NBA Picks

The last few days of NBA postseason action has produced a pair of the most exciting games in recent years, and Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals featured a miraculous comeback that defied all logic. With just over 7 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter, the Knicks trailed by 22 points and seemed well on their way to an extremely disappointing loss at home. However, what followed was one of the greatest comebacks in NBA postseason history, as New York erased that massive deficit and ended the game on a 44-11 run to eventually knock off the Cavaliers in overtime. This historic comeback was very similar to what we saw in Game 1 of the Conference Finals a year ago, only the Knicks were on the other side of a monumental collapse against the Pacers. New York was never the same in that series, and it’s hard to imagine that Cleveland gets off the mat after already playing 14 grueling playoff games leading up to this devastating loss. With that in mind, while I’d usually target the road team in this spot, I can only look toward laying the points with the Knicks on Thursday.

After a layoff of well over a week, the Knicks certainly looked rusty in Game 1, while the Cavaliers were much sharper and focused following their impressive Game 7 win over Detroit just 48 hours earlier. At one point, the Knicks were a paltry 2-of-19 from beyond the arc, and it’s hard to imagine New York replicating that performance in a game where the team should be able to play a lot looser and not overthink things too much. Furthermore, Mike Brown and the coaching staff were able to adapt on the fly in Game 1, and might’ve found the key to ignite the Knicks offense in this series. Brown swapped out Josh Hart for Landry Shamet and the Knicks went five out midway through the 4th quarter — leading to plenty of space for Jalen Brunson to consistently get to his spot and find easy success against the Cleveland defense. If the Cavaliers send more bodies at Brunson in this game, the experienced point guard will be able to spread the ball to the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Shamet, leading to plenty of advantageous situations for New York.

On the other side of the ball, the Cavs can’t be expected to knock down 16 more threes against a Knicks defense that is playing at a very high level at the moment. It also remains to be seen if Donovan Mitchell is fully healthy after he appeared to injure his ankle in the fourth quarter of Game 1. If the Cavaliers top scorer is anything less than 100% healthy, it’s hard to see Cleveland being able to stay with a Knicks team that is considerably more rested and should be buoyed by the momentum of Tuesday’s victory. All things considered, I’ll lay the points with New York at MSG.

Cavaliers vs Knicks predictions: Knicks -6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Knicks -7.

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Narrative drives betting markets deep into the postseason, and right now the public narrative heavily favors Oklahoma City after its dominant Game 2 response. The Thunder did what elite teams are expected to do, bounce back after a heartbreaking double-overtime loss in Game 1 and reassert control. Naturally, bettors are now gravitating toward OKC again.

But the line itself tells a different story. Despite the Thunder’s convincing Game 2 win and overall championship pedigree, San Antonio returns home favored in Game 3. That is not accidental. Oddsmakers clearly respect how the Spurs match up with Oklahoma City, particularly in their own building where San Antonio’s energy, defensive intensity, and pace all elevate.

It is also important to remember that this matchup has troubled the Thunder all season long. Do you remember December? When there were repeated discussions and press conferences about Oklahoma City struggling to fully solve San Antonio’s. Victor Wembanyama remains the central problem OKC must account for on every possession and there is no reason to suspect that he can’t do damage again in Game 3 and lead the Spurs to another victory. Game 1 may have required heroics, but it also reinforced that the Spurs can absolutely compete in this series. In a matchup increasingly looking destined for 7 games, backing San Antonio at home is the right side.

Thunder vs Spurs prediction: San Antonio -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2.