NBA Picks

The 2024 NBA Playoffs are upon us. The opening weekend will start with a battle between the fourth seed Cleveland Cavaliers and the fifth seed Orlando Magic. The Cleveland Cavaliers were expected to be exceptional this year with a strong backcourt led by Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley controlled the paint all season with both players averaging near 15 points and 10 rebounds per game. The Cavaliers surrounded these stars with shooters who shot better than 35% percent from three-point range including Max Strus, Isaac Okoro and Georges Niang. The Cavaliers are a deep team that has handled adversity and played through injury all season long. The Orlando Magic were one of the NBA’s most surprising teams this season. The Magic were the NBA’s fourth youngest team this season with an average age of 24.3 years. Orlando is led by 21-year-old power forward, Paolo Banchero. Banchero led the Magic in scoring this season with 22.6 points while shooting 45% from the field. The Magic won with defense this season, ranking third in the NBA in defensive rating at 110.8. They were excellent on their home court but left something to be desired on the road. The Magic finished the season with an 18-23 record when playing away from Orlando.

Just a year ago, the Cleveland Cavaliers were in a similar situation that the Orlando Magic are in now. They were a young team making their first collective appearance in the postseason with a lot of hope and aspiration. Last year, Cleveland’s goal of advancing was quickly diminished by the New York Knicks. Cleveland didn’t play up to playoff standards and lost that series in 5 games. While that series loss hurt Cleveland Cavaliers fans, it may help the Cavaliers in their opening round against the Orlando Magic. Cleveland saw what it takes to win a playoff series first-hand and will be looking to right their wrong this year. Orlando is still a very young team with still a lot to prove. The Magic have had a great season, but playing on the road in a lot of these players’ first postseason game against a team hungry for a series win is a tough place to start. I have Cleveland starting this series with a statement win.

Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Despite the Suns’ dominance in the regular season against Minnesota, I feel like this 1st Round series between the two teams will go the distance. Winning back-to-back games will be tough for either side, but the importance of Game 1 is way more significant for the home team than it is for Phoenix. The Suns just dominated the T’Wolves 5 days ago with a 125-106 win, winning for the 3rd time against them this season and for the 10th time in 11 meetings. Phoenix has also covered the spread in 9 straight head-to-head, plus they’re 8-1 ATS in their last 9 visits to Target Center.

After hearing all those stats that favor the Suns, why would someone even consider Minnesota here? Well, playoffs are a different animal. Minnesota worked really hard to get to where they ended the regular season and despite finishing 3rd in the West they are still overlooked by many people. At home the Timberwolves have 30 wins in 41 games, plus only the Celtics and Thunder have a better Net Rating in home games this season. This is the coming out party for Anthony Edwards as well, the Suns were able to shut him down in the 3 regular season meetings, so there’s a huge chip on his shoulder to do well here.

Look, there’s a reason why Minnesota finished 3rd and that’s their defense. They’ve held opponents to 108.4 points per 100 possessions this season, the gap between them and the 2nd best team (Boston) is 2.2 points, which is also the difference between the 2nd and 10th best teams on that list. I’ll take the Timberwolves to open the postseason with a home win here.

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between the two teams was on the night where both teams finished under 100 points, which means a slower paced game should in theory benefit Minnesota. I’m expecting the likes of Rudy Gobert to clog up the paint, the officiating will be different because this is the postseason. Backing the under has been profitable in 13 of the last 16 Suns games and in 22 of 41 Minnesota home games this season. Pace wise the two teams ranked 16th and 21st in possessions per game over their last 10 regular season outings. With them also ranking 10th and 12th in defensive efficiency during that period, I think backing the under to start off the series is the way to go here.

Under 214.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If there was one match-up we were all hoping to get in Round 1, it was the one between the Pacers and Bucks. There’s history between the two teams, tempers flared during the regular season and Indiana dominated the proceedings with 4 wins in 5 games. That said, the last meeting between the two teams was back in January and a lot has happened since. Indiana actually enters game 1 as a 1.5 point favorite, they’ve looked really solid to close out the regular season with 6 wins in 8 games. Tyrese Haliburton has picked it up, he is not yet the player he was before his hamstring injury, but he is getting there.

Milwaukee’s troubles started with the hire of Doc Rivers. Since he took over, they are barely a .500 team and to make matters worse they also lost Giannis Antetokounmpo to a calf injury which could force him to miss at least the first couple of games of this series. Damian Lillard is also battling groin and abductor injuries, he did not practice with the team Tuesday or Wednesday and is a game time decision for Game 1. This is looking more and more like last year’s series vs Miami and we all remember how that ended. Milwaukee lost back-to-back games to end the regular season, which caused them to fall down to the 3rd seed.

Indiana will steal one of the first two games in this series, the question is which one? Catching the Bucks by surprise in Game 1 could be the way to go. The Pacers are likely going to push the tempo, I don’t think a injury riddled Bucks team can keep up. I’ll take the Pacers to cause the upset and open the series with a win.

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Come playoff time teams usually focus more on the defensive side of the ball, but I don’t think that’ll be the case with the Pacers. This team just isn’t equipped to get any stops whatsoever, but the good news is they more than make up for it on the offensive end. Indy finished the regular season averaging 102.1 possessions per game, the 2nd highest mark in the league. They were also 2nd to only the Boston Celtics in offensive efficiency, averaging 120.5 points per 100 possessions. Milwaukee is no slouch either when it comes to scoring. They ranked 6th this season in offensive efficiency, even without Giannis they posted a 117.2 offensive rating in 9 games played which would rank 8th overall this season. The hire of Doc Rivers didn’t have the effect they were hoping for on defense and I think that could cost them in this series. I’ll take the over in Game 1.

Over 232.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.