NBA Picks

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The Dallas Mavericks kick off a 6-game road trip against the red-hot Charlotte Hornets. Dallas is coming off a 100-87 loss at home against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. While the Mavericks lost by 13, they were able to cover as a 16.5-point underdog. The Mavericks are 4-1 against the spread in the past 5 games as a double-digit underdog, and 4-2 ATS in the past 6 outings. Dallas has won just twice in the past 15 outings since Jan. 24, while going 4-7 ATS across the previous 11 outings. The Mavericks came close in the first meeting, falling 123-121 at home on Jan. 29 as a 3.5-point underdog as the Over (226.5) cashed. Rookie Kon Knueppel racked up 34 points for the Hornets in that matchup, hitting 8 threes, while LeMelo Ball went for 22 points, 9 assists and 6 triples.

That was the game where rookie Cooper Flagg rolled up 49 points with 10 rebounds, hitting 20-of-29 shots from the field. However, Flagg is doubtful for this game due to a mid-foot strain, while Naji Marshall (finger), one of this primary replacements, is also out. Klay Thompson is questionable due to an adductor, and P.J. Washington has a questionable tag due to a sprained left ankle. The Hornets are way healthier, and they should keep their foot on the gas as the hot streak continues.

Mavericks vs Hornets prediction: Hornets -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a rivalry spot more than a who has the better record play. Detroit sits atop the East (45–14) while Cleveland is 38–24, and the public understandably wants to ride the Pistons after they knocked off the Cavs in overtime last week. But Cleveland has already shown it can go toe-to-toe with Detroit in this matchup: last Friday’s meeting as mentioned went to overtime and finished as a 122–119 Pistons win, with Cleveland leaving points at the line and feeling hard done by late whistles. Now, the Pistons have to run it back on the road. Not exactly the best spot for Detroit. Cleveland gets the next round at Rocket Arena, where emotional intensity will be maxed out in a divisional grudge match which will have a postseason feel.

Detroit deserves respect, but the market’s love can create a small overpricing window when the matchup itself is already a coin flip. With the Cavs proving they can compete, taking Cleveland outright is the cleanest way to capture the value in a game that is priced as a toss-up.

Pistons vs Cavaliers prediction: Cavaliers ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a spread that looks scary with a team like the Magic, but that is the point. Once you line up the game’s baseline expectations, it seems more clearer. The expectation here is that Orlando scores against Washington’s suspect defense while using home court and their own defensive prowess to create separation. If that plays out, clearing even 16 points is tenable. The books aren’t asking Orlando to play above its mean, they’re asking them to meet it on a routine night.

Washington’s recent profile screams run vulnerability. When their offense slips, it doesn’t just miss shots — it produces empty possessions that has become opponent transition chances, and that’s how margins balloon. Orlando is one of the better teams to exploit that because they can win without shooting lights out: defend, rebound, and grind teams down until the scoreboard separates. Home context as mentioned, also matters too. Orlando’s defensive physicality tends to play up in their building, and big favorites cover when they keep intensity through the middle quarters. The Magic also excel in doing that. If this is close at halftime, sure, the cover gets sweaty. But the most likely script is Orlando methodically stacking stops and shifting into next gear when Washington hits one of its many drought pockets. This is not an overlay, it’s an indicator of who the truly superior side is in this tilt. Take the Magic and lay the points.

Wizards vs Magic prediction: Magic -15.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -16.

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Once again the points may seem bountiful, but its all about looking deeper. Brooklyn comes in as a bottom-tier team (15–45) riding an eight-game losing streak, while Miami is a playoff-level group (32–29) that can win by controlling the game defensively and forcing opponents into long half-court possessions. What is unfortunate for the Nets is that they don’t have the offensive acumen to even challenge that. For intent and purpose, they are the worst offensive team in the NBA in scoring, efficiency, and pace.

Brooklyn has also been losing road games in bunches, and when you’re on a long skid, one bad five-minute stretch can turn this game into a blowout quickly because confidence and execution collapse altogether. The Heat can push tempo, they can hit the three, and they can out-physical the Nets for second chance points. The aggregate leads to what some call a “professional win.” And if that transpires, the Heat will carry on downhill against the Nets and run them straight out of the building. Lay the points.

Nets vs Heat prediction: Heat -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -14.

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After the dominant win over the Spurs this weekend we can finally say that the Knicks have stabilized a bit. It was their 4th win in 5 games, they’re looking to add to that vs a Toronto team they’ve already beaten 3 times this season, so Tuesday’s game will cap off the regular season series between these teams. New York has actually won the last 10 meetings vs Toronto, averaging more points per game during this impressive run. They’ve also covered in 6 straight and won in 6 straight visits to Scotiabank Arena. Miles McBride is the only potential absentee with a ankle issue, he’s listed as day-to-day.

You have to wonder will finally kick in for the Raptors in this matchup? Losing against the same team over and over can be very detrimental for a group of players, especially when those losses are by 22, 16 and 27 points like the 3 we saw earlier this season. Normally you’d think playing at home would be an encouraging factor for a team ahead of such a game, but for the Raptors it’d be much better if they were on the road here. They’re barely over the .500 mark at Scotiabank Arena this season, we just saw them lose their last two games there vs OKC and San Antonio. They did bounce back with a win over Washington, but it’s worth pointing out they failed to cover the spread in that game winning only by 9 points.

Apart from the slip-up vs Cleveland, the Knicks are firing on all cylinders. The defense has been rock solid, keeping 3 of their last 4 opponents under 100 points. The old saying goes that all streaks have to come to an end at some point, but I don’t think Tuesday is the day for the Raptors to put an end to theirs. I’m taking the Knicks to continue their dominance.

Knicks vs Raptors prediction: Knicks -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves have won 6 of their last 7 games heading into a home date with the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday night. Minnesota is not a team you want to fade right now, but at the same time 14.5 points are a lot to give. As such, I will pivot to the game total and target the under. Although Memphis is likely heading straight for the NBA Draft lottery, it is not tanking. The Grizzlies are putting forth a solid effort, and that effort typically shows up on defense. They surrendered only 105 and 106 points in their last 2 contests against the Mavericks and Jazz, beating both of those teams respectively.

Memphis will have to get defensive again on Tuesday, because it is unlikely to put up a huge number on the scoreboard. After all, the visitors could be without anyone on the floor averaging more than 13.6 points per game. Jaren Jackson Jr. was dealt to Utah prior to the trade deadline, Ja Morant is out, and both Ty Jerome and Santi Aldama are questionable. Cedric Coward is also listed as day-to-day as part of a long Memphis injury report. They are facing a T-Wolves club that has limited 4 of its last 6 opponents to no more than 111 points. These 2 West rivals have gone head-to-head 3 times in 2025-26, including once in Minny. When the ‘Wolves hosted on December 17, a modest 226 points were scored (Minnesota won 116-110). Give me the under in Minnesota.

Grizzlies vs Timberwolves prediction: Under 240.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 238.5.

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On Sunday we saw a very uncharacteristic display from the San Antonio Spurs who fell on the road at Madison Square Garden 114-89 to the Knicks. After an unbeaten run in February, starting off the month of March with a loss was not ideal. Wemby did his part with 25 points and 13 rebounds, but he did turn the ball over 7 times. As a team the Spurs just didn’t look locked in from the start, they ended the game with 22 turnovers and there lies the reason why the lost the game. They now head to Philadelphia and a venue where they’ve struggled over the years winning just once in 9 visits.

Philly’s biggest issue here is the absence of Joel Embiid. That means extra playing time for Andre Drummond down low, I am curious to see how his physicality affects Wembanyama down low. He might not have the height advantage, but Drummond’s thick frame and maneuverability might be an issue for the Spurs big man. Tyrese Maxey will be the key factor for Philadelphia here though, the shooting guard has played extremely well on offense lately averaging over 30 points per game in his last 10 outings. He’s gone over 30 points in 3 of 4 games, but in order for the Sixers to be competitive here he will need to get his teammates involved. In the 3 wins prior to the loss to Boston he collected 8, 8 and 11 assists, while against the Cs he was limited to just 6 and it cost the Sixers the game.

No Embiid means that we get the Sixers at a very tempting price as a home underdog here. They’ve had the edge over the years in this match-up and with them going 7-3 in 10 games vs West opponents ahead of this game, I believe they won’t go away lightly here. I’ll side with Philly plus the points.

Spurs vs 76ers prediction: 76ers +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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With wins in 4 of their last 5 games you’d think the Pelicans have something going on right now, but when you look at the opponents they beat to get to that record (Utah twice, Golden State and Philadelphia), things get a bit clearer. Their last game saw them lose to the Clippers by 20 points, despite getting their leading scorer Trey Murphy III back from injury. Unlike those other teams that are tanking, the Pelicans are actually trying to win games at the moment, but their issues is they’re just not good enough on most nights. The oddsmakers have them once again as huge underdogs ahead of Tuesday’s game against the Lakers. LA has beaten them in 9 straight meetings, including 7 in a row at Crypto.com Arena.

Following 3 consecutive losses to Boston, Orlando and Phoenix, the Lakers got a small break in the schedule with a back-to-back scenario vs Golden State and Sacramento. They dominated the two struggling teams with ease, the hype train is back in effect after those wins and now their fans are expecting another one of those wins vs New Orleans. How realistic is that though? If we are to go by the first 3 meetings this season, I’d say very. The Lakers won by 14, 12 and 8 points in those 3 games, despite all the turbulence they’ve encountered since the All-Star break, they should be winning games like these.

A win here edges the Lakers closer to the 5th seeded Nuggets in the Western Conference, these teams have the same number of losses entering Tuesday’s action. I’m hoping Luka and co. guard against complacency here, just like they did in their last two games where they were the overwhelming favorites. Go with the Lakers.

Pelicans vs Lakers prediction: Lakers -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Phoenix regaining a massive piece with Devin Booker back in the lineup, a key boost for their offense after a recent stretch where they struggled without his creation and scoring ability. Booker’s presence restores pick and roll efficiency, spacing, and midrange precision — elements that keep the Suns’ offensive possessions under control rather than in frenetic up and down bursts. While Phoenix can score in the half court, they’ve often methodically worked through sets rather than pushing a sprint pace, especially on back to back nights or with innings taxed from travel and previous games.

Sacramento’s season has been defined by ups and downs on both sides of the ball, and their recent contests have leaned toward longer possessions and defensive sets that favor controlled execution. Offensively, the Kings average around the league median in points per game, but their half court looks have been deliberate, resulting in slower possessions and extended shot clocks. Defensively, Sacramento has shown flashes of resistance in packed paint situations and late switches, often limiting easy transition buckets that can drive totals higher. Recent head to head meetings between these teams have also stayed at or below expectations, with both squads dialing into structure rather than pace, especially when key starters are active. With Booker’s return stabilizing the Suns’ attack and both teams trending toward controlled offensive sets, this matchup projects toward fewer possessions and a slower rhythm.

Suns vs Kings prediction: Under 223.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 222.5.

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