NBA Picks

This line is a classic case of the market disagreeing with the headlines. Atlanta just moved on from Trae Young, which sounds like a franchise entering a reset — exactly the kind of narrative that makes bettors hesitant to back them. And yet, despite that perception, the Hawks are still the favorites in this matchup. That matters, because spreads are built on expected performance — not storyline momentum.

Both teams come in looking ugly on paper: each has dropped 3 straight and each has been on the wrong end of blowout-type losses. But the context is what shapes this bet. Milwaukee’s skid came against respected playoff-level opponents (San Antonio, Minnesota, Denver), so the Bucks’ losses can “feel” more forgivable. Atlanta’s losses were to the Lakers, Portland and Boston — 2 of those being top-tier teams, as well, but the optics of Atlanta losing in the post-Young era invites the assumption that things are unraveling. That assumption is exactly why the Hawks being chalk is actionable. Oddsmakers are effectively telling you Atlanta still profiles as the more functional side even if both teams are struggling. When the market leans Atlanta in a spot in which public instinct leans Milwaukee’s brand name, the sharper move is to trust the number rather than the narrative.

Bucks vs Hawks prediction: Atlanta -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Bucks vs Hawks predictions.

Darius Garland is out, stripping shot creation and tempo from Cleveland’s guard rotation. When offensive creators are missing, we can’t always assume that “next man up” is what happens and the fireworks continue. Against a team as efficient on defense like OKC, this results in longer possessions that end in more contested attempts. That’s especially true against Oklahoma City, because it can win possessions and make you pay on the transition. The Thunder have hung their hat on being comfortable defending deep into the clock, and all of this leans toward the under.

Then there is also the location of the venue — Cleveland. We know that the Cavaliers play at a higher level on their own court, but that is no reason to assume an offensive-oriented affair. The Thunder have proven that their style of play translates and travels well. Playing a defensive-minded, offensively-responsible basketball game puts the Thunder in position to command and win on any given night. That’s why they are the defending champs. But a game with an offensive connotation is far more definite. OKC can apply its “boa constrictor” style to Cleveland’s offense and shut down the offense without having to score a tremendous amount of points, itself. It just needs smart shots that land. This is a game that the Thunder can win comfortably and still keep the number under the line.

Thunder vs Cavaliers prediction: Under 234.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Now you can bet any of our Thunder vs Cavaliers predictions at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer to take advantage of. If you sign up for FanDuel right now, you earn a welcome bonus worth up to $300 if your first $5 bet wins! Use this link 🔗 to join FanDuel right now and learn more.

Nobody wants to bet Washington, and the record makes that easy to understand. At 10-31, the Wizards have lived in the league’s basement and rarely inspire confidence as anything other than a “fade.” But betting spreads isn’t about liking a team — it’s about whether the price is wrong for the game conditions. And this is one of the few spots where Washington taking points makes real sense.

The question you have to answer isn’t “are the Wizards good?” The question is: can the Clippers, on the road, justify laying a meaningful number while missing multiple core pieces? Without Kawhi Leonard, Bradley Beal and Derrick Jones Jr., the Clippers lose a lot of what creates separation. That matters because large spreads are often won in the final 8 minutes — when the favorite needs a reliable closer to prevent the backdoor and keep the margin intact. Those are exactly the possessions Kawhi typically controls. Washington, meanwhile, doesn’t need to be efficient or polished. The Wiz simply need to stay connected, avoid turnovers and get enough scoring to force LA to play the full 48. In this injury context, the Wizards aren’t just live to cover — they are live to make it uncomfortable deep into the game. Let’s take the points.

Clippers vs Wizards prediction: Washington +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

You can bet on our Clippers vs Wizards pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $300 in bonus bets instantly if your first $5 wager is a winner! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

Dallas comes into Monday’s game at MSG following back-to-back wins over the tanking Jazz in which it scored 138 and 144 points. Cooper Flagg sat out both of them; he is expected to miss the trip to New York, as well, due to his ankle issue. He also did not play in the first meeting back in November when the Knicks barely escaped Dallas with a 113-111 win. The Mavs are one of the more injury-plagued teams this season, but when Flagg does not play they actually have a winning record. With 3 wins in 4 games, they are the more in-form team — and yet the oddsmakers have them as double-digit underdogs.

It all started going downhill for the Knicks following their NBA Cup win. They have covered in just 3 of 17 games and own 2 wins over their last 10 outings overall. At home, where they have been reliable all year long, they have covered just once in 7 games. Jalen Brunson remains out with an ankle injury — without him they managed just 99 points in their most recent loss to Phoenix over the weekend. This team is clearly in a crisis right now and cannot do much about it in terms of getting new players, as its cap situation won’t allow that behavior.

Beating the Utah Jazz by double-digits in back-to-back games might be a bit deceiving, but whenever you have a team scoring 138 and 144 points in 2 games in a row, it is doing something right. It’s hard for me to trust the Knicks to cover, but they should still come out on top. I’ll take the Mavericks and the massive spread instead.

Mavericks vs Knicks prediction: Dallas +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

You can bet on our Mavericks vs Knicks pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $300 in bonus bets instantly if your first $5 wager is a winner! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

The Utah Jazz wrap up a 5-game road trip at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio against the Spurs in a twilight tipoff on Martin Luther King Day. The Jazz opened the journey with a stunning 123-112 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last Monday as +13 underdogs, and they lost 128-126 at Chicago — although they covered as +5.5 ‘dogs. Utah has scored 120 or more points in all 4 games on the trip, but it is just 2-3 against the spread in the past 5 games — while the over is 3-0 in the past 3 and 6-2 in the past 8.

The Spurs are coming off a 126-123 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday, but they failed to cover as -5 favorites as the over (234.5) cashed. That over was a rarity, as the under had hit in 8 in a row and 11 of the previous 12 outings. So while it’s tempting to play the over in games involving Utah, it’s super risky with San Antonio. Instead, the Spurs are 0-2 ATS in the past 2 tries as double-digit favorites while going 1-4 ATS in the past 5 as a favorites of 8.5 points or more. Let’s back the Jazz, as the Spurs are favored by a season-high 16.5 points — which is too much.

Jazz vs Spurs prediction: Utah +16.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +15.5.

Now you can bet any of our Jazz vs Spurs predictions at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer to take advantage of. If you sign up for FanDuel right now, you earn a welcome bonus worth up to $300 if your first $5 bet wins! Use this link 🔗 to join FanDuel right now and learn more.

The Philadelphia 76ers are sizable favorites on Monday when they host the Indiana Pacers. The 76ers have a record of 22-18, but they are only 10-11 on their home floor. Philadelphia has lost 3 of its last 4 games, including a 117-115 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out. The Pacers were missing Pascal Siakam and Aaron Nesmith in their last game, but that was strictly for rest.

The 76ers are filled with talent, but things haven’t fully clicked yet for Philadelphia. They have failed to be consistent all season. Their longest winning streak is 4 games, a mark they hit in the first 4 games of the season. Since the 4-0 start, Philly has been a .500 team that has looked solid one night and then disarranged the next. I’m looking at Joel Embiid as a factor for the team’s inconsistent play. Embiid is averaging 24 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Those numbers have been a dropoff for Philadelphia’s center. They are his lowest numbers in each category since the 2019-20 season. Embiid is also only shooting 25.3% from 3 this season, which is his lowest perimeter shooting percentage of his career by a substantial amount. With Embiid being less lethal from beyond the arc, it has allowed defense to play off and compact the middle. Embiid will be matched up against a pair of skilled bigs tonight in Pascal Siakam and Jay Huff. If the Pacers can win the front-court battle, they should be able to keep this game competitive.

Pacers vs 76ers prediction: Indiana +8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook for the NFL playoffs, we recommend checking out Fanatics Sportsbook. New users can get $100 FanCash bet matches on their first 10 wagers! Join Fanatics Sportsbook, where you can bet on our Pacers vs 76ers predictions.

Devin Booker returning to the lineup sparked the Phoenix Suns to an impressive 106-99 win at Madison Square Garden over the weekend, their 25th in 42 games this season. This is the best team to bet on in terms of them covering the spread; it has done so in 70% of games played this season. On MLK Day the Suns travel to Brooklyn for a date with the other team in New York, hoping to beat the Nets for the seventh time in 9 games. Phoenix is on a run of 10 wins in 14 games overall, plus it has defeated the Nets 4 times in 5 visits to Brooklyn.

December is looking more and more like an outlier month for the Nets, who had the NBA’s best defense during those 31 days. Since then, they haven’t performed anywhere close to that level — losing to teams like the Grizzlies, Mavericks, Pelicans and Bulls while giving up a ton of points in the process. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. Michael Porter Jr.’s constant going in and out of the lineup due to injury also hasn’t helped. It’s unclear if he will play on Monday; the latest news suggests he won’t.

Only one team in Monday’s game will be looking to win, and that’s the Suns. For the Nets, it makes way more sense to continue tanking this season in hopes of landing a great pick in the draft. Even without Devin Booker, the Suns should handle their business here. I’ll take the road favorites.

Suns vs Nets prediction: Phoenix -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Bet like a Caesar with this AMAZING new customer offer from Caesars Sportsbook. If you bet just $1, you’ll receive DOUBLE YOUR WINNINGS on your next 20 bets! Become a Caesars member 👥 using the Caesars promo code PWCONTENT20X, where you can bet on our Suns vs Nets picks.

The top 2 teams in the Eastern Conference will go head-to-head on Monday night when the Boston Celtics face the Detroit Pistons. The Celtics have a record of 26-15, and they are 14-8 when playing on the road. Boston has won its last 2 games, with its last win coming against the Atlanta Hawks 132-106. Jaylen Brown led the team in scoring with 41 points. The Celtics’ starters were pulled early after Boston led by 43 points after the third quarter. The Pistons have a record of 30-10 and they are 16-4 on their home court. Detroit has won 5 of its last 6 games, including a 121-78 win over the Indiana Pacers this past Saturday. Cade Cunningham led the team in scoring with 16 points and the Pistons’ starters were pulled early since they led by 39 after the third quarter.

It is a bit surprising that each team is where it is halfway through the season. The Pistons took a giant step forward from being 44-38 last year to now being the top team in the East. The Celtics were also not expected to be this good after Jayson Tatum went down with a season-ending injury, but Boston has rallied behind Brown and has once again found its stride. This will be the fourth time these 2 teams have played this season. Detroit leads the season series 2-1. Each team’s star player has performed well in this matchup. Jaylen Brown is averaging 36 points, while Cunningham is averaging 33 points. Normally in higher-profile games such as this one, defenses will tighten up. But with the Celtics ranking second in the NBA in 3-pointers made per game and the Pistons ranking in the top 10 in most offensive categories, I like the over in this matchup. In 2 of these teams’ previous 3 matchups, the game total exceeded 224.5 points. With both teams heading into this game well rested following offensive explosions in their previous outings, I like these offenses to continue to roll in this matchup. 

Celtics vs Pistons prediction: Over 224.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at 226.5.

You can bet on our Celtics vs Pistons pick at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has thousands of betting options available and a great new customer offer where you can get $300 in bonus bets instantly if your first $5 wager is a winner! Click here 👈🏼 to sign up for a DraftKings account now.

The Miami Heat will be going into tonight’s game against the Golden State Warriors without one of their leading scorers. Tyler Herro did not travel with the team for this road trip, which could really impact their ability to turn around their fortunes on the road. The Heat have won just 7 of 20 games away from home. The Warriors, on the other hand, have turned their arena into a fortress this season with just 6 losses so far and 16 wins. Their point differential at home is 7.7, a mark that places them sixth among all NBA teams. They have picked up 3 straight wins at there, too — all by double-digit margins.

Over the last 10 games the Heat have had some issues getting stops, ranking 18th in defensive rating. It is something they can hardly afford to keep up, as they have ranked in the bottom 10 in offensive rating during that time. Without Herro, we could see a further dropoff. The Warriors have been electric scoring the ball, themselves, ranking third in offensive rating. With Draymond Green probable to play tonight, their defense should also be in order. Green is more than capable of making life tough on Bam Adebayo in the paint. Over the last 10 games the Warriors have been leading the league in 3-pointers made, as well, and should have enough firepower to cover the spread in this one.

Heat vs Warriors prediction: Golden State -5.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

If you’re looking for a new sportsbook, check out Bet365, the world’s #1 sportsbook. They have an amazing sign-up offer where you can INSTANTLY receive $200 in bonus bets from a $5 wager, regardless of whether that bet wins or loses! There’s no catch, it’s really that simple. Join Bet365 right now ⏰ in time to fade or follow our experts’ Heat vs Warriors predictions.