Arizona Wildcats vs Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 01/31/26

The Arizona Wildcats flirted with disaster at BYU on Monday, but they were able to prevail 86-83 despite blowing a 19-point lead in the final 11 minutes of the game. The ‘Cats gave up 16 offensive rebounds and allowed the Cougars to make 13 three-point attempts, but they did enough elsewhere – particularly on the offensive end – to come away with the win, even if it was nervy. On Saturday, they will hit the road again, this time to play their rival Arizona State Sun Devils for the 2nd time in about two and a half weeks. Even as the home team, it’s a tough spot for the Sun Devils, who played and lost to UCF out in Orlando on Tuesday. Not only did they have to deal with the cross-country travel, but they have had 1 less day of rest compared to the Wildcats. 

When these teams first met at the McKale Center, Arizona State played very well, easily covering the +21.5 in what amounted to a 7-point loss. The Sun Devils scored 1.16 points per possession, shot 50% from two-point range and even connected on 44% of their perimeter attempts, all while turning the ball over just 9 times. Will they do that again on Saturday? I have a tough time seeing it. This ASU squad 10th out of 16 Big 12 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom), as well as 11th in three-point percentage and 14th in turnover rate. Not to mention, they are 15th in offensive rebounding rate allowed against conference opponents. In my eyes, Arizona State’s offensive performance in the first meeting was an outlier, so I’m expecting regression to the mean against what is graded as the most efficient defense in the conference and 3rd nationally.

Given how close ASU played Arizona in the first meeting, combined with Arizona almost blowing the BYU game, I’m expecting a fully-focused effort from the Wildcats in this spot. Not to mention the travel and rest advantage for the ‘Cats. It’s Arizona or nothing for me here.

Arizona vs Arizona State prediction: Arizona Wildcats -14 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -15.5.

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