Northern Iowa Panthers vs St. John's Red Storm Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 03/20/26

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After a long and eventful regular season and the chaos of Championship Week, the best time of year is finally here. March Madness has arrived and with it comes a plethora of games for us to dig into over the course of a couple of action-packed days. For my money, Friday’s slate has some of the most intriguing matchups of the Round of 64, and that includes a game between Northern Iowa and St. John’s from San Diego, California. The Panthers are the champions of the Missouri Valley — a conference that typically acquits itself very well in March — while St. John’s emerged as the champions of a very weak Big East conference. Both teams have played well entering this week, but which side will survive and advance to the weekend?

Northern Iowa has been in this spot before, and this program is no stranger to springing upsets in March. This year’s version of the Panthers is a veteran bunch that is led by its defense, which is ranked 24th nationally in adjusted efficiency per KenPom. While they did have some growing pains earlier in the season, Ben Jacobson’s group has won 10 of its last 13 games dating back to January 31. Not only are the Panthers playing at a top 40 level nationally over the last 6 weeks, but they’ve been able to do that while opponents are still making a higher than average number of threes against them. With that in mind, a bit of positive regression is still in order for what has been an elite perimeter defense this season (3rd in 3-point percentage allowed per BartTorvik). On offense, Northern Iowa is extremely comfortable playing at a deliberate pace, as the Panthers are ranked 364th in adjusted tempo and consistently look to grind out quality shots late in the clock. That bodes well for an underdog in a tournament setting, as teams that shorten the game and put a massive emphasis on each possession generally keep their games close against higher-seeded opponents. A year ago, a Drake team that played at a slow pace was able to knock off Missouri, so there’s certainly precedent for a Missouri Valley team to spring an upset over a power conference opponent by following a similar script.

As for the higher seed, St. John’s has been playing some of its best basketball over the last few weeks, but it’s worth mentioning that most of those performances have come against pretty poor competition in what was a lousy Big East this season. Furthermore, the Red Storm have struggled mightily on offense all season long, with Rick Pitino’s team sitting at 191st in effective field goal percentage, 187th in 2-point percentage and a whopping 214th in 3-point percentage (BartTorvik). That doesn’t bode well against an excellent Panthers defense that is fundamentally sound and won’t commit fouls to bail St. John’s out of bad possessions. If the Red Storm are not able to get out in transition and generate easy buckets, it could be a long day for this extremely inconsistent offense. All things considered, this has all the makings of a defensive struggle, so I’ll grab the points with Northern Iowa now that the Panthers are catching double digits.

Northern Iowa vs St. John’s prediction: Northern Iowa +10.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +9.5