College Basketball Picks

The San Jose State Spartans (6-17, 1-11 Mountain West) travel to the Thomas & Mack Center to take on the UNLV Rebels (11-12, 6-6 MWC) in a matchup in which the Spartans will look to stay competitive as double-digit underdogs. San Jose State has struggled throughout conference play, averaging 69.6 points per game while shooting just 39.6% from the field, and the Spartans are 1-9 over their last 10 games, scoring only 63.4 ppg during that stretch. Offensively, Colby Garland has been the clear bright spot, averaging 18.4 points per game on 48.8% shooting, while Melvin Bell Jr. has added 11.7 ppg over the last 10 games. San Jose State ranks ninth in the Mountain West in offensive rebounds (8.9 per game), with Yaphet Moundi providing activity on the glass, but inefficiency and limited scoring depth have kept the Spartans from closing games.

UNLV enters with a more balanced profile, averaging 78.8 points per game and relying on perimeter scoring and home court consistency, posting a 7-4 record at the Thomas & Mack Center. The Rebels recently edged Grand Canyon 80-78, led by a 29-point performance from Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, and they rank sixth in the MWC in rebounding at 32.6 rpg with Howard Fleming Jr. pulling down nearly 10 rebounds per game. However, UNLV’s defense has been leaky of late — allowing 82.7 points per game over the last 10 contests and opening the door for opponents to hang around. If San Jose State can capitalize on second-chance opportunities, slow the pace and avoid extended scoring droughts, they have a path to keeping this game closer than expected. With UNLV’s recent defensive inconsistency and San Jose State’s ability to grind through Mountain West games, the points carry value.

San Jose State vs UNLV prediction: San Jose State +12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +11.5.

Bet like a Caesar with this AMAZING new customer offer from Caesars Sportsbook. If you bet just $1, you’ll receive DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS on your next 20 bets! Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PWCONTENT20X, where you can bet on our San Jose State vs UNLV picks.

Tuesday’s Big 12 action takes us to Waco, where the BYU Cougars face the Baylor Bears. There will be plenty of stars in this game, including several future first-round picks on both sides. BYU comes into the game riding a nasty losing streak. The Cougars have lost 4 in a row and 5 of 6, although aside from a road loss to Oklahoma State those losses have all come against the elite teams in the conference. Baylor, on the other hand, has been playing much better lately — winning 2 of 3 and giving Iowa State a scare on the road last Saturday. Most people will be surprised at this line; I think it is suspicious. I am playing Baylor +3.5.

This line feels like a trap. Lots of eyebrows will raise today as folks see this line, and so far roughly 80% of bettors have started grabbing the BYU side. That’s not surprising given how poorly Baylor has played this season. There is talent in Waco, though, especially on the offensive side. The issues for Baylor are that it has no inside presence. The Bears are terrible on the glass and they play a very short rotation — things that BYU should be able to exploit. But BYU has had real problems lately, too. The Cougars are allowing teams to score at will, especially from deep, and they almost always take the first half off — leaving themselves a hill to climb in the second half. Every road game in the Big 12 is a tough one, and it feels like the books are baiting us to take the Cougars. I’m going to go the other way and find out why.

BYU vs Baylor prediction: Baylor +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Bet like a Caesar with this AMAZING new customer offer from Caesars Sportsbook. If you bet just $1, you’ll receive DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS on your next 20 bets! Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PWCONTENT20X, where you can bet on our BYU vs Baylor picks.

This is a classic situational spot where emotion, not talent, influences the scenario. North Carolina is coming off the kind of game that can drain a team mentally and physically. The Tar Heels delivered the “shot heard around the world” over the weekend, rallying from a double-digit deficit and winning at the buzzer in Chapel Hill via a Seth Trimble 3-pointer against arch-rival Duke. The Heels never led until the final sequence. Subsequently, the crowd stormed the floor and the celebration carried the energy of UNC winning a national title. Now comes the difficult part: turning the page in just a few days and heading on the road.

That’s a tough ask, especially against a Miami team that’s better than its national profile suggests. The Hurricanes are unranked, but they are sitting at 18-5 and have been excellent at home — going 12-2 on the season. Add 4 points to Miami’s output and they are undefeated on their own floor as the 2 losses came by a combined 3 points. Meanwhile, North Carolina has been inconsistent away from Chapel Hill, hovering at .500 in true road games. This sets up as a textbook letdown spot. Emotional highs are often followed by flat starts, and Miami has the scoring and experience to take advantage if the Tar Heels don’t match early intensity. The line itself reflects caution toward the favorite, signaling vulnerability. With home strength, situational edge and motivation for a signature win, the ‘Canes are positioned to capitalize.

North Carolina vs Miami prediction: Miami ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Now you can bet any of our North Carolina vs Miami predictions at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer to take advantage of. If you sign up for FanDuel right now, you earn a welcome bonus worth up to $200 if your first $5 bet wins! Use this link 🔗 to join FanDuel right now and learn more.

Tuesday brings us a huge clash in the Big Ten, as the Nebraska Cornhuskers host the Purdue Boilermakers. Nebraska sits at 10-2 in conference play with recent losses to Illinois and Michigan. Purdue is 9-3 and its losses have all been recent — to Illinois, at Indiana and at UCLA. If either team hopes to run down the mighty Michigan Wolverines, they cannot afford a loss in this key spot. Nebraska has been a fun story this season, and I am glad to see lines lately that reflect how good this team really is. But I do think Purdue is a matchup problem for Nebraska, and even in a very difficult and underrated road venue, the Boilers will come away with the win. Take the points if you want, but I am playing Purdue on the money line.

Nebraska is a good team, but not a complex one. The Cornhuskers’ whole thing comes down to shooting the 3 ball, which they do as well as anyone in the nation. The problem in this matchup is that Purdue defends the 3 really well. Purdue allows teams to shoot 3s, but its opponents’ shooting percentage is bottom 15 in the country. That means the Boilermakers are forcing teams into bad 3s, often late in the possession. If Nebraska isn’t hitting those outside shots, Purdue should mop up the boards at a lopsided clip. Indeed, Purdue scores a ton of points because of their ability to rebound on the offensive side. I think those two factors will make the difference — Purdue will tamp down the Huskers’ outside shooting, and Purdue will control the glass. That should give them a shot at the mild road upset.

Purdue vs Nebraska prediction: Purdue ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Purdue vs Nebraska predictions.

The Marquette Golden Eagles will hit the road for Philadelphia to play the Villanova Wildcats on Tuesday after securing a 15-point home win over Butler on Saturday. The Eagles have been playing better of late, at least at home, where they have won 3 games in a row. However, they have yet to win a game away from Fiserv Forum – road or neutral. Meanwhile, Villanova has won 3 straight and 7 of 9 since the turn of the calendar year, as it sits 9-3 in Big East play – just 2 games behind leaders UConn and St. John’s. These teams met once already this year, in what was a 76-73 Villanova win at Marquette.

Marquette has picked it up offensively of late, sitting in the 75th percentile in offensive rating and in the 93rd percentile in effective field-goal percentage over the last 5 games. However, to put more context to that, 3 of those games came against the bottom 2 defenses in the conference. Villanova is not that. In fact, the Wildcats are in the 84th percentile in defensive rating over their last 5 games, as well as top 4 in the Big East in efficiency and effective field-goal percentage allowed. 

The Wildcats have great momentum right now, surpassing offensive expectations in 4 consecutive games and in 5 straight defensively. This team is very good defensively in transition, as well as against perimeter cuts and attack-and-kick sets, which are 3 areas Marquette loves to score offensively. These schematic advantages for Villanova, in tandem with Marquette’s road woes, make me lean to the home team. For what it’s worth, Marquette averages just 69 points per road game – 11 points fewer than they average at home – and carries just a 47.1% effective field-goal percentage in those games away from home. On the other end, they surrender 83.5 points per game on the road – 11.2 points more than at home – while giving up a 56% effective field-goal percentage. The Wildcats should take advantage of that on both ends. 

Marquette vs Villanova prediction: Villanova -9.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -10. 

You can bet on our Marquette vs Villanova pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

The Wisconsin Badgers will travel to Champaign on Tuesday night for a Big Ten game against the Illinois Fighting Illini. There are 7 or 8 league games left for these programs and they have established themselves as top-tier teams in the conference. Illinois is coming off a loss to Michigan State on Saturday night but still has a chance to win the conference, being just 1 game back of the Michigan Wolverines. I expect the Illini to be motivated following their first loss since December and cover the spread.

The spread is currently set at 12 points in favor of Illinois and that is my best bet. I do not believe Wisconsin’s defense will be good enough to stop the Illini’s powerful offense. Illinois boasts the top-ranked offense per KenPom and has numerous weapons that can beat you. According to Bart Torvik, Wisconsin’s defense is ranked #72 in adjusted defensive efficiency — while Illinois offense is ranked #2 in adjusted efficiency since January 1. The Badgers’ offense is solid, but I do not see it being good enough to keep up in this spot.

Wisconsin vs Illinois: Illinois -12 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -12.5.

You can bet on our Wisconsin vs Illinois pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $300 in bonus bets instantly if your first $5 wager is a winner! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

Where is Duke’s head right now? That’s the central question in this matchup, and the recent emotional swing matters. Just days ago, the Blue Devils suffered a crushing loss at North Carolina, where the Tar Heels rallied from a double-digit deficit and won on a near buzzer-beater after never leading until the final moment. The aftermath carried enormous major emotional weight. That kind of finish doesn’t just show up in the box score; it lingers. Now Duke has to quickly reset and hit the road for a game that profiles as a classic sandwich spot. On deck is a high-profile matchup Saturday in Durham against a ranked Clemson team, a game that will command far more internal focus. It’s human nature for attention to drift toward what’s next while dwelling on what has already been.

That’s where Pittsburgh becomes dangerous. Philosophical positions aside, the Panthers’ 9-15 record won’t intimidate anyone, but at home they have shown the ability to be physical, scrappy and energized — especially when a blue blood comes to town. Underdogs in this role often treat the game like a measuring stick. Add in a potentially flat favorite spotting what is assuredly an inflated number, and the value is clear with the Panthers. Duke should win, but doing so at this margin is the concern.

Duke vs Pittsburgh prediction: Pittsburgh +17 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Now you can bet any of our Duke vs Pittsburgh predictions at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer to take advantage of. If you sign up for FanDuel right now, you earn a welcome bonus worth up to $200 if your first $5 bet wins! Use this link 🔗 to join FanDuel right now and learn more.

The Houston Cougars will play the second game in their mountain trip when they meet the Utah Utes on Tuesday in Salt Lake City. Houston comes into this game a winner of 4 straight and just a half-game behind Arizona in the conference standings after they it care of BYU 77-66 in Provo on Saturday, holding the blue Cougars to 1.12 points per possession on 42% shooting inside the arc and 36% shooting beyond it. Meanwhile, Utah sits at the bottom of the Big 12 standings with a 1-9 conference record, having lost 5 straight games — the most recent one at Kansas 71-59. 

There’s not much to like about this Utah squad. The Utes are dead last in the Big 12 in adjusted defensive efficiency, as well as bottom 3 in most other defensive metrics according to KenPom. They aren’t much better offensively, either, sitting 11th in the conference in adjusted efficiency and effective field-goal percentage, 12th in offensive rebounding rate and dead last in 2-point percentage  — which is noteworthy because the Utes don’t shoot a ton of threes. They operate mostly through rim attacks, attack-and-kicks, inside-outs and in transition, but unfortunately for them, the Cougars are in the 94th percentile or better defensively against all of those sets. 

On the other end of the floor, Houston has been a juggernaut — finding most success attacking the rim, in transition and in the mid-range. Utah is dreadful defensively in those 3 areas, sitting in just the 18th percentile against rim attacks, ninth percentile against mid-range shots and 38th percentile in transition defense. Houston should cruise.

Houston vs Utah prediction: Houston -16.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -17. 

Bet like a Caesar with this AMAZING new customer offer from Caesars Sportsbook. If you bet just $1, you’ll receive DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS on your next 20 bets! Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PWCONTENT20X, where you can bet on our Houston vs Utah picks.

Tuesday’s Big 12 matchup sends the #5 Iowa State Cyclones (21-2) on the road to face the TCU Horned Frogs (14-9) in Fort Worth, with the total set at 147.5. Iowa State has been one of the nation’s most efficient teams, posting a massive +481 scoring differential while averaging 85.9 points per game (21st nationally) and holding opponents to just 65.0 ppg (16th nationally). While the Cyclones knock down 9.1 3-pointers per game, their identity remains defense first, forcing turnovers and limiting clean looks in the half court. On the road, Iowa State’s offensive output dips noticeably to 77.2 ppg away from Ames, but their defensive intensity has remained consistent, a key factor in keeping road games tightly controlled. TCU averages 78.9 points per game on the season while allowing 72.0 ppg, and their offense has cooled recently, scoring 77.1 ppg over the last 10 games, reinforcing the expectation of a more measured pace.

Betting trends further support a lower scoring profile. Iowa State road games are 5-1 to the under this season, and when listed as favorites, Cyclone games are 9-5 to the under, showing a clear tendency toward controlled tempo and defensive execution. TCU has the athleticism to push pace in spurts, but inconsistent perimeter shooting has prevented sustained scoring runs against high-level defenses. Iowa State’s ability to dictate possessions, contest shots and force difficult looks late in the shot clock often drags opponents into grind-it-out games in the 130s and low 140s. With both teams allowing well below the 147.5 total on average and Iowa State’s road and favorite trends aligning with their defensive metrics, this Big 12 clash profiles as a methodical contest.

Iowa State vs TCU prediction: Under 147.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 146.5.

You can bet on our Iowa State vs TCU pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $300 in bonus bets instantly if your first $5 wager is a winner! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.