NBA Picks

The offense just wasn’t clicking for the Hornets last night, as they went 8-for-47 from three in their 94-87 home loss to the Cavaliers. Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller were their only players with notable performances, but both of them shot well under 50%. So how do they turn things around with less than 24 hours of rest and a game in Orlando? Judging by recent meetings between the two teams, it’ll be difficult. Charlotte has gone just 1-5 SU/ATS in 6 games against the Magic; they’ve covered only once in 5 meetings at Kia Center.

Orlando returns home from a week-long trip to Europe, where they split a pair of games against the Grizzlies. After winning the first one in Berlin, they didn’t show nearly as much enthusiasm in the return leg in London, losing 126-109. Despite the loss, there were some positives to take away. The main one was the return of Franz Wagner from a lengthy layoff due to injury. Adding a 20+ point per game scorer is always a positive, and I expect the Magic to go on a run with him back in the line-up in the coming weeks and months, if health is on their side.

In their first game back on home soil, the Magic are 6 point favorites versus a team playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back. That shouldn’t be too big of an obstacle to overcome. Last night’s brutal offensive display might stick a while with the Hornets. Orlando is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 10th in efficiency over their last 5 outings. I’ll go with the home team here.

Hornets vs Magic Predictions: Orlando Magic -6 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The price here looks a bit fishy. What else can be said? Comparing the Denver Nuggets to the Washington Wizards in terms of overall brand clout and market presence is comparing polar opposites. The Nuggets are considered one of the heavyweights in the league and the Wizards, well, they are known as the cupcake of the NBA. The number seems a bit soft.

The Joker not playing for the Nuggets is now old news. The market has had time to adjust. So has Denver, and at the end of the day, they will likely still have Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray going for them in D.C. Washington is ugly side to bet overall, but they’re exactly the type of team that can be annoying as a home dog, especially when this is a game they are playing with house money. If the Wizards lose here, they were expected to. If they win, well that’s a benchmark for them. Washington will run when they can, they’ll shoot early in the clock, and they’ll turn games into stretches where sheer variance can keep them around. That’s usually bad — but it’s helpful when you’re taking points, because it challenges the quarter-by-quarter control a road favorite requires to cover. The fact that the Nuggets aren’t laying more here would suggest that this is game that is far from the thumping the consensus is anticipating.

Nuggets vs Wizards prediction: Washington Wizards +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The Houston Rockets continue to be involved in low-scoring games. Out of the last 10 games they have played in, only 2 have gone over the 220-point mark. Tonight, they will be visiting a Philadelphia 76ers team that could struggle to put up points, too. They have Joel Embiid on the injury report, listed as probable to play, and Paul George is questionable. If either one or both stars are unavailable, their offense could be missing key cogs. Even if they come into this game healthier, the Rockets offense faces different challenges. Over the last 10 games, the team is dead last in true shooting percentage, with the team in 29th being more than 3% ahead. That level of inefficiency could cost them dearly here.

During that same stretch of games, both teams have been locked-in when it comes to getting stops. They rank 7th and 8th in defensive rating, respectively. With the teams 14th and 26th offensively, it does not suit a high-scoring game. The Rockets are 25th in pace during that time too, so if they kill the tempo, the teams will not have enough possessions to rack up points here. Both are also in the bottom 10 of 3-pointers made per game during that time, with the Rockets being the only team in the league not reaching double-digit makes per game. That makes under 221.5 the best play to make.

Rockets vs 76ers prediction: Under 221.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to under 220.

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The under is the best play here because this matchup is built for uneven scoring, and totals don’t fail because teams never score — they fail because one team can’t score consistently. That’s the most likely shape for Dallas. When a team lacks reliable advantage creation, possessions don’t flow naturally. Instead, there is a potential for longer cold spells and the type of scoring droughts that quietly bury an over. The Mavs may find a hot 5-minute stretch, but it’s the empty stretches that matter, and Dallas is far more prone to them overall.

Golden State introduces another reason to prefer the under: their scoring profile is inherently volatile. The Warriors will take threes in volume, but clearing a mid-230s number requires them not only to shoot a lot of threes — it requires them to hit at a high clip, especially if Dallas’ offense is left at home. If Golden State has even a slightly off shooting night, the over once again stands in jeopardy. Backing the under here is fading the idea that both teams deliver smooth offense for 4 quarters. Dallas’ likely droughts, plus Golden State’s three-point volatility makes the over the riskier side.

Warriors vs Mavericks prediction: Under 232 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The Chicago Bulls and Minnesota Timberwolves square off in a matchup that profiles as one of the higher-scoring games on the slate. Chicago enters playing with confidence on the offensive end, coming off a massive shooting performance where they knocked down 25 three pointers in a blowout win. Coby White continues to lead the scoring charge, while Matas Buzelis and a deep supporting cast have given the Bulls multiple reliable options. Chicago averages close to 118 points per game and is comfortable playing at an elevated pace, especially when their perimeter shots are falling.

Minnesota brings just as much offensive firepower, averaging over 120 points per game and thriving in open floor situations. Anthony Edwards remains the focal point, but the Timberwolves’ depth has been a major factor, with players like Naz Reid capable of erupting on any given night. Minnesota dominated Chicago in their last meeting, scoring 136 points with ease by stretching the floor and attacking mismatches. Neither team is built to slow the other down consistently, and both prefer to play fast with early offense opportunities. With recent form, offensive efficiency, and head to head results all pointing toward a shootout, this matchup sets up well to exceed the posted total.

Bulls vs Timberwolves Prediction: Over 239.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 240.5

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This is a big spread, but it’s one of the few that’s actually supported by structural mismatch, not just team reputation. Utah’s defense without its interior anchors tends to collapse in predictable ways: they give up rim pressure, they struggle to finish possessions with rebounds and they can’t stop runs once momentum flips. That’s exactly San Antonio runs away with this. The Spurs can either pour it on in an avalanche and then strangle the Jazz like a boa constrictor. Sounds poetic, doesn’t it?

San Antonio is built to produce said avalanches. They can score in multiple ways, and their efficiency turns live-ball mistakes into immediate points. Against a thin Utah roster that already has defensive woes, that matters. Why? Because Utah’s calling card is their offense, but their biggest danger is a bad window where they turn it over, miss some threes, and then give up transition buckets. That can easily happen here. This is all about Utah’s inability to stop the kind of runs that San Antonio generates and their glaring holes on both sides of the court. This game has blowout written all over it.

Spurs vs Jazz prediction: San Antonio Spurs -12.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.

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It was a heroic but also a much-needed win for the Lakers in their last game, when they triumphed in Denver 115-107 versus the shorthanded Nuggets. With the win, the Lakers improved to 14-8 SU in road games. It’ll be the 3rd time these two teams clash, with each side winning their home game by double-digits earlier in the year. Unlike in their win, this time around, the Lakers won’t have the services of Austin Reaves — which could be problematic facing a defense like the Clippers.

Meanwhile, the Clippers have their own injury issues with Kawhi Leonard being questionable due to a knee issue. He’s skipped the last 3 games because of it; the outcome of this game will largely depend on his availability. The Clippers have been one of the hotter teams over the past month or so, now part of the play-in tournament discussion — which is something not a lot of people saw coming after a disastrous start to the year. The oldest roster in the NBA is fighting hard to stay alive, and the incentive to win is huge for them, as they don’t control their pick in the upcoming draft. Making the postseason is a must.

With us not knowing in which state Kawhi will be, it’s not easy making a prediction. That being said, I’d give a slight edge to the Lakers, who have both of their superstars healthy and ready to play. Luka Doncic and co. are 4-1 ATS/SU in 5 meetings, the 2 wins over the Raptors and Nuggets were a solid warm-up for tonight’s massive game. I’ll go with the team in purple and gold.

Lakers vs Clippers Predictions: Los Angeles Lakers +1 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Miami Heat enter this matchup looking to lean on their trademark discipline and defensive consistency. Miami continues to win by controlling pace and execution, with Norman Powell leading the way at over 23 points per game while providing late game shot creation. Bam Adebayo anchors the interior on both ends, and Tyler Herro’s shooting gives the Heat a reliable perimeter threat when defenses collapse. Miami has been especially competitive in close games and has shown the ability to travel well, making them a tough out in tight spreads.

Portland, meanwhile, faces a situational spot that hasn’t treated them well this season. The Trail Blazers are just 2-5 ATS when playing after multiple days off, often struggling to rediscover offensive rhythm without regular game action. While Portland has promising young contributors and can score in spurts, consistency remains an issue—particularly against structured, defense first teams. Miami’s ability to slow the game down and force half court possessions limits Portland’s transition opportunities and exposes their shot selection issues. In a matchup likely decided in the final minutes, Miami’s experience and situational edge make them a strong play catching points.

Heat vs Trail Blazers Prediction: Heat +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to ML