NBA Picks

It will be a potential NBA Finals preview when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday afternoon. Right now, however, Oklahoma City does not resemble the championship team from last year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal) is out for at least another week and Jalen Williams (hamstring) is not particularly close to returning. The Thunder are still in decent enough form with 3 wins in their last 4 games, but they are also just 6-6 in their last 12. Given OKC’s current malaise and the extremely tough competition level on store for Sunday, my Cavaliers vs Thunder pick is for the visitors to win and cover.

Cleveland is in spectacular form at the moment. Donovan Mitchell and company are 12-1 in their last 13 games and they are undefeated in 5 outings since acquiring James Harden prior to the trade deadline. Harden is shooting 49.1 percent from the floor, 48.1 percent from deep and 89.3 percent from the free-throw line with his new team. Evan Mobley was rested for Friday’s victory over Charlotte, so the big man will be in good shape for this much more important showdown against the defending NBA champs. Meanwhile, Mitchell has scored 30 points or more in 4 of the last 5 contests. The Cavs simply have a ton of weapons — especially with Harden now on board. When healthy, Oklahoma City has as many if not even more. For the time being, though, that is not the case. Cleveland is solid on the road (17-10 SU overall, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 on the road), so it won’t be afraid of going into OKC.

Cavaliers vs Thunder prediction: Cleveland -1 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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This is a game where defense will rule. That means every possession counts. The oddsmakers are also signalling that this is contest that can go either way with a soft point spread. Academically, the smart move is to take the plus money in what is a 50/50 proposition. The team that offers that price is the Magic. Now, we have to make our case.

Phoenix leans into defense and physicality. That’s their blueprint. But Orlando can match that physicality and defensive posture in more ways than one. The Magic aren’t going to play an away spot against a team that plays with pace or relies on their offense to outscore teams where Orlando will struggle to keep up. No, this is a game that will be played in the half-court where the Magic can also flex their defensive muscles. Yes, Phoenix has more offensive weapons on paper. But if that were really a factor here, the Suns would be laying a bigger number. Add in that they have been one of the most profitable teams in the NBA this season and there is a possibility if they weren’t such a cash cow, they would be an underdog here. We’re taking advantage of the value offered with the visitors in this one.

Magic vs Suns prediction: Magic +105 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable to +100.

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Going on a 3-game losing streak and winning just once in 5 games couldn’t come at a worse time for the Philadelphia 76ers who are desperate to turn things around. Teams like the Magic and Heat are lurking right behind them in the East standings, The Sixers are holding on to that 6th seed for dear life. They simply cannot afford to lose games like the one they have on Saturday, as they head into New Orleans for a date with the Pelicans who will be without their leading scorer Trey Murphy III. Joel Embiid has already been ruled out with a lower leg injury and in a way that’s not necessarily a bad thing. At least the Sixers know they cannot rely on their big man, so they can now come up with a gameplan structured around the likes of Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe to carry them.

For the Pelicans not having their leading scorer is a massive handicap, when he’s out they’re winless in 5 games and with a point differential of -61 points. They do have a positive head-to-head record against Philadelphia, however most of the wins they got came in previous years when the health situation was a lot better than it is right now. Philly took the first meeting 124-114 some 3 weeks ago, the Pels had an unexpected hero in that game in Saddiq Bey who carried them with 34 points. The question is can he produce a similar performance on Saturday and can the Pelicans be competitive here?

My answer for both of those questions is – very unlikely. Philadelphia’s sense of urgency to win is far greater here, they’re 6-2 SU in 8 games vs Western Conference opponents. New Orleans has just 3 wins in 12 home games and they’ve failed to cover in 7 consecutive games vs East opponents. I’ll give the Sixers the benefit of the doubt, even if Embiid isn’t playing.

Philadelphia 76ers vs New Orleans Pelicans Predictions: 76ers -4.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Pistons enter this matchup playing some of their best basketball of the season, powered by an explosive offense and the continued rise of Cade Cunningham. Cunningham is averaging roughly 25+ points and nearly 10 assists per game, orchestrating an offense that thrives in transition and ranks among the league leaders in efficiency and pace. Detroit has been dangerous pushing tempo, attacking the paint, and spacing the floor with shooters who can capitalize on drive and kick opportunities. Their ability to generate second chance points and turn defensive rebounds into quick offense has consistently forced opponents into high possession games. When Detroit dictates pace, totals tend to climb quickly.

The Chicago Bulls have shown flashes offensively but remain inconsistent defensively, particularly against dynamic backcourts. The Bulls changed a lot of pieces at the deadline and have been struggling to maintain chemistry. Chicago has enough scoring to keep up, with young playmakers and perimeter threats capable of stretching the floor and attacking mismatches. However, their defensive metrics have lagged behind, especially in transition defense and rim protection — two areas Detroit excels. Previous meetings between these teams have featured strong scoring stretches and pace friendly shot profiles, and if this turns into a back and forth guard battle, both sides should find rhythm offensively.

Pistons vs Bulls Prediction: Over 233.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 234.5

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Olivier Maxence Prosper scored 23 points to lead Memphis to a big win over the Utah Jazz in their first game post All-Star break. Don’t worry if you aren’t familiar with Prosper’s game, the Grizzlies are relying mostly on their lesser known players these days after deciding to trade away JJJ and tank the rest of this season. Saturday sees them travel to South Beach for a date with the Miami Heat, at a venue they’ve triumphed in 4 of their last 5 visits. Interestingly enough the Grizzlies are 8-4 SU over the last 12 meetings as well, but most of those wins came in years prior when the Grizz were actually competitive.

Miami celebrated the return of Tyler Herro from injury in a big way as they destroyed the Atlanta Hawks last night 128-97 on the road. It was their 2nd consecutive win and 3rd in four games, Heat fans are hoping they can now go on a run as we enter the final 25 or so games of the regular season. The 76ers in 6th are just 1 game ahead, even the Toronto Raptors in 5th aren’t too far away and a bad week or so by either one of those teams could flip the Heat’s situation dramatically. So it’s important to continue winning, especially against teams that aren’t really trying to do so. Miami has covered in 4 of 5 home games, they’re also 5-2 SU in 7 games vs Southwest Division teams.

Playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back shouldn’t discourage potential Miami Heat bettors here – the Heat have won 9 of 13 such games this season, including their last 3 games in a row. Memphis isn’t going anywhere with this group, they’ve won only once in 11 road games. I’ll go with the Heat in this one.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Predictions: Heat -9.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Sacramento Kings head to the Alamo to take on the San Antonio Spurs, and it’s been a rough time for the Kings lately. The team announced that leading scorer Zach LaVine will have surgery to repair a tendon in his hand, so he’ll miss the rest of the season. It was also announced that veteran center Domantas Sabonis will miss the rest of the season due to surgery to repair his torn left meniscus. The Kings have cratered offensively, too, as you would expect. LaVine was averaging 19.2 points per game, while Sabonis was third with 15.8 PPG, while leading the team with 11.4 RPG, with 4.1 APG to rank second. That’s over 30 percent of the team’s offense gone for the remainder of the season, and the offense is having a hard time picking up the slack.

Sacramento was thumped 131-94 in the first game out of the break Thursday, failing as an 8.5-point underdog, and it has scored 94 or fewer points in 3 in a row, while allowing at least 120 points in 4 in a row. In fact, the average margin of defeat in the past 3 games is by a whopping 30.3 points. It’s awfully risky laying nearly 20 points in a professional game, but the Spurs enter this one on a seven-game win streak, while going 5-0 ATS in the past 5 games, and 6-0-1 ATS in the previous 7. Lay the points with San Antonio in this one.

Kings vs Spurs prediction: Spurs -18 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -19.

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The Houston Rockets enter this matchup near the top of the Western Conference standings, fueled by strong interior play and elite offensive rebounding. Alperen Sengun continues to anchor the offense with his all around production, while veteran scorer Kevin Durant provides efficient perimeter scoring. Houston has thrived during a recent road stretch, but their half court efficiency and three point volume remain inconsistent. Injuries have also tested their depth, particularly in the backcourt, making sustained offensive rhythm harder to maintain against disciplined defenses.

The New York Knicks have been dominant at Madison Square Garden, combining defensive toughness with balanced scoring. Jalen Brunson is averaging around 27 points and continues to control tempo late in games, supported by versatile wings who stretch the floor and defend multiple positions. New York allows roughly 112 points per game and excels at limiting second chance opportunities — a key factor against Houston’s rebounding strength. With home court advantage, defensive stability, and superior late game execution, the Knicks are positioned to dictate pace and close strong.

Rockets vs Knicks Prediction: Knicks -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4

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