Alabama Crimson Tide vs Tennessee Volunteers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/28/26

Winners of 7 straight, the Alabama Crimson Tide take the nation’s 6th-longest active win streak into Knoxville, seeking revenge against the Tennessee Volunteers. When these teams met in Tuscaloosa at the end of January, the Vols took care of business against the shorthanded Tide, controlling the glass and limiting the Tide to just 6-of-26 from distance without Amari Allen and Aden Holloway – Alabama’s 2 best perimeter shooters. This time around, Alabama should have their full complement of players, as Labaron Philon is expected to return following a 1-game absence. 

The Volunteers return home after a loss at Missouri on Tuesday, a game in which they turned the ball over 15 times, connected on fewer than 30% of perimeter attempts and shot just 57% from the free throw line. Tennessee grabbed 18 offensive rebounds and Missouri made just 4 threes in that contest, so the opportunity was there for the Volunteers to steal a road victory despite a poor showing.

Sporting the highest three-point rate in the country, Alabama is the king of variance. If the Tide are hitting their perimeter shots, they are unbeatable. Conversely, if they make fewer than 10 threes like they did in the first meeting with Tennessee, they’re vulnerable against almost anyone. Fortunately for the Tide, they’re going to have plenty of opportunities to regress back to the mean against Tennessee on Saturday, as the Vols are 329th nationally and dead last in the SEC in three-point rate allowed. 

With Allen and Holloway involved this time around, I’m expecting a more efficient shooting performance from Alabama, who has connected on 39.2% of perimeter attempts since February 1st. In that same span, Tennessee is 257th in effective field goal percentage and 330th in three-point rate, so if the Tide get hot, it may be difficult for the Vols to consistently respond. Not to mention, Tennessee has the worst turnover rate and the 3rd-worst free throw percentage in the SEC, which are worrisome metrics for bettors laying points with any favorite, let alone one playing an Alabama team that doesn’t turn the ball over and has shooting upside from anywhere in the gym.

Alabama vs Tennessee prediction: Alabama Crimson Tide +4.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.5. 

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