NBA Picks

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Detroit is 46-18 and Philadelphia is 35-30, so the instinct is to assume this spread is justified on class alone. Add in that the Pistons are playing at home and the penchant is even greater. But once a number gets past two full touchdowns, it stops being about who is better and starts being about how many clean possessions the favorite needs to create separation. In a game lined with a total at only 221.0, that is a meaningful hurdle. Lower totals often means reduced possession count, and when possessions shrink, big spreads become harder to cash.

Big underdogs like the Sixers in lower-total games benefit from simple arithmetic: they can be clearly second-best and still stay inside the number if the game never gets loose. Detroit does not need to win by 15 to validate being the better team; it just needs to control the night. Those are different tasks. At 221.0, a few empty Pistons trips or one flat offensive quarter can change the cover math completely. The line and total together imply a controlled game, and controlled games are not ideal environments for laying this much wood. Philadelphia is the side. For better or for worse.

76ers vs Pistons prediction: Philadelphia 76ers +14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +14.

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It is so fun to watch this Phoenix Suns offense when it’s clicking, and it’s been doing just that over their last 3 games. The Suns have now won 3 games in a row and 5 of their last 6, connecting on 20+ threes on 3 occasions. Last time out, they dropped 24 threes on the Bucks, winning the game despite being down by double-digits at one point. The spread is now at 9 points vs a Pacers team that’s lost 10 in a row. Phoenix also holds the edge in head-to-head meetings, winning 8 of the last 12. Even with Mark Williams and Dillon Brooks both being out, the injury situation is still a lot better for Phoenix here.

Indiana returns home following a 4-game West coast trip where they were beat by the Clippers, Lakers, Trail Blazers and Kings. This team is showing effort on certain nights, but with so many players out, even when they have it going, they fall short against mediocre teams. The Suns are a level above that, so Indy could be facing another uphill battle to survive here. Playing at home is the only reason for their fans to be somewhat optimistic here, as 10 of their 15 wins on the season came at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse. However, with Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell all being questionable it’s hard to expect anything from them.

Phoenix thoroughly dominated the first meeting 133-98 back in mid-November. With Indy hosting this one, I expect a closer game, but the Suns should still be able to win by double-digits. They’ve been red-hot from three, while the Pacers are allowing 39.8% of deep shots to go in over their last 3 games. Go with Booker and co. in this one.

Suns vs Pacers Predictions: Phoenix Suns -9 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After surrendering 83 points to Bam Adebayo, and a total of 150 points to the Miami Heat, the Washington Wizards will travel across Florida to take on the Orlando Magic. The Magic have been heating up down the stretch, winning their last 5 games, and their current winning streak has pushed them all the way up to the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference. The Magic have strengthened their record through winning on their home court, winning their last 3 games at the Kia Center as part of a 20-11 home record.

Desmond Bane has taken a step forward in his first year in Orlando. Bane is coming off a 35 point game in the win over Cleveland, and he is averaging 26.1 points per game in his last 10 games. Tonight’s game will be the second of a back-to-back for Orlando, so tired legs could play a factor. I’m looking at Washington’s defense for this game. The Wizards have been the 2nd-worst team in defensive efficiency this season. They allow 123.7 points per game, also ranking 2nd-worst in the NBA.

I understand that the Wizards are tanking, but after putting forth a defensive effort as poor as they did against Bam Adebayo — who scored the 2nd-most points in a single game ever — and then being laughed at by the entire NBA, pride has to begin to set in. I expect a better effort on the defensive end tonight from Washington, with better closeout on shooters, more talk on defense, and maybe we’ll even see some players dive on the floor for a loose ball. Tuesday night against Miami was the low of the season for the Wizards. It’s only up from here, and they have the chance to put together a better effort against Magic playing in the second half of a back-to-back.

Wizards vs Magic prediction: Under 233.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Atlanta has been on a bit of a heater recently, while the Nets have been abysmal for most of the regular season. The market is reacting to that notion and the difference is reflected in the point spread. The line makes sense at first glance, but giant numbers against mediocre-to-good teams are often the most dangerous kind to lay because they assume not just superiority, but sustained attention. Atlanta is good enough to win this game cleanly. The question is whether the Hawks are built to maintain margin.

Big spreads need either relentless offensive efficiency or the ability to create repeated bowing of the neck on defense. Can Atlanta manage to do either? That’s the better question, but it’s easy to get behind a favorite laying this much against an opponent nobody wants to back. That is usually where hidden value starts. Brooklyn’s season-long profile is ugly, but that is baked into the price. Once the market makes the Nets this unattractive, the bar for taking them actually drops. Atlanta can be clearly better and still fail to justify a number this inflated. Given the fact that the Hawks sit 20th or worst in rebounding, scoring defense, and opponent field goal percentage, the backdoor is wide open for the Nets. That is enough to side with Brooklyn.

Nets vs Hawks prediction: Brooklyn Nets +14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +14.

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Denver just celebrated a dominant win over the Houston Rockets last night, but now they have the tough task of going into San Antonio and facing the red-hot Spurs. The Rockets held their ground in the first half of last night’s game, but they just ran out of energy in the third quarter, which is normal for a team playing on a back-to-back scenario. Now the Nuggets are in the same boat, facing one of the elite teams in the NBA, so I’m curious to see how they respond. So far this season it hasn’t been that big of an issue, with them going 9-5 SU in 14 such games. However, they’re only 1-4 SU in 5 meetings with the Spurs and have covered only once in the last 6 against them.

Since the beginning of February, the Spurs have lost only once in 17 games, which makes them the best team in the league right now. This past week has seen Victor Wembanyama shift into a new gear, as he’s lead the team in scoring in 4 consecutive games averaging over 30 per game. He’s listed as ‘day-to-day’ here due to a minor ankle issue, but with enough time to rest in between games, I do not believe that’ll be an issue. San Antonio actually won the first meeting of the season between these two sides without Wemby, getting 35 points from Devin Vassell and a balanced effort overall with 7 players scoring in double figures.

San Antonio is the team to beat right now in the NBA. They’ve not yet given up on the top seed in the West with the OKC Thunder being just 2.5 games ahead. Playing a team that’s on a 2nd night of a back-to-back, you just have to like their chances here. Spurs also have the superior head-to-head track record in recent meetings, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt here and lay the points.

Nuggets vs Spurs Predictions: San Antonio Spurs -5.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.