NBA Picks

Charlotte looks to bounce back from consecutive defeats to Milwaukee and Golden State, as it heads to Fiserv Forum for another date with the Bucks. This matchup concludes a 4-game regular-season series, with Milwaukee leading 2-1. How exactly do the Hornets get a win here? For starters, they’ll need to improve defensively after allowing 123 and 132 points in their last 2 games. But is it realistic to expect from them to slow down Giannis? Charlotte is among the worst teams in the league when it comes to opponent points in the paint. The Hornets allow 53.5 points per game in that area — and with Ryan Kalkbrenner and Mason Plumlee both out, they will be at Giannis’ mercy in the paint.

The Greek Freak’s return sparked the Bucks to back-to-back wins at Chicago and at Charlotte, but they fumbled the ball in their last game — which they lost by a point to the lowly Wizards. Even 33 points and 15 rebounds by Giannis weren’t enough to beat a team that’s not even close to the play-in tournament. I’m hoping the loss is a wake-up call of sorts, as the Bucks cannot afford to lose those types of games if they want to make up ground in the Eastern Conference. Winning the next 2 is a must for head coach Doc Rivers and his men, because the schedule gets a lot tougher toward the middle of January.

Just 4 days ago we saw the Bucks win by 10 points in this matchup, being ahead for 60% of that game. As Giannis gets back into rhythm following his injury, the minutes played will only go up — and so will his productivity. His Bucks are 8-2 SU in 10 meetings and a perfect 5-0 SU in 5 games at home against Charlotte. I’ll roll with Milwaukee.

Hornets vs Bucks prediction: Milwaukee -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Friday night will feature a matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Chicago Bulls, and it will be the third time these teams meet this season. The Bulls defeated the Magic 110-98 on October 25th, and the Magic defeated the Bulls 125-120 on December 1st. The Magic have a record of 19-15 and a road record of 8-9. Orlando has won 2 of its last 3 games, and its last win came against the Indiana Pacers 112-110. Paolo Banchero led the team in scoring with 29 points, including a go-ahead shot with 7 seconds remaining.

The Bulls have a record of 16-17 this season, and they are 9-8 when playing on the road. Chicago has lost 2 of its last 3 games, but the Bulls are coming off a 134-118 win against the New Orleans Pelicans. Isaac Okoro led the team in scoring with 24 points, and Tre Jones added 20 points and 12 assists. 

Injuries have played a major factor on both teams in the past month. The Magic have been playing without their top scorer Franz Wagner, who averages 22.7 points per game, but overall, they are starting to get healthier. Jalen Suggs returned to the lineup against Indiana, and he contributed 11 points.

The Bulls are trending in the opposite direction with injuries, as both Josh Giddey and Coby White went down with recently. Giddey and White are the Bulls’ two main playmakers, and most of the offense is run through one of these two on most possessions. We saw the Bulls adjust against New Orleans, but the end result may change against a team with a winning record. The Bulls have been inconsistent all season, and I don’t feel comfortable backing them without their two best players.

Magic vs Bulls prediction: Orlando Magic -5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The New Orleans Pelicans enter this matchup significantly shorthanded, with Saddiq Bey and Derik Queen both ruled out, further thinning a roster that has already struggled with consistency on both ends of the floor. Those absences hurt New Orleans’ spacing, secondary scoring and rebounding, making it harder to sustain offense for 4 quarters. Defensively, the Pelicans have been vulnerable all season, frequently allowing opponents to score efficiently in transition and the half court. With fewer reliable scoring options available, New Orleans is likely to experience extended offensive droughts — especially against teams that can control the glass and tempo.

Portland has been far from reliable when laying points, going 3-9 ATS as favorites, but this shapes up as a potential buy-low spot. The Trail Blazers have shown improved offensive balance recently, with better production from their young core and more consistent interior play anchoring their half-court offense. Portland’s ability to rebound and generate second-chance points is a key edge against an undermanned Pelicans frontcourt, and its depth advantage becomes more meaningful given New Orleans’ injuries. While Portland isn’t a team to blindly trust in the favorite role, this matchup is situationally different. The Pelicans lack the personnel to exploit the Blazers’ usual weaknesses.

Trail Blazers vs Pelicans prediction: Portland -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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It’s not easy to write off a team just 2 months into the season, but I think the Sacramento Kings are pretty much out of the playoff race for good. With just 8 wins in 34 games and injuries to Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis, there seems to be no end in sight for their woes. They’ve lost 3 consecutive games by double-digits, and on the road, they are just 3-15 SU and in the midst of a 5-game losing streak. It’s hard to win in today’s NBA without a consistent three-point shot, and Sacramento is currently 30th in threes made per game and 23rd in three-point percentage.

Phoenix, on the other hand, ranks top-10 in both of those categories, and that’s been their calling card this entire season. Well, that and effort on the defensive end. The Suns own the 11th-best defensive rating in the Association, and in their last 3 of 4 wins, they’ve held opponents to 108 or fewer points. Jalen Green’s return from injury is nearing, as he has been out for a while with a hamstring problem. Grayson Allen has also had minor knee issues which have cost him a few games, but he too should be available soon. The situation in Phoenix is very bright at the moment, especially from a betting perspective, as the Suns have covered the spread in 6 of 7 games overall and in 12 of 16 at home.

Covering as double-digit favorites is never easy, but the Kings are in disarray right now. Russell Westbrook appears to be the only one who’s still putting in the effort; the last 3 games have seen them score only 106, 90 and 101 points. I’ll back the Suns who are 10-5 SU in home games this season.

Kings vs Suns Predictions: Phoenix Suns -11.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors will go head-to-head for the third time this season when they meet again at Golden State on Friday night. Oklahoma City dominated the first 2 matchups, and it would be no surprise if more of the same transpires in this one. My Thunder vs. Warriors pick is for the visitors to win and cover. OKC cruised 126-102 at home on November 11; even when the defending NBA champions had to go on the road, they still took care of business against the Dubs 124-112 on December 2.

Exactly 1 month later, I see no reason why the tide will turn. Oklahoma City is without big men Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) and Jaylin Williams (heel), but reserve center Branden Carlson knows what he’s doing out there. The Utah product delivered 12 points, 7 rebounds and a block in 20 minutes of work during Wednesday’s 124-95 rout of Portland. Moreover, Golden State isn’t really a team that can exploit an opponent’s weakness down low. The Warriors, of course, are led by PG Stephen Curry and SF Jimmy Butler. Their center is Quinten Post — not exactly someone the Thunder have to worry about when they are playing defense. Head coach Steve Kerr’s crew is decent at home, but it is coming off an Eastern Conference road trip in which it played 3 games in the last 5 days. Even with a day off on Thursday, fatigue could be a factor. Give me OKC to win big…again.

Thunder vs Warriors prediction: Thunder -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Los Angeles Lakers enter this matchup without Austin Reaves, but their offense has remained steady despite his absence, averaging around 115 points per game without him. Luka Doncic continues to orchestrate the offense at an elite level, controlling tempo and creating high quality looks for teammates. The Lakers’ improved spacing and ball movement have allowed role players to step into defined roles, helping L.A. maintain offensive efficiency even with rotation changes. Defensively, the Lakers have been more consistent at home, limiting easy transition buckets and forcing opponents into tougher half court possessions. The Lakers tend to score a lot in Crypto.com arena and against a weak Grizzlies team I think the Lakers should run away with this one.

The Memphis Grizzlies rely heavily on Ja Morant’s explosiveness, as he continues to lead the offense with elite downhill pressure and playmaking. While Memphis can push pace and score in bunches, defensive lapses have hurt them, particularly against teams that can exploit switches and attack the paint. With Memphis prone to defensive breakdowns and the Lakers proving they can score efficiently even without Reaves, this matchup sets up well for LA to control the flow. If the Lakers dictate tempo and limit Morant’s transition opportunities, they should be able to separate late.

Grizzlies vs Lakers prediction: Los Angeles -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Brooklyn Nets suffered a tough loss last night, falling to the Houston Rockets by a 24-point margin. While tonight they will be visiting a Washington Wizards team who have had far less success than their previous opponents this season, the odds might be stacked against the Nets. For one Michael Porter Jr. and Egor Denim both sat out last night’s game and are questionable to play in this one. They have also really struggled on the back end of back-to-backs this season. The Nets have lost all 5 games they have played with no night’s rest, with the average point differential in those games being -17.4. The Wizards will have a great chance to take advantage of this.

The Nets have had recent issues taking care of the ball. Over the last 10 games the team is just 26th in the league in opponent points off turnovers. With fatigue being a factor tonight, expect more mistakes than ever from the visitors. While their record might not show it, the Wizards do tend to up their game when playing at home, seeing a spike in shooting percentages across the board. With the extra possessions they should be able to generate tonight through turnovers, it should give them a great chance to come out as winners in the matchup. Especially if the visitors leading scorer this season once again does not take to the floor.

Nets vs Wizards prediction: Washington -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.

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The Indiana Pacers have seen their misfortunes continue, with a recent loss to the Orlando Magic extending their losing streak to 10 games. Today they will be up against a San Antonio Spurs team that is down 2 starters, with Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell unavailable. However, there is a lot of positive momentum for the team, with 8 wins from their last 10 games. They have also started to showcase what might be the leagues deepest backcourt with Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, which should to mitigate the loss of Vassell. Julian Champagnie is also coming into this game after making 11 threes in his last game and looks set to step up.

In terms of net offensive and defensive rating over the last 10 games, these teams could not be more opposite. The hosts are all the way down in 29th while the visiting Spurs are up in 2nd place. The main issue for the Pacers is their inability to score the ball, ranking 29th in true shooting percentage during that stretch. The hosts have also been dead last in second-chance points per game during that time while the Spurs have given up the fewest points in that category in the NBA. If the Spurs shut them down and close out defensive possessions as expected today, there should only be one outcome in this one. Back the Spurs to cover the spread.

Spurs vs Pacers prediction: San Antonio -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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The Nuggets enter this matchup severely shorthanded, with injuries piling up at the worst possible time. Nikola Jokic’s absence is the most significant blow, removing the clear-cut best player in the league and the centerpiece of Denver’s offensive identity. Jokic was operating at an MVP level before going down, and without his elite playmaking, scoring efficiency and floor control, the Nuggets become a drastically different team. Compounding the issue, Denver has also been dealing with missing rotation pieces like Cam Johnson, further thinning an already stressed lineup. Historically, the impact is clear: last season, the Nuggets averaged just 109 points per game in contests without Jokic — a massive drop from their normal offensive output, as possessions slow and shot quality declines.

Cleveland enters with talent but inconsistency, particularly on the offensive end. While the Cavaliers have the ability to score in bunches behind their guards, they have struggled to maintain efficiency game to game and often play at a more controlled pace, especially against teams that lack offensive firepower. This matchup does not necessarily profile as a shootout, with Denver likely leaning on defense and longer possessions to stay competitive, while Cleveland doesn’t profile as a team eager to push tempo unnecessarily. With the Nuggets missing their offensive engine and multiple contributors and the Cavaliers prone to uneven scoring stretches, the number feels inflated.

Nuggets vs Cavaliers prediction: Under 237.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 235.5.

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