Alabama Crimson Tide vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds and Picks for Wednesday, 01/07/26

Wednesday’s game of the day will be played in Nashville when the Alabama Crimson Tide meet the Vanderbilt Commodores in a top-15 matchup at Memorial Gymnasium at 9:00 pm ET on ESPN2. The Tide enter this contest on a 4-game winning streak, and they have won 8 of their last 9 after their late-November loss to Gonzaga in the Players Era. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt is still going strong with its undefeated record at 14-0. The Commodores’ latest victory was a road win over South Carolina 83-71 despite not having the services of Duke Miles and Frankie Collins. ‘Bama and Vandy met just once last year in what resulted in a 103-87 Alabama win in Tuscaloosa. 

This total is extremely high, but all of Alabama’s totals are high because of the pace at which the Tide play. They are 13th in adjusted tempo and 9th in average possession length (KenPom), and they pair that with the 3rd-highest three-point rate in the country, as nearly 54% of their shot attempts come from beyond the arc. Alabama’s defense is solid, but it’s nothing special, and there’s a chance Aiden Sherrell — one of the best shot-blockers in the country — misses this game with a knee issue. His absence would be a blow to Alabama’s interior defense and would force the Tide to be even more perimeter-oriented offensively. 

Like Alabama, Vanderbilt loves to play fast and efficiently while shooting a ton of threes. The Commodores reside in the top 45 in both adjusted tempo and average possession length, and they are top-5 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, seventh in effective field-goal percentage and shoot over 45% of their shots from distance. Their defense grades a bit better than Alabama’s, but that could be a product of playing the 80th-ranked offensive strength of schedule compared to Alabama’s #1 mark in that metric. The 93 points surrendered to UCF early in the year highlights that fast, efficient offenses can score on the ‘Dores. I’m fully expecting this to be a barnburner with a ton of transition opportunities that will make your head go side to side like you’re watching a tennis match and so many 3-point attempts that you will wonder if the 2-point shot even exists anymore. The total is high for a reason; let’s take the over. 

Alabama vs Vanderbilt prediction: Over 178.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 180.

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