NBA Picks

With half their team out injured, the Golden State Warriors have limped their way to New Orleans to take on a Pelicans team they’ve beaten in both meetings so far this season. Sweeping the regular season series will be a challenge considering how many important players are missing, but then again we just saw the Warriors beat the Denver Nuggets in this state on Sunday. It was their 2nd game in a row with 20+ threes, which is quite the feat considering the absence of Stephen Curry in both of those games.

New Orleans also has a couple of really good players out for this game, including their leading scorer Trey Murphy III. But just like the Warriors, the Pelicans too defied all odds and beat the Philadelphia 76ers over the weekend despite not having their leading scorer available. The win was only their 4th in 13 home games, but it was the 5th time in 7 games they were able to cover the spread in the underdog role. The oddsmakers see them as underdogs once again, but only by 1.5 points. Golden State has won 4 of the last 5 meetings at Smoothie King Center.

It’s hard to get a good read on this game due to all the injuries and absences of both rosters. The projected total has been set to 224.5 points which does sound a tad too high, only 200 points were scored in the most recent meeting between these two teams. The under has cashed 4 times in 5 games head-to-head, the Pels have gone 5 consecutive games under the total vs West opponents as well. I’ll be sticking with that trend and backing the under here.

 Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans Predictions: Under 224.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Tyler Herro’s return from injury couldn’t come at a better time for the Miami Heat who just extended their win streak to 3 games in a row. Following the all-star break they’ve now scored 128 and 136 points in their first 2 games, with Herro in the rotation they now have another 20+ ppg capable scorer and opposing teams are struggling to find answers. Tuesday sees the Heat take on the Milwaukee Bucks – a team that’s had their number over the years, but with Giannis Antetokounmpo out of the line-up this could be Miami’s best chance to revert that trend. In five meetings the Heat have just one win and are 0-5 ATS, but despite that there will be no shortage of confidence following this recent run of stellar play offensively.

The Bucks split their first two games after the break. Following a 21 point win over the Pelicans they fell at home to the Raptors by 28, but that defeat can be partially attributed to the fact that it was a 2nd night of a back-to-back. Without Giannis the Bucks have been punching above their weight, however against a team like Miami they’ll have to be very sharp on the offensive end if they want to keep up in the scoring department. The play of Rylan Rollins certainly deserves recognition – over his last 8 games he’s shooting the three-ball at 53.4%, he will be Milwaukee’s main option on offense on Tuesday.

If the first two games post all-star break are an indicator, the Miami Heat are back to playing the run and gun style of play which we saw in the first couple of months of the season. They shot the lights out both vs Atlanta and Memphis, the Bucks are worse in defensive rating than both of those teams this season. Backing the over has yielded a profit in 10 of 12 meetings at Fiserv Forum, I’ll be backing the points in this one.

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Predictions: Over 228.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

No team in the NBA has been as frustrating to support as the Minnesota Timberwolves have been this season. On some nights they’ll beat high quality opponents without any issues and on some nights they’ll lose convincingly to teams like the Philadelphia 76ers who are missing two All-Star type players. Ant Man and co. are looking to bounce back following a disastrous showing vs Philadelphia over the weekend, they didn’t have Rudy Gobert in that game, but even without him they shouldn’t be losing that game by 27 points. Things should be slightly easier against the Portland Trail Blazers whom they’ve beaten in both meetings so far this season. In the last 10 meetings the T’Wolves have lost only twice to this team.

A game after allowing 157 points to the Nuggets, the Trail Blazers responded by holding the Phoenix Suns to just 77 points in a 15-point win. It wasn’t the prettiest of games to watch, but the Blazers got the much needed win vs the shorthanded Suns. Once again Deni Avdija is back on the injury report, he’s expected to miss the Minnesota game as his back injury continues to linger. Playing in the underdog role has been tough on the Blazers lately, they’ve failed to cover in 5 such consecutive games, while for the season they’re just 12-23 SU in that role. Over the last 10 games this team has shot over 50% from the field on just two occasions, so it’s quite remarkable they’ve been able to go 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played.

So many people were let down by the Timberwolves in their last game, but this is a good chance for Edwards and co. to redeem themselves. They beat the Trail Blazers convincingly in the most recent meeting 133-109 less than two weeks ago, with Gobert back the middle of the paint will be well protected here. I’m taking Minnesota to cover.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Portland Trail Blazers Predictions: Timberwolves -5.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It will be a potential NBA Finals preview when the Detroit Pistons host the San Antonio Spurs on Monday night. Both teams are in outstanding form (as they have been pretty much all season long), but the Spurs are especially hot. They are riding an 8-game winning streak and all 8 of those victories have come by at least 9 points. Their last 7 wins have all been by double-digit margins — including by 10 over Oklahoma City, 28 over the Lakers, 13 over Golden State and 27 over Phoenix. San Antonio is simply playing too well to fade right now. As such, my Spurs vs Pistons prediction is for the visitors to cover.

The Pistons are also rolling, winners of 5 straight. However, the absence of Isaiah Stewart (suspended a total of 7 games for his role in a melee with Charlotte earlier this month) should not be overlooked. Although Stewart may not be a starter, he is averaging 10.0 points and 5.1 rebounds per game and his defensive prowess would have been especially useful against an opponent like San Antonio. Largely thanks to Stewart, Detroit is one of the best rim defending teams in the association. It can still be solid without him in that department, but you obviously want to have all hands on deck when going up against the likes of Victor Wembanyama. Wemby has scored at least 26 points in 3 of the last 4 games and is coming off a 28-point, 15-rebound, 6-assist and 4-block performance during Saturday’s 139-122 win over Sacramento. The 2.5 points are worth taking, but San Antonio has a pretty good chance to win this one outright.

Spurs vs Pistons prediction: San Antonio +2.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +2.

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The Sacramento Kings have endured a difficult 2025-26 season, sitting near the bottom of the standings at 12-44 while battling major injuries. Sacramento is averaging 110.1 points per game but allowing 120.6 ppg, a gap that has led to repeated double-digit losses. With Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and De’Andre Hunter sidelined, the Kings have struggled to generate consistent half-court offense — recently shooting just 40.7% from the field and under 30% from 3 in a blowout defeat. Defensive lapses and limited depth have made it tough for Sacramento to stay competitive late in games.

Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies have been the more balanced and productive side, averaging 115.3 ppg with steady contributions from one of their few silver linings in Ty Jerome. Memphis has already beaten Sacramento multiple times this season, including dominant wins like 137-96 and a tighter 129-125 result that showcased the offensive edge. The Grizzlies are just in a much better situation right now, which gives them a clear advantage — particularly against a depleted Kings roster struggling defensively. With Memphis in stronger form and controlling matchups on both ends, they’re positioned to dictate pace and cover the short spread.

Kings vs Grizzlies prediction: Memphis -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5.

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The temptation is there to take this amount of points with a team an offense as potent as that of the Jazz. What if the Rockets get up big and call off the dogs? Utah can sneak through the back door. That’s one theory. Another lies in the amount being too much to begin with. But make no mistake, Houston can establish separation and keep it that way.

Utah lives and dies by its offense and playing with pace. When all cylinders are firing, it is true that the Notes can light up the scoreboard. The problem is the Rockets are a defensive-team that can match the Jazz’s physicality at the rim and bog them down in the paint. If Utah’s offense isn’t working, the defense won’t bail the Jazz out — as they are among the worst statistically in all major categories. Unless Utah gets off to a searing start early, Houston can put some distance between it and the Jazz by simply clamping down and beating them back in transition — which, incidentally, the Rockets can do. Laying double-digits seems like a long swim back, but Houston can win this game by much more than the posted price.

Jazz vs Rockets prediction: Houston -14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -15.

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