NBA Picks

This number looks inflated until you realize that these are a couple of sides heading in completely opposite directions. Indiana’s profile is the kind that collapses when they fall behind. The Pacers don’t have the defensive leverage to grind the pace down, and once the game gets loose, they’re stuck trading possessions they can’t consistently win. Charlotte meanwhile can play with pace or slow it down. The Hornets are also solid on both ends of the court.

The other key is psychology: huge spreads cash when the favorite doesn’t relax. Charlotte’s record isn’t elite, but they play with urgency. The Hornets won’t take Indiana lightly, nor will they call off the dogs either. This is a team that is hungry to level up and that has been shown in how they have attacked 2026 altogether. If the Hornets get separation, they will keep pressing rather than protect the lead. Yes, laying a big number is required, but it’s appropriate. Charlotte has enough efficiency, pace, defensive prowess, and offensive pop to punish Indiana.

Hornets vs Pacers prediction: Hornets -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.

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This is not about which team looks better or which side is preferred. It’s about taking advantage of the betting situation. Philly is favored, but the market is saying this is essentially a coin flip, and handing out a plus-return on a team that excels in these kinds of environments.

The elevated total 241 is key. Higher totals increase variance. In higher-variance environments, grabbing plus money on a near-pick’em is often the sharper math than laying juice on the favorite. This is not about saying Miami is better even, it’s more about the Heat having a real path to victory and the equity being found in how they are priced. Academically, in a 50/50 proposition like this one, grabbing the plus-money price is most profitable long-term. Miami also has an edge in games like these because they don’t require a clean offensive night to stay connected. They can win on free throws, playing with pace, or forcing the opponent to execute efficiently. Philadelphia meanwhile, has shown that it can struggle to remain efficient for long stretches. Roll with the Heat on Thursday.

Heat vs 76ers prediction: Heat ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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At 3-1 since the All-Star break the Rockets are one of the better teams, at least on paper. A couple of double-digit wins over Utah and Sacramento masked some of the issues they have currently, those were exposed by the Knicks in the 108-106 loss at MSG some five days ago. In that game KD and co. let an 18-point lead slip away, this team’s biggest issue is not having a reliable 2nd option at the point guard position. As soon as Amen Thompson goes out the line-up they struggle with playmaking, lacking players who can handle the ball consistently. Thursday sees the Rockets play in Orlando on a 2nd night of a back-to-back, with the injury list including Finney-Smith, Amen Thompson, Jae’Sean Tate, Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet.

Just like the Rockets, the Magic are also 3-1 SU after the break, but unlike Houston they left a far better impression with back-to-back tight wins over the Clippers and Lakers on the road. This will be their first home game in about 2 weeks, Orlando is one of the more reliable home teams in the league at 17-9 SU. They’ve also covered the spread in 5 of 6 games overall, there is a chance Jalen Suggs returns to the line-up which would be a massive boost to their defensive capacities. We should also not underestimate the revenge factor here – these two teams met back in mid-November and the Rockets came out on top in OT 117-113 at home.

Houston is playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back here, they’re just 3-5 SU in this scenario this season. Orlando will be happy to play in front of the home fans after such a long time, this is a great opportunity to get them as slight home underdogs vs a team that just played last night. The Magic have covered in 4 of 5 games vs West opponents, I’ll back them to win outright in this one.

Rockets vs Magic prediction: Magic ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The San Antonio Spurs have quietly put together one of their best months of the season, riding an offensive rhythm and defensive discipline that has kept them competitive and motivated. San Antonio’s pace has nudged up, and they’re averaging over 115 points per game over their recent stretch while shooting efficiently from both mid range and beyond the arc. Their defense has also shown signs of life, forcing turnovers and limiting easy transition opportunities — a key factor against a Nets team that thrives on pace. With playoff positioning still in reach, the Spurs come in with momentum and confidence, looking to keep their perfect month hopes alive against a struggling opponent.

Conversely, taking the Brooklyn Nets against the spread has been a disaster, as they haven’t covered in five straight games and have been particularly bad as underdogs of +8 or more, often losing by double digits despite respectable scoring nights from their top scorers. Brooklyn’s offense has been streaky, and without consistent defensive stops, they struggle to hang with teams that can impose their style of play. While the Nets have talent, their inability to close games and cover spreads makes backing them risky — especially against an ascendant Spurs squad with cohesion and offensive balance. In a game where San Antonio should dictate tempo and exploit mismatches, the larger number with the Spurs becomes attractive.

Spurs vs Nets Prediction: Spurs -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5

The Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks will be playing the second leg of a 2-game series in Atlanta when these 2 Southeast Division rivals meet again on Thursday. To say that the first one did not go well for Washington would be a gross understatement. Don’t be fooled by the 21-point margin on Tuesday — the Hawks’ 119-98 victory wasn’t even that close. They led by 36 points going into the fourth quarter before calling off the dogs. Jonathan Kuminga made his Atlanta debut after being acquired from Golden State prior to the trade deadline. Kuminga’s contributions were immediate in the form of 27 points on 9-for-12 shooting (3-for-4 from downtown) to go along with 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals. There is no reason to think that the rematch will be any different, so my Wizards vs Hawks prediction is for the home side to win and cover.

After all, the Wizards want to lose games. They are 16-41 and in the mix for the worst record in basketball as they bid for the #1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. The Hawks, on the other hand, need all the wins they can get. They are 2 games inside the Eastern Conference play-in tournament cut line and 4 games out of an automatic top-6 playoff spot. Jalen Johnson (hip) is questionable for the Hawks, but his status shouldn’t matter. They completely dominated the Wizards on Tuesday even though Johnson logged just 6 minutes. It would mean more time for Kuminga if Johnson can’t take the floor. The Wizards are without Anthony Davis, Trae Young and Alex Sarr. Kyshawn George and Tristan Vuckcevic are questionable.

Wizards vs Hawks prediction: Atlanta -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Portland hasn’t had the best of times after the restart, winning just 1 of their 3 games. The only win came against the shorthanded Suns in a low scoring affair on the road. On Thursday the Trail Blazers are in Chicago, facing a team that’s lost 10 games in a row. However, the Bulls did win the first meeting of the season between the two sides back in mid-November 122-121 in Portland. In fact, Portland has recorded just 1 win in 8 meetings vs this team, while against East opponents in general they’re just 1-5 straight up in 6 such games. Deni Avdija remains sidelined with his back issue, so interim head coach Tiago Splitter will have to dig deep into his bench to find points here.

I’m struggling to find any positives to say about the Chicago Bulls at this time. They’ve lost all hope of making it into the play-in tournament, switching directions completely before the trade deadline and opting to tank the rest of the season. With 4 losses after the break things are going according to plan, even the return of Josh Giddey hasn’t motivated this unit to start playing better. With back-to-back home games of just 99 points scored vs New York and Charlotte, it’s quite evident that they simply don’t have the capacity to put up a large volume of points. But who knows, maybe that changes against the 20th ranked defense of the Blazers which allows 113.5 points per 100 possessions this season?

Even though Portland is the favorite here, something tells me the Bulls won’t be without a chance. Yes, they’ve looked bad lately, but all streaks have to come to an end at some point. As we saw with the Sacramento Kings the other day, the Bulls cannot keep losing forever. With much tougher opponents coming their way in the days and weeks ahead, this might be their best opportunity to put an end to this losing streak. I’ll take the Bulls in this one.

Trail Blazers vs Bulls prediction: Bulls +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Just one game after ending their long losing streak, the Sacramento Kings are back in to loss column. They didn’t stand much of a chance against the Houston Rockets, losing by 31 points in the end. Russell Westbrook was the only bright spot with 22 points and 5 rebounds, playing the Dallas Mavericks will be a much easier task for Russ and co. to get a rare win. In 31 road games the Kings have celebrated only 4 times, however against the Mavs they have a positive run of 4 wins in 6 meetings. From a bettors’ perspective backing the Kings to cover has yielded a profit 8 times in 12 meetings, including 5 of the last 6 in Dallas.

Back-to-back road wins over Indiana and Brooklyn would normally be considered a good thing, but not for the Mavericks. The Mavs are one of the tanking teams in the Western Conference, but from time to time they’ll run into opponents who are in an even worse state than them and it’ll result in wins. This team is currently without several key players, including Cooper Flagg who is still out with a foot problem. At home they’ve lost 5 games in a row, while against Western Conference opponents they’re 0-8 SU in 8 such games. This team’s biggest weakness lies in the painted area – they rank 30th in opponent points inside the paint, allowing 55.5 per game.

These two have split the regular season series so far, Thursday’s game will be the 3rd and final meeting. Neither side is motivated to win, with so many players out injury it could be anyone’s game. That being said, I feel like the Kings should be able to expose the interior issues the Mavs have on defense here. Slashers like Westbrook and DeRozan should have an easy time finding their way to the basket. I’ll give the Kings the benefit of the doubt and back them to cover.

Kings vs Mavericks prediction: Kings +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New Orleans Pelicans enter this matchup with momentum after a strong stretch offensively, averaging nearly 117 points per game over their last 10 while shooting close to 48% from the field. Zion Williamson continues to anchor the attack with efficient scoring in the paint, while Trey Murphy provides perimeter spacing and secondary creation. New Orleans has done a better job generating turnovers and pushing tempo, and their ability to score at multiple levels presents problems for a Utah defense that has struggled to string together stops. Even with some inconsistency on the road, the Pelicans’ offensive balance gives them a clear edge in this matchup.

The Utah Jazz, meanwhile, remain in a rebuilding phase and have dropped seven of their last 10 games. They’re allowing over 116 points per game during that stretch, and interior defensive issues have been magnified by frontcourt depth concerns. While Utah can score — averaging around 114 points per game — defensive lapses and rebounding struggles make it difficult to close games against disciplined opponents. If New Orleans controls the paint and limits second chance opportunities, they should be able to dictate pace and create separation late.

Pelicans vs Jazz Prediction: Pelicans -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5

Minnesota may carry the more attractive record, but their night-to-night performance has been uneven, and that volatility makes laying points on the road a risky proposition, especially against a disciplined home team like Los Angeles. The Clippers have built their identity around game control: slowing tempo, valuing possessions, and forcing opponents to execute in the half court. That style isn’t situational, it’s how they’ve played all season.

If Los Angeles dictates pace, separation becomes difficult for the Timberwolves. That’s where the matchup turns. A grind-heavy script limits runs and keeps the margin tight deep into the fourth quarter. And if this game reaches the final minutes within one or two possessions, home comfort and late-game composure become decisive factors. This also isn’t the same Clippers team from earlier in the season. Their midseason acquisitions and improved cohesion have fueled a quiet resurgence, and their current form suggests a group trending toward postseason relevance. Los Angeles isn’t just primed to cover, the Clippers are positioned to win outright.

Timberwolves vs Clippers prediction: Clippers ML (+175) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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