NBA Picks

Following Wednesday night’s second-half collapse in their gut-wrenching 105-104 road loss to the 76ers, the Miami Heat look to salvage their playoff hopes in a win-or-go-home matchup against the ninth-seeded Bulls. Miami’s chances of earning the Eastern Conference’s No. 8 seed took a massive hit with star wing Jimmy Butler suffering an MCL injury that’s expected to sideline him for several weeks. For a Heat bunch that already faces an uphill battle offensively – ranking a lowly 21st in offensive rating – losing a reliable bucket-getter like Butler appears to be a near-impossible hurdle to overcome. As a result, I lean towards backing the Bulls as slight road underdogs to pull off a victory and claim the East’s No. 8 seed.

Chicago has its own injury concerns with Alex Caruso (ankle), Ayo Dosunmu (quad), and Andre Drummond (ankle) listed as questionable. However, expect all three players to suit up for this win-or-go-home matchup.

While the Heat’s reliable defense is capable of keeping them in striking distance, the Bulls ride into Friday night’s game fresh off an uber-efficient offensive showing in their 131-116 win over the Hawks. Guard Coby White exploded for a game-high 42 points, and the team connected on a whopping 43 percent of their three-point attempts. With the Bulls boasting the stronger offense heading into Friday night, I like Chicago to go into Miami and claim the East’s No. 8 seed.

Bulls moneyline (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

A Bulls win has plenty of correlation in this game going over the total of 205.5. Their offense figures to be the difference-maker, the key that unlocks a higher score. Let’s not sugarcoat it, the Bulls are stepping up in class – facing Miami’s defense, the Association’s fifth-best unit, is a far cry from the lowly 27th-ranked Hawks. But the depressed over/under of 205.5 already seems to be factoring in a lower-scoring showdown.

Sure, Miami’s defense did its’ thing in the first half of Wednesday’s Play-In game, but Philly made the necessary adjustments in the second half to solve their zone. Expect the Bulls to follow that same blueprint, pushing the pace in transition whenever possible to consistently attack the rim and open up the floor for themselves. It’s tough to envision another 40-plus percent showing from three-point range, but the Bulls have shown they have capable floor spacers who can knock down a respectable number of threes to help this game go over the total.

Over 205.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

After an impressive 24-point win over the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday night, the Sacramento Kings will need to win one more game over the Pelicans in New Orleans on Friday in order to advance to the first round of the playoffs, where the Oklahoma City Thunder patiently wait on the winner. For the Pelicans, they’ll look to bounce back after not only losing their play-in game against the Lakers, but also losing star player Zion Williamson who exited Tuesday’s game late in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury. Williamson will not be available on Friday and is set to be reevaluated in two weeks. Prior to leaving Tuesday’s game, Williamson made a major impact, scoring a game high 40 points to go along with 11 rebounds and 5 assists.

With the absence of Williamson now known, the point spread for this game has shifted from the Pelicans opening as 2-point home favorites to currently being listed at 1.5-point underdogs. Despite the absence of Williamson, I’m confident the Pelicans won’t only cover the spread, but win this game outright. New Orleans boasts an NBA best 20-11-1 record ATS as underdogs this season, winning 18 of those 32 games outright. Coincidentally – or not – the Pelicans have been underdogs each of the 5 times they’ve gone up against the Kings this season but still managed to go a perfect 5-0 SU, with 4 of the 5 wins coming by at least 10 points. If Williamson’s absence appears to be too big of an issue, I’d direct your attention to the Pels’ 133-100 win over a healthy Kings’ team on January 7 as Williamson sat out with a right quad contusion.

Pelicans ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to (-110).

Despite the Suns’ dominance in the regular season against Minnesota, I feel like this 1st Round series between the two teams will go the distance. Winning back-to-back games will be tough for either side, but the importance of Game 1 is way more significant for the home team than it is for Phoenix. The Suns just dominated the T’Wolves 5 days ago with a 125-106 win, winning for the 3rd time against them this season and for the 10th time in 11 meetings. Phoenix has also covered the spread in 9 straight head-to-head, plus they’re 8-1 ATS in their last 9 visits to Target Center.

After hearing all those stats that favor the Suns, why would someone even consider Minnesota here? Well, playoffs are a different animal. Minnesota worked really hard to get to where the ended the regular season, despite finishing 3rd in the West they are still overlooked by many people. At home the Timberwolves have 30 wins in 41 games, plus only the Celtics and Thunder have a better Net Rating in home games this season. This is the coming out party for Anthony Edwards as well, the Suns were able to shut him down in the 3 regular season meetings, so there’s a huge chip on his shoulder to do well here.

Look, there’s a reason why Minnesota finished 3rd and that’s their defense. They’ve held opponents to 108.4 points per 100 possessions this season, the gap between them and the 2nd best team (Boston) is 2.2 points, which is also the difference between the 2nd and 10th best teams on that list. I’ll take the Timberwolves to open the postseason with a home win here.

Timberwolves -1.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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between the two teams was on the night where both teams finished under 100 points, which means a slower paced game should in theory benefit Minnesota. I’m expecting the likes of Rudy Gobert to clog up the paint, the officiating will be different because this is the postseason. Backing the under has been profitable in 13 of the last 16 Suns games and in 22 of 41 Minnesota home games this season. Pace wise the two teams ranked 16th and 21st in possessions per game over their last 10 regular season outings. With them also ranking 10th and 12th in defensive efficiency during that period, I think backing the under to start off the series is the way to go here.

Under 214.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

If there was one match-up we were all hoping to get in Round 1, it was the one between the Pacers and Bucks. There’s history between the two teams, tempers flared during the regular season and Indiana dominated the proceedings with 4 wins in 5 games. That said, the last meeting between the two teams was back in January and a lot has happened since. Indiana actually enters game 1 as a 1.5 point favorite, they’ve looked really solid to close out the regular season with 6 wins in 8 games. Tyrese Haliburton has picked it up, he is not yet the player he was before his hamstring injury, but he is getting there.

Milwaukee’s troubles started with the hire of Doc Rivers. Since he took over, they are barely a .500 team and to make matters worse they also lost Giannis Antetokounmpo to a calf injury which could force him to miss at least the first couple of games of this series. Damian Lillard is also battling groin and abductor injuries, he did not practice with the team Tuesday or Wednesday and is a game time decision for Game 1. This is looking more and more like last year’s series vs Miami and we all remember how that ended. Milwaukee lost back-to-back games to end the regular season, which caused them to fall down to the 3rd seed.

Indiana will steal one of the first two games in this series, the question is which one? Catching the Bucks by surprise in Game 1 could be the way to go. The Pacers are likely going to push the tempo, I don’t think a injury riddled Bucks team can keep up. I’ll take the Pacers to cause the upset and open the series with a win.

Pacers -1 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Come playoff time teams usually focus more on the defensive side of the ball, but I don’t think that’ll be the case with the Pacers. This team just isn’t equipped to get any stops whatsoever, but the good news is they more than make up for it on the offensive end. Indy finished the regular season averaging 102.1 possessions per game, the 2nd highest mark in the league. They were also 2nd to only the Boston Celtics in offensive efficiency, averaging 120.5 points per 100 possessions. Milwaukee is no slouch either when it comes to scoring. They ranked 6th this season in offensive efficiency, even without Giannis they posted a 117.2 offensive rating in 9 games played which would rank 8th overall this season. The hire of Doc Rivers didn’t have the effect they were hoping for on defense and I think that could cost them in this series. I’ll take the over in Game 1.

Over 232.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.