NBA Picks

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors will go head-to-head for the third time this season when they meet again at Golden State on Friday night. Oklahoma City dominated the first 2 matchups, and it would be no surprise if more of the same transpires in this one. My Thunder vs. Warriors pick is for the visitors to win and cover. OKC cruised 126-102 at home on November 11; even when the defending NBA champions had to go on the road, they still took care of business against the Dubs 124-112 on December 2.

Exactly 1 month later, I see no reason why the tide will turn. Oklahoma City is without big men Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) and Jaylin Williams (heel), but reserve center Branden Carlson knows what he’s doing out there. The Utah product delivered 12 points, 7 rebounds and a block in 20 minutes of work during Wednesday’s 124-95 rout of Portland. Moreover, Golden State isn’t really a team that can exploit an opponent’s weakness down low. The Warriors, of course, are led by PG Stephen Curry and SF Jimmy Butler. Their center is Quinten Post — not exactly someone the Thunder have to worry about when they are playing defense. Head coach Steve Kerr’s crew is decent at home, but it is coming off an Eastern Conference road trip in which it played 3 games in the last 5 days. Even with a day off on Thursday, fatigue could be a factor. Give me OKC to win big…again.

Thunder vs Warriors prediction: Thunder -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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KD and company have held the fort down in Sengun’s absence, and the Rockets all of a sudden find themselves on a 3-game win streak. Their latest victim were the Indiana Pacers, and although they didn’t cover in that game, the Rockets will be happy with the result. Sengun’s absence has left a bit of a void in the middle which Steven Adams has filled. However, the latest injury report has Adams listed as questionable, which could be problematic for Houston’s front court. Tari Eason and Clint Capela are also on the injury report, so the Rockets might struggle with size in this game — which isn’t something we’re used to seeing.

Despite their most recent loss to Golden State, I have really enjoyed watching these Brooklyn Nets over the past couple of weeks. They’ve completely transformed themselves into an alite defensive team, something you don’t see often in today’s NBA. The last 10 games have seen them have the league’s best defensive efficiency, allowing just 105.6 points per 100 possessions. Sharpshooter Michael Porter Jr. is flourishing in his role as the team’s leading scorer, plus Cam Thomas recently returned from injury which should also be a boost to their scoring abilities.

Unless I’m missing something very obvious, I am not entirely sure why the Rockets are double-digit favorites here. They face a tough-minded Nets team, and it won’t be easy scoring on them — even for a motivated Kevin Durant facing a former team of his. I’m happy to risk it a bit and take Brooklyn on the money line. For those who want a safer option, I’d recommend backing the Nets plus the spread.

Houston Rockets vs Brooklyn Nets Predictions: Brooklyn Nets ML is available at +375 at time of publishing.

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The Detroit Pistons must be glad to return home to begin the New Year, as 7 of their last 8 games to close out 2025 came on the road. Detroit managed to go 5-3 over that 8-game stretch, including a 128-106 win over the Los Angeles Lakers on December 30, in which the Lakers were outscored 58-41 in the second half. Now 7 of Detroit’s next 8 games will be on its home court, beginning Thursday night when the visiting Miami Heat make the trip north. Miami last played on Monday and cruised to a 24-point win over the shorthanded Denver Nuggets, who are without Nikola Jokic for at least the next couple of weeks. The victory for the Heat extended their win streak to 3 games, with their other 2 wins coming against the Hawks and Pacers.

Miami averaged 138.3 points over their 3-game win streak, but Detroit is certainly a step up in competition as they top the Eastern Conference standings. The Pistons rank 2nd behind the Thunder in defensive rating, and over their last 8 games they have allowed just 110.7 points per game to their opponents. Aside from Tobias Harris being listed as doubtful with left hip soreness and Tyler Herro remaining out for Miami, there are no major injury updates to be aware of. These teams last played one another at the end of November in Miami and the Pistons not only covered as 3.5-point underdogs, but they won the game outright without Jalen Duren. With their leading rebounder and second leading scorer in the lineup on Thursday, I like Detroit to win and cover the spread on their home court.

Heat vs Pistons prediction: Detroit Pistons -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Tyrese Maxey heads back home to Dallas, as he looks to lead his 76ers to another win over his hometown Mavericks. Philly dominated the first meeting, winning by 7 behind Maxey’s 38 points. Nothing too drastic has happened since that game played 10 days ago. The Sixers will be encouraged here after getting a 34 and 10 performance from Joel Embiid in the OT win at Memphis the other day. Taking care of the ball has been the key for the Sixers this season, they rank 3rd best in turnover percentage over the past 10 games, and if they can limit those, they’ll be in good shape here.

Dallas got a productive game from Anthony Davis in that first meeting, as he finished with 24 and 15 rebounds. However, Thursday night might see the Mavs have to rely on others considering AD is still out injured. The defense has really suffered without his presence down low; Dallas has dropped 3 games in a row and 4 of its last 5 games against not-so-elite opponents. Cooper Flagg is leading the charge, but relying on a rookie to take you to the promise land isn’t exactly something that can work in the long run in today’s NBA. From a bettors’ perspective the Mavs are an unreliable 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, and they’ve lost 7 of 10 meetings against Philadelphia.

I have the Sixers sweeping the regular season series here. Maxey is on fire, and he’s going to show up playing in front of his friends and family in Dallas. There could even be a Joel Embiid sighting here, he should be able to assert himself down low with the Mavs lacking a couple of quality big me. Take Philadelphia.

76ers vs Mavericks predictions: Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Boston Celtics will have a chance to continue their winning ways when they take on the Sacramento Kings Thursday night in a nonconference matchup. The Celtics have a record of 20-12 this season, and a road record of 10-7. Boston has won 5 of its last 6 six games with its last win coming against the Utah Jazz 129-119. Derrick White led the team in scoring with 27 points, and Jaylen Brown added 23 points and 10 assists.

The Kings have a record this season of 8-25 with a record at home of 5-10. Sacramento has lost 3 of its last 4 games, and its last loss came against the Los Angeles Clippers 131-90. Nique Clifford led the team in scoring with 18 points, but the Kings lost the turnover battle in that game 19 to 4.

These teams are trending in opposite directions. As the calendar year switches to 2026, will these trends continue or will things remain the same? I would have a difficult time betting against the Celtics right now. All of December, they showed that they can succeed this season without Jayson Tatum. Brown has taken another step forward with possibly his best month of his career, averaging 31.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.4 assists. Brown just had a streak of 9 straight 30-point games broken against Utah, so he will look to get back on the scoreboard tonight. White also stepped up in a big way; he averaged 22.3 points per game in December and made 50 3-pointers in 12 games. Both Brown and White will go against a Kings’ team that will be without Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis. The Kings have lost their last 2 games by 24 points and 41 points. If they can’t keep the Celtics’ stars in check, they could be in for another blowout loss. 

Celtics vs Kings prediction: Boston Celtics -9.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Utah Jazz will travel on the road to start the new year and they will take on the Los Angeles Clippers. The Jazz have a record of 12-20 this season, and they are 4-9 when playing on the road. Utah has won 2 of its last 3 games, but they lost their previous game against the Boston Celtics 129-119. Keyonte George led the team in scoring with 37 points. George is currently 19th in the NBA in scoring at 24.6 points per game.

The Clippers have a record of 11-21 this season, but they are closer to .500 at home with a record of 7-8 on their court. Los Angeles has won its last 5 games with its last win coming against the Sacramento Kings 131-90. Kawhi Leonard led the team in scoring with 33 points. His 33 point effort against Sacramento was an encore of the 55 points he scored against the Detroit Pistons last Sunday. 

It’s exciting to see the Clippers begin to play better. Los Angeles had a lot of expectations going into this season, and they seemingly fell flat on their face. This team is making a push to get back into the playoff picture, and its 5-game winning streak has been fueled by Leonard — who is averaging 37.8 points per game during the that recent stretch. The Clippers have won these games by an average of 21 points per game behind 16.8 made threes per game as a team. They have shot 43.8% from three-point range during the win streak, which is well above their season average of 36.6%.

The Jazz beat the Clippers in their last meeting back in October at a score of 129-108. With Keyonte George potentially out with an illness, Lauri Markkanen out with a knee injury, and Jusuf Nurkic out with a toe injury, tonight is a great opportunity for the Clippers to keep their hot streak rolling.

Jazz vs Clippers prediction: Los Angeles Clippers -12.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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