NBA Picks

The Clippers feel like the classic “trap” spot on today’s board. Los Angeles has rattled off six straight wins, and that kind of momentum naturally pulls the betting public in. You can already see it coming — every handicapper and tout is lining up to back the Clippers, especially with Chicago’s reputation for being wildly inconsistent. The Bulls have flashed real upside at times this season, but they’ve also sprinkled in some ugly performances that make them hard to trust.

That’s exactly why this number is dangerous. When one side looks too obvious, the oddsmakers often lean into it — hanging a spread that feels generous just to invite a flood of bets. The Clippers’ current winning streak makes them the “safe” play, but in reality it’s the bait. Chicago’s volatility actually plays into this type of situation: they’re fully capable of showing up with energy, knocking down shots, and turning the game into a fist fight that gives them a path to victory. The Clippers also are not exactly a trustworthy road side either, they are 8-14 SU in away tilts. Chicago surprisingly, 13-9 SU in the United Center. The line speaks into this more than recent streaks. This is the kind of matchup where the sharp approach is to fade the crowd. Don’t overthink the narrative — if it looks like free money, it usually isn’t. Lay the points with the Bulls and take the uncomfortable side.

Clippers vs Bulls prediction: Bulls -3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -4.

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The San Antonio Spurs will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation when they visit the Houston Rockets on Tuesday night. In the second legs of Miami’s 7 back-to-backs this season, the games have produced 224 points or fewer on 4 occasions. Another one finished with 225. Another relatively low-scoring game could be in the cards. The under is 8-1 in the Spurs’ last 9 overall and 6-0 in their last 6 on the road. It is also 11-2 in the Rockets’ last 13 games. Additionally, the under is 6-2 in the last 8 head-to-head meetings. I will roll with those trends for my Spurs vs Rockets prediction, which is Under 224.5.

Houston plays at the fourth-slowest pace in the NBA (101.1 possessions per game). San Antonio is in the bottom half of the association in that department. Moreover, Spurs guard Devin Vassell (15.0 ppg) has missed the last 11 games and is doubtful for Tuesday. Houston is without Tari Eason (12.0 ppg). A total of 231 points were scored when the Spurs and Rockets squared off on November 7 in San Antonio, but it should be noted that Houston shot 13-of-27 from 3-point range and the 2 teams combined to go 42-of-46 from the free-throw line. Those are numbers that are unlikely to be replicated. I’m rolling with the under.

Spurs vs Rockets prediction: Under 224.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Even 55 points by Anthony Edwards weren’t enough to eclipse the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday as the Timberwolves lost their 2nd consecutive game. All eyes are on Ant Man on Tuesday in his first game after that magical performance, this time around he faces a team that ranks near the bottom in most statistical categories on defense, so logic would suggest another big performance is on the way, right? The last 5 meetings have seen Edwards average 38.4 points per game, the Jazz are pretty much at his mercy going into Tuesday.

The Jazz return home after a disappointing 4-game trip where they lost all 4 games, allowing 123, 138, 144 and 128 points. In only one of those games they faced an opponent with a winning record, which is a clear indicator of the direction in which this team is going. Lauri Markkanen did not play last night vs the Spurs, but Utah still covered the big spread thanks to Keyonte George scoring 30 and Jusuf Nurkic chipping in 20 plus 9 boards. Once again, it’s a double-digit spread for the Jazz to cover, history is not their friend going into Tuesday’s game.

Minnesota has long dominated this match-up winning 10 of 11 meetings, including 6 of 7 in Salt Lake City. Ant man and co. have covered in 13 of 20 against the Jazz, with their best player likely missing this game and the Jazz being in full-on tank mode, I think we can back the road team without much hesitation here.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Utah Jazz Predictions: Timberwolves -11 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Sacramento Kings will be welcoming a Miami Heat team who will be on the second night of a back-to-back after they suffered a 135-112 loss at the hands of the Golden State Warriors. We could see another high scoring game here as the visitors have been leading the league in pace over the last 10 games. The Kings should look to push the pace too with their opponents being fatigued, which should help ensure there are no shortage of possessions for both sides. With the teams also 19th and 23rd in defensive rating during that stretch of games, neither seems capable of generating stops.

The Kings have seen Domantas Sabonis return to the lineup. While they are easing him back off the bench, it should help their second unit pack a strong scoring punch. Just in their last game his screen setting ability helped Malik Monk go off for 23 points. With Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan carrying the scoring for the starters, the Kings should be more than capable of doing their part for the over. They did score 127 points when the sides met last season too. The Kings have, however, allowed the most points in the paint over the last 10 games so look for the Heat to have success finishing efficiently tonight. Do not be surprised to see the total clear the 240-point mark on Tuesday.

Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings prediction: Over 238 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to over 239.5.

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Toronto looks to turn things around and sweep the regular season series against the Golden State Warriors as the two teams clash for the 2nd and final time this regular season. Just 1 win in 4 game has put the 4th seed in jeopardy for the Raptors, as the 76ers, Magic and Cavaliers are closing in on them. A win at Chase Center would do wonders for the confidence of this team, they’ve actually done solid in recent meetings against the spread, covering 4 times in 5 played. This includes the first meeting of the season which saw Toronto win in a 141-127 shootout.

The Warriors received the worst possible news ahead of this game with Jimmy Butler tearing his ACL in last night’s win over the Heat. The 37-year old will miss the remainder of the season, the hopes of making a deep playoff run are over without him in my opinion. This is one of the older rosters in the NBA with no real substitute for Jimmy, we could see them starting to struggle as soon as Tuesday against the Raptors as they enter scramble mode without their 2nd best player. Draymond Green is also questionable for this game, the emotional leader of the Warriors is doubtful with an ankle problem.

Even though the Raptors have not impressed, they do have the rest advantage here and are playing a shocked Warriors team that just lost their best all-around player and defender. If there was ever a time for them to pull off the upset at Chase Center, it’s Tuesday night. I’m going for an outright win for the road underdogs here.

Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors Predictions: Raptors ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +115.

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