NBA Picks

It has been quite a turnaround this season for the Suns, who are suddenly one of the more pleasant surprises after being arguably the most painful team to watch last year. Right now they occupy seventh place in the Western Conference following their 6-point loss to Miami earlier this week. Thursday sees them take on the Pistons, with their best player Devin Booker being listed as day-to-day due to an ankle issue. Joining him on the injury report is Royce O’Neale, a valuable three-and-d player who has enjoyed a career year with the Suns this season.

The Pistons also have a couple of knocks on their roster, with Isaiah Stewart, Tobias Harris and Jalen Duren all being game-time decisions. All 3 of those, along with Cade Cunningham, missed the last game against the Clippers — in which Detroit really struggled to score the basketball, finishing the game with just 92 points. Thankfully, though, Cunningham is expected to be back for Thursday’s game; that automatically makes the Pistons competitive.

For a long time this has been a one-sided affair, with the Suns winning 8 of the last 9 meetings. But with Booker potentially sitting this one out, it’s an ideal opportunity for Detroit to reverse this trend. The Pistons have won 11 of 16 games and have covered in 4 of their last 6. They have also been a reliable home team, with 15 wins in 19 games and an 11-8 ATS record. I’ll back the more defensively oriented Pistons in this one

Suns vs Pistons prediction: Detroit -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Boston Celtics’ offense has plummeted in their last 3 of 4 games, culminating with back-to-back losses to San Antonio and Indiana in games in which they scored under 100 points both times. In the game against Indy they connected on just 9 threes, the lowest amount made over the past 10 games. Most of those numbers should see a bump up against a somewhat defensively limited Miami Heat team. Boston did win the first meeting 129-116 about a month ago at home.

The Heat have also seen a dropoff in production on the offensive end, recording 2 games of fewer than 100 point scored in the past 7 days. But if we are to judge them by their 2 most recent performances, that slump is behind them. On Wednesday they beat the Phoenix Suns 127-121 while shooting over 50% for the second game in a row. They do have a couple of minor injuries to a few rotational players, but — more importantly — Bam Adebayo and Norman Powell are both healthy and playing at a high level right now.

This matchup has been a struggle for Miami. The Celtics have won 8 straight at the Kaseya Center and they are 7-1 ATS/SU in the last 8 meetings overall. Boston really thrives in games against opponents that play at a fast pace, so I’m expecting their offense to wake up a little on Thursday. Let’s go with Brown and company to win and cover.

Celtics vs Heat prediction: Boston -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Oklahoma City enters this matchup as one of the NBA’s elite teams, carrying one of the top records in the Western Conference and an offense that consistently produces at a high level. The Thunder are averaging north of 120 points per game, driven by efficient shot selection and a fast paced style led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who continues to perform at an MVP-caliber level with close to 32 points per night. OKC’s ability to create transition opportunities and score in bunches makes them dangerous, particularly when games open up and possessions increase.

Houston, however, is a much tougher out at home than the spread might suggest. The Rockets have played their best basketball in their own building, leaning on physical defense, rebounding, and balanced scoring to stay competitive against quality opponents. Alperen Sengun anchors the offense with his interior scoring and playmaking, while Houston’s supporting cast has shown the ability to contribute in key moments. The Rockets have had some recent ATS struggles, but their overall home profile and willingness to slow the tempo give them a realistic path to keep this game close. Houston tends to play up to their competition and 5.5 points is a lot for an inconsistent Thunder squad.

Thunder vs Rockets Prediction: Houston Rockets +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.5.

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Both the Milwaukee Bucks and San Antonio Spurs will be hoping to halt 2-game losing streaks when they clash in San Antonio on Thursday night. I don’t have too much faith in either team based on how poorly each one is playing at the moment, so I will instead pivot to the game total. My Bucks vs Spurs pick is Under 227.5. Milwaukee is averaging just 105 points per game over its past 3 outings and it has gone 5 straight without scoring more than 115 on any occasion. San Antonio has been held to 100, 103 and 98 points in its last 3 contests. It has gone 6 straight without scoring more than 110.

Devin Vassell has missed 8 consecutive contests for San Antonio and there is no timetable for his return. That is a tough absence, as Vassell is averaging 15.0 points per game. The Spurs rank 18th in the NBA in pace of play (103.4 possessions per game); the Bucks rank 24th in that department (102.0). Over the past 3 games, both are averaging fewer than 100 possessions. The under is 17-6 in the Bucks’ last 23 overall and 2-8 in their last 10 on the road. It is also 1-10 in the Spurs’ last 11 overall and 4-1 in their last 5 at home. Additionally, the under is 5-2 in the last 7 head-to-head matchups. I’ll roll with those trends to continue.

Bucks vs Spurs prediction: Under 227.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Utah Jazz were in action last night against the Chicago Bulls in what turned out to be a high-scoring game that combined for 254 points. Tonight, they will travel to take on the Dallas Mavericks, and with the team on the second night of a back-to-back, fatigue could be their downfall here. Over the last 10 games the team is already dead last in the NBA in defensive rating so with tired legs; do not expect major improvement from them in that category. The Mavericks are 13th in that category at the same time. However, with both Cooper Flagg and Daniel Gafford leaving their last game prematurely due to injuries, the hosts could be without their defensive core in this one.

With Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II out for the hosts, the team will lack size inside. That should lead to a couple of things. The Mavericks are going to go small and play up tempo basketball, and the Jazz should find little resistance to finish in the paint. The teams are already 7th and 11th in pace over the last 10 games, so this one should become somewhat of a track meet between the teams. During that stretch the Jazz are 6th in points in the paint and will be able to continue playing to their strengths. They are also 12th in true shooting percentage, so they will be able to take advantage of the extra possessions the pace creates. Expect both to contribute to a high scoring shootout.

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks prediction: Over 236 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Over 237.5.

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The Atlanta Hawks wrap up a 4-game road trip out west. Atlanta won the first 2 games on the trip at Denver and Golden State, allowing 99.0 PPG in those victories before getting trampled 141-116 by the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday. That halted a 3-game cover streak. The over also snapped a 4-game under run, while the total has still stayed low in 6 of the past 8 games for Atlanta. The Hawks have allowed 111 or fewer points in 3 of the past 4 games and 5 of the previous 8 outings. The under has cashed in each of the past 2 meetings in Portland in this series, too.

For the Trail Blazers, they were belted 119-97 at Golden State on Tuesday night — cashing the under (225.5). The under is 3-1 in Portland’s past 4 games, 6-2 in the past 8 outings and 11-3 in the past 14 contests. Portland has had some issues putting up decent point totals, going for 115 or fewer points in 4 straight games, 5 of the past 6 and 11 of the past 14. On the flip side, Portland has allowed 197 or fewer points in 3 of the past 4 games at home — with the under going 6-3 in the past 9 at Moda Center.

Hawks vs Trail Blazers prediction: Under 230 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 228.5.

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This spread tells you everything you need to know. Under normal circumstances, the Knicks simply aren’t the type of team you expect to see catching a meaningful number against anyone, especially this deep into the season given how consistently elite they have been on both ends. When a market is willing to hang New York as this much of an underdog, it’s almost never about “public perception” — it’s about uncertainty, and in this case the uncertainty starts and ends with Jalen Brunson’s status.

Brunson is the Knicks’ offensive engine and driving force. If he is not 100%, New York’s entire profile changes. The Knicks’ pace naturally slows, their defense takes a hit and their ability to respond to runs takes an even bigger blow. That’s exactly the kind of vulnerability that shows up on the road against a team like Golden State, which can flip a game in 3 minutes with a burst of threes and transition buckets. Add in the fact the Knicks just got clipped by Sacramento — an outcome that signals they may not be in peak form right now — and the warning signs are showing. This isn’t a spot to get cute and grab the easy number with New York. The price is advising to do otherwise. Golden State has a clear path not just to win, but to prevail by the necessary margin.

Knicks vs Warriors prediction: Golden State -7.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The international setting is exactly why Under 229 stands out as the sharpest angle in Grizzlies vs Magic. When teams travel across multiple time zones, the most common byproduct isn’t a sudden offensive explosion — it’s the opposite: slower legs, slower decisions and a game that naturally drifts toward half-court possessions. Shots that normally fall come up short, spacing gets sloppy and teams lean into the one thing that travels reliably: defense.

That dynamic makes this less about picking a side and more about identifying the likeliest game script. With jet lag in play, coaches tend to simplify the plan — valuing clean possessions, limiting transition mistakes and avoiding high-variance pace. Defensive intensity is easier to sustain than offensive precision when timing is off, and both teams have the personnel to make scoring uncomfortable without needing to gamble. This game sets up like a rock fight because a few cold stretches can bury the total. All signs point to taking the under as the best value spot in Berlin.

Grizzlies vs Magic prediction: Under 229 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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