NBA Picks

Indiana made the splashy move of acquiring Ivica Zubac before the trade deadline, but the Croatian big man isn’t likely to feature in the Pacers line-up until after the All-Star break as he heals from an ankle injury. The team has lost 4 games in a row and is coming off a tough loss in Toronto. A lot has been said about teams tanking over these last couple of months of the NBA season, Indiana falls into the category of teams who would be better off if they just gave up on the remainder of this season, but knowing the mentality of head coach Rick Carlisle I do not believe he will allow his players to throw games on purpose.

The Knicks got a big win in Boston on Super Bowl Sunday, washing the bitter taste in their fans’ mouths following a 38-point demolition at the hands of the Pistons the day before that. KAT stepped up in the rebounding department with 10 boards, he will have to play closer to the basket on Tuesday as Mitchell Robinson has been ruled out with an injury. The Pacers don’t necessarily rely all that much on attacking the rim, but if the painted area is wide open they’ll look to change their approach. The Knicks will have things to respond with though, apart from that Detroit game they’ve been putting up points in bunches over the past 9 games or so.

Only one point separated the two teams in the first meeting of the season, so can we really trust the Knicks to blow out Indiana here? The Pacers are 5-2 ATS in 7 meetings as well, playing without any pressure whatsoever here. Although they are hampered by injuries, I still feel like they’ll give it their best in this rivalry game against the Knicks. I’ll back Indiana plus the massive spread here.

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Predictions: Pacers +12 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Los Angeles Lakers will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation when they host the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night. With Luka Doncic sidelined and fatigue possibly a factor, L.A. is a risky play. At the same time, giving 8.5 points with San Antonio is not particularly enticing. Instead, I will pivot to the game total. My Spurs vs Lakers pick is Over 228.5. Five of the Lakers’ 8 back-to-back second legs so far this season have resulted in 230 points or more. Additionally, the over is 3-0 in San Antonio’s last 3 overall and 7-2-1 in the last 10 head-to-head encounters.

LeBron James has played in both legs of each of Los Angeles’ last 2 back-to-back scenarios. With Doncic out and having lost on Monday, head coach JJ Redick really needs his veteran superstar back on the floor to take on one of the league’s best teams. James has scored 20 points or more in 5 of his last 6 appearances. Meanwhile, the Spurs have heated back up following a 2-3 stretch. They are riding a 4-game winning streak that has seen them score 135 and 138 points in the last 2 contests — both against the Mavericks. It was a good thing that San Antonio’s offense was rocking, because it gave up 123 and 125 points to Dallas in those 2 outings. Let’s roll with the over in this Tuesday night Western Conference blockbuster.

Spurs vs Lakers prediction: Over 228.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In my best bets analysis, I asked if the Hornets are for real. That question gets answered tonight. Over the last 9 games, few teams in the league have played better basketball than the Hornets; they have won all of those games. The recent surge isn’t built on unsustainable shot-making; it’s coming from structure. The Hornets have settled into a defensive identity, they are taking smarter offensive looks and they have shown the ability to control tempo whether the game speeds up or slows down.

Now comes the measuring stick. Detroit enters with the best record in the Eastern Conference at 38-13, and on the surface it feels easy to lay a short number with the conference leader against a team still sitting below .500. But the records don’t fully reflect the current form on the floor. If Charlotte was simply riding a temporary heater, this number would be wider. Instead, the market is signaling respect for how competitive the Hornets have been. This is a tone-setting opportunity with the all-star break approaching. Charlotte has momentum, confidence and a home environment that should reflect the stakes. Teams in this position often treat games like this as playoff auditions, and the energy level typically follows. If the recent defensive commitment and shot discipline hold, Charlotte makes a statement. The Hive should be buzzing tonight.

Pistons vs Hornets prediction: Charlotte ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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The Chicago Bulls have lost their last 3 road games and they have lost 7 of their last 8 games overall. Despite the recent losing streak, Chicago will head into Brooklyn on Monday night as a favorite against the Nets. The Nets currently hold the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference at 14-37 and they are the coldest team in the East with only 2 wins in their last 10 games. The Brooklyn Nets have won 2 of the 3 games played against Chicago this season.

Since the last time these 2 teams played, Chicago has completely revamped its roster. Ayo Dosunmu, Kevin Huerter, Coby White and Nikola Vucevic were all dealt, while the Bulls brought in Collin Sexton, Jaden Ivey, Anfernee Simons, Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller and Nick Richards. A common complaint about the new rendition of the Bulls’ lineup is how many guards they have and their lack of bigs. This restructure has not yet produced in a win and has resulted in poor defense. In their last four losses, the Bulls have allowed their opponents to shoot 53% from the field and 47% from 3-point range. Due to their lack of size, the Bulls have been unable to stop opponents in the paint. In its last loss against Denver, Chicago surrendered 60 points in the paint. The Nets are coming off a convincing 127-113 victory over the Wizards in their last game and they will have the chance to win the season series against the Bulls tonight.

Bulls vs Nets prediction: Brooklyn +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The under fits the most likely script, especially with this game being played in Orlando. The Magic’s identity is built around defensive control and tempo management, and that approach tends to become even more pronounced on their home floor. When Orlando dictates the environment, games shift away from flow and into half-court possessions, longer trips and tougher scoring windows.

The spread is also a key indicator here. With Orlando laying around nine points, this isn’t projected as a back-and-forth track meet. When the Magic are significant favorites, it’s typically because their defense is expected to commute and their half-court style is positioned to grind opponents down. That means extended possessions, contested shot quality and fewer easy scoring opportunities at the rim or in transition. Milwaukee has the offensive talent to produce, but the path becomes narrower in this type of environment. If the Magic establish control early and play from ahead, the pace naturally slows even further. Orlando is comfortable shortening games with clock management and defensive discipline, turning each possession into a time-consuming battle. That’s where totals struggle. When the clock becomes a factor and transition chances disappear, efficiency alone has to carry the scoring load. This projects as a controlled, physical game in which pace works against the over from start to finish.

Bucks vs Magic prediction: Under 218.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 218.

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Normally, a total sitting in this range would create reluctance on the over. But this is one of those rare matchups in which the number is elevated for a reason. There’s enough offense to go around on both sides, and more importantly the game environment points toward volume rather than efficiency being the driving force. Miami plays with tempo at home, and Utah is exactly the type of opponent that won’t slow the Heat down. The Jazz don’t dictate pace; they roll with it. That dynamic can quickly turn this game into a track meet where early-clock offense, quick-trigger threes and short defensive trips move the needle.

Utah has documented defensive issues. The Jazz concede clean looks come from multiple areas of the floor, and Miami has the personnel to exploit that wrinkle. But the flip side matters just as much: when the Heat play fast, their own defense loosens — creating scoring opportunities the other way for a team in Utah that loves to score. This shapes up as a fast, open, and to-and-fro contest. Games with that profile don’t creep toward high totals; they attack them. If both teams are pushing pace and generating high shot volume, clearing 243 isn’t a stretch — it’s the expectation.

Jazz vs Heat prediction: Over 242.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation when they host the Atlanta Hawks on Monday night. Minnesota is reeling in a big way right now. It squandered an 18-point second-half lead over the lowly Pelicans on Friday and then got absolutely blown out at home by the Clippers on Sunday. Playing the third game in four nights on the heels of those two disasters is not a recipe for success. Moreover, the T-Wolves are 1-3 straight up in their last 4 overall and 5-8 in their last 13. Although the Hawks are nothing special, they are more than capable of capitalizing on an extremely vulnerable opponent. My Hawks vs Timberwolves prediction is for the visitors to cover.

Atlanta was active prior to the trade deadline, but its starting 5 is basically the one it has been playing with for most of the season and reserves CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert have already gotten plenty of games under their belt with their new team. The chemistry is there for the new-look Hawks, who are a solid 6-3 in their last 9 outings. Home-court advantage may not be a huge boost for the ‘Wolves. They are a decent 17-9 at the Target Center in 2025-26, but the Hawks are actually better on the road than they are at home (16-13 compared to 10-15). Give me Atlanta to keep it close.

Hawks vs Timberwolves prediction: Atlanta +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

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The Sacramento Kings enter this matchup at 12-42, continuing to struggle on both ends of the floor while averaging just 110.8 points per game and surrendering 120.6 ppg, one of the worst defensive marks in the league. Sacramento ranks 22nd in field-goal percentage (46.6%) and 22nd in 3-point shooting (34.9%), and their issues are magnified away from home — where they are 3-23 on the road. Defensive breakdowns in transition and the paint have fueled extended losing stretches, although the Kings occasionally flash competitiveness. Zach LaVine (19.5 ppg) remains their primary scoring option, while Russell Westbrook averages 6.7 assists — tasked with creating offense in an otherwise inconsistent half-court attack.

New Orleans sits at 14-40, but the Pelicans enter with momentum after a 119-115 win over Minnesota — highlighted by Saddiq Bey’s 30-point performance and Zion Williamson’s 29 points. On the season, New Orleans averages 114.5 PPG, slightly more efficient than Sacramento, although defensively they allow 120.9 points per game — creating similar problems in controlling tempo. Trey Murphy III has been a consistent offensive presence by averaging over 22 points per game. The Pelicans have split their last 8 contests. Despite both teams’ defensive flaws, this matchup profiles as less explosive than the total suggests, with Sacramento’s road inefficiency and New Orleans’ tendency to rely on half-court scoring limiting extended runs. With inconsistent shooting, turnover issues and neither team pushing elite pace, this game sets up for a more controlled scoring environment.

Kings vs Pelicans prediction: Under 231.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 229.5.

The Cleveland Cavaliers enter this matchup at 32-21, bringing one of the league’s most efficient offenses into Denver. Cleveland is averaging 119.7 points per game while shooting 47.5% from the field and generating 28.7 assists per game — a reflection of a balanced, ball movement-heavy attack. Donovan Mitchell has been the driving force, averaging 28.9 ppg, while Jarrett Allen adds 14.3 ppg and 8.1 rpg inside. The Cavaliers have won 3 straight games and 5 of their last 7, and earlier this season they defeated Denver 113-108 — powered by 33 points from Mitchell. The addition of James Harden even further adds fuel to the fire. In his Cavs debut, Harden had 23 points on very efficient 7-of-13 shooting from the field.

Denver comes in at 34-19, boasting one of the NBA’s most potent scoring units at 120.4 points per game while shooting an elite 49.5% from the floor. Jamal Murray leads the Nuggets at 23.4 ppg and Denver’s offense hums with 28.0 assists per game, consistently creating high-quality looks. While the Nuggets allow 116.3 ppg, their defensive inconsistency often leads to extended scoring runs on both ends. Denver is also navigating injuries, with Peyton Watson and Aaron Gordon out, but Nikola Jokic and Christian Braun are expected to play — ensuring elite playmaking and scoring remain intact. With both teams ranking in the top half of the league offensively and injury situations favoring offense over defense, this matchup sets up for a fast pace and frequent scoring bursts.

Cavaliers vs Nuggets prediction: Over 238.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 240.5.

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The Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies were both active before the trade deadline, but neither will be able to present what those new-look lineups will mesh on Monday. The Warriors will be without new acquisition Kristaps Porzingis. With Stephen Curry also ruled out, Jimmy Butler injured and Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield no longer on the team, scoring could be a major issue for Golden State. The Grizzlies are dealing with their own injury concerns, too, but have managed to score 115 or more points in both of their last 2 games. A similar performance on Monday would make a blowout loss unlikely.

The Warriors have had issues of late defending in transition considering that they rank 28th in opponent fast-break points per game over the last 10 contests. Their opponents tonight have had to use 6’3” rookie Jahmai Mashack at center. With no strong back to the basket scorer for the Warriors, these small lineups should prove to be very effective for the Grizzlies, allowing them to be very effective in transition. After all, the Dubs are 29th during that stretch of games in points in the paint. With key shooters like Curry out, they will have issues making up for that. Let’s take the points on the Grizzlies.

Grizzlies vs Warriors prediction: Memphis +9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5.

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Losing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to an injury is proving to be a stumbling block for the OKC Thunder, who have now lost back-to-back games. For any team in the NBA that would be nothing out of the ordinary, but for the 40-13 SU defending champs it’s always a stunner when something like this happens. Despite the losing streak, they head into LA as favorites to take on the Lakers — hoping to go up 2-0 in the regular-season series following a 121-92 win against them back in mid-November. OKC is yet to lose 3 games in a row this season; you can bet that they will be playing with an extra edge in order for that not to happen.

Meanwhile, the Lakers will be full of confidence as well following their third win in a row. Playing without Luka Doncic wasn’t detrimental as we thought it would be — at least not against a team like the Warriors, whom they disposed of 105-99. LA has played only 22 home games this season compared to 29 on the road, so you could say that a favorable stretch is coming for them and it’s important to stay locked in. The offense hasn’t collapsed without Doncic as many people thought it would. Austin Reaves is back from injury and doing his best to fill in the gaps. With the addition of Luke Kennard, I think the Lakers will improve a fair bit from downtown.

OKC will probably win outright, but I feel like the Lakers aren’t without a chance despite missing Doncic. They have the advantage of playing at home, plus the Thunder just played yesterday and lost to the Rockets — which means they have very little time to rest and recover. The Lakers have covered 6 times in the last 8 home games and I’m confident they’ll keep things close or possibly even win.

Thunder vs Lakers prediction: Los Angeles +5.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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