NBA Picks

The New Orleans Pelicans are coming into this game after a dominant win over the Washington Wizards, but their recent form suggests they will not be able to recreate this today on the road against the Orlando Magic. The visitors have picked up just 1 win over their last 10 games with just 1 of those losses being by a margin of fewer than 7 points. The Pelicans go into the game without Saddiq Bey and Herbert Jones, with the latter being a major miss defensively. The Magic will remain without key starters in Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner however they should see the return of Mo Wagner, which should improve their depth at center.

Over the last 10 games the Pelicans have been one of the worst teams in the league, ranking 28th in net offensive and defensive rating. Efficiency has been a major issue, with the team also ranking 29th in true shooting percentage over that stretch. They have relied heavily on scoring in the paint considering that they are just 25th in 3-point percentage during that time. The Magic should be well positioned to limit that part of their game. They have plenty of size down low with Wendell Carter Jr. and the likes of Jonathan Isaac and Goga Bitadze providing great rim protection off the bench. The return of Wagner should help matters further. Look for the hosts to contain the Pelicans and pick up a comfortable win here.

New Orleans Pelicans vs Orlando Magic prediction: Magic -6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Magic -8.

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That streak of being the 2nd best defense in the NBA was short lived for the Brooklyn Nets who have now dropped 5 of 6 games, ranking 26th in defensive efficiency. Getting Cam Thomas back from injury hasn’t yielded the result many Nets fans were hoping, in fact there are question marks whether or not his comeback is one of the reasons for their recent struggles. Obviously, it would be easiest to blame just one played, but I’m more of the opinion that the Nets’ issues are more wide spread than just Cam Thomas playing or not. Sunday sees them take on the Memphis Grizzlies, another teams that’s currently struggling. It’s been a tough challenge facing the Grizz in recent years, Brooklyn has come out on top just 4 times in 13 meetings.

Similarly to Atlanta and their situation with Trae Young, the Memphis Grizzlies have finally announced they are listening to offers for their franchise point guard Ja Morant. When he plays the Grizz are just 6-12 SU, while with him out of the line-up they’re at 10-10 SU. It’s unclear if he will suit up on Sunday, just 2 days after Memphis let a 21-point lead slip away in a narrow 1-point loss against Oklahoma City. This team has won just once in 7 games, the 11th seeded Clippers have now closed the gap to just 1.5 games for the final play-in tournament position.

Both teams are really struggling at the moment, with an identical record over their last 5 games. Until Memphis resolves the Morant situation I’ll stay away from backing them. I’ll go with the Nets in this one, purely because of MPJ and his scoring ability.

Brooklyn Nets vs Memphis Grizzlies Predictions: Nets +7 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Ever since winning the NBA Cup Final the Knicks have been a different team. They’ve won just once in 6 games, while from a betting perspective they’ve covered just twice in 13 games causing a lot of frustration in the betting community.  Josh Hart’s absence from the line-up is proving to be a real issue, the Knicks would be wise to add a back-up at his position before the trade deadline arrives if possible. On Sunday the Nets are in Portland to take on the red-hot Trail Blazers, a team they’ve owned over the past couple of seasons with 5 wins in a row in head-to-head meetings. However, relying on that would be foolish ahead of this game, New York’s recent form tells us they could struggle yet again here.

What Deni Avdija and his Portland Trail Blazers are doing right now is nothing short of remarkable. They’ve won 5 games in a row, all against Western Conference opponents which has elevated them to 9th in the standings and just 1 win away from the .500 mark. With averages of 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 7 assists per game, it’s quite possible we see Avdija in the all-star game this year. Just a couple of nights ago he dropped 41 points on the Houston Rockets, one of the elite defensive teams in the NBA. During the win streak only Boston has a better offensive rating than the Blazers, they’ve been particularly lethal from downtown averaging 16.4 makes per game (3rd highest).

Can we really trust the Knicks with a 8-10 SU and 5-13 ATS record on the road this season? Their 5-game road trip is off to a bad start after the loss to Phoenix, without Josh Hart they might have issues dealing with Avdija on the defensive end here. It sounds weird to say for a team that’s on a 5-game win streak, but I’ll take a gamble on the Trail Blazers in this one.

New York Knicks vs Portland Trail Blazers Predictions: Trail Blazers +4.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Just like many other bettors I was under the impression that the Miami Heat will have a relatively easy job last night against the Indiana Pacers, but they completely laid an egg and lost by 23 points to arguably the worst team in the league right now. Miami never led, they were down by as many as 29 points at one point, to be completely blunt about it they flat out embarrassed themselves. It was their 2nd loss in a row by double-digits, now they head to OKC for a date with the champs who are looking for their 19th win in 21 home games so far this season. Miami has just 1 win in 5 meetings against this team.

Backing OKC against the spread hasn’t yielded a profit in 4 consecutive games, once again they are double-digit favorites after just barely beating the Jazz and Grizzlies in their last 2 games. SGA is expected back in the line-up after skipping the Memphis game, it’s been a shaky couple of weeks for the best team in basketball. Things are improving after those two wins though, they’re playing a team whose style of play really suits them on Sunday, so I anticipate the Thunder will have an easier job scoring the basketball here.

Miami is just 7-12 SU on the road, playing a team that gets its best player back fresh after sitting out the last game. OKC has just 3 losses in 20 home games, they’re also 7-1 SU in 8 vs East coast opponents. Beating someone by 14 points is never easy, but can we really trust Miami after last night’s loss in Indiana? I hope the Thunder crush them here.

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Predictions: Thunder -14 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Two of the top teams in the Western Conference are prepared to go head-to-head on Sunday evening when the Minnesota Timberwolves host the visiting San Antonio Spurs. Both teams enter the contest with a sense of fatigue, as they both play their 4th game in 6 days, and neither team has put out their injury reports. Don’t be shocked if we see some rest management or limited minutes on either side, especially San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama, who suffered a bone bruise to his left knee at the start of the month.

The injury forced Wembanyama to miss a pair of games and he’s come off the bench on a minute’s restriction in each of the last 3 games. Wemby didn’t sit out on the second leg of a back-to-back last week, but we’ll have to wait and see if the Spurs give him the green light or opt for extra rest on Sunday. Regardless or Wembanyama’s status for Sunday, the Spurs appear to be the correct play in this spot. San Antonio is 9-4 against the spread in the underdog role and they have some momentum heading to Minnesota with recent wins over the Lakers and Celtics. The Timberwolves suffered a tough loss to the Cavaliers on Saturday in a fast-paced game that saw a combined 280 points. Let’s back San Antonio to keep this game close and cover on the road.

San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction: Spurs +2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Denver Nuggets will host the Milwaukee Bucks in a non-conference matchup Sunday night. The Nuggets have a record of 25-13 this season, and they are 10-6 on their home court. Denver has lost 3 of their last 5 games, and they are coming off a 110-87 loss against the Atlanta Hawks. Peyton Watson led the team in scoring with 25 points, but the Nuggets could not overcome 19 turnovers. The Bucks have a record of 17-21, and they are 8-12 when playing on the road. Milwaukee has won three of their last four games, including their last win against the Los Angeles Lakers at a score of 105-101. Kevin Porter Jr. led the team in scoring with 22 points, and Giannis Antetokounmpo had two key stops against LeBron James in the final minute to secure the victory.

The story for both of these teams this season has been injuries to their star players. The Bucks lost Antetokounmpo earlier in the season to injury, and they went 3-11 with him out of the lineup. Now that Antetokounmpo is back and healthy, the Bucks look rejuvenated and are back to playing winning basketball. Now it’s the Nuggets turn to play without their star. Nikola Jokic went down with an injury that will keep him out at least four weeks. The Nuggets are 3-3 without Jokic, but their offensive numbers have dropped significantly without the former MVP. The Nuggets have averaged 109.2 points, 38 rebounds, and shot 45% from the field in their last six games. Those numbers are well below their season average of 123.1 points, 43 rebounds, and 50.5% shooting from the field. The Nuggets were just embarrassed on their home floor by the Hawks, and they are in danger of losing again tonight. 

Bucks vs Nuggets prediction: Bucks -2 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Washington Wizards will travel Sunday night to take on the Phoenix Suns in a non-conference matchup. The Wizards have a record of 10-27 this season, and they are 4-14 when playing on the road. Washington has lost 3 of their last 4 games, including their last loss against the New Orleans Pelicans at a score of 128-107. Kyshawn George led the team in scoring with 15 points. The Wizards had seven players scoring in double figures in the losing effort. The Suns have a record of 23-15 this season, and they are 13-5 on their home court. Phoenix has won four of their last five games, including their last win over the New York Knicks at a score of 112-107. Devin Booker led the team in scoring with 31 points, and Dillon Brooks added 27 points. 

The Wizards are the worst team in the NBA. Well, they were until recently. In the Wizards last 14 games, they have a record of 7-7, and they are beginning to show a lot more potential. Alex Sarr, Kyshawn George, and Bilal Coulibally have begun to show that they could be key pieces towards the Wizards future. A change that head coach Brian Keefe made that could be the reason towards better success is making Tre Johnson a full-time starter. The Wizards are 4-4 since that decision has been made, and Johnson has answered the call by averaging 13.8 points in games he has started. Johnson’s career high of 24 points came against the Suns earlier this season. The Wizards are much better than their record shows. If you just look at the last month, they are a .500 team. I’ll side with the Wizards to give the Suns a challenging effort in the desert tonight.

Wizards vs Suns prediction: Wizards +14 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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All of the Atlanta Hawks issues have been resolved with the trade of Trae Young, right? It sure felt that way on Friday night as they dominated the Denver Nuggets on the road 110-87. For the 2nd game in a row their opponents have really struggled scoring the basketball, that’s been the main criticism of the team with Young in the line-up this season. Jalen Johnson now takes full control of the offense which should benefit his development greatly, better days area ahead for Atlanta. Speaking of better days, they haven’t had many of those in recent road games at Chase Center going just 1-11 SU in 12 visits.

The turbulence that the Golden State Warriors have been going through over the past couple of weeks has slowed down a bit, or so it seems. Draymond Green has cooled off a bit, that’s brought stability and instilled the younger players with some confidence on the defensive end. The last 4 opponents have scored 103, 113, 103 and 114 points against Golden State, solid numbers for the 8th best defense in the NBA in terms of efficiency. Playing at home here should be a major confidence boost, given that the Warriors are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.

This game will be a good test for the Hawks and it will tell us if this whole Trae Young saga was just a that, or they really are a much better team without him. With their defense improving quite a bit without him and Golden State also playing well on that end, I’ll be focused on taking the under in this game. This bet has cashed in 5 of 6 Hawks game lately, make it 6 of 7 after Sunday.

Atlanta Hawks vs Golden State Warriors Predictions: Under 233.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Alperen Sengun has been listed as questionable to play tonight as the Houston Rockets visit the Sacramento Kings. The Turkish center has been pivotal to the Rockets offense this season, leading the team in assists. Without him the visitors are just not the same team. He has played just 1 minute of basket over the last 4 contests and his team has not managed to score more than 105 points in any of those games. They will be up against a Kings team that has injury concerns on their frontline, with Domantas Sobonis and Keegan Murray both listed as out. They have failed to score more than 105 points in any of their last 4 games too and with Denis Schroeder suspended, their struggles look set to continue.

Over the last 10 games neither team has been pushing the tempo, with both ranking in the bottom 10 of the league in pace. The Rockets in fact have played at the 2nd slowest pace in the NBA. That does not lend itself well to this being a high scoring contest, especially with the teams 25th and 30th in true shooting percentage during that stretch. The visitors also lead the league in rebounding percentage over those games, meaning that the Kings team that is dead last in offensive rating should be continuously limited to one possession tonight, preventing quick second chance points. As a result, it is hard to see which of the teams would be capable of carrying this game over the 222-point mark.

Houston Rockets vs Sacramento Kings prediction: Under 222 available at time of publishing. Playable to under 220.5.

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