NBA Picks

It will be a battle between 2 disappointing teams outside the playoff cut line in the Western Conference when the Sacramento Kings entertain the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday night. The value is on Sacramento as the underdog, so my Mavericks vs Kings prediction is for the home side to cover. When the Mavs improbably won the 2025 NBA Draft lottery, they had grandiose designs of a Big 3 featuring Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg. That is not how the story has played out, however — at least not yet. Irving (knee) has not yet played this season and Davis is questionable for Saturday with an adductor injury. Davis left his team’s Christmas Day loss to Golden State with an apparent groin injury, so the veteran big man is simply banged up in multiple ways these days. What’s new?!?!

Although there are not a whole lot of good things to say about the Kings, at least they are playing at home. Sactown is 4-10 at the Golden 1 Center compared to 3-13 on the road. That’s not saying much; but it’s something. More importantly, the Mavs are horrendous on the road (3-10) compared to a somewhat respectable 9-9 home record. Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray are sidelined, so this more of a fade of Dallas than it is in support of Sacramento. Give me the points, but proceed with caution until Davis’ status is confirmed.

Mavericks vs Kings prediction: Sacramento +3 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Boston Celtics come into this matchup playing some of their best basketball of the season, going 7-3 over their last 10 games while averaging roughly 118 points per game and holding opponents under 109 during that stretch. Jaylen Brown continues to lead the way offensively and has consistently elevated his scoring in recent weeks, while Derrick White and Payton Pritchard provide strong perimeter shooting and secondary playmaking. Boston’s defense has also tightened up, ranking among the league’s best at limiting opponent efficiency and forcing tough half court possessions, which has allowed them to separate from inferior teams rather than playing down to competition.

Indiana, meanwhile, has struggled to find consistency on both ends of the floor. The Pacers sit near the bottom of the standings, averaging just over 109 points per game while allowing close to 118, a combination that has made it difficult to stay competitive against top tier opponents. Pascal Siakam remains their most reliable scorer, but Indiana lacks the depth and shooting to consistently keep pace with elite offenses. Boston already handled the Pacers once this season and matches up favorably again, especially with its ability to control tempo and stretch the floor. Given the Celtics’ current form and Indiana’s ongoing issues, this sets up as a strong spot for Boston to pull away.

Celtics vs Pacers Prediction: Celtics -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -9

The Orlando Magic have struggled to build momentum of late and could continue to have similar issues tonight against the Charlotte Hornets at home. They are a .500 team over the last 10 games with their visitors picking up 4 wins during that stretch. Advance statistics suggest the Hornets have actually been the better team during those games, outranking the hosts in net offensive and defensive rating. And while their 3-12 road record looks weak, their point differential in those games is only -5.5. Do not expect them to get dominated here as a result, especially since they have won 3 of their last 5 games.

The Magic go into this game with a couple of key injury concerns. Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner are both to set to be unavailable for the contest. Suggs is 2nd on the team in defensive rating, while Wagner is one of the team’s leading wing defenders. The Hornets have a lot of fire power in those positions through LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel. While they do go into the game with a couple of injured centers in Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kalkbrenner, it should just allow the visitors to play at a higher pace. Considering the Magic are 21st this season in opponent fast break points per game, it should prove effective. Take the points on the Hornets in this one, the hosts should have issues containing their offense.

Hornets vs Magic prediction: Charlotte Hornets +5.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to Hornets +4.5.

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Just 1 win over a span of 9 games and the Miami Heat are back to being a .500 team, which is a shame considering how impressive they were offensively in the first month and a half of the season. Only Toronto has a worse offensive rating during this stretch, and coincidentally, that’s the team they just lost to — scoring just 91 points in a 21-point blowout home loss. Next up for Miami, it’s an Atlanta Hawks team that knows nothing else but scoring the basketball. Could this be an opportunity to turn things around?

As expected, the return of Trae Young hasn’t yielded any positives for the Hawks. The more I see them struggle with him in the lineup, the more I am convinced they will be parting ways before the trade deadline hits. The last 4 games have seen the Hawks allow 125.8 points per 100 possessions, that’s the 2nd-lowest defensive efficiency in the entire NBA. Despite Jalen Johnson being a nightly threat for a triple-double, no effort on the defensive end means that the Hawks could be on the losing end in most games.

These two teams have won a combined 4 games over their last 20 outings, which makes getting a read on this game very difficult. However, if I had to pick, I’d still opt for backing the point total to go over. Six of Atlanta’s last 8 games have cashed on the over, including just a couple of games ago when we saw them allow 152 points against the Chicago Bulls in regulation. The Heat can still score, they just need an opponent that struggles on defense for that to happen, and Atlanta is the ideal team in that aspect. I’m taking the over.

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Predictions: Over 245.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Just when we thought the 76ers had turned things around, they find a new way to disappoint us. On Tuesday, they lost at home to the Brooklyn Nets 114-106, and their MVP Joel Embiid once again went down with a knee injury. It’s been that kind of a season for the big man; this latest setback likely means we won’t see him for a while. Philly now turns its focus to Chicago, looking to avenge a 2-point defeat from earlier in the season. Once upon a time, this was a very one-sided affair with Philly winning 12 games in a row. Since then, the Sixers have lost 7 of 11, including the last 3 meetings.

This Bulls team has either been really good or really bad this season, there’s no in between. Right now, they’ve connected 4 wins in a row, beating both the Cavs and Hawks twice. One might say that’s a favorable schedule, but at this point, Bulls fans will take anything for their team to win games and stay relevant.  The 14-15 SU record has them sitting 10th in the East, which is just around what we’re used to seeing from them almost every year. This team plays a very similar style to the Atlanta Hawks, meaning they don’t care all that much about defense but can put up a large number of points in a very short amount of time.

This has been a low-scoring series over the last 10 meetings between these teams. The over/under is 1-9 during that stretch with 215.1 points scored on average. The oddsmakers are very ambitious when it comes to scoring here, setting the projected total to 239.5 points — which is a lot considering those aforementioned numbers. The under has also cashed in 5 straight meetings at the United Center and in Chicago’s last 6 home games overall. For Philly, the under is 6-3 in its last 9 games overall and 4-2 in their last 6 vs East opponents. The data indicates a somewhat lower-scoring game coming our way here, so let’s back the under.

76ers vs Bulls Predictions: Under 239.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The day after Christmas will feature an East versus West matchup when the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Memphis Grizzlies. The Bucks have a record of 12-18 and are only 4-10 on the road. Milwaukee has lost 3 of its last 4 games, but the Bucks did win their last game against the Indiana Pacers 111-94. Kevin Porter Jr. led the team with 24 points and 5 assists, and the Bucks held their opponent to 41% shooting and 26% from three.

The Grizzlies have a record of 14-16 and a home record of 6-8. Memphis has lost 2 of their its 3 games, but they are coming off a 137-128 win over the Utah Jazz. Santi Aldama led the Grizzlies in scoring with 37 points. It is the second time Aldama has scored 37 points in his last 3 games. He also scored 37 against the Washington Wizards on December 20th. 

Both the Bucks and the Grizzlies are trying to work their way back to .500 in spite of some key injuries on both sides. Giannis Antetokounmpo is getting closer to making his return to the floor, but he will miss another game tonight. The Grizzlies will be without Zach Edey, Ty Jerome, Brandon Clarke, and Vince Williams Jr. tonight. Ja Morant is still listed as questionable to return from an ankle injury tonight. With injuries to their top players, each team has needed their younger talent to step up. The Bucks have found a duo of scoring guards with Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins. The pair is averaging a combined 37.6 points per game this season. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have seen Aldama step up. In his last game, Aldama hit a career-best 7 threes against Utah. They also benefitted from 18 points from GG Jackson II in his first start of the season after being called up from the G League. With Bobby Portis and Myles Turner being able to match up against Jaren Jackson Jr. and Aldama, I don’t see any advantage that either team has over the other. I will side with the Bucks and the points. 

Bucks vs Grizzlies prediction: Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Phoenix Suns enter this matchup with a clear offensive edge and recent head to head success against New Orleans. In their earlier meeting this season, Phoenix dominated in a 121–98 win, shooting efficiently from both the field and beyond the arc while controlling tempo throughout. Devin Booker continues to anchor the offense, averaging around 25 points per game with strong playmaking, and Phoenix’s ability to execute in the half court gives them a steady scoring base even when pace slows. Their balanced attack and shooting efficiency make them difficult to defend for extended stretches.

The Pelicans, meanwhile, have shown improvement recently, particularly at home, where Zion Williamson has been in strong form and Trey Murphy has provided consistent perimeter scoring. However, New Orleans has struggled to carry that momentum on the road, where defensive lapses and offensive inconsistency have been recurring issues. Against a disciplined Phoenix team that limits mistakes and capitalizes on scoring runs, those weaknesses are magnified. With the Suns’ offensive reliability and prior dominance in the matchup, Phoenix is well positioned to cover.

Suns vs Pelicans Prediction: Suns -5.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.0

The Utah Jazz have been in very high-scoring games of late, with each of their last 6 contests clearing the combined 244-point mark. They will be welcoming a team in the Detroit Pistons tonight, which ranks in the top 10 of the NBA in points per game this season. Considering that the hosts are bottom of the league in defensive rating over the last 10 games, look for the visitors to be able to continue their hot scoring start. The Jazz should be more than capable of doing their part too, being 6th in the NBA in offensive rating during that stretch of games. They will be helped by the fact that they are also 6th during that time in 3-point percentage. With Lauri Markannen due to return to the lineup, do not expect a drop off in efficiency from them here.

Since the injury to Walker Kessler, the host have had real issues closing out defensive possessions. As a result they have been just 24th this season in opponent second chance points per game. Going up against Jalen Duren, who is in the top 5 of players who have played at least 10 games this season in second chance points per game, should prove to be a challenge for the hosts. With the Jazz 3rd in pace over the last 10 games, there should prove to be more than enough possessions for the Pistons to really rack up those second chance points. The visitors are 3rd in fast break points per game during that stretch themselves and should contribute to a higher tempo in this contest. Back the over as a result.

Pistons vs Jazz prediction: Over 243.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to over 245.

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The Los Angeles Clippers have generally controlled this matchup, including a 114-107 win over Portland earlier this season behind a dominant 30-point, 10-rebound performance from Kawhi Leonard. However, this Clippers team has struggled to find consistency, sitting near the bottom of the Western Conference and frequently relying on late game execution to secure wins. The absence of Ivica Zubac looms large, as his 15+ points and double digit rebounding presence have been difficult to replace, leaving the Clippers vulnerable on the glass and in interior defense.

Portland comes in playing some of its best basketball of the season, riding a three-game winning streak and showing improved ball movement and energy. Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe have shouldered the offensive load recently, combining scoring with playmaking and rebounding to keep games competitive. While the Blazers remain thin due to injuries across the rotation, they’ve consistently fought in tight games and shown the ability to stay within one possession late. With the Clippers still searching for rhythm and missing key pieces, this shapes up as a close contest where Portland’s effort and recent momentum makes the Blazers an attractive play.

Clippers vs Trail Blazers Prediction: Trail Blazers +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Moneyline