NBA Picks

Both Utah and Cleveland have enough offensive talent to post big numbers on the right night, but this total is asking for something close to perfection. 251 points is an extremely high bar in any NBA game, and it requires four full quarters of elite efficiency, clean pace, and minimal cold stretches from both teams. The key issue is that this number sits above what the typical statistical baseline supports. Even accounting for each team’s scoring ability, the combined scoring averages — generally fall below this mark. That means the market is pricing in an ideal shooting environment rather than a realistic one.

And that’s where unders at extreme totals often hold value. Normal NBA variance works in your favor. A couple of missed open threes, a two-minute scoring drought, or a quarter where one team gets stuck in half-court possessions can dramatically impact the final score. It’s not that an over is impossible — it’s that everything has to go right for it to get there. Yes, both teams can explode. But for this number to be cleared, you need both sides to play fast, stay efficient, avoid foul trouble disruptions, and keep scoring deep into the fourth. That’s a thin needle to thread. In this spot, the smarter bet is fading the ceiling and backing the more probable outcome. Under.

Jazz vs Cavaliers prediction: Under 250.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Under 250.

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Boston has already handled Indiana twice this season, and that’s exactly why this spot is more dangerous than it looks. The Celtics are the clear superior team and are viewed as a legitimate playoff threat, while the Pacers have spent the season near the bottom of the standings. That contrast pushes the market toward automatically backing Boston — but scheduling and motivation suggest this is a classic “sandwich” situation.

Boston is coming off a frustrating home loss to San Antonio, a game they led in the fourth quarter before falling by five. Now they head into Indianapolis in a game they’ve dominated all season, while knowing a much higher-profile matchup with Miami looms next on Thursday as they begin a road trip. This is the type of situation where a contender can show up flat: emotional hangover from a tough loss behind them, and a marquee tilt ahead. Indiana, meanwhile, has quietly won two straight and should approach this like a postseason opportunity. For a bottom-feeder, games against elite opponents are statement chances — effort level and focus tend to rise, especially at home. The Pacers don’t need to be better for 48 minutes; they just need to keep it tight long enough for pressure to flip onto Boston. With points in hand, you’re betting on motivation, situation, and potential complacency — all of which favor the underdog. This is the type of game that can even flirt with a true upset. We’re happy to grab the points.

Celtics vs Pacers prediction: Pacers +5.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Back-to-back games with just 101 and 91 points, plus defeats to the Milwaukee Bucks and the San Antonio Spurs has the alarm bells going in the Lakers camp. I wouldn’t say it’s desperation time, but a win is definitely needed to get back on track, the Lakers have fallen to 5th in the Western Conference with just 4 wins over their last 10 games. Losing games in which both LeBron and Luka play isn’t something the Lakers can afford, the odds makers have them favored by 9.5 points for Monday’s game. There’s a good reason for that – they’re 6-0 ATS/SU in 6 meetings with the Kings, while at the Golden 1 Center they’ve covered the spread 11 times in 15 meetings.

The Kings celebrated an unlikely win last night over the Houston Rockets 111-98, ending a 7-game slide. The thing that makes the win even more impressive is the fact that the Rockets had their trio of KD, Sengun and Thompson all playing, but the Kings were never in danger of losing that game. Now the question is can they string together back-to-back performances like that with less than 24 hours in between games? History tells us they cannot. In 6 games played on a back-to-back scenario the Kings are just 1-5 SU, interestingly enough one of those losses came against the Lakers some 2 weeks ago when they got blown out 125-101 on the road.

I’m looking at the Lakers to take out their frustrations on the lowly Kings here. Deandre Ayton should be able to assert himself down low, Sacramento is lacking the size on the interior with Sabonis out. They rank just 26th in opponent rebounds this season, allowing 55.9 per game. I’m backing the road squad here.

Lakers vs Kings prediction: Lakers -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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