NBA Picks

The hopes of a deep Lakers playoff run are crumbling right before our eyes. Luka Doncic just suffered a Grade 2 hamstring injury in the loss to the Thunder the other day, which rules him out for the remainder of the regular season. On top of that, their 2nd-leading scorer Austin Reaves will also be out for Sunday’s game against the Mavericks, as he deals with an oblique injury. LA opened as a 6.5 point favorite without Luka, but with Reaves out, that number is down to just 1.5 points despite them winning all 3 meetings with the Mavs in convincing fashion this season.

The Mavericks go into this game with no pressure whatsoever. Their season is pretty much in the books; the only thing left to see if Cooper Flagg can win the Rookie of the Year award. He’s improved his case with a historic 51-point performance in the loss to Orlando the other day. Another big game and a win over the Lakers would help him even more . To say that this team hasn’t had much success in home games lately would be an understatement, as the Mavs have lost 14 games in a row at American Airlines Center. They are also just 2-16 SU in 18 games vs Western Conference opponents and have covered the spread only 5 times in 15 games.

Without Doncic and Reaves, the Lakers have to somehow make up for 66.8 points here, which is what those players average combined. They had 2 days to come up with a gameplan, and head coach JJ Redick said that the team will have a practice before Sunday’s game, just so they can get a feel for each other with their top two scorers out of the lineup. It’s a tricky situation for the Lakers, one that I am not 100% sure they can overcome. Dallas has only 1 more home game left after this one, so I think they gift their fans with one more win before the regular season is over. I’m taking Dallas to win outright here.

Lakers vs Mavericks Predictions: Dallas Mavericks ML (+100) at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

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After losing their last 2 games, the Los Angeles Clippers will travel to take on the Sacramento Kings. Those defeats both came on their home court, as they lost 114-104 against the Trail Blazers and 118-99 against the Spurs. The Clippers are currently the #9 seed in the Western Conference and are only a half game behind the Trail Blazers. The difference between the #8 and the #9 seed is that the #9 seed needs to win an additional play-in game to get a spot in the postseason. The Clippers understand the importance of each game down the stretch, especially after they dropped a recent game against the Trail Blazers.

The Kings sit near the bottom of the Western Conference with only 21 wins, but they have won their last 2 games against the Raptors and the Pelicans. It is only the 5th time this season that Sacramento has won 2 straight games. The Kings have only extended their winning streak to 3 games once in those 5 opportunities. The Kings have a plethora of injuries, including Russell Westbrook, Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, De’Andre Hunter, and Keegan Murray. DeMar DeRozan is still playing for the Kings, but he has seen limited minutes as the team is trying to lose games. The Clippers are 39-38 against the spread this season, while the Kings are only 33-45. I like the Clippers in a bounce back spot tonight. The Clippers are relatively healthy and are the better team in almost every category. If they want to avoid the extra play-in game, they understand this is a game they need to win.

Clippers vs Kings prediction: LA Clippers -12.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable to -13.

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Stephen Curry will be back on the floor for the first time since January 30 when the Golden State Warriors host the Houston Rockets on Sunday night. Curry has been sidelined for more than 2 months with a knee injury, so you can’t expect him to immediately be back to any level resembling 100 percent. His minutes will likely be restricted — and they also might not be overly effective. As such, my Rockets vs Warriors prediction is Houston -3.5. The Warriors are 4-11 in their last 15 outings and head into this one on a 3-game losing streak. Even with Curry they were 2-3 in their last 5 games. Head coach Steve Kerr’s crew is locked into the 9-vs-10 game in the Western Conference play-in tournament, so there is nothing at stake at this point — other than getting Curry some reps before the postseason.

Houston, on the other hand, will be playing with urgency. It is currently fifth in the West and could drop to #6 or climb as high as #3. The Rockets are on a 5-game winning streak and have won all of those contests by at least 6 points, including 4 by double-digits. Even more importantly, not a single player on the entire roster has any kind of injury designation. This line is too deflated by Curry’s return and the Warriors playing at home; the Rockets should be more sizable favorites.

Rockets vs Warriors prediction: Houston Rockets -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.

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The Phoenix Suns will travel Sunday afternoon to take on the Chicago Bulls in the midst of a 2-game losing streak. They lost 115-111 in Orlando and 127-107 in Charlotte against the Hornets. With 5 games remaining in the season, the Suns currently sit 4 games back of the Minnesota Timberwolves and #6 seed in the Western Conference. It is not likely the Suns will be able to catch Minnesota, but if the Suns have any hope of getting out of the play-in, they would need to win the remainder of their games. The Bulls will be a good team to start against. Chicago has lost their last 5 games, and they are 4-23 in their last 27 games.

Josh Giddey is questionable to play in this game with a hamstring injury. Giddey leads the Bulls in points, rebounds and assists this season. The Bulls are 8-15 this season when Giddey is out of the lineup, and they average 114.7 points per game in those contests. The good news for Chicago is that Collin Sexton is listed as probable. Sexton had a 30-point game the last time he played against Phoenix.

Whether Giddey is in the lineup or not today, this game is a good bounce back spot for Phoenix. The Suns have been trustworthy all season against the spread. They are one of the league’s best with an against the spread record of 46-31, including 23-15 on the road. On the other the hand, the Bulls are tanking and want to lose games down the stretch. They are 35-41-1 against the spread, and they have failed to cover as home underdogs in 3 of their last 4 opportunities. I’ll take the Suns to win this game comfortably.

Suns vs Bulls prediction: Phoenix Suns -10 (-110) is available at the time of publishing. Playable to -11. 

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The Boston Celtics return home on Sunday and look to extend their current win streak to 3 games when they welcome the visiting Toronto Raptors to TD Garden. Boston is 9-2 across their last 11 games, dating back to March 14 and sit in second place in the Eastern Conference standings. Meanwhile, the Raptors are entangled in an awfully close seeding race between themselves, the Hawks, 76ers, Hornets, Magic, and Heat, with just 4 games of separation between the teams. Toronto currently holds the 6 seed but needs a few more wins to close out their season in order to avoid the play-in.

The Raptors are coming off a 32-point victory on Friday over the Memphis Grizzlies and their starters should be well-rested as nobody played over 30 minutes in that contest. The spread seems too large in this game, as the Celtics are slated as 9.5-point favorites against a Toronto team with much more to play for at this point in the season. Boston has the better team for sure, but they also just clinched a higher seed and I don’t see the motivation for them in this particular game. The Raptors have been a competitive team, even in their losses, and only lost by 8 points when they last played the Celtics in early January.

Raptors vs Celtics Prediction: Toronto Raptors +9.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Just yesterday, the Washington Wizards were in action against the Miami Heat in a game that combined for 288 points. While their game today is unlikely to reach similar heights, we should still have a high-scoring game in their clash against the Brooklyn Nets. This will be the 4th meeting between these teams this season, with 2 of them clearing the combined 230-point mark. That includes their last game in February, which saw them combine for 240-points. The Wizards are down in 28th over the last 10 games in defensive rating and have been giving up 125.5 points per game on the second night of back-to-backs. It should be a perfect opponent for the hosts to pick up their offensive production against.

One of the reasons that the Wizards have been involved in high scoring games is the tempo they set. Over the last 10 games, they are 4th in the league in pace. During that stretch they also allow more fast break points than any other NBA team. It is something the young Nets roster should be well positioned to exploit. The visitors should be able to able to do their part scoring wise, too. Over that same stretch, they are 11th in three-pointers made per game. With the Nets allowing teams to shoot 40.1% from deep during that time, it’s something the Wizards should be able to maintain here. Back the over.

Wizards vs Nets prediction: Over 230.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to over 231.5.

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The Indiana Pacers face the Cleveland Cavaliers on April 5th in a matchup between teams heading in very different directions. Indiana enters at 18-59 and has struggled throughout the season, particularly on the defensive end. The Pacers continue to play at one of the fastest paces in the league, which has contributed to high scoring games, but they allow 121.8 points per game, one of the highest marks in the NBA. Despite the record, Indiana still produces offensively, averaging 113.9 points per game with a system built on ball movement and transition scoring. Their recent games reflect this style, consistently pushing totals higher due to both pace and defensive breakdowns.

Cleveland enters at 48-29 and remains one of the more efficient offensive teams in the Eastern Conference, averaging 118.6 points per game while shooting at a high percentage from the field and three point range. Donovan Mitchell leads the offense with elite scoring ability, while James Harden provides consistent playmaking and perimeter creation. The Cavaliers have also trended toward higher scoring games recently, with their last five contests averaging 236.8 combined points. While Cleveland is more balanced defensively than Indiana, they have shown vulnerability in transition, which plays directly into the Pacers’ preferred style. Given Indiana’s pace and defensive struggles combined with Cleveland’s offensive efficiency, this matchup sets up as a favorable environment for scoring. With one team pushing tempo and the other capable of capitalizing efficiently, this projects as a high scoring game despite the disparity in records.

Pacers vs Cavaliers prediction: Over 240.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 242.

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With only 4 games left, the Charlotte Hornets still have a chance to move up in the East standings to the #6 seed. They’ve put together an impressive 3-game win streak, looking very sharp on the offensive end before their trip to Target Center. They’ve actually had a decent track record against the spread in this building, covering 4 times in their last 5 visits. With only Moussa Diabate on the injury report, there won’t be a lack of optimism on the Hornets’ part ahead of this game.

Minnesota has hit a bit of a rough patch lately, especially on offense, where they’ve scored just 87, 108 and 103 points in 3 of their last 4 games. The absences of Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are massive for them, as they don’t have much of a chance to make the Western Conference Finals without them.

The Timberwolves won the first meeting back in late October by 17 points, but so much has happened since that result that it’s hard to take anything from that game. The offense of the Hornets is too good right now. In order to beat this team, you have to bring your A-game on that end, and the Timberwolves are far from that at the moment. In case Ant Man does return here they’ll make it a close game, but in the end I think the Hornets are a better bet.

Hornets vs Timberwolves predictions: Charlotte Hornets -1.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.

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The Orlando Magic travel to face the New Orleans Pelicans in a matchup that projects as one of the higher scoring games on the slate. Orlando enters at 41-36, averaging 115.1 points per game while shooting 46% from the field. Paolo Banchero leads the team with 22.2 points and 8.6 rebounds, while Jalen Suggs adds 5.3 assists as a key facilitator. The Magic have shown a high offensive ceiling, including a 138-127 win over Dallas, and their previous meeting with New Orleans produced 246 total points in a 128-118 victory, highlighting the pace and scoring potential in this matchup.

New Orleans enters at 25-53 and continues to struggle defensively, allowing 120.0 points per game while scoring 115.5. Trey Murphy leads the offense with 22.0 points per game, providing consistent perimeter production. Recent games have trended high scoring, including a 117-113 loss to Sacramento and a 134-102 loss to Houston, both showing defensive breakdowns and fast tempo. With Orlando’s offensive efficiency and New Orleans’ defensive issues combined with their ability to still score, this matchup sets up as a fast paced, high scoring environment.

Magic vs Pelicans Prediction: Over 236.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 237.5

The best team in the Western Conference will play the worst team in the West when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Utah Jazz on Sunday. As expected, the Thunder are heavy favorites in this game against the tanking Jazz. The Thunder have won their last 4 games and are 9-1 in their last 10 games. Oklahoma City is the current top seed in the West, and they are only 2.5 games above the San Antonio Spurs. With 5 games remaining in the season, the Thunder still need to win games down the stretch to secure their spot.

The Jazz have lost their 8 games and 3-18 in their last 21 games. They have been catching 16.5 points or more in their last 5 games. They covered in 3 of those games. They beat the spread twice against the Nuggets and once against the Cavaliers. Utah still lost all of those games, but the young core of Brice Sensabaugh, Ace Bailey, and Kyle Filipowski have had enough fight in them down the stretch against playoff teams to cover these large spreads.

A recent trend that has paid for Utah in this stretch has been the over, which has hit in 6 of their last 8 games. The Jazz have averaged 115.3 points per game in their last 8 games. An offense that has gotten up and down being paired with a defense that ranks 2nd-to-last in defensive rating has resulted in a high number of points. On top of that, the over has hit in 4 of the Thunder’s last 5 games. This is only the 3rd time this season a total for a Thunder game has been 239 or higher. In both the previous games, the over cashed. With the spread being so high, I’ll side with the over in this contest.

Jazz vs Thunder prediction: Over 239 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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