NBA Picks

Fresh off their convincing 19-point win over Washington, the Phoenix Suns head to Miami in hopes of winning their 4th game in a row. It’s been a remarkable turnaround for this franchise, so remarkable that they find themselves ahead of the Rockets in the standings despite trading away their best player to that team in the offseason. Phoenix has been a goldmine when it comes to covering the spread. They have the NBA’s best ATS record at 28-11, equaling to a success rate of almost 72%. Apart from Jalen Green being out, they are basically at full strength going into Tuesday’s game vs the Heat.

Miami too has been a solid bet against the spread, covering in 22 of 39 games. However, their recent form hasn’t been all that good with just 1 win in 5 games, including 3 consecutive losses by an average of more than 20 points per loss. All 3 of those were on the road, Tuesday sees them return to South Beach where they are 13-6 SU for the season. The offense has just gone ice-cold, in the loss to Indiana they knocked down just 4 threes. It’s not often you’ll see this team finish under 100 points, this has happened twice in their last 3 games.

Phoenix has been a very reliable bet this season, I feel like they have the offensive firepower to hang with the Heat in this game. It’s pretty much a toss up game in my opinion, but I have slightly more faith in the team that’s won 3 in a row as opposed to the one that just got blown out by Indiana and Minnesota this past week. Take Phoenix outright.

Suns vs Heat prediction: Suns ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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There won’t be as much star power on the floor as there could be when the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night. Minnesota is missing both Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert. As such, my Timberwolves vs Bucks prediction is for the home team to win and cover. Edwards is basically out due to load management, as the Thunder don’t want a minor foot issue to get worse. Gobert is suspended for 1 game after incurring his fifth flagrant foul. This seems like too much production on both ends of the floor for the visitors to overcome. Edwards is averaging 28.9 ppg and Gobert is averaging a double-double. Without Edwards, only 1 guy on the roster is scoring more than 14.7 ppg (Julius Randle at 22.0).

Milwaukee is in better shape. Myles Turner is questionable with an illness, but he has not missed a game all season long. You have to think the Bucks newcomer will suit up if he is anywhere close to 100 percent. Other than that, the home side is good to go. Giannis Antetokounmpo and company is at least somewhat decent at home (9-9) compared to a dreadful 8-13 at home. Minnesota is a solid 11-8 on the road, but that pales in comparison to its 15-6 home record. All things considered, Milwaukee should be a slightly bigger favorite in front of its own fans when Minnesota is missing its best all-around player and also its best defender.

Timberwolves vs Bucks prediction: Milwaukee -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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Victor Wembanyama and his San Antonio Spurs look to deliver yet another knock-out punch to the defending champs Oklahoma City Thunder as these teams meet up for the 4th time this regular season. San Antonio is up 3-0, winning the last 2 meetings by double-digits. The most notable win was in the NBA Cup semis though, ever since that game the dominance of the Thunder has waned a bit. On the other hand, San Antonio has remained very stable and still holds the 2nd seed in the Western Conference with a really solid outlook on the remainder of the season.

No Isaiah Hartenstein in this game for the Thunder, a big blow potentially going up against the 7-foot-5 (?) alien Victor Wembanyama. Even with Hartenstein the Thunder have struggled to keep teams off the glass this season, ranking only 21st in opponent rebounds per game allowing 54.6. Over their 3 most recent games that number is up to 62.3 per game, I can already picture the alarm bells going off in the pre-game meeting, highlighting just how important winning the rebounding battle will be here. Apart from that issue, I don’t think there’s anything else that needs to be highlighted here. OKC has failed to cover in 5 consecutive games, but they are still a remarkable 17-3 SU in 20 home games.

The Spurs have had the Thunders’ number this season in all 3 meetings and I’m continue to backing them until that changes. They’re once again heavy underdogs according to the bookmakers, even a 7-point win for OKC and this bet cashes. Back the Spurs on Tuesday.

Spurs vs Thunder prediction: Spurs +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Portland Trail Blazers head to the Bay Area to battle the Golden State Warriors, and so far this season, so good for the Blazers. They’re 3-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in three meetings with the Warriors. That streak against the Dubs will really be put to the test, however, as leading scorer Deni Avdija (26.1 PPG) will be out, and third-leading scorer Jeremi Grant (20.0 PPG) is listed as doubtful. If Grant is sidelined, it’s going to be an uphill battle for Portland to hang with Golden State, let alone win.

For Golden State, it is good for 120 or more points scored in two of the past three games, and 119 or more points in nine of the past 12 outings. The Over has cashed at a 6-4 clip in the past 10 games. However, when these two teams get together, the offense picks up substantially. In the only previous meeting at Chase Center, Portland won 127-123 with a total of 236.5. In the two games in Portland, the teams had 258 and 267 combined points. The Over is also 5-1 in the past six installments in this series dating back to Oct. 23, 2024. Look for points to be plentiful, especially for the Warriors.

Trail Blazers vs Warriors prediction: Over 223.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 224.5.

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