NBA Picks

Expert NBA picks throughout the 2025/26 season. We crunch the numbers, analyze the data, and provide free NBA expert picks every day. You can trust our experienced NBA handicappers to find all the key betting trends and make NBA picks you can trust all season long.

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7:40 PM ET

Today

Amazon Prime Video

Bucks

Thunder

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Point Spread Pick

MIL Bucks +13.0(-115)

Reasoning

Even if the Thunder control the game early, there’s little incentive to push margin late. These pre-break environments often produce quieter second halves, where favorites protect legs rather than extend leads. That’s where large underdogs gain value. Milwaukee, meanwhile, enters with a different mindset. A team struggling for form often treats matchups against elite opponents as a measuring opportunity. With nothing to protect and little external expectation, the Bucks can play freer, extending rotations but still competing for meaningful minutes. The key risk in laying big numbers isn’t who wins, it’s how the final stages unfold. If Oklahoma City is ahead comfortably, the bench-heavy stretch opens the door for a classic backdoor cover. This is strictly about the natural risk of laying a heavy number in a pre-break spot. Grab the points in this one.

Bucks vs Thunder prediction: Bucks +13 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Player Points Pick

Chet Holmgren under 19.5(-125)

Reasoning

Chet Holmgren has hardly been lighting up the box scores of late with his scoring. In his last 9 outing he is averaging 16 points per game, not hitting the 20-point mark in any of his last 6 outings. His playing time could be limited too if this game is a blowout, which will limit his opportunities to bounce back. Over the last 10 games the Milwaukee Bucks are 25th in net offensive and defensive rating so might have little to offer the Thunder. Their opponents did have 2 bigs in their starting lineup in their last game out, with Jericho Sims and Myles Turner on the floor. Either of these big men would be a tough and physical matchup for Holmgren. With that in mind, let’s take the under on Chet’s point prop.

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Same Game Parlay

Point Spread

MIL Bucks +13.0

Player Points

M. Turner (MIL) - 15+ pts

Player Threes Made

C. Holmgren (OKC) - 1+ threes

Reasoning

Bucks vs Thunder parlay pick: Milwaukee Bucks +13 over Oklahoma City Thunder (-110)

This isn’t a full endorsement of Milwaukee’s current form, but the spot creates value on the number. With the All-Star break approaching, this is the type of game where a team like Oklahoma City may naturally prioritize preservation over urgency. For a contender with its position largely secure, the focus shifts toward managing minutes, rotating deeper into the bench, and avoiding unnecessary wear on core players. That matters when the spread climbs to this range. Even if the Thunder control the game early, there’s little incentive to push margin late. These pre-break environments often produce quieter second halves, where favorites protect legs rather than extend leads.

That’s where large underdogs gain value. Milwaukee, meanwhile, enters with a different mindset. A team struggling for form often treats matchups against elite opponents as a measuring opportunity. With nothing to protect and little external expectation, the Bucks can play freer, extending rotations but still competing for meaningful minutes. The key risk in laying big numbers isn’t who wins, it’s how the final stages unfold. If Oklahoma City is ahead comfortably, the bench-heavy stretch opens the door for a classic backdoor cover. This is strictly about the natural risk of laying a heavy number in a pre-break spot. Grab the points.

Bucks vs Thunder SGP pick: Myles Turner to score 15+ points (+172)

Turner is one of the players on this Bucks roster that has really picked up the level of his play lately, resulting in Milwaukee going 4-1 SU over their last 5 games. In his last 9 appearances the former Pacer is averaging just shy of 16 points per game, a significant increase compared to his 12.9 per game average for the season. He’s excelled with his efficiency numbers as well, connecting on 52% of field goal attempts and on over 40% of his threes. His last 10 outings have seen him clear this line 5 times, with the highlight being the 31 points he dropped on the 76ers two weeks ago.

With the Thunder being one of the weaker three-point defending teams I think that gives Turner a solid chance to roam around the perimeter and knock down some threes. Let’s also not underestimate the revenge factor here – this will be Turner’s first game vs the Thunder since he lost Game 7 of the NBA finals with the Pacers in June of last year. I’m counting on him to perform.

Bucks vs Thunder SGP pick: Chet Holmgren 1+ made threes (-480)

Chet Holmgren had a relatively modest showing on Wednesday night, scoring just 13 points on 8 field goal attempts. The Suns didn’t need more from him as they plowed through Phoenix dominating the Suns 136-109. Only taking 8 shots leaves the Thunder big man with a lot of energy for a productive showing against the Bucks on Thursday. He and his counterpart Turner on the other side play a very similar style of play, I’m sure Holmgren will play with an extra edge to outplay the Bucks center here. He’s made at least one three in 3 consecutive meetings with the Bucks, in his last home game against this team he went for 22 and 9 rebounds in just 25 mins of play.

Milwaukee is one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending the perimeter – opponents are making almost 37% of shots from beyond the arc against them, so making a three shouldn’t be too difficult for Holmgren here. He’s cleared this line in 34 of 48 games so far, which comes out to a 71% success rate.

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9:10 PM ET

Today

KUNP, KJZZ

Trail Blazers

Jazz

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Game Totals Pick

Over 239.0(-110)

Reasoning

The Portland Trail Blazers (26-29) enter this matchup looking to rebound from a 133-109 loss to Minnesota, a game where turnovers (26) and defensive breakdowns proved costly. Jrue Holiday led with 23 points, while Scoot Henderson added 18, but Portland struggled to string together stops. The Blazers average 116.1 points per game on 45.8% shooting, yet they surrender roughly 118.0 PPG, highlighting the up tempo, offense first identity that often leads to inflated totals. They rank seventh in the league in rebounding, creating second chance opportunities that can quickly swing momentum. However, injuries and inconsistent wing production have made their defensive rotations unreliable, especially against teams willing to push pace.

The Utah Jazz (18-37) are coming off a convincing 121-93 win over Sacramento, shooting 54.7% from the field and hitting 15 threes in one of their most efficient outings of the season. Jaren Jackson Jr. scored 23 points, while Lauri Markkanen added 19, giving Utah balanced scoring and spacing. The Jazz have quietly increased their offensive rhythm in recent games, but like Portland, they rank near the bottom tier defensively and struggle containing dribble penetration and transition scoring. With both teams favoring quicker possessions and neither consistently slowing opponents, this sets up as a track meet. Given Portland’s scoring upside and Utah’s recent offensive surge, the ingredients point toward a high possession contest.

Trail Blazers vs Jazz prediction: Over 239 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 240.5.

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Vote on who will win!

10:10 PM ET

Today

Amazon Prime Video

Mavericks

Lakers

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Point Spread Pick

LA Lakers -7.0(-105)

Reasoning

With Cooper Flagg being ruled out for Thursday’s game in Los Angeles, the Mavericks are facing an uphill battle to be competitive. Despite the 8-game losing streak Flagg has been the motor of this team, carrying the offense on his back by both scoring the ball but also creating for others. How the team plays without him remains to be seen, in 4 such games the Mavericks have gone 2-2 this season. The Lakers have had their number in head-t-head meetings winning 5 of the last 6 teams, on the road this team is only 2-12 ATS in 14 outings.

LA waived the white flag of surrender even before their last game against San Antonio began. Head coach JJ Redick decided to rest all of his starters as it was a 2nd night of a back-to-back scenario, resulting in a 136-108 loss to the Wemby and the Spurs. With that being the 2nd loss in a row for LA, it’s important for them to bounce back with a win and go into the all-star break on a positive note. They’ve beaten the Mavs in both meetings earlier this season, with Luka Doncic going nuclear against his former team on both occasions. With the Slovenian superstar now out of the line-up, it’ll be up to Redick to come up with a successful gameplan surrounding someone else.

That someone else will likely be Austin Reaves who put up 38 points and collected 8 rebounds against the Mavs earlier his year. The Lakers swingman is back from injury and as time goes on he will start to look like the player who was averaging over 25 points per game before he went out with his calf issue. The Lakers playing at home should give them edge here, I’ll go with them to cover against a weakened Mavs squad.

Mavericks vs Lakers predictions: Lakers -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Player Points Pick

Naji Marshall to score 20+ points(+100)

Reasoning

With Cooper Flagg ruled out for the Dallas Mavericks, someone else will have to step up. Naji Marshall’s scoring has been up and down a bit lately, but he has managed 30 or more points in 2 of his last 3 games. He also averages 18.5 points per game against the Lakers this season, so he looks to be the man. The Lakers have questionable defenders on the wing, with Austin Reaves not being outstanding in that department and LeBron James being 41-years old. With increased usage, we could see another explosive performance from Marshall. The Lakers are 26th in opponent 3-point attempts per game. With the Mavericks forward starting off this month making 38.9% of his shots from deep, it should assist him to getting to the 20-point mark.

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Pickswise is the home of the best free basketball picks today, you can even check out our selections for the Best NBA Bets right now. Our expert basketball handicappers break down today’s matches to find you the best free basketball picks, We’ve also got expert advice for NBA Futures and how to bet on the NBA. A good basketball pick is a well-researched and fully informed one. Our experts crunch all the latest NBA News, team and player statistics, trends, history and rely upon decades of handicapping experience ahead of making each basketball pick.

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NBA Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against the Spread In The NBA?

Betting against the spread means to bet on the favourite to win by a certain amount of points or the underdog to win or lose by fewer than a certain amount.

Picks against the spread are popular amongst NBA bettors because they give more favorable odds for favorites and less risk when betting on an underdog.

NBA bets against the spread can be lucrative with some research, maybe the favorite has an injury, maybe the underdog has a strong match-up. Factors like these may not change who the winning team is but if you think it will change the margin of the victory NBA bets against the spread is where you can make it count.

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