Arizona Wildcats vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 02/09/26

It is a Big Monday in every sense, with a massive, must-see Big 12 showdown at Allen Fieldhouse between Arizona and Kansas tipping off at 9:00 pm ET on ESPN. Arizona comes into this contest with a perfect 23-0 record, most recently putting an absolute beating on the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday, 84-47. Meanwhile, Kansas has been one of the hottest teams in the country since its loss at West Virginia on January 10, rattling off 7 wins in a row – including Iowa State, BYU and Texas Tech. This will be the first of 2 regular-season meetings between these teams.

The Wildcats boast a top-10 offense from an efficiency standpoint, and they play with top-30 pace. However, I’m expecting the defenses to shine in what could be a lower-scoring affair than the odds suggest. In addition to their top-10 offense, the Wildcats are second nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom) and seventh in effective field-goal percentage allowed. Moreover, they lead the Big 12 in both of those metrics and they also surrender the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the conference.

As for the Jayhawks, they are equipped to slow down this Arizona offense. Against top-50 teams, they are in the 99th percentile in transition defense and 83rd percentile against rim attacks (Hoop-Explorer), in addition to thirrd nationally in mid-range percentage allowed (Haslametrics) — which are all huge defensive attributes against an Arizona defense that doesn’t shoot many threes. In fact, only 3 teams in the country have a lower 3-point rate than the Wildcats. Offensively, the Jayhawks are shooting close to 44% from distance in 3 top-50 home games and 41% in 6 top-100 games at the Phog — which is significantly above their season baseline. I expect that to regress against the length of Arizona’s defense. This has all the makings of a classic, but the total feels a little too high considering the perceived matchup advantages these defenses have. Of course, overtime is always a concern, but I’m taking a liking to the under in this one. 

Arizona vs Kansas prediction: Under 151.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 149.5. 

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