NBA Picks

The Dallas Mavericks pull into Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis with a little momentum, covering as a 14-point underdog in Minneapolis on Friday. Dallas has lost 10 in a row, while going 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in the past 6 games, and 3-7 ATS across the previous 10 outings. The Under has cashed in the past couple of games, and the total has gone low at a 6-4 clip over the past 10 games. On the road, the under is 6-2 in the past 8 games as well.

As for the Pacers, they dropped back-to-back games in the nation’s capital against the Washington Wizards, while failing to cover either game, while splitting the Over-Under. Indiana has struggled defensively, allowing 118 or more points in 6 of the past 9 outings. The under is 10-6 in the past 16 games at home for Indiana. It’s too hard to handicap a winning side in this one, so we’ll go with the Under based on the trends of Dallas on the road, and the result of the first meeting.

Mavericks vs Pacers prediction: Under 232.5 (-105) at time of publishing. Playable to 231.5.

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Starting off their 4-game West coast road trip with a big win in Golden State did wonders for the confidence of the Celtics, who now face their all-time rivals the Lakers. Jaylen Brown absolutely dominated the Warriors with 23 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists, I’m surprised he isn’t getting more love in the MVP conversation these days. The Celtics are 7-1 over their last 8 games going into Sunday, and they’ve also won 4 of 5 on the road. The only concern when backing this team is the 3-point shot, but with the Lakers ranking only 22nd in opponent 3-point percentage this season, that shouldn’t be an issue here.

The Lakers will take the underdog roll with open hands here, as they finally have their big 3 back and playing together. In 11 games with Doncic, Reaves and LeBron they have an 8-3 SU record which does look elite on paper. However, the defense is what’s concerning if you’re a supporter of this team. Having a high scoring trio like that masks a lot of deficiencies they have on the other end, we saw exactly that in their first game after the break when Doncic went nuclear and they took down the Clippers 125-122. Can they do the same against Boston? The Celtics are a much more consistent defensive unit, in order to beat them you almost have to play a perfect game.

As good as the Lakers have looked with their trio of stars, I am just not able to trust them against elite opposition. Boston has done it on both ends consistently, maybe even better on the road than at home this season. They’re 18-10 ATS in away games and also have the superior head-to-head record. Containing Luka could be problematic, but then again the Lakers are in the same boat with Jaylen Brown. I’ll take the Celtics in this spot.

Boston Celtics vs Los Angeles Lakers Predictions: Celtics -2 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Philadelphia 76ers will have their hands full on Sunday night when they get set to take on a Minnesota Timberwolves team with wins in each of their last 3 games and 8 of their last 11. All 3 of the Timberwolves wins during their current streak have been by at least 11 points, with an average win margin of 19 points. Anthony Edwards ranks 3rd in the NBA with 29.5 ppg and is fresh off a masterful 40-piece against the Dallas Mavericks where he knocked down 5 triple and shot over 50% from the field. While Rudy Gobert will serve a 1-game suspension on Sunday after being charged with his 7th flagrant foul of the season against Dallas, the Timberwolves are otherwise at full strength.

The same cannot be said for the 76ers, as Paul George continues to serve his 25-game suspension, making him eligible to return on March 25, and Joel Embiid continues to struggle with knee issues. Embiid has already missed 25 games this season and the big man has not suited up since February 7 due to right knee injury management and shin soreness. At the time of writing, Embiid is listed as a game-time decision, but it wouldn’t come as a surprise if Philadelphia rested him since the Sixers don’t play again until Tuesday. If Embiid is sidelined on Sunday, laying the points with Minnesota seems like a solid play. The 76ers have dropped 4 consecutive games, all by double digits, and have lost 7 of their last 8 games when Embiid was out. Back the Timberwolves to remain hot.

Philadelphia 76ers vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction: Timberwolves -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Knicks enter this matchup at 36-21, averaging about 117.7 points per game while shooting over 47% from the field this season. Led by Jalen Brunson and anchored inside by Karl-Anthony Towns, New York has thrived in half court execution and tempo control, ranking among the top offenses in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls have struggled during an eight game skid, with their scoring dipping to roughly 110 points per game over the last 10 games, despite a season average near 116.4 points per game. Defensive lapses have hurt Chicago, but offensive inconsistency and injuries have limited sustained scoring runs.

In their previous meeting, New York secured a 128-116 win, yet stylistically this matchup projects differently given Chicago’s recent offensive downturn. The Knicks are comfortable slowing pace, forcing contested half court possessions, and grinding through defensive stretches rather than playing in transition heavy shootouts. Chicago’s recent struggles to generate efficient offense further suggest fewer explosive scoring bursts. While both teams are capable scorers, current trends point toward longer possessions and more sluggish shooting than a pure up tempo game.

Knicks vs Bulls Prediction: Under 231 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 229.5

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The Portland Trail Blazers hit the road for the Valley of the Sun with revenge on their mind after suffering a 130-125 loss on its home court on Feb. 3 as a 3-point underdog as the Over (219.5) comfortably cashed. Portland has won 4 of the past 6 games, but it is just 3-7 against the spread (ATS) in the past 10 games. However, it’s all about the Over in Trail Blazers games lately, cashing in eight in a row. The defense has gone south, bottoming out in a 157-103 loss at home against the Denver Nuggets on Friday. They’ve allowed 127+ points in 5 of the past 9 outings.

For the Suns, they outlasted the Orlando Magic 113-110 in double overtime, so could the offense be sluggish in a back-to-back situation? At least the Suns are home for both matchups, and they slept in their own beds with no travel, so that could mean the ‘no-rest’ factor isn’t as big of a deal as it might be on the road, or with travel involved. The Over is 5-4 in 9 games playing on no rest, including a perfect 3-0 record in the past 3 times. The Over is 3-1 in the past 4 games, too, with Phoenix allowing at least 109 points in five in a row, and 8 of the past 9 contests.

Trail Blazers vs Suns prediction: Over 223.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 224.5.

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In typical Orlando Magic fashion they once again found a way to disappoint us all, just when we thought they’ve turned a corner. Coming out of the break they smacked the Sacramento Kings on the road and it seemed they were destined to get a result in Phoenix on Saturday night, especially when Dillon Brooks went out after just 7 mins played with a broken hand. But, Orlando couldn’t take advantage and fell in double OT 113-110. Now they have the difficult task of playing with no rest, facing a tough-minded Clippers team that’s owned them in recent meetings. A total of 3 Magic starters logged 40 or more minutes on Saturday, so there could be some fatigue issues going into Sunday’s game.

The Clippers had their back-to-back scenario in the first two games after the break, getting a split against the Nuggets and Lakers. The injury situation took a turn for the worse with John Collins and Darius Garland both being ruled out for this game, but the biggest issue is Kawhi Leonard being questionable due to an ankle injury. Despite all that the oddsmakers still have faith in this team, the Clippers head into this game as favorites by 3.5 points. That’s because they’ve covered in 5 consecutive games overall and are 14-6 SU in their last 20 played. The Intuit Dome has been a fort not many teams have conquered lately – LA has covered in 11 of 14 games there. Against the Magic they’ve lost only twice in 12 home games, which is one of the more consistent records between any two teams in the NBA at the moment.

Whether or not Kawhi plays is the million dollar question here. His presence change the equation dramatically, with the Clippers still chasing a top 6 seed in the West I think he will gut it out and play. Orlando spent way too much energy last night in Phoenix only to lose in the end, I think the Clippers have enough to come out on top here. Back Los Angeles at home here.

Orlando Magic vs Los Angeles Clippers Predictions: Clippers -3.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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It will be a potential NBA Finals preview when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday afternoon. Right now, however, Oklahoma City does not resemble the championship team from last year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal) is out for at least another week and Jalen Williams (hamstring) is not particularly close to returning. The Thunder are still in decent enough form with 3 wins in their last 4 games, but they are also just 6-6 in their last 12. Given OKC’s current malaise and the extremely tough competition level on store for Sunday, my Cavaliers vs Thunder pick is for the visitors to win and cover.

Cleveland is in spectacular form at the moment. Donovan Mitchell and company are 12-1 in their last 13 games and they are undefeated in 5 outings since acquiring James Harden prior to the trade deadline. Harden is shooting 49.1 percent from the floor, 48.1 percent from deep and 89.3 percent from the free-throw line with his new team. Evan Mobley was rested for Friday’s victory over Charlotte, so the big man will be in good shape for this much more important showdown against the defending NBA champs. Meanwhile, Mitchell has scored 30 points or more in 4 of the last 5 contests. The Cavs simply have a ton of weapons — especially with Harden now on board. When healthy, Oklahoma City has as many if not even more. For the time being, though, that is not the case. Cleveland is solid on the road (17-10 SU overall, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 on the road), so it won’t be afraid of going into OKC.

Cavaliers vs Thunder prediction: Cleveland -1 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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The Brooklyn Nets have stumbled out of the All-Star break with two really bad losses, falling 112-84 in Cleveland on Thursday, while losing 105-86 at Oklahoma City on Friday catching 17 points. The Nets are 0-3 against the spread in the past 3 games, while going 2-6 ATS in the past eight outings. Brooklyn actually hasn’t been terrible defensively, allowing 115 or fewer points in each of the past 5 games, but it has managed just 85 points oper game in both contests since the break.

The Atlanta Hawks were routed by the Miami Heat 128-97 at home, and it is just 1-4 straight up in the past 5 games, while going 1-5 ATS in the past 6 games, and 2-7 ATS across the past 9 outings. The Under has cashed in 3 straight for the Hawks, while giving up 110 or fewer points in two of the past 3 games, while going for 119 or fewer points in 5 consecutive contests. Let’s focus on the Under in this one.

Nets vs Hawks prediction: Under 229.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 228.

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Nikola Jokic and co. finally got their act together and demolished the Portland Trail Blazers 157-103, winning their 21st road game of the season. They’re looking to connect back-to-back wins for the first time in the month of February, going up against the shorthanded Warriors. They’ve dominated this match-up in large part over the past several seasons, winning 10 of the last 12 games and 4 of the last 6 at Chase Center. Not having the likes of Jalen Pickett, Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon and potentially Jamal Murray will make life difficult, but as long as Joker is playing I am not too concerned.

What I am concerned with, at least from the Warriors’ perspective is the fact that Stephen Curry remains out. When he doesn’t play they’re a mediocre team at 6-11 SU in 17 games played, on top of that they could also be without their newest addition Kristaps Porzingis who is unable to consistently stay out there on the court. In their first game after the break the Warriors got smacked by the Celtics at home, being down as much as 34 points at one point. The offense without Steph is too stagnant and forces too many three point shots, it’s hard to win against elite teams playing this way.

Denver dominated the most recent meeting 129-104 in a game in which the Warriors had Jimmy Butler available. With him and Steph gone this is a lottery team at best, if the Nuggets take this game seriously, which I expect them to do, this should be one of the easier picks on Sunday night. Take Denver.

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors Predictions: Nuggets -5.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Toronto Raptors wrap up a quick two-game Midwest road trip in Cream City on Sunday. The Raptors took care of the Chicago Bulls on Thursday in the first stop on the trip, covering as 6.5-point favorites as the Under cashed for the 3rd straight outing. The Raptors are 4-1 against the spread over the past 5 games, too, while improving to 5-1 ATS in the past 6 games on the road. This is the fourth meeting of the regular season, and Toronto has won and covered each of the past 2 installments, including a 111-105 win in Milwaukee as a 4.5-point favorite on Dec. 18.

For the Bucks, they’re 6 games under .500, and Giannis Antetokounmpo remains sidelined due to a strained right calf. The Bucks got hot on the road, rattling off three straight wins, including a 139-118 win in New Orleans on Friday as a 4.5-point underdog. The Over cashed in that one, but the Under still has a 3-2 edge in the past five games, and 10-7 in the past 17 outings. Since the Bucks are a healthy 6-1 ATS in the past seven games, and the Raps have been hot lately, too, we’ll focus more on the total. With no Giannis, Milwaukee has struggled to score, at least when it isn’t facing the Pelicans. Since Jan. 29, they have 116 or fewer points in six of the past 9 games, with two of those times going above happening against the Pels.

Raptors vs Bucks prediction: Under 222 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 221.5.

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