NBA Picks

Just 4 days after their encounter in Atlanta, the Hawks and Hornets run it back one more time to wrap up their 4-game regular season series. The Hawks face an uphill battle in this one with Jalen Johnson seemingly ruled out with a knee issue. Newly acquired former Warriors Jonathan Kuminga is yet to feature for them, his debut is expected to happen after the All-Star break. However, with everyone below the 10th seed in the East basically tanking, the Hawks are pretty much locked into a play-in tournament spot this way or the other.

The 9-game win streak of the Hornets is no more after a tough loss against Detroit on Monday, in a heated game between the East leading Pistons and the 10th seeded Hornets. It’s unclear how many players will get suspended on the Charlotte roster, but I feel like they’ve been playing so well lately that even if both Diabate and Bridges are suspended they should still be winning this game. They’ve covered in 10 of 13 meetings, including 4 of the last 5 in Charlotte.

Jalen Johnson means so much to this Hawks team, without him they’re just 1-5 SU this season and their point differential in those games is a -71 in those 6 games. Charlotte has been a well-oiled machine pretty much since 2026 started, I’ll be backing them to get the job done here.

Hawks vs Hornets prediction: Hornets -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Context matters, you’ve heard us say that before. This is about reading the number more than anything else. Just two days ago, these teams played in Orlando and the under cashed at 218.5 in a game that landed at 217—exactly the defensive script the market expected. Normally after a low-scoring result, you’d expect the total to come down or at least hold steady. Instead, the market moved the other way.

That’s significant because oddsmakers aren’t reacting to the final score. They’re pricing in the next game environment. Back-to-back matchups between the same teams rarely play out identically. Coaches adjust, shot profiles shift, and even small tactical changes can add efficiency without changing the overall pace or physical tone. Orlando can still make this a rock fight but we only need another basket from either team to get home. This total doesn’t require a dramatic shift. If either team finds one more clean possession, a few additional free throws, or a slight bump in shooting quality, the over clears. Even if the game remains physical and half-court oriented, the margin between Monday’s result and tonight’s number is thin. When the line rises after an under result, it’s a clue. We don’t need a shootout here, just marginal offensive improvement. We’re betting on it.

Bucks vs Magic prediction: Over 220.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 221.

In their last game before the All-Star break, the Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the 14-win Washington Wizards. The Cavaliers will be looking to win their fourth straight game, while the Wizards will be looking to avoid their fourth loss in their last five games. Both teams will be missing key players heading into this game. The Cavaliers will be without Evan Mobley, Max Strus, and Dean Wade, while the Wizards have Anthony Davis, Kyshawn George, and Bilal Coulibaly sidelined with injury. The main attraction towards this game will be that it is the third game Cleveland has played with both James Harden and Donovan Mitchell. The duo has been exceptional in their first two games, averaging a combined 56 points per game between the two guards. Harden and Mitchell will be looking to put together another excellent offensive performance tonight. This will be the third time that Cleveland has played against Washington. The Cavaliers won both of the two previous games. In both previous matchups, Cleveland put a large number on the scoreboard. They scored 148 points against Washington back on November 7th, and they scored 130 points on December 12th. The Cavaliers have been blazing hot offensively heading into the break. They have shot north of 50% from the field in three of their last four games, while the Wizards have allowed more than 125 points scored in three of their last four games. It is a recipe for the Cavaliers to have another offensive outburst on the home floor with a long weekend on the horizon. 

Over 240 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

With 5 losses in a row and their best player Josh Giddey out for a while now, there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel for the Chicago Bulls. They also traded away a couple of core players from their roster, signaling that they are turning their attention to tanking for the remaining couple of months of this season. You can’t really blame the Bulls front office for doing this, they’ve been stuck in mediocrity for a while now, getting better through the draft seems to be their best option of getting better, at least in the long run. In the short term, they face the might Celtics on the road on Wednesday with the regular season series tied at 1-1. Getting a result at TD Garden will be tough, they’ve won just once in 7 visits.

I was very disappointed with the performance of the Celtics on Super Bowl Sunday as they laid an egg at home against the Knicks who were demolished by Detroit the night before. Everyone expected a performance from the Celtics given their excellent play on the defensive end as of late, but the three-ball let them down big time. The good news is this is a game against the 30th ranked team in the NBA in terms of opponent three-point percentage – the Bulls are allowing 37.5% of threes to go in this season, over their last 3 games that number is at a whopping 45.7%.

Nikola Vucevic faces his former team just two games into his Celtics career and you just know he’ll be fired up to get one over his former teammates. Boston is the clear cut favorite here, all the shots they missed against the Knicks are going in this time around. I’m counting on them to beat the unmotivated Bulls.

Bulls vs Celtics prediction: Celtics -14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Playing one of your Conference rivals on a 2nd night of a back-to-back isn’t ideal for the Knicks, especially if Mitchell Robinson isn’t ready to play here. Him missing the Pacers game is a good thing as it gave him added time to recover from the ankle injury that’s been bothering him, he’s in for a tough night battling down low with Joel Embiid. After the two initial defeats to Philadelphia at home, the Knicks responded with a big win in Philly in the final week of January, it’ll be extra important to win Wednesday’s game, because the 76ers lead it 2-1. New York has the edge with 7 wins in 10 meetings, I am looking directly at Jalen Brunson to carry them here. He’s averaged 31.2 points per game in the last 5 meetings, going over 30 in 4 of them.

Philadelphia also disappointed a lot of fans in their final game of the West coast road trip, losing to the Portland Trail Blazers by double digits. I have to say I expected a lot more from Maxey and co., given the recent form they’ve been in. Embiid opted not to play in that game, you just never know when the big fella will be feeling good and ready to go and that’s a huge stumbling block for bettors this season. Coming back home on a cross country flight could leave a mark on the team here, as they look to get acclimated to their old surroundings following a lengthy trip on the other side of the country.

Despite the Knicks being 4-4 SU in back-to-backs I still feel like they’re the better team here. It’ll all depend on Mitchell Robinson though, if he plays then I feel very comfortable backing New York to cover. KAT alone cannot deal with Embiid in the paint, if Embiid decides to play that is. With all that said, I think the Knicks are the better bet here.

Knicks vs 76ers prediction: Knicks +2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The total implies a game where offense barely shows up, and that’s hard to buy when both teams have natural scoring paths that don’t require perfect shooting. Houston plays physically, attacks the rim, and creates extra chances with second efforts. These are traits that raise a team’s scoring floor because they generate free throws and second-chance scores when jumpers aren’t falling.

For the Clippers, the key is that their offense doesn’t need to be explosive, it just needs to be functional. Fortunately, they have some weapons in not just Kawhi Leonard but also in Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin who can hit from long-range. If anyone of the three catch fire, the under is in peril. That’s what makes a 200’s total fragile. For us to cash in under the over, we are not asking for a shootout. All that is required is for both teams to reach normal efficiency ranges. If Houston gets downhill and the Clippers answer with enough perimeter creation, the price becomes a modest bar that can be easily cleared.

Clippers vs Rockets prediction: Over 208.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 209.

A total in the high 230s usually implies a track meet or elite offensive efficiency. The match-up overall is not conducive towards that idea. Minnesota’s defense is built to take away easy points and force opponents to score through layers. That tends to create stretches where the shot attempts are there, but the quality isn’t, and Portland will have to find a breakthrough to get the over in position.

The Wolves’ ideal game is: defend without fouling, rebound to end possessions, and run selectively. That “selectively” part matters. Minnesota doesn’t need to sprint every time; they can win by controlling the middle of the game with defense, then choosing when to push. If they get a lead, as the significant spread suggests that they will, then they’re even less incentivized to trade quick shots. Portland’s best chance to contribute to an over is either hot shooting or living at the line. The problem is Minnesota isn’t kind in allowing either. Minnesota’s defense dictating the terms in their own barn has all the makings of a game that stays under a very lofty price like the one we are seeing posted here. Take the under.

Trail Blazers vs Timberwolves prediction: Under 238.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.