NBA Picks

After the opening game of this second-round series, the Knicks surely looked like the top team in the Eastern Conference, and New York was a massive -10.5 favorite on Wednesday following the announcement that Joel Embiid would miss Game 2 due to injury. However, contrary to popular public sentiment before the game, the 76ers were able to band together and play with a ton of desperation and grit without their superstar big man, covering the spread but ultimately coming up short in the final minutes. It was the first time that the Knicks had been in a close game since suffering a 1-point defeat at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks back on April 23, so it had to have been encouraging for the players and coaching staff to close out a hard-fought victory at home — even if they were unable to cover the huge spread. That said, Philadelphia should have at least 1 more high-level effort game in them, and the Knicks are also dealing with a pretty significant injury that could really hamper them on both ends of the floor in Game 3.

Generally speaking, teams in the playoffs that head home after suffering a pair of defeats on the road tend to perform very well in Game 3. Logically, it makes sense; the home team is going to get a significant boost from its fans and the visitors are going to have to deal with a hostile road environment after being at home for 2 games. Furthermore, it’s hard to imagine that New York’s insanely high level of play to continue for 48 more minutes away from Madison Square Garden, especially with the news that OG Anunoby is likely to miss this game with a hamstring strain. Anunoby has arguably been the best player on the Knicks during this postseason run, and his contributions will be sorely missed on both ends of the floor.

With the Knicks’ best defender out of the lineup, there should be plenty of opportunities for the likes of Tyrese Maxey and Paul George to put up strong performances in a spot where the Sixers offense should succeed at home. With Embiid off the floor, the 76ers are able to play fast and get the Knicks on their heels a bit defensively, which we saw at different points in Game 2. If Embiid does end up playing in this one, Philadelphia’s offense has a much higher ceiling, as the Sixers should have multiple shooters on the court surrounding Embiid at all times. The home team down 2-0 trend has been a consistent cash cow over the years, and I’m not going to ignore it now. Take the Sixers on the money line. 

Knicks vs 76ers Game 3 prediction: Philadelphia 76ers ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs head to Minneapolis for a pivotal Game 3 with the series tied 1-1, and through 2 games, the matchup has been defined far more by defense and physicality than offensive rhythm. Minnesota narrowly escaped with a 104-102 win in Game 1 despite a dominant defensive showing from Victor Wembanyama, who altered nearly every shot around the rim. San Antonio responded emphatically in Game 2 with a 133-95 blowout, forcing 22 turnovers and completely disrupting Minnesota’s offense from the opening quarter. The Spurs controlled tempo through aggressive perimeter defense and transition execution, while the Timberwolves struggled to generate consistent half-court scoring. Anthony Edwards, still working back from a knee injury, looked limited at times and failed to establish offensive flow, while Minnesota’s supporting cast provided little scoring support.

As the series shifts to Minnesota, expect a much more focused and urgent effort from the Timberwolves, particularly on the defensive end — where they’ve been one of the league’s best teams throughout the postseason. However, stylistically, this matchup still strongly points toward a slower, more methodical game. San Antonio has had success controlling pace and forcing half-court possessions rather than turning games into track meets, and Minnesota is unlikely to push tempo either given Edwards’ condition and the need to avoid live-ball turnovers. Playoff adjustments in swing games also tend to tighten rotations and increase physicality, making efficient scoring harder to sustain for both sides.

Even though Game 2 finished with a high total, the overall structure of this series suggests that result was more of an outlier fueled by turnovers and transition opportunities. With both teams now fully adjusted to each other’s schemes and Minnesota expected to prioritize cleaner possessions and defensive discipline, this projects as a much more controlled contest. Possessions should become more deliberate, transition chances more limited, and scoring runs harder to maintain.

Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 3 prediction: Under 216.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 215.

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The difference so far in the series between the Pistons and Cavaliers might just be Cade Cunningham. Detroit’s point guard played the entire 4th quarter of Game 2, making plays for the Pistons down the stretch and finishing the game with 25 points and 10 assists. That ties Pistons great Isiah Thomas for most 25 and 10 games in the postseason, Cleveland just hasn’t had an answer for the size and physicality of Cunningham at the point guard position. Going into Game 3 there’s very little pressure on the Pistons, they’ve done their part by protecting home court and if they can get anything out of the next two games it’ll be a bonus for them. Their last 11 visits to Cleveland have seen them win just once though, so history isn’t on their side here.

As good as Cade has been for Detroit so far, James Harden has been the complete opposite for the Cavaliers. Whenever you have a point guard on your team accumulating more turnovers than field goals made, you will be in trouble. That’s exactly what’s happened to Harden in the first two games of this series, he’s got 11 TOs compared to just 9 FGs made. Evan Mobley is another huge disappointment so far in the series. He had just 1 (yes, one) rebound in Game 2, far too little for the former Defensive Player of the Year. Head coach Kenny Atkinson will have to come up with a completely new gameplan in the next two games, one that will get Mobley going offensively and defensively and one that’ll slow down the production of Cade Cunningham.

Cleveland is undefeated at home this postseason, which is something they’ll be counting on to continue in Game 3. It is a pivotal game for the home side, as they cannot afford to go down 3-0 here. Aside from Game 7 vs Toronto, this could be their 2nd most important game of the season and I expect them to bring their energy levels up and give it their best in what is almost an elimination game. Cleveland takes Game 3 and makes things interesting here.

Pistons vs Cavaliers Game 3 predictions: Cavaliers -4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.