College basketball fans will be treated to a national championship rematch on Friday night when the defending-champion Michigan Wolverines and UConn Huskies battle it out at the home of the Boston Celtics – the TD Garden. That said, things will look quite different this time around given how much roster turnover there has been on both teams, as well as Michigan’s coach departing for the Dallas Mavericks vacancy.
Both teams will be led by their veteran back courts, and while the Huskies have more proven Division I depth on paper, laying three possessions worth of points with the Huskies seems like a leap of faith rather than a prudent wager. UConn’s 40-point win over Gardner-Webb doesn’t really mean much, but it doesn’t necessarily look good that they shot just 31% from deep on 29 attempts and made only 62.5% of their free throws. Not that Michigan was much better shooting in their first game, but that just highlights how even these teams seem to be on paper outside UConn’s depth. It's hard to separate when you don't shoot well, and Michigan's defense is unlikely to make it any easier.
Michigan has the firepower and veteran leadership in the back court to keep this game close, and the Wolverines have plenty of size in the front court with transfers JP Estrella, Moustapha Thiam and Jalen Reed, as well as freshman Quinn Costello, to compete on the glass and deter shots around the rim. I need to see more from UConn to crown them as worthy of a three-possession favorite on a not-so-neutral court, especially with so many moving pieces on both rosters.
Michigan vs UConn prediction: Michigan Wolverines +7.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +7.
