NBA Picks

When these teams last met, the Cavaliers controlled the terms of engagement by dictating shot quality and keeping Orlando from turning the game into a grind. That’s important because the Magic thrive when games stay in the mud: physical possessions, limited spacing and opponents settling for tough 2-point shots. Cleveland flips that equation by stretching the floor and firing off threes at a clip. The Cavaliers’ identity leans heavily on perimeter creation and ball movement that leads to high-volume threes. When that machine is humming, it forces Orlando into unfamiliar territory — which is where defensive structure starts to crack. That’s how separation happens — through cumulative shot-value advantages.

Orlando’s defensive energy is much more impactful at home, where its crowd and familiarity help sustain that edge. On the road, that same style can slip — especially against an opponent comfortable playing fast and confidently from deep with home cooking behind it. The posted spread reflects that reality. There is no reason to suspect that the Cavaliers cannot replicate another double-digit win here in Cleveland. They have the recipe; all they need to is execute.

Magic vs Cavaliers prediction: Cleveland -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Chicago Bulls welcome the Los Angeles Lakers tonight in what should be an explosive matchup. Each of the last 3 games between these 2 clubs have cleared the combined 235-point mark, and recent form suggests this one could contain more of the same. The teams head into this contest relatively healthy, with Austin Reaves being the only long-term injury concern. The Bulls have recently welcomed back Josh Giddey from the sidelines. He has made an impact, too, as Chicago has won 4 straight. Over the last 10 games the Bulls have ranked third in the league in offensive rating — and with their star point guard back, they should have another strong showing on that front.

Both teams have had issues getting stops of late. Over those 10 games they are 19th and 24th in defensive rating. At the same time, both were in the top 10 of the league in fast-break points per game — which could really help up the tempo of this one. That should create more than enough possessions for both sides to take advantage of defensive lapses. With Nikola Vucevic and Deandre Ayton defending the rim, it is no surprise that these sides have struggled to defend down low. Over the last 10 games, these teams are 18th and 23rd in opponent points in the paint. With the Bulls second in 3-pointers made, too, they should have success scoring on multiple levels. All signs point to a high-scoring affair.

Los Angeles Lakers vs Chicago Bulls prediction: Over 235.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 236.5.

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Going to Europe and back has left a mark on these Grizzlies, who have lost both of their games since that trip. Not only did they lose, but last time out they also got destroyed by the New Orleans Pelicans — who put up 133 points on them in a 6-point upset. That type of performance on the defensive end is worrisome for the Grizzlies, but it’s not something we haven’t already seen this year. Ja Morant has also re-injured his elbow, which will sideline him for at least a month. As we get close to the trade deadline, there could be activity from the Grizzlies as they look to salvage what’s possible out of this season.

Meanwhile, the mood around the Rockets couldn’t be any different. They just celebrated a massive 7-point win on the road against the top team in the East (Detroit) despite not having Steven Adams inside. Kevin Durant once again flourished with 32 points, with a couple of unlikely heroes on the boards making up for Adams’ absence. The only hiccup over the past 5 games was that unfortunate OT loss in Philadelphia, but other than that the Rockets are looking really solid at the moment. That is especially the case in home games, where they have lost just 3 times in 18 outings all season long.

With leading rebounder Santi Aldama out, the Grizzlies could be in trouble against one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. Houston dominated the first meeting by 15 points on the road. I can’t see how the Grizz put up resistance in this rematch. Let’s take Durant and the Rockets to cover.

Grizzlies vs Rockets prediction: Houston -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Boston Celtics return home as heavy favorites, continuing to play at an elite level on both ends of the floor. Boston ranks near the top of the league offensively, averaging around 117 points per game — with Jaylen Brown leading the scoring load and strong complementary production from Derrick White and Payton Pritchard. The Celtics’ spacing, ball movement and depth allow them to sustain offensive pressure for all 4 quarters — especially at TD Garden, where they have consistently controlled tempo and punished defensive mistakes.

Portland, however, has quietly been competitive of late and enters this matchup capable of keeping games closer than expected. The Trail Blazers have played some of their best basketball in January, leaning on Deni Avdija’s expanded offensive role, balanced perimeter scoring and improved rebounding from Donovan Clingan. Portland already proved earlier this season that it can hang with Boston, knocking off the Celtics 114-108 at home. While the Blazers remain inconsistent defensively, their recent form and willingness to push pace give them a path to stay within striking distance. With Boston often comfortable winning without needing to extend margins, Portland’s ability to score in spurts makes grabbing the points appealing.

Trail Blazers vs Celtics prediction: Portland +8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.

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Yesterday’s 111-85 result is exactly why the line makes no sense. But when a spread looks counterintuitive, there is always a good reason. Blowouts driven by extreme turnover margins (as was the case yesterday) are driven by variance and often not repeatable. Turnovers spike in one game and then normalize quickly once the losing team cleans up spacing and ball security priorities. Minnesota has the opportunity to do that in the span of a day in this second leg.  Golden State converted chaos into points, but chaos is not a repeatable offense.

There’s also the correction factor: teams embarrassed in the first leg of a back-to-back against the same opponent almost always recalibrate. That suppresses the exact volatility that fueled Golden State’s win and makes yesterday’s result look more like an outlier. The line reflects that and the line isn’t ignoring the prior result — it’s pricing the expectation of regression. Minnesota doesn’t need revenge theatrics; it needs a normal game. In a normalized environment, the T-Wolves are the side more likely to create a steady margin. That’s why, despite yesterday’s rout, they are spotting even more points today. Let’s follow the messaging and give the points.

Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction: Minnesota -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Just a game after pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the season by beating the Thunder as +15.5 underdogs, the Pacers are back on the road in Atlanta on Monday. It was only their third road win of the season in 22 attempts, but how do these Pacers stack up against Atlanta? Well, the first meeting went down at the start of November and the Hawks dominated 128-108 at Indiana. It was the third straight Atlanta win in this matchup and it is outscoring Indy by almost 10 points per game during this stretch. The spread is at just 5 points; if it were slightly higher, I would consider backing the Pacers.

With back-to-back wins over Phoenix and Memphis, optimism is back among the Hawks — who are trying to right the ship after a somewhat slower start to the calendar year. For those who thought all of their issues were automatically fixed when they got rid of Trae Young, think again. Atlanta is only 19th in defense over the past 5 games; by now it’s quite clear that in order to improve their positioning in the East, they will have to step it up on that end. Both Zaccharie Risacher and Kristaps Porzingis are out for Monday’s game, so that could hinder the Hawks a bit.

It makes very little sense for the Pacers to go all out and try to get the win. Their season is pretty much over, without a chance of them catching a play-in tournament, and superstar Tyrese Haliburton is still nowhere close to coming back. Meanwhile, the Hawks are still fighting for positioning in the East. Winning games like these is a must if they want to get closer to the sixth seed. I’ll go with the home side.

Pacers vs Hawks prediction: Atlanta -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The spread itself is the first clue. When a team with the bigger name, stronger record and recent head-to-head dominance is catching points, the market is signaling that tonight’s conditions don’t match the surface narrative. Charlotte laying more than a possession says this game is being priced on current performance and matchup texture, not history.

Philadelphia’s recent form has included stretches where the offense simply stalls. That profile is dangerous on the road, especially against a team that has been more connected defensively and more decisive offensively. Charlotte has quietly tightened its rotation, played with better pace control and defended with more consistency — which stabilizes their floor from quarter to quarter. The price here says that the optics mean nothing, and what happened previously is just a footnote. This is Charlotte’s moment to assert itself in this series. Chances are good because of the Hornets’ lack of presence against Philadelphia, they are supremely undervalued. This is a bet of the day worthy position. It’s Charlotte minus the points.

76ers vs Hornets prediction: Charlotte -3 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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