NBA Picks

Many people have doubted this remarkable run of the Atlanta Hawks. Following their latest win over the Boston Celtics, I think it’s safe to say that they are indeed for real. Only the Spurs and Thunder have a better record over the past 15 games than the Hawks’ 13-2 SU run. Atlanta has ranked seventh in offense and fifth in defense during this stretch, as well. Wednesday sees them try to deliver a knockout punch to the Orlando Magic, as the 2 teams meet for the fourth time this season with the Hawks leading the series 3-0. Apart from Jock Landale who is questionable, the Hawks are pretty much at full strength.

With just 3 wins in 10 games the Magic’s form has dipped significantly. Moreover, they are playing on the second night of a back-to-back following yesterday’s close win over Phoenix. It was their second win in 3 games, but in between those victories they suffered an embarrassing 52-point loss to Toronto. It was nice to get a win over Phoenix, for sure, but I’m not ready to say all of the issues have been fixed just like that. After all, Orlando did commit 25 turnovers in the win — which makes it even that more impressive that it was able to prevail. Orlando is winless in its last 5 games against East opponents, and it has also covered just 3 times in 9 games against teams from the Southeast Division.

The 3-ball has gone ice cold in the last 2 games for the Magic, with them connecting on just 9 and 10 threes. This team won’t wow you away with its play on the offensive end, and that could prove to be the key against Atlanta. The Hawks are flying high, scoring points for fun. They went over 120 in the last 2 meetings with Orlando; they will also be encouraged by having the rest advantage here. I’ll side with the more proven team.

Hawks vs Magic prediction: Atlanta -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

This number immediately stands out simply because of how high it is. Totals approaching 240 automatically put the Under in my crosshairs, because they require near-perfect offensive conditions for 4 quarters. For this to go Over, multiple assumptions have to hold — and each comes with risk. First, Philadelphia has to be consistently efficient offensively. While capable, the 76ers are not immune to stretches during which the offense slows. Second, Washington has to contribute meaningfully to the scoring. That’s far less reliable. The Wizards have struggled to sustain offense and often fall into extended droughts, which is dangerous when trying to reach a number this high.

Even if Philadelphia scores at a strong clip, the total still depends on Washington keeping pace. If one side lags, even briefly, the margin for error disappears quickly. That’s the problem with inflated totals: they don’t account well for variance. There isn’t a team that can be undermined by the “V-word” more than the Wizards. Games rarely play out perfectly from start to finish. Missed shots, slower stretches and game-flow disruptions all work against a number this high. With both teams needing to deliver offensively to an unrealistic degree, the Over becomes a reach. That places the value squarely on the Under.

76ers vs Wizards prediction: Under 239.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 239.

This matchup is likely to be defined by defense and possession control, which immediately increases the value of an underdog — especially at home. This is a game in which things will likely slow down, making possessions count, and forcing opponents into half-court execution. That naturally compresses margins and creates more volatility in the outcome. When possessions are limited and scoring is harder to come by, games often come down to execution in tight moments rather than overall firepower. That’s where Miami offers value. This is a game played in inches, and holding a ticket at +170 offers equity because of that.

What makes Miami equally appealing is that the Heat aren’t 1-dimensional. If the game unexpectedly opens up, the Heat have the ability to adjust and play at a higher tempo, as well. That flexibility allows them to match whatever style Boston brings or if the C’s want to start firing off from 3-point land. When 2 teams can mirror each other stylistically, value shifts toward the side catching plus money — in this case at nearly a +200 price. Miami doesn’t just have a path to cover; it has a legitimate path to win outright.

Celtics vs Heat prediction: Miami ML (+170) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The 2 teams at the bottom of the Central Division in the Eastern Conference will meet Wednesday night when the Indiana Pacers travel to take on the Chicago Bulls. This will be the fourth and final time these teams meet this season. The Pacers have won all 3 games against the Bulls this year, with their last win coming against Chicago 113-110 on January 28. These teams played in Chicago back on December 5, a game the Pacers won 120-105. With both teams eliminated from playoff contention, the Pacers will try to earn a season sweep of the Bulls tonight. To get there, Indiana will need to win back-to-back road games — something it hasn’t done all season. The Pacers won their last game on the road against the Orlando Magic 128-126. Pascal Siakam scored 37 points off 50% shooting. Siakam has played well down the stretch, averaging 22.4 points per game in his last 5 games. He has been even better against Chicago, averaging 26.7 points per game on 48% shooting against the Bulls this season.

Before jumping on the Pacers’ bandwagon, it is important to remember the struggles the Pacers have had all season. Before their road win at Orlando, the Pacers had gone through a stretch in which they lost 18 of their 19 games played. They have been the NBA’s worst team on the road this season with a record of 6-31 when playing away from Indiana. They haven’t been much better against the spread with a record of 13-24 on the road. The Bulls are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games behind solid play from Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis. They understand they are winless against the NBA’s worst team heading into this game. That should be all the motivation they need to go out and beat their division rival tonight.

Pacers vs Bulls prediction: Chicago -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Milwaukee Bucks travel to face the Houston Rockets on April 1 in a cross-conference matchup, with Houston at 46-29 and Milwaukee at 30-45. The Rockets have been dominant at home with a 26-10 record and enter on a 3-game winning streak, including a 111-94 victory over New York. Houston averages 114.4 points per game while allowing 109.9, shooting 47.6% from the field and collecting 48.1 rebounds per game. Kevin Durant leads the offense with 25.9 ppg, while Alperen Sengun adds 20.7 points, 8.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists — giving Houston a balanced scoring attack and strong interior presence.

Milwaukee has struggled throughout the season, posting a 13-24 road record while allowing 116.6 points per game compared to 110.6 scored. The absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo has further impacted efficiency and consistency on both ends, placing more pressure on secondary scoring options. This matchup is driven primarily by a clear betting trend, as the Bucks are 25-12 to the under on the road and the Rockets are 24-12 to the under at home. With both teams consistently producing lower-scoring outcomes in these environments and Houston controlling tempo during its recent stretch, this shapes up as a strong system-based play.

Bucks vs Rockets prediction: Under 217.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 216.5.

The New York Knicks have endured a tough road trip. They have gone 0-3 with double-digit losses to the Charlotte Hornets, Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets. The Knicks will try to end this trip with a win when they travel Wednesday night to take on the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have been one of the many teams tanking near the end of the season, losing 14 of their last 16 games. They lost their last game at home to the Phoenix Suns 131-105 with many of their starters out. With Ja Morant, Zach Edey, Ty Jerome, Brandon Clarke, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope all sidelined, the Grizzlies’ lineup is mainly led by Cedric Coward and Cam Spencer. Despite these 2 being Memphis’ best players on the floor, it is playing a lot of younger players to see what talent it has for next year. Both Coward and Spencer are only averaging around 24 minutes per game in their last 10. With all of the inexperience in this Memphis lineup, this is a good bounce-back spot for the Knicks.

New York has generally been a good team against the spread this season with a record of 39-38. The Knicks are also near full health for this game. The only player listed on their injury list is Landry Shamet. The Knicks understand the importance of this game. The Cavaliers currently sit only a game back in the standings for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference. With limited games left in the season, the Knicks need to win this game tonight. I’m looking for New York to jump ahead by double-digits early and never look back.

Knicks vs Grizzlies prediction: New York -14.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Toronto Raptors were involved in a high-scoring 127-116 game against the Detroit Pistons last night. Tonight they will host the Sacramento Kings, with whom they combined for 231 points earlier this year. Brandon Ingram had been listed as questionable to play ahead of their game last night, but he did take to the floor and dropped a 22-point performance. He should be available to lead the Raptors’ offense here too. Over the last 10 games the Kings have been allowing teams to score 122.4 points per contest and a Raptors team with their top scorer on the floor could be set to follow suit.

Over those last 10 games the Kings are down in 29th in defensive rating, which is not where you want to be when up against a Raptors team that is fifth in offensive rating during that stretch. Toronto, however, ranks in the bottom 10 in opponent 3-point percentage. That should give the visitors a great avenue of doing their part scoring wise. Both teams have ranked in the top 10 in 3-point percentage over the last 10 games, too. That should go a long way toward helping these teams combine for over 226 points.

Kings vs Raptors prediction: Over 226 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 227.

The Denver Nuggets face the Utah Jazz in a Western Conference matchup featuring 2 teams trending in opposite directions. Denver enters at 48-28 and is riding a 6-game winning streak, most recently defeating Golden State 116-93 behind Nikola Jokic’s 25 points and 15 rebounds. The Nuggets rank among the league’s most efficient offenses, averaging 120.33 points per game while shooting 49.2% from the field and 39.2% from 3. Jokic continues to anchor the team, coming off a 33-point, 15-rebound and 12-assist triple-double in a recent win over Utah. Jamal Murray has provided elite secondary scoring, including a 31-point, 14-assist performance in that same matchup. Denver’s combination of elite spacing, efficient shooting and transition scoring makes it difficult to slow down, particularly against teams struggling defensively.

Utah enters at 21-53 and continues to struggle defensively, especially in high-tempo games. The Jazz have lost 10 of their last 11 and recently fell 122-113 to Cleveland, allowing 82 points in the paint. Despite the record, Utah has shown offensive upside in this matchup — scoring 125 points in a 128-125 loss to Denver earlier this month, with multiple players contributing in a fast-paced contest. The Jazz’s young core, including Kyle Filipowski and Cody Williams, continues to push tempo and create scoring opportunities — but defensive breakdowns remain a consistent issue. With Denver’s elite efficiency and Utah’s willingness to play fast despite defensive struggles, this game projects as a high-scoring environment — particularly given their previous meeting’s pace and scoring output.

Nuggets vs Jazz prediction: Over 248.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 250

The San Antonio Spurs and Victor Wembanyama are not messing around. They have not taken their foot off the gas pedal one bit, even though the #2 seed in the West is pretty much wrapped up at this point. Wemby just had a 41-point, 16-rebound and 3-block performance in just 31 mins as the Spurs won their ninth game in a row. Their Net Rating during this win streak is an impressive +18 points, so it’s no wonder they’re once again double-digit favorites at Chase Center on Wednesday. The interesting part is that they have 2 defeats in 3 meetings with the Warriors this year. However, in those Golden State wins, Stephen Curry went off for 46 and 49 points. In the lone meeting without him, San Antonio dominated by 13 points.

Everything hinges on Curry’s return for the Warriors. Although he is close to coming back there is still no definitive date set for that to happen. To say that it’s been a struggle without him would be an understatement. The offensive rating falls off by almost 9 points per 100 possessions when Curry is out. The Warriors do have 3 wins in their last 4 games, but those have come against Dallas, Brooklyn and Washington — not exactly competitive teams at this point of the season. They just got blown out by the Denver Nuggets 116-93, failing to cover for the sixth time in 7 games. Judging by their run of 6 games in a row without covering at home, it could be a struggle against San Antonio, as well.

This is all about Wemby and him making his MVP case. The Spurs are showing no mercy; they are just the better team overall here and should dominate right from the get-go. Golden State is 2 games away from the ninth seed with 7 left to play, and it will be unenthused by last night’s Trail Blazers win over the Clippers. I’ll go with the safer option and back San Antonio.

Spurs vs Warriors prediction: San Antonio -13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.