NBA Picks

Following last night’s win at Orlando, the winning streak for OKC has now reached 9 games in a row. The Thunder will look to push it to double-digits with another win over the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday. SGA exploded with 40 points last night, at one point the Thunder led by as many as 18 in the win, they’ll be brimming with confidence ahead of tonight’s game. Against the Nets they’ve won 7 of 8 meetings overall and 7 of 8 played in Brooklyn, while also covering in 6 of those last 8 overall. The oddsmakers are convinced in a blowout win here, the spread has been set at a massive 19.5 points which is the highest I’ve seen all season for any team.

The Nets have the rest advantage here and as bad as they’ve been their last 2 of 3 losses were by single digits. It has been a rough season without question. I feel like casual NBA fans couldn’t even name the 5 starters for the Nets right now. Michael Porter Jr., Terance Mann and Day’Ron Sharpe are all out due to injuries, and Brooklyn has shot better than 50% from the field only twice in its last 10 games. They do have a pair of wins during this stretch, one of them came against the Detroit Pistons when they were +13.5 underdogs. However, the Pistons did rest Cade Cunningham in that game.

On paper there is a massive gap in quality between the 2 teams, but games aren’t decided on paper in the NBA. I am not a fan of the massive spread here at all, especially for a team playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back. OKC has covered in 1 of 9 games coming into this one, while in games with no rest they are just 4-7 SU in 11 played. I think the Nets will play with a bit of pride here and make this one somewhat competitive for the home fans to enjoy, I’ll back the home team plus the points.

Thunder vs Nets prediction: Brooklyn +19.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Ten days after the first time these teams played each other this season, the Portland Trail Blazers and the Indiana Pacers will go head-to-head for the second and final time. The Trail Blazers defeated the Pacers 131-111 in Portland on March 8. Portland shot 51% from the field in that game and out-rebounded the Pacers 53 to 38. Scoot Henderson led the Trail Blazers with 28 points and Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 22 points. The bad news for Indiana is that Siakam is listed as questionable for tonight’s game with an injury. Injuries have really bit the Pacers down the stretch. With Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Obi Toppin and TJ McConnell going in and out of the daily lineup, Indy has lost 14 straight games — its longest skid of the season. The Pacers will be playing in the second half of a back-to-back. They played last night and lost in New York 136-110.

As for the Trail Blazers, they currently sit 1.5 games behind the eighth seed in the Western Conference. If they want to move up the standings, they need to win games more consistently. Portland has traded wins and losses since March 1 and it is only 1-4 in its last 5 road games overall. Portland has not proven to be a good road team all season. The Blazers have a record on the road of 15-20, and they are 16-19 against the spread in those games. The Pacers are the more proven team against the spread on their home floor. They are 18-16 this season ATS when playing at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Based on these numbers and considering the Pacers don’t seem to want to win games at this time, I don’t believe either team is reliable against the spread. Instead, I like the under for this matchup. The under has hit in 20 out the 35 road games played this season for the Trail Blazers, and with the mix of injuries and tired legs in playing in a back-to-back, I don’t expect the Pacers’ offense to be humming in this matchup.

Trail Blazers vs Pacers prediction: Under 232.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Let’s not stand on ceremony. The Clippers are still battling for positioning in the Western Conference play-in race, which means every game carries significance. That urgency typically translates into a focused approach, particularly against teams near the bottom of the standings. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are trending in the opposite direction. With their postseason hopes effectively gone, their remaining games have more to do with development and draft positioning than results. That shift in priorities can lead to inconsistent performances, especially against opponents with something tangible at stake. Which is why the Pels shouldn’t be favored here.

New Orleans has offensive weapons and is readily capable of pushing pace or playing with physicality. We get it. And on nights when their offense is flowing, the Pelicans can look like a team that can play with anyone. The issue is reliability. From one game to the next, it’s difficult to know exactly what version of New Orleans will appear. The Clippers provide far more stability. Los Angeles is readily comfortable slowing the tempo and forcing games into half-court possessions. That ability to control pace and defend consistently often becomes decisive against teams that prefer more open games like New Orleans. The Clippers can also score from the perimeter, too, if necessary. If Los Angeles dictates tempo and forces meaningful possessions throughout the game like it should, it will win. This isn’t one to overthink.

Clippers vs Pelicans prediction: Los Angeles ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Toronto Raptors have seen 8 of their last 10 games come in under 234 combined points. They will now take on a Chicago Bulls team that they faced twice last month, with neither game clearing the 230-point mark. While the Bulls have been playing high-tempo basketball, ranking second in the league in pace over the last 10 games, they have also been getting stops. In fact, over the last 10 games both of these teams are in the top half of the league in defensive rating. With the teams also 18th and 19th in true shooting percentage during that stretch, this looks set to follow the first 2 meetings between the sides in terms of scoring.

The Bulls have been relying on Matas Buzelis to lead the team offensively, with the forward averaging 23 points per game this month. However, he will be up against Scottie Barnes, one of the leading contenders for Defensive Player of the Year. The Raptors are also allowing the sixth-fewest fastb-reak points per game, too. With Buzelis leading the Bulls in scoring in that category over the last 10 contests, the visitors should be well positioned to slow him down and hamper the Bulls’ attack. Let’s take the under.

Raptors vs Bulls prediction: Under 234 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 233.

Nobody can stop the Atlanta Hawks. The longest current active winning streak belongs to them at 10 wins in a row. They just beat the Orlando Magic in an impressive way thanks to 41 points from Nickeil Alexander-Walker and a triple-double by Jalen Johnson. That duo has found incredible chemistry during this winning streak. The Hawks are making the most out of this easier schedule and at the moment the seventh seed is only a half-game away after they overtook the Philadelphia 76ers for eighth in the East. They are once again big favorites on the road in Dallas on Wednesday despite winning there only once in the last 7 visits.

The Mavs came back down to Earth following their shocking win over the Cavaliers last weekend, as they lost 129-111 to the Pelicans in their last game. They return home to the American Airlines Center, where they have lost 9 games in a row. There’s very little pressure on them to get a result here; in fact, it would be better if they kept losing so their positioning in the NBA Draft lottery improves. Despite all the losses piling up, they have been able to stay somewhat competitive in home games — covering in 17 of 34 outings. For Wednesday’s game they will have a healthy Cooper Flagg available. His Rookie of the Year case has taken a big hit; I think we can count on a big effort from him individually in this one.

During this winning streak the Hawks rank fourth in offensive efficiency and first in defensive efficiency. The popular saying goes that all streaks have to come to an end — and while that is true in this case, as well, I do not feel like it will happen on Wednesday. Until someone takes them down, I’ll just continue backing the Hawks.

Hawks vs Mavericks prediction: Atlanta -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Denver Nuggets are finally starting to get healthy again as the season enters its final stretch. With players returning from injuries, the Nuggets have won three of their last four games and continue to climb up the Western Conference standings. Denver is currently the fifth seed in the West, but they are only 1.5 games behind the third seed. Their opponent tonight, the Memphis Grizzlies, are an easy opponent on paper, but with this game being added as a makeup game from January 25, it puts the Nuggets in a tough spot. They will be playing this game in the second half of a back-to-back. They just played last night against the 76ers in Denver, and now they need to travel across the country to play Memphis in less than a 24-hour turnaround. The only player listed as out for Denver is Peyton Watson, but I would not be surprised to see more Nuggets’ players being added to the list — especially considering a lot of them have recently returned from injury.

Even with the rest advantage, it is hard for me to back the Grizzlies to cover. Due to injuries and players being shut down for the season, the Grizzlies lineup is down to the skeleton crew. Their main contributors on a nightly basis are Ty Jerome and Cedric Coward. The Grizzlies have been well below their offensive season averages, only averaging 109 points in their last three games. With Denver potentially playing this game right off the plane, and with the lack of talent in the Grizzlies offense, I don’t see these two teams getting up and down the floor and scoring a lot of points.

Nuggets vs Grizzlies prediction: Under 244 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets will complete a 2-game swing in Houston when they meet again on Wednesday night. They just faced each other at the same venue on Monday, with Los Angeles cruising 100-92. However, there are reasons to think that the outcome will be much different in the rematch. My Lakers vs Rockets pick is for the home team to win and cover. First of all, it’s hard to beat the same team twice in a row in the regular season when motivation is not at a high point. It’s obviously a different story in the playoffs — but right now, whoever loses the first one is surely the more inspired team for the second one. More importantly, Houston center Alperen Sengun sat out the last 2 games with a back issue but will return for Wednesday’s showdown. Getting Sengun’s 20.2 ppg, 8.9 rpg and 6.1 apg back on the court will naturally be a massive boost for the Rockets.

It’s worth noting that the Rockets fell by only 8 points earlier this week even though Sengun was out and they played as poorly as humanly possible. They lost the rebounding battle by 12, committed 22 turnovers (11 more than L.A.) and shot 5-for-26 from 3-point range. Houston isn’t going to get manhandled on the glass like that with Sengun back in action and Kevin Durant won’t have to force the issue by trying to do it all himself on the offensive end of the floor (he was responsible for 7 of his team’s turnovers). Although this is a trend that can’t be fully explained, it is worth noting that the Rockets have alternated wins and losses all the way back to February 26 — a span of 10 games. In other words, Houston is once again due to bounce back and emerge victorious.

Lakers vs Rockets prediction: Houston -2.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.