NBA Picks

The Phoenix Suns wrap up a quick two-game trip to Houston and Memphis. The Suns are looking to bounce back after a 100-97 loss in Houston, although the Suns were able to grab the cover as an 8.5-point underdog. The Suns have covered three in a row, while going 9-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 10 outings. The good news is that the Suns are relatively healthy, too, with only Jalen Green (hamstring) still out, and Jamaree Bouyea, a reserve, in the concussion protocol. Still, Phoenix is playing well lately, and it has been a cover king for bettors.

The Memphis Grizzlies just played Tuesday, and now face the difficult turnaround. The good news is that the Grizzlies were able to sleep in their home beds, as last night’s game against the San Antonio Spurs, a 106-105 win, was also in the Forum. Memphis cashed as a 6-point underdog ast he Under (238.5) cashed, but the Grizz are just 2-3 ATS in the past 5 games, and 4-5 ATS in the previous nine outings. While Memphis has won six in a row in this series, as inexplicable as that is, Phoenix has ended up covering three in a row, including a 114-113 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog back on Oct. 29.

Suns -4.5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.

The Cleveland Cavaliers hit the road for the short jaunt over to Indianapolis to face the skidding Pacers. Indiana has dropped 12 consecutive games since its last win Dec. 8 against the Sacramento Kings. The Pacers have allowed at least 123 points in five of the past six games, too, cashing the Over at a 5-1 clip in the six-game span, in case you’re a same-game parlay bettor. We’re focusing on the side, however. Indiana is just 2-7 against the spread in the past 9 games, and 3-0 ATS in the past 12-game losing streak, too. Indiana lost 135-119 at home on Dec. 1 in the most recent meeting with Cleveland, as the Over cashed in that game as well.

The Cavs were toppled 114-110 against the visiting Detroit Pistons last time out on Sunday, snapping a three-game win and cover streak. The Under has cashed in four of the past five games for the Cavaliers, a stark contrast to the Pacers’ total trends. Cleveland looks like a great play on paper, but keep in mind that Jarrett Allen is under the weather, and he carries a questionable tag, while leading scorer Donovan Mitchell is sidelined for this one with a scheduled day of rest. If Allen doesn’t play, and the Cavs are down two starters, Indiana might not win, but it should keep it close. Still, based on Indiana’s giving ways, allowing 123+ in five of the past six games, let’s go with the Over.

Cavaliers vs Pacers prediction: Over 235.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 237.

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The Orlando Magic hit the road for the nation’s capital to tangle with the Washington Wizards. Orlando picked up a 135-127 victory as a 6-point favorite as the Over (228.5) cashed in a win over the Indiana Pacers. The Magic have alternated outright wins and losses across the past 10 games since Dec. 18. However, Orlando hasn’t been ticking off covers, going just 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in the past four games, and 4-12 ATS across the past 16 outings. And, while the Over has cashed in two in a row, the Under has a 5-3 edge in the past eight games. Orlando is also missing both Fs Franz and Moritz Wagner, as well as G Jalen Suggs.

The Washington Wizards are coming off an embarrassing 141-115 loss at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves as the Over cashed, but lately, the total going high is a rarity. Washington had cashed low in each of the previous four outings. In fact, the defense had allowed 117 or fewer points in the five previous games before Minnesota’s 141-point outburst. Still, playing an Under with the Wizards is viewed as extremely risky business, but the Magic are beaten up right now, and it’s hard to envision where the scoring is going to come from, so stay low.

Magic vs Wizards prediction: Under 234 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 232.5.

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LeBron James once again turned back the clock and reminded us that he still has something left in the tank, as he scored 31 and 26 points vs the Memphis Grizzlies helping the Lakers sweep the mini 2-game homestand against them. Now LA heads to New Orleans for a date with the Pelicans, hoping they can get another solid performance from their aging superstar as they continue life without a couple really important pieces. Gabe Vincent, Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves are all sidelined with injuries, normally that’d be a huge hit to a team’s offensive production, but when you have a player like Luka Doncic you can overcome situations like these.

The Pelicans don’t have a player like that on their roster and their recent run of 7 defeats in a row reflects that. After that surprising 5-game win streak in mid-December it’s been all downhill for this team, teams are just scoring at will against them and they just aren’t capable of getting stops. In only one of those defeats they kept an opponent under 120 points, while offensively they’re averaging just 114 per game which is the 6th lowest mark in the NBA. On top of all that they’ve also been very unreliable from a bettors’ perspective, covering just once in 7 games.

This is a match-up that’s been long dominated by the team in purple and gold. The Lakers have won the last 8 meetings and have covered in 9 of 12 against the Pels. The Lakers also 5-1 in 6 visits to the Smoothie King Center, so anything but a convincing win for LA shouldn’t come into question here.

Lakers vs Pelicans prediction: Lakers -5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Miami Heat enter this non conference matchup as sizable underdogs, but the gap between these teams is far smaller than the spread suggests. Miami has quietly been one of the league’s more reliable betting teams, going 10-6 ATS on the road and 12-6 ATS as underdogs this season. On the floor, the Heat continue to lean on Norman Powell, quietly becoming one of the more underrated players in the game (24.4 ppg). Bam Adebayo remains the anchor defensively and a steady offensive option at roughly 17 points and 5 rebounds per game, giving Miami a consistent interior presence. Tyler Herro’s perimeter scoring adds another layer, however, he is still battling injury and will not suit up again tonight. Miami’s ability to slow tempo, defend the half court, and execute late makes them particularly dangerous catching points.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has the talent to win comfortably but continues to be overvalued in certain spots. Despite strong defensive metrics and elite top end talent, the Timberwolves have struggled against the number in non-conference games, going 17-25 ATS (40.5%) dating back to the start of last season. Anthony Edwards leads the Wolves at roughly 29.4 points per game, and Julius Randle has stepped up massively this year as the second scoring option, but Minnesota’s offense can stagnate when opponents force them into half court execution. That plays directly into Miami’s strengths. While the Timberwolves are capable of building runs at home, they’ve often failed to fully separate against disciplined teams that limit transition chances. Ultimately, the line feels far too big given how even these teams actually match up.

Heat vs Timberwolves prediction: Heat +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

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The Dallas Mavericks hit the road for the capital of the Golden State to battle the Sacramento Kings. These teams have met once before this season, also at the Golden 1 Center, and the Kings posted a 113-107 win as a 1.5-point underdog on Dec. 27 as the Under (235.5) cashed. In that game, Gs Keon Ellis and Russell Westbrook went off for 21 points apiece, while C Maxime Raynaud was good for 19 points, 6 rebounds and 2 blocks. The Kings have dropped five in a row, though, while failing to cover the past five games, too. The last win for Sacramento was that win over Dallas.

For the Mavs, they remain without Kyrie Irving, Dante Exum and Dereck Lively II, and P.J. Washington is also doubtful to play due to an ankle injury. Dallas has just a single win in the past five games, while covering only once in that span, too. This is a rare opportunity for the Kings to get a much-needed victory, especially on their home court. Look for Sacramento to at least keep it within three buckets, if not win out right. But, tread lightly, as neither team has been hot against the number lately.

Kings +5 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable at that number.