NBA Picks

The Sacramento Kings go into tonight’s game against the Golden State Warriors after suffering a close 2-point loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday. Tonight, they will be confident that they can stay competitive once more, considering they have already picked up a win over the Warriors this season. While the visitors will be without a couple of key pieces in Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray, the Warriors are not the type of team that has a frontcourt that could overwhelm others. Expect rookie Maxime Raynaud to be able to hold his own down low tonight. The Kings also have good individual defenders at point guard, with Russell Westbrook more than capable of causing issues for Stephen Curry. If the Warriors star cannot perform to his full capabilities here, we should see a competitive contest.

The Warriors have a real lack of depth this season, with just 2 players on their roster averaging over 12 points per game. It is no surprise to see them down in 19th in offensive rating. While the Kings have been dead last in that category, the likes of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan should be capable of keeping pace with the Warriors scoring leaders. Over the last 10 games, both teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in three-point percentage, but the Warriors have also been in the bottom 10 of the league in opponent points in the paint. If the Kings can find some efficiency inside, taking the points on them looks like the play to make.

Kings vs Warriors prediction: Sacramento Kings +15 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +14.

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After splitting their first 2 games of this West Coast road trip, the Bucks are now in Los Angeles to take on the Lakers in what promises to be an exciting matchup. It usually is whenever Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic square off, the Greek Freak has had the upper hand over the Slovenian superstar by winning 8 of the last 11 meetings between the 2 players. Not only that, but Giannis is also averaging 32.3 points, 11.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game in those contests. I can already picture the Lakers scrambling to contain Milwaukee’s best player. Another weapon the Bucks can use is their 3-point shooting — they rank second only behind the Nuggets in percentage of made 3s, while the Lakers allow 36.8% of 3s to go in (seventh highest in the NBA).

With 41-year old star LeBron James resting, the Lakers managed just 91 points in a blowout loss to the San Antonio Spurs a couple of nights ago, splitting the 2 games in this mini road trip. Now they are back at Crypto.com Arena, where they have won 10 of 16 games this season — with a strong chance of James suiting up for this game. Rui Hachimura could also make a comeback after being out for 12 days or so; they could definitely use his shooting ability and physicality in guarding Giannis. All the issues of the Lakers this season arise from their lack of discipline at the defensive end. Over the past 10 games they are allowing the fourth-highest opponent field goal percentage at 49.8% shots made.

I have very little confidence in the Lakers right now. Their 3-ball has been average at best over the past 5 games, and the most they have made during this stretch was 11 and they did it 4 times. Meanwhile, the Bucks are the healthier team and they have the best player on the court in Giannis, who is very motivated to get his team back in the playoff picture. I’ll take a gamble on the Bucks and back them to win outright.

Bucks vs Lakers prediction: Milwaukee ML (+135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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You’ve probably heard the cliché “it’s hard to beat the same team twice.” Now apply it to a back-to-back rematch, and that challenge gets even tougher. Minnesota just beat Cleveland by nine two days ago in Minneapolis, and that’s what the market will remember. But this is not the same setup. That’s why Cleveland is favored here with all things considered.

For one, the venue flips to Cleveland, and that matters since the T-Wolves have a strong home court presence. Second, the first game wasn’t as it appears – it swung on one defining stretch. These teams were essentially deadlocked at halftime before Minnesota detonated in the third quarter with 43 points, while Cleveland managed only 22. That quarter created the separation. Outside of that frame, the Cavaliers more than held their own. In fact, they nearly came back, cutting a 19-point deficit late in the third down to four points with a minute left. That rally is significant because it shows Cleveland can solve Minnesota’s looks and win stretches of basketball against them.

The key here is immediacy: Cleveland doesn’t have to “learn lessons over a week.” They get the rematch immediately, at home, with clear adjustments. Take away one disastrous quarter and the Cavs win — possibly comfortably. Because of recency bias, Cleveland is easy to fade. That’s why the value sits on them even here as the chalk.

Timberwolves vs Cavaliers prediction: Cavaliers -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

This matchup sets up as a strong situational spot for New Orleans, with both teams playing their 3rd game in 4 days — a schedule that often leads to tired legs and reduced defensive intensity. The Pelicans are mostly healthy, with Saddiq Bey still sidelined due to a hip injury, but their core rotation remains intact. Zion Williamson has found a rhythm and stayed on the floor, averaging 22.4 points per game while consistently pressuring the rim and forcing defensive breakdowns. That interior presence becomes even more impactful in a fatigue heavy spot where defensive rotations tend to slip.

New Orleans should also get a major offensive boost with Trey Murphy expected back after sitting out the previous game, adding 21.3 points per night and much needed perimeter spacing. Washington enters with uncertainty surrounding Keyonte George, and even if he suits up, the Wizards have struggled to string together consistent defensive efforts, particularly during condensed stretches. The Pelicans have been reliable when placed in the favorite role, going 2-0 both SU and ATS in those situations this season. While it’s a small sample, it speaks to their ability to handle expectations and capitalize on advantageous spots. With more offensive depth, better health, and a scheduling setup that favors the stronger roster, New Orleans is positioned to control this game.

Pelicans vs Wizards Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.5.

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Philadelphia and Orlando meet in a matchup that profiles as more methodical than explosive, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the 76ers’ offensive ceiling. Tyrese Maxey continues to carry a heavy scoring load, averaging over 30 points per game, but Philadelphia’s pace often slows in games that demand half court execution. Joel Embiid’s ongoing knee management remains a key variable, and even when he plays, the Sixers have shown a tendency to lean into structured offense rather than pushing tempo. That approach has led to more deliberate possessions and stretches where scoring can stagnate, particularly against teams capable of defending without overhelping.

Orlando, meanwhile, remains one of the more disciplined defensive teams in the Eastern Conference. The Magic rank closer to league average offensively but are far more comfortable winning games with physical defense and controlled pace. Paolo Banchero leads the scoring at just over 21 PPG, with Desmond Bane and Jalen Suggs providing balance, but Orlando rarely relies on fast break volume to score. Instead, the Magic prefer to grind opponents down, limit transition opportunities, and force contested shots late in the clock. When these teams meet in games that don’t turn into track meets, totals have often stayed in check. With Philadelphia likely to prioritize execution and Orlando content to slow the game and defend, possessions should be limited and efficiency harder to come by. All signs point toward a tighter, lower scoring contest.

76ers vs Magic Prediction: Under 226.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 225.5

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The Raptors limp their way to Boston for a date with the Celtics, hoping to keep their 3-game win streak alive. A late 3-pointer by Immanuel Quickley gave them a 97-96 win over Charlotte, but the result came at a cost. Brandon Ingram left the game after just 11 minutes played due to a thumb injury. His status is officially listed as day-to-day along with Scottie Barnes, who is also questionable with a knee injury. It has been all Boston in this matchup for years now; it has won all but 1 of the last 14 meetings, including the last 7 at TD Garden.

The Celtics laid an egg on national TV losing to the shorthanded Denver Nuggets 114-110 on Wednesday. As soon as the 3-ball isn’t going in at a high rate, the C’s struggle to win games — even if the opponent is without a couple of key players. Jaylen Brown was once again unstoppable with 33 points; he has been having a dream season so far from an individual standpoint. I still have a lot of faith in this team, though, as it is currently on a 5-game winning streak against East teams and has been very reliable against the spread — covering in 4 of its last 5 games.

I’d keep an eye on the injury report, but let’s assume both Ingram and Barnes will be available. Both have minor knocks. Toronto is one of the better 3-point defending teams in the NBA, holding opponents to just 34.2% from deep (second lowest in the league). Boston had the upper hand in the first 2 meetings, but I’m hoping the Raptors can make it a game this time around. I’ll take the road team plus the extra points.

Raptors vs Celtics prediction: Toronto +8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Los Angeles Clippers enter this matchup looking to build consistency and continue climbing the Western Conference standings. Even with some injury concerns, LA still leans on a veteran core that has proven capable of controlling games. James Harden remains the offensive engine, averaging roughly 25 points and 8 APG, while Ivica Zubac provides steady interior production with efficient scoring and rebounding. When the Clippers are locked in defensively, they can dictate tempo and force opponents into difficult half court possessions, an area where they’ve held a clear advantage over weaker defensive teams.

Brooklyn continues to struggle with consistency, particularly on the defensive end, where it ranks among the league’s poorer units in points allowed per possession. While the Nets have shown flashes behind individual scoring performances and young contributors, sustaining that production against experienced, physical teams has been a challenge. Brooklyn has also had difficulty protecting the paint and closing games when opponents apply pressure late. That sets up poorly against a Clippers team comfortable playing through Harden’s shot creation and Zubac’s interior presence. With superior depth, playoff tested leadership, and a matchup edge on both ends of the floor, Los Angeles is positioned to control this game for long stretches. Even on the road, the Clippers’ experience and structure should be enough to separate from a rebuilding Nets squad.

Clippers vs Nets Prediction: LA Clippers -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder will travel to Memphis Friday night to take on the Grizzlies. The Thunder have a record of 31-7 this season, and they are 13-4 when playing on the road. The Thunder have lost 2 of their last 3 games, but they are coming off a 129-125 overtime win over the Utah Jazz. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 46 points, and Chet Holmgren added 23 points and 12 rebounds. The Grizzlies have a record of 16-21 this season, and they are 8-10 on their home floor. Memphis has lost 4 of their last 5 games, including a 117-98 defeat to the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday. Jaren Jackson Jr. led the team in scoring with 19 points.

For the first time this season, the Thunder are going through a slump. Oklahoma City lost back-to-back games against the Suns and Hornets, and then barely got past the Jazz. The Thunder will have to try and get back on track without their star point guard, as Gilgeous-Alexander will miss tonight’s game with an ankle sprain. It will be only the 2nd game this season the Thunder play without Gilgeous-Alexander. The only other game was on December 7th against the Utah Jazz — a game OKC won that game by 30 points. SGA isn’t the only one, though. The injury list is full on both sides for this game. The Thunder will be without Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, and potentially Alex Caruso. The Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant, Cedric Coward, Brandon Clarke, and Zach Edey. With both teams struggling and filled with injuries, I’m leaning towards the better-coached team with a championship pedigree. Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort will still be available tonight, and the Thunder have shown their roster is deep. I expect they bounce back tonight in Memphis.

Thunder vs Grizzlies prediction: OKC Thunder -5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Fresh off their trade that sent Trae Young to Washington, the Atlanta Hawks will travel to take on the Denver Nuggets in a nonconference matchup. The Hawks have a record this season of 18-21, and they are 11-10 when playing on the road. Atlanta lost 2 of their its 3 games but are coming off a 117-100 win over the New Orleans Pelicans. Zaccharie Risacher led the team in scoring with 25 points, and Jalen Johnson added 19 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists. The Nuggets have a record of 25-12 this season, and they are 10-5 on their home court. The Nuggets have won their last 2 games, including their last win over the Boston Celtics at a score of 114-110. Peyton Watson led the team in scoring with 30 points, and Jamal Murray added 22 points and 17 assists. 

The Nuggets are still trying to find their way without Nikola Jokic. After the last 2 wins, the Nuggets are 3-2 without Jokic in the lineup. In the 5 games without their star, the Nuggets have seen significant decreases in their team rebounding, assist totals, and points per game. With Jokic in the lineup, the Nuggets averaged 124.1 points, 43.2 rebounds and 29.1 assists per game. Without Jokic, those numbers dip to 113.6 points, 37.8 rebounds and 25 assists per game. We are seeing in live action how impactful a player Jokic is.

CJ McCollum will not get his first start as a Hawk tonight, but I still think the Hawks are in a better place after moving on from Young. The Hawks were in an opposite situation as the Nuggets, where they actually were playing better without their star player. The Hawks were only 2-9 this season with Young in the lineup, which means they were 16-12 without him. We have seen Jalen Johnson grow into a budding star this season, and effective role players such as Nickeil-Alexander Walker and Kristaps Porzingis have excelled. The Nuggets are fundamentally a different team without Jokic, and I like for the Hawks to take advantage of his absence tonight.

Hawks vs Nuggets prediction: Atlanta Hawks +1 is available at the time of publishing. Playable to PK.

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The New York Knicks head into this matchup facing a glaring split between their home and road performance. While they’ve been dominant at Madison Square Garden with a 17-4 home record, that success has not traveled well. On the road, New York is just 7-9 and an alarming 5-12 against the spread, struggling to maintain offensive flow and defensive intensity away from home. Even with Jalen Brunson continuing to produce at an elite level and solid frontcourt contributions, the Knicks have had issues closing games and matching opponents’ energy in hostile environments.

Phoenix, meanwhile, has emerged as one of the more unexpected and impressive teams in the Western Conference. The Suns enter this game at 22-15 overall and 12-5 at home, where they’ve consistently played with confidence and pace. Devin Booker is delivering as the primary scoring option at 25.4 points per game, but the real difference maker has been Dillon Brooks, who has elevated Phoenix’s offense with 21.5 points per night as a reliable secondary option. That added scoring balance has made the Suns much harder to defend, especially at home where role players tend to thrive. With Phoenix rolling and New York continuing to struggle away from MSG, the situational edge clearly favors the Suns.

Knicks vs Suns Prediction: Phoenix Suns ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130 or -1.5 on the spread.

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