NBA Picks

It’s easy to fade the Sixers here on the road. There have been some mishaps already this season. But this is a point spread that shows separation in class and structure. Philly is being asked to win by margin on the road, but the number makes sense because Indiana’s current profile doesn’t offer many ways to stop said separation. When the Pacers fall behind, they tend to chase, which increases variance and speeds the game up. That’s a great recipe for a comeback, but it’s an equally viable set-up for getting blown out when the favorite can score efficiently. The number here would suggest Philly is in position to be efficient.

The key isn’t just that Philadelphia is better; it’s that the Pacers aren’t built to grind a game into a one-possession rock fight. If this turns into a possessions game, Indiana’s defensive stops have to come from making shots hard, not from consistently ending trips cleanly. That’s a fragile way to live when catching a team with real scoring potential. This is a scenario where Philadelphia’s superior roster and play on both ends of the court serve as the difference maker. The Sixers are a playoff team, while Indiana is thinking about the lottery. The difference is found in the margins, so I’ll back the 76ers in this spot.

76ers vs Pacers prediction: 76ers (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is all about offensive reliability in a game the market is pricing as a toss-up. When spreads sit inside a single possession, the edge usually comes from which team can manufacture quality shots when the chips are down. That’s where Dallas holds the advantage. Brooklyn’s offense after all, has been a bit of a mystery. The Mavericks’ offense is built around shot control. In tight games, they don’t need pace or transition to score. Brooklyn’s offense, by contrast, is more rhythm-dependent. Many of the Nets possessions often drift into contested perimeter attempts which introduces scoring volatility. The problem is Brooklyn hasn’t exactly fared well in adhering to this philosophy, as they have the worst scoring offense in the NBA.

That difference matters over 48 minutes. Close games are rarely decided by highlight runs; they’re decided by the empty possession gaps and which team can avoid a prolapsed drought. Dallas is simply better equipped to avoid those. At the present number posted, this isn’t asking Dallas to dominate, just to execute better late and score one more basket against a team that cannot reliably score. Back the Mavericks in this one.

Mavericks vs Nets prediction: Mavericks -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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The 15-point loss to Detroit proved to be a wake-up call for the New York Knicks who have responded with back-to-back wins over the Rockets and Bulls. Facing the rejuvenated Cavaliers on Tuesday will be another tough task, but having won both meetings earlier this season the Knicks will come prepared. This will be only their 10th time this as an underdog, despite winning 6 of 7 on the road and 12 of 15 overall. Since the break their three-point defense has improved quite a fair bit – opponents have made only 35.7% of threes in the 3 games played, compared to 38.5% going into the All-Star break. Michell Robinson being healthy and playing is also a big deal ahead of this game, the Knicks will need a strong performance from him against the likes of Jarrett Allen and co. down low.

Losing to the shorthanded OKC Thunder on Sunday wasn’t the best of looks for James Harden and his new team. The Cavaliers win streak was snapped at 7 in a row, they led in that game for only 3% of play time according to ESPN’s stats and info. Performances like that aren’t shouldn’t come as a surprise for a team that’s completely re-shifted its offense mid-season adding a dynamic player at the point guard position. With Harden at the helm the offensive rating has gone up to 124.8 points per 100 possessions, from 118.1 points before the trade went down. However, scoring on the Knicks could prove to be difficult, they are the 4th best defense in terms of paint points allowed.

Tuesday’s game is a big one with the 3rd seed in the East on the line, so I expect both teams to be locked in. Despite the massive improvement offensively by the Cavs, I am still not sold on them. New York has everyone ready and available, they’re the more battle tested team when it comes to pressure situations. Ultimately, I’ll lean towards the Knicks here.

Knicks vs Cavaliers prediction: Knicks +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Even with Oklahoma City’s injuries, the number still looks off. The team with the best record in the NBA and the defending champs taking back a tag against anyone, say what? The setup however, favors Toronto. The Raptors identity is rooted in physical defense and possession pressure. That approach is the perfect recipe for the Thunder who are missing key playmakers like Chet Holmgren and SGA. The Dinos excel at turning games into long, half-court sequences where every trip has to be earned. That matters greatly against Oklahoma City, a team that thrives when it can play with rhythm and advantage spacing who once again we reiterate is short-handed. If the Raptors keep the Thunder out of sync, shot quality becomes harder to generate. In a hostile setting like Toronto, this can be magnified.

The total sitting in the mid-210s reinforces the script. Lower-scoring environments favor the home team because each possession carries more weight and the emotional intangibles of playing at home can be pivotal in the late stages of the contest. Moreover, Toronto’s defensive discipline and rebounding give them multiple ways to win in what forecasts to be a competitive affair. However, whether it actually plays out that way is another story. The set-up is for Toronto to make a statement in the Great White North.

Thunder vs Raptors prediction: Raptors -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Washington Wizards are in a difficult position entering this matchup, with their starting lineup depleted and rotation stability nearly nonexistent. Injuries have forced Washington into extended minutes for inexperienced contributors, and the results haven’t been encouraging. The Wizards rank near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency, hovering around 109 points per game, and their defense has struggled to contain dribble penetration and second chance opportunities. More concerning from a betting perspective, Washington has failed to cover spreads larger than +10 points in 3 straight games, often falling behind early and lacking the firepower to respond. Without reliable shot creation or interior resistance, they’ve had trouble keeping games competitive against teams with even moderate offensive depth.

The Atlanta Hawks, while inconsistent at times this season, are in a far better position at this point in time. Atlanta averages roughly 117 points per game and benefits from balanced scoring and improved ball movement compared to last year’s iso heavy approach. Even if the Hawks haven’t been trustworthy as heavy favorites historically, this matchup presents a rare edge. Their offensive versatility should exploit Washington’s thin perimeter defense, and Atlanta’s depth allows them to maintain pressure for four quarters. While laying this many points is never ideal, the situational factors strongly favor the home side.

Wizards vs Hawks prediction: Hawks -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Chicago Bulls find themselves on a 9-game losing streak as they host the Charlotte Hornets. There are positive signs for them, however, with the return of Josh Giddey to the squad from injury. The Australian guard has appeared in each of their last 3 games and should have shaken off any rust he had. They do have some injuries to their bigs with Zach Collins out and Jalen Smith listed as questionable. However, with experienced centers in Nick Richards and Guerschon Yabusele ready to step in, they should be able to hold their own. Moussa Diabate will be back for the Hornets from suspension, but he is far from a dominant inside scorer so the Bulls pair should not have issues matching up against him.

The Hornets made a surprising surge up the rankings around the All-Star break but there are signs they are slowing down. Over the last 5 games they have been 15th in net offensive and defensive rating and have lost 3 of those games. The Bulls have been respectable at home this season with a .500 record so they should be no pushovers. The hosts have had issues taking care of the ball, ranking 29th in opponent points off turnovers over the last 10 games. However, the Hornets have struggled scoring off turnovers during that stretch so the hosts could get away with it today. Take the points with the Bulls in this one.

Hornets vs Bulls prediction: Bulls +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

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With half their team out injured, the Golden State Warriors have limped their way to New Orleans to take on a Pelicans team they’ve beaten in both meetings so far this season. Sweeping the regular season series will be a challenge considering how many important players are missing, but then again we just saw the Warriors beat the Denver Nuggets in this state on Sunday. It was their 2nd game in a row with 20+ threes, which is quite the feat considering the absence of Stephen Curry in both of those games.

New Orleans also has a couple of really good players out for this game, including their leading scorer Trey Murphy III. But just like the Warriors, the Pelicans too defied all odds and beat the Philadelphia 76ers over the weekend despite not having their leading scorer available. The win was only their 4th in 13 home games, but it was the 5th time in 7 games they were able to cover the spread in the underdog role. The oddsmakers see them as underdogs once again, but only by 1.5 points. Golden State has won 4 of the last 5 meetings at Smoothie King Center.

It’s hard to get a good read on this game due to all the injuries and absences of both rosters. The projected total has been set to 224.5 points which does sound a tad too high, only 200 points were scored in the most recent meeting between these two teams. The under has cashed 4 times in 5 head-to-head games, and the Pelicans have gone 5 consecutive games under the total vs Western Conference opponents as well. I’ll be sticking with that trend and backing the under here.

Warriors vs Pelicans prediction: Under 224.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Tyler Herro’s return from injury couldn’t come at a better time for the Miami Heat who just extended their win streak to 3 games in a row. Following the all-star break they’ve now scored 128 and 136 points in their first 2 games, with Herro in the rotation they now have another 20+ ppg capable scorer and opposing teams are struggling to find answers. Tuesday sees the Heat take on the Milwaukee Bucks – a team that’s had their number over the years, but with Giannis Antetokounmpo out of the line-up this could be Miami’s best chance to revert that trend. In five meetings the Heat have just one win and are 0-5 against the spread, but despite that there will be no shortage of confidence following this recent run of stellar play offensively.

The Bucks split their first couple of games after the break. Following a 21 point win over the Pelicans they fell at home to the Raptors by 28, but that defeat can be partially attributed to the fact that it was a 2nd night of a back-to-back. Without Giannis the Bucks have been punching above their weight, however against a team like Miami they’ll have to be very sharp on the offensive end if they want to keep up in the scoring department. The play of Rylan Rollins certainly deserves recognition – over his last 8 games he’s shooting the 3-ball at 53.4%, he will be Milwaukee’s main option on offense on Tuesday.

If the first couple of games post all-star break are an indicator, the Miami Heat are back to playing the run and gun style of play which we saw in the first couple of months of the season. They shot the lights out both vs Atlanta and Memphis, the Bucks are worse in defensive rating than both of those teams this season. Backing the over has yielded a profit in 10 of 12 meetings at Fiserv Forum, and I’ll look for that trend to continue here.

Heat vs Bucks prediction: Over 228.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Phoenix Suns enter this matchup severely shorthanded, and the offensive drop off without Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks has been glaring. In their first game missing both, Phoenix managed just 77 total points, struggling to generate clean looks or consistent half court execution. Without Booker’s shot creation and Brooks’ perimeter scoring, the Suns lack reliable late clock options and secondary playmaking. Their offensive rating has dipped significantly in recent outings, and depth concerns only amplify the issue against disciplined opponents. Facing a defense that limits transition and forces contested jumpers, Phoenix could once again find scoring at a premium.

The Boston Celtics bring one of the league’s top defensive units into this game, ranking near the top in defensive efficiency and opponent field goal percentage. Boston consistently controls tempo and protects the three point line, two areas that directly impact a shorthanded Phoenix roster. While Jaylen Brown is a game time decision — which makes laying a heavy spread less appealing — the Celtics’ defensive identity remains intact regardless. Rather than trusting the number, the stronger angle appears to be fading Phoenix’s scoring ceiling altogether. Against an elite defense with playoff level intensity, it’s hard to see the Suns reaching triple digits.

Celtics vs Suns Prediction: Suns Team Total Under 99.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 98.5.

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No team in the NBA has been as frustrating to support as the Minnesota Timberwolves have been this season. On some nights they’ll beat high quality opponents without any issues and on some nights they’ll lose convincingly to teams like the Philadelphia 76ers who were missing a pair of All-Stars. Anthony Edwards and company are looking to bounce back following a disastrous showing vs Philadelphia over the weekend, they didn’t have Rudy Gobert in that game, but even without him they shouldn’t be losing that game by 27 points. Things should be slightly easier against the Portland Trail Blazers whom they’ve beaten in both meetings so far this season. In the last 10 meetings the T’Wolves have lost only twice to this team.

A game after allowing 157 points to the Nuggets, the Trail Blazers responded by holding the Phoenix Suns to just 77 points in a 15-point win. It wasn’t the prettiest of games to watch, but the Blazers got the much needed win vs the shorthanded Suns. Once again Deni Avdija is back on the injury report, he’s expected to miss the Minnesota game as his back injury continues to linger. Playing in the underdog role has been tough on the Blazers lately, they’ve failed to cover in 5 such consecutive games, while for the season they’re just 12-23 SU in that role. Over the last 10 games this team has shot over 50% from the field on just two occasions, so it’s quite remarkable they’ve been able to go 5-2 in their last 7 games played.

So many people were let down by the Timberwolves in their last game, but this is a good chance for Edwards and co. to redeem themselves. They beat the Trail Blazers convincingly in the most recent meeting 133-109 less than two weeks ago, with Gobert back the middle of the paint will be well protected here. I’m taking Minnesota to cover.

Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers prediction: Timberwolves -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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