NBA Picks

This matchup is less about who’s better on paper and more about how perception shapes price. Houston’s name value has skyrocketed since the offseason after landing Kevin Durant — a move that instantly pushed the Rockets into the national conversation as “contenders” after last year’s playoff run. The overtime classic where they lost by a point at OKC on opening night substantiated that claim. But what have they done since then? Beat the Nets? Wow. Who cares.

Toronto, meanwhile, has fallen completely off the radar, viewed as a fading Eastern Conference bottom-feeder. That’s what the market sees — but the market often inflates numbers precisely because of those narratives.

Both teams enter with just one but we reiterate Houston’s lone victory came against Brooklyn, a team struggling to find its identity and offering little resistance. Toronto’s win? A 20-point demolition of Atlanta on the road — that says more. Yet here we are with Houston laying six points simply because of brand bias and Durant’s presence.

Public sentiment and hype tend to push lines beyond fair value, and this number reflects exactly that. Houston’s perception is doing the heavy lifting here, not their on-court performance. The Raptors, though flawed, have the grit and offensive upside to keep this tight — and perhaps even steal it outright. Take the points and don’t be surprised if the underdog makes some noise.

Rockets vs Raptors prediction: Raptors +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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Orlando hasn’t covered a spread in six straight games, dating back to last year’s postseason. They’re just 1–5 straight up in that run, which has tanked their market credibility. Meanwhile, Detroit has looked the part early at 2–2 both SU and ATS. Yet despite that contrast, the Magic are the favorites here — a subtle but meaningful signal from oddsmakers.

Both teams play with defensive intensity, but Orlando is better suited to thrive in a grind-it-out game. The Magic rebound better, protect the rim, and limit three-point opportunities — all crucial traits when scoring opportunities are scarce. Detroit, conversely, depends more on transition and tempo, areas Orlando naturally controls.

When an unpopular team opens as chalk against a “more respectable” side, it usually means one thing: the line is telling the real story. Orlando’s value is hidden beneath recent results, and this is the ideal buy-low spot.

The Magic’s physicality and defensive fundamentals give them the edge in what will be a low scoring game.

Magic vs Pistons prediction: Magic -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Sacramento Kings make the second stop on a four-game road trip on Wednesday night against the Chicago Bulls. The Kings opened the trip with an 107-101 loss against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, although Sacto did grab the cover. Rookie Nique Clifford is out with a hamstring, and Keegan Murray is nursing a thumb injury, so it’s bad news for the Kings to be shorthanded against the unbeaten Bulls as the road trip continues. In this series, oddly enough, the road team has won the past five meetings outright. However, the Bulls are also 3-0 against the spread (ATS) in the past three installments.

Chicago has started the season on fire, winning and covering all three games to date. It isn’t just beating tomato cans, either, upending the Detroit Pistons at home, and the Orlando Magic on the road as a 6-point underdog. Defense has been a hallmark, allowing 111 or fewer points twice, while racking up at least 110 points in each of the three victories. Nikola Vucevic has been on fire, averaging 20.0 PPG with 13.0 RPG and 4.3 APG, while PG Josh Giddey has been wonderful with 19.3 PPG, 8.7 RPG and 6.3 APG. Look for the Bulls to get the job done again Wednesday.

Kings vs Bulls prediction: Bulls -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.

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Hardly anyone is surprised the East champs are off to an 0-3 start to the year. The Indiana Pacers have been ravaged by injuries to start the year, as things stand they might not even make it to the play-in tournament. Wednesday sees Indy head to Dallas to face a Mavs team that’s only 1-3 SU to start the year, perhaps this is an opportunity for them to grab their first win of the season? Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin join the already injured Tyrese Haliburton on the sidelines. That means it’ll be up to Pascal Siakam and Aaron Nesmith to keep the Pacers afloat here, will that be enough against the Mavs?

Anthony Davis should have a field day scoring the ball here – the Pacers allow 53.3 points per game inside the paint, that’s in the bottom part of the NBA. The former Laker has been the only bright spot for Dallas in the early going this season, averaging 24.7 points and 12 rebounds per game. What is worrying if you’re a Mavericks supporter is the fact that they’re just 4-11 ATS in 15 home games, teams aren’t fearful when they come play at the American Airlines Center. Rookie sensation Cooper Flagg had a tough night in his last game vs OKC scoring just 2 points in what was his worst game as a pro.

With so many injuries to both rosters and neither side impressing in the opening week, it’s hard to pick out a winner here. What I do believe though is that we will see a lot of points. The over has cashed in 5 of 7 meetings, the two teams are averaging a combined 238 points per game in the last 10 head-to-head. Don’t expect to set a lot of defense played here, back the points.

Pacers vs Mavericks prediction: Over 228.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable up to 229.5.

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A couple of Zion highlights is the only thing Pelicans fans can talk about these days as their team is yet to win a game in 3 attempts to start the season. They just got pummeled by the Boston Celtics at home 122-90, without Zion who is dealing with a foot issue. Now the Pels head out on the road to Denver, for a date with the high flying Nuggets and their superstar is once again questionable. This is a lottery team at best when at full strength, so it’s quite clear why they are heavy underdogs ahead of Wednesday’s clash.

After their OT defeat at Golden State, the Nuggets have picked up two double-digit wins over Phoenix and Minnesota. The team has looked very sharp, especially on offense where they lead the league averaging 123.1 points per 100 possessions. That’s almost 20 points more than what New Orleans is averaging, the Nuggets have beaten this team in 7 of 10 meetings and they’re also 6-1 ATS in 7 against them at Ball Arena. Cameron Johnson is the only injury concern for Denver, but even he is only day-to-day with a shoulder issue.

Without their best player and shooting the 3rd lowest three-point percentage in the league, I’m afraid the Pelicans can’t hope for much ahead of this game. Barring an unexpected turn of events, Denver should dominate right from the get-go. Back the Nuggets.

Pelicans vs Nuggets Predictions: Nuggets -12.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable up to -14.5.

The Portland Trail Blazers kick off a three-game road trip in Salt Lake City against the Utah Jazz. Both of these teams have been cover kings, as the Blazers are 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Jazz are 3-0 ATS. Portland is coming off a stunning 122-108 win and cover on the road against the Los Angeles Lakers, its second 10-point win of the season. The Blazers have scored 114 or more points in three of four games so far, and that has coincided with a 3-1 mark to the Over so far. Defense has struggled for Portland, too, allowing at least 114 points in three outings.

For the Jazz, they’ve been a tough team to figure, but so far they’re overshooting expectations. Utah pounded the Clippers 129-108 in the opener as a 9.5-point underdog, cashing the Over, before traveling to Sacramento and falling by one in a low-scoring game. It returned home, and it exorcised its demons against Phoenix, winning 138-134 in OT, snapping a 10-game losing streak in the series. Utah has cashed high in two of three games, rolling up at least 129 points twice so far. We should see nice end-to-end action in Utah’s capital city.

Over 233.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to 234.5.

The Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 5 days ago on the back of Luca Doncic, who went off for 49 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists. Unfortunately for the Lakers, Doncic won’t be available for Wednesday night’s contest in Minneapolis as he deals with a left finger sprain and a lower left leg contusion. Fortunately for the Lakers, the Timberwolves are dealing with injuries themselves, as Anthony Edwards will be sidelined with a right hamstring strain. Edwards went for 31 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists in their matchup less than a week ago today. However, I believe the loss of Doncic is a much bigger loss for the Lakers than Edwards is for Minnesota.

Not only is Doncic out, but LeBron James has yet to suit up for the Lakers, leaving Austin Reaves to take on the main scoring role for Los Angeles. Minnesota can still run their offense through Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels, and it should give them a significant advantage in this matchup. Minnesota also has home court advantage in this game, and it will be their third consecutive game at home, whereas the Lakers have to travel for this game and then have to travel to Memphis for a game against the Grizzlies on Friday. With that said, I’m going to lay the 7 points with the Timberwolves on their home floor.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction: Timberwolves -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.