NBA Picks

There’s no doubt the Thunder have impressed in their first 3 games since the All-Star break, taking down the Nets, Cavaliers and Raptors in that order. Wednesday sees them take on the East leading Detroit Pistons in what will be their toughest challenge they’ve faced in a while. The fact that it’ll be a 2nd night of a back-to-back makes things even more difficult considering SGA, Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell all remain out. The depth of the Thunder will be tested here, only once this season was the spread on them bigger than the 7.5 points we’re getting ahead of Wednesday’s game. This team has been the underdog in just 3 games so far this year, winning two of those.

Pistons fans had high hopes before Monday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs, following their team’s wins over New York and Chicago after the break. Victor Wembanyama and co. proved to be too big of an obstacle to climb over, as Cade Cunningham had an unusually poor performance scoring just 16 points on 5-for-26 shooting. Jalen Duren excelled with 25 points and 14 rebounds; he could be in line for another solid game on Wednesday against one of the weaker rebounding teams in the league. This will be a big test for the Pistons who have covered only once in 5 games vs West opponents and re 1-4 ATS in 5 games vs teams from the Thunders’ division.

Cade’s MVP case took a big hit in that loss to San Antonio, we all know he’s better than the 5-for-26 effort we saw in that game. Against the weakened Thunder playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back I expect him to show off here. Not having to chase SGA or Jalen Williams around should make his life so much easier, the Thunder have lost their last 3 games played with no rest by double digits to Milwaukee, San Antonio and Charlotte. I’ll take the Pistons here.

Thunder vs Pistons prediction: Pistons -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Wednesday is another opportunity for Victor Wembanyama and his Spurs to get closer to that number one seed in the Western Conference. With 9 wins in a row this is the hottest team in the league right now and a win here combined with a loss by OKC at Detroit could get the Spurs within just 2 games of the top spot. These two met in the first week of the season back in late October and the Spurs got the job done without any issues 121-103 at home, with Wemby delivering a monster performance with 24 points and 15 rebounds on just 8 field goal attempts. And that’s the scenario I’m expecting in this game as well. The Raptors just aren’t built to handle a player of Wemby’s caliber at the center position.

This will be the Raptors’ 11th game played with no rest, as they just lost to the OKC Thunder last night by 9 points at home. In the first 10 such games this team has only 4 wins, two of which came against the Bulls and Kings who aren’t exactly good measuring sticks. Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl being on the injury report makes it all that more difficult, the Spurs wing players could have a field day scoring the ball if Barnes is unable to go here. Toronto has had issues in home games all year long, they’re just 2 games over the .500 mark at the Scotiabank Arena, while over their last 9 games there they’ve covered just 3 times. Against teams from the Southwest Division they’re just 1-8 SU in 9 games played.

Having the rest advantage and a mismatch at the center position in Wemby, it’s hard not to take the Spurs here. During this 9-game win streak they have the NBA’s best Net Rating of +16 points, ranking 1st in offense and 4th in defense in terms of efficiency. In 7 games on the road they’ve covered the spread 6 times, while in head-to-head meetings they’re 4-1 ATS/SU in 5 games played. Take San Antonio.

Spurs vs Raptors prediction: Spurs -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Situational betting is what is preached. And this is all about deriving the mechanics in play in this scenario. Houston is post-season bound while the Kings appear to be the weakest team in the NBA, at present. All that influences in market perception. As a result, Houston will be prone to laying an inflated number here as the favorite, while the opposite holds true with Sacramento. The Kings will be susceptible to taking back an enhanced tag because who would be them? We could argue this from other points of view, but that is the driving force in this market.

Laying double digits overall can be disadvantageous, especially against a team like the Kings. Will they show up and play a full four quarters? That’s a question. Why wouldn’t they? The Rockets are a good measuring stick. But even if Houston gets up big, all Sacramento needs is a few good minutes of basketball in junk time to take a comfortable 20-plus point lead and slip through the backdoor. Houston has a tough road test looming at Orlando tomorrow, so there is no reason to leave the starters out more than they should be, if things get under control. Once again, that is another opportunity for Sacramento to slip through the backdoor.

Kings vs Rockets prediction: Kings +15 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.