NBA Picks

Philadelphia presents a stark talent and efficiency gap relative to Brooklyn, a team near the bottom of the league standings with limited roster depth and ongoing rebuild challenges. The 76ers boast the stronger all-around rosters, featuring elite scoring options and defensive personnel who will eat against a maligned Brooklyn offense that sits 30th in the league in scoring. Philly’s ability to control tempo and limit opponent transition scoring advantages them heavily in this spot. Brooklyn’s offense struggles against disciplined defensive schemes, often resulting in prolonged scoring droughts. We’ve seen this all season long.

Brooklyn also lacks enough dynamic shot creation to keep pace if Philly limits easy looks. Which again should not be entirely too difficult for the Sixers. The thing the market is looking for is the easy underdog that can pull the upset before Christmas. Perhaps, the Nets fit that profile from a distance but situationally this is anything but that.If Philadelphia builds a lead early, they won’t necessarily call the dogs off either. The Sixers can extend their margin through bench contributions and run this up. This matchup shapes up like a blowout scenario where the 76ers can win by double digits and cover a largerer spread than this one. Lay the points.

Nets vs 76ers prediction: 76ers -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10.

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Call it a lesser of two evils play, if one must, but a game like this one, is a 50/50 proposition. That makes the Wizards the value side before we go any further. Neither the Hornets nor the Wizards are good teams. They are two of the worst in the East and in a contest where a million different things can happen, taking the underdog to win perhaps is the most equitable venture. The market is overpricing home court advantage, win-loss records, and Charlotte’s. However, Charlotte’s upside doesn’t carry as much weight when defensive stops are scarce which is the Hornets’ true calling card.

This is the old “plug your nose” play. Charlotte is the definition of an unstable favorite. Washington is almost certainly undervalued here because of their hideous ATS record and their NBA worst win-loss record. The market have a load of skepticism, but the Wizards can exploit Charlotte’s weaknesses on the glass and in transition to not only stay under the number posted but win this outright. We’ll pass on the points and take the Wizards outright in a game that will certainly not be the marquee match-up on tonight’s slate.

Hornets vs Wizards prediction: Wizards ML (+185) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Let’s slow things down for a moment and look at everything for what it is worth. Who wouldn’t bet the Bucks here? By the struggles that Indiana has endured alone this season with a nicked-up roster and a subsequent poor record overall, doesn’t Milwaukee even without Giannis look like a piece of pie here? That’s the whole point. They aren’t.

Let’s also not stand on ceremony either. These two teams really don’t like each other. Indiana has had its woes all season long indeed but they get a rival at home before Christmas who is vulnerable. There are few opportunities that the Pacers will get like this perhaps all year and Indiana will certainly make the most of this early Christmas gift. The line looks really soft and for that reason alone the Pacers demand attention. This holds especially true with the Pacers losing by double digits yesterday at Boston and extending their skid to five games. Who wouldn’t want to fade Indiana and only have to spot a bucket while doing so? This is one of the most eerie lines on today’s menu and this is game where not only will Indiana win, but perhaps they will even dominate. Back the Pacers to feast.

Bucks vs Pacers prediction: Pacers ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Just when we thought the Toronto Raptors had turned a corner with two wins at Miami and Milwaukee, they proceeded to score 96 and 81 points in their next 2 games vs the Celtics and Nets. Something is definitely off with this team, bettors have been burned on them far too many times lately, they are just 2-10 ATS over their last 12 outings. Tuesday sees them head to South Beach for another date with the Miami Heat, the win recorded in the first meeting was only their first in 5 visits to Florida. Jakob Poeltl has been ruled out for this game, he recorded 8 points and 8 rebounds in the first meeting.

The situation around the Heat isn’t exactly the best either, to put it mildly. They’ve lost 7 of 8 games, covering just 4 times in 12 outings. This could be attributed to the fact that they’ve played just 3 of their 9 games in December at home, but for a team that started the year 14-8 SU it’s been a very disappointing month so far. The return of Tyler Herro from injury was supposed to enhance an already lethal offense, but instead the Heat have gone ice-cold from three-point land and are having issues scoring the ball at times. On Tuesday Herro will not play, maybe the offense can get going in his absence?

With both team struggling right now it’s tricky to get a good read on this game. The first meeting saw just 202 points total, that’s 26 points less than the projected number for Tuesday’s game. These two have combined to cash on the under in 11 of their last 13 games. Toronto has done that in 6 straight road games and in 10 of 15 for the season. I’ll back the under in this one.

Raptors vs Heat prediction: Under 228.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is about the dangers of following hype or overreacting; this is what happens when a market is shaped by narrative pricing. Denver’s name inflate their price here, especially after the Mavericks lost to the Pelicans yesterday. In fairness, we did warn you that the Dallas/New Orleans line looked very suspicious, but we digress. Nevertheless, bettors trust the Nuggets name-brand recognition and are selling hard on the Mavs. Both of these elements have collided in this spot. However, the Mavericks have demonstrated they can stay competitive with elite teams when they limit turnovers and make smart shots. Dallas has also demonstrated it can defend well and transition well without devolving into chaos. For Dallas, this is an opportunity to get right before Christmas Day and their trip to the Bay Area and foster a meaningful result against an elite opponent.

The Nuggets, by contrast, are in a huge look-ahead spot by here by default. A Christmas Day showdown looms with the Timberwolves and it’s very easy for Denver to look past the team that just clipped by the Pelicans. A Dallas team who is still playing losing basketball overall. The market is overpricing Denver because of their overall record and reputation, but lines should reflect matchup specifics, not headlines. Dallas can compete here, make no mistake. And we don’t need Dallas to win outright. We just need the Mavs make this a contested game. This spread is a clear overreaction to the Mavericks blemish yesterday and is further propped up by brand bias. Almost all of that leads to the market playing an overvalued side at an inflated number which is not a conducive strategy to cashing tickets. We would not be surprised if the Mavericks actually manage an upset but we’re happy to snag the bloated points.

Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction: Mavericks +7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation when they visit the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night. This is also the first leg of a home-and-home series between these 2 Western Conference powerhouses, with the second leg set for Christmas Day in Oklahoma City. Yes, that means the Thunder are playing 3 games in the span of 4 days — a stretch that began with Monday’s matchup against Utah. Tuesday’s showdown is also a rematch of the recent NBA Cup semifinals, won by San Antonio in a 111-109 thriller. All things considered, my Thunder vs Spurs pick is for the home side to cover. After all, this is a favorable spot for San Antonio given its rest, home-court advantage and confidence from its upset of OKC on Dec. 13 in Las Vegas.

Victory Wembanyama’s status is obviously a big factor. The 7’4” center is still working his way back from a calf injury that sidelined him for 12 games. He played in the NBA Cup but has logged more than 22 minutes only once in 5 games since returning (25 against New York in the NBA Cup final). Wembanyama is listed as day-to-day, but you have to think he is suiting up a massive matchup with the best team in the league. Oklahoma City’s lineup may be more of a question mark. Not only is it playing a back-to-back, but it surely wants to win at home on Christmas even more than it does on Tuesday in San Antonio. Will the Thunder really throw the kitchen sink at the Spurs in this situation? Whatever the case, 7 points are too many to give.

Thunder vs Spurs prediction: San Antonio +7 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Scoring just 88 points and losing by 15 to the Clippers in their last game was not a good look for the Lakers. Next up they’ll look to redeem themselves on Tuesday against the Phoenix Suns, but they’ll have to do it without Luka Doncic and Rui Hachimura. Austin Reaves has been upgraded to questionable; he has been out for a while with a calf issue. With all those issues JJ Redick is dealing with, he might be forced to rely on 40-year-old LeBron James to keep his team in the game. That has worked for stretches during this season, but you have to wonder what will happen against one of the more lethal shooting teams in the NBA.

Unlike the Lakers, Phoenix is doing a lot better on the injury front with just Grayson Allen being questionable to play here. They are pretty much used to playing without Jalen Green who has been out for a while with his hamstring injury. The duo of Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks is carrying the majority of the offensive load on their back as the Suns continue holding on to a play-in tournament spot. Bettors have made a lot of money off this team so far this season – over their last 20 games the Suns are 14-6 ATS while in home games they’re a very reliable 10-4 ATS.

I was very disappointed with the Lakers’ performance against the Clippers and now with the engine of the team out it’s really hard to justify backing them. On paper they have a respectable 12-4 SU record in road games, but they rank only 14th and 12th in offensive and defensive efficiency. They are 10-0 SU in clutch situations, but without Luka it might be an uphill battle to keep this one close. I’ll take the Suns.

Lakers vs Suns prediction: Suns -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This matchup strongly favors Houston because of structural advantages on both ends of the floor, not just the raw talent gap, as well. The Rockets are one of the league’s most physical and disciplined teams, particularly on defense. They defend the point of attack well, rebound aggressively, and consistently win the possession battle—three traits that are devastating against a Clippers team that struggles to generate efficient offense for long stretches.

The Clippers’ biggest issue is offensive sustainability. Possessions often stall into late-clock isolations or contested jumpers. Houston thrives in exactly those environments. Their perimeter defenders apply pressure without fouling, and their interior presence limits easy finishes. That forces the Clippers into inefficient shot profiles, which compounds over four quarters. Then there are the other inefficiencies on the other side. The Clippers’ defense struggles to contain strong downhill attacks like the Rockets makes this game that can easily get away from them. LA is also vulnerable on the glass here too, which Houston will consistently exploit. The confluence of these factors can translate into Houston building an early lead and never looking back. The tale of the tape is one team dictating terms against another that lacks answers. Houston doesn’t need a hot shooting night or anything crazy to cover this number easily. That’s our position.

Rockets vs Clippers prediction: Rockets -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Christmas Day at Madison Square Garden go together like peanut butter and jelly. The New York Knicks and the holiday spotlight are inseparable — and bettors pay a premium every time. That premium is clearly built into this number. The Cleveland Cavaliers once upon a time were short underdogs and have steadily drifted to a bigger price despite no dramatic shift in on-court matchup quality.

Yes, Cleveland has been a gross disappointment against the spread this season, and that inefficiency weighs heavily on perception. But inefficiency is also what creates opportunity. The Knicks’ ambitions, their NBA Cup win, and living annually in the Christmas Day spotlight has inflated the number next to their name before we go any further. If Cleveland were more profitable overall and more importantly if this game were played on a random January night, Cleveland would not be catching this type of price. The Cavaliers have the tools to compete here and win, not just cover. So we’ll approach it as such. We’ll go in for the kill here and take The Land outright to become Ebenezer Scrooge.

Cavaliers vs Knicks prediction: Cavaliers ML (+165) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Dallas Mavericks spent most of this market cycle as a +4.5 underdog, a number that reasonably reflected the matchup. The subsequent line moves aren’t about a sudden on-court downgrade — it’s about perception. Dallas hasn’t lived up to preseason hype, while the Golden State Warriors benefit from brand power, Christmas Day familiarity, and public trust.

That trust is misleading. Recent results show Dallas is far more competitive than their record suggests. They’ve beaten teams like Denver, Miami, Houston, and Detroit — clubs that are every bit more capable than this version of Golden State. The Warriors are no longer some untouchable juggernaut; they’re the chalk because they have the equity and casual appeal on this stage. When the market stretches a line based on narrative rather than matchup, value appears. Dallas can not only compete here, they can win outright. But we aren’t asking the Mavs to do that. With extra points added purely due to perception, grabbing the Mavericks is the sharp side.

Mavericks vs Warriors prediction: Mavericks +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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For much of the market cycle, the Los Angeles Lakers were positioned as short favorites, even as Houston surged early and the Lakers were hampered with injuries along with a sluggish start. Now, after both teams are playing winning basketball in the heart of the playoff race, but the market has flipped with Houston crossing over — and in doing so, handed value to the Lakers.

The Houston Rockets deserve credit. They’re a force on the glass and have the ability to stretch the floor. But the Lakers can match that. Both rosters feature Hall of Fame legends and clutch playmakers. This is a game that would be to close to call if it were a horse race. When a game profiles as a toss up, the prudent choice becomes simple: take the plus money. The Lakers were once favored in this spot, and now they’re available at an underdog price due to one-sided Rockets action rather than the match-up itself. That’s the definition of finding equity in the market. In games like this, price outweighs preference — and the Lakers are the right side in this situation.

Rockets vs Lakers prediction: Lakers ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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