NBA Picks

Christmas Day and Madison Square Garden go together like peanut butter and jelly. The New York Knicks and the holiday spotlight are inseparable, and bettors pay a premium every time. That premium is clearly built into this number. The Cleveland Cavaliers, once upon a time, were short underdogs, and have steadily drifted to a bigger price despite no dramatic shift in on-court matchup quality.

Yes, Cleveland has been a gross disappointment against the spread this season, and that inefficiency weighs heavily on perception. However, inefficiency is also what creates opportunity. The Knicks’ ambitions, their NBA Cup win, and living annually in the Christmas Day spotlight has inflated the number next to their name before we go any further. If Cleveland were more profitable overall and more importantly if this game were played on a random January night, Cleveland would not be catching this type of price. The Cavaliers have the tools to compete here and win, not just cover. So we’ll approach it as such. We’ll go in for the kill here and take The Land outright to become Ebenezer Scrooge.

Cavaliers vs Knicks prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers ML (+200) available at time of publishing. Playable to +170.

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Dare we say that the San Antonio Spurs have figured out the Oklahoma City Thunder? It sure feels that way after Tuesdays’ 130-110 win for the Spurs at home over the defending champs. They are now up 2-0 in the regular season series, and yet, the oddsmakers are still not showing them any respect as the spread on San Antonio is once again almost double-figures on Christmas Day. Granted, they are playing on the road, where the Thunder are 14-0 SU this season, but surely San Antonio can keep things close here? Even without a proper De’Aaron Fox game, they beat this team, plus their win streak has now reached 7 in a row. During this stretch, they’ve covered the spread 5 times.

It’s back to the drawing board for the defending champs, who are puzzled as to why this matchup is proving to be so difficult. SGA delivered his usual 33 points and 8 assists, but the rest of the team didn’t follow suit. The dream of breaking the all-time win record would take a major hit if OKC lost yet again to San Antonio, especially from a morale point of view given that this team is unbeaten at home. There’s quite a few players on the injury report for the Christmas Day game. Most notably, Ajay Mitchell is questionable due to a concussion, while Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams are both game-time decisions with face and heel injuries, respectively.

Since the NBA Cup semi-final loss, the champs have exchanged wins and losses over their next 4 games. Tuesday’s loss in San Antonio has me questioning if they can beat this team, let alone cover the massive spread. I’m way more comfortable backing the Spurs as road underdogs, as they’ve won 5 of 6 away from home and are 4-1 ATS in 5 meetings.

Spurs vs Thunder prediction: San Antonio Spurs +9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Dallas Mavericks spent most of this market cycle as a +4.5 underdog, a number that reasonably reflected the matchup. The subsequent line moves aren’t about a sudden on-court downgrade — it’s about perception. Dallas hasn’t lived up to preseason hype, while the Golden State Warriors benefit from brand power, Christmas Day familiarity, and public trust.

That trust is misleading. Recent results show Dallas is far more competitive than their record suggests. The Mavericks have beaten teams like Denver, Miami, Houston, and Detroit — clubs that are every bit more capable than this version of Golden State. The Warriors are no longer some untouchable juggernaut; they’re the chalk because they have the equity and casual appeal on this stage. When the market stretches a line based on narrative rather than matchup, value appears. Dallas can not only compete here, it can win outright. However, we aren’t asking the Mavs to do that. With extra points added purely due to perception, grabbing the Mavericks is the sharp side.

Mavericks vs Warriors prediction: Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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For much of the market cycle, the Los Angeles Lakers were positioned as short favorites, even as Houston surged early and the Lakers were hampered with injuries along with a sluggish start. Now, after both teams are playing winning basketball in the heart of the playoff race, the market has flipped to Houston as a favorite — and in doing so, handed value to the Lakers.

The Houston Rockets deserve credit. They’re a force on the glass and have the ability to stretch the floor. However, the Lakers can match that. Both rosters feature Hall of Fame legends and clutch playmakers. This is a game that would be too close to call if it were a horse race. When a game profiles as a toss up, the prudent choice becomes simple: take the plus money. The Lakers were once favored in this spot, and now they’re available at an underdog price due to one-sided Rockets action rather than the match-up itself. That’s the definition of finding equity in the market. In games like this, price outweighs preference — and the Lakers are the right side in this situation.

Rockets vs Lakers prediction: Los Angeles Lakers ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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On Christmas Day we will see the 3rd meeting this season between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Denver Nuggets. The first 2 of these contests combined for 235 and 241 points, respectively. With the play that the Nuggets have shown of late, we should see the higher scoring version of this matchup on Christmas. 8 of the last 10 games the Nuggets have played in surpassing the combined 240-point mark. The hosts will be coming into this game after combining for 260-points with the Dallas Mavericks, a team in 11th in pace over the last 10 games. With the Timberwolves 12th in that category, we could expect a similar outcome.

The hosts have been 2nd in the league in fast break points per game over the last 10 contests. Against a Timberwolves team that has a couple of traditional bigs in their starting 5 in Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle, it should prove effective once more. However, the team has ranked just 22nd in the league in defensive rating. They have had issues slowing down opposing wings, with Kevin Durant and Cooper Flagg both managing 30 or more points in recent games. Anthony Edwards should be next in line. The hosts have also been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 10 games, making 43.3% of their attempts. However, they have let their opponents make 40.3% of shots from deep themselves so expect a high scoring shootout to close out the Christmas slate.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets prediction: Over 239 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to over 240.