NBA Picks

Atlanta’s loss to New York ended a 4-game win streak by the Hawks, but they’re hoping to get back on track as they visit the Cavaliers on Wednesday. This team has won 17 of 20 games, with a bit of luck they could have pushed the Knicks game into OT, but McCollum’s half court heave came too late. The Hawks have a one game edge on the Raptors for the 5th seed, that would actually match them up with the Cavs in a potential 1st Round series. In theory the Hawks could risk it and try falling down to 6th to face the Knicks, but that would be a risky proposition with the 76ers and Magic lurking right behind them.

For Cleveland things are pretty straight forward – the worst they can do is finish 4th, but with a bit of luck they could still overtake the Knicks in 3rd if they wanted to. With 8 wins in 10 games they are one of the more in-form teams in the Conference, their last win saw them put up an impressive 142 points on the Memphis Grizzlies for their 3rd straight triumph overall. Donovan Mitchell opted to sit that game due to an ankle issue, he is once again listed as questionable for tonight, but given the magnitude of the game I think he guts it out and plays. He’s put on a show in both meetings vs the Hawks this season, averaging 39.5 points on over 55% from the field and 50% from three. Together with Harden he has formed one of the more prolific offensive duos in the NBA this season.

These two teams will meet up one more time in Atlanta on Friday. The Cavs have been a well-oiled machine at home lately, winning 11 of 14 games. Playing there should give them the edge in my opinion. These next two meetings will tell us just how important is to have home court advantage in the postseason. I’ll side with the Cavs in this one.

Hawks vs Cavaliers prediction: Cavaliers -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This is a straightforward Under, it’s one where both teams naturally push the game in that direction. Minnesota and Orlando share a similar identity—physical, defensive-minded, and comfortable condensing games into half-court battles. When those styles collide, pace drops and possessions become more deliberate, which is exactly what you want when targeting an Under in this range. Orlando’s home environment amplifies this even further. The Magic lean heavily into their defensive identity on their own floor, turning games into grind-it-out affairs where clean looks are limited and scoring runs are difficult to sustain. That’s critical against a Minnesota team that already prefers this type of game script, especially on the road where they’re more inclined to control tempo and stay within structure.

Minnesota’s 124-point output against Indiana in route to a 20-point win (The total hit 228 which is key here) is misleading in this context. That game came against a far less disciplined defense. Orlando presents a completely different challenge with length, physicality, and resistance at every level. For this total to go Over, Minnesota would need to replicate that offensive efficiency, which is unlikely here. With both teams comfortable slowing things down and forcing tough possessions, this sets up as a controlled, physical game that struggles to reach this number

Timberwolves vs Magic prediction: Under 228 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Dallas is in a dead heat with the Memphis Grizzlies for that elusive 13th spot in the West standings. Both teams are doing their best to not move up the standings, in order to get a higher chance at cracking the top 4 in this year’s Draft order. The Mavs just lost to the Clippers by double-digits, putting up decent resistance through the first 3 quarters but then they simply let their foot off the gas pedal in the 4th and lost. Cooper Flagg had yet another solid outing with 25 points and 9 rebounds, I think we should keep an eye on him in Wednesday’s game as well as he tries to put up numbers to improve his case for winning the ROY honors.

Following last night’s loss to Houston, the Suns can no longer mathematically catch the 6th seeded Timberwolves. With 3 games remaining they still need a couple of wins to wrap up the 7th seed ahead of the Clippers, which gives them home court advantage in the play-in games. They’ve beaten the Mavs fairly convincingly both times they’ve played this season, putting up 123 and 120 points. With the likes of Booker, Brooks and Jalen Green all healthy, this is a really solid opportunity for them to work on their chemistry together. Especially for Brooks who is still finding his footing after coming back from a long layoff due to injury.

Playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back could be a bit of an issue for Phoenix as they have a losing record in this scenario. For the Mavs it makes very little sense to be competitive here, so expect Cooper to get numbers but ultimately the Suns come out on top. Back Phoenix.

Mavericks vs Suns prediction: Suns -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

At first glance, this number looks a bit soft even if Oklahoma City should control this game comfortably, the matchup says otherwise. The Clippers are one of the few teams capable of disrupting the Thunder’s rhythm, particularly at home where they play with more control and defensive intensity. The key here is pace. The Clippers slow games down, limit possessions, and force opponents into half-court execution. That’s where margins shrink and spreads become harder to cover. This turns the game into a possession-by-possession battle rather than an attempt at a track meet where the Thunder can capitalize on miscues and turnovers. In this kind of environment, efficiency matters more than volume, and the Clippers are disciplined enough to stay within range.

Home court is another layer. Los Angeles tends to elevate its play in this setting, particularly in games that require physicality and structure. They’ve already shown resilience this season by climbing back into relevance despite an atrocious start, and this is the type of spot where that identity shows. The Thunder can still win, but covering requires separation. The Clippers’ style is specifically built to prevent that, making the points valuable here in a spot with significant upset potential.

Thunder vs Clippers prediction: Clippers +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.