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9:42 PM ET
Yesterday
Peacock
Minnesota Timberwolves
San Antonio Spurs
Timberwolves
Spurs
Point Spread Pick
SA Spurs -13.0(-110)

The Minnesota Timberwolves open their series on the road against the San Antonio Spurs, but the matchup is heavily tilted by Minnesota’s injury situation and the physical toll of its previous series. The Timberwolves are coming off a demanding playoff battle with Denver in which they advanced through defense, rebounding and late-game execution, but they now face a much deeper and fresher Spurs team. The biggest storyline is the status of Anthony Edwards, who is dealing with a left knee bone bruise and remains sidelined for Game 1. Even if he suits up at some point in the series, there are real questions about his explosiveness, workload and ability to carry Minnesota’s offense at a high level. Compounding the issue, Minnesota is already without Donte DiVincenzo — which further limits perimeter shooting and spacing, forcing increased creation responsibilities onto Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels in difficult matchup conditions.

San Antonio, meanwhile, enters Game 1 fully rested and rolling following a dominant first-round series win over Portland. The Spurs have looked like one of the more balanced offensive teams in the postseason, with spacing, pace control and shot creation all working efficiently. Their centerpiece, Victor Wembanyama, continues to present a unique 2-way challenge — impacting the game as a rim protector while also stretching defenses offensively. At home, San Antonio’s depth becomes even more dangerous, as multiple secondary creators are capable of exploiting mismatches against a Minnesota team that may be operating below full strength. The combination of rest advantage, home court and offensive versatility gives the Spurs a clear structural edge heading into the opener.

From a betting perspective, this is a classic “situational mismatch” spot. Minnesota’s path to staying competitive hinges almost entirely on Edwards’ health, and any limitation significantly lowers its scoring ceiling. Without consistent perimeter creation, the Timberwolves risk long stretches of inefficient half-court offense, especially against a disciplined Spurs defense. San Antonio, on the other hand, has the tools to push pace and build separation early if Minnesota struggles to score. With all factors considered, this sets up as a game in which the Spurs’ depth and health advantage should translate to control from start to finish.

Timberwolves vs Spurs prediction: San Antonio -13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5.

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Same Game Parlay
Point Spread
MIN Timberwolves +13.5
Game Totals
Under 215.5
Player Points+Rebounds+Assists
M. Conley (MIN) - Over 11.5 PRA

Timberwolves vs Spurs parlay pick: Timberwolves +13.5 (-105)

Firstly, this can be found in the Alternative Point Spread market and it allows us to avoid a push by selling half a point to also pay less vigorish. But let’s get into the market overall. This number (+13.5 or the actual number of +14 at time of writing) is being driven more by perception than matchup reality. With Anthony Edwards sidelined, the market has essentially written Minnesota off in a fresh series, inflating this spread into a range that doesn’t align with how the Timberwolves actually play. This is still a team built on structure, physicality, and defense, traits that travel well and keep games within reach. The low Total (216.5) is a show of respect for what the Wolves bring to the table fundamentally.

Yes, San Antonio looked dominant against Portland, but that series offered far less resistance than what Minnesota brings. The Wolves were in control of their previous series against Denver before the Edwards injury and still managed to grind their way through, reinforcing their identity as a resilient team that wins games by rolling up their sleeves. Laying this kind of number in a Game 1 against a disciplined defensive unit is a big ask. Minnesota doesn’t need to win outright, just stay competitive. Given their style and playoff toughness, this price offers clear value.

Timberwolves vs Spurs SGP pick: Under 215.5 (+100)

Like the first leg of our parlay, this is found in the Alternative Game Total. This leg aligns directly with how Minnesota must approach this game. Without their primary offensive engine, the Timberwolves are incentivized to slow tempo, lean into half-court sets, and prioritize defense. That naturally pushes this matchup toward a lower-scoring environment.

The low Over/Under already signals expectations of a grind, and there is enormous value on the Under especially when paired with a large underdog like Minnesota. Low-scoring games compress margins, making it easier for teams catching significant points to stay within range. That correlation is key: fewer possessions mean fewer opportunities for San Antonio to create separation.

Minnesota has already shown it can dictate pace against stronger offensive teams by clogging lanes and forcing contested looks. If they replicate that blueprint here, this game stays tight and methodical. Taking the Under not only fits the expected style but also complements the Timberwolves spread in a cohesive betting approach. Selling a point to get the Under at 215.5 on the Alternative Game Total allows the parlay to have an even greater return and if Minnesota competes, they likely cover the spread and keep the total well under.

Timberwolves vs Spurs SGP pick: Mike Conley over 11.5 points+rebounds+assists (-110)

This is a role-and-opportunity play more than anything else. Conley is a veteran point guard who understands playoff basketball as well as anyone, and in a spot like this, Minnesota is going to lean on that experience. With Anthony Edwards out, Conley’s minutes and on-ball responsibilities saw a clear uptick, which directly feeds into his production across all three categories. We saw that in Game 6 against Denver where he logged 26 minutes and put up 7 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists, comfortably clearing this number. His regular season PRA may sit just over 9, but that doesn’t account for playoff usage or current circumstances.

Conley’s ability to facilitate (consistently around 3+ assists) offense, combined with increased touches and potential scoring opportunities, gives him multiple paths to cash this ticket. Add in his defensive prowess overall which can translate into extra rebound chances on any given night, and the volume is there. In this setting, his experience and enhanced role make this number beatable. Conley is a pitbull and a gamer, and he knows better than any what is at stake in Game 1 here, expect the best from him, and that translates to a high probability of clearing this number too.

8:12 PM ET
Yesterday
NBC
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks
76ers
Knicks
Game Totals Pick
Over 212.0(-110)

The 76ers won’t have too much time to celebrate their comeback win over the Celtics, as Round 2 of the Eastern Conference Playoffs begins on Monday at Madison Square Garden. Playing the Knicks will be a completely different challenge than it was playing the Celtics, but it’s one that the 76ers will embrace with open arms. Just like with Boston, there is unfinished business between these two sides, as the Knicks eliminated Philly in the first round 2 seasons ago. The core of both teams has remained intact since, so it adds another element into what is a storied rivalry. Game 1 will be a feel out game for both teams. Oddly enough, all 4 regular season games were won by the road team, so despite being 7.5-point dogs in the opener, the Sixers will like their chances.

Meanwhile, the Knicks had a couple days to rest and prepare for this series, as they were the only team to advance in the East without having to play a Game 7. Beating the Hawks by double digits in 3 straight games, including the 51-point drubbing in Game 6, will have the Knicks brimming with confidence as they continue their quest of returning to the Eastern Conference Finals. Head coach Mike Brown has to feel good after seeing how Karl-Anthony Towns played against Atlanta; he took full advantage of his size down low and notched a pair of triple-doubles along the way. Mikal Bridges also silenced his critics by scoring 24 points after a sub-par opening to the series. Expectations are high in Knicks land ahead of the start of this series.

We did not see all that much defense in the 4 regular season meetings between these teams, as the projected total of 212 points was surpassed in all 4 games. This being the postseason, the pace of play should go down a bit and the defenses will tighten up, but I still feel like that number is a tad too low considering the offensive talent on both rosters. There could also be some tired legs out there on Philly’s roster after their grueling series with the Celtics, which could lead to a more open game to start this series. I’m backing the over.

76ers vs Knicks Game 1 prediction: Over 212 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 213.5.

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Betting against the spread means to bet on the favourite to win by a certain amount of points or the underdog to win or lose by fewer than a certain amount.

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