NBA Picks

In the battle of the teams with the two best records in the NBA between the Detroit Pistons and the Oklahoma City Thunder, Detroit got the better end of the deal. The Pistons defeated OKC 124-116. And although the Pistons were -10.5 favorites and failed to cover, their stock is through the roof. The market is rushing to back the Pistons now, because on paper they are the team to beat in the NBA. This is all based on narrative, however. The optics are attractive, but the situation is far from alluring.

The Cavaliers and Pistons have a long-storied divisional rivalry. Cleveland and Detroit to keep it simple, do not like each other. It’s easy to overlook all of that, after a resounding win like the Pistons enjoyed on Wednesday. However, the Thunder were severely nicked up, so it wasn’t like the Pistons beat OKC at their peak. It’s important not to overreact. In a rivalry of this nature, the box scores, records and previous results go out the window. Cleveland taking back a modest number here is a show of respect for the level of feuding between these two Central Division foes. The Cavs just got clipped by the Bucks in Milwaukee, though, so it’s easy to write off the Cavaliers in a a step up in competition. However, they may have been looking ahead to this match. The Land has the offensive firepower to stay with the Pistons for a full 4 quarters and if their perimeter operations are in form, the Cavaliers can win this outright.

Cavaliers vs Pistons prediction: Cleveland +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This will be the 4th meeting this season between the Brooklyn Nets and the Boston Celtics, and each of the first 3 contests surpassed the combined 208-point mark. We should be seeing more of the same here. The Nets have had significant defensive issues of late, ranking just 24th in defensive rating over the last 10 games. They have given up 115 or more points in 3 straight contests as a result, and 2 of those games were against teams ranked 19th and 21st in offensive rating over the last 10. As such, the Celtics should have a great offensive showing.  They also come into tonight healthy, with just Jayson Tatum being a long-term absentee.

Over the last 10 games, the Nets are 26th in opponent points in the paint, an area the Celtics should be well positioned to exploit. Jaylen Brown is a very physical guard that will cause the Nets rookie backcourt issues. Expect him to lead a dominant Celtics offense in this one. The Nets have not performed well offensively according to advanced statistics, but they have still managed to score 100 or more points in each of their last 3 games. That includes 110-points against the San Antonio Spurs, a team 3rd in defensive rating over the last 10. They should be able to do their part for the over once again.

Nets vs Celtics prediction: Over 208 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 209.

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The New York Knicks enter this Eastern Conference matchup as one of the more balanced teams in the league, averaging just over 117 points per game while allowing roughly 110 at home. Jalen Brunson continues to pace the offense at around 26/27 points per night, with Karl-Anthony Towns providing interior scoring and rebounding, and strong two-way contributions from Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart. The Knicks’ ability to score efficiently in the half court while defending without fouling has fueled their recent consistency, and they’ve already shown they can dictate tempo in this matchup. Their assist-to-turnover ratio has also improved during this stretch, highlighting cleaner execution late in games and better shot selection in crunch time situations.

The Milwaukee Bucks have played better of late, winning 8 of their last 10, but questions remain — particularly defensively and on the glass. Milwaukee’s offense remains dangerous thanks to perimeter shooting and improved secondary scoring, yet without peak defensive stability, they can struggle against disciplined, high efficiency teams. Opponents have found success attacking mismatches and generating second-chance points, an area where New York thrives. If the Knicks control the boards, win the possession battle, and limit transition looks, their depth and offensive versatility should create separation over 4 quarters.

Knicks vs Bucks Prediction: New York -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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The Memphis Grizzlies enter this matchup in the lower half of the Western Conference and have struggled for consistency amid injuries and roster turnover. They have dropped 7 of their last 8 and have had issues on the glass, often getting outworked in second-chance opportunities. With several key contributors sidelined and a younger rotation stepping into larger roles, Memphis has leaned into slower, half-court possessions to manufacture quality looks. Their offense has lacked consistent explosiveness, making tempo control and defensive effort critical to staying competitive.

The Dallas Mavericks have also navigated lineup adjustments recently, splitting games while relying on structured half-court execution and balanced scoring rather than pace. Dallas has been more deliberate offensively, working deep into the shot clock and prioritizing efficiency over transition opportunities. Recent meetings between these teams have trended lower scoring, including a 102-96 result earlier this season. With both sides favoring controlled possessions and neither operating at peak offensive rhythm, this matchup projects as methodical rather than explosive — especially without Cooper Flagg on the floor tonight.

Grizzlies vs Mavericks prediction: Under 239 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 237.5.

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The over is playable because the underlying math points to that being tenable. Denver enters with the NBA’s best offensive rating (120.7 ppg), and Oklahoma City owns the league’s best defensive rating (106.4 ppg), thus making this a true strength-on-strength matchup. But we are not asking for a track meet — we are asking Denver and Oklahoma City to generate average scoring production from both sides. Another key for an over is that elite offenses can still score efficiently against elite defenses when the shot diet is clean, and Denver’s offense is built to consistently generate those looks.

The other factor is Oklahoma City’s offensive ceiling changing today. Reports indicate that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been cleared to return from injury, which raises OKC’s ability to sustain scoring across all 4 quarters. That is enormous. Finally, this matchup has already shown it can reach this neighborhood. When these 2 teams met at the beginning of this month, 232 total points were scored. Even if OKC’s defense remains elite, the Nuggets’ efficiency profile plus SGA’s return gives this game several paths to clear the number.

Nuggets vs Thunder prediction: Over 231.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 232.

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