NBA Picks

This is purely a numbers and profile play, and it starts with one simple question: why is Chicago laying this many points on the road? The Bulls have been unreliable away from home all season, posting a poor straight-up record of 11-27, while struggling to maintain consistency across four quarters. Their style doesn’t naturally support margin. Chicago relies heavily on scoring bursts, particularly from the perimeter, to create separation.

That’s a volatile way to cover a spread. If the three-point shooting isn’t there, Chicago’s offense can stagnate, and their defensive issues become more exposed. They are a team that can give points back just as quickly as they create them. Washington isn’t appealing, but that’s exactly why this number exists. In games like this, that can actually work in their favor. They don’t need to control the game, they just need to stay within range. When both teams come with their respective question marks, taking points becomes the sharper position. Chicago hasn’t shown it can consistently put teams away on the road, and there is enough potential scoring variance to allow Washington to stay competitive. Grabbing the points provides value as this is a tilt with upset potential.

Bulls vs Wizards prediction: Washington Wizards +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

This is driven primarily by Minnesota’s defensive identity and game script. The Timberwolves are heavy favorites here, which is key—not just for who wins, but how the game is likely to be played. When Minnesota is in control, they naturally slow tempo, prioritize half-court execution, and lean into their defensive structure. That immediately works against the number going over when we consider the state of the Pacers.

Indiana adds another layer to the Under case. They’ve been one of the more inconsistent offensive teams in the league, particularly against physical, disciplined defenses. When forced into structured possessions, their efficiency tends to drop, leading to scoring droughts that are difficult to recover from. Blowout dynamics also favor the Under. If Minnesota builds a lead, as expected, the game can flatten out late, with reduced pace, longer possessions, and less urgency offensively. That limits scoring upside in the second half. For this total to go Over, Indiana needs to contribute consistently, and Minnesota needs to maintain offensive pressure throughout. Both are questionable. With one team dictating tempo and the other struggling for consistency, this projects as a controlled game that lands Under.

Timberwolves vs Pacers prediction: Under 231.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 231.

The Milwaukee Bucks head to Barclays Center to meet the Brooklyn Nets at 7:30 p.m. ET. These are two teams already eliminated from playoff contention, but whether a team has something to play for, or nothing to play for, there is still money to be made on games like these. The Bucks roll in with covers in four of the past five games, and the Over has cashed in three in a row, and six of the past eight games. Milwaukee has scored at least 113 points in four of the past five games, too, including a 119-113 loss at Houston, and a 127-113 loss at home to the Los Angeles Clippers.

The Nets topped the equally inept Washington Wizards in a game somebody had to win, but they’re still just 2-12 SU in the past 14 games, while going a respectable 6-3 ATS. The Over has cashed in the past two games, with Brooklyn going for 114.0 points per game (PPG), while allowing 128.0 PPG in the span. As such, we’ll go with the Over for the total, as Brooklyn and Milwaukee aren’t exactly known for lockdown defense.

Over 220.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 222.

Last night’s loss in San Antonio by the Philadelphia 76ers gives the Charlotte Hornets now an opportunity to leap over them in the standings for the 7th seed. In order to achieve that though, they have to go into TD Garden and take down the Boston Celtics. LaMelo and co. have impressed with a 4-game win streak, scoring 120+ in 3 consecutive games, but I think we can all agree the Celtics are a different animal compared to the Nets, Suns, Pacers and Timberwolves. Charlotte has just 1 win in 8 meetings, while on the road in Boston they’ve won just twice in 17 visits. Coby White is the only potential absentee, the Hornets can base their optimism on their recent shooting from three-point land here. In their last 3 games they’ve knocked down 19, 24 and 18 threes.

The Celtics have been slightly less prolific from three-point land over their last 3 games, but they still won all 3 and are on a run of 8 wins in their last 10 outings. This team has exceeded expectations all season, but especially since Jayson Tatum came back. From an individual standpoint he has looked really solid, Boston fans are dreaming of another deep Playoff run and for good reason. They’ve also been a reliable bet lately, covering 6 times in their last 7 games, while against Eastern Conference opponents they’ve done it in 5 of 6 such games. Believe it or not there’s nobody listed on the injury report for this game, this is a rarity for any team at this point of the season, let alone the Celtics who played more than half of the year without their best player from last year.

This is a good test for both sides to see where they’re at in the final week of the regular season. Both meetings from earlier this year were blowout wins and on both occasions we saw the road team come out on top. I think it’s time we see a home win in this series, Boston has been reliable enough to warrant our trust here. Charlotte’s high octane offense will work on most nights, but on most nights in the NBA you face mediocre defenses these days. The Celtics are anything but mediocre on that end, let’s back them to come out on top here.

Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics Predictions: Celtics -5.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Fresh off their 35-point win over the Utah Jazz, the OKC Thunder are headed to Los Angeles for a date with the all of a sudden injury riddled Lakers. I’ll be the 4th meeting of the season between the two sides, OKC has won all 3 by a combined 81 points. So in theory they should be blowing the Lakers out again, right? There’s still no room for complacency as the number 1 seed still hasn’t been secured, a win her gets the defending champs an inch closer to achieving that goal. This team has won 9 in a row vs West opponents and is 5-1 ATS/SU in 6 meetings with the Lakers.

In their first game since Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves’ injuries the Lakers fell on the road to the lowly Dallas Mavericks. LeBron did his best with 30 points, 15 assists and 9 rebounds, and while he did gets some help from his teammates offensively, there was not much the Lakers could do about Cooper Flagg in that loss. We learned a lot from that loss on Sunday, moving forward LA will depend quite a lot on James to carry the offensive burden. The game in Dallas saw him record 117 touches total – his most in a game since 2021. Is that strategy sustainable moving forward for the 41-year old? I have my reservations about that, especially before a game against the defending champs.

I expect the Lakers to come out with a ton of energy here, the home crowd is their only hope of keeping this game reasonably close. But in the end the Thunder are just way better. Even with Jalen Williams out injured, they should run this team over. They’ve beaten them by more than 17 points twice already this season, the Lakers were in much better shape in both those losses compare to what we’ll get from them on Tuesday. I’m backing the Thunder to cover the big spread.

OKC Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers Predictions: Thunder -16 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.