NHL Picks

The New York Islanders are traveling to Montreal to face the Canadiens for the second time this season. Both teams are vying for playoff positions, so every point is crucial as the season winds down. In their previous matchup, they combined for seven goals, and we could see a similar outcome in this game.

The Islanders have been strong on the road, with an above-average defensive unit. However, their success can largely be attributed to their goaltending. They currently rank first in expected goals saved above average (xGSA) by a wide margin. Ilya Sorokin has been outstanding, giving his team a great chance to win in most matches.

On the other hand, the Canadiens average fewer than 27 shots per game but rank second in the league for goals scored. Jacob Fowler is confirmed to start in goal, and while he has performed well in his limited NHL experience, the defense in front of him has struggled with consistency. We might need an empty-net goal to hit the Over, so we’ll lean that way and hope the puck finds the back of the net.

Islanders vs Canadiens Prediction: Over 5.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The St. Louis Blues will take on the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday. Both teams have struggled this season and sit toward the bottom of the Western Conference. The Blue have looked more impressive recently. They have won 6 of their last 10 games overall. Through those 10 games, the Blues rank 2nd in the Western Conference in points and have only given up 20 goals. On the season, the Blues are averaging 2.60 goals per game while allowing 3.24 goals. As we can see, the defense is improving and that should play a huge role in today’s game.

For the Canucks, they currently rank last in the Western Conference. The Canucks have struggled across the board this year ranking last in goals against and 31st in goals per game. Making matters worse, they have the worst penalty kill in the NHL and have allowed 56 power play goals this season. The Canucks have only racked up 21 points through 35 home games this season. That statistic is so bad its impressive. Overall, I suspect the Blues offense will dominate the game and the improved defense will shut down the Canucks. I am taking the Blues on the money line.

Blues vs. Canucks Prediction: Blues ML (-135) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be on the second half of a back-to-back and they will be in Ottawa on Saturday night to take on the Senators. Heading into action on Saturday, the Senators find themselves five points out of a wildcard playoff spot. They have been playing good hockey lately while making this late playoff push. They are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. This rivalry will not be the same this time around as the Leafs will be missing the playoffs and they are without their Captain Auston Matthews. Having played Friday night in a game that went to overtime, the Leafs may come out of the gates sluggish, look for the Senators to have the rest advantage in this game.

The Senators are a good team on home ice, their record is 17-11-5 at the Canadian Tire Centre. On the flip side of this, the Leafs are not good on the road. Their road record is 12-16-5. This game means a lot more to the Senators, and I expect they will show that with a desperate performance. Give me the Senators in this one.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction: Senators -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Detroit Red Wings are still playing without captain Dylan Larkin when they host the Boston Bruins at Little Caesars Arena on Saturday night. Larkin’s absence is a big one, as his solid 200-foot game is sorely missed as the Red Wings push to make the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Offensively, Larkin is 2nd on the team in goals with 28 and 3rd in points with 55. He plays on Detroit’s top power play, and Detroit is scoring just 2.8 goals per game in the 6 games since he’s been sidelined. The Red Wings were shut out the last time these teams met back on January 13 with Larkin playing, and things only get more difficult without him in the lineup.

The good news for Detroit is that Boston’s goals per game average drops from 3.47 at home to 3.09 on the road. That is still a respectable number, but Detroit is playing a lot better defensively lately and should be able to make life difficult on David Pastrnak and company. Detroit has allowed just 3 total goals over its last 2 games, and John Gibson has been one of the most reliable goaltenders in the NHL for the last several months. Both teams have 84 points on the season and are locked in a tight battle for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. There’s a chance this contest has a playoff-like feel to it, and in that case, I’m looking to the under.

Bruins vs Red Wings prediction: Under 5.5 (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Tampa Bay Lightning continue their road trip with a stop in Edmonton to face the Oilers. So far, Tampa Bay is 2-0 and has outscored its opponents 12-4, demonstrating just how dominant it can be. It’s impressive to see their success despite several elite players missing time. With a 22-9-4 record on the road, expect this Lightning team to come out strong and with great pace.

The Oilers currently sit second in their division and are working to come together to secure a playoff spot. The absence of Leon Draisaitl was evident on Thursday, when they failed to score in a 4-0 loss to the Panthers. While their power play can be dominant, the Lightning also has an elite power play. If Edmonton cannot generate offense at even-strength, its chances of winning decrease significantly. The lack of depth in their forward lines has been a challenge all year, and Tampa Bay will likely aim to exploit that. Connor Ingram is confirmed to start in goal, but there is only so much he can do. The Lightning should be able to score a good number of goals and add another 2 points to their total.

Lightning vs Oilers Prediction: Lightning -1.5 (+165) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

It has been a tale of two seasons for these teams. The Jets had a chance to make a run towards the playoffs shortly after the Olympic break, but four losses in the last six games, including a 6-1 blowout at the hands of the Boston Bruins on Thursday night, put those dreams to an abrupt halt. The Penguins weren’t expected to have much success this season, but they are in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, one of the five teams within one point of each other in the wild card/Metropolitan Division race.

While the offense wasn’t there for the Jets on Thursday, they had four consecutive games before that where they scored three goals, and the offense might not be a problem against the Penguins. Arturs Silovs is the likely starter for Pittsburgh, and before allowing two goals in his last start, he had allowed 13 goals over his previous three games.

It may seem like a scary proposition to bet the over in a game where Connor Hellebuyck starts, but he has had his share of poor outings over his past four starts, allowing 15 goals over his past four games. The Penguins’ offense has also been firing on all cylinders, scoring 16 goals over their past three games. With captain Sidney Crosby finally returning from injury in their last game and recording a goal and an assist, the offense should continue on its tear.

The offenses only need three goals each to get this over the finish line, and it feels like that is quite possible in this matchup.

Jets vs Penguins prediction: Over 6.5 (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

The Vegas Golden Knights haven’t scored a goal in 2 games, suffering shutout losses to the Buffalo Sabres and Utah Mammoth in back-to-back games. Both teams have been hot as of late, so there is no shame in losing to them, but failing to score goals with talent like the Golden Knights is disappointing, to say the least. Goaltending feels like it could be the achilles heel for Vegas if they hang on to a playoff spot, but Akira Schmid entered in relief of Adin Hill in the Mammoth loss and performed well.

The Predators have won back-to-back games after a losing skid that all but confirmed they wouldn’t be making the playoffs in a weak Western Conference. It has been a rough year for the Predators, and it felt like they might be on a freefall for the rest of the season, but these last two wins make it hard to predict which version of Nashville is going to show up.

Nevertheless, the Golden Knights aren’t going to handle being shut out in consecutive games, and it feels like a great spot for them to get a win in this game. Justus Annunen is the projected starter for the Predators, and he has performed well this month in limited action, but he still isn’t as capable of stealing a game as Juuse Saros.

The Golden Knights have been in such a funk that it wouldn’t be overly surprising if they were the underdog here, and these odds are begging us to take the Predators as the underdog. However, the Golden Knights should have a bounce-back effort here.

Golden Knights vs Predators prediction: Golden Knights ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

The Buffalo Sabres are the most exciting team in hockey, and a trip out to the west coast didn’t do anything to slow down that train. The Sabres started the trip with a 2-0 win over the Vegas Golden Knights, and then followed that shutout with another against the San Jose Sharks for a 5-0 victory. They’ve won 11 of their last 12 games, and are now 4 points clear of the Tampa Bay Lightning for first in the tough Atlantic Division.

The Kings haven’t been as good lately and are barely hanging on to the last wild card in the Western Conference. While Los Angeles may steal that spot, the Pacific Division hasn’t exactly been a gauntlet this season, and if the Kings were in the Eastern Conference with their 72 points, they’d be 12 points back of the playoffs. When you see their 5-3-2 record over the past 10 games, it’s no problem to understand why it has been a bit of a battle.

The Kings are going to suppress plenty of shots, but despite a lighter workload for Darcy Kuemper when he is in the net, he has still lost three of his past five starts. The opposite can be true for Buffalo’s Sunday starter, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who has a 2.41 goals-against average and .919 save percentage since late December, going 12-3-1.

The Kings aren’t going to be the easiest matchup of this winning run for the Sabres, but they should still be heavier favorites in this matchup than they are getting credit for.

Sabres vs Kings prediction: Sabres ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to (-140).

The Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild are set to meet in what could be a playoff matchup preview on Saturday afternoon in Minneapolis. The Stars enter this matchup with 96 points on the season, which is good for the 2nd-most in the Western Conference. The Wild aren’t far behind with 90 points of their own. Both teams are primed for a deep playoff run, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see this matchup produce a playoff-like atmosphere at Grand Casino Arena. With that in mind, I am expecting a low-scoring affair.

The Stars are still playing without Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz. While Dallas still possesses plenty of strong forwards capable of lighting the lamp, playing without Rantanen and Hintz is still significant. The Stars have been held to 8 goals over their last 3 games, which has cooled them off a bit after a hot stretch of offense from the last few weeks. The Stars should also be able to limit the Wild’s offensive attack, as Dallas’ defensive core consists of rock-solid defensemen such as Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, and Esa Lindell. The Wild are also in a bit of a rut offensively, as they’ve been held to 2 goals or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games. Look for this matchup to produce a physical battle with limited ice space for each offensive to operate. Make it a small play, but look to the under.

Stars vs Wild prediction: Under 5.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Philadelphia Flyers will be visiting the San Jose Sharks on Saturday. The Sharks come into this game on a bit of a slide, they are riding a three-game losing streak. This is the worst time of the year to be going through a rough patch while they are in the middle of a tight playoff race. Goal scoring is not what the Flyers are known for. They are ranked 26th in the NHL, averaging 2.78 goals per game. They sit second-last in shots on goal per game averaging only 25.1 per game. On the flip side of this, they are one of the best teams at limiting their opponents’ shots on goal. They average 25.8 shots against per game, good for fourth in the league. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 games played. In one previous meeting with the Sharks this season, the scored was 4-1.

The Sharks are not a great defensive team, but their offense is only average. I am expecting a low-scoring game between these two teams with the early start in San Jose. Give me the under in this one.

Flyers vs. Sharks prediction: Under 6.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Seattle Kraken and Columbus Blue Jackets are locked in close playoff battles in their respective conferences when they meet on Saturday night at Nationwide Arena in Columbus. The Kraken currently sit a single point out of a wild card spot in the Western Conference with 71 points, while the Blue Jackets own the No. 3 spot in the Metropolitan division with 83 points on the season. Entering the final stretch of the regular season, Columbus enters this game with plenty of momentum. The Blue Jackets are coming off solid wins over the Rangers and Hurricanes, and have now won 4 of their last 5 games with the lone loss coming to the Panthers in overtime. The Blue Jackets continue to roll with Rick Bowness behind the bench, and I like their chances of finding the win column in this matchup against the Kraken.

Unlike the Blue Jackets, the Kraken enter this game in a rut. They’ve dropped 6 of their last 8 games and have been out-scored 9-3 over their last 2 contests. Seattle is among the lowest-scoring teams in the league, and their penalty kill is especially worrisome. Specifically, Seattle ranks 31st in the league with a penalty kill percentage of 73.4%. The Columbus power play has 3 power play goals over its last 2 games, and with superstar defenseman Zach Werenski running the show, the Columbus power play should be able to have a solid night in this matchup. Back the Blue Jackets at home.

Kraken vs Blue Jackets prediction: Blue Jackets ML (-170) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.