NBA Picks

The Boston Celtics come into this matchup with significant momentum and statistical advantages, even without Jayson Tatum (out rehabbing from an Achilles repair). Boston is 15-9 on the season and has been strong on both ends of the court. Nobody expected this rise in the standings once they started 0-3. Jaylen Brown leads the club with 29.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game, shooting nearly 50% from the field, while Derrick White and Payton Pritchard provide consistent scoring and playmaking. Their offense has been balanced and efficient, and recent defensive effort — especially in transition and on the perimeter — has been notably improved. That blend of scoring depth and defensive focus has helped Boston string together multiple key wins and take control of games, even without Tatum.

The Milwaukee Bucks have struggled to find consistency, sitting at 10-15 and battling through injuries and roster changes. The biggest blow has been Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is sidelined with a calf strain and expected to miss multiple weeks. Giannis was averaging 28.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 6.1 assists before the injury, and his absence leaves a massive void on both ends. In his place, players like Ryan Rollins (16.7 PPG and 5.4 APG) have stepped up, but they haven’t matched Milwaukee’s traditional two-way impact. Combined with some recent defensive lapses and inconsistent scoring production, the Bucks lack the firepower and matchup versatility to outpace a balanced Celtics attack. Given Boston’s superior scoring depth, healthier rotation, and overall form, Celtics −9 looks like the stronger play tonight.

Celtics vs Bucks prediction: Boston Celtics -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

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The Houston Rockets (15-6) bring one of the NBA’s most explosive offenses into this matchup — averaging around 120.9 PPG on nearly 48.7% shooting — powered by Kevin Durant’s 25.3 PPG and Alperen Sengun’s 23.1 PPG, 9.1 RPG, and 7.1 APG. Their offensive efficiency, improved spacing, and ability to generate second chance points have kept them near the top of the West. Houston occasionally has defensive lapses, but its pace, ball movement, and shot creation give the Rockets the ability to dictate tempo against most opponents. With Amen Thompson facilitating and their depth producing consistently, the Rockets often thrive in games where possessions increase and scoring accelerates.

The Clippers, despite a 6-18 record, still have legitimate scoring firepower with James Harden (26.8 PPG, 8.3 APG) and Kawhi Leonard (25.4 PPG) leading the offense. Los Angeles averages 111.6 PPG, and even in losses, the Clippers routinely find ways to break the 100-point mark thanks to isolation scoring and the ability to generate free throw opportunities. Their defensive issues — especially guarding the perimeter and preventing transition buckets — make them vulnerable against a high octane team like Houston.

Clippers vs Rockets prediction: Over 222.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 223.5.

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Having 3 days in between games should be good for the Portland Trail Blazers as they try to regain some of the form they had before this run of just 1 win in 6 games. Thursday’s game concludes a 5-game road trip, and from a confidence perspective, it would benefit the Blazers mightily if they can pull off a win here. The struggling Pels are the perfect opponent for them right now. Portland has won 4 of 5 meetings and has covered in 5 of 6, as well. On the road in New Orleans, they’re 4-2 SU in 6 visits. Jrue Holiday might still be out, but even without him, the Blazers are a decent shout here.

New Orleans has seemingly fallen into a hole from which, unfortunately, they just cannot come out of. The consistent injury issues just won’t go away, as Zion Williamson looks to be lost for at least 3 weeks. There just seems to be no good news on the horizon for this team. They’ve dropped 7 games in a row, and dating back to last season, their record in December is 0-14 SU in the last 14 games played. Rookie Derik Queen had a triple-double in their latest loss to San Antonio, but relying on a rookie unless he’s a once in a generation player won’t get you far in today’s NBA.

Almost a month ago, these teams met in New Orleans and the Blazers won 125-117 thanks to 35 points by Shaedon Sharpe. Portland led by as many as 15 in that game. It’s quite clear this match-up suits them so I’ll have a wager on the road team here.

Trail Blazers vs Pelicans prediction: Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Denver Nuggets have won 10 straight games. They will look to make it 11 straight when they travel Thursday night to take on the Sacramento Kings. The Nuggets have an overall record of 17-6 and a road record of 11-2. They have won their last 3 games overall with their last win coming this past Sunday against the Charlotte Hornets 115-106. Jamal Murray led the Nuggets in scoring with 34 points on 14 of 25 shooting, and he averages 25 points per game this season.

The Kings have a record of 6-18 and are 3-7 on their home court. Sacramento has lost 5 of its last 6 games and are coming off a 116-105 loss against the Indiana Pacers. Russell Westbrook led the team in scoring with 24 points on 10 of 16 shooting. Westbrook averages 13.9 points, 7 rebounds, and 7.3 assists a game this season for the Kings. 

This will already be the 4th time these teams have played each other this season. The Nuggets currently lead the season series 2-1. The Nuggets defeated the Kings 130-124 on November 3rd and 122-108 on November 11th. The Kings got the best of the Nuggets in their last meeting on November 22nd, beating them 128-123. Westbrook led the Kings in scoring against his former team in 2 out of the 3 matchups, while Nikola Jokic dominated in all 3 by averaging 37.7 points per game. With Domantas Sabonis out of the lineup for Sacramento with an injury, Jokic may even be able to increase that number.

The Kings offense is not a unit I like to back. They rank 28th in the NBA in points per game at 111.4. The Kings also rank 28th in points differential at -10.6. With that number being right around tonight’s spread, and the Nuggets showing no signs of slowing down on their road winning streak, I like for the Nuggets to win and extend their streak tonight. 

Nuggets vs Kings prediction: Denver Nuggets -10 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Thunder are the story of the season — 24–1, defending champs, and blasting opponents en route to the NBA Cup semifinals. Because of that, the market is pricing them at a premium, and anyone backing OKC here is paying for the hype as much as the team. That’s where the overlay risk comes in and makes the Spurs the sharp side but to back, but that leads more into what we are really here to talk about – the total.

San Antonio’s upset win over the Lakers in Los Angeles showed they are not simply passengers in this tournament. The Spurs have improved dramatically since last season, and while they don’t have OKC’s star power, they have enough structure and versatility to compete far better than the point spread or the over/under suggests. The thing is, the Spurs will have to lean into their offense to get the job done here. San Antonio is not built for a defensive showdown like the total suggests, so they will have to find a breakthrough against the Thunder’s stout defense to have a chance. We have to like those prospects, the Spurs put up over 130 against the Lakers in Los Angeles to come away with the W, a game that eclipsed the 240 mark in total. Then there is the other side of it, the Thunder can trample the Spurs and leave them in wreckage, but even if that happens, 225 seems a bit low overall. Take the over.

Spurs vs Thunder prediction: Over 225.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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