NBA Picks

Recent Portland games have consistently leaned toward lower-scoring outcomes, and that trend isn’t accidental. The Blazers have tightened up defensively, emphasizing physicality in the half court and reducing the number of transition possessions their opponents are getting. Offensively, they are playing at a more methodical pace, as well, working deeper into the shot clock and prioritizing controlled sets over fast breaks. Fewer possessions plus stronger defensive discipline creates a natural environment for the number to stay under.

Dallas, meanwhile, has shown that its offense can stagnate. That often leads to stretches where the scoring dries up for several minutes at a time. Combine that with Portland’s rim protection and rebounding presence and it becomes difficult for Dallas to sustain efficient production. If both offenses are forced to grind through contested possessions rather than run freely, the pace slows and total scoring potential shrinks. I’m grabbing the under.

Mavericks vs Trail Blazers prediction: Under 234 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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Both teams profile more as offense-first than defensive grinders. The Bucks have been leaky on that end,  frequently giving up clean looks at the rim and from 3. Charlotte’s defense has been equally unreliable, with poor point-of-attack containment and inconsistent rim protection. The Hornets in particular are a bottom-third outfit in many key defensive categories. Neither team is elite at limiting fouls or defensive rebounds, so you get extra possessions and free-throw scoring boosts. This all lends to the over.

As I wrote in our best bets take, a mid-220s number doesn’t demand a track meet. One competitive game with normal pace and efficiency can push this over — if both teams produce their usual output. With 2 suspect defenses and enough offensive potency on the floor, the over is the best option on the board this evening. And then there is always the prospect of Milwaukee just lighting up Charlotte by enough points to get this over on its own, too. The over has multiple avenues to cash.

Bucks vs Hornets prediction: Over 228 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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Even with Mark Williams suspended, the Suns still bring a top-tier scorer in Devin Booker plus more overall talent and size than Washington. The Wizards are on a nice mini-run (2-game winning streak, better recent defense), but they are still just 7-23 and thin due to injuries to Kyshawn George, Corey Kispert and Cam Whitmore.

Washington’s improved defense has come mostly against weaker or disorganized offenses; Phoenix can punish the Wizards with Booker in high pick-and-roll, wing physicality (Dillon Brooks) and offensive rebounding. The Wizards’ offense still turns over the ball and can stagnate in the half court. Against a stronger, more physical Suns group, that often leads to long droughts and fast-break points the other way. Big spreads on the road are scary, but Phoenix’s path is straightforward: lean on talent, attack mismatches and keep Washington off the line. When all of the competitive edges are factored in: rebounding, shot selection, efficiency, turnovers and defense. Phoenix can and should roll.

Suns vs Wizards prediction: Phoenix -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

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The numbers that Nikola Jokic is posting these days almost seem unreal at times. He just had another monster 34 points, 21 rebounds and 12 assists in a losing effort as the Nuggets dropped a close one to Orlando. It wasn’t the best of ways to start off a 7-game road trip. Denver led by as many as 17 points in that one and was ahead for 74% of playing time. Allowing a team to come back like that isn’t something we’re accustomed to seeing from such an experienced roster like Denver’s, but here we are. Perhaps the Nuggets can get back on track against Miami. They’ve had the Heat’s number over the years, winning 11 straight games and covering the spread in 13 of 16 meetings overall and in 8 straight visits to Kaseya Center.

Following 2 wins over the Hawks and Pacers, can we really say that the Heat’s offensive struggles are behind them? Scoring 126 and 142 points is great, but I’d much rather see them do it against a top-tier defense. There is still so much doubt around this team, especially with Bam Adebayo potentially missing this game with a back issue. Tyler Herro has been ruled out due to a toe problem. This entire season has been one to forget from his perspective, as injuries have severely limited his playing time. The Heat haven’t been a very reliable team in home games lately, covering the spread just twice in 8 games.

The Nuggets won the first meeting fairly convincingly at the start of November, leading by as many as 17 points at one point. This game is all about them bouncing back and not allowing their road trip to get off to a 0-2 start. Miami just hasn’t been able to figure them out over the years and I’m afraid this won’t be the day they do it. Let’s go with Denver.

Nuggets vs Heat prediction: Denver -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Toronto Raptors return home on the second night of a back-to-back following an emotional overtime win against Golden State, highlighted by a historic performance from Scottie Barnes — who posted a rare 20/25/10 triple-double. While that win showcased Toronto’s ceiling, consistency remains an issue — particularly in fatigue spots. The Raptors have been one of the league’s stronger Under teams in this situation, going 5–1 to the Under this season when playing on no rest. That trend aligns with their tendency to slow the game down defensively when legs are heavy, often leading to reduced shooting efficiency and fewer transition opportunities. Injury uncertainty also plays a role, with Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett listed as day to day — potentially impacting Toronto’s interior offense and rim pressure.

Orlando enters the matchup dealing with significant rotation instability of its own. Franz Wagner remains sidelined, while Paolo Banchero has been on a managed workload since returning from injury — limiting the Magic’s offensive rhythm. Despite flashes of competitiveness — including a recent comeback win against Denver — Orlando has struggled to score efficiently on a nightly basis, particularly in half-court settings. Defensively, however, the Magic continue to rank well in forcing tough shots and controlling tempo — a style that naturally suppresses scoring totals. When paired with a Toronto team coming off an overtime game and playing on tired legs, the setup points toward a slower, more methodical contest.

Magic vs Raptors prediction: Under 221.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 220.0.

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Just when we thought the Cavaliers have started to turn their season around, they let us down with 2 defeats to the Knicks and Rockets. The loss on Christmas Day to New York was a particularly painful one given that Cleveland led over 70% of that game and the lead was as much as 17 points prior to a fourth-quarter collapse. But that’s been the season of the Cavaliers in a nutshell. This team looks nowhere near the one that captured our imagination last year during the regular season and it is now struggling to secure even one of the first 6 spots in the Eastern Conference.

The Spurs were also a massive disappointment in their last game, losing to the Jazz by 13 points despite being -16.5 favorites. There were some positives to take away from that game; one of them was Victor Wembanyama’s insertion back into the starting lineup after being on a minutes restriction and coming off the bench in his recovery from a calf issue. Things should stabilize a bit more moving forward as Wemby regains his footing. He goes up against Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley down low tonight; neither of those players has the height or the athleticism to stay in front of him.

By all accounts this is a matchup that the Spurs should be deciding in their favor. They have covered in 6 of 7 home games and are 10-2 SU in 12 games against Eastern Conference opponents. Cleveland just hasn’t shown me enough this season to warrant me backing it against one of the elite West teams on the road. I’ll take San Antonio.Cavaliers vs Spurs prediction: San Antonio -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Owners of the current longest losing streak in the NBA the Indiana Pacers head to Houston in hopes of winning for the first time in 9 games played. It has been a season to forget for the Eastern Conference champions, after 32 games played they’ve accumulated just 6 wins and I’m afraid there’s no hope of them to make it into the play-in tournament even in the weak Eastern Conference. During this losing streak they have the league’s worst offensive rating at just 104.9 points per 100 possessions, that’s 2.5 points worse than the team above them the Bucks. Defensively there are 4 teams with a worse efficiency rating during this stretch, Indiana is allowing 119.4 points per 100 possessions.

The Rockets have seemingly bounced back from their mini crisis that they were in over the past couple of weeks. They’ve now won back-to-back games over the Lakers and Cavaliers, both by double-digits. Alperen Sengun decided to take the night off against the Cavaliers and it didn’t make much of a difference. Even without him the defense was on point, holding the Cavs to just 100 points, which is great news for a team that allowed 128 and 125 points vs the Clippers and Kings not too long ago. Sengun’s status is still up in the air here as he recovers from a calf injury, but given the strength of Houston’s opponent here I wouldn’t be surprised if they decided to sit him out for this one.

Despite being 9-2 SU at home the Rockets haven’t been all that reliable against the spread, covering in just 6 of those 11 games. Indiana comes into this one as a 14.5-point underdog, they do have a head-to-head record that’s on their side here having won 10 of 11 meetings and 5 of 6 at Toyota Center. Those wins were accumulated in years prior when health wasn’t such an issue as this year. Hopefully the Rockets guard against complacency here and get the job done. I’ll take them to cover.

Indiana Pacers vs Houston Rockets Predictions: Rockets -14.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This number feels a little light when you dig beneath the surface. Minnesota is still viewed as one of the elite teams in the Western Conference, but its recent results suggest it is not as invincible as the market sometimes indicates. Losses to Brooklyn and Denver — plus an earlier stumble against Memphis — highlight a pattern: the Wolves can occasionally drift through games and let inferior opponents hang around.

That tendency becomes more concerning on the road against a Chicago team that has quietly stabilized. After a rocky November, the Bulls regrouped, tightened their rotation and found an identity built on better shot selection and defensive effort. They rolled off a 5-game winning streak before finally getting tripped up by Milwaukee. On paper, Minnesota’s record and star power may suggest a straightforward favorite role, but the matchup doesn’t play out that simply. The Bulls perform noticeably better at home, where their supporting cast gains rhythm and the team plays with sharper energy. If this turns into a possession-by-possession battle — which Minnesota often allows — Chicago has more than enough structure and momentum to pull off an upset.

Timberwolves vs Bulls prediction: Chicago ML (+180) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New York Knicks enter this matchup as one of the Eastern Conference’s most efficient teams, powered by an offense averaging just over 120 points per game while shooting efficiently from the field. Jalen Brunson continues to play at an All-NBA level, anchoring the offense with elite shot creation and late-game control, while Karl-Anthony Towns adds interior scoring and rebounding that stretches defenses. Despite their strong record, the Knicks are not without concerns. Injuries have thinned their rotation, with Mitchell Robinson sidelined and key role players like Josh Hart and Landry Shamet unavailable, forcing New York to rely more heavily on its starters. That lack of depth can show up on the road, especially against physical teams that pressure the ball and attack the paint.

The New Orleans Pelicans have struggled mightily in the standings, but the underlying effort level has been more competitive than their record suggests. Zion Williamson remains the focal point, averaging more than 21 points per game while drawing constant defensive attention, and Trey Murphy provides perimeter shooting that can swing momentum quickly. While New Orleans is missing key defenders such as Herbert Jones and Jose Alvarado, the Pelicans tend to play with more confidence at home — particularly when catching points. They have shown an ability to hang around against superior opponents by controlling tempo and leaning on physical half-court offense. With New York dealing with rotation issues and not playing as well on the road this year, watch out for this young Pelicans team trending in the right direction.

Knicks vs Pelicans prediction: New Orleans +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

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