NBA Picks

It’s not often you’ll see these Cavaliers score under the 100 point mark, but that’s exactly what happened in their latest game when they lost to Golden State 99-94 on Saturday. This mini 5-day break should do them well as they try to reset a bit, in hopes of regaining some of the form they displayed last season when they were the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. Next up is Washington, a team they beat 148-115 in the first meeting of the year. Can they follow it up with another dominant performance on Friday? Jarrett Allen remains out, but there is optimism he, along with Sam Merrill and Max Strus, could return as soon as this weekend.

With 3 wins in 22 games, the Wizards are dead last in the Eastern Conference with not much to play for in this game. However, I would still advise caution here, as all 3 of their wins happened in games in which they were double-digit underdogs. This team allows an NBA-high 128.3 points per game. On some nights, they are able to match that number on the other end, causing problems to their opponents. However, like the Cavs, they have a few names on the injury report, most notably Khris Middleton, Alex Sarr and Bilal Coulibaly — all out for this game.

This should be all Cleveland. The Cavs have won 13 meetings in a row, and the last 5 were by double digits. In games played in Washington, the Cavs have an active 6-game win streak going, and they’ve also covered the spread in 8 of the last 12 overall against the Wizards. Normally, I’m not a fan of backing teams to win by double-digits on the road, but I cannot find a reason why not to do it in this case. Take the Cavaliers.

Cavaliers vs Wizards prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers -14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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With back-to-back wins and 3 in 5 games, the Indiana Pacers have doubled their win total for the season. During this stretch, they beat the struggling Bulls twice and the Sacramento Kings on Monday, so I would hold off on saying they’re turning things around until they can beat a team that’s over the .500 mark. They can do exactly that on Friday when they face the Philadelphia 76ers on the road in the first of 4 meetings between these teams. Winning on the road has been an enigma for the Pacers, who are just 1-10 SU in 11 outings, but at least they’ve been consistent when it comes to covering the spread — doing so 8 times in their last 10 games overall.

Philadelphia just had a 3-game win streak snapped by the Lakers, who beat them 112-108 at home. Joel Embiid made a rare appearance, though he finished the game with 16 points on a horrible 4-for-21 from the field and 0-for-6 from three. It wasn’t the best of offensive displays by the Sixers, who have not played all that well in home games this season — winning just 7 of 14 games. On top of that, they’re just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games. The more I think about it, the less of a chance I give them to cover as 7-point favorites here. Against the Pacers, the Sixers have won just once in 6 meetings, and the last 15 games head-to-head have seen them cover only 5 times.

Despite all the injuries slowing them down, the Pacers still put in the effort on a nightly basis, and they have a bit of momentum on their side here after back-to-back wins over Chicago and Sacramento. Their head-to-head record is solid against Philly, so let’s try our luck by backing them plus the extra points here.

Pacers vs 76ers prediction: Indiana Pacers +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Thunder are the story of the season — 24-1, defending champs, and blasting opponents en route to the NBA Cup semifinals. Because of that, the market is pricing them at a premium, and anyone backing OKC here is paying for the hype as much as the team. That’s where the overlay risk comes in and makes the Spurs the sharp side but to back, but that leads more into what we are really here to talk about – the total.

San Antonio’s upset win over the Lakers in Los Angeles showed they are not simply passengers in this tournament. The Spurs have improved dramatically since last season, and while they don’t have OKC’s star power, they have enough structure and versatility to compete far better than the point spread or the over/under suggests. The thing is, the Spurs will have to lean into their offense to get the job done here. San Antonio is not built for a defensive showdown like the total suggests, so they will have to find a breakthrough against the Thunder’s stout defense to have a chance. We have to like those prospects, the Spurs put up over 130 against the Lakers in Los Angeles to come away with the W, a game that eclipsed the 240 mark in total. Then there is the other side of it, the Thunder can trample the Spurs and leave them in wreckage, but even if that happens, 225 seems a bit low overall. Take the over.

Spurs vs Thunder prediction: Over 225.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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