NBA Picks

Just like in the Knicks vs Hawks series, the higher-seeded team lost Game 3 to fall into a 2-1 hole only to be favored by more in Game 4 than it was in its previous loss. The oddsmakers are just begging you to take the underdogs at an inflated price. Hopefully you didn’t fall for it in the Hawks’ case, as they got blown out as +2.5 underdogs by the visiting Knicks. And you shouldn’t fall for it in the Magic’s case, either, as they are the far inferior team despite currently holding the upper hand in this best-of-7 showdown. I’m rolling with the favorites to restore order to the proceedings, so my Pistons vs Magic pick is Detroit -2.5.

It’s hard to see Orlando shooting 11 percentage points better than Detroit from 3-point range like it did on Saturday. Similarly, the Magic — even at home — probably won’t attempt 9 more free-throws than the Pistons. Detroit is by no means an elite 3-point shooting team, but it is far better from downtown than its 30.0 percent effort from downtown so far in this series. The Pistons also attempted the third-most free-throws in the NBA during the regular season, so count on them matching the Magic’s aggressiveness on Monday. There is also no reason to think that Jalen Duren will remain in this slumber (9.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg in this series) for long. This is a guy who averaged 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg during the regular season. In 4 meetings with Orlando, Duren averaged 17.8 ppg and 11.0 rpg — so it’s not like this is some kind of matchup issue for Detroit’s star big man. Give me the visitors in Game 4.

Pistons vs Magic Game 4 prediction: Detroit -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Other than the Los Angeles Lakers, the Oklahoma City Thunder are the most consistent team in these Playoffs. But unlike the Lakers, we expected this from the defending champs. They are yet to encounter any hiccups over the first three games, pushing the Suns to the brink of elimination winning by double-digits every single time. Even the injury to Jalen Williams didn’t disrupt any chemistry, SGA took it upon himself to lead the way with 42 points on a spectacular 15-for-18 from the field. Through the first 3 games the Thunder have committed just 23 turnovers total, if they continue taking care of the basketball like that in Game 4 this series will be over.

I genuinely believed Game 3 was the Suns’ best chance of getting a win in this series. But even a 33-point effort from Dillon Brooks, combined with 26 and 6 assists from Jalen Green wasn’t enough. Devin Booker has left a lot to be desired in these first 3 games, most of his averages are down compared to the regular season as well as his efficiency. OKC has found ways to shut down the Suns’ best player, but with their season on the line I think it’s finally time Booker wakes up a bit. For a shoot first player who is a leader of his team on offense, averaging 15.7 shots per game is far too little in my opinion. Phoenix opened as an 11.5-point underdog here, they’ve covered just 3 times in 12 games entering Game 4.

Getting swept is not something you want to have on your resume if you’re Devin Booker and co., so pride has to kick in at some point for these Suns. They put in a valiant effort in Game 3, only to lose by 12 points. I don’t believe they’ll surrender without a proper fight here. OKC probably advances, but they win by single digits.

Thunder vs Suns Game 4 prediction: Suns +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Minnesota Timberwolves head into Game 5 with a 3-1 series lead over the Denver Nuggets, but the momentum of the series shifted dramatically after Game 4. Minnesota secured a 112-96 win behind a dominant second half, capitalizing on strong defensive stretches and balanced scoring to take control. Despite solid performances from Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Denver struggled to match Minnesota’s energy and execution late. However, the Timberwolves’ win came at a major cost, as Anthony Edwards exited with a knee injury and is expected to miss Game 5, removing their primary offensive engine and late game shot creator. It doesn’t get any better because sharpshooter Donte Divincenzo suffered an achilles tear as well.

That absences fundamentally reshapes this matchup as the series returns to Denver, where the Nuggets now face elimination. Without Edwards, Minnesota will need to rely heavily on secondary scorers to replicate the production that fueled their Game 4 victory—an outcome that feels difficult to sustain under playoff pressure. Denver, meanwhile, is in a clear desperation spot with its season on the line and should respond with increased urgency, leaning on Jokic’s playmaking and Murray’s scoring to dictate tempo. While Minnesota has shown it can compete on the road in this series, the loss of its top option significantly lowers its offensive ceiling. With home court, experience, and a weakened opponent, this sets up as a strong bounce back opportunity for Denver to regain control and win convincingly.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Game 4 prediction: Nuggets -10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -11.5.