding and overall rebounding volume, creating second-chance opportunities while limiting OKC to one shot. That’s a critical equalizer against a team with elite efficiency. We’ve already seen how thin the margin is when OKC edged New York 103-100 in a grind-it-out game that required overtime. In this kind of environment, the underdog has real upset pop. I am taking the plunge – Knicks outright.

Knicks vs Thunder prediction: New York Knicks ML (+300) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number or better.

The Golden State Warriors travel to face the Denver Nuggets in a matchup that highlights a gap in efficiency and consistency. Golden State enters 36-38 and is still fighting for positioning but has struggled defensively, particularly in this matchup, allowing a 124.2 defensive rating against Denver this season. Offensively, the Warriors remain capable when their ball movement is clicking and rank among the better teams in assist percentage, but inconsistency and defensive lapses have limited their ability to sustain success against top tier opponents.

The Denver Nuggets continue to profile as one of the league’s most efficient offenses, ranking 1st in offensive rating at 121.4 while averaging 120.3 points per game. Led by Nikola Jokic, they also lead the league in effective field goal percentage, consistently generating high quality looks. While their defense is more middle of the pack, their offensive execution separates them. A recent 128-117 Warriors win shows some volatility, but Denver’s underlying efficiency metrics and matchup advantage point toward their ability to create separation, especially at home.

Warriors vs Nuggets Prediction: Nuggets -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

After winning the game in Indiana, where we saw one of the craziest endings ever to an NBA regular season game, the Clippers have now won 4 games in a row and are in prime position to make it 5 straight when they visit the lowly Bucks on Sunday. LA is at full strength for the most part, and they smoked the Bucks 129-96 in the first meeting of the season about a week ago in LA. They forced 22 turnovers in that win, with Kawhi Leonard going off for 28 points in 25 mins played. That’ll be the recipe for success in Sunday’s game as well, Milwaukee is averaging 19.7 turnovers per game in their last 3 outings.

Yesterday’s defeat to the Spurs means that the Bucks have mathematically been eliminated from making the play-in tournament and now the seasons is pretty much over. The last 3 losses have been by 32, 31 and 33 points, and considering the line-up head coach Doc Rivers is putting out there, it’s not at all surprising. Playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back won’t do the Bucks any favors either here; there could be some tired legs out there on Sunday vs the Clippers. Recent games against Western Conference opponents tell us they’ve covered just once in 6 outings, while in games played on a Sunday this team is only 1-5 ATS.

All the signs are pointing to a convincing win for LA here, and after watching that Spurs vs Bucks game yesterday, I cannot justify backing the Bucks to cover here — even if the spread is at almost 15 points. Leonard and co. have won 6 straight vs East teams; hopefully they can guard against complacency here and get the job done vs a shorthanded Bucks side.

Clippers vs Bucks Predictions: LA Clippers -14 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Miami’s baseball series against the Cavaliers proved what we already know – it is still not out of the gutter in terms of its poor play on the defensive end. Yes, the Heat won the first of those 2 games against the Cavs, but that result was more due to the Cavs failing to make all the open looks rather than the Heat playing well. Sunday sees the Heat trying to make amends in Indiana, taking on a struggling Pacers team — but one that is capable of putting up a bunch of points in no time. The regular-season series is tied at 1-1. Indy actually won the latest meeting between the 2 sides back in mid-January, so the Heat will need to stay focused to get a result. Norman Powell has been ruled out with an illness; for what it’s worth, they are 11-8 SU in games without him.

Indiana has actually played solid basketball over the last 3 games despite losing twice. The Pacers have covered the spread in all 3 of them, which has increased their streak to 5 games in a row covering the spread. They are still on an 11-game losing streak in home games and time is running out if they want to gift their home fans with another win before the season is over. They have only 3 more games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse after this one — against Minnesota, Philadelphia and Detroit. I can see them winning at least one of those remaining 4 games, but the question is which one? A bunch of players are once again on the injury report ahead of Sunday’s game, so it’s unclear which unit will appear in the starting lineup.

The pressure is on Miami to deliver. The Heat’s recent struggles have caused them to fall to ninth in the standings, but they can still leap over the Magic — who are just a half game ahead. No Norman Powell might actually be a good thing for Miami; we have seen the offense click slightly better when he isn’t out there, which frees up some space for players like Tyler Herro to operate around the perimeter. The offensive rating is actually 2 points better per 100 possessions without Powell. I’ll give the Heat the benefit of the doubt here and back them to cover.

Heat vs Pacers prediction: Miami -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The case for the under starts with the matchup. Toronto’s season profile is more defense-first than the market sometimes gives credit for. The Raptors are averaging 113.9 points per game, but allowing just 112.4, which ranks in the top 10 in points allowed; Orlando is scoring 115.7 ppg and allowing 114.8 ppg. These are teams that live in the margins and love a good old rock fight.

The matchup itself can bog down, and evidence supports this hypothesis. One meeting this season already in the Great White North finished 107-106. A higher-scoring 130-120 Orlando win in January required massive fourth-quarter offensive spike that was atypical for both combatants. Stylistically overall, neither side is built to consistently generate easy offense in this matchup. Orlando can stagnate in the half court. Toronto, meanwhile, has dealt with inconsistency in shot creation and often relies on grinding out possessions rather than flowing offensively. This creates a game environment where scoring runs are difficult to sustain. With both teams leaning on defense-first identities and capable of dragging pace down, this sets up as a physical, half-court game where every bucket is earned which are ideal conditions for the under.

Magic vs Raptors prediction: Under (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to number.

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Back-to-back wins over the Thunder and Hawks must have felt really good for the Celtics, who are looking to stay in control of the #2 seed in the East. Sunday sees them travel to Charlotte for a date with the Hornets, as they look to avenge a 29-point loss to them from earlier this month. Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown and Neemias Queta are all on the injury report though, so we’re not certain which version of the Celtics shows up here. The fact that the Knicks are just 1.5 games back in the #3 seed raises the sense of urgency for the Cs, so I think most of those players will gut it out and try to play here.

Charlotte suffered an unexpected loss vs Philadelphia last night, which ended a 5-game win streak. They were caught a bit by surprise with the return of Tyrese Maxey, and we once again got proof that the Sixers will be a tough out for whoever gets them in the postseason if their big 3 is healthy. So far this season playing with no rest hasn’t been an issue for these young Hornets, they are 10-4 SU in 14 such games. However, it’s been a struggle in recent home games against Boston with just 1 win in 8 meetings at Spectrum Center.

I’m hoping all these injuries or the Celtics players are minor and that their team shows up in this game. If that’s the case, I think they’ll be very motivated to get one back over the Hornets who thrashed them the last time they played each other. Knowing the mentality of head coach Mazzulla and his players, that loss has been stuck in their heads ever since it happened. I’ll back the Celtics to get revenge here.

Celtics vs Hornets Predictions: Boston Celtics -1 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Sacramento Kings will travel to take on the Brooklyn Nets Sunday night in the battle of the tanks. Both teams may be trying to lose this game as the season winds down to an end, and both the Kings and the Nets sit below 20 wins. The Kings have a couple more wins overall, but Sacramento holds the worst road record in the NBA of 6-31. The Kings have lost five of their last six games. The Nets are 9-26 on their home floor this season, but they are currently on a 10-game losing streak. They will be returning home from a 4-game road trip for this one. As you would expect from 2 tanking teams, the injury list is long and heavy. The Kings will be without Russell Westbrook, Keegan Murray, Drew Eubanks, De’Andre Hunter, Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine. DeMar DeRozan is still available for this game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the 36-year-old is a late add to the injury list after the Kings played in Atlanta last night. The Nets will be without Danny Wolf, Michael Porter Jr, Egor Demin and Day’Ron Sharpe. They will still have Noah Clowney and Nic Claxton available and playing in this game.

Now, I could pretend to find some statistics that supports a side in this one — but, realistically, there is no number that can provide an edge in a game like this. These are 2 teams that are trying to lose at this time, and the question really falls under which team will do a better job tanking this matchup. With the Kings traveling in from Atlanta in the second half of a back-to-back, I think the Kings have a better chance of falling short in this matchup. The Nets are returning home from a road trip, and motivation may be there to provide the hometown crowd with a good effort. Overall, I’ll take the Nets on their home floor as slight underdogs.

Kings vs Nets prediction: Brooklyn ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Getting blown out on a nightly basis has almost become normal for the Washington Wizards this season. The losing streak was briefly paused by a 133-110 win over the Jazz earlier in the week, but 2 days ago, we saw them get destroyed by the Warriors 131-126. The road trip continues in Portland on Sunday, and once again, the Wizards are heavy underdogs with the spread being around 16 points. Can they at least make things interesting against the Trail Blazers? The first meeting was decided by just 4 points back in late January. However, over the past 18 games, the Wizards have recorded just 1 win, plus they’re just 4-10 SU/ATS in 14 meetings with Portland.

Portland’s week started off in dominant fashion with back-to-back blowout wins over Brooklyn and Milwaukee, but they were brought back to Earth by the Dallas Mavericks on Friday, losing by 7 points at home. That wasn’t a result they needed at this point in time, as they try to catch up with the Clippers in the 8th seed. They cannot afford to fool around against another tanking team on Sunday. I think most of their fans would be happy even if they finished 9th, which would guarantee them home court advantage in a one-off game against the Warriors in the play-in tournament. The play of Deni Avdija has been encouraging; he’s made great strides following recovery from the back injury that has limited him all season, averaging 21.5 points per game this month.

The Trail Blazers have a habit of pouncing on the tanking teams lately, with the loss to Dallas being the only blemish on their run in the 2nd half of March. That loss does make me wonder do they have enough at their disposal to score a ton of points against the Wizards. In order to beat Washington, you have to outscore them at their crazy-fast pace. Jerami Grant and Shaedon Sharpe being out might present an issue or two on offense here, so I’ll give the Wizards plus the massive spread a shot here.

Wizards vs Trail Blazers Predictions: Washington Wizards +16 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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